BANCOSTA Weekly Market Reportnumber of orders. This compares to 48 units amounting to 6.4 million...

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Weekly Market Report

Week 27/2018 (2 July – 6 July)

Comment: Dry bulk fleet review

index

comment page 2

chartering

dry cargo “ 3

tankers “ 6

containers “ 8

sale & purchase

newbuildings / finance “ 9

secondhand / demolition “ 10

commodities

news “ 11

prices “ 13

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2 market report - week 27/2018

Dry bulk deliveries in the first half of this year have slowed down significantly, largely due to a reduced orderbook and also as delivery slippages continued at an estimated 36% over these 6 months. During this period, deliveries fell 45.2% year-on-year to 15.0 million dwt, or down 50.5% in unit terms to 156 vessels. Supramaxes, Panamaxes, and Handysizes have formed the bulk of deliveries in unit terms, accounting for 31%, 22%, and 22% respectively of the total number of deliveries seen so far. In terms of deadweight, Capesizes and VLOCs formed a majority of 25% and 23% respectively.

After assuming delivery slippages, deliveries in 2018 could come in at around 27 million dwt or around 280 units – a slower pace compared to 37 million dwt or 426 units in 2017. An increase in Valemax deliveries is expected this year based on the current orderbook – 6 Valemaxes have already been delivered in the first half of this year, and another 14 Valemaxes are expected to be delivered in the remainder of the year, barring any delivery slippages.

However, while the slower pace of dry bulk deliveries is good news for a market that is finally rebalancing from the oversupply of past years, demolition activity has also decelerated greatly. In the first half of this year, demolitions fell 69.0% year-on-year to 2.7 million dwt, or down 76.5% in unit terms to just 28 vessels. For comparison, 191 units equivalent to 13.5 million dwt had been scrapped in the whole of 2017, and this was already a low level compared to the peak of 493 units amounting to 32.2 million dwt scrapped in 2012.

Scrapping of Post-Panamaxes and VLOCs have been virtually non-existent in the first half of this year, largely due to the smaller number and general youth of their fleets as 83% and 70% of their respective trading fleets are at less than 10 years of age. On the other hand, demolitions of Capesizes have been the largest in both deadweight and unit terms this year, counting 1.9 million dwt or 12 units so far.

Fleet growth in 2018 is thus expected to come in at around 2%, although this could increase to around 3% should demolition activity continue to slow down. The current recovery of the dry bulk market from vessel oversupply also continues to be slightly vulnerable, as new orders show some signs of picking up. In the first half of 2018, new orders amounted to 94 units equivalent to 10.9 million dwt, with Supramaxes, Panamaxes, and Capesizes seeing the largest number of orders. This compares to 48 units amounting to 6.4 million dwt over the same period in 2017, and the low of 40 units equivalent to 8.9 million dwt seen in the whole of 2016. The orderbook to fleet ratio thus stands at 11.2% currently in deadweight terms, compared to a bottom of under 10% in 2016.

Dry bulk fleet review

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Dry Bulk Deliveries in DWT - Seasonality(July 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in million DWT)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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1.0

2.0

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Dry Bulk Demolitions in DWT - Seasonality(July 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in million DWT)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

+15%+12%

+6% +5% +3% +2% +3% +2% +2%+1%

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018(f) 2019(f) 2020(f)

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Projected Total Dry Bulk Fleet Growth(all units over 20,000 dwt ; assuming 30% slippage)

Dry Bulk Fleet Size (in mln DWT) Y-o-Y Growth

7.0% 7.2%

12.0%

4.1%

9.0%

39.5%

11.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC Tot Orders

Ord

erb

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Dry Bulk Orderbook as Proportion of Trading Fleet(all units over 20,000 dwt ; in deadweight terms)

Unit 06-Jul 29-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y

BCI TC Avg. usd/day 24,273 18,110 +34.0% +265.2%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 29,350 19,650 +49.4% +418.6%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 22,227 19,036 +16.8% +205.4%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 20,729 14,604 +41.9% +264.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 20,000 19,000 +5.3% +66.7%

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

Another strong week recorded for the Capesize market with a pause approaching the weekend.

The Atlantic seemed to be toppish, but it remains to be seen how many cargoes still have to be covered since some charterer had in-house tonnage behind. The Brazilian market was active, but it eased down towards the end of the week: it seems there are still cargoes to be fixed for July and August from Brazil to China, in any case rates stalled as most seemed to be taking a breather and watching for the developments next week; there were rumours that Vale is still in the market for 1-10 August.

The West Australia/China trade ended with rumours of rates rallying over $9.00/mt for the first time since December 2017.

Capesize Market

Rates

Panamax Market

Rates

Good week in the Atlantic where many vessels have been fixed and where several Cape splits influenced the market positively.

