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    1

    Banking Sector 1H2013 Earnings ReviewNet earnings dip despite robust core profit growth

    Udeeshan Jonas

    Reshan Wediwardana

    CAL Research

    September 2013

    60%

    37% 35% 33% 32%

    9%

    -3%

    -114%

    SAMP NTB HNB NDB PABC COMB SEYB UBC

    15%

    5% 3%

    -2%-11% -13%

    -39%

    -55%

    HNB NTB SEYB NDB UBC COMB SAMP PABC

    1H2013 Net Earnings YoY Growth 1H2013 Core Profits YoY Growth

    See Page 50 for important disclaimer

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    Banking Sector 1H2013 Earnings Review

    I. Easing monetary stance yet to reap results

    II. Core banking profits continue to remain robust

    III. Macro changes challenge credit quality and netearnings

    IV. CALs top 5 picks to avg. 36.4% vs. our coverageuniverse avg. of 30.2%

    V. Appendix : Summary Financial Statements

    2

    Page

    3

    12

    20

    32

    39

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    I. EASING MONETARY STANCE YET TOREAP RESULTS

    3

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    I. Easing monetary stance yet to reap results

    The Central Bank enforced an easing monetary stance from Jan 2013

    In 1H2013, CBSLs monetary easing led to a 254bps decline in AWPLR

    Deposit rates followed a similar trend declining c.280bps YTD

    However, loan growth continues to remain subdued (avg. of 6.5% YTD) aseconomic conditions remain sluggish

    Private sector credit yet to pick up despite the rate cut (+4.4% Jan-Jul 2013

    vs. +13.2% Jan-Jul 2012)

    CAL revises private sector credit growth downwards to 12% for 2013E(previous 16%)

    4

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    The Central Bank enforced an easing monetarystance from Jan 2013

    The 18% cap imposed on loan growth for banks in 2012 was removed fromJan 2013

    Policy rates were cut by 50bps in May 2013

    Statutory Reserve Ratio was cut by 200bps in June 2013

    Interest rate on credit cards was reduced from 28% to 24% in May 2013

    A maximum cap of 2-3% on penal interest rate was imposed for delayedpayments

    5

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    9

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    16

    17

    Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

    AWPR AWLR

    In 1H2013, CBSLs monetary easing led to a254bps decline in AWPLR

    6

    Figure 1: AWLR and AWPR Jan-Aug 2013

    Source: CBSL

    Statutory Reserve Ratio wascut by 200bps in June 2013

    Policy rates were cutby 50bps in May 2013

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    Deposit rates followed a similar trend decliningc.280bps YTD

    7

    13.5% 13.5%14.0%

    13.0%

    14.0% 14.0%14.5%

    15.0%

    10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%11.5%

    12.5%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    16.0%

    COMB SAMP NTB NDB HNB SEYB PABC UBC

    1-yr FD rate Jan 2013 1-yr FD rates Aug 2013

    Figure 2: 1-yr fixed deposit rate changes - YTD

    Avg. 13.9%

    Avg. 11.1%

    Source: Bank websites

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    However, loan growth continues to remainsubdued (avg. of 6.5% YTD)

    8

    Figure 3: Loan growth Jan to Jun 2013

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

    21.4%

    11.7%

    7.1%

    5.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%

    1.1%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    UBC SAMP HNB NTB SEYB NDB COMB PABC

    Avg. loan growth 6.5% (Jan- June 2013)

    Banks with heavy exposure to the corporate sector

    witnessed lower loan book growth in 1H2013

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    as economic conditions remain sluggish

    9

    1.8

    1.57

    1.5

    1.6

    1.6

    1.7

    1.7

    1.8

    1.8

    1.9

    Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13

    Figure 7: Perceived Economic Opportunity IndexFigure 6: Industrial Production Index

    Figure 4: External Trade Jan-Jun 2013

    3,500

    4,500

    5,500

    6,500

    7,500

    8,500

    9,50010,500

    Exports USD mn Imports USD mn

    USDmn

    Jan-Jun 2012 Jan-Jun 2013

    -4.5%

    -5.8%

    112.3

    109.2

    90

    95

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13

    2010=100

    Figure 5: Nielson Business Confidence Index

    135129

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

    BCI

    Source: CBSL, LMD & FEF

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    Private sector credit yet to pick up despite the ratecut (+4.4% Jan-Jul 2013 vs. +13.2% Jan-Jul 2012)

    10

    22%

    19%

    22% 21%20%

    24%

    32%

    15%

    13%

    11% 10%9.3% 8.9% 8.4%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    Total credit to public sector growth (YoY)

    Credit to the Private Sector growth (YoY)

    Figure 8: Private Sector vs. Public SectorCredit YoY Growth

    Source: CBSL & CAL Research

    13.2%

    4.4%

    2012 2013

    Credit to the Private Sector growth (YoY)

    Figure 9: Private Sector Credit Growth(Jan-Jul)

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    CAL revises private sector credit growthdownwards to 12% for 2013E (previous 16%)

    11

    LKR2.36tn

    LKR2.64tn

    2012 2013E

    Figure 10: CALs private sector credit growth estimate

    Source: CBSL & CAL Research

    * Private sector credit includes government commercial banks, private local banks and foreign commercial banks* CAL expects marginal recovery in credit growth in 2H2013

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    II. CORE BANKING PROFITS CONTINUETO REMAIN ROBUST

    12

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    II. Core banking profits continue to remainrobust

    In 1H2013, deposit growth outpaced loan growth for most banks (avg. of 8.7%vs. 6.5%)

    Slower loan book growth led to excess funds being parked in low-yield liquidassets (avg. 25%)

    Banks with growing liquid assets witnessed declines in their net interest margins(avg. NIMs 4.5%)

    Moderate fee income growth augmented NII growth for most banks, despite theslowdown in external trade

    Cost-to-income* improved across the board as banks slowed down branchexpansion (avg -300bps)

    Core profitability remains robust for mainstream banks (avg. 24%)

    13

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    15.4%

    13.0%

    9.4% 9.2%

    6.8%6.5%

    6.1%

    3.0%

    UBC SAMP HNB NTB SEYB NDB COMB PABC

    In 1H2013, deposit growth outpaced loangrowth for most banks (avg. of 8.7% vs. 6.5%)

    14

    Figure 11: Deposit growth in 1H2013

    Avg. Deposit growth 8.7% (Jan- Jun 2013)

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

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    Slower loan book growth led to excess funds beingparked in low-yield liquid assets (avg. 25%)

    15

    25.4%

    22.0%

    25.9%

    21.5% 21.0% 21.5% 21.8% 21.6%

    32.6%

    27.7%

    25.4%24.4% 23.8%

    22.5% 22.2%

    20.7%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    COMB NDB NTB SYEB PABC SAMP HNB UBC

    2012 1H2013

    Avg. 25%

    Figure 12: Statutory liquid assets of banks - 2012 vs. 1H2013

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

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    Significant reduction inlending rates to boostloan growth led to thedecline in NIMs

    52

    19

    8 8

    -35 -37

    -69-77

    -100

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    NTB NDB HNB SAMP COMB PABC SEYB UBC

