Bai Doc 22-2. Troi Mua, Nuoc Trut- Chinh Sach Kinh Te Vi Mo Va Cac Dong Von Thuan Chu Ky

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Nin kho 2011-2013

Kinh t hc v m Bi c

Tri ma nc trt: Chnh sch kinh t v m v cc dng vn thun chu k

Kaminsky, Reinhart, and Vgh 1 Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

TTrrii mmaa,, nncc ttrrtt::

CChhnnhh sscchh kkiinnhh tt vv mm vv cccc ddnngg vvnn

tthhuunn cchhuu kk

Graciela L. Kaminsky

i hc George Washington v NBER

Carmen M. Reinhart i hc Maryland, College Park

v NBER

Carlos A. Vgh UCLA v NBER

Tm tt

Da trn mu nghin cu 104 nc, chng ti dn chng bn s kin thc t nh hnh mt kiu cch/m thc v s tng tc gia cc dng vn, chnh sch ngn sch, v chnh sch tin t. Th nht, cc dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k (ngha l vay mn bn ngoi tng ln trong nhng thi k thun li v gim xung vo nhng thi k kh khn) ti hu ht cc nc OECD v cc nc ang pht trin. Th hai, chnh sch thu chi ngn sch c tnh thun chu k (ngha l chi tiu chnh ph tng ln vo nhng thi k thun li v gim xung trong nhng thi k kh khn) i vi a s cc nc ang pht trin. Th ba, i vi cc th trng mi ni, chnh sch tin t xem ra c tnh thun chu k (ngha l cc mc li sut chnh sch gim thp hn vo nhng thi k thun li v tng vo nhng thi k kh khn). Th t, ti cc nc ang pht trin, v c bit i vi cc th trng mi ni, thi k c cc dng vn vo thng gn lin vi cc chnh sch kinh t v m m rng v thi k cc dng vn ra i km vi cc chnh sch kinh t v m thu hp. Do , ti nhng nc ny, qu tht chng khc g hin tng lu lm khng ma, khi tri ma nc nh trt.

I. DN NHP

Bt k mt chuyn gia no v khng hong ti chnh ti cc th trng mi ni cng c th trch dn cc bng chng phong ph h tr quan im cho rng cc chnh sch kinh t v m c tnh thun chu k cao , t nht l trong nhng thi im kh khn bc bch. Vo nhng lc hot ng kinh t ang thu hp (thng l ng k) gia mt cuc khng hong, c quan chu trch nhim ti kho ct gim thm ht ngn sch trong khi ngn hng trung ng tng li sut c th lm trm trng thm s thu hp v kinh t. Tuy nhin, cc chnh sch thun chu k xem ra khng phi ch gii hn trong nhng thi k khng hong ti nhiu nc ang pht trin. Thc ra, ci r ca phn ln cc cuc khng hong n ti cc th trng mi ni cng thng c tm thy vic chnh ph nhng nc ny vung tay chi tiu v vay mn nhiu khi tnh hnh thun li v ngun vn quc t di do.1

c php in li cho bo co thng nin NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL 2004 v nh xut bn MIT.

Kaminsky ang tham quan ti Vin nghin cu ca IMF v Vgh l hc gi thm nin Phng Nghin cu ca IMF khi vit bi ny. C hai tc gi v cng bit n lng hiu khch ca IMF. Kaminsky v Vgh cng xin cm n s h tr ti chnh ca Vin Chnh sch cng trng i hc George Washington v ban gim hiu UCLA. Cc tc gi xin cm n Peter Benczur, Mark Gertler, Gita Gopinath, Ayhan Kose, Pablo Lopez Murphy, Attila Raftai, Raghu Rajan, Alessandro Rebucci, Vincent R. Reinhart, Roberto Rigobon, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Evan Tanner, v Guillermo

Tolosa v nhng nhn xt v xut b ch, v xin cm n Eric Bang v c bit l Ioannis Tokatlidis v cng vic tr l nghin cu xut sc. Bi vit ny c son tho cho hi ngh ln th 19 ca NBER v Kinh t v m do Mark Gertler v Kenneth S. Rogoff t chc. Cc quan im trnh by y l quan im ca ring cc tc gi, ch khng phi ca IMF. 1 Tm c nghin cu ca Reinhart, Rogoff v Savastano (2003) phn tch v chu k vay mn/ v n.

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Kinh t hc v m Bi c


Kaminsky, Reinhart, and Vgh Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

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Gavin v Perotti (1997) ln u tin ku gi s ch n hin tng chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k thng qua vic chng minh rng chnh sch ngn sch chu M Latinh c xu hng m rng vo nhng thi k thun li v thu hp vo nhng thi k kh khn. Talvi v Vgh (2000) lp lun rng, chng phi l mt hin tng c th ca chu M Latinh, chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k xem ra l thng l trong th gii ang pht trin cng ging nh chnh sch ngn sch khng theo chu k ti cc nn kinh t tin tin. S dng mt tip cn kinh t lng khc, Braun (2001) i n mt kt lun tng t cho cc nc ang pht trin, mc d ng pht hin cc bng chng cho thy chnh sch ngn sch c tnh nghch chu k ti cc nc OECD. Lane (2003b) cng trnh by bng chng v tnh thun chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch ti cc nc ang pht trin so vi cc nc OECD. Trong cng mt mch nghin cu, Gupta v nhng ngi khc (2004) tm thy bng chng kinh t lng h tr cho tnh thun chu k ca chi tiu chnh ph ti cc nc ang pht trin, tuy nhin mc thun chu k thay i theo cc loi chi tiu khc nhau.

Ngi ta a ra mt s cch gii thch cho tnh thun chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch ti cc nc ang pht trin so vi cc quc gia cng nghip. Cng vi nhng ngi khc, Favin v Perotti (1997) lp lun rng cc nc ang pht trin ng trc s rng buc tn dng ngn h khng th vay mn vo nhng thi k kh khn. V th, h buc phi hon tr n vo nhng thi k kh khn, iu i hi mt chnh sch ngn sch thu hp. Ngc li, Tornell v Lane (1999) trin khai mt m hnh kinh t chnh tr trong vic tranh ginh mt ngun vn chung gia cc n v khc nhau (cc b, cc tnh) dn n ci gi l hiu ng khao kht/tham lam (voracity effect), trong chi tiu ngn sch c th tht s vt qu ngun thu cho trc (hay t mt ngun t trn tri ri xung windfall). ng vi s bin dng chnh tr nh vy, Talvi v Vgh (2000) chng minh rng cc nh hoch nh chnh sch c th tm thy vic duy tr t thng d ngn sch c bn l ti u trong nhng thi k thun li bng cch gia tng chi tiu chnh ph v ct gim thu sut. Cui cng, Riascos v Vgh (2003) trnh by cch thc cc th trng khng hon chnh c th gii thch cho chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k nh mt kt qu ca trc trc Ramsey m khng phi b sung thm bt k yu t c xt no.

Trn phng din chnh sch tin t, trong khi chc chn ta c n tng rng cc nc ang pht trin thng tht cht cc rng buc tin t vo nhng lc kh khn (tm c nghin cu ca Lane 2003b), nhng cc cng trnh nghin cu thc nghim mt cch c h thng vn cn him hoi.

2 iu ny c l do nhng kh khn m ai cng bit (thm ch ngay c cc nc tin tin)

trong vic m t nhng c im thc nghim v quan im ca chnh sch tin t .3

Da vo s liu 104 quc gia giai on 1960-2003, bi vit ny xem xt li bng chng v tnh thun chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch, v trong phm vi hiu bit ca chng ti, bi vit ny cng trnh by mt n lc c h thng u tin chng minh bng t liu thc nghim cc thuc tnh chu k ca chnh sch tin t ti cc nc ang pht trin. Nghin cu ny bt u t nhng n lc trc y tm hiu v cc chu k chnh sch ngn sch trn nhiu phng din. Th nht, nghin cu ny cung cp mt khung phn tch v cch l gii ng thi ca nhiu ch bo ngn sch c tnh bao qut, dn ti vic din gii li mt s kt qu nghin cu trc y trong t liu. Th hai, nghin cu ny phn tch cc nc c phn loi theo cc mc thu nhp

2 L d nhin, nu thi k kh khn y c nh ngha ring bit l cc cuc khng hong tin t hay khng

hong ngn hng, th c mt khi lng t liu tuy t nhng ang ngy cng gia tng v chnh sch tin t ni chung v s bo v li sut ni ring (v d nh nghin cu ca Aghion, Bacchetta, v Banerjee (2001), Flood v Jeanne (2000), v Lahiri v Vgh (2003)). Tuy nhin, bng chng thc nghim trong lnh vc ny tng i khng c tnh cht kt lun dt khot. 3 Tm c tho lun v mt s th thch trong vic c lng cc quy tc chnh sch tin t ca cc nc cng

nghip trong nghin cu ca Clarida, Gali v Gertler (1999).


