BALLARAT REGIONAL CENTRE OVERVIEW · Ballarat is currently the 17th most populated area in the...

BALLARATREGIONAL CENTREOVERVIEW

BALLARAT

2017EDITION 1

2

OVERVIEWBALLARAT REGIONAL CENTRE

E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7BALLARAT AT A GLANCE

Ballarat is currently the 17th most populated area in the nation, with the latest

figures showing a population base of 106,296. This area holds 0.44% of the

Australian population and on average has grown by approximately 1590 people

per annum since 2002.

Ballarat has experienced historic compounding growth rates of 6.34% since 1985

& over the past 10 years the market has run at a growth rate of 3.76%.

Over 2015/2016 the dominant sector was Rental, Hiring & Real Estate which

contributed 15.46% to GRP. This was followed by Manufacturing (11.95%) and

Health Care & Social Assistance at (11.06%). For lower risk, an ideal economic

breakdown would see no industry with over a 10% share in a region, however with

Ballarat being so close to Melbourne we see this risk minimized.

Over 2017 there is approximately over $9000 per person committed to public

infrastructure spending. $9000 per person of spending in the pipeline is considered

above average based on the national average of $3000 per person.

MAJOR GOVERNMENTPROJECTS APPROVED

MAJOR PRIVATELY FUNDED PROJECTS APPROVED

Ballarat Train Line Upgrade / New Govt. Hub CBD Transformation / Ballarat

Tech School / Ballarat Secondary College Upgrades

Ballarat Station Precinct Redevelopment / Central Victoria Livestock

Exchange / Delacombe Town Centre

BALLARAT AS WE SEE IT

We believe this market is showing Value.

Given the rate of long term growth and economic diversification we believe

it is best suited to a Short to Medium Term Trading Strategy.

We classify Ballarat as a Medium to High Risk investment based on the

size of the population, population growth, stage of the cycle and economic

factors.

3


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

NATIONAL PROPERTY CLOCK

HIGHEST VALUESUBURBS

EDITION 3 - 2017

BALLARAT

LOWER VALUESUBURBS

PEAK OFMARKET

DECLININGMARKET

RISINGMARKET

MELBOURNE

BOTTOMOF MARKET

For more information on the Ballarat market, including the highest value suburbs to invest in, call to

speak to one of our professional property advisors on 03 8539 0300.

OUR VIEW OF THE BALLARATPROPERTY MARKET

4


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYKey Indicator 1

THE ECONOMY Gross Regional Product

Council Budget

Industry Diversity

Key Indicator 2

AFFORDABILITY Gross Affordability Index V. Price Growth

Median Price V. Income

Median Price V. Rent

Key Indicator 3

DEMAND FACTORS Population

Population Pyramid

Unemployment Rate

Job Creation

Infrastructure Spending

Dwelling Sales

Positive

Positive

Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive

Slightly Positive Positive

Slightly Positive

Neutral

Neutral

Positive

Positive Slightly Positive

Positive

Positive

Neutral

Slightly Negative

Slightly Negative

Key Indicator 4

SUPPLY FACTORS Vacancy Rate V. Median Rent

Dwelling Approvals V. Population

Key Indicator 5

INVESTMENT VALUE Long Term Performance

Yield

Ballarat V. Melbourne Price Comparison

Price Comparison

5


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7SNAPSHOT

6.34%

5.3%THE BALLARAT MARKET PREVIOUSLY PEAKED IN 2012 AND THERE HAS BEEN ONLY 3.76% GROWTH PA OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS.

Compare this to long term growth of 6.34% and add in the fundamental indicators that are currently present and we predict short to medium term growth in this market.

YIELDS IN BALLARAT HAVE BEEN STAGNANT SINCE 2004 AND CURRENTLY SIT AT 5.3% FOR HOUSES. VACANCY RATES ARE AT 2.3%.

Ballarat saw supply peaking in 2015 and now running lower than population growth demonstrating a market that is balanced as we progress through 2017.

THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS DROPPED TO

BALLARAT’S POPULATION HAS INCREASED ON AVERAGE 1.98% PA

OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS TO 2016. FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT

THE POPULATION WILL RISE TO 145,000 PEOPLE BY 2036.

THERE AREAPPROXIMATELY

PROPERTIES CURRENTLY ON THE MARKET IN THE GREATER REGION OF BALLARAT.

and has been on a downward trend since 2010. Ballarat’s unemployment rate is sitting below the national and Melbourne rate.

Median rent for houses in Ballarat is $300 and consistently trending upwards since 1999.

BALLARAT

2017

4.5%

0

0 250K200K150K100K50K

1K

1,411

2K 3K 4K 5K

1,411


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

S L I G H T LYP O S I T I V E

6

GROSSREGIONAL PRODUCT V. MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

$350 000 $8 000 000 000

$300 000

$6 000 000 000

$7 000 000 000

$250 000

$5 000 000 000

$200 000

$4 000 000 000

$150 000

$3 000 000 000

$100 000

$2 000 000 000

$50 000

GRP Median House Price

$1 000 000 000

$- $-

$207 500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$215 045

$227 000$232 000

$255 000

$266 000

$287 250$279 975 $284 000

$290 000

$300 000

$310 000


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

7

COUNCIL NET POSITION -CITY OF BALLARAT

$10 000 000

$20 000 000

$30 000 000

$40 000 000

$50 000 000

$60 000 000

$-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

S L I G H T LYN E G A T I V E

8

Industry Value Added as % of GRP 2015/16 Industry Value Added as % GRP 2010/11

INDUSTRY DIVERSITY

Manufacturing,11.95%

Manufacturing,29%

Rental, Hiring &Real EstateServices, 9%

Health Care & Social Assistance, 7%

Professional, Scientific & Technical

Services, 5%

Construction, 9%

Retail Trade,5%

Education & Training, 5%

Public Administration

& Safety, 4%

Financial & Insurance

Services, 4%

Information Media & Telecommunications,

4%

Transport, Postal & Warehousing, 3%

Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services, 3%

Wholesale Trade, 3%

Accommodation & Food Services, 3%

Administrative & Support Services, 2%

Other Services, 2%

Mining, 1%

Arts & Recreation Services, 1%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, 1%

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services, 3.56%

Construction, 5.67%

Wholesale Trade, 3.41%

Retail Trade, 7%

Accommodation and Food Services, 3.01%

Transport, Postal and Warehousing, 3.36%

Information Media and Telecommunications, 3.69%Financial and

Insurance Services, 5.96%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate

Services, 15.46%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services,

5.74%

Administrative and Support

Services, 2.28%

Public Administration

and Safety, 5.3%

Education and Training, 7.85%

Health Care andSocial Assistance,

11.06%

Arts and RecreationServices, 0.86%

Other Services,2.01%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, 0.96%

Mining, 0.88%


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

9

GROSS AFFORDABILITY V. MEDIAN PRICE

35%

30% $300 000

$350 000

25% $250 000

20% $200 000

15% $150 000

10% $100 000

5%

Median House Price Ballarat Affordibility Index VIC Indiv Income

$50 000

0% $-

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

30%

23%

20%

17%18%

20%

15%

12% 12%

13%

16%

13%

15%

17%

20%

22% 22%

24%

28%

16%

23%23%

22%

17% 17%

16%

17%16%


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

N E U T R A L

10

MEDIAN INCOME V.MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE

$350 000

$300 000 $1 400

$1 600

$250 000 $1 200

$200 000 $1 000

$150 000 $800

$100 000 $400

$50 000

Median House Price Ballarat Income (VIC)