    Bpschange

    Imposition of minimum lendingrates to improve yield on assetscompared to other banks led toa marginal improvement in NIMsdespite increasing liquid assets

    Banks with growing liquid assets witnessed declines intheir net interest margins (avg. NIMs 4.5%)

    16

    Figure 13: NIMs for 1H2013 Figure 14: Bps change in NIMs (Jan- Jun 2013)

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

    Repricing of A&L., reduction in liquidassets and an improving CASA baseassisted the improvement in NIMs

    5.5% 5.4%

    4.5% 4.5%4.3% 4.3%

    4.0%3.5%

    NTB HNB COMB SEYB PABC SAMP NDB UBC

    Avg. 4.5%

    Figure 16: Bps change in liquid assets (Jan- Jun 2013)

    723

    570

    284 284

    9938

    -47 -91-200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    COMB NDB PABC SEYB SAMP HNB NTB UBC

    Bpschange

    Figure 15: Net interest income growth 1H2013 YoY

    32%

    27% 26%23%

    17%

    6%

    -3%

    -7%

    NTB SAMP NDB HNB PABC COMB SEYB UBC

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    Moderate fee income growth augmented NII growthfor most banks, despite the slowdown in external trade

    17

    Figure 17: 1H2013 Fee income growth YoY & Fee income as % of net income

    56%

    28%

    20% 20%

    16%

    13%

    10%

    1%

    17%

    22%

    20%

    32%

    18%16%

    15%

    22%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    UBC SEYB NDB NTB SAMP COMB HNB PABC

    Feeincomeasa

    %ofnetinterestincome

    1H2013g

    rowthinfeeincomeYoY

    Growth in fee based income Fee income as a % of net interest income

    Banks recognized higher fee income mainlystemming from the card business and higherbank charges

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

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    51%

    59%

    70%

    67% 66%

    72%69%

    82%

    50%56%

    62% 63%64% 68%

    70%

    103%

    COMB NTB SAMP HNB NDB PABC SEYB UBC

    1H2012 1H2013

    Cost-to-income* improved across the board as banksslowed down branch expansion (avg -300bps)

    18* Cost-to-income = Non operating income/(Net Interest Income + Fee based income)

    Figure 18: Cost-to-income ratio* of banks 1H2012 vs. 1H2013

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

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    Core profitability remains robust for mainstream banks(avg. 24%)

    19

    Figure 19: 1H2013 Core profit* growth YoY

    60%

    37% 35% 33% 32%

    9%

    -3%

    -114%

    SAMP NTB HNB NDB PABC COMB SEYB UBC

    PABCs core profit growth mainly

    comes from the reduction in cost-to-

    income ratio from 72% to 68%

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

    Avg. 24%

    UBCs core profits dipped 114% YoY asnet interest income declined 7% YoY

    and operating expenses rose 24% YoY

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    III. MACRO CHANGES CHALLENGECREDIT QUALITY & NET EARNINGS

    20

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    III. Macro changes challenge credit quality andnet earnings

    Overall net earnings were down for 1H2013 due to higher impairment charges andtrading losses

    NPLs across the board shot up with the slowdown in economic activity (avg. +72bps)

    Substantial rise in impairment charges hurt bottom-line, especially for banks withgreater exposure to gold loans

    as gold prices tumbled 26% Jan-Jun 2013

    Net earnings deteriorated further on reduction in trading income resulting fromreduced forex gains

    However, capital adequacy still remains above minimum requirement (avg. 15%)

    Leverage ratios of SL banks also are at comfortable levels compared to global banks

    Attractive relative valuation multiples for SL banking stocks (avg. PER 8.7x; avg. PBV1.1x)

    Banking sector stocks dividend yield avg. 5.5%

    21

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    Overall net earnings were down for 1H2013 due tohigher impairment charges and trading losses

    22

    Figure 20: Net profit growth for the 1H2013 YoY

    Source: Bank uarterl re orts

    15%

    5%3%

    -2%

    -11%-13%

    -39%

    -55%

    HNB NTB SEYB NDB UBC COMB SAMP PABC

    Higher impairment charges were offset by

    the LKR1.5bn reversal of overprovisioning

    for Employee Share Benefit Scheme

    NDBs earnings declined 2% YoY due to

    higher VAT charges & reduction in

    trading and associate profits

    COMBs net earnings declined 13% YoY due to a

    one-off LKR 2.5bn forex translation gain recorded

    in 1H2012 which resulted from the 14% LKR

    depreciation (Jan-Jun 2012)

    An LKR 1.7bn impairment charge and a one-off

    LKR1.4bn forex gain last year resulted in 1H2013

    net earnings declining 39% YoY, despite a 60%

    YoY 1H2013 core profit growth

    A trading loss of LKR243mn in 1H2013 vs. a

    trading gain of LKR210mn in 1H2012 due to

    the inclusion & revaluation of swap costs

    resulted in the reduction in profitability

    An LKR399mn impairment was recognized in

    1H2013 vs. a LKR114mn reversal in 1H2012 to

    compensate for the rising NPLs

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    NPLs across the board shot up with theslowdown in economic activity (avg. +72bps)

    23

    Figure 21: Gross Non Performing Advances

    ratio as at 30th Jun 2013

    Figure 22: Basis points increase in Gross NPL's

    (2012 to 1H2013)

    Source: Bank quarterly reports

    365

    11489

    6754 46

    25

    -184

    -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    PABC NTB HNB COMB NDB SAMP UBC SEYB

    Bps

    NPLs declined 180bps due

    to the higher NPL base of

    SEYB

    Avg. 72bps

    11.2%

    7.8%

    5.7%4.6%

    4.0% 4.0%

    2.5%1.9%

    SEYB PABC UBC HNB COMB NTB SAMP NDB

    Avg. 4.7%

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    Substantial rise in impairment charges hurt bottom-line,especially for banks with greater exposure to gold loans

    24

    Figure 23: Impairment charge & banks exposure to gold loans

    25%

    16%16%

    13%

    11%

    4%

    3%

    3%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    -500

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    SAMP PABC HNB SEYB UBC NDB COMB NTB

    %exp

    osuretogoldloans-2012

    Impa

    irmentcharge-LKRmn

    Impairment charge 1H2012 Impairment charge 1H2013 Exposure to gold loans

    Source: Bank annual & quarterly reports

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    as gold prices tumbled 26% Jan-Jun 2013

    25

    Figure 24: Global gold spot prices YTD

    1,676

    1,235

    1,367

    1,100

    1,200

    1,300

    1,400

    1,500

    1,600

    1,700

    1,800

    January-13 February-13 March-13 April-13 May-13 June-13 July-13 August-13 September-13

    USD/Oz

    Banks have now reduced their LTVs on gold loans toc.60-65% from their previous 80-85% to be cautious onfurther gold price reduction.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Banks with higher exposure to pawning advancesrecognized significant impairment charges as the 26%reduction in gold prices led to collateral value of goldloans falling below loan value

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    Net earnings deteriorated further on reduction intrading income resulting from reduced forex gains

