Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong...
Transcript of Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited 19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong...
Baring AssetManagement (Asia) Limited19/F, Edinburgh Tower, 15 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong
Tel +852 2841 1411
www.barings.com
Authorised and regulated by theFinancial Services Authority
Khiem Do
May 15, 2009
The Asia Pacific Fund, Inc.
Global and Asian Investment Outlook
www.asiapacificfund.com
2
China To Lead The World In 2009 ?Equity markets’ performance since 27/10/08
Source: Bloomberg (04/2009)
China up 63%, Asia up 39% and US down 1%
3
US Economy:Where are we now ?
‘Green shoots’ are appearing
Source: Citi (4/2009)
ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan-
81
Jan-
83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
Jan-
05
Jan-
07
Jan-
09
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Tig
hten
ing
- In
vert
ed
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
S&
P 500 (Y
/Y)
Q1-
91
Q1-
92Q
1-93
Q1-
94
Q1-
95Q
1-96
Q1-
97Q
1-98
Q1-
99
Q1-
00Q
1-01
Q1-
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Q1-
03Q
1-04
Q1-
05
Q1-
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Q1-
07Q
1-08
Q1-
09
RecessionBanks Tightening C&I Loans to Large Firms (%) (Left) S&P 500 Composite (EOP 1941-43=10)
Banks Tightening C&I Loans to Large Firms (%) vs. S&P 500 (Y/Y)
Index
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Global Economy:Where are we now ?
‘Green shoots’ are appearing
Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009)
G4 Economies - PMI New Orders Emerging Economies - PMI New Orders
16202428323640444852566064
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09USEuro AreaUKJapan
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
India
China (sa)
Russia
Brazil
Index Index
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Quantitative Easing:Every OECD central bank is doing it …..
Positive for the trend of ‘risk’ assets …..
Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009)
G3+ Central Bank Balance Sheet Size
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09
Euro Area Japan UK US
Size index (100 at Jan ’07)
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US Property Price Trend:We seem to get closer to the bottom …..
Last two months’ prices showed a slight rise: encouraging sign …..
Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009)
US Real Average Existing House Price (log scale)
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
Jan 68 Jan 73 Jan 78 Jan 83 Jan 88 Jan 93 Jan 98 Jan 03 Jan 08
Real Average Existing House Price (log)
Trend = 1.5% per annum1 annualised SD = 6.9%
Aug 73Okt 742.79 %14 months
Jun 79Sep 828.46 %39 months
Jan 88Dez 9011.35 %35 months
Jul 91Apr 956.1 %45 months
Nov 05Feb 0926.33 %39 months
Real house price
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Asia’s Balance Sheet Revisited:Healthy
Asian banks have capacity to lendAsian corporate debt levels are close to 25 year lows
... as well as external debt levelsThe external position of Asia is healthier today than 20 years ago in terms of current account balance...
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008E
Asia ex-Japan Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
GDP-wgt Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (major financial institutions)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Asia ex HK/Sing Current Account Balance as % of GDP
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21
26
31
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Asia ex HK/Sing Total External Debt as % of GDP
Source: Citi (4/2009)
Data prior to 1995 excludes Taiwan Data prior to 1995 excludes Taiwan
It is most likely that Asia can weather this storm well
% of GDP % of GDP
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Corporate Earnings Growth:Downgrades bottoming out
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09
2009 2010
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09
2009 2010
Source: JP Morgan (4/2009)
US Asia Pacific ex-Japan
Room for upward surprise in 2009 ?
Earnings Revisions Index Earnings Revisions Index
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Asian Equities’ Valuations:Challenging growth in 2008/09, recovery in 2010 ?
Source: JP Morgan (4/2009)
P/E (x)Div. Yield
(X)P/BV (x) Earning growth (%) ROE (%)
CountryCurrent Trailing
12m fwdCurrent Trailing
Current Trailing
2008E 2009E 2010E 2009E
Global * 9.2 10.0 4.3 1.2 -10.3 -15.1 17.3 11.5
USA * 15.5 12.8 3.0 1.8 -22.1 -9.8 22.5 10.7
EMF Asia 10.5 10.9 3.7 1.3 -15.4 -10.7 23.0 11.2
China 12.9 12.3 3.2 1.8 -9.7 -0.8 20.4 13.3
Korea 14.5 14.0 1.7 1.2 -32.6 -9.5 44.4 7.6
* Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. US trailing PE is calculated as per reported earnings. For all other markets and sectors, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest. Companies with different yearends are calendarised to December yearends and are free float adjusted for aggregation. Historical numbers are from MSCI.
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Asian Equities’ Valuation:P/B close to historical bottom
Source: Citi (4/2009)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan75 Jan79 Jan83 Jan87 Jan91 Jan95 Jan99 Jan03 Jan07
MSCI AC Asia ex Jp PBV
0.92x, MXASJ at 195
1.8x, both10- and 30-yr avg
Cheap
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Dec-93 Dec-96 Dec-99 Dec-02 Dec-05 Dec-08
% Stock trading below book
Asia Ex-Japan
P/B
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US Money Market vs Equities:Where’s the money ?
Mountain of cash in money markets !