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nhm phn nh s kin l trong khi cc nc giu lin tc c tip cn cc th trng vn quc t, th cc nc thu nhp thp gn nh lun lun b ng ca , v cc nc thu nhp trung bnh c mi quan h bp bnh v bin ng vi ngun vn quc t. Th ba, nghin cu ny xem xt k lng mi tng tc gia chu k kinh t, cc dng vn quc t, v chnh sch kinh t v m.4 Tin ca chng ti l chu k dng vn gn cht vi chu k kinh t v thm ch c th nh hng n cc chnh sch kinh t v m, c bit ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh. Th t, nghin cu ny a ra mt tip cn c tnh chit trung (da vo nhiu ngun khc nhau) hng n nh ngha thi k thun li (good times) v kh khn (bad times), v o lng quan im ca chnh sch tin t v chnh sch ngn sch thng qua trin khai nhiu ch bo. Th nm, nghin cu ny phn chia mu iu tra theo nhiu bnh din, thng qua (i) phn bit cc tnh hung khng hong khc nhau so vi thi k thanh bnh, (ii) xem xt cc c ch t gi hi oi c nh mt cch tch bit vi cc c ch linh hot, v (iii) so snh cc thi k trc y v cc thi k gn y hn nh gi xem mc hi nhp th trng vn c lm thay i cc m thc v cc mi quan h c tnh chu k hay khng. Cui cng, phn tch ny a ra mt kt qu nghin cu tm quc gia c tnh ton din hn so vi nhng n lc trc y.

Bi vit ny c tip tc nh sau. Phn tip theo tho lun khung khi nim c bn s dng l gii s liu v cc dng vn, chnh sch ngn sch v chnh sch tin t, cng nh m t tip cn theo xc nh cc chu k kinh t. Phn III trnh by nhn nh tng quan v cc pht hin chnh ca chng ti, phn IV nu chi tit hn cc s kin c nh hnh chnh thng qua phn loi cc nc theo cc mc thu nhp u ngi, loi hnh c ch t gi hi oi, v cc phn nhm mu nghin cu c lin quan khc. Phn V trnh by nhn xt kt lun.

II. KHUNG KHI NIM

Phn ny xy dng khung khi nim s dng l gii cc pht hin thc nghim ca chng ti trong cc phn sau. Mt cch c th, chng ti s tho lun cch suy ngh v cc thuc tnh chu k ca cc dng vn, chnh sch ngn sch, v chnh sch tin t. Vic tm hiu xuyn sut t liu nghin cu ang n r trong lnh vc tm hiu v chu k chnh sch ti cc nc ang pht trin cho thy mt cch tip cn t nhiu lng lo trong vic nh ngha cc khi nim c bn; iu ny thng lm cho vic tho lun tr nn tng i km chnh xc. V d, chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k thng c nh ngha l c thm ht ngn sch vo nhng thi k kh khn v thng d ngn sch vo nhng thi k thun li (ngha l c mi tng quan ng bin gia thay i sn lng v thay i s d ngn sch). Tuy nhin, nh chng ti s lp lun, y l mt cch nh ngha khi nim tht ng tic v thm ht ngn sch vo nhng thi k kh khn c th nht qun vi cc tip cn khc nhau n nh ho ngn sch. Cng theo mch lp lun ny, vic xem xt cc bin s ngn sch nh mt t phn ca GDP nh a s thng lm trong t liu nghin cu ny c th mang li nhng kt qu gy hiu lm v quan im chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch c th b chi phi bi ng thi c tnh chu k ca sn lng.

Trn tinh thn ca nhng vn khi nim c bn ny, v vi ri ro c l i khi xut hin mt cch hin nhin, chng ti s trnh by c th v cch thc nh ngha tnh nghch chu k, thun chu k v khng theo chu k nh th no.

II. 1 Cc dng vn

Chng ti nh ngha thuc tnh chu k ca cc dng vn nh sau (bng 1):

4 Trong ton b bi vit ny, chu k kinh t c ngha l chu k GDP thc.


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Bng 1. Cc dng vn: Mi tng quan l thuyt vi chu k kinh t

Cc dng vn vo rng Dng vn vo rng/GDP

Nghch chu k - - Thun chu k + +/0/- Khng theo chu k 0 -

i. Cc dng vn chy vo mt t nc c gi l c tnh nghch chu k khi mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng v sn lng l m (hay nghch bin). Ni cch khc, nn kinh t vay mn t nc ngoi trong nhng thi k kh khn (tc l vn chy vo), v cho vay/tr n trong nhng thi k thun li (tc l vn chy ra).

ii. Cc dng vn c tnh thun chu k khi mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng v sn lng l dng (hay ng bin). Nh vy, nn kinh t vay mn t nc ngoi trong nhng thi k thun li (tc l vn chy vo) v cho vay/ tr n trong nhng thi k kh khn (tc l vn chy ra).

iii. Cc dng vn khng theo chu k khi mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng v sn lng khng c ngha thng k. Nh vy, m thc vay v cho vay quc t khng c quan h mt cch h thng vi chu k kinh t.

Trong khi cc nh ngha ny t n th hin r rng, th phc ho gia cc thuc tnh c tnh chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng tnh theo t phn so GDP (mt s o c s dng ph bin) v chu k kinh t li khng c r rng. Nh ct 3 ca bng 1 cho thy, trong trng hp dng vn vo c tnh nghch chu k, t l ny c tng quan m vi sn lng v trong thi k thun li (kh khn), dng vn vo rng gim (tng) v GDP tng (gim). Tuy nhin, trong trng hp dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k, t l ny c th c du bt k v trong thi k thun li (kh khn), dng vn vo rng tng (gim) v GDP cng tng (gim). Trong trng hp dng vn vo khng theo chu k, t l ny cng chu nh hng ca s thay i GDP v do c tng quan m. Nh vy, t l dng vn vo trn GDP ch mang li mt ch bo m h v tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng, v nu n c du dng (hay bng khng), trong trng hp , n s biu th dng vn c tnh thun chu k. Tuy nhin, nu n c du m, ta s khng th phn bit c liu n c tnh thun chu k, nghch chu k, hay khng theo chu k.

Nh vy, nh ngha ca chng ti v cc thuc tnh c tnh chu k ca cc dng vn ch trng vo vic xem xt liu cc dng vn c xu hng tng cng hay bnh n chu k kinh t. lm r tng ny, ta hy xem xt m hnh ngun lc tiu chun ca mt nn kinh t m nh (khng c tin t). Khi khng c bt k s bin dng lin thi gian no, cc h gia nh s mun duy tr vic tiu dng ca h u n theo thi gian . V th, phn ng trc mt c sc ngun lc tiu cc nht thi, nn kinh t s vay mn t nc ngoi duy tr mc tiu dng lu di. Trong sut nhng thi k thun li, nn kinh t s hon tr n vay. Nh vy, tit kim c tng quan dng vi chu k kinh t. V th, trong m hnh tiu chun khng c u t, dng vn vo s c tnh nghch chu k v s c xu hng gip bnh n chu k kinh t. L t nhin, trong m hnh thc tiu chun, i ng vi vic vay mn nghch chu k l ti khon vng lai thun chu k.

Ngc li, nu nn kinh t vay mn trong nhng thi k thun li v cho vay vo nhng thi k kh khn, cc dng vn s c tnh thun chu k v cc dng vn c xu hng tng cng chu k kinh t. Trong trng hp ny, i ng s l ti khon vng lai c tnh nghch chu k. Cch gii thch l thuyt c v hp l cho cc dng vn thun chu k ny l nh sau. Th nht, gi s ngun vn vt cht c b sung vo m hnh c bn c m t trn y v chu k kinh t chu


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nh hng ca c sc nng sut. Khi , c sc nng sut tch cc v nht thi s dn n s gia tng tit kim (v ng c iu ho tiu dng nh m t trn y) v dn n tng u t (v sinh li ca vn gia tng). Nu hiu ng u t ln lt, th vic vay mn s c tnh thun chu k v nhu cu ti tr vic u t c kh nng sinh li s b tr nhiu hn hiu ng tit kim.

