Barings

56
Baring Asset Management Limited 155 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3XY Tel +44 (0)20 7628 6000 Fax +44 (0)20 7638 7928 www.barings.com Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Baring High Yield Bond Fund Berlin Citywire November 2012 Ece Ugurtas – Director, Fixed Income & Currency
  • date post

    19-Oct-2014
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    1.389
  • download

    1

description

 

Transcript of Barings

Page 1: Barings

Baring AssetManagement Limited155 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3XY

Tel +44 (0)20 7628 6000Fax +44 (0)20 7638 7928

www.barings.com

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Berlin Citywire

November 2012

Ece Ugurtas – Director, Fixed Income & Currency

Page 2: Barings

2

Agenda

• Why Barings for High Yield?

• The Baring High Yield Bond Fund

• Investment case for the asset class

• Macroeconomic Environment

Page 3: Barings

3

Why Barings for High YieldSection 1

Page 4: Barings

4

Baring Asset Management

• An international investment management company with a history dating back to 1762

• Operating in eleven countries with professionals from twenty five different nations

• Providing investment management services in emerging and inefficient markets, asset allocation and specialist fixed income to investors worldwide

• Working in partnership with many of the world’s largest financial institutions

• Owned by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual)

• Current assets under management US$50.7 bn

• 96 investment professionals

• Winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise: International Trade 2010

London, Boston, Dubai, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Paris, San Francisco, Santiago, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo, Toronto

Assets as at 30 September 2012, Investment Professionals as at 1 October 2012

Page 5: Barings

5

Fixed Income at Baring Asset Management

• US$17.1 billion Fixed Income AUM: US$6.3bn in Global Fixed mandates

• 33.7% of firm’s total AUM

• Strong track record of managing fixed income portfolios for over 25 years

– Investment managers average 19 years’ experience

• Three main business lines:

– Global Government and Global Aggregate mandates

– High Yield

– EMD mandates

Source: Barings, assets as of 30 September 2012

An experienced and successful team

Page 6: Barings

6

How are we different?

• We have a unique TOP DOWN scenario based approach to managing high yield

• We are NOT a bottom up pure credit selection fund

• We invest in GLOBAL high yield: European, US and Emerging Market high yield corporates

• We COMBINE top down with bottom up conducting our own individual bottom up credit analysis

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 7: Barings

7

Our Investment Philosophy

• We believe macroeconomic factors are the primary market drivers

• We believe that markets are weakly efficient

– in the medium to long term macro economic factors determine market levels

– volatility in the short term is caused by investors positioning for a variety of outcomes

• We avoid single point forecasts

– we forecast different macro economic scenarios

• Bottom up credit analysis is essential to extract value from idiosyncratic nature of highyield bonds

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 8: Barings

8

Investment Process Overview

Scenario process highlights attractive US vs Euro vs EM HY, rating buckets

Which sectors?

Fundamental bottom up credit analysis

Risk management & execution

Portfolio of 150-170 names

Names monitored daily by Credit Team

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 9: Barings

9

Our Scenario Process is Different

• “What is already discounted in current market prices?”

• “How could the world look like in a year from now?”– potential shocks to the current market consensus that could occur from here

• 3 scenarios with a probability threshold of 10-15%

• Each scenario is populated with macroeconomic forecasts

– GDP, inflation, current account, budget balance for a variety of developed and emerging markets

• Forecasts are attached to those scenarios

– credit spreads, swap spreads, bond yields, currencies

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 10: Barings

10

Current Scenarios

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Stabilisation of Global Growth

Fiscal Slippage, Inflation Risks

Financial Contagion Hits Growth

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 11: Barings

11

Current Scenarios

The initial pace of US recovery falls back under the onset of fiscal tightening and the retrenchment within the private sector.

Growth remains at close to trend in core-Europe, whilst growth in the peripheral European economies remains weak. Fiscal retrenchment in the peripheral European countries does continue but not in a manner that threatens popular support for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains an accommodative monetary stance.

US bond yields rise relative to those in Europe and Japan.

Stabilisation of Global GrowthScenario 1

Global monetary policy remains very accommodative across all developed markets to counter the effects of fiscal consolidation.

Governments struggle to maintain their fiscal plans amidst disappointing growth outcomes. This leads to a deterioration in risk premia especially in those markets where central bank authorities do not engage in large scale asset purchases.

Emerging markets decouple in terms of economic outcomes – healthier growth & improving fundamentals.