Not only good activity for Inter-Cont cargoes, but also saw more fronthaul trades.

Rates rose throughout the week here: Kamsarmax fixing at close to $20,000/d from the Continent via North Coast South America to the East.

East Coast South America was bit under pressure as some charts could use cheap Ultramax vessels instead of Panamax; however rates maintained a good levels with a Kamsarmax fixed at close to $16,000/d plus $600,000 ballast bonus for end of July dates.

The Pacific rates instead remained lousy with many vessels available and small number of fresh cargoes, especially in South Pacific. Better situation recorded in NoPac where some modern vessels open in Japan got good rates. Period/short period market remained flat due to the strong Cape market and improved paper values.

3

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

BPI TC and Panamax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

market report - week 27/2018


BPI TC Avg. usd/day 10,821 10,738 +0.8% +26.9%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 10,628 11,233 -5.4% n.a.

P1 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 10,222 9,733 +5.0% +20.7%

P2 Skaw-Gib Trip East usd/day 18,235 17,944 +1.6% +26.1%

P3 Pacific r/v usd/day 9,721 10,144 -4.2% +20.2%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 12,500 12,500 +0.0% +38.9%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 14,000 14,000 +0.0% +36.6%

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

Despite the increase of bunker prices the market in USG remained pretty steady. A couple of 57,000 dwt open spot USG were fixed at $13,500/14,000/d whilst for the second half of July we have seen better numbers around $16/16,500/d for Ultramax on the Coal and Petcoke trades from USG to the Med and around $22,000/d for grains to Japan. In ECS Am the market kept decreasing: Supramax, Tess58, were fixed around $14,000/d basis dely APS ECS Am for trips to the Med and Ultramax got around $15,000/d if not less. Trips to F East on Supramax were fixed around $13,500/d + $350,000 bb and Ultramax were asking $14,250/d + $425,000 bb. The Handysize market softened towards the $10,500/11,000/d basis dely aps ECS Am for trips to the Med.

Supramax & Handysize Market

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Another unexciting week in the Black Sea with Supramax still traded below the $10,000/d level for IntraMed trips and Handies that remained in the mid $7/8,000/d for both Cross-Med and Med-Cont. Fronthaul rates struggled to increase and Supramax were fixing in the mid-teens. Nevertheless most of the Owners in USG and Cont are now forecasting a strong Black Sea market in the second half of July, which makes the area a very appealing destination. In Continent rates remained stable, but with a softer feeling both on Handy and Supramax sizes. Handysize for Cont/Baltic runs to E Med were around $10,500/d for clean cargoes and +$1,000/d for scrap, Supramax on the same route around $12,500/d. A 37,000 dwt modern type, but with pretty heavy consumption, was fixed at $10,500/d basis dely ARA range with grains redely WC Mexico. Not much activity on trips to F East both on Handy and Supramax sizes fixing around $14,000/d and 15,500/d respectively basis dely Cont.

The week opened on a positive mood, but rates steadily dropped as the week progressed. Early in the week a 55,000 dwt was fixed around $11,500/d basis dely WC India for a trip via UAE to EC India with limestone, then a Supramax was fixed at $12,000/d basis dely aps UAE for a trip to MEG at mid $12,000/d levels with aggregates. Towards the end of the week more failures were heard: a 56,000 dwt open MEG was failed for trip to China at $12,500/d and another 56,000 dwt open WC India failed at mid/low $11,000/d for a trip via MEG to Chittagong. At the end of the week a 55,000 dwt was fixed at $13,000/d for a trip via MEG to India basis dely aps Fujairah. From S Africa a 57,000 dwt was fixed at low $12,000/d + low 200,000 for a coal trade to MEG/WC India.

Far

East

P

acif

ic

A further slowdown of activity for larger tonnage caused rates to decrease day by day, especially for India direction and Pacific RV whilst Indonesia the Coal trade to China remained at levels similar the previous week. On Handies instead demand improved and a longer list of fixtures was reported at unchanged levels so far. A 55,000 Dolphin-type with dely N China achieved $11,000/d via Indonesia to India with coal, then an Ultramax fixed on the same trade same trade at $ 11,500 with delivery Shanghai. Another Ultramax with dely N China fixed a trip with nickel ore via Philippines to S China at $11,000/d and a Tess58 got $10,750/d from Singapore to carry steels to S Korea. On Handies a 32,000 dwt got $10,000/ basis delivery aps Lumuth with alumina to Bintulu Island, a slightly larger unit achieved $8,000/d basis dely Thailand for a trip via Malaysia to India and a 28,000 dwt with dely Cigading fixed at $9,7507d for a trip inter SE Asia.

