Banking Outlook Conference 2018

Presenter: Domonic Purviance Senior Financial Specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Th~ opiJ1i<J11s e.,:pres1ce.d llrt! thou tJ/'lhe pW$<'Nl~r 1md ""' those of the F .. d~n,/ ft.e3·c•n-e Qa11k of Allunlu ,w flu! Ftttkml Ro ·.-..rn~ or il'tt &,ard ,if (]o,,aNIU'$.

Agenda

• Housing Market Trends • Affordability Outlook • Questions

~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE

DANK • q(ATLA.~A

Housing Market Trends

~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE

DANK • q(ATLA.~A

US E:xilting Home Sa!M ----7.000.000

45'>;

40%

6.000.000

35%

5,000,000 30%

4,000,000 25%

3,000,000 20%

15% t ; 2,000.000 <!I J • t 10% ;!

£ 1.000.000 5% t

~ i 11 > ~ o- ()'JC,

= ,. ·5%

II)

·1,000,000

· 10%

.2.000.000 Sales YoY (Bars) •IS%

-3,000.000 Sales (Line)

·20%

-4,000,000 ·25%

-6,000.000 ~

2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US ExlaUng Home Sain Va lr1¥9nlury ecuio.:NIICIINIIINllrlANootlalrl

7SM 75M

70M 70M

&SM &5M

&OM SOM

SSM S5M

SOM SOM

j 4SM

I 30M

4SM .ft 40M !

I 35M

i 30M .:i

2SM 25M

20M 20M

ISM 1.5M

10M 10M

OSM 05M

OOM OOM

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 2016 2017 2018

US E:xilting Home Inventory ___ .. ___ _ 4,000,000

3,800,000

3,600,000

3.400,000

3 200,000

3000.000

2 800,000

2 800.000

2 400,000

2 200,000

2 000.000

1 800.000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200.000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200.000

0

Inventory (Bars) Months Supply (Line)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201S 201& 2017 20t8

110

100

90

80

40

30

20

1.0

00

Metro Area: ExlaOng Home Sal89 Atlanta-Sandy Spri~. GA. ---UOK

120K

100K

80K

60K

4CK

I 20K

~ i OK :r r ·20K

i w -4CK

-SOK

-SOK

-100K

·120K

-140K

-160K

25%

20%

15%

ll11lli11illillil !Ill~ illllilL :

Sales YoY (Bars) Sales (Line)

-5%

-10%

-15%

·20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Metro Area: Inventory Tarr.,a-St. Patersburg-Claarwalar, FL --

§

!

30K

25K

I 20K

f w 15K

IOI<

5K

OK 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Inventory (Bars) Months Supply (Line)

2015 2016 2017 2018

---· 9.0

9.0

70

60

I 5.0 0

f "'

4.0 Jl ij

"' 3.0

20

1 0

00

US New Home Starts --850.000

800.000

750.000

700,000

'60,000

800,000

660,000

II00.000

I <50,000

t 000,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

·~ I

----~

1111111111111111 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201.t 2015 2016 2017 2018

Metro Area: Starla by MSA - 4Q17 -- --~Ol'lWorltl.Afll,glotl.TX Houslon. The Woodla'*-Suga, Land TX

AUa~s..cty$ptw'l!ls.Ros'weiGA

Pf'loefu~sa.SCOl~AZ Ausk'l,Round Rod;, TX

Orlani»K&Sffll'nH.S-,rord H Wwmgt.Ol'I-MnglM,AJe:Xill'ldna (IC..VA.Ml).VN

C~on:l·GMeonla NC.SC SanArllonlo,Niew8ra"'*'9. TX

Oen~ ~ora LIM'WOOd CO Tatnl)ii-$1 ~.Qul'W-'lllf.f'I. l.MV~.P~lN

AIWl'~San htnard,no,Onlar'IO CA ~ OaYldSoM-·Murl'ff'KIOl'o Franll.lln. TN

F°taleilghN(; los Afl9*S,,long 8HCh·Anahitlm CA

M~I P'w-8looff'ilnglon MN-WI

,..,..,..ron~ ... ~Pillmkath.f'I. Jac.kiOtlwltf'I.