Cch gii thch th hai - c bit ph hp vi cc nc th trng mi ni l do s bin dng lin thi gian trong vic tiu dng xy ra do cc chnh sch nht thi (nh cc chng trnh bnh n lm pht hay cc chnh sch t do ho nht thi; tm c nghin cu ca Calvo, 1987 v Calvo v Vgh 1999). Mt h qu ngoi mun ca cc chnh sch nht thi nh th l lm cho vic tiu dng tr nn tng i r hn trong nhng thi k thun li (thng qua gim gi tiu dng hiu dng), v th dn n bng n tiu dng, c ti tr bng vay mn t nc ngoi. Trong trng hp ny, tit kim gim vo nhng thi k thun li, lm cho cc dng vn c tnh thun chu k.5

Kh nng th ba cng ph hp vi cc nc th trng mi ni l tnh trng sn c ca dng vn quc t thay i theo chu k kinh t. Nu cc nh u t nc ngoi phn ng trc bng chng v tnh hnh s ci thin ca nn kinh t a phng bng cch gim ph n b ri ro quc gia (country risk premiums) (c th c khuyn khch bi li sut thp ti cc trung tm ti chnh), dn c ca mt nn kinh t nh c th xem y l mt c hi nht thi ti tr cho vic tiu dng r hn v do h s gim tit kim.6 Ta cng nn nh rng bng n tiu dng c ti tr bi cc dng vn vo ti nhiu nn kinh t th trng mi ni vo na u thp nin 90, vo thi c xem l mt v d v vn nn dng vn vo, nh trong nghin cu ca Calvo, Leiderman, v Reinhart (1993, 1994).

Cui cng, lu rng trn thc t, s thay i d tr quc t c th ph v mi lin kt gia vay mn thun chu k v thm ht ti khon vng lai (hay vay mn nghch chu k v thng d ti khon vng lai) pht sinh trong m hnh lin thi gian thc c bn. Qu tht, ta hy nh li ng nht thc hch ton cn cn thanh ton c bn:

Thay i d tr quc t = S d ti khon vng lai + S d ti khon vn.

V th, ly v d, dng vn vo rng dng (thng d ti khon vn) s khng nht thit gn lin vi s d ti khon vng lai m (thm ht ti khon vng lai) nu d tr quc t ang tng. Do , thuc tnh chu k ca ti khon vng lai l mt ch bo khng hon ho v thuc tnh chu k ca dng vn.

II.2. Chnh sch ngn sch

V khi nim tnh chu k ca chnh sch c ngha quan trng do n c th gip chng ta hiu c hay hng dn chnh sch thc t, cho nn cch duy nht c ngha nh ngha tnh chu k ca chnh sch l nh ngha theo cc cng c chnh sch, ch khng phi cc kt qu c to ra (ngha l cc bin ni sinh). V th, ta s nh ngha tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch

theo chi tiu chnh ph (g) v thu sut () (thay v nh ngha theo s d ngn sch hay s thu thu chng hn). ng vi nh ngha ny, sau ta s xem xt ngha v mt chu k i vi cc bin ni sinh quan trng nh s d ngn sch c bn, s thu thu, v cc bin ngn sch tnh theo t l phn trm ca GDP. Chng ta nh ngha tnh chu k ca chnh sch nh sau (xem bng 2).

5 Lane v Tornell (1998) trnh by cc bng chng thc nghim cho thy tit kim cc nc chu M Latinh

thung c tnh nghch chu k (ngha l tit kim gim vo nhng thi k tt p v ngc li). 6 Phn IV trnh by bng chng h tr cho gi thit ny. c thm nghin cu ca Neumeyer v Perri (2004) xem

xt tm quan trng ca ri ro quc gia tc ng n chu k kinh t ti cc nn kinh t mi ni.


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Bng 2. Cc ch bo thu chi ngn sch: Mi tng quan l thuyt vi chu k kinh t

g S thu thu

S d ngn sch c bn

g/GDP S thu thu/GDP

S d ngn sch c bn/GDP

Nghch chu k - + + + - +/0/- +/0/- Thun chu k + - +/0/- +/0/- +/0/- +/0/- +/0/- Khng theo chu k 0 0 + + - +/0/- +/0/-

i. Mt chnh sch ngn sch s c tnh nghch chu k khi n lin quan n chi tiu chnh ph thp hn (cao hn) v thu sut cao hn (thp hn) vo nhng thi k thun li (kh khn). Chng ti gi chnh sch l nghch chu k v n c xu hng gip bnh n chu k kinh t (ngha l chnh sch ngn sch thu hp vo nhng thi k thun li v chnh sch ngn sch m rng vo nhng thi k kh khn).

ii. Mt chnh sch ngn sch s c tnh thun chu k khi n lin quan n chi tiu chnh ph cao hn (thp hn) v thu sut thp hn (cao hn) vo nhng thi k thun li (kh khn). Ta gi chnh sch l thun chu k v n c xu hng tng cng cho chu k kinh t (ngha l chnh sch ngn sch m rng vo nhng thi k thun li v thu hp vo nhng thi k kh khn).7

iii. Mt chnh sch ngn sch c gi l khng theo chu k khi n lin quan n chi tiu chnh ph khng i v thu sut khng i trong chu k (hay ni chnh xc hn, trong trng hp ca mt th gii ngu nhin, chi tiu chnh ph v thu sut khng thay i mt cch h thng cng vi chu k kinh t). Chng ta gi chnh sch l chnh sch khng theo chu k v n khng tng cng m cng khng bnh n chu k kinh t.

Cc mi tng quan th hin qua cc nh ngha ny c trnh by trong hai ct u ca bng 2.

K n chng ta chuyn sang ngha ca nh ngha tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch ny i vi ng thi ca s thu thu, s d ngn sch c bn, cng nh t l chi tiu chnh ph trn GDP, s thu thu trn GDP, v s d ngn sch c bn trn GDP.8 lm iu ny, ta s s dng hai nh ngha di y:

S thu thu = Thu sut x C s thu S d ngn sch c bn = S thu thu - Chi tiu chnh ph (khng k chi thanh ton li vay)

7 iu quan trng cn lu l theo nh ngha ny, chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k ngm th hin mi tng

quan m gia thu sut v sn lng trong chu k kinh t. V th, thut ng ca chng ti khc vi thut ng trong t liu nghin cu v chu k kinh t thc, trong mt bin s bt k tng quan dng (nghch bin) vi sn lng u c gi l thun chu k (nghch chu k). 8 Cng nn lu rng khi suy ra mi tng quan l thuyt di y, gi nh duy nht l c s thu (thu thu theo

sn lng hay thu theo tiu dng) l cao vo nhng thi k thun li v thp vo nhng thi k kh khn. Trong trng hp thu thu theo sn lng, iu ny l ng theo nh ngha; cn trong trng hp thu thu theo tiu dng, iu ny c chng minh bng t liu nghin cu s. Ngoi gi nh c bn ny, nhng iu suy ra tip theo l mt bi tp hch ton m khng ph thuc vo mt m hnh c th no.


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Trc tin, ta hy xem xt mt chnh sch ngn sch khng theo chu k. V thu sut khng i theo chu k kinh t, ng thi c s thu tng ln vo nhng thi k thun li v gim xung vo nhng thi k kh khn, nn s thu thu s c tng quan dng vi chu k kinh t. iu ny tip n ng rng s d ngn sch c bn cng s tng quan dng vi chu k kinh t. T l chi tiu chnh ph (khng k thanh ton li vay) trn GDP s tng quan m vi chu k kinh t v chi tiu chnh ph khng thay i, v theo nh ngha, GDP cao (thp) vo nhng thi k thun li (kh khn). ng vi s thu thu cao hn (thp hn) vo nhng thi k thun li (kh khn), mi tng quan gia t l s thu thu trn GDP v chu k kinh t s c tnh m h (ngha l, n c th l tng quan dng, bng khng, hay tng quan m nh biu th trong bng 2). V th, mi tng quan gia t l s d ngn sch c bn trn GDP vi chu k kinh t cng m h.