US

Atl

anti

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Sou

th A

mer

ica

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0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

0

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9,000

12,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

BHSI TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC



BSI TC Avg. usd/day 10,892 11,288 -3.5% +30.3%

S4A 58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 15,369 15,159 +1.4% +17.9%

S9 58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 9,229 9,393 -1.7% +15.3%

S1B 58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 15,429 15,268 +1.1% +13.2%

S11 58 Pacific r/v usd/day 10,244 10,950 -6.4% +39.7%


BHSI TC Avg. usd/day 8,238 8,476 -2.8% +19.9%


Sup

ram

axH

and

y

Rates

Unit 06-Jul 29-Jun W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Jul (18) usd/day 20,460 18,110 +13.0% -15.7%

Aug (18) usd/day 18,810 18,710 +0.5% -22.5%

Sep (18) usd/day 20,830 21,410 -2.7% -14.2%

Q4 (18) usd/day 23,210 23,510 -1.3% -4.4%

Q1 (19) usd/day 14,290 14,570 -1.9% -41.1%

Q2 (19) usd/day 15,960 16,130 -1.1% -34.2%

Cal 19 usd/day 19,218 19,375 -0.8% -20.8%

Cal 20 usd/day 18,980 19,120 -0.7% -21.8%

Cal 21 usd/day 16,560 16,610 -0.3% -31.8%

Jul (18) usd/day 11,265 11,610 -3.0% +4.1%

Aug (18) usd/day 11,740 12,275 -4.4% +8.5%

Sep (18) usd/day 12,330 13,020 -5.3% +13.9%

Q4 (18) usd/day 12,685 13,285 -4.5% +17.2%

Q1 (19) usd/day 11,280 11,650 -3.2% +4.2%

Q2 (19) usd/day 12,440 12,615 -1.4% +15.0%

Cal 19 usd/day 12,368 12,626 -2.0% +14.3%

Cal 20 usd/day 11,845 11,890 -0.4% +9.5%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,120 10,205 -0.8% -6.5%

Jul (18) usd/day 11,270 11,714 -3.8% +3.5%

Aug (18) usd/day 11,790 12,069 -2.3% +8.2%

Sep (18) usd/day 12,070 12,309 -1.9% +10.8%

Q4 (18) usd/day 12,580 12,784 -1.6% +15.5%

Q1 (19) usd/day 11,150 11,247 -0.9% +2.4%

Q2 (19) usd/day 11,830 11,889 -0.5% +8.6%

Cal 19 usd/day 12,060 12,217 -1.3% +10.7%

Cal 20 usd/day 11,660 11,557 +0.9% +7.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,480 10,363 +1.1% -3.8%

Jul (18) usd/day 8,438 9,050 -6.8% +2.4%

Aug (18) usd/day 9,225 9,438 -2.3% +12.0%

Sep (18) usd/day 9,613 9,775 -1.7% +16.7%

Q4 (18) usd/day 9,850 9,900 -0.5% +19.6%

Q1 (19) usd/day 8,950 9,013 -0.7% +8.6%

Q2 (19) usd/day 9,475 9,538 -0.7% +15.0%

Cal 19 usd/day 9,463 9,481 -0.2% +14.9%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,238 9,238 +0.0% +12.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,188 9,188 +0.0% +11.5%

Han

dys

ize

Cap

esi

zeP

anam

axSu

pra

max

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12,000

Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

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8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

banchero costa dry cargo chartering

Dry Bulk FFAs (Baltic Forward Assessments)

5

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)



TD1 MEG-USG ws 19.86 20.59 -3.5% -20.4%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day -15,270 -14,847 -2.8% -221.3%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 51.17 52.33 -2.2% -3.1%

TD3C MEG-China ws 50.75 51.88 -2.2% -1.9%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 11,768 12,387 -5.0% -18.8%

TD15 WAF-China ws 51.21 50.98 +0.5% -7.6%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day -1,751 -1,230 -42.4% -125.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 20,000 20,000 +0.0% -24.5%

TD6 BSea-Med ws 85.64 85.42 +0.3% +15.0%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 9,264 9,508 -2.6% +37.3%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 73.64 67.84 +8.5% +14.0%

MEG-EAST ws 72.00 77.00 -6.5% +7.5%

MEG-WEST ws 34.00 35.00 -2.9% +25.9%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 8,780 7,800 +12.6% +21.7%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 15,500 15,500 +0.0% -16.2%

TD7 NSea-Cont ws 112.78 103.94 +8.5% +18.7%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 8,679 4,217 +105.8% +133.6%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 85.00 80.28 +5.9% +30.8%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 9,494 7,221 +31.5% +205.2%