Fiscal Slippage, Inflation RisksScenario 2

The shock effects of financial market contagion from a default within the European periphery send the world into a recession. Demand constrained economies suffer a modest deflation.

Global bond yields fall, albeit real yields rise, as aggressive and sustained monetary policy easing ensues. Further measures of Quantitative Easing are put in place. Credit creation processes are disrupted and risk asset performance is heavily prejudiced.

Commodity currencies suffer substantially. The Chinese abandon their commitment to CNY appreciation.

Financial Contagion Hits GrowthScenario 3

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 12: Barings

12

Global scenariosBond and currencies, October 2012

US 10 year EUR “BBB” rated USD HY “CCC” rated EUR / USD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

USD / JPY

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Current

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Source: Bloomberg; Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Acknowledging a number of possible market outcomes

Page 13: Barings

13

Fundamental Issuer Analysis: High Yield CorporateHow we research individual Companies

CREDIT WORTHINESS1 2 3 4 5

CORPORATE QUALITYA B C

EXAMPLESBASIC ENERGY 2B BUY

EUROPCAR 5B SELL

AGROKOR 3B HOLD

RISING FALLING

GOOD BAD

Industry

CompetitivePosition

Management / Strategy

OperationalCompetence

BUSINESSRISK

AnalystScore

AnalystScore

Policy

ProfitabilityCash Flow

CapitalStructure

FinancialFlexibility

FINANCIALRISK

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Identifying attractive issuers

Page 14: Barings

14

Fundamental Issuer Analysis: High Yield CorporateUnivision Communications

Pricing vs. Peers, Sector, RatingBAM rating

S&P/Moodys

Yield Spread (bps)

Univision 3B B+/B2 6.6% 505

TVN 3B B+/B1 6.2% 600

Allbritton 2B B+/B2 4.2% 395

Sinclair - B/B2 5.4% 375

US B Rated - - 6.4% 540

Geographically diversified, but

competitive market

Dominant market-leading position in domestic market

Aggressive management policy

High margins due to lower programme costs and

favourable TV contracts

BUSINESSRISK

UnivisionScore: 3BUnivisionScore: 3B

Highly leveraged as a

result of the LBO

Significant refinancing risk with large debt maturities

in 2017

Adj. DEBT to EBITDA ~ 11.4x;

Interest coverage ~ 1.6x

Adequate liquidity and positive FCF, with cash sources cover uses >1.2x

FINANCIALRISK

Source: Barings , October 2012

Weak credit metrics, albeit strong market position, profitability and growth

Page 15: Barings

15

Risk Controls

• Daily VAR reports

• Monthly portfolio analysis outlining returns across scenarios by market and rating

• Monthly risk report outlining risk contributions by geography, rating, sector and top 10 contributors to risk

• Monthly full liquidity analysis on credits trading below price 80

• Expensive List/Concern list

Page 16: Barings

16

The Baring High Yield Bond FundSection 2

Page 17: Barings

17

Baring High Yield Bond FundKey Characteristics

Guideline ranges Objective / Strategy• To produce a high level of income and long term capital appreciation 150-170 names• Top down combined with bottom up credit research• Focussed portfolio of best ideas in preferred sectors, ratings, markets• To outperform global high yield peer group

Risk management • Maximum active position per name 0.8/0.9%• No sector/ country limits • Max 10% CCC• ‘No default’ focused strategy• Portfolio is not constructed on single point forecast but required to be robust in at least 2 out of 3 scenarios

Minimum issue size • Liquid, active traded focus $400m & €350m

Turnover 60-70%

Page 18: Barings

18

Chart layoutsTwo charts to a page

Europe HY Spreads higher vs. US HY Default rates lower in Europe …

Source: Merrill Lynch, 12 September 2012

-5000

5001,0001,5002,0002,500

Aug-00 Aug-02 Aug-04 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-10 Aug-12

OAS

Euro HY Index US HY Index Difference

0

4

8

12

16

Apr-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Apr-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Apr-12

(%)

US Europe

… but Loan Market under greater stress

0

4

8

12

16

20

Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12

(%)

US Europe

Page 19: Barings

19

Where in HYMarket – US vs Europe Corporates

Gross leverage by rating Spread to government by rating

Source: Morgan Stanley, 7 September 2012, Bloomberg 15 October 2012

Europe generally less leveraged and cheaper vs. US

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

BB B CCC HY

EUR USD

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

BB B CCC HY

EUR USD

Page 20: Barings

20

Where in HYMarket – US vs Emerging Corporates

Net Leverage (x) Spread per turn of Net Leverage (bps/x)