By gi ta hy xem xt mt chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k. V theo nh ngha, thu sut gim xung (tng ln) trong nhng thi k thun li (kh khn), nhng c s thu thay i theo hng ngc li, nn mi tng quan ca s thu thu vi chu k kinh t s khng r rng. V g tng ln vo nhng thi k thun li, nn trn nguyn tc, mi tng quan ca g/GDP c th c gi tr bt k. ng vi ng thi m h v tnh chu k ca s thu thu, tnh chu k ca t l s thu thu trn GDP cng m h. Tnh chu k ca t l s d ngn sch trn GDP cng m h.

Cui cng, ta xem xt mt chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k. Theo nh ngha, thu sut cao vo nhng thi k thun li v thp vo nhng thi k kh khn; iu ny c ngha l s thu thu thay i ng bin vi chu k kinh t. iu tng t cng ng vi s d ngn sch c bn khi s thu thu tng (gim) v chi tiu chnh ph gim (tng) trong nhng thi k thun li (kh khn). T l g/GDP s thay i nghch bin vi chu k kinh t v g gim (tng) vo nhng thi k thun li (kh khn). V s thu thu tng trong nhng thi k thun li, nn ng thi ca t l s thu thu trn GDP s tr nn m h v v th, ng thi ca t l s d ngn sch c bn trn GDP cng m h.

Ta suy ra mt s quan st quan trng t bng 2 v s hu ch ca cc ch bo khc nhau khi phn bit gia ba trng hp:

i. Nhn t gc l thuyt, cc ch bo tt nht ta xem xt l chi tiu chnh ph v s thu thu. Theo nh ngha, cc ch bo ny phn bit r rng gia ba trng hp. Nh th hin r qua bng 2, khng mt ch bo no khc c kh nng phn bit . Tuy nhin, trn thc t, khng c s liu h thng v thu sut (c l ngoi thu sut lm pht (inflation tax rate)), cho nn ta ch cn chi tiu chnh ph l ch bo tt nht.

ii. ng thi c tnh chu k ca s thu thu s hu ch ch trong phm vi khi n c mi tng quan m hay zero vi chu k kinh t. Khi , n s l mt ch bo khng cn m h v chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k. N s cho thy trng hp, trong mc thun chu k tr nn cc oan n ni trong nhng thi k kh khn chng hn, tng thu sut c tuyn b s hoc l b tr hoc l ln t s gim st ca c s thu.

iii. ng thi c tnh chu k ca s d ngn sch c bn s hu ch trong phm vi n c mi tng quan m hay zero vi chu k kinh t. Khi , ch bo ny s tr nn khng cn m h v chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k. N s cho thy trng hp, trong , vo nhng thi k thun li, chi tiu chnh ph gia tng hoc l b tr thm ch ln t nhiu hn s gia tng s thu thu, hay trng hp m trong , vo nhng


Kinh t hc v m Bi c



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thi k thun li, s thu thu gim s gip tng cng nh hng ca chi tiu chnh ph cao hn i vi s d ngn sch c bn. ng vi nh ngha ca chng ti v tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch, s khng chnh xc nu suy lun rng thm ht ngn sch c bn vo nhng thi k kh khn s l tn hiu cho thy chnh sch ngn sch c tnh nghch chu k. Trn nguyn tc, thm ht ngn sch c bn vo nhng thi k kh khn nht qun vi bt k trng hp no trong ba trng hp (thun, nghch, hoc khng theo chu k).9

iv. T l s d ngn sch c bn trn GDP s khng bao gi gip ta hiu c mt cch r rng thuc tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch. iu th v l, phn ln t liu nghin cu (Gavin v Perotti (1997), Braun (2001), Dixon (2003), Lane (2003b) v Calderon v Schmidth Hebbel (2003)) li rt ra kt lun thng qua xem xt ch bo ny. V d, Gavin v Perotti (1997) tm thy rng phn ng ca t l thng d ngn sch trn GDP trc s gia tng 1 im phn trm ca t l tng trng sn lng th khng khc khng v mt thng k chu M Latinh, v xem y l ch bo v chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k. Ngc li, Calderon v Schmidt Hebbel (2003b) tm thy nh hng nghch bin ca h cch sn lng i vi s sai lch ca s d ngn sch so vi trung bnh mu v l gii iu ny l chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k. Tuy nhin, ng vi nh ngha ca chng ti, ta khng th rt ra kt lun g (nh th hin r qua ct cui cng ca bng 2).

v. T s g/GDP s hu ch ch trong phm vi m n c tng quan dng hay zero vi chu k kinh t. Ch khi , n mi l mt ch bo r rng l chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k. Ni cch khc, vic pht hin rng t s ny c tng quan m vi chu k kinh t s khng cho php chng ta phn bit c ba trng hp. Mt ln na, iu ny cho thy ta cn thn trng trong vic l gii mt s t liu nghin cu hin ti m da vo ch bo ny rt ra kt lun.

vi. Cui cng, ng thi c tnh chu k ca t l s thu thu trn GDP s khng c bit hu ch trong vic chc bo cho chng ta v cc thuc tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch khi ng thi l thuyt ca s o ny m h trong c 3 trng hp.

Tm li, tho lun ca chng ti cho thy rng cn phi ht sc thn trng khi rt ra kt lun v tnh chu k ca chnh sch da vo hoc l s d ngn sch c bn hay cc t l ca s d ngn sch c bn, chi tiu chnh ph v s thu thu trn GDP. Trn tinh thn ny, chng ti s ch da vo nhng ch bo m theo nh ngha v tnh thun chu k, gip mang li mt s o khng m h v quan im chnh sch ngn sch: chi tiu chnh ph v thu sut lm pht (c dung nh bin i din cho thu sut).10

Nhn t gc l thuyt, c nhiu m hnh khc nhau c th hp l ho cc quan im khc nhau v chnh sch ngn sch trong chu k kinh t. Chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k c th c hp l ho thng qua s dng m hnh Keynes truyn thng (c v mi) vi mt hm mc tiu m th hin vic sn lng bin thin hay tch ri xu hng khi tng (gim) chi tiu chnh

9 Cng v l , xem ra tht khng khn ngoan khi nh ngha chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k l tng quan m

gia sn lng v s d ngn sch (nh i khi ngi ta vn lm trong t liu nghin cu) v tng quan dng v bng khng vn c th nht qun vi chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k, nh nh ngha trn y. 10

L d nhin, chng ti hon ton thc c rng chc chn khng c s nht tr v vic thu lm pht c c xem l mt loi thu khc, trong khi c s l thuyt lm iu ny lin quan n nghin cu ca Phelps (1973) v c ci tin t by gi (v d, tm c nghin cu ca Chati v Kehoe (1999)), ngha thc nghim ca lm pht nh mt khon thu ti u ch nhn c s h tr ln ln (tm c tho lun ca Calvo v Vgh (1999)).


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ph v/hay gim (tng) thu sut s lm m rng (thu hp) sn lng. Mt chnh sch ngn sch khng theo chu k c th c hp l ho bng cc m hnh tn c in v chnh sch ngn sch ti u, trong ku gi thu sut khng i theo chu k kinh t (tm c nghin cu ca Chari v Kehoe (1999)). Nu chi tiu chnh ph c ni sinh trong m hnh (nh l bng cch cung cp tha dng trc tip), n s c ng thi ti u theo cch tng t nh tiu dng t nhn v v th s khng theo chu k khi c cc th trng hon chnh (Riascos v Vgh (2003)). Chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k c th c hp l ho thng qua vin dn s bin dng chnh tr (Tornell v Lane (1999) v Talvi v Vgh (2000)), cc iu kin rng buc vay mn (Gavin v Perotti (1997) v Aizeman, Gavin v Hausmann (1996)), hay cc th trng khng hon chnh (Riascos v Vgh (2003)).

III.3. Chnh sch tin t

Thc hin mt nghin cu khi nim tng t nh vy cho chnh sch tin t th kh khn hn nhiu bi v (i) cc cng c chnh sch tin t c th ph thuc vo c ch t gi hi oi hin ti v (ii) chng minh cc kt qu (ngha l xc nh ng thi ca cc bin ni sinh) i hi phi s dng mt s m hnh (ngm n).

V mc ch ca nghin cu ny, chng ti thy ch cn nh ngha hai c ch t gi hi oi l : t gi hi oi c nh hay xc nh trc, v t gi hi oi linh hot (m chng ti nh ngha l bao gm mi c ch trong t gi hi oi c php c t nhiu tnh linh hot). Theo nh ngha, c ch t gi hi oi linh hot bao gm c ch th ni hon ton (clean floats) (kh him) v th ni c kim sot (dirty floats) (ph bin hn, nh c chng minh bng t liu trong nghin cu ca Reinhart v Rogoff (2004)).