TD19 Med-Med ws 94.00 79.83 +17.8% +27.2%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 2,714 -2,149 +226% +475.4%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 100.33 100.00 +0.3% +9.4%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 3,231 2,857 +13.1% -22.7%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 111.39 121.88 -8.6% +25.7%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 4,818 8,247 -41.6% +265.0%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 5,945 4,490 +32.4% +88.0%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,250 14,500 -1.7% -5.0%

VLC

CSu

ezm

axA

fram

ax

tanker chartering banchero costa

VLCCs recorded a busy week in the MEG and, during the second half of it, rates started moving in owners' preferred direction, settling in the low ws50s for East and around ws20 going West. West Africa market moved in tandem with the MEG and, by Friday, rates for voyages going to Far East reached lows ws50s. Limited activity in the Caribs, pushing rates for Singapore discharge down to around USD 3.4 mln. Demand for Suezmaxes remained at pretty good levels during the entire week in West Africa and owners finally managed to get few more ws points, pushing rates for UKC discharge up to almost ws75. Despite the good level of activity, rates in the Mediterranean didn't move much from what we've seen last week and remained in the mid ws80s for the Black Sea/Med voyages. Activity for Aframaxes finally picked up in the Mediterranean, and once the position list got thinner, rates quickly moved up to the mid ws90s for the Cross-Med. Positive week for owners in the North Sea as well, good amount of fresh cargoes in the market pushed rated up to mid ws80s from the Baltic and around ws115 for the Cross-Continent. A short working week in the U.S. didn't help the Caribbean market, little going on and the Caribs/USG softening down to about ws105.

Crude Oil Tanker Market

6

Rates


0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000


1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

tanker chartering banchero costa

Product Tanker Market

Delays at Turkish Straits for Daylight Restricted Vessels

The East of Suez market saw a bit of action only at the end of the week. LR2 were able to finally obtain ws100 for a MEG/ Japan voyage basis 75,000 (equal to about $6,000/d TCE), and USD 1.9 mln for MEG/UKC voyages. LR1 segment did not see any changes, and maintained ws120 (equal to about $7,000/d TCE) for eastward voyages basis 55,000 tons. Over all a flat week also in the West of Suez, where LR1 and LR2 were still fixing respectively at USD 1.3 mln and USD 1.75 mln for a UKC/Japan voyage.

The clean Handy market showed another quiet week in the Med with rates for 30,000 MT remaining around ws130 for the Cross-Med and ws140 for the B Sea-Med. As for the Med, clean Handies in the Cont kept same levels reported last week, namely ws130 for the Baltic/UKC and ws120 for the Cross-UKC. Rates for Clean MRs fixed on the Cont/ARA range to TA increased up to ws110 on 37,000 MT before closing the week down to ws105/107.5 level. USG/TA voyages reached ws90 level basis 38,000 MT, confirming the positive trend of the latest weeks.

The dirty market during last week remained particularly quiet both for Handies and MRs. Just a few cargoes have been fixed from the B Sea with Handies reaching ws140 level basis 30,000 MT, while rates for the Cross-Med remained stable at ws130.

The MRs market showed just a couple of fixtures with nothing of exciting. The Cross-Med for 45,000 MT remained at ws110 and, from the B Sea, at ws115. Also the UKC market didn’t show anything of extraordinary, with 30,000 MT on the Cross-UKC remaining at ws150. No changes reported for Panamaxes, still around ws100/102.5 levels for 55,000 MT from the Med/UKC range to the TA routes.



TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 101.6 96.9 +4.8% +7.3%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 6,912 5,506 +25.5% -2.6%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 25.8 25.2 +2.3% +42.6%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 120.3 119.2 +0.9% +0.9%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 7,655 7,289 +5.0% -8.2%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 105.8 104.2 +1.6% -17.0%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 829 765 +8.4% -86.5%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 89.7 85.0 +5.5% -21.6%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day -1,121 -1,656 +32.3% -124.9%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 130.0 130.0 +0.0% -18.8%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 130.0 130.0 +0.0% -5.7%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 174.5 173.4 +0.6% -19.2%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 9,658 9,365 +3.1% -12.4%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/mt 8.77 7.89 +11.2% +0.2%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 7,086 4,738 +49.6% -24.8%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 4,862 4,281 +13.6% -56.8%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,250 14,500 -1.7% -5.0%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,500 14,500 +0.0% +7.4%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 99.7 100.0 -0.3% -9.9%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 4 0 K) ws 152.1 156.7 -2.9% +12.3%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 140.0 140.0 +0.0% +16.7%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 130.0 135.0 -3.7% +18.2%

Cle

anD

irty

Rates


Northbound days 1.5 1.5 +0.0% +0.0%

Southbound days 1.5 1.0 +50.0% +50.0%

600

700

800

900

1,000

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Shanghai Container Freight Index