    26

    Figure 25: Net trading income/(losses) in 1H2012

    vs. 1H2013

    -6%

    -5%

    2%

    -5%

    8%

    -5%

    4%

    6%

    (1,500)

    (1,000)

    (500)

    -

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    -8%

    -6%

    -4%

    -2%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    HNB COMB SAMP NTB NDB SEYB PABC UBC

    Trading income 1H2012

    Trading income 1H2013

    Trading income as a % of net operating income

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    130

    135

    140

    LKR/USD

    +2% LKR

    depreciation

    Figure 26: LKR exchange rate movement

    2012 to Sep 2013

    One-off forex gains in 1H2012 stemming from the 16%

    LKR depreciation (Jan-Jun 2012) and recognition of

    currency swap costs (1H2013) under trading income

    resulted in a decline in trading income

    Source: Bank quarterly reports & CBSL

    LKRmn

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    However, capital adequacy still remains aboveminimum requirement (avg. 15%)

    27

    Figure 27: Tier 2 capital ratio of banks 2012 vs. 1H2013

    20.7%

    13.9%

    20.3%

    16.9%

    14.4%

    17.3%

    15.8%

    13.8%

    18.3%17.8%

    16.0% 15.9%15.2% 14.9%

    12.7% 12.6%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    NDB COMB UBC HNB SYEB NTB PABC SAMP

    Tier 2 as at 31st Dec 2012 Tier 2 as at 30th Jun 2013

    Source: Bank quarterly reports & CBSL

    Min. requirement 10%

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    Leverage ratios of SL banks also are atcomfortable levels

    28

    Figure 28: Leverage ratio of SL banks (Assets/ Equity)

    6.9x7.5x

    9.0x

    9.5x10.0x

    12.1x12.5x

    15.4x

    0.0

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    12.0

    14.0

    16.0

    18.0

    UBC NDB HNB SEYB COMB NTB SAMP PABC

    Leverageratio(Assets/Equity)

    Leverage ratio as at 31st Dec 2012 Leverage ratio as at 30th June 2013

    Avg. 10.4x

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    ...compared to global banks

    29

    Figure 29: Leverage ratios of a few global banks (Assets/Equity)

    10.4x9.3x 9.0x

    9.6x

    11.6x

    20.2x

    18.6x

    14.7x

    11.3x

    9.8x 9.6x

    14.3x

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Sri Lanka Bank of

    america

    Wells

    Fargo &

    Co

    Bank Of

    New York

    Mellon

    Corp

    JPMorgan

    Chase &

    Co

    Bnp

    Paribas

    Royal

    Bank Of

    Scotland

    Group

    HSBC

    Holdings

    Malayan

    Bank

    DBS

    Group

    ICICI Bank Punjab

    National

    Bank

    Assets/Equity

    Avg. 12.5x

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    Attractive relative valuation multiples for SLbanking stocks (avg. PER 8.7x; avg. PBV 1.1x)

    30

    Figure 30: Trailing 12 months and Forward 2013E PER

    Figure 31: P/BV based on net assets values as at 31 June 2013 and December 2013E

    Source: Bank quarterly reports & CAL Research

    0.5x

    0.8x0.9x 1.0x 1.0x

    1.1x 1.1x1.2x

    1.3x

    1.3x

    1.7x

    0.8x

    0.9x 1.0x1.0x

    1.1x1.3x

    1.6x

    -

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    -

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2.0

    SEYB.X HNB.X SEYB UBC NDB SAMP HNB PABC NTB COMB.X COMB

    PBV-2013E

    PBV

    PBV Jun 2013- (LHS) PBV -2013E - (RHS)

    5.0x 5.3x6.7x 7.2x 7.4x 7.7x 7.8x 8.1x

    9.5x 10.5x

    24.9x

    4.5x6.0x 6.2x 6.5x

    7.3x 7.6x

    9.9x

    -

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    -

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    SEYB.X HNB.X NTB HNB SAMP PABC NDB COMB.X SEYB COMB UBC

    ForwardPER-2013E

    Trailing12MP

    ER(x)

    Trailing PER - (LHS) Forward PER - 2013E (RHS)

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    Banking sector stocks dividend yield avg. 5.5%

    31

    Figure 32: Dividend yield for banks 2012 and 2013E

    Source: Bank quarterly reports & CAL Research

    7.8%

    7.3%

    6.7% 6.5%6.3% 5.7% 5.6%

    5.6%

    3.6%3.5%

    1.0%

    9.1%

    7.1%

    5.7%

    6.6%

    5.4% 5.5%

    4.3%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    HNB.X COMB.X SEYB.X SAMP PABC HNB COMB NDB NTB SEYB UBC

    D

    ividendYield-2013E

    Dividendyield-2012

    Dividend yield - (LHS) Dividend Yield -2013E - (RHS)

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    IV. CALs top 5 picks to avg. 36.4% vs.our coverage universe avg. of 30.2%

    32

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    CALs top 5 picks to avg. 36.4% vs. ourcoverage universe avg. of 30.2%

    33

    BankRecomm

    endation

    Current

    Price

    Previous

    target

    price

    Target

    Price

    Price

    upside

    2013E

    ROE

    2013E

    ROA

    Core

    profit

    growth

    2013E

    Net

    profit

    growth

    2013E

    PBV

    2013E(x)

    PER

    2013E (x)

    Dividend

    yield

    2013E

    Total

    Return

    Hatton National Bank - Non Voting Buy 109 149 151 38% 17.3% 1.9% 32% 16% 1.0 4.5 6.8% 45.2%

    Nations Trust Bank Buy 56 79 78 39% 20.4% 1.72% 31% 14% 1.2 6.1 4.3% 43.6%

    Hatton National Bank - Voting Buy 149 190 190 28% 17.3% 1.9% 32% 16% 0.8 6.1 9.1% 36.7%

    Sampath Bank Buy 179 224 224 25% 16.2% 1.4% 55% -14% 1.0 6.8 5.5% 30.6%

    Commercial Bank - Non Voting Buy 88 112 105 20% 17.4% 2.0% 13% -3% 1.6 9.9 6.2% 26.1%

    Commercial Bank - Voting Hold 114 133 125 10% 17.4% 2.0% 13% -3% 1.3 7.6 7.1% 16.9%

    National Development Bank Hold 143 184 153 7% 16.7% 1.7% 23% 4% 0.9 7.3 5.5% 12.5%

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    Hatton National Bank [HNB.X0000] to deliver 1-year total return of +45.2%: BUYHatton National Bank (HNB V LKR 146.5 NV LKR 109; Market Cap USD421mn): HNB is the second largest private commercial bank with a loan

    book of LKR 326bn (+13%YoY) and a c.23% private bank market share.

    CAL expects HNBs NIMs to improve to 6.1% in 2013E from 5.8% in

    2012 benefiting from declining interest rates (1-yr FD rates reduced to

    11% in 2H2013 from 14% in starting 2013) and an improving CASA base

    (40% in 1H2013 vs. 39% in 1H2012).