Vi nhng gi nh nht nh, mt cng c chnh sch ph bin trong bi cnh hai c ch t gi hi oi ny s th hin qua mc li sut ngn hn. V d ni bt nht l li sut tin t lin bang Hoa K (federal funds rate); y l li sut lin ngn hng qua m thit lp mc tiu chnh sch chnh ca Cc d tr lin bang. Nhn t gc l thuyt, di c ch t gi hi oi linh hot, chnh sch tin t chc chn c th c ngh n di hnh thc mt s mc li sut ngn hn v thay i cung tin s trc tip nh hng n li sut. Trong c ch t gi hi oi c nh hay xc nh trc, gi nh duy nht cn thit mt mc li sut ngn hn c xem l mt cng c chnh sch tin t l c s thay th khng hon ho gia ti sn trong nc v ti sn nc ngoi (tm c nghin cu ca Flood v Leanne (2000) v Lahiri v Vgh (2003)). Tht ra, thng l ph bin ca ngn hng trung ng cc nc l tng li sut ngn hn bo v mt c ch t gi hi oi c nh.

Vy th, trn nguyn tc, vic quan st mi tng quan gia li sut ngn hn c kim sot bng chnh sch v chu k kinh t s gip ta xc nh liu chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k (li sut tng vo nhng thi k thun li v gim vo nhng thi k kh khn, hm mi tng quan dng hay ng bin), thun chu k (li sut gim vo nhng thi k thun li v tng vo nhng thi k kh khn, hm mi tng quan m hay nghch bin), hay khng theo chu k (li sut khng c s dng mt cch c h thng trong chu k kinh t, th hin khng c tng quan), nh c trnh by trong bng 3.

Bng 3. Cc ch bo tin t: Mi tng quan l thuyt vi chu k kinh t

Li sut ngn hn

T l tng trng tn dng ni a ca ngn hng trung ng

S d tin thc (M1 v M2)

Li sut thc

Nghch chu k + - +/0/- +/0/-


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Thun chu k - + + - Khng theo chu k 0 0 + -

Mi tng quan k vng vi cc bin s tin t khc th phc tp hn. Khi khng c mt chnh sch li sut ch ng, chng ta k vng s d tin thc (th hin qua tng khi tin) s cao vo nhng thi k thun li v thp vo nhng thi k kh khn (ngha l tng quan dng vi chu k kinh t) v li sut thc s thp hn vo nhng thi k thun li v cao vo nhng thi k kh khn (ngha l tng quan m vi chu k kinh t).11 Chnh sch li sut thun chu k l chnh sch gip tng cng xu hng chu k kinh t.12 Mt chnh sch li sut nghch chu k trn nguyn tc s dn n s d tin thc thp hn v li sut cao hn vo nhng thi k thun li so vi mc so snh ca chnh sch khng ch ng. Trn nguyn tc, chnh sch ngc chiu gi (leaning-against-the wind policy) ny c th hu hiu n mc lm cho mi tng quan gia s d tin thc v sn lng tr nn bng khng hoc thm ch tr nn m v mi tng quan gia li sut thc v chu k kinh t tr nn bng khng hoc thm ch tr nn dng (nh trnh by trong bng 3). Tm li v nh th hin r rng qua bng 3- ng thi chu k ca s d tin thc v li sut thc s ch mang tnh cht ch bo v tnh chu k trong mt s t trng hp:

i. Mi tng quan m hay zero gia (cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca) s d tin thc v sn lng s cho thy chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k. Trong trng hp ny, s d tin thc s gim vo nhng thi k thun li v tng vo nhng thi k kh khn. Ngc li, trn nguyn tc, mi tng quan dng ca s d tin thc v sn lng c th nht qun vi bt k quan im chnh sch tin t no.

ii. Mi tng quan dng hay zero gia (cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca) li sut thc v sn lng s cho thy chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k. Trong trng hp ny, tnh nghch chu k ca chnh sch ln n mc cc oan n ni li sut thc tng ln vo nhng thi k thun li v gim xung vo nhng thi k kh khn. Ngc li, trn nguyn tc, mi tng quan m gia li sut thc v sn lng c th nht qun vi bt k quan im chnh sch tin t no.

ng tic thay, trn thc t, thm ch nhng c s d liu ln cng thng ch cha ng thng tin v li sut qua m hay li sut rt ngn hn ca mt s rt t cc nc m thi. V th, li sut m ta quan st trn thc t l li sut di hn hn, v v th, bao gm cu phn mang tnh chu k ni sinh (v d, s thay i k vng v lm pht, ph n b thi hn, hay ph n b ri ro trong chu k). Nu t l lm pht theo hng c tng quan dng i cht vi chu k kinh t ti cc nc cng nghip v c tng quan m vi chu k kinh t ti cc nc ang pht trin, s c s thin lch hng ti kt lun cho rng chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k ti cc nc cng nghip v thun chu k ti cc nc ang pht trin. gim s thin lch ny, chng ta s chn li sut qua m hay li sut lin ngn hng bt k khi no c th.

11

Tng quan m gia li sut thc v sn lng s pht sinh trong m hnh ngun lc kinh t tiu chun (ngha l m hnh c sn lng ngoi sinh) trong li sut thc cao hin ti l tn hiu cho thy s khan him hng ho hin ti so vi tng lai. Tuy nhin, trong mt nn kinh t sn xut chu nh hng ca cc c sc cng ngh, mi quan h ny c th c du ngc li. Ngoi ra, cc c sc cu s dn n li sut thc cao hn trong nhng thi k thun li, v ngc li. ng vi nhng kh nng khc nhau ny, bt k suy lun no v quan im chu k ca chnh sch tin t rt ra t ng thi ca li sut nn c xem xt ht sc thn trng. 12

Nu, nh mt phn ca mt chnh sch tin t thun chu k, cc nh hoch nh chnh sch gim yu cu d tr bt buc, iu ny s dn n s d tin thc thm ch cn cao hn.


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Mt cng c chnh sch th hai l t l tng trng tn dng ni a ca ngn hng trung ng trong bt k c ch t gi hi oi no. L t nhin, mc nh hng ca mt s thay i tn dng ni a c th i vi c s tin, v v vy i vi li sut s ph thuc vo c ch t gi hi oi c th. Trong c ch t gi hi oi xc nh trc (c nh) v c s thay th hon ho gia ti sn ni a v ti sn nc ngoi, cch tip cn tin t i vi cn cn thanh ton cho ta bit rng s thay i tn dng ni a s c b tr chnh xc bng s thay i ngc li trong d tr. Tuy nhin, khi c s thay th khng hon ho gia ti sn trong nc v nc ngoi, s gia tng tn dng ni a s c nh hng ln c s tin. iu cng ng trong c ch t gi th ni c kim sot, v s thay i d tr s khng b tr hon ton cho s thay i tn dng ni a.

Trong bi cnh ny, mt chnh sch tin t nghch chu k s c ngha lm gim t l tng trng tn dng ni a trong thi k thun li v ngc li (ngha l tng quan m gia t l tng trng tn dng ni a v chu k kinh t). Mt chnh sch tin t thun chu k s c ngha lm tng t l tng trng tn dng ni a trong nhng thi k thun li v ngc li (ngha l tng quan dng). Mt chnh sch khng theo chu k s khng lm thay i t l tng trng tn dng mt cch h thng theo chu k kinh t.13 D nhin, s thay i tng trng tn dng ni a c th c xem l i ng vi s thay i li sut ngn hn, vi mt s gim i (tng ln) ca tng trng tn dng ni a dn n mt s tng ln (gim i) ca li sut ngn hn.

Ngoi vic tnh ton mi tng quan trnh by trong bng trn, chng ti s c gng tm hiu xem chnh sch tin t c tnh thun chu k, khng theo chu k, hay nghch chu k thng qua c lng quy tc Taylor cho tng nc m chng ti c s liu (tm c nghin cu ca Taylor (1993)). Theo Clarida, Gali v Gertler (1999), chng ti xem xt hm s c dng nh sau:

it = + 1 (t - ) + 2 yct (1)

trong it l li sut ngn hn c kim sot bng chnh sch, (t - ) l khong cch gia lm

pht thc t v trung bnh mu , v yct l h cch sn lng, c o bng cu phn mang tnh

chu k ca sn lng (ngha l sn lng thc t tr i xu hng) chia cho sn lng thc t. H

s 2 trong phng trnh (1) s biu th quan im ca chnh sch tin t theo chu k kinh t

(xem bng 4) ngoi mi quan ngi ca c quan gim st tin t v lm pht, c th hin

bng h s 1.