$Nme·Tatoma~ WA

Chc:agoNa~~ IL IN-WI ~.C&mden,.\~on PA,NJOEMO

Sacr11mein1!>-ROMY11t,,.kdel'l·A/UditCA .... ~ll'meMnderson IN S.W

NtwYOl1c-Ncw.ll't·Jfflcy(lly NY.NJ.PA 4,86t $.an f'rM•tts,co.0.-;1¥1C1.Hayw,,nS CA o sa

$1111 L* C,ty. VT ,.»t 8.n.nor~TOWSOl'I.MO 41t.l

San~CA 4.1~ POttl.lntJ.Vl!N.~·l-lilsbolo.0i:t·WA ).748

Cdot<ldo$pnr,,gs..CO 3.W OIJl'harn,QlapetM•. NC 2 16l

Na~·Martolt:llnd.H ~ 2M Tuuon N. - .U11

San.Jow,.S~SatllaCllraCA - 2.076 ~le~.UT - IIISl

8a~CA- 11Sl ~.Nt.t - 1.508 Pcrt&Lucie.H - 9M

SatltaFe.NM . 295 Btunswiek QA )O

11.930

""" 10,$~

"-"' "" 9)C7

u s,

'·"' "'" '"' ""

13980

U.SS&

1ua1

OK 1K 2K 3K 4K SK 6K 7K 8K 9K 10K 11K 12K 13K 14K 15K 16K 17K 18K 19K 20K 21K 22K 23K 24K 25K 26K 27K 28K 29K 30K 31K 32K 33K 34K 35K Ann Start&

Metro Area: Annual 8ta.rta by Zip Code J\lflllla-&ln(t/~I, QA --NOTE: Ot11en Zip Codes have at least 500 annual starts.

Mitro Ane: Annual Starts Allalmt-&lr,dy SJIII~~. 0A --

60.000

55,000

50.000

45.000

40,000

i 35,000

<ii C C <(

30,000

25.000

20.000

15,000

10.000

5,000

0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 201S 2017

----_ ... -­ll!I--

Metro Area: Annual 8ta.rta by Zip Code J\lflllla-&ln(t/~I, QA --NOTE: Ot11en Zip Codes have at least 500 annual starts.

Mitro Ane: Annual Starts Allalmt-&lr,dy SJIII~~. 0A --

60.000

55,000

50.000

45.000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25.000

20.000

15,000

10.000

5,000

2005 2007 11111111111111111

2009 2011 2013 201S 2017

----_.,. -­ll!I--

Matro Area: Annual Starts Atlanta-Sandy Sprir.,Roawell, GA a.u .. ,-....,,

60,000

55,000

50,000

45,000

40,000

"' 35,000 t:'.

"' w C: 30,000 C: <(

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

,,,.pll< .. _.. .. __ ... Q_,..._,, ....... Q!IM __ ...,~~<M. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US Vac:ant O.V.lop•d Lobs --1.200.000

1,100,000

1.000,000

900.000

800,000

700.000

5 > 600,000

500,000

400.000

300,000

200,000

100,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20,0 20\1 20\2 20\3 2016 20\7 2018

Metro Area: Vacant Developed Lot Supply

------:-\

I Un ted Statec;

._.~

Metro Area: VDL Supply by Zip Code NNIMIIM>1Adlllm._..ulflwboro-f'n'*lln, TN December 2009 --NOTE: Blue Zip Codes have al least 1,000 VOLS

Mitro ArH: Vacant Developtld Lota N ....... ~-Mi'""-bol'o-4'nnllit, TN --19.000

18.000

17.000

16.000

15.000

14.000

13.000

12.000

11.000

i5 10,000 >

9,000

8.000

7,000

6.000

5,000

4.000

3.000

2,000

1.000

0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

-­.......01 r.-t1L _.,. --111--

Metro Area: VDL Supply by Zip Code NNIMIIM>1Adlllm._..ulflwboro-f'n'*lln, TN December 2017 --NOTE: Blue Zip Codes have al least 1,000 VOLS

Mitro ArH: Vacant Developtld Lota N ....... ~-Mi'""-bol'o-4'nnllit, TN --19.000

18.000

17.000

16.000

15.000

14.000

13.000

12.000

11 .000

i5 10,000 >

9,000

8.000

7,000

6.000

5,000

4.000

3.000

2,000

1.000

0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

-­.......01 r.-t1L _.,. --111--

Credit Availability

~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE

DANK • q(ATLA.~A

US FICO at Origination D1sb1butlon --

Metro Area: FICO Di81ribution by MSA -- -Allanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Ba1bmore-TOW50n, MO