    CAL estimates HNBs loan growth to be c.15% for 2013E and fee based

    income to grow c.9% during the year with the introduction of new

    products (hybrid S/As) which may lead to core profit growing 31% YoY

    to LKR 12.7bn in 2013E. The bank will also w itness improvements in i ts

    cost-to-income ratios (63% in 2012 to 55% in 2013E) as branches addedduring the last 2 years start contributing to profitability. For 1H2013,

    HNBs core profits grew 31% YoY while net profits grew 15% YoY to

    LKR 3.4bn.

    CAL anticipates HNBs earnings to grow 16% YoY to LKR 9.4bn in

    2013E which may translate into a PER of 6.1x and PBV of 0.8x at

    current prices. HNB may maintain a dividend payout close to 42%

    which may provide a dividend yield of 6.8% for the voting share and

    9.1% yield for the non-voting share. CALs target price for HNB Voting

    is LKR 190 (+30% total return) and LKR 151 (+39%) for the non-votingshare. BUY

    34

    FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

    Net interest margin 5.24% 5.83% 6.11% 5.93%

    Cost-to-income 69% 63% 55% 58%

    Average ROE 18.1% 17.4% 17.3% 18.9%

    Average ROA 1.91% 1.94% 1.94% 2.08%

    Loan Growth 27.7% 18.1% 15.4% 17.2%

    * Net interest income+Fee based income-Operat ing expenses

    90

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    130140

    Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

    Index

    HNB HNB.X ASPI

    Market Cap (USD): 422mn

    1 Year Avg. Daily T/O (USD): 95k

    1 Year Price H/L (LKR): 132.5/ 102Free Float: 80%

    Current Price (LKR): 109.00

    FYE Mar - LKR mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest income 16,920 22,444 27,173 30,465

    Net interest income growth 33% 21% 12%

    Core Profit* 6,207 9,699 12,669 14,856

    Core Profit growth 56% 31% 17%

    Profi t a ttributable to equ ity holders 6,819 8,111 9,415 11,551

    Profit growth 19% 16% 23%

    EPS (LKR) 17.1 20.3 24.0 29.4

    NAVPS 104.2 129.4 143.7 162.6

    PER (x) (Voting) 8.7 7.3 6.2 5.1

    P/BV (x) (Voting) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9

    PER (x) (Non Voting) 6.4 5.4 4.5 3.7

    P/BV (x) (Non Voting) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7

    DPS (LKR) 7.3 8.5 9.9 12.2

    Dividend Yield % (Voting) 4.9% 5.7% 6.7% 8.2%

    Dividend Yield % (Non Voting) 6.7% 7.8% 9.1% 11.2%

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    Nations Trust Bank [NTB.N0000] to deliver 1-yeartotal return of +43.6%: BUY

    Nations Trust Bank (NTB V LKR 56; Market Cap USD 100mn):

    NTB is one of the smaller listed private banks with a loan book

    of LKR 77bn (+9% YoY) representing a market share of c.6%.NTBs deposit base stood at LKR 92bn (+13% YoY)

    representing a market share of c.6.2% among private sector

    banks.

    CAL expects NTBs loans to grow 12% in 2013E even amidst

    the subdued economic conditions prevailed in 1H2013. NTBs

    higher fee based income from its growing credit card business

    and bond trading to supplement relatively stable core profits.

    However, NTBs cost-to-income ratios are anticipated to

    remain higher (c.57%) as NTB initiates its branch expansion

    program to improve its CASA base which currently stands atc.22%. NTB has opened 5 branches in 1H2013 and intends to

    open 10 branches during the year.

    In 1H2013, NTBs earnings were LKR 980mn (+5% YoY) and

    CAL expects earnings to reach LKR 2.2bn (+14% YoY) for

    2013E which translates into a PER of 5.8x and PBV of 1.1x at

    current prices. CALs 2013E target price for NTB is LKR 78,

    +39% from current prices and we expect a dividend yield of4.5%. BUY

    35

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    125130

    Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

    Index

    NTB ASPI

    Market Cap (USD): 100mn

    1 Year Avg. Daily T/O (USD): 113k

    1 Year Price H/L (LKR): 68.9/51.8

    Free Float: 80%

    Current Price (LKR): 56

    2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest margin 5.37% 5.80% 6.00% 6.25%

    Cost-to-income 66% 60% 57% 55%

    Average ROE 20.9% 20.8% 20.4% 23.4%

    Average ROA 1.74% 1.74% 1.72% 2.01%

    Loan Growth 39.3% 20.0% 11.6% 20.0%

    * Net inter est income+Fee based income-Operat ing ex penses

    YEAR END DEC (LKR mn) 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest income 4,404 5,755 6,987 8,417

    Net interest income growth 31% 21% 20%

    Core Profit* 2,093 3,118 4,088 5,145

    Core Profit growth 49% 31% 26%

    Profi t attributable to equity holders 1,607 1,951 2,231 3,006Profit growth 21% 14% 35%

    EPS (LKR) 7.0 8.5 9.7 13.0

    NAVPS 37.4 43.8 50.9 60.6

    PER (x) 8.0 6.6 5.8 4.3

    P/BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9

    DPS (LKR) 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.4

    Dividend Yield % 3.6% 3.7% 4.5% 6.1%

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    Sampath Bank [SAMP.N0000] to deliver 1-yeartotal return of +30.6%: BUY

    Sampath Bank (SAMP LKR 179; Market Cap USD 225mn): SAMP is

    the third largest private commercial bank in Sri Lanka with a loan

    book o f LKR 237bn and a c.16% private bank market share. In 2013E,SAMP is likely to maintain loan book growth at c.23%. SAMPs net

    interest margins are likely to marginally improve from 4.89% in 2012

    to 5% in 2013E on the back of higher low-cost foreign borrowings

    raised during the year and above average CASA base (c.33% for

    2013E vs. indust ry avg. o f 27% for 2012). SAMP raised USD 100mn i n

    2013 which may reduce the average cost of funding by 6bps as

    hedging costs are partly reduced due to assets in Bangladesh.

    The cost-to-income ratio of the bank is also likely to improve on

    consolidation of the branch network as the extensive branchexpansion (+80 branches from 2009) slows down. SAMPs share

    price collapsed 21% from a high of LKR 240 in Feb 2013. In 1H2013,

    one-time charge of LKR 989mn out of the LKR 1.6bn overall

    impairment charge was provided for pawning advances (c.25% of

    loan book) as global gold prices tumbled 26% (Jan-June 2013).