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 25 September 2012

EM Corporates have LOWER leverageyet offer more spread

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

A

BBB

BB

B

EM Corporates US Corporates

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

A

BBB

BB

B

EM Corporates US Corporates

Page 21: Barings

21

Where in HYMost interest rate sensitive: higher rated BBs

Correlations to 5yr US Treasury by spread bucket

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11

0..300bp 300..400bp 400..500bp 500..600bp 600..700bp 700..1,000bp 1,00bp+

52wk Trailing Correl to 5yr Trsy

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 25 September 2012

B and CCC least interest rate sensitive but …

0..300bp

600..700bp

400..500bp

300..400bp

500..600bp700..1,000bp

1,00bp+

Page 22: Barings

22

Where in HY Risk/Return profile of BB-B superior to ‘CCC’ rated credit

• ‘BB’ and ‘B’ credit compared to ‘CCC/C’ tend to have significantly lower default rates• Variations in excess returns also lower

Source: S&P/Bloomberg, 31 March 2012, BofA Merrill Lynch/Bloomberg, 28 September 2012

‘BB-B’ credit; lower risk and lower return volatilityGlobal Corporate Default Rates (%) Excess return over 12 months (%)

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

120

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

BB-B CCC

0

10

20

30

40

50

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

BB B CCC/C

Long-term average

Page 23: Barings

23

Where in HYSectors

Source: Morgan Stanley, 16 October, 2012

HY Cash Spread vs. Gross Leverage

Deleveraging Sectors: Metals, Healthcare & Gaming

General IndustrialsRetail

Metals & Mining

Technology

Energy

Autos & PartsHealthcare

Telecom

Paper/PackagingMedia

Gaming/Leisure

Consumer Goods

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5

Median Gross Leverage

Median Spread (bp)

2Q12 2Q11

Page 24: Barings

24

31st October 2012Fund allocation by sector and credit rating

Source: Baring Asset Management: 31st October 2012. Credit Ratings show the highest rating between S&P and Moody’s. Source: Barings / customisedAllocations are subject to change

Fund Size: $1, 271.3 millionDuration: 3.5 yearsHoldings: 165

US HY51.8%

European HY

13.5%

UK HY4.2%

EMD HY18.4%

US Short Dated Govt

5.3%

Cash6.9%

Services14.1%

Energy12.5%

Cash6.9%

Basic Industry16.9%

Capital Goods3.8%

Other10.4%

Healthcare5.6%

UST s/d5.3%

Consumer Cyc6.6%

Media6.4%

Tech5.8%

Telecoms5.7%

BBB1.2%

BB27.6%

B52.1%

CCC8.9%

A-1 / AAA5.3%

Cash6.9%

By Sector

ByCredit Rating*

Page 25: Barings

25

Baring High Yield Bond FundAsset Allocation Changes

Source: Barings as at 30th September 2012*Includes Australia ^includes CLO

Active Asset Allocation Calls

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Q

2 20

09

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Cash

EM Government Bonds

US HY

EM HY*

European HY

Page 26: Barings

26

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Performance 30th September 2012

Source: Morningstar / Barings, to 30th September 2012 Fund Performance is in US Dollars on a NAV per unit basis, withgross income reinvested, Net of fees. Inception July 1993.* Morningstar GIFS Fixed Income Global High Yield Peer Group - Customised Peer Group

Past performance is not a guide to future performance

14.2

20.4

10.9

6.98.0

11.5

17.7

10.7

6.48.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

YTD 2012 1 Year 3 years (ann.) 5 years (ann.) 10 Years (ann.)

(%)

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Peer Group Median*

Page 27: Barings

27

Why Barings for High Yield?