Boston-Cambridge..Quincy, MA-NH

Chartotte-Gasionia-Rock Hill, NC-SC

Ct'IM:~liet-Nape,ville, ll·IN-\1111

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

Detroit-Warrer'K.ivonia, Ml

Fort Lauderdale.Pompano Se.ch-Deerfield Beach, FL

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar land. TX

Jacksonville, Fl

LH Vegas-Paradise, tN

Los Angeles-Long 8Mt-h-Gfendate. CA

Mra,noa,.Fort Lauderdale-West Pam Be.ch, FL

MinMapol!,'.S-St.. Paul-Sbomington. MN-VIII

NashVllle-OavidsM-Murfreesboto-Franklin, TN New Yodc-Notthern New Jersey-long Island, NY-NJ.PA

Otiando-Kissirnmff.Sanfotd, Fl Philade1phia-Camden-Wilmington. PA-NJ-OE-MO

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

S.etamento-Roseville-Arden-~acJ.. CA

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Martos. CA

San Francisco-Oakland-Hay,.,vard, CA

San Jose-Str.nyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Seattle-Tatom.a-Bellevue. WA

Tampa.S.. Pet•1'$b1Jrg-Clearwate,r, FL

Washington-Atfington-AJe.xanclria, OC-VA-MD-WV

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Oettay Beach, Fl

-~2001

--------~-------------------.,,.~-----------.~ ....

..,.. ""

,,. ... '"' "' ... ,~

,,.

"'

...

"" , ..

"" "'

""

'"

... ··~

,.----. .. ,~

"" .. ..

"''" ~ ---,

..s,. °"' s, 10'\ 1S\, 20'\ 2S\, ~'°' 35, 40\o .ts, so.. ss~ 60\o 65, 70\o ,s, 80\o es, ~ 96\o 100'\ ,os, $hare ol °'9NhOM

• 6ll)tl)7S0 .,,. ...

-·---c--

Metro Area: FICO Di81ribution by MSA -- -Allanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

Ba1bmore-TOW50n, MO

Boston-Cambridge..Quincy, MA-NH

Chartotte-Gasionia-Rock Hill, NC-SC

Ct'IM:~liet-Nape,ville, ll·IN-\1111

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

Detroit-Warrer'K.ivonia, Ml

Fort Lauderdale.Pompano Se.ch-Deerfield Beach, FL

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar land. TX

Jacksonville, Fl

LH Vegas-Paradise, tN

Los Angeles-Long 8Mt-h-Gfendate. CA

Mra,noa,.Fort Lauderdale-West Pam Be.ch, FL

MinMapol!,'.S-St.. Paul-Sbomington. MN-VIII

NashVllle-OavidsM-Murfreesboto-Franklin, TN New Yodc-Notthern New Jersey-long Island, NY-NJ.PA

Otiando-Kissirnmff.Sanfotd, Fl Philade1phia-Camden-Wilmington. PA-NJ-OE-MO

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

S.etamento-Roseville-Arden-~acJ.. CA

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Martos. CA

San Francisco-Oakland-Hay,.,vard, CA

San Jose-Str.nyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Seattle-Tatom.a-Bellevue. WA

Tampa.S.. Pet•1'$b1Jrg-Clearwate,r, FL

Washington-Atfington-AJe.xanclria, OC-VA-MD-WV

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Oettay Beach, Fl

• &ipwnbtr 20#7

,,.. ,,.

... ... ...

'"' ... ... ... ....

... "' .-... ' <W

' Y•

. "' ·- ·~ '" ... -... ...

·,~ .,.

... "" ,. ...

... .... ..s,. °"' s, 10'\ 1S\, 20'\ 2S\, ~'°' 35, 40\o .ts, so.. ss~ 60\o 65, 70\o ,s, 80\o es, ~ 96\o 100'\ ,os,

$hare ol °'9NhOM

• 6ll)tl)7S0 .,,. ...

-·---c--

Home Prices

~ ••

~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE

DANK • q(ATLA.~A

US Home Prt -~.... ceTrend 16.0%

14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

C 6.0% .g ~ 4.0%

j 2.0% 1l ~ 0.0%­

§ :r -2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-12.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Home Price A . Home p · pprec1ation (B nee Index (L. ars) ine)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

X

" V .E

" ·!! a.