$200

$- $-

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

$417$450

$747

$483

$779

$517$551

$803

$592

$857

$933

$626

$991

$640

$1 037

$1 080

$1 125

$1 189

$1 266

$1 321

$1 374

$1 326

$1 380

$1 425$1 455

$1 500

$666$694

$721


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

N E U T R A L

11

MEDIAN RENT V. MEDIAN PRICE

$350

$300 $300 000

$350 000

$250 $250 000

$200 $200 000

$150 $150 000

$100 $100 000

$50

Median Price HOUSE Median Price UNIT Median Rent HOUSE (3bed) Median Rent UNIT (2bed)

$50 000

$- $-1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$142

$127$129

$135$141

$147$151

$155$160

$166$175

$183

$200

$217$222 $225 $229 $229

$233

$250

$150

$160

$171$178 $182

$190$199

$202

$223

$233

$248

$265$270 $272 $275 $278

$285

$300


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

12

POPULATION % CHANGE

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

Change in Population BALLARAT +2% Change in Population NATIONAL +1.5%

0%2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1.13% 1.13%

1.01%

1.23%

0.69%

1.10% 1.05%

1.32%

3.33%

1.56% 1.46%

1.88%1.94%

1.19%2.01%

1.82%

2.17%

1.40%

1.97%

1.57%

1.85%

1.78%1.73%

1.59%

1.71%

1.40%

1.65%

1.06%

2.00%

1.51%


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7


13

POPULATION PYRAMID, 2016

City of Ballarat Regional VIC

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2016 (Usual residence data)Compiled and presented in profile.id by .id, the population experts.

Males

2.0 2.01.5 1.51.0 1.00.5 0.50 0

Females

Age in years

95 - 99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

% of males % of females


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

14

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

Ballarat Unemployment National Unemployment

0%1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7.10%

11.51%

9.90%

6.80%

9.39%

6.20%

9.93%

6.90%

11.50%

6.10%

9.74%

5.50%

8.07%

5.10%

8.99%

5.10%

7.47%

4.50%

5.85%

4.20%

6.02%

4.90%

7.44%

5.30%

6.10%

5.00%

6.09%

5.10%

5.85%

5.90%

5.25%

6.30%

5.31%

6.00%

4.51%

5.80%

4.90%

5.40%


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7


15

INTERNET JOB VACANCIES - BALLARAT & CENTRAL HIGHLANDS

140

160

180

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

ap

r.14

may.1

4

jun

.14

jul.14

au

g.1

4

sep

.14

oct.

14

no

v.1

4

de

c.1

4

jan

.15

feb

.15

mar.

15

ap

r.15

may.1

5

jun

.15

jul.15

au

g.1

5

sep

.15

oct.

15

no

v.1

5

de

c.1

5

jan

.16

feb

.16

mar.

16

ap

r.16

may.1

6

jun

.16

jul.16

au

g.1

6

sep

.16

oct.

16

no

v.1

6

de

c.1

6

jan

.17

feb

.17

mar.

17

ap

r.17

106108

114114 114

135

127

134130131

119121

126

144

157160

142

129 129

143

147

153 153150

155157

167 166

154151

145

163

154

138 139

129

109


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

16

INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

$200 000 000

$400 000 000

$600 000 000

$800 000 000

$1 000 000 000

$1 200 000 000

$-2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

S L I G H T LYN E G A T I V E

17

DWELLING SALES

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

House Other Total Sales

01999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1

2099

2354

2916 29283008

2740

25182459

2660

2281

2980

2786

2661

24342465 2494

2401

2217

513


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

18

VACANCY RATE V. MEDIAN RENT

$350

4%

5%

5%

$300

3%

4%$250

3%

$200

2%$150

2%$100

1%

$50

Rent HOUSE Vacancy

1%

$- 0%

2.12%

$190

2006

2.24%

$199

2005 2007

2.46%

$202

2008

2.04%

$223

2009

4.54%

$233

2010

1.16%

$248

2011

2.22%

$265

2012

1.82%

$270

2013

2.84%

$272

2014

2.74%

$275

2015

2.28%

$278

2016

2.12%

$283

2.30%

$300


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7


19

DWELLING APPROVALS

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Population Change (Number) Commentments (Approvals Minus 20%) & Based on 2.24 Persons per Household