• GLOBAL high yield offering

• Distinct TOP DOWN scenario based approach

• Combined with focussed bottom up credit selection

• Proven investment track record

Source: Baring Asset Management, October 2012

Page 28: Barings

28

Investment case for asset class Section 3

Page 29: Barings

29

The Investment Case for High Yield Key Considerations

1. Balance sheets healthy, default rates low, leverage manageable

2. Supportive macro environment: growth recovery to ensure default rates stay low, corporate earnings grow BUT not too strong that corporates return to “equity friendly” behaviour

3. Low global interest rates for longer to intensify the search for “yield”

HY remains attractive based on strong fundamentals, valuations and technical factors

Page 30: Barings

30

FundamentalsLeverage remains low & Comfortable Coverage1

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch/Bloomberg 30 June 2012

Corporates have been deleveragingStrong Interest coverage Ratios

Net Leverage(Net Debt/LTM EBITDA, x)

Interest Coverage(LTM EBITDA/Net LTM Interest Expense, x)

2.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.14.34.5

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Leverage Ratio Average Leverage (3.6x)

2.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.84.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

CoverageRatio Average Coverage (3.3x)

Page 31: Barings

31

FundamentalsMargins high, Cash on Balance Sheet high1

Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg 22 October 2012

Margins at highest levels High cash on balance sheets

LTM EBITDA Margins Global HY Cash/DebtCash on balance sheet over total debt

17%

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(%)

10%

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(%)

Page 32: Barings

32

Fundamentals Low Default rates1

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 15 October 2012

Global Default Rates remain low & below long term average

Current Default Rate 2.6%Moodys projects 3.0% (Dec 2012) & S&P 3.3% (Dec 2012)

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

EM Europe US

0

5

10

15

Dec

-81

Dec

-83

Dec

-85

Dec

-87

Dec

-89

Dec

-91

Dec

-93

Dec

-95

Dec

-97

Dec

-99

Dec

-01

Dec

-03

Dec

-05

Dec

-07

Dec

-09

Dec

-11

Global Default Rate

Page 33: Barings

33

Fundamentals Record High Yield Issuance1

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research/Bloomberg, 15 October 2012

Record high issuance in last 3 years: mostly in B area,YTD 2012 $300bn

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

BB B CCC NR

Page 34: Barings

34

Fundamentals New Issuance1

Source: Morgan Stanley, 22 October 2012

Prudent management of balance sheets

Use of Proceeds mainly to Refinance Debt

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(%)

LBO Refinance Acquisition Dividend/Byback Other

Page 35: Barings

35

FundamentalsRefinancing not a near term concern1

Source: BoA/Merrill Lynch - Bloomberg, 15 October 2012

“Wall of Maturity” is being managed

United States Europe

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Maturities ($bn)

Bonds Loans

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bonds Loans

(€)

Page 36: Barings

36

ValuationRisk/Reward profile is compelling2

Source: JP Morgan, S&P, 1 October 2012

Still potential for credit spread tighteningas market mis-prices default rates

From the long term perspective, credit offers value

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Dec

-86

Dec

-88

Dec

-90

Dec

-92

Dec

-94

Dec

-96

Dec

-98

Dec

-00

Dec

-02

Dec

-04

Dec

-06

Dec

-08

Dec

-10

Default rate (%)

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000Spread to worst

High-yield default rate High-yield spreads

25-year average = 4.1%

25-year average = 586bp

High-yield spreads 608bp

High-yield defaults 2.6%

Page 37: Barings

37

ValuationSpreads still attractive on adjusted basis2

Source: Morgan Stanley & Bloomberg 5 September 2012

Adjusted Spread levels still elevated, HY still attractively valued

Leverage Adjusted Spreads Spread/(Net Debt/EBITDA)

HY Credit Spreads adjusted for Average Loss and Volatility(Spread – average historical loss / 12 month vol)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

(bp/%)

Asia EU US S&P 500 Average

100

1,000

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

(bp/x)

Asia HY SPL Europe HY SPL US HY SPL

Asia Median

US` Median

EU Median

Page 38: Barings

38

TechnicalsThe Fixed Income Menu3

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch/Bloomberg, 22 October 2012

Attractive on an ABSOLUTE & RELATIVE basis to other fixed income assets

Fixed Income Assets Yield

10yr US Treasury Bonds 1.8%

10yr European Government Bonds 1.6%

10yr UK Government Bonds 1.8%

US Investment Grade Corporate 2.8%

US Mortgage Bonds 1.3%

JPMorgan EMBI+ 4.6%

JPMorgan GBI EM Global Diversified 5.8%

OR …

US High Yield 6.1%

European High Yield 7.0%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12

Global High Yield BB-B (HW40)Global Broad Mkt Corp (GOBC) Global High Yield Index (HW00) Global Sovereign Broad Market Plus Index (GOPG)

Page 39: Barings

39

TechnicalsHigh Yield vs. Equities 3

Source: BoA Merrill Lynch, MSCI Barra, January 2003 - September 2012

High Yield offers better risk/returnprofile to equities

52 Week Rolling Volatilities 52 Week Rolling Average Returns

0%

15%

30%

45%

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

ML Global High Yield MSCI AC World

Jan-03 – Sept-12 Global High Yield MSCI All Country World

Return (%) 9.9 7.4

Volatility (%) 8.9 19.1

Return/Vol ratio 1.1 0.4

-50%

0%

50%

100%

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

ML Global High Yield MSCI AC World

Page 40: Barings

40

TechnicalsHow much do spreads need to widen for investor losses?