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

5/7/17 5/11/17 5/3/18 5/7/18

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

5/7/17 5/11/17 5/3/18 5/7/18

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700


ConTex index 534 535 -0.2% +39.4%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 13,139 13,226 -0.7% +74.9%

3500 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 12,578 12,551 +0.2% +47.3%

2700 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 12,246 12,289 -0.3% +33.8%

2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 12,139 12,200 -0.5% +40.7%

1700 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 11,028 11,113 -0.8% +57.9%

1100 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 8,543 8,509 +0.4% +42.4%

COSCO Shipping Holdings has gained approval from China’s Ministry of Commerce for the takeover of its smaller Hong Kong-based rival Orient Overseas (International) Ltd, with all preconditions now met to proceed with the deal. Trade wars threaten to derail container shipping revival. The risk to container shipping from US-led trade wars is currently low, but potentially very damaging, according to the latest edition of the Container Forecaster published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. In the worst-case scenario, Drewry calculates that as much as 1.8 million TEUs, or nearly 1 percent of world loaded traffic, could be lost to the market.

banchero costa containers

VHSS Containership Timecharter Assessment (source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

Containership Market

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

8


Comprehensive Index index 817 821 -0.5% -8.1%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 881 885 -0.5% -9.1%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 903 913 -1.1% -0.3%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,555 1,545 +0.6% +16.7%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 2,623 2,524 +3.9% +13.7%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 470 482 -2.5% -44.4%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,737 1,988 -12.6% -54.2%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 152 143 +6.3% -16.0%


Recent Fixtures

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Vermont Trader 2004 4,992 3,280 no fixed to OOCL 4-6 m $14,000/d

Wehr Schulau 1999 1,730 1,124 yes fixed to UAFL 10-12 m $11,100/d

A La Marine 2009 1,440 1,070 no extended to CMA CGM 10-12 m $12,000/d

Otana Bhum 2008 1,019 700 yes fixed to ASL 3-5 m $8,500/d

O.M. Humorum 2008 704 415 no fixed to Macrocean 4-6 weeks $5,500/d

100

105

110

115

120

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Yen/USD Exchange

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

USD/Euro Exchange

20

30

40

50


Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 2.86 2.88 2.88 2.91 2.93 2.93

Euro -0.01 0.26 0.53 0.86 1.22 1.38

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 2.51 -0.31 -0.27

12 Months 2.77 -0.24 -0.18

banchero costa

Activity in the Newbuilding market remained extremely strong in all segments. If the trend will keep on going as in these days, the yards during summer will be pretty busy in contracting vessels.

Chinese leasing companies are still covering their positions in ordering tonnage; BoCom FL declared their option for 1 x 158,000 dwt Suezmax tanker at an undisclosed price for dely in 2019 at Hyundai Samho, Korea. CSSC Leasing ordered 4 + 2 Bulker 120,000 dwt at Huangpu Wenchong for dely 2020 at undisclosed level backed by long contract to Cargill.

Singaporean Eastern Pacific declared their option for 1 Aframax Tanker 115,000 dwt at Hanjin Subic Philippines at USD 43 mln for dely 2019.

Marinakis controlled Capital is at LOI stage with Hyundai for 4+3+3 x 175,000 cbm LNG Gas Carrier at a price of USD 182 mln + extras (LNG propulsion) per vessel for dely between 2020 and 2021. Wisdom Marine Lines Taiwan declared their option for 1 x 82,000 dwt Kamsarmax BC at JMU Japan for dely 2020 at USD 34 mln, Tier III.

Newbuilding Market

Newbuilding Reported Orders

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (China)

sale & purchase

Interest Rates

Interest Rate Swaps

9

Unit 01-Jul-18 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 47.1 +0.6% +11.3%

Ultramax usd mln 25.8 +0.3% +13.6%

Supramax usd mln 22.8 +0.4% +14.6%

VLCC usd mln 82.0 +1.1% +8.2%

LR2 Coated usd mln 45.3 +0.8% +10.5%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.6 +0.4% +5.3%

06-Jul 29-Jun W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.17 1.17 +0.2% +3.0%

Yen/USD 110.5 110.8 -0.3% -2.4%

SK Won/USD 1,116 1,115 +0.1% -3.6%

Exchange Rates


Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Cont 1,800 2020 Hyundai Mipo Nissen Kaiun n.a. 4 units

Cont 12,000 2020/21 Yangzijiang Costamare 85.0 5 units + 5 opt

Gas 175,000 2021 Hyundai Capital 184.0 4 units + 6 opt (LOI)

TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk NSS Fortune 184,800 2003 Mitsui Greek buyers 14.8

