Baltics Growth reporter q2 2010

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Transcript of Baltics Growth reporter q2 2010

  • Q22010

    10/08/2010

  • Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright 2010 The Nielsen Company

    Introduction

    Compares overall market dynamics (value and unit growth) in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods sector across Europe.

    Is based on the sales tracking Nielsen performs in every European market.

    Covers sales in grocery, hypermarket, supermarket, discount and convenience channels

    Is based on the widest possible basket of product categories that are continuously tracked by Nielsen in each of these countries and channels

    Reports on the 2nd quarter of 2010

    Week 15, 2010 till week 27, 2010

    NB: Turkey data was reworked for Q1 2010

    Cigarettes were removed from calculation because of distorting effect

    This report:

  • Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright 2010 The Nielsen Company

    Executive Summary A poor Q2 in terms of volume growth rates, confirms the very slow

    healing of consumer confidence

    In 2009 the Easter weekend was part of Q2, this year Easter was part of Q1 sales

    The shift in sales of this top weekend penalized the Q2 growth rates

    Beyond this calendar technicality its the first time European value growth falls short of +1% since debut of the Growth Reporter in 2007

    Steep drop in Norway despite highest Consumer Confidence in Europe

    Germany and Italy are holding down the European number

    Greek / Euro crisis becomes visible in FMCG Spending

    Inflation is still under the 1% level

    Deflation exceeds -6% in Finland and close to -3% in Ireland, Portugal and Switzerland

    Price increase surge back to +2.7% in the UK and +3% in Turkey

    Volume growth rates were lower than Q1 in 15 of the 21 markets

    Hungary, the Czech rep and Switzerland are the exceptions

    Consumer remains doubtful on recovery

    Consumer confidence rebuilding is slow

    The East

    West divide remains in place.

    Rampant inflation in Albania, Bosnia and Ukraine

    Falling volumes in Bulgaria, Baltics, Romania and Russia

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    Europe overview (*)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

    (*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

  • Confidential & ProprietaryCopyright 2010 The Nielsen Company

    Latest volume trend overview

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    Q2 2010 growth rates per country (versus Q2 2009)

  • Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

    Nielsen Economic Current

    Germany France UK Italy Spain

    Nielsen Market Index Volume*

    Nielsen Market Index Value**

    Are consumers shopping more frequently?

    Are consumers spending more per trip?

    Are shoppers shifting to value channels?

    Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence index

    *Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO **Nielsen Market Index Value defined as , change vs. YAGO

    Europe Big 5 summary

    Very Strong Growth: >= +5%

    Growth: between +1 and + 4%

    Neutral: between -1 and +1%

    Negative: between -1 and -4%

    Very Negative: < -4%

    6363 7878 7171 69698181 77 55 22 44 1010

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    DETAILS BY COUNTRY

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    Austria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Belgium Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Czech Republic Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Denmark Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Finland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    France Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Germany Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Greece Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Hungary Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Ireland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Italy Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    NetherlandsFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Norway Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Poland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Portugal Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Slovakia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Spain Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Sweden Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Switzerland Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Turkey Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

    Cigarettes sales excluded onwards 2010.

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    UK Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Extended countries

    Based on Bimonthly reporting cycles

    Categories covered in food and drug channels

    Albania Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Israel Latvia

    Lithuania Macedonia Romenia Russia Serbia Slovenia Ukraine

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    Albania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Bosnia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Bulgaria Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Croatia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Estonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Israel Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Latvia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Lithuania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Macedonia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Romania Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    RussiaFast Moving Consumer Goods Market Dynamics

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    Serbia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Slovenia Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Ukraine Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics

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    Glossary

    Nominal value growth:

    Percentage change in value sales (expenditures) as measured by the total basket of reported product categories

    Unit value growth (

    price

    change):

    Percentage change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket of reported product categories

    The unit of volume in the basket varies by category (e.g. litres, kilograms, tonnes, etc)

    The change in average price per unit may result from:

    Price changes of individual products

    Change in the mix of purchased products; more or less expensive products, more or less promotions, etc.

    Channel switching; more or less purchases in discount stores, or hypermarkets, or convenience outlets, etc.

    Product or channel mix changes may be induced by price change or may just be the result of market dynamics.

    The unit value growth reflects how consumers experience cost of living in their actual grocery shopping behaviour.

    Volume growth:

    Percentage change in purchased volume (quantity) of products

    The three compo