• HY has higher carry, lower duration offering cushion for investors

• Spreads would have to widen +600bps before “new” investors suffered losses

3

Source: Morgan Stanley 5 September 2012

Assumes time horizon to end of the year & includes last 4 months carry

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

(% of the new HY investors in losses)

Back up in yields (+bps)

1/2 of “new money”experience losses

Page 41: Barings

41

TechnicalsDemand for Yield

• Corporates are a source of inflows

• Almost 20% of market value of US, Europe and Asian Credit to investors in 2012

• EU Net supply already negative

Global Credit Net Supply vs. Market Size

Source: Morgan Stanley 5 September 2012Net Supply = Supply – coupon –calls-maturities

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

EUR HY EUR IG US HY US IG

2009 2012e

(%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EUR HY EUR IG US HY US IG Asia IG*

Coupon/Redemptions/Calls Supply

(%)

3

Page 42: Barings

42

The Investment Case for High Yield Key Considerations

1. Balance sheets healthy, default rates low, leverage manageable

2. Supportive macro environment: growth recovery to ensure default rates stay low, corporate earnings grow BUT not too strong that corporates return to “equity friendly” behaviour

3. Low global interest rates for longer to intensify the search for “yield”

HY remains attractive based on strong fundamentals, valuations and technical factors

Page 43: Barings

43

Macroeconomic EnvironmentSection 4

Page 44: Barings

44

The Macro Environment

• The market environment has been volatile and remains dominated by political risks

• “The Fiscal Cliff” & the upcoming US elections

• Europe

– Is Greece staying or leaving?

– Can Europe find a powerful enough backstop to prevent a spill over to Spain and Italy?

• China

– A “soft”, a “rough” or a “hard” landing? And who will really know?

– What will be the implications for the rest of Asia and Australia?

How much more global policy accommodation will there be?What will be the effects on bond yields and inflation and will it keep growth going?

Page 45: Barings

45

EuropeECB buys time for fiscal adjustment

• The Spanish unemployment rate has risen to 24.4% and Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is now above 120%. In July Spanish 10 year debt yielded over 7% as markets lost confidence in its ability to finance itself.

• The ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) have bought time for Spain and Italy, they may agree to purchase their short dated debt if they enter a bailout program and adhere to its conditionality.

Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg (Sept 2012)

Developed market debt continuesto increase relative to GDP

Creating volatility in vulnerable countries

Italy

Spain

France

JapanGermanyAustraliaBritain

Ireland

Greece

US

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 50 100 150 200 250Debt to GDP %

Unemp %

3

4

5

6

7

8

Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12

(%)

Italy Spain

Page 46: Barings

46

EuropeGerman GDP highly correlated to Eurozone

• European politicians have begun to reduce the pace at which austere, fiscal deficit reduction is implemented. Such austerity has accelerated the pace at which Europe has entered recession.

• Overall Eurozone GDP declined by 0.2% in Q2 2012. With German exports making up over a third of their economy the Eurozone slowdown is having a major impact on its largest economy.

Source: IFO, Markit, Bloomberg (Sept 2012)

German GDP is following its major export partners lower…

…with manufacturing PMIs entering recessionary territory

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Aug-07 Feb-09 Aug-10 Feb-1275

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

German Manufacturing PMI IFO Business Expectations

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11

(%)

Germany Italy Spain

Page 47: Barings

47

United States

• Job creation has slowed down after a strong start of the year. • Consumers remain cautious.• Uncertainties surrounding the fiscal cliff are high.