02003

1022

1617

2004

585

1667

2005

888

1655

2006

2850

1475

2007

1296

1469

2008

1742

1570

2009

1836

1553

2010

2022

2257

2011

1880

1979

2012

1798

1895

2013

1711

1814

2014

1725

1744

2015

1690

2070

2016

2083

1673

935

2017


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

20

LONG TERM PERFORMANCE

2%

1%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%LT

6.34%

10YR

3.76%

7YR

4.87%

5YR

2.40%

3YR

2.33%


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

N E U T R A L

21

YIELDS

9%

7%

8%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7.77%7.65%

7.30%

6.44%

5.71%

4.85% 4.82%4.99%

4.88%5.11% 5.22%

5.06%5.17%

4.89%5.05% 5.04% 4.98% 4.94%

5.03%

Yield House Yield Unit


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7

P O S I T I V E

22

BALLARAT MEDIAN PRICE V. GREATER MELBOURNE MEDIAN

120%

$600 000

$700 000

$800 000

$900 000

100%

$500 000

80%

$400 000

60%

$300 00040%

$200 000

20%

% Difference Melbourne V. Ballarat (LT Avg 49.8%)

$100 000

0% $-

59.2%61.1%

59.0%

52.5%49.7%

52.0%

52.0%

55.6%

52.3%51.0%

56.0%

52.3%

47.5%

41.8%

40.9%

38.6%

37.7%

41.8%

45.6%

53.4%

56.9%55.9%

51.8%

50.4%

52.5%

45.5%

47.2%

54.7%

50.9%

43.8%

44.3%

40.5%

38.0%

Ballarat Median Melbourne Median

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17


E D I T I O N 1 | 2 0 1 7


23

PRICE COMPARISON

-60%

-70%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

-3%

-5%

-3% -3%

-24%-22%

-61%

-52%

Albury Bendigo Geelong Melbourne

Current Average

24

All property must pass our stringent investment criteria and is subject to a thorough due diligence process. Our low risk approach excludes 99% of all properties currently on the market. We never source properties direct from developers and we don’t buy properties off the plan or in new housing developments. We have a strict no commission policy preventing us from ever taking commissions from agents or referrers. We believe in providing quality ethical advice and exceptional customer service. We pride ourselves on delivering successful outcomes every time, guaranteed.

Our objective is not to buy you a property. Purchasing a property is the last step in our considered and thorough process.Our mission is to understand and satisfy your needs – financial or emotional, in a low risk and efficient manner. Our objective is to build you wealth through sophisticated property investment. We believe in everything we do because we treat your investment portfolio like it was our own.

PERFORMANCEPROPERTY ADVISORYIS A DYNAMIC PROPERTYFIRM PROVIDINGPROPERTY ACQUISITIONSERVICES ACROSSAUSTRALIA. OURFIRM IS COMPLETELYRESEARCH DRIVEN ANDWE APPLY A SOUNDCOUNTERCYCLICALINVESTMENT APPROACH.

RESEARCH

Macro Micro Property

PERFORMANCEPROPERTYADVISORYSERVICES

Property Acquisition

Australian Bureauof Statistics

Foreign InvestmentReview Board

Australian Trade &InvestmentCommission

BIS Shrapnel

Residex

SQM Research

CoreLogic RP Data

PropertyManagement

Portfolio Review

Sales Advisory /Vendor Advocacy

DATASOURCES:

ACQUIRE

Find Assess Negotiate

MANAGE

Property Management

REVIEW

Annual Portfolio Review

ADVISE

Hold Improve Dispose

WHY USE US?OUR PROCESS

INVESTMENTPHILOSOPHY

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BALLARAT REGIONAL CENTRE OVERVIEW · Ballarat is currently the 17th most populated area in the...

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