Bng 4. Quy tc Taylor

Bn cht ca chnh sch tin t Du k vng ca 2

Nghch chu k + v c ngha thng k Thun chu k - v c ngha thng k

Khng theo chu k Khng c ngha thng k

Ta c mt vi nhn xt v phng trnh (1). Th nht, ta gi nh rng lm pht hin ti l cng c d bo tt cho lm pht tng lai. Th hai, ta gi nh rng t l lm pht trung bnh l in hnh tt cho mc tiu lm pht ngm n hay cng khai trn c s l xt bnh qun m ngn hng trung ng s iu hnh t l lm pht theo mc tiu h mong mun. Th ba, ng vi vn tnh

13

Tuy nhin, trn thc t, s dng tn dng ni a o lng quan im chnh sch tin t phc tp hn nhiu v lm pht (c bit ti cc nc ang pht trin) c xu hng cao v bin thin. V th, t l tng trng cao khng lun lun phn nh cc chnh sch m rng. V l do ny, trong phn thc nghim chng ti s hn ch vic nghin cu trong phm vi xem xt li sut danh ngha ngn hn nh mt cng c chnh sch m thi.


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ni sinh tim tng, mi quan h th hin trong phng trnh (1) c l tt nht nn c l gii l mi quan h hp nht di hn (long-run cointegrating relationship). Th t, v c lng ca chng ti da trn s liu hng nm, nn phng trnh (1) khng tnh n kh nng c s hiu chnh dn ca li sut danh ngha v mt mc li sut mc tiu. Th nm, thng qua c lng phng trnh (1), chng ti chc chn khng c mun ni rng mi nc trong mu u tun theo cng mt loi quy tc Taylor xuyn sut mu nghin cu. ng hn, chng ti xem y l mt cch hu ch m t mi tng quan gia li sut ngn hn v h cch sn lng mt khi ta kim sot mc tiu lm pht ngm n hay cng khai ca c quan gim st tin t.

Cho n gi c v s nghin cu c lng cc quy tc Taylor, d vy, phn ln u gii hn trong phm vi cc nc pht trin. V d, i vi nc M, Nht Bn, v c, Clarida, Gali v Gertler (1997) tng thut rng trong thi k sau nm 1979, h s ca bin s lm pht ln hn 1 v c ngha thng k (cho thy rng, phn ng trc s gia tng lm pht k vng, ngn hng trung ng tng li sut danh ngha lm tng li sut thc) v h s ca h cch sn lng c gi tr dng v c ngha thng k, ngoi tr i vi nc M. Ni cch khc, v s dng thut ng trnh by trong bng 4, t nm 1979, Nht Bn v c theo ui chnh sch tin t nghch chu k (h li sut vo nhng thi k kh khn v tng li sut vo nhng thi k thun li) nhng chnh sch tin t nc M th khng theo chu k. Tuy nhin, trong thi k trc nm 1979, Cc D tr lin bang cng theo ui chnh sch tng trng nghch chu k (tm c nghin cu ca Clarida, Gertler v Gali (1999)). i vi Peru, s dng s thay i c s tin nh mt bin ph thuc v b sung thm mt s hng lin quan n s bin thin ca t gi hi oi thc so vi xu hng, Moron v Castro (2000) nhn thy rng chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k. i vi Chile, Corbo (2000) pht hin rng chnh sch tin t khng phn ng trc sn lng (ngha l khng theo chu k).

Theo t liu l thuyt, c nhng nghin cu su rng v cch thc lm th no suy ra quy tc Taylor v mt l thuyt trong bi cnh cc m hnh Keynes (v d, tm c nghin cu ca Clarida, Gertler v Gali (1999)). T liu ny s hp l ho chnh sch tin t nghch chu k trn c s s gia tng (gim st) ca h cch sn lng (ngha l sn lng thc t tr i xu hng) ku gi li sut cao hn (thp hn) gim (tng) tng cu. Chnh sch tin t khng theo chu k c th c hp l ho theo m hnh tn c in v chnh sch tin t ti u, ku gi duy tr li sut danh ngha gn bng khng (tm c nghin cu ca Chari v Kehoe (1999)). Chi ph thu thu thng thng c th gip gii thch mt cch ti u cho mc thu sut danh ngha c gi tr dng, nhng vn khng i theo chu k kinh t (tm c nghin cu ca Calvo v Vgh (1999) v cc ti liu tham kho trong ). Mt vi cu chuyn c a ra nhm gii thch chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k cp trn y cng c th c s dng gii thch chnh sch tin t thun chu k nu li sut danh ngha l mt phn ca h thng chnh sch sn c i vi nh lp k hoch Ramsey. Cch gii thch chnh sch tin t thun chu k m khng da vo chnh sch ngn sch c th bao gm nhu cu bo v ni t trong c ch t gi hi oi linh hot (Lahiri v Vgh (2004)) m trong nhng thi k kh khn s ku gi li sut cao hn nhm bo v ni t khng b mt gi thm v cc m hnh trong li sut cao hn c th mang li mt tn hiu v d nh ca cc nh hoch nh chnh sch (tm c nghin cu ca Drazen (2000)). Trong cc m hnh ny, vic xy dng tin cy vo nhng thi k kh khn c th ku gi li sut cao hn.

II.4. o lng nhng thi k thun li v kh khn

Khng phi tt c cc nn kinh t tin tin u xc nh cc im ngot ca chu k kinh t mt cch r rng nh nh ngha ca Vn phng Nghin cu kinh t quc gia (NBER) ca nc M. i vi cc nn kinh t ang pht trin, ni m s liu hng qu ca ti khon thu nhp quc gia


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trong iu kin tt nht cng ch mi gn y v thng khng c, thm ch ngi ta cn bit t hn v cc bin ng kinh t v cc im un ca chu k kinh t. V th, theo ui mc tiu nh gi quan im chu k ca cc dng vn v chnh sch kinh t v m, chng ti phi xy dng mt s tiu ch nhm phn loi tnh hnh kinh t thnh nhng thi k thun li v kh khn. S dng mt tip cn chit trung phn loi, chng ti s tin hnh theo ba k thut khc nhau: mt tip cn phi thng s v hai k thut sng lc thng c s dng trong t liu nghin cu.

Tip cn phi thng s ct yu l chia mu nghin cu ra thnh nhng thi k, trong tng trng GDP thc hng nm cao hn trung v (thi k thun li) v nhng thi k trong tng trng gim xung di mc trung v (thi k kh khn). Trung v ph hp l im ngung gii hn c tnh trn c s tng nc. Sau , chng ti tnh bin ca chu k theo cc bin s khc nhau thng qua so snh ng thi ca bin s ang xem xt vo thi k thun li v thi k kh khn. Chng ti cng lu rng, cho d tng trng di mc trung v khng nht thit l tn hiu ca s suy thoi, nhng vic gii hn nh ngha suy thoi trong phm vi ch lin quan n nhng thi k tng trng GDP m l mt nh ngha qu hp v thi k kh khn i vi nhng nc c t l tng trng dn s nhanh (chim a s trong mu nghin cu), tng trng nng sut nhanh, hay nhng nc t khi gp suy thoi theo tiu chun ca NBER. Tip cn c im hp dn l n khng s dng thng s v khng gp phi nhng vn c lng thng thng vn pht sinh khi tt c cc bin s xem xt l cc bin ni sinh tim nng.

Hai tip cn khc bao gm vic tch chui s liu theo thi gian thnh xu hng ngu nhin v cu phn mang tnh chu k thng qua s dng hai b lc ph bin: b lc Hodrick- Prescott (HP) thng gp v b lc di thng (band-pass) c trin khai trong nghin cu ca Baxter v King (1999). Sau khi tch hai chui s liu ny thnh xu hng v cu phn mang tnh chu k, chng ti bo co cc mi tng quan tng i gia cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP, dng vn vo rng, v cc ch bo ngn sch v tin t cho tng nhm trong bn nhm thu nhp. Cc mi tng quan ny c s dng thit lp s thay i ng thi cng mt lc, nhng c mt lnh vc mu m cho cc nghin cu tng lai l phn tch cc m thc nhn qu tim n v mt thi gian.