    However, CAL has factored in a conservative USD 1100/oz. gold price

    and 8% impairment rate which provides a LKR 1.2bn impairment

    charge on gold loans for 2013E vs. previous LKR 356mn. However,

    gold prices in the local market stands atc

    . USD 1535/oz. (includes a10% import duty). CALs revised target price for SAMP is LKR 224

    (+25%) with a dividend yield of 5.7% for 2013E. BUY

    36

    FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

    Net interest margin 4.77% 4.89% 5.01% 4.88%

    Cost-to-income 73% 68% 60% 57%

    Average ROE 16.3% 21.4% 16.2% 20.7%

    Average ROA 1.67% 1.89% 1.35% 1.65%

    Loan Growth 34.5% 25.5% 22.6% 20.3%

    * Net interest income+Fee based income-Operat ing ex penses

    100

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    135

    140

    Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

    Index

    SAMP ASPI

    Market Cap (USD): 225mn

    1 Year Avg. Daily T/O (USD): 324k

    1 Year Price H/L (LKR): 242/ 178.5Free Float: 85%

    Current Price (LKR): 179

    FYE DEC - LKR mn FY11 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest income 9,288 12,039 15,179 17,771

    Net interest income growth 30% 26% 17%

    Core Profit* 2,975 4,622 7,150 8,894

    Core Profit growth 55% 55% 24%

    Profit attributable to equity holders 3,683 5,343 4,609 6,749

    Profit growth 45% -14% 46%

    EPS (LKR) 22.1 31.9 27.5 40.2

    NAVPS 136.0 162.2 180.9 208.3

    PER (x) 8.1 5.6 6.5 4.4

    P/BV (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

    DPS (LKR) 8.5 11.6 10.2 14.9

    Dividend Yield % 4.8% 6.5% 5.7% 8.3%

    C i l B k [COMB X0000] t d li 1

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    Commercial Bank [COMB.X0000] to deliver 1-year total return of +26%: BUYCommercial Bank (COMB V LKR 114.1, NV LKR 88; Market Cap

    USD 717mn): COMB is the largest private sector commercial

    bank in SL with a loan book of LKR 373bn (+19 YoY) and a

    c.29% private bank market share. CAL forecasts COMBs loanbook to grow in line with industry loan growth at 17% for 2013E.

    COMBs larger CASA base (c.42% for 2013E), low cost IFC loans

    and foreign deposits may enable COMB to maintain NIMs at

    2012 levels (c.5.4%) despite lower yields from higher liquid

    assets. COMB borrowed USD75mn via a subordinated loan f rom

    IFC in 2012 consequent to raising USD65mn in 2012. Benefits

    from recent branch additions (2010-12) and consolidation of

    bank branches will enable COMBs cost-to-income ratios to

    improve to 50% in 2013E from 51% in 2012. CAL expectsCOMBs core profi tability to grow 13% to LKR 14.4bn in 2013E.

    COMB also provides an attractive dividend yield of 5.4% for the

    voting and 7.1% for the non voting share. COMBs size and

    higher than avg. liquidity (+2.3x) makes it investible for foreigninvestors. Larger dominant banks in regional peer countries

    trade at a 47% premium to their smaller counterparts which may

    just ify a c.40% premium for COMB. CALs 2013E target pri ce for

    COMB.X is LKR125 (+10%) and LKR105 (19%) for the non-vot ing

    share. CAL recommends a HOLD on COMB.N and BUY onCOMB.X currently trades at a PER of 7.6x on 2013E and PBV of

    1.3x.

    37

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    125

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    Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

    COMB COMB.X ASPI

    Market Cap (USD): 715mn

    1 Year Avg. Daily T/O (USD): 29k

    1 Year Price H/L (LKR): 102/ 85

    Free Float: 100%

    Current Price (LKR): 88.00

    2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest margin 5.10% 5.39% 5.16% 5.44%

    Cost-to-income 52% 51% 50% 45%

    Average ROE 20.2% 20.8% 17.4% 20.1%

    Average ROA 1.95% 2.11% 1.95% 1.95%

    Loan Growth 26.6% 18.6% 10.8% 18.1%* Net interest income+Fee based income-Operating expenses

    FYE Mar - LKR mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest income 18,678 22,852 25,004 30,565

    Net interest income growth 22% 9% 22%

    Core Profit* 10,479 12,882 14,496 19,260

    Core Profit growth 23% 13% 33%

    Profit attributable to equity holders 7,932 10,080 9,765 12,714

    Profit growth 27% -3% 30%

    EPS (LKR) 9.3 11.9 11.5 15.0

    NAVPS 52.0 62.4 69.9 79.5

    PER (x) (Voting) 12.2 9.6 9.9 7.6

    P/BV (x) (Voting) 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4

    PER (x) (Non Voting) 9.4 7.4 7.6 5.9

    P/BV (x) (Non Voting) 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.1

    DPS (LKR) 5.8 6.4 6.2 8.1

    Dividend Yield % (Voting) 5.1% 5.6% 5.5% 7.1%

    Dividend Yield % (Non Voting) 6.6% 7.3% 7.1% 9.2%

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    National Development Bank [NDB.N0000] todeliver 1-year total return of +12.5%: HOLDNational Development Bank (NDB V LKR 143; Market Cap USD

    117mn): NDB is the 5th largest private sector bank with a loan book

    of LKR 130bn and a c.8.4% private bank market share. The bank

    commenced operations as a development bank and now functions

    as a fully fledged commercial bank. NDB was able to grow its

    assets by 17% in 2012. CAL expects NDBs loan book to grow

    c.12% in 2013E due to the delay in obtaining the proposed low cost

    USD250mn foreign loan facil ity.

    In 1H2013, NDBs fee based income grew 20% YoY to LKR 690mn

    while cost to-income ratio improved marginally f rom 66% in 1H2012

    to 64% in 1H2013 amidst 5 branches being added YTD, leading to

    core profits growing 33% YoY to LKR 1.5bn. CAL expects 2013E

    core profit s to grow 23% YoY to LKR 3.7bn and recurring net prof its

    to marginally grow 4% YoY to LKR3.2bn.

    NDB currently trades at a 2013E PER of 7.3x and PBV of 0.9x. CAL

    maintains a HOLD on NDB based on lower ROEs (13% for 2013E)

    and a revised target price of LKR 153 ( +7%) which may provide a

    total 1-yr return of 12.5%, including a dividend yield of 5.5%. HOLD

    38

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    150

    160

    Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13

    NDB ASPI

    Market Cap (USD): 177mn

    1 Year Avg. Daily T/O (USD): 155k1 Year Price H/L (LKR): 182.5/118.1

    Free Float: 96%

    Current Price (LKR): 143

    FYE Mar - LKR mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Net interest income 4,909 5,896 7,206 9,167

    Net interest income growth 20% 22% 27%

    Core Profit* 2,845 3,043 3,749 5,189

    Core Profit growth 7% 23% 38%

    Profi t attributable to equi ty holders 2,527 8,854 3,229 4,374

    Profit growth 250% -64% 35%

    EPS (LKR) 15.4 53.9 19.7 26.6

    NAVPS 103.1 151.5 153.3 169.3

    PER (x) 9.3 2.6 7.3 5.4

    P/BV (x) 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.8

    DPS (LKR) 7.5 15.0 7.9 10.7

    Dividend Yield % 5.3% 10.5% 5.5% 7.5%

    FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

    Net interest margin 4.33% 4.11% 4.21% 4.33%

    Cost-to-income 58% 60% 59% 55%

    Average ROE 15.7% 35.3% 12.9% 16.5%

    Average ROA 2.01% 1.87% 1.71% 1.91%

    Loan Growth 43.6% 17.9% 12.2% 17.4%* Net intere st income+Fee based income-Operating expe nses

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    Appendix : Summary Financial Statements