Source: US Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau ,Bloomberg (Dec 2008 to September 2012)

Job growth is slowingUS Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Consumer spending remains mutedEarnings, Income and Retail Sales

-8-6-4-202468

Dec-08 Oct-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Apr-12-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Average Hourly Earnings % yoy LHSPersonal income % yoy LHSRetail Sales % yoy RHS

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-117.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Non Farm Payrolls LHS x 1000Initial Jobless Claims x 1000 LHSUnemployment rate % RHS

Page 48: Barings

48

United States

• House prices and home sales continue to pick up due to low mortgage rates. Housing affordability is at multi year highs.

• Inflation continues to moderate despite an increase in commodity prices. Wage costs remain subdued. The Fed has increased its policy accommodation by announcing unlimited purchases of mortgage backed securities.

Source: US National Association of Realtors, Case Schiller,Bureau of Labor Statistics, AAA, Bloomberg (Dec 2008 to September 2012)

The housing market continues to recoverNew Home Sales and House Prices

Inflation remains on a downward trendHeadline and Core CPI with Average price of Gasoline $/gallon

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11

Case Schiller House Price Index % change 3mths annualised

New Home Sales % yoy

Existing Home Sales % yoy

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-121.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

CPI %yoy LHS

CPI Core % yoy LHS

Ave. Gasoline price US$ RHS

Page 49: Barings

49

China

• The growth of China industrial production has fallen steadily for twelve months since the 2H2011. In August, the National Bureau of Statistics reported 8.9% growth of industrial production year-on-year (y-o-y), the slowest pace in three years. The data underscore risks that the full-year growth will slide to its lowest in two decades.

• Despite the slowed down of the world second-biggest economy, the growth of retails sales still maintained at the levels above 13% y-o-y since the beginning of this year. The market expects the internal demands will remain robust and thus partly offset the contradiction in external demands.

Source: US National Association of Realtors, Case Schiller,Bureau of Labor Statistics, AAA, Bloomberg (Dec 2008 to September 2012)

Industrial production growth plunged to single digit for a fifth month

Retail sales slowed down but still grew at double digit

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12

(%)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12

(%)

Page 50: Barings

50

Appendix

Page 51: Barings

51

Bawag Global High Yield Bond FundPortfolio Composition

Source: Barings 22 October 2012

POLAND (Local), 1.1%

BRAZIL, 4.7%

TURKEY, 5.6%

PHILIPPINES, 4.7%

MEXICO, 5.9%

BULGARIA, 2.9%

INDONESIA, 3.8%

PERU, 6.0%

US & Euro High Yield

49.7%

Emerging Market Debt

34.6%Investment

Grade & Cash15.8%

Emerging Market Debt

High Yield Corporates

Services, 6.9

Telecoms, 4.1Healthcare, 3.8

Consumer Cyc, 3.1

Tech, 2.9

Media, 2.5

Capital Goods, 2.1

Other, 5.7

Basic Industry, 11.4

Energy, 7.1

Investment Grade

Fund Size: €180.3 millionDuration: 5.1 years

Cash, 13.2

Services, 0.9Energy, 1.7

Source: Barings 22 October 2012

Page 52: Barings

52

Performance of Bawag High Yield Bond Fund30th September 2012

Source: Barings, Gross of Fees as at 30 September 2012* Inception date: 30 November 2000

6.0

13.6

18.7

11.4 11.5

9.3

0

5

10

15

20

Q3 2012 YTD 2012 1 Year 3 years (ann.) 5 years (ann.) SI (ann.) *

(%)

Page 53: Barings

53

Investment Professionals

Ece Ugurtas, CFA

Head of Credit Portfolio Construction GroupFixed Income Investment ManagerLocation: LondonInvestment Experience: 14 Years

Ece chairs the Credit Portfolio Construction Group and is responsible for Global High Yield portfolios. Ece is the manager of the Baring High Yield Bond Fund and a member of the Scenario Team. Ece joined Baring Asset Management as a Fund Manager in 2003. Previously she worked at M&G Investment Management as a Director of Fixed Interest Portfolio Management, managing gilt portfolios and emerging market debt funds. Ece has an MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Economics and Politics from Bristol University. She was awarded the CFA designation in 2000. Ece speaks Turkish and German fluently.