III. BC TRANH TNG QUT

Phn ny trnh by tng quan v cc s kin nh hnh kiu cch/m thc chnh m chng ti pht hin, vic phn tch chi tit hn cc kt qu s c thc hin trong cc phn tip theo.14 Mc ch ca chng ti y l so snh cc nc OECD v cc nc ang pht trin (ngha l cc nc ngoi OECD) v tng hp cc pht hin theo dng cc s kin nh hnh kiu cch/m thc chnh. Cn nhn mnh rng chng ti khng c gng xc nh cc thng s c cu nn tng hay cc c sc c th dn ti nhng s kin u n v thc nghim ny, m ch c gng tm hiu mi tng quan di dng rt gn n du trong s liu m thi. Cc pht hin ca chng ti c th c tm tt theo bn s kin nh hnh kiu cch hay m thc sau y:

S kin s 1. Cc dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k ti hu ht cc nc OECD v cc nc ang pht trin.

14

S liu ca chng ti bao gm 104 nc trong giai on 1960-2003 (ngy bt u ca tng chui s liu khc nhau gia cc nc v cc ch bo). Xem ngun s liu trong ph lc bng 1 v danh sch cc nc trong ph lc bng 2.


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iu ny c minh ho trong hnh 1, biu th mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng v GDP. Nh th hin qua biu , phn ln cc nc biu th mi tng quan dng, cho thy rng cc nc c xu hng vay mn vo nhng thi k thun li v hon tr vo nhng thi k kh khn.

S kin s 2. Chnh sch ngn sch ca cc nc OECD nhn chung hoc c tnh nghch chu k, hoc khng theo chu k. Ngc li rt r rng, chnh sch ngn sch ca cc nc ang pht trin ch yu c tnh thun chu k.

Cc hnh 2-4 minh ho s khc bit quan trng trong chnh sch ngn sch ca cc nc tin tin v cc nc ang pht trin. Hnh 2 m t mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP thc v chi tiu chnh ph thc. Nh th hin r qua biu , phn ln cc nc OECD c tng quan m trong khi phn ln cc nc ang pht trin c tng quan dng. Hnh 3 trnh by s khc bit gia thay i phn trm ca chi tiu chnh ph khi tng trng GDP trn mc trung v (thi k thun li) v khi tng trng GDP di mc trung v (thi k kh khn). th ny mang li mt s o bin ca chu k chnh sch ngn sch: nhng con s m ln cho thy rng tng trng chi tiu chnh ph thc cao hn ng k vo nhng thi k kh khn (v nh vy chnh sch rt nghch chu k), trong khi nhng con s dng ln cho thy tng trng chi tiu chi ph thc thp hn ng k vo nhng thi k kh khn (v nh vy chnh sch rt thun chu k). Trong mu ca chng ti, trng hp cc oan nht v tnh thun chu k l ng vi Liberia; nc ny, tng trng chi tiu chnh ph thc vo nhng thi k thun li cao hn 32,4 im phn trm so vi nhng thi k kh khn, trong khi nhng trng hp cc oan nht v tnh nghch chu k l Sudan v an Mch, , tng trng chi tiu chnh ph thc trong nhng thi k suy thoi thp hn 7 im phn trm. Hn na, ngoi mt chu k bin ng hn v nh Aguiar v Gopinath (2004) chng minh i vi mt s nc th trng mi ni ln hn chnh bn thn cu phn xu hng ca sn lng cng bin ng mnh, m iu ny cng th hin trong s o bin ny. Cui cng, hnh 4 trnh by mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca sn lng v thu lm pht. Mi tng quan m cho thy rng chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k v n ngm th hin rng thu sut lm pht thp hn vo nhng thi k thun li. Hnh 4 cho thy r rng hu ht cc nc OECD c tng quan dng (chnh sch nghch chu k) trong khi hu ht cc nc ang pht trin c tng quan m (chnh sch thun chu k).

S kin s 3. Chnh sch tin t ti hu ht cc nc OECD c tnh nghch chu k, trong khi chnh sch tin t ca cc nc ang pht trin phn ln c tnh thun chu k hoc khng theo chu k.

iu ny c minh ho trong hnh 5 thng qua li sut cho vay danh ngha. Kt qu cng ph hp vi cc li sut danh ngha khc (bao gm cc s o khc nhau ca li sut chnh sch), nh s c m t trong phn tip theo. Chng ti s dng li sut cho vay v n tng quan mnh vi li sut chnh sch, ng thi mc bao trm ca s liu ton din hn.

S kins 4. Ti cc nc ang pht trin, chu k dng vn v chu k chnh sch kinh t v m tng cng ln nhau (chng ti gi mi quan h ng bin ny l hin tng tri ma , nc trt).

Ni cch khc, cc chnh sch kinh t v m c tnh cht m rng khi dng vn ang chy vo v thu hp khi dng vn ang chy ra. iu ny c minh ho trong cc hnh t 6 n 8. Hnh 6 cho thy rng phn ln cc nc ang pht trin c tng quan dng gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca chi tiu chnh ph v dng vn vo rng, nhng mi tng quan ny xem ra


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khng phi l xu hng chung cho cc nc OECD. Theo cng mt mch nhn nh tng t, hnh 7 cho thy rng ti cc nc ang pht trin, tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng v thu lm pht hu ht u l tng quan m, trong khi khng c xu hng r rt ti cc nc OECD. Cui cng, hnh 8 th hin ch yu l mi tng quan m gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca dng vn vo rng v li sut cho vay danh ngha i vi cc nc ang pht trin, cho thy rng dng vn v chu k chnh sch tin t tng cng ln nhau. iu ny xem ra ngc li ti cc nc OECD.

IV. BNG CHNG THM V CHU K KINH T, CHU K DNG VN V CHU K CHNH SCH

Phn ny xem xt su xa hn bn s kin trnh by trong phn trn thng qua xem xt cc nh ngha khc nhau v chnh sch tin t v ngn sch, s dng cc phng php khc nhau xc nh cc m thc c tnh chu k trong hot ng kinh t, cc dng vn quc t, v chnh sch kinh t v m, v phn chia mu theo mt s bnh din. Ni c th ra, v nh tho lun trong phn II trn y, chng ti s s dng ba tip cn khc nhau nh ngha thi k thun li v thi k kh khn: mt tip cn phi thng s cho php chng ti nh lng bin ca cc chu k v hai k thut lc tiu chun hn: b lc Hodrick- Prescott v b lc di thng.

IV. 1 Cc dng vn

Cc bng t 5 n 7 trnh by nhng bng chng b sung v s kin s 1 (ngha l cc dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k ti hu ht cc nc OECD v cc nc ang pht trin).

Bng 5. Bin ca chu k dng vn

Dng vn vo rng/GDP

Cc nc Thi k thun li (1)

Thi k kh khn (2) Bin (1)-(2)

OECD 0,5 0,4 0,1

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao 4,4 3,0 1,4 Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp 4,2 3,0 1,2 Cc nc thu nhp thp 3,9 3,6 0,3 Ch thch: Dng vn vo rng/GDP c biu th theo t l phn trm. Thi k thun li (kh khn) c nh ngha l nhng nm m tng trng GDP cao hn (thp hn) trung v. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii.

Bng 5 cho thy t l cc dng vn vo rng trn GDP vo nhng thi k thun li c xu hng ln hn so vi nhng thi k kh khn i vi tt c cc nhm nc; iu ny biu th cc dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k (nh li bng 1 rng tng quan dng gia t l dng vn vo trn GDP v GDP thc c ngha l dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k).15 16 T l dng vn vo trn GDP trong nhng thi k kh khn gim nhiu nht cc nn kinh t thu nhp trung bnh cao (1,4 phn trm GDP). iu ny xem ra khng c g ngc nhin v ta lu rng nhm nc ny tip cn vi cc th trng vn t nhn quc t mt cch khng lin tc, mt phn do lch s v n hng lot ca h.17

15

Da vo s liu ca 33 nc ngho trong khong thi gian 25 nm, Pallage v Robe (2001) kt lun rng vin tr nc ngoi cng c tnh thun chu k; iu ny nht qun vi thng ip chung ca chng ti. 16

Chng ti cng nhn thy rng, i vi hai nhm nc thu nhp trung bnh, thm ht ti khon vng lai trong nhng thi k thun li cng ln hn so vi nhng thi k kh khn; iu ny cng nht qun vi dng vn vo c tnh thun chu k. 17

Tm c nghin cu ca Reinahrt, Rogoff v Savastano (2003).