~ ~

US Existing vs New Median Homa Price 81aft111Cu.&C-.aniu(IIQC)

$3"0,000

$320,000

$300,000

$280,000

.g Q,

$260,000

" E 0

$240.000 :,: C

~ " :;

$220.000 2' ~ ill $200,000

$180,000

$160.000

$140,000

New Home Price

Existing Home Price

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$3"0,000

$320,000

$300,000

$280,000

$260,000 .. !! Q,

$240.000 .. § :,:: C: ..

$220,000 i lE ~ .. z

$200,000

$180,000

$160,000

$140,000

Metro Area: Home Price Appnciation Rank -- -San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Ctara, CA

Seatll&-Tecoma-Belevue, WA

Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml San Franciaco-Oakland-Hay,,tard, CA

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, Ml

Sac:ramento-ROMvile-Alden-Artade, CA

Denv.t-Aurora-lakewood, CO Noshville,-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Frankbn, TN

Riverside-San B&rnardino-Ontario, CA San O.ego-Carls~San Martos, CA

Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH

Los Angeles-Long Beac~lendale, CA

Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX

Jacksonville. FL

Tam~-Sl Petersbu,v.Qearwater. FL Chaiiotte-Oa&tonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, fl

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswel . GA

Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Fort Lauderdale,.Pompano Beac:h-Oeerfield Beac:h, FL

Chicego-Jot;.1-Naperville, IL-IN-WI

New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA

HOU&ton-lhlt Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Beac:h, FL

West Palm Beach-Boca Ra!M-0.lray Beach, fl

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MO-WV

Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD

Bahimor&-TOW5on. MD

0.0% 1.0% 20%

.. ,. , ....

l(i~

3.0%

.... "" "" ,,~ ....

""

4.0% 5.0%

.... .,,.

6.0%

"" "" "" "''

""' &e~ .... ....

, ...

7.0% 8.0% 9.0% Home Price Appec'8bon

-·---c--.....

104'i,

10.0% 11.0% 12 0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%

Metro Area: Home Price Trend Miami-Fort Loode!d81&-Wt!llt Palm Be&ch, A. Soutt• CcreloglC, 11'1(

260

250

240

230

220

210

200

: 190

l :: 11111 :r

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

1 1m

10,,. ,,1111111 .,1111 llllllllllllllllllll1111111111111111m1 ::

-5.0%

-10.0%

-15.0%

Home Price Appreciation (Bars) Home Price Index (Line) -20.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 ~ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Metro Area: Median Home Prtce by Zip Code Denwlr-Al.ronH.alcewo, co

Bhai = Zip Cod& Madlin Home Plfce la G-Than $250,000

~~

Metro Area: Median Home Price Denwr-AIJroraolakewaod, CO

Bbe = Zip Code Median Harne Pllce la~ Tllan $250,000

$360.000

$340.000

$320.000

$300.000

$280,000

$260,000

$240.000

$220.000

$200.000

$180,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

-­Cllrr.w•-----_.,_ -­!!I--"""'

Metro Area: Median Home Prtce by Zip Code Denwlr-Al.ronH.alcewo, co Bhai = Zip Cod& Madlin Home Plfce la G-Than $250,000

Nowunbar2017 --Metro Area: Median Home Price Denwr-AIJroraolakewaod, CO

Bbe = Zip Code Median Harne Price la~ Tllan $250,000

NoWimb« 21)17 Soun:• Cotelogl(.

$360.000

$340.000

$320.000

$300.000

$280,000

$260,000

$240.000

$220.000

$200.000

$180,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

-­Cllrr.w•-----_.,_ --1!1--"""'

US Statu by Price Point -- -~2006

260,000

240.000

220,000

200.000

180,000

160.000

~ i5 140,000 C C

< 120.000

100,000

80.000

60,000

40.000

20,000

0 $200 Under $200-$249

-

100,418

87.ll19

$250-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$749 $750-$999 lllil

$1M Over

_ ... -­c--

US Statu by Price Point -- · ,,_,,,,,., 2017 -260,000

240.000

220,000

200.000

180,000

160.000

~ i5 140,000 C C

< 120.000

100,000

80.000

60,000 1111.2118 50,987

40.000 34~77

20,000

0

14Ji02 1,,002 -$200 Under $200-$249 $250-$299 $300-$399 $400-$499 $500-$749 $750-$999 $1M Over

Metro Area: Starts under $250,000 Houm!-Tht~tl.Md,TX --NO'l'E: Blua~Cod .. i.v. ....... 1'1'1-~-UndotS:UOMO

\_~

-

Mitro Ane: Starts by Prtc:e Point -Jum, 2/)()l

~ TIit Woodlanda-Sugtt Lard, TX -- ..... 35.000

30.000

27.560

25,000

~ 20.000 (/)

C C <

15.000

10,000

8.223

5,000 I 3.89* 4. 189

1,6 12 -0 UOOUMw $200420 S~-1.299 5300.ll99 .........