Bulk FD Vittorio Raiola 76,600 2010 Shin Kasado C. Of Soloi, Greece 18.0

Bulk Serendipity 54,000 2008 Taizhou Chinese buyers 9.05

Bulk Fortune Unity 53,400 2006 Iwagi Greek buyers 10.65

Bulk Kaity L 50,500 2003 Shanghai Jiangnan Chinese buyers 8.50 SS/DD freshly

passed

Bulk Green Cape 35,000 2003 Jiangdu Yahai Undisclosed 5.8

Bulk Oriente Shine 31,800 2001 Hakodate Chinese buyers 7.2

Crude Mabrouk 159,000 2003 Hyundai C. Of Waruna 14.0

Prod Iver Experience 45,600 2000 Samho C. Of Seven Islands Shipping 7.0

LPG Fountain River 79,500 1997 Kawasaki C. Of Naftomar 16.0

300

350

400

450

500

9/7/17 9/11/17 9/3/18 9/7/18

SubCon Demo Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dirty Tnk Clean Tnk Dry Bulk

15

20

25

30

35

9/7/17 9/11/17 9/3/18 9/7/18

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Panamax Aframax MR

Unit 09-Jul 02-Jul W-o-W Y-o-Y

Dry Bulk usd/ldt 433.0 434.0 -0.2% +26.4%

Dirty Tanker usd/ldt 440.0 441.0 -0.2% +22.7%

Clean Tanker usd/ldt 441.0 442.5 -0.3% +24.1%

sale & purchase banchero costa

Secondhand Market

Baltic Secondhand Assessments

Baltic Demolition Assessment (Subcontinent)

10

Unit 09-Jul 02-Jul W-o-W Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 35.3 35.2 +0.4% +11.3%

Panamax usd mln 21.9 21.9 -0.2% +13.3%

Supramax usd mln 18.4 18.4 -0.1% +14.4%

VLCC usd mln 61.7 61.6 +0.1% -0.5%

Aframax usd mln 29.8 29.8 -0.0% +0.5%

MR Product usd mln 25.9 25.9 -0.2% +7.6%


During last week on the second hand bulker market the “NSS Fortune” 185,000 dwt 2003 Mitsui built was reported sold at high USD 14 mln with dry dock due on December 2018. On the smaller size the Panamax “FD Vittorio Raiola” 76,000 dwt 2010 Shin Kasado built was sold to Greek buyers at USD 18 mln while the 2 “GH Secretariat” 56,000 dwt and “GH Phrar Lap” 57,000 dwt both dwt 2012 Cosco built were reported sold to clients of Eships for USD 13 mln each.

Other Supramax vessels to be reported sold are the “Serendipity” 54,000 dwt 2008 Taizhou sold at usd 9.5 mln to Chinese buyers and the Japanese built 53,000 dwt 2006 Iwagi, “MV Fortune Unity”, sold to Greeks at usd 10.65 mln.

In the Handysize sector “MV Orient Shine” 2001 Hakodate was reported sold to Chinese buyers at usd 7.2 mln while the 2 bulkers 29,000 dwt Oshima built , “Genco Progress” and “Genco Explorer”, have been sold for an enbloc deal at usd 5.6 mln.

On the tanker side Delta tankers was reported to be the buyer of the last 6 tankers of the TOISA fleet (“United Oceans” 157,000 dwt 2018, “United Paragon” 157,000 dwt 2018, “Pericles GC” 157,000 dwt 2019, “United Mariner” 115,000 dwt 2018, “United Nomad” 115,000 dwt 2018, “Nikos Kazantzakis” 115,000 dwt 2018) at undisclosed price.

The “Suezmax Mabrouk” 159,000 dwt 2003 Hyundai was reported sold at USD 14 mln to Waruna while the 45,000 dwt 2000 built Iver Experience was reported sold at Seven Island for usd 7 mln.