Source: Citi (4/2009)
Note: 1Q09 reading for deposits and cash held steady from 4Q08
S&P 500 Market Cap vs. Household Deposits & Currency + S&P 500 Non-Financial Corporate Cash
Equity Mutual Fund Assets as a % of Total Assets (ex Institutional Money Market Assets)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Q1-
1988
Q1-
1990
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1996
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Q1-
2002
Q1-
2004
Q1-
2006
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2008
$Millions
Deposits + Corporate Cash S&P 500: Market Capitalization (Bil.$)
45%
48%
51%
54%
57%
60%
63%
66%
69%
72%
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
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Jan-
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Asian Excess Liquidity:Accelerating
Source: Citi (4/2009)
Bullish for share prices
-15
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84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-80
-60
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0
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Asian Domestic Excess Liquidity (%YoY, LHS) MSCI AC Asia ex-Jp US$ Index 12-m % Chg (RHS)
%YoY % Chg
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Risk Appetite for Asian Equities:Aversion or appetite ?
Source: Citi (4/2009)
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
92 93 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
120
220
320
420
520
620
720
Asia ex Japan Risk-love Indictor (S.D.,LHS) MSCI AC Asia ex Japan (RHS)
Euphoria
Distress
Risk aversion has abated, but risk appetite remains low
Risk deviation in SDs from mean MSCI Asia index
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Let’s Assume That US Equities Have Troughed:What is the upside potential ?
S&P 500 at 966 in March 2010 ?
Source: Citi (4/2009)
S&P 500 Bear Markets and Subsequent PerformancePeak Trough
Date Level Date Level
09/07/1929 31.92 06/01/1932 4.41 -86.18% 120.85%09/07/1932 9.31 02/27/1933 5.53 -40.60% 95.44%07/18/1933 12.20 10/21/1933 8.56 -29.82% 5.29%02/05/1934 11.81 03/14/1935 8.06 -31.77% 81.41%03/06/1937 18.68 03/31/1938 8.50 -54.48% 29.18%11/09/1938 13.79 04/08/1939 10.19 -26.12% 23.61%10/25/1939 13.21 06/10/1940 8.99 -31.94% 9.24%11/09/1940 11.40 04/28/1942 7.47 -34.46% 53.68%05/29/1946 19.25 05/17/1947 13.72 -28.75% 21.12%06/15/1948 17.07 06/13/1949 13.55 -20.59% 42.05%08/02/1956 49.75 10/22/1957 38.98 -21.65% 31.02%12/12/1961 72.64 06/26/1962 52.32 -27.97% 32.66%02/09/1966 94.06 10/07/1966 73.20 -22.18% 33.21%11/29/1968 108.37 05/26/1970 69.29 -36.06% 43.73%01/11/1973 120.24 10/03/1974 62.28 -48.20% 38.01%11/28/1980 140.52 08/12/1982 102.42 -27.11% 58.33%08/25/1987 336.77 12/04/1987 223.92 -33.51% 22.78%03/24/2000 1527.46 10/09/2002 776.76 -49.15% 33.73%10/09/2007 1565.15 03/09/2009 676.53 -56.78%
Average -37.23% 43.08%
Peak to Trough % Change
1 Year Performance from Trough
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The Asian 8-year Market Cycle:Will 2009 be the trough for coming 8-year cycle ?
Last trough 2001 >>> next trough 2009?
Source: Citi (4/2009)
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Dec74 Dec78 Dec82 Dec86 Dec90 Dec94 Dec98 Dec02 Dec06 Dec10
MSCI AC Asia ex Jp PBV
From trough-to-trough: 8yrs 7yrs 11mths Trough in 2009?
From trough-to-peak: 6yrs 2mths
4yrs 11mths
3yrs 4mths
6yrs 2mths
8yrs
Good prospects for Asia’s re-rating
P/B (X)
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Foreign Investors’ Flow Analysis for Asia:Back as buyer ?
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Apr-06 Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09
(US$m)
USD 4.4 bn inflow in April month-to-date !
Source: Credit Suisse (4/2009)
Total Net Flows for Asia (ex Mal/HK-China)
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Fund StrategyLooking to add growth with focus on earnings delivery
We expect to see a continuation of relaxed macro policies globally, as short-term economic data is expected to remain weak
Asian economies, led by China, are expected to slow down cyclically, but remain solid structurally
With Asian equity valuations looking fair value, we continue to selectively add to growth/cyclicals on weakness
Stock selection focuses on earnings delivery following the strong share price rebound from distressed valuations
Change
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Important Information
This document is provided as a service to professional investors/advisers. It is issued in the United Kingdom by Baring Asset Management Limited and/or by its investment adviser affiliates in other jurisdictions. The affiliate serving as the Asia Pacific Fund’s investment adviser is Baring Asset Management (Asia) Limited. In the United Kingdom this document is issued only to persons falling within a permitted category under (i) the FSA’s rules made under section 238(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and (ii) the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001.
This is not an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment referred to in this document. Baring Asset Management group companies, their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees may own or have positions in any investment mentioned herein or any investment related thereto and from time to time add to or dispose of any such investment. The contents of this document are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable but no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This document may include forward-looking statements, which are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections as of the date on the cover hereof. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of an investment. There are additional risks associated with investments (made directly or through investment vehicles which invest) in emerging or developing markets. Compensation arrangements under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom will not be available.
Private investors in the Company referred to herein should obtain their own independent financial advise before making investments. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. Before investing in the Company, we recommend that all relevant documents, such as reports and accounts and prospectus should be read, which specify the particular risks associated with investment in the Company, together with any specific restrictions applying and the basis of dealing. The Company may not be available for investment in all jurisdictions. There may also be prohibitions or restrictions on distribution of this document and other material relating to the Company and accordingly recipients of any such documents are advised to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.
Complied (Boston): May 13, 2009