    39

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    40

    Hatto

    nNation

    alBank

    -IS

    Hatton National Bank - Income Statement

    As at 31 December 2012 2013E 2014E

    Income 55,160 68,798 80,487

    Interest income 47,940 60,832 70,786

    Less: Interest expenses 25,496 33,659 40,320

    Net interest income 22,444 27,173 30,465Fee and commission income 3,833 4,408 5,290

    Less: Fee and commission expenses 64 353 423

    Net fee and commission income 3,769 4,056 4,867Net interest, fee and commission income 26,213 31,229 35,332

    Net loss from trading (1,624) (1,488) (1,936)

    Net gain from financial investments 114 213 213

    Other operating income 4,897 4,833 6,135

    Total Operating income 29,600 34,786 39,743Less: Impairment charge/(reversal) for loans and other losses (1,162) (3,037) (1,178)

    Net operating income 28,438 31,749 38,565

    OPERATING EXPENSES

    Personnel expenses 7,104 6,361 8,671

    Premises, equipment and establishment expenses 3,481 3,917 4,324

    Other overhead expenses 5,929 6,782 7,481

    16,514 17,060 20,476

    Operating profit before value added tax (VAT) 11,924 14,689 18,089

    Less: Value added tax (VAT) on financial services 1,248 1,431 1,820Operating profit after value added tax (VAT) 10,676 13,258 16,270

    Share of profit/(loss) of Associates (net of income tax) 17 17 18

    PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX 10,693 13,275 16,288

    Less: Income tax expense 2,421 3,717 4,561

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 8,271 9,558 11,727

    Profit attributable to Equity holders of the Bank 8,111 9,415 11,551

    Profit attributable to Non-controlling interests 160 143 176

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 8,271 9,558 11,727

    Hatton Nat ona Ban - Statement o F nanc a Pos t on

    As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

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    41

    Hatto

    nNation

    alBank

    -BS

    As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    ASSETS

    Cash and cash equivalents 7,576 8,849 16,343 8,533

    Balances with central banks 18,698 19,950 25,605 30,190

    Placements with banks 8,244 11,667 4,872 5,359

    Derivative financial instruments 497 345 351 411

    Other financial assets held for trading 2,408 1,078 2,625 2,193

    Non-current assets held for sale 3 3 3 3

    Loans and receivables to other customers 257,435 303,922 350,732 410,991

    Financial investments - Available-for-sale 51,435 58,929 67,488 78,961

    Financial investments - Held-to-maturity 1,698 1,644 1,875 2,193

    Financial investments - Loans and receivables 15,362 20,904 22,496 26,320

    Investments in Associates 384 386 404 422

    Investment properties 169 165 160 155

    Property, plant and equipment 15,416 17,815 18,285 18,881

    Intangible assets 671 690 710 731

    Deferred tax assets 319 372 372 372

    Other assets 10,982 12,680 13,872 16,231

    Total assets 391,297 459,399 526,192 601,947

    LIABILITIES

    Due to banks 19,885 30,401 38,799 48,212

    Derivative financial instruments 618 1,436 2,551 3,319

    Due to other customers 290,912 340,848 374,932 438,671

    Dividends payable 170 223 277 340

    Other borrowings 8,876 6,747 17,537 9,042

    Debt securities issued - 150 150 150

    Current tax liabilities 1,094 1,840 2,230 2,736

    Bills payable 1,404 1,431 1,431 1,431

    Subordinated debentures 4,989 4,563 8,813 8,813

    Insurance provision - Life 3,021 3,626 4,170 4,796

    Insurance provision - General 944 969 1,018 1,069

    Deferred tax liabilities 1,225 1,556 1,556 1,556

    Other provisions 5,877 4,400 5,261 6,165Other liabilities 9,924 8,614 9,045 9,497

    Total Liabilities 348,940 406,805 467,770 535,796

    EQUITY

    Stated capital 11,451 12,579 12,579 12,579

    Statutory reserves 2,778 4,531 4,719 4,950

    Retained earnings 3,504 5,322 8,429 12,818

    Other reserves 23,841 29,193 31,582 34,514

    Total equity attributable to equity holders of the Bank 41,575 51,624 57,309 64,862

    Non-controlling interests 782 969 1,113 1,289

    Total Equity 42,357 52,594 58,422 66,150

    Total Liabilities and Equity 391,297 459,399 526,192 601,947

    NAVPS 104.2 129.4 143.7 162.6

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    42

    Natio

    nsTrust

    Bank-IS

    As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Income

    Interest Income 9,795 15,113 18,574 21,560

    Interest Expense (5,391) (9,358) (11,587) (13,143)

    Net Interest Income 4,404 5,755 6,987 8,417

    Fees and Commission Income 1,850 2,285 2,794 3,363

    Fees and Commission Expense (144) (163) (210) (252)

    Net Fees and Commission Income 1,706 2,122 2,584 3,111

    Net Trading Income 72 288 (262) (174)

    Other Operating Income 312 228 277 333

    Total Operating Income 6,494 8,392 9,586 11,687

    Net Operating Income 6,728 7,960 9,092 11,224

    Personnel Expenses 1,901 2,097 2,608 3,276

    Depreciation of Property, Plant and Equipment 230 267 292 335

    Amortization of Intangible Assets 95 113 99 119

    Other Operating Expenses 1,791 2,283 2,484 2,654

    Total Operating Expenses 4,017 4,759 5,484 6,383

    Operating Profit Before Value Added Tax (VAT) 2,712 3,202 3,608 4,840

    Value Added Tax (VAT) on Financial Services 376 435 510 666

    Profit Before Income Tax 2,336 2,766 3,098 4,175

    Income Tax Expense 729 815 868 1,169

    Profit for the Year 1,607 1,951 2,231 3,006

    EPS 6.97 8.46 9.67 13.03

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    43

    Natio

    nsTrust

    Bank-B

    S

    As at 31 December 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Assets

    Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,533 3,694 2,534 2,134 2,200

    Balances with Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2,416 4,284 5,089 5,251 6,302

    Reverse Repurchase Agreements 3,484 6,614 2,712 2,896 3,475

    Derivative Financial Instruments 62 255 328 369 443

    Financial Assets - Held for Trading 16,033 6,550 21,088 24,133 27,801

    Financial Assets - Held to Maturity 8,242 11,818 10,238 11,584 13,901Other Financial Assets 3,140 2,898 1,893 2,896 2,317