Secondhand Reported Sales

news banchero costa

China to cut coal use, curb steel in 2018-2020 pollution plan China will cut coal consumption, boost electric vehicle sales and shut more outdated steel and coke capacity in the coming three years, the State Council said in a long-awaited 2018 to 2020 pollution action plan published on Tuesday. China is in the fifth year of a "war on pollution" aimed at reversing the damage done to the country's environment since the economy was opened up in 1978, with President Xi Jinping promising to use the full might of the Chinese Communist Party to meet the country's goals. China's Hebei vows more heavy industry capacity cuts by 2020 The smog-prone northern Chinese province of Hebei said it plans to slash steel capacity by 50 percent in some of its major cities by 2020, and will also shut coal mines, coking plants and cement factories to upgrade its industrial economy. Hebei, a major source of the air pollution drifting over neighbouring Beijing, produces about a quarter of the country's total steel output, and it has been on the front line in China's 'war on pollution'. Australia sees iron ore prices sliding more than a 5th by 2020 Top iron ore exporter Australia sees prices for the steelmaking raw ingredient falling by more than a fifth over the next two years as demand from China's steel mills slips while domestic and Brazilian output climbs, a government report said. In its quarterly Resources and Energy report, Australia's Department of Industry said iron ore prices on a free on board (FOB) Australia basis are expected to slip to an average of $51 per tonne in 2020, a drop of more than 21 percent from Monday's levels of $65 a tonne. Vessel carrying U.S. coal to China switches destination to Singapore -Eikon data A vessel carrying a shipment of coal from the United States switched its destination to Singapore on Wednesday afternoon from China, according to ship tracking data, amid an escalating trade row between the world's top two economies. The cargo was loaded on the Navios Taurus in Mobile, Alabama, on May 28 and had been due to arrive in China on July 18, but is now due to land in Singapore on July 13, Thomson Reuters Eikon data shows. US-China met coal trade freeze seen absorbed by Korea, Asia buyers China may reduce imports of coking coal from the US for a period of time on the risk of tariffs being imposed, but ultimately trade will return given Chinese demand for a range of coal qualities, US trading sources said. Long-term demand in China for coking coals with low ash, and prices high enough to attract US coal imports and freight costs may continue to create an incentive for seaborne trade, including buyers in South Korea, Indonesia and Japan. US coal to China is price sensitive, with many months of limited or zero Chinese buying of US met coal in recent years. Indonesia's Arutmin has not declared force majeure: Bumi Resources executive Major coal miner Arutmin has not declared force majeure despite the adverse weather conditions at Indonesia's South Kalimantan province, an executive at Bumi Resources said Thursday. Unseasonal rains have been impacting several coal producers in South Kalimantan province, with at least one major miner reported to have declared force majeure due to flooding of the mines. Brazil may import soybeans due to U.S.-China trade spat -export group Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, may have to import the oilseed from the United States this year to satisfy demand from local processors, an executive of exporters association Anec said on Thursday. If China's demand for Brazilian soy rises due to a trade war with the United States, local processors may have to resort to importing 500,000 to 1 million tonnes from the United States, Luis Barbieri told an event in Sao Paulo. China has announced 25 percent tariffs on a range of U.S. products scheduled to take effect from July 6. Rain blamed for shock French wheat crop downgrade Heavy rain in winter and late spring may have caused more damage to French wheat crops than expected, analyst firm Strategie Grains said, after a huge cut to its forecast for France's harvest fuelled a rally in international prices. The firm stunned grain markets when it cut its French soft wheat production estimate by more than 4 million tonnes to 33.2 million in an update to clients. China's Chalco to cut alumina output by 770,000 T as prices fall Aluminum Corp of China known as Chalco, is to cut alumina output on some of its production lines in the northern Chinese province of Shanxi because of high bauxite prices and low alumina prices. In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange, the state-run Chinese aluminium producer said that about 770,000 tonnes of annual alumina production capacity at its Shanxi New Material unit would be affected by "flexible" output arrangements, a euphemism for production cuts, with effect from Thursday. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