Last updated: 4 January 2012

Sunita Kara, CFA

Fixed Income Investment Manager

Location: LondonInvestment Experience: 11 Years

Sunita is an Investment Manager and member of the Credit Portfolio Construction Group. She is the manager of the Baring Asset Management Corporate Bond Fund and also a member of the Risk Group, which is a sub-group of the SPG, the research body responsible for asset allocation. Sunita joined Barings in 2007 and prior to being appointed to her current position, undertook various research responsibilities in credit and emerging market debt markets in both local and hard currency. Prior to Barings, Sunita worked for 5 years at Standard & Poor's Ratings Services as a Senior Credit Analyst with research responsibilities for a portfolio of corporates. She began her career as an economic analyst at HM Treasury. Sunita holds a first class BSc (Hons) in Economics from Brunel University in London and was awarded the CFA designation in 2006.

Last updated: 4 January 2012

Page 54: Barings

54

Baring High Yield Bond FundShare Class Overview

Fund Share Class ISIN Code

Annual Management

ChargeBaring High Yield Bond Fund Class A USD Inc IE0000835953 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A USD Inc Monthly Dividend IE0032158457 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A USD Acc IE00B6TMN219 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A EUR Inc IE0004851808 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A EUR Hedged Inc IE0032158341 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A GBP Hedged Inc IE0033156484 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A HKD Inc Monthly Dividend IE00B62P4Q86 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A AUD Hedged Inc Monthly Dividend IE00B881PF08 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A CAD Hedged Inc Monthly Dividend IE00B7YBBB53 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class A NZD Hedged Inc Monthly Dividend IE00B8GQ7V76 1,00%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class I USD Acc IE00B3L6P808 0,75%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class I EUR Acc IE00B3L6P915 0,75%

Baring High Yield Bond Fund Class I GBP Hedged Inc IE00B3L6PB37 0,75%

Page 55: Barings

55

European Distribution Contacts

Head of Sales Europe and Middle EastOliver Morath

Tel: +49 69 7169 1810Email: [email protected]

France and Belgium:Benoit du Mesnil du Buisson+33 (0)1 53 93 60 00Email: [email protected]

Germany and Austria: Martin Dilg+49 (0)69 7169-1824Email: [email protected]

Luxembourg and Switzerland: Thomas Justen+49 (0)69 7169-1826Email: [email protected]

UK, Ireland, Spain and Channel Islands:Rod Aldridge+44 (0) 20 7214 1005Email: [email protected]

Middle EastNisarg Trivedi+971 4 4019220 Email: [email protected]

Nordic RegionChristine Bergstedt+44 (0)20 7214 1283 Email: [email protected]

Page 56: Barings

56

Important Information

For Professional Investors/Advisers only. It should not be distributed to or relied on by Retail Investors. This document is approved and issued by Baring Asset Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and in jurisdictions other than the UK it is provided by the appropriate Baring Asset Management company/affiliate whose name(s) and contact details are specified herein. The information in this document does not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice or recommendation. It is not an invitation to subscribe and is for information only. Investment involves risk. The value of any investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Where yields have been quoted they are not guaranteed. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Investments in higher yielding bonds issued by borrowers with lower credit ratings may result in a greater risk of default and have a negative impact on income and capital value. Income payments may constitute a return of capital in whole or in part. Income may be achieved by foregoing future capital growth. We reasonably believe that the information contained herein from 3rd party sources, as quoted, is accurate as at the date of publication. The information and any opinions expressed herein may change at any time. Companies and employees of the Baring Asset Management group may hold positions in the investment(s) concerned. This document may include internal portfolio construction guidelines. As guidelines the fund is not required to and may not always be within these limits. These guidelines are subject to change without prior notice and are provided for information purposes only.This document may include forward looking statements which are based on our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward looking statements.This document must not be used, or relied on, for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in any product, we recommend that appropriate financial advice should be sought. The Key Investor Information Document (KIID) must be received and read. All other relevant documents relating to the product such as the Report and Accounts and Prospectus should also be read. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available in respect to any Offshore Fund.

Research MaterialBaring Asset Management only produces research for its own internal use. Where details of research are provided in this document it is provided as an example of research undertaken by Baring Asset Management and must not be used, or relied upon, for the purposes of any investment decisions. The information and opinions expressed herein may change at anytime.Lists of locations, or location indicators on maps, are non-exhaustive. They may include locations where Barings has an office and/or where Barings has appointed a local organisation or individual to act on its behalf for certain aspects of its business.For data sourced from Morningstar: © Morningstar, Inc. all rights reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.An S&P Fund Management Rating represents an opinion only and should not be relied on when making an investment decision. “S&P” and “Standard & Poor’s” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Copyright 2010 © Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC.

Version 08/SD

Complied: London – October 2012 (v250)