    Loans and Advances to Customers 43,938 61,188 73,424 81,959 98,351

    Other Assets 1,858 2,280 2,591 2,951 3,541

    Property, Plant and Equipment 1,788 1,891 1,908 2,082 2,266

    Intangible Assets 679 600 642 773 999

    Total Assets 83,174 102,073 122,447 137,028 161,596

    Liabilities

    Due to Banks 1,202 1,277 2,796 3,020 3,262

    Repurchase Agreements 17,391 14,480 11,833 13,113 15,736

    Derivative Financial Instruments 360 316 528 592 663

    Due to Customers 49,025 67,633 86,190 96,533 115,839

    Debt Issued and Other Borrowed Funds 4,065 5,409 6,334 7,213 7,099

    Current Tax Liabilities 583 235 544 607 744

    Other Liabilities 3,788 3,859 3,846 3,923 4,001

    Deferred Tax Liabilities 13 236 280 280 280

    76,426 93,444 112,352 125,282 147,625

    Equity Attributable to Equity Holders of the Parent

    Stated Capital 4,368 5,101 5,101 5,101 5,101

    Statutory Reserve Fund 156 224 314 416 555

    Retained Earnings 2,225 3,034 4,044 5,191 6,736

    Other Reserves - 269 636 1,037 1,579

    6,749 8,628 10,095 11,746 13,970

    Total Liabi li ties and Equity 83,174 102,073 122,447 137,028 161,596

    NAVPS 29.3 37.4 43.8 50.9 60.6

    Sampath Bank - Income Statement

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    44

    Samp

    athBank

    -IS

    As at 31 December 2012 2013E 2014E

    Income 39,725 48,667 56,647

    Interest income 32,712 43,190 50,607

    Less: Interest expenses 20,673 28,011 32,836

    Net interest incom e 12,039 15,179 17,771Fee and commission income 2,877 3,337 3,604

    Less: Fee and commission expenses 675 751 793

    Net fee and commission income 2,202 2,586 2,811

    Net interest , fee and com m ission incom e 14,241 17,765 20,582Net loss from trading 6 343 320

    Other operating income 4,130 2,140 2,436

    T otal Operating incom e 18,377 20,249 23,338Less: Impairment charge/(reversal) for loans and other losses (152) (2,020) (819)

    Less: Impairment gain / ( loss) on financial investments 72 0 0

    Net operating income 18,297 18,228 22,519

    OPERATING EXPENSES

    Personnel expenses 4,329 4,777 5,256

    Depreciation of property & equipment 588 615 629

    Amortisation of intangible assets 47 56 64

    Other operating expenses 4,654 5,168 5,739

    Other Operating Expenses 9,619 10,616 11,688

    Operating profit before value added tax (VAT) 8,678 7,613 10,831

    Less: Value added tax (VAT) on financial services 1,161 1,115 1,448

    PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX 7,517 6,498 9,383

    Less: Income tax expense 2,172 1,884 2,627

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 5,346 4,613 6,756

    Profit attributable to Equity holders of the Bank 5,343 4,609 6,749

    Profit attributable to Non-controlling interests 3 5 7

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 5,346 4,613 6,756

    Sampath Bank - Statement of Financial Position

    31 b 2011 2012 2013 201

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    45

    Samp

    athBank

    -BS

    As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    ASSETS

    Cash and cash equivalents 10,747 10,442 18,265 15,295

    Balances with Central Bank of Sri Lanka 13,232 17,201 15,765 18,601

    Placements with Banks 5,337 8,788 9,843 11,024

    Reverse repurchase agreements 4,606 3,300 4,084 4,819

    Derivative financial instruments 204 279 261 314

    Financial investments held -for- trading 23,053 35,181 36,535 43,983

    Financial assets held-for-trading pledged as collaterals 4,003 2,856 4,376 5,163

    Loans and receivables from banks 442 816 729 861Loans and receivables from other customers 171,977 212,480 260,966 314,166

    Other loans & receivables 5,736 10,224 12,252 14,457

    Financial investments- available- for- sale 2,025 1,924 2,088 3,142

    Financial investments- held - to- maturity 19 10 15 18

    Property and equipment 6,691 6,764 6,397 6,114

    Intangible assets 73 316 261 490

    Deferred tax asset 2 12 12 12

    Other assets 2,847 3,731 4,104 4,514

    Total assets 250,995 314,326 375,951 442,972

    LIABILITIESDue to banks 1,176 668 875 1,033

    Securities sold under re-purchase agreements 4,101 2,751 3,654 4,398

    Derivative financial instruments 311 382 646 646

    Due to other customers 195,094 243,088 291,706 344,213

    Debt issued and other borrowed funds 21,490 32,218 40,839 48,190

    Unclaimed dividend 37 49 43 62

    Current tax liabilities 1,881 3,036 2,261 3,153

    Deferred tax liabilities 396 431 431 431

    Provisions 138 180 199 219

    Other liabilities 3,503 4,247 4,884 5,617

    Total Liabilities 228,128 287,051 345,537 407,962

    EQUITY

    Stated capital 2,744 3,564 4,458 4,458

    Statutory / risk reserve funds 858 1,199 1,429 1,767

    Revaluation reserve 2,879 2,876 2,876 2,876

    Available-for-sale reserve 1,798 1,465 1,465 1,465

    Revenue reserves 14,529 18,110 20,120 24,372

    Total equity attributable to equity holders of the Bank 22,807 27,214 30,348 34,938

    Non-controlling interests 60 61 66 73

    Total Equity 22,867 27,275 30,414 35,011

    Total Liabilities and Equity 250,995 314,326 375,951 442,972

    NAVPS 136 162 181 208

    Commercial Bank - Income Statement

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    46

    Comm

    ercialB

    ank-IS

    As at 31 December 2012 2013E 2014E

    Income 63,374 71,809 83,677

    Interest income 52,663 62,517 73,308

    Less: Interest expenses 29,811 37,514 42,743

    Net interest income 22,852 25,004 30,565Fee and commission income 4,147 4,769 5,484

    Less: Fee and commission expenses 549 668 768Net fee and commission income 3,598 4,101 4,716

    Net interest, fee and commission income 26,450 29,105 35,282Net loss from trading 2,494 1,383- 1,556-

    Net gain from financial investments 32 30 30

    Other operating income 4,038 4,523 4,884

    Total Operating income 33,014 32,274 38,640Less: Impairment charge/(reversal) for loans and o 3,158 2,152 2,565

    Less: Impairment gain / ( loss) on financial investm - - -

    Net operating income 29,856 30,122 36,075

    Personnel expenses 7,837 8,551 9,483

    Other operating expenses 5,731 6,058 6,539

    13,568 14,609 16,022

    Operating profit before value added tax (VAT) 16,288 15,513 20,053

    Less: Value added tax (VAT) on financial services 1,987 1,949 2,392

    Operating profit after value added tax (VAT) 14,301 13,564 17,661

    Share of profit/(loss) of Associates (net of income 12 14 16

    PROFIT BEFORE INCOME TAX 14,313 13,564 17,661

    Less: Income tax expense 4,232 3,798 4,945

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 10,081 9,766 12,716

    Profit attributable to Equity holders of the bank 10,080 9,765 12,714

    Non-controlling interest 1 1 2

    PROFIT FOR THE YEAR 10,081 9,766 12,716

    EPS 11.9 11.5 15.0

    Commercial Bank - Statement of Financial Position

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    47

    Comm

    ercialB

    ank-BS

    As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    ASSETS

    Cash and cash equivalents 12,935 19,752 17,928 24,024

    Balances with Central Banks 17,343 18,168 19,199 21,216

    Placements with banks 11,674 16,163 6,465 7,112

    Derivative financial instruments 40 1,351 1,446 1,707

    Other financial assets held for trading 6,418 6,041 7,912 7,785

    Loans and receivables to banks 580 629 629 629

    Loans and receivables to other customers 314,327 372,857 413,205 487,835

    Financial investments - Available-for-sale 61,415 57,963 87,916 103,795

    Investments in associates 120 94 104 114

    Property, plant & equipment 8,503 8,947 8,297 7,635

    Intangible assets 475 506 464 420

    Leasehold property 113 112 110 109

    Deferred tax assets 364 458 458 458

    Other assets 7,290 9,179 9,671 9,671

    Total assets 441,598 512,221 573,804 672,508

    LIABILITIES

    Due to banks 11,574 4,764 5,327 5,959Derivative financial instruments 435 84 93 110