Dry Bulk Commodities


news banchero costa

Oil & Gas

U.S.-Iran tensions rise over oil route as EU tries to save nuclear deal The U.S. Navy stands ready to ensure free navigation and the flow of commerce, the U.S. military's Central Command said on Thursday, as Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned they would block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. With tensions rising over the strategic waterway, the European Union is proposing a plan for salvaging a multinational nuclear deal with Tehran after Washington withdrew, but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told leaders in Paris and Berlin on Thursday that the package did not go far enough. Asia's oil refiners rush to deal with U.S.-China trade war, looming Iran sanctions Asian oil refiners are racing to secure crude supplies in anticipation of an escalating trade war between the United States and China, and as Washington plans tough sanctions against Iran aimed at shutting the country out of oil markets. As part of a wave of retaliation for Friday's U.S. tariffs, China has threatened a 25 percent duty on imports of U.S. crude. Meanwhile, Washington's new sanctions against Tehran are due to kick in from November. S.Korea suspends Iranian oil loading in July for first time since 2012 - sources South Korea will not lift any Iranian crude and condensate in July, halting all shipments for the first time in six years amid U.S. pressure to cut all imports of Iranian oil from November, three sources familiar with the matter said on Friday. South Korea has imported four times more CPC Blend crude so far in 2018 than in the same period last year, as the major Asian oil consumer seeks to replace Iranian supplies, shipments data and trading sources said. Japanese customers, however, are continuing to import for now, with multiple buyers considering buying Iranian oil through September loading, said a North Asia trading source familiar with Iranian oil shipping arrangements. Libya's NOC declares force majeure at Zueitina and Hariga oil export ports Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure on loadings from Zueitina and Hariga ports on 2 July, resulting in total production losses of 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the closure of eastern fields and ports. The Tripoli-based NOC made the announcement after eastern factions seeking control of Libya's oil exports began to block tankers at the two ports last week. Saudi Arabia raised oil output by around 500,000 bpd in June- sources Saudi Arabia has told OPEC it pumped 10.488 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil last month, an increase of 458,000 bpd from the level it said it produced in May, OPEC sources told Reuters on Thursday. Saudi Arabia's total supplies to the market in June were even higher than well-head production, the sources said, suggesting the Kingdom sold crude from storage. Russian oil output up by 100,000 bpd in June as production curbs eased Russian average monthly oil output exceeded 11 million barrels per day (bpd) in June for the first time since April 2017 as leading global oil producers started to ease output curbs, Energy Ministry data showed. Production rose to 11.06 million bpd in June from 10.97 million bpd in May, up around 100,000 bpd. In tonnes, Russian oil output was 45.276 million versus 46.377 million in May. Venezuela's declining crude exports squeeze India's refiners Venezuela's crude shipments to India, its third largest export market, fell 21 percent in the first half of the year, according to internal documents from state-run PDVSA, adding to supply troubles for Indian refiners as they are increasingly pressed to diversify oil imports. Venezuela's production decline to a 30-year low and export woes stemming from mismanagement, lack of investment and payment delays are affecting almost all of the OPEC-nation's customers. U.S. crude stockpiles rise unexpectedly, gasoline draws down - EIA U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week ,as imports grew and refineries cut output while gasoline inventories decreased nearly double forecasts, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. Crude inventories rose 1.2 million barrels in the week to June 29, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 3.5 million barrels. Ghost ships no more: Explorers resume oil, gas search as prices perk up A growing fleet of ships is scanning oceans in search of new oil and gas fields as energy companies, now with more cash thanks to stronger crude prices, gradually resume spending on seismic services after a four-year downturn. A doubling in the area contracted for seismic work in the first quarter this year from the last three months of 2017 has injected optimism into surveillance firms, with a global fleet of about 24 vessels, most of whom struggled to survive in the past years. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

market report - week 27/2018 12

300

400

500

600

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

29/6/17 29/10/17 28/2/18

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

50

70

90

110

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

6/7/17 6/11/17 6/3/18 6/7/18

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO


Wheat usd/t 512.8 502.0 +2.1% -3.7%

Corn usd/t 347.5 350.5 -0.9% -11.3%

Soybeans usd/t 867.5 861.3 +0.7% -13.1%

Palm Oil usd/t 561.2 576.0 -2.6% -5.5%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 63.0 64.7 -2.7% -2.1%

Iron Ore China @Tangshan rmb/t 473.0 472.0 +0.2% -7.3%

Rebar in China rmb/t n.a. 4,054 n.a. n.a.

Plate in China rmb/t n.a. 4,230 n.a. n.a.

HR Coil in China rmb/t n.a. 4,382 n.a. n.a.

CR Sheet in China rmb/t n.a. 4,695 n.a. n.a.


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 107.6 104.9 +2.5% +26.5%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 116.1 113.9 +1.9% +40.6%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 188.5 185.8 +1.5% +18.9%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 77.4 78.5 -1.4% +65.5%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 73.8 73.4 +0.6% +66.4%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 74.3 75.2 -1.3% +61.5%

Natural Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 2.85 2.91 -2.1% -0.3%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 2.12 2.13 -0.5% +41.3%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 668.3 671.3 -0.4% +55.3%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 659.9 667.6 -1.2% +61.2%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 88.8 89.9 -1.2% +53.7%


Rotterdam usd/t 442.5 439.5 +0.7% +53.6%

Gibraltar usd/t 464.0 469.0 -1.1% +51.1%

Singapore usd/t 470.5 470.5 +0.0% +54.8%

Rotterdam usd/t 470.0 474.5 -0.9% +42.6%

Gibraltar usd/t 489.5 495.0 -1.1% +54.2%

Singapore usd/t 493.5 501.0 -1.5% +46.0%

Rotterdam usd/t 644.5 627.5 +2.7% +49.5%

Gibraltar usd/t 693.0 703.0 -1.4% +45.7%

Singapore usd/t 672.0 668.5 +0.5% +50.3%

IFO

38

0IF

O 1

80

MG

O

banchero costa commodities

Oil & Gas Prices

Coal Prices

Iron Ore and Steel Prices

Agricultural

Bunker Prices


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BANCOSTA Weekly Market Reportnumber of orders. This compares to 48 units amounting to 6.4 million...

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Transcript of BANCOSTA Weekly Market Reportnumber of orders. This compares to 48 units amounting to 6.4 million...