1,002 503 - -150()4149 17&0-$9"

580 -l1MOYw

------_ ... -­o--

Metro Area: Starts under $250,000 Houm!-Tht~tl.Md,TX -- • Dllcember 2017

NO'l'E: Blua~Cod .. i.v. ....... 1'1'1-~-UndotS:UOMO

\_~ Mitro Ane: Starts by Prtc:e Point ~ TIit Woodlanda-Sugtt Lard, TX --

35.000

30.000

25,000

~ 20.000 (/)

1 15.000

10,000

6,793 S,913

5,000 I 5.133

4,005

0

-o.-nber 2017

.....

2.980

II 1,888 -UOOUMw $200420 S~-1.299 5300.ll99 ......... 150()4149

339 477 -1760.$"9 l1MOYw

------_.,. -­o--

Metro Area: Starts by Price Point Houston-The Woodl1111d..Sugar Land, TX

35.000

30.000

25.000

"' i5 20,000 <ii C:

~ 15,000

10.000

5.000 4,006

0 S200UndM' $200-$249

- December 2017

-

417

$250.$299 $500.$749 $750,$999 S1M Over

Housing Affordability

~ PRDERAL 11!1~,"'.W R&SERVE

DANK • q(ATLA.~A

US Affordability Index _.,._

ll ~

i " "E .g <(

155

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

BO

2000 2001 2002

Affordability Index (Bars) Mortgage Interest Rate· 30 yr Fixed (Line)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 2()10 2011

8.5%

8.0%

7.5%

7.0%

6.5%

6.0%

5.5%

5.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.5%

2012 2()13 2014 2()15 2016 2()17 2()18

ci--­a .... .._ ... a...,..._ ... Vt,11

CJ ........ ~ CJ ........ ,......... CJ ........ ... a--.... a--.... 13.....,.. .... c:eo.,, ... a---o....._ .... ..... CJ....._ ......... .... CJ....._ ............ . C)~MIIIMtNalCIIL. CJ~ ....... °""' CJ~ ...... --. -a--i CJ~..., ... .,, ..

~ s===w, ! B=:: C 8::::::: ! o....,~w .. a: au ~ O••• ~ 8~ & 8:::-"nc g 8::: ~ 8:=-. a ......... ....... a ............... . a-­a ................ 1111.. a-­a---c ........... ...

a..,... ........ 'tf# ci--CJ .......... p;a: ci­ci--a ....... .......... a ....... ~ g ....... ....

Metro Area: Affordability Index Dalm-Fat Wcl1h,,Mngfart, TX ----"'-

195

190 Affordability Index (Bars) Mortgage Interest Rate - 30 yr Fixed (Line)

185

180

175

i 170

,,. I 166

i ,( 160

156

150

146

140

135

2000 2001 2()()2 2003 2004 2()()5 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013

;:.::TIC a-.., a_ ...

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

a--a-.. a-.. 85% a-"' CJ .............. a--. ...

a-"' 8.0%

a-.. a.........,......., a--CJ•.,._., .. CJ ..... OiA. .....

7 5% a-,. a-,.. a-........ a--

70% 18:::::-u: 0.....,..,,....,0IIIA. i o~...awi ..

65% > D~M i;i a--• - a-... J O..,.....Tlllllifl\lM

6.0% 0--~IA

I e::-::· c: 0......_,.,Mw,TX

55% g, a_.,,, f a_ ... a-"'

o o~wr "' a-...

50% a-... a-... a ...... r:r ........ a-•

4 5% a-.. a-.. a--p a .... Q,.ec.,...._ 40% a-...