    Due to other customers 323,698 390,569 439,579 518,973

    Other borrowings 49,455 47,566 52,986 60,823

    Current tax liabilities 1,307 2,822 1,899 2,473

    Deferred tax liabilities 1,640 1,890 1,890 1,890

    Other provisions 1 2 2 2

    Other liabilities 8,214 10,417 11,570 13,659

    Subordinated term debts 1,106 1,106 1,109 1,109

    Total liabilities 397,429 459,220 514,457 604,998

    EQUITY

    Stated capital 16,474 18,009 19,791 22,093

    Statutory reserves 2,890 3,433 3,962 4,637

    Retained earnings 2,588 4,173 4,661 5,297

    Other reserves 22,187 27,353 30,899 35,448

    Total equity to equity owners of the Bank 44,139 52,968 59,313 67,475

    Non-Controlling Interest 30 32 33 35

    Total equity 44,169 53,001 59,347 67,511

    441,598 512,221 573,804 672,508

    NAVPS 52.0 62.4 69.9 79.5

    S As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

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    48

    NationalDevel

    opmentBank-IS As at 31 December 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    Income

    Interest income 11,655 17,150 22,290 27,024

    Interest expense (6,745) (11,254) (15,084) (17,858)

    Net interest income 4,909 5,896 7,206 9,167

    Net fee and commission income 1,916 1,644 1,966 2,369

    Net trading income/(expense) 448 1,272 1,172 1,312Other operating income 648 6,127 1,258 1,504

    Total operating income 7,922 14,938 11,601 14,352

    Impairment charge/ (reversal) for loans and other losses (88) 51 249 385

    Net operating income 8,010 14,887 11,352 13,967

    Less: Operati ng Expenses

    Personnel expenses 2,118 2,333 2,809 3,225

    Depreciation of property, plant & equipment 199 205 242 279

    Amortisation of intangible assets 51 96 112 145

    Other operating expenses 1,613 1,862 2,260 2,698

    Total operating expenses 3,981 4,496 5,423 6,347

    Operating profit before value added tax 4,030 10,391 5,929 7,620

    Value Added Tax (VAT) on financial services (505) (622) (1,104) (1,084)

    Operating profit after value added tax 3,525 9,769 4,825 6,535

    Share of associate companies profit 331 439 21 28

    Profit before tax 3,855 10,207 4,846 6,563

    Income tax expense (1,093) (1,275) (1,551) (2,100)

    Profit for the year 2,763 8,932 3,295 4,463

    Profit attributable to equity holders of the parent 2,527 8,854 3,229 4,374

    Profit attributable to minority interest 235 78 66 89

    Profit for the year 2,763 8,932 3,295 4,463

    EPS 15.4 53.9 19.7 26.6

    SAs a t 31 Decem be r 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

    ASSETS

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    49

    NationalDevelopmentB

    ank-BS ASSETSCash and cash equivalents 2,508 2,519 3,635 2,281 2,623

    Balances with Central Bank 3,077 4,614 6,075 6,321 7,356

    Placements with banks - 518 3,559 7,383 11,898

    S ecurities purchased under resale agreements 2,155 912 3,325 4,252 6,852

    Financial assets held for trading 8,187 7,106 983 7,825 12,611

    Derivative financial instruments 141 1,402 1,706 3,802 2,915

    Other financial assets held for trading 1,852 2,087 10,412 5,236 8,438

    Loans and advances to banks 1,817 1,640 1,183 1,267 1,457

    Loans and advances to customers 65,045 93,166 109,649 121,778 142,626

    Lease rentals receivables 2,412 4,650 6,390 8,444 10,234

    Other financial assets classified as loans and receivable 9,179 2,563 3,764 8,867 14,290

    Financial assets - held to maturity 7,680 15,666 19,223 18,498 29,812

    Financial assets - available for sale 7 186 174 526 847

    Investments in associate companies 1,763 1,797 33 55 55

    Other assets 691 963 1,155 1,774 2,040

    Intangible assets 210 318 319 356 421

    Property, plant & equipment 708 1,185 1,223 1,328 1,495

    Investment properties 1,200 1,296 1,296 1,296 1,296

    Total assets 108,635 142,588 174,103 201,287 257,267

    LIABILITIES

    Due to Banks 570 5,924 2,320 6,943 7,932

    S ecurities sold under repurchase agreements 11,475 10,133 12,516 17,049 19,968

    Derivative financial instruments - 1,022 1,737 1,827 2,139

    Due to customers 60,533 82,094 107,394 126,725 145,733

    Debt securities issued and other borrowed funds 13,961 19,466 17,802 15,402 44,682

    Tax liabilities 573 356 634 775 1,050

    Other liabilities 2,825 3,286 3,657 4,140 4,849

    Subordinated term debts 2,625 2,428 2,255 2,303 2,111

    Deferred Tax 60 41 79 79 79

    Total l iabi l i ties 92,622 124,750 148,394 175,243 228,545

    EQUITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO EQUITY HOLDERS OF PARENT

    Stated capital 864 864 864 864 864

    Statutory reserve fund 879 879 879 879 879

    Investment Fund - 387 924 1,332 1,854

    Retained Earnings 13,553 14,796 22,216 22,104 24,206

    15,295 16,925 24,883 25,179 27,803

    Non-controlling interests 717 913 826 866 920

    Total Equity 16,012 17,838 25,709 26,045 28,722

    Total l iabi l i ties and total equity 108,635 142,588 174,103 201,287 257,267

    NAVPS 93.1 103.1 151.5 153.3 169.3

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    Disclaimer

    This document has been prepared and issued on the basis of publicly available information,

    internally developed data and other sources, believed to be reliable. Capital Alliance Securities

    (Private) Limited however does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates

    given constitute a judgment as of the date of the material and are subject to change without

    notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any

    financial instrument. The recipient of this report must make their own independent decision

    regarding any securities, investments or financial instruments mentioned herein. Securities or

    financial instruments mentioned may not be suitable to all investors. Capital Alliance Securities(Private) Limited its directors, officers, consultants, employees, outsourced research providers

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    50

    C

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    Contacts

    Research TeamTel No: +94 11 231 7777 (General)Email : [email protected]

    Head of ResearchPurasisi J inadasa

    Tel No: +94 11 231 7786Email: [email protected]

    Udeeshan J onasTel No: +94 11 231 7746

    Email : [email protected]

    Reshan WediwardanaTel No: +94 11 231 7777 (Ext: 7814)Email : [email protected]

    Dushan De SilvaEmail: [email protected]

    Thushani De SilvaEmail: [email protected]