Barbara Pogorzelska, Technical Program...
Transcript of Barbara Pogorzelska, Technical Program...
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Targeted Marketing with Amazon Machine Learning
Barbara Pogorzelska,
Technical Program Manager
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Agenda
• Problem description
• Downloading, editing and uploading the data
• Datasource creation
• ML model creation
• Model evaluation
• Batch prediction
• Clean up
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Problem Description
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Machine learning & the use case
Machine learning is the technology that automatically finds
patterns in your data and uses them to make predictions for
new data points as they become available
Problem
How to identify potential customers for targeted marketing
campaigns?
Data available
Publicly available banking and marketing dataset from the
University of California at Irvine (UCI) repository
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Amazon Machine Learning tutorial
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Amazon Machine Learning tutorial
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Data (see http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/Bank+Marketing)
Training data
41188 data points
20 attributes
binary output
Batch predictions
4119 data points
Bank client data
1 - age 2 - job (admin., blue-collar, entrepreneur, …)3 - marital (single, divorces, married, …) 4 - education (basic.4y, basic.6y, university.degree, …)5 - default: has credit in default? 6 - housing: has housing loan?
7 - loan: has personal loan?
Related with the last contact of the current campaign
8 - contact: communication type: (cellular, telephone) 9 - month: last contact month of year10 - day_of_week: last contact day of the week 11 - duration: last contact duration, in seconds
Other attributes
12 - campaign: number of contacts performed during this
campaign and for this client
13 - pdays: number of days that passed by after the client
was last contacted from a previous campaign
14 - previous: number of contacts performed before this
campaign and for this client
15 - poutcome: outcome of the previous marketing
campaign
Social and economic context attributes
16 - emp.var.rate: employment variation rate
17 - cons.price.idx: consumer price index
18 - cons.conf.idx: consumer confidence index
19 - euribor3m: euribor 3 month rate - daily indicator
20 - nr.employed: number of employees
Output variable (desired target)
21 - y - has the client subscribed a term deposit?
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Three steps to create a prediction
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Downloading, editing and uploading the data
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Storing the data on S3
• Download from https://s3.amazonaws.com/aml-sample-data/banking.csv and
https://s3.amazonaws.com/aml-sample-data/banking-batch.csv
– Replaced yes/no with 1/0
• Store data on S3
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Datasource creation
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Datasource creation
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Datasource creation
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Datasource creation
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Datasource creation
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Datasource creation
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Three steps to create a prediction
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ML model creation
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Model creation – default model
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Model creation – default model
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Model creation – default model
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Model creation – default model
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Model evaluation
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Model evaluation – default model
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Model evaluation – default model
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Model evaluation – default model
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Data Insights
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Data Insights
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Data Insights
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Data Insights
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Data Insights
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Data Insights
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Model creation – custom model
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Model creation – custom model
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Model creation – custom model
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Model creation – custom model
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Three steps to create a prediction
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Batch predictions
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - default model
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Batch predictions - custom model
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Batch predictions - custom model
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Batch predictions - custom model
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Batch predictions - custom model
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Clean up
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Clean up your account
To delete the input data used for training, evaluation, and batch prediction steps
1. Open the Amazon S3 console.
2. Navigate to the S3 bucket where you stored the banking.csv and banking-batch.csv.
3. Select the two files and the .writePermissionCheck.tmp file.
4. Choose Actions, Delete.
5. When prompted for confirmation, choose OK.
To delete the predictions generated from the batch prediction step
1. Open the Amazon S3 console.
2. Navigate to the bucket where you stored the output of the batch predictions.
3. Select the batch-prediction folder.
4. Choose Actions, Delete.
5. When prompted for confirmation, click OK.
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Try out machine-learning-samples from github
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