CJ-a, a ..... ~ ... a--

3 5% a~ ......... a-a a-.. n ............ ,..,.,

Metro Area: Affordablltty Trend AJrordilblllly lndeic ____ .,_ aore.....,._. •• .,.. .......... i.. .... w•i.....,... -Chicago-Joli,e.t.NapeMlle. IL-tN.WI

Mirv.eapol1s.-St. Paul,-Bloom1ngton, MN.WI

Oetroit·Warren•Livonra, Ml

Atlanta-Sandy Springs,.-Roswel . GA

Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD

Raleigh-Cary. NC Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX Wastw\gton-M1ngton-Alei«1ncfna. OC.VA-MO-WV

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboto--F ranklin, TN

Bal1imore-Ta.vson, MD

Chariotte-Oastonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC

Jacksonville, fl T ampa,-St. Petersburg-Cleaiwater, fl

Orlando-Kl&simmee.S,anford, FL

Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX

Wes1 Palm Beac~Boca Ra1on-De1ray Beach, Fl Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Oeetfietd Beach, fl

Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml Boston-Cambridg,e-Ouincy, MA-NH

Oenver-Aurora-lakewood, CO

Seattl&-T.coma-Belevue, WA

M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Bea,h, FL

Sacramento-Rosevile-Atden-Art::ade, CA

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA

San Oiego-CarlsOOd-San Mart0$, CA

San Jose.Sunnyvale-Sant.a Clara. CA

los Angeles•Long Beath-GlendaJe, CA

San Franciaco-Oakland·Hay,,tard, CA

0 "

10 20 30 40 so

.. ., .. n ..

•1

60 70 80 90 100 Affordabikty Index

,,. 130 ,,.

123

120

113

1'2

10> ...

110 120 130

,,.

140

... ... 1S3

'" ... ... ...

150 160

.. , ...

170

172

180

Metro Area: Affordablltty Trend AJrordilblllly lndeic (ltt#elNt Re = 7 l'9rl:«t) ____ .,_ aore.....,._. •• .,.. .......... i.. .... w•i.....,... -Chicago-Joli,e.t.NapeMlle. IL-tN.WI

Mirv.eapol1s.-St. Paul,-Bloom1ngton, MN.WI

Oetroit·Warren•Livonra, Ml

Atlanta-Sandy Springs,.-Roswel . GA

Philadelphia-Camde~Vi/ilmington, PA-flll-OE-MD

Raleigh-Cary. NC Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

Oa!tas--fort Worth-Allington, TX Wastw\gton-M1ngton-Alei«1ncfna. OC.VA-MO-WV

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboto--F ranklin, TN

Bal1imore-Ta.vson, MD

Chariotte-Oastonia-Rock Hill. NC-SC

Jacksonville, fl T ampa,-St. Petersburg-Cleaiwater, fl

Orlando-Kl&simmee.S,anford, FL

Austin-Round Rock-San Mart0$. TX

Wes1 Palm Beac~Boca Ra1on-De1ray Beach, Fl Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Oeetfietd Beach, fl

Las Vegas-Paradise, Ml Boston-Cambridg,e-Ouincy, MA-NH

Oenver-Aurora-lakewood, CO

Seattl&-T.coma-Belevue, WA

M .. mi-Fort lauderdale-WHt Palm Bea,h, FL

Sacramento-Rosevile-Atden-Art::ade, CA

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA New York-Northern New Jersey-long Island. NY -NJ.PA

San Oiego-CarlsOOd-San Mart0$, CA

San Jose.Sunnyvale-Sant.a Clara. CA

los Angeles•Long Beath-GlendaJe, CA

San Franciaco-Oaklanc:Utay,,tard, CA

0

,. 10 20 30 40

73 .. .. S3

50

•• so 60 70

120

"' "' ... 112

106

106

106

106

100

100

102 ., .. .. .. .. .. "'

80

••

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Affordabikty Index

Metro Area: Afl'ordalllllty by Zip Code AHotdllblllty Index 6 pwc«Jt ftfodtlet,& fnttnat Rm ---NOTlt ............................ - ..... Al'IIMIMt

/ \

\

I '-,.., /-

\ \

I

----AV9.0$ 230 ...... 2210

Metro Area: Afl'ordalllllty by Zip Code AHotdllblllty Index 7 pwc«Jt ftfodtlet,& fnttnat Rm ---NOTlt ............................ - ..... Al'IIMIMt

/ \

\

I '-,.., /-

\ \

I

----AV9.0$ 230 ...... 2210

Conclusions

· Housing Market 2018 • Demand should remain healthy, driven by steady job growth and

1nigration. • The construction of affordable product wi ll continue to be restrained

in many regions as costs continue to increase and lot supplies dimjnjsh.

• Due to tight housing and lot inventory levels, most regions will continue to experience a strain on housing affordability.

Potential Risks Tight supply levels may suppress sales in the housing market. Rising interest rates and declining affordability may lead to • a contraction in demand, • a correction in prices, • and the rise of alternative mortgage instruments.