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Xu hng ca th hng tn dng quc t nh Ch s nh u t th ch (Institutional Investor Index), cng gip ta hiu thm v s tip cn th trng vn .18 Nh tho lun trong nghin cu ca Reinhart, Rogoff v Savastano (2003), nhng th hng rt thp (cc nc thu nhp thp), xc sut v n cao cc nc hon ton b ng ca trc th trng vn t nhn quc t, trong khi th hng cao l du hiu ca s tip cn th trng khng b gin on. Cc quan st ny c xc nhn trong bng 6 v 7. Bng 6 cho thy thc cht khng c s khc bit v th hng tn dng trong thi k thun li v thi k kh khn i vi cc nn kinh t OECD giu c v cc nc thu nhp thp. S khc bit ln nht v th hng tn dng gia thi k thun li v thi k kh khn l i vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh; nhng nc ny th hng tn dng c tnh thun chu k (ngha l th hng cao vo nhng thi k thun li v th hng thp vo nhng thi k kh khn).

Bng 6. Th hng tn dng quc t

Th hng nh u t th ch

Cc nc Thi k thun li (1)

Thi k kh khn (2) Bin (1)-(2)

OECD 78,5 78,4 0,1

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao 42,2 40,4 1,8 Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp 32,9 30,8 2,1 Cc nc thu nhp thp 24,2 24,2 0,0 Ch thch: Thi k thun li (kh khn) c nh ngha l nhng nm c tng trng GDP cao hn (thp hn) trung v. Ngun: Nh u t th ch v IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii.

M thc ch U cng th hin r trong tnh bin ng ca th hng tn dng. Bng 7 trnh by s liu thng k m t c bn v tng trng v th hng nh u t th ch. Ta khng ngc nhin khi thy th hng ca cc nn kinh t OECD n nh hn nhiu (h s bin thin l 0,06) nhng s tng trng cng n nh nh th, vi h s bin thin l 0,8. Bt chp s kin sn lng bin ng nht trong nhm nn kinh t thu nhp thp (vi h s bin thin 1,6, gp hai ln ca nhm nc OECD), th hng tn dng ca nhm nc ny n nh hn nhiu so vi hai nhm nc thu nhp trung bnh (vi h s bin thin ln lt l 0,18 v 0,23).

Bng 7. Th hng tn dng v GDP thc: S liu thng k m t

Cc nc

S liu thng k OECD Thu nhp trung bnh cao

Thu nhp trung bnh thp

Thu nhp thp

Ch s nh u t c t chc: 1979-2003 H s bin thin 0,06 0,22 0,23 0,18 Trung bnh 79,9 41,5 32,0 21,8

Tng trng GDP thc: 1960-2003 H s bin thin 0,80 1,20 1,20 1,60 Trung bnh 3,90 4,90 4,70 3,30

Ngun: Nh u t th ch v IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii.

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Th hng nh u t c t chc, c bin son hai nm mt ln, da vo thng tin c cung cp bi cc nh kinh t hc v cc nh phn tch ri ro quc gia ti cc cng ty chng khon v cc ngn hng ton cu hng u. Vic xp hng ny s nh gi tng quc gia theo thang im t khng n 100; trong im 100 c chm cho nhng nc c nguy c v n thp nht i vi cc ngha v n chnh ph.


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Cui cng, bng 8 trnh by cc mi tng quan (s dng hai b lc khc nhau) gia cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP thc v cc dng vn vo rng.19 Cc mi tng quan ny l ng bin v c ngha thng k i vi tt c bn nhm nc v c hai b lc. Ta khng ngc nhin khi thy s tng quan th hin mnh nht i vi cc nc OECD v thu nhp trung bnh cao, v th hin yu nht i vi cc nc thu nhp thp. Cc kt qu ny khng nh tng l cc dng vn vo qu tht c tnh thun chu k i vi c cc nc cng nghip v cc nc ang pht trin.

Bng 8. Mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng v GDP thc

Mi tng quan

Cc nc B lc HP B lc di thng

OECD 0,30* 0,25*

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao 0,35* 0,26* Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,24* 0,20* Cc nc thu nhp thp 0,16* 0,10* Ch thch: Du sao (*) th hin ngha thng k mc 10 phn trm. Ngun: IMF, Thng k ti chnh quc t v Trin vng kinh t th gii.

IV.2. Chnh sch ngn sch

V s kins 2 (ngha l chnh sch ngn sch ti cc nc OECD ni chung hoc c tnh nghch chu k, hoc khng theo chu k, trong khi ti cc nc ang pht trin, chnh sch ngn sch ch yu c tnh thun chu k), bng 9 cho ta mt s o bin chu k chnh sch ngn sch thng qua trnh by s chnh lch gia thay i chi tiu chnh ph thc khi GDP tng trng trn mc trung v v khi GDP tng trng di mc trung v, ng vi su s o khc nhau v chi tiu chnh ph. Theo nh ngha ny, bin dng cho thy chi tiu chnh ph c tnh thun chu k. Thu lm pht cng c bao gm nh mt ch bo ngn sch cn li, vi bin m th hin mt thu sut thun chu k. Nh lp lun trong phn 2, chi tiu chnh ph v thu sut lm pht l nhng ch bo tt nht xem xt kh nng phn bit gia cc quan im khc nhau v tnh chu k ca chnh sch (nh li bng 3). Cc ch bo khc, nh s d ngn sch hay s thu thu, truyn t t thng tin hn.

Kha cnh n tng ca bng 9 l, nh th hin qua ct cui cng, bin ca chu k chi tiu ngn sch ti cc nc ngoi OECD ln ng k ng vi mi s o chi tiu ngn sch. iu ny cho thy rng, c bit vi hai nhm nc thu nhp trung bnh, chnh sch ngn sch chng nhng thun chu k, m cn thun chu k mt cch r rt. Ngc li, s liu tng ng ca cc nc OECD tng i nh, d vn c gi tr dng; xt bnh qun, iu th hin mt chnh sch ngn sch khng theo chu k.

Hn na, da vo tnh ton bin chu k chi tiu ngn sch theo tng nc lm nn tng cho bng 9 (c minh ho trong hnh 3), kt lun rng chnh sch ngn sch ca cc nc ngoi OECD c tnh thun chu k cng c xc nhn. V d, i vi chi tiu ca chnh ph trung ng thc, 94% cc nc thu nhp thp c bin dng. i vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp, con s ny l 91%. n tng hn, mi nc trong nhm nc thu nhp trung bnh cao u

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Bng 8, 10, 12, v 14 trnh by mi tng quan quc gia bnh qun cho nhm nc nu. Chng ti s dng php kim nh t xc nhn nhng ni gi tr bnh qun khc khng c ngha thng k.


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c chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k. Ngc li, vi cc nc OECD, c s chia u gia cc nc thun chu k v nghch chu k.

Bng 9. Bin ca chu k chnh sch ngn sch

Tng cc ch bo ngn sch

Cc ch bo ngn sch Thi k thun li (1)

Thi k kh khn (2)

Bin (1)-(2)

Cc nc OECD Chnh ph trung ng: Chi tiu (WEO) 3,4 3,1 0,3

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 4,2 2,8 1,4 Chi hng ho v dch v 3,0 2,0 1,0 Chi tin lng v tin cng 2,6 1,3 1,3 Ngn sch chnh ph hp nht Chi tiu (WEO) 3,6 3,2 0,4

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 4,1 3,5 0,6

Thu lm pht, /(1 + ) 4,5 5,4 -0,9

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao Chnh ph trung ng: Chi tiu (WEO) 8,1 0,0 8,1

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 9,6 -0,1 9,7 Chi hng ho v dch v 8,1 -0,3 8,4 Chi hng ho v dch v 8,3 0,4 7,9 Ngn sch chnh ph hp nht Chi tiu (WEO) 6,9 -0,1 7,0

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 7,6 1,8 5,8

Thu lm pht, /(1 + ) 10,9 13,1 -2,2

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp Chnh ph trung ng: Chi tiu (WEO) 6,7 2,7 4,0

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 9,3 3,1 6,2 Chi hng ho v dch v 9,7 3,6 6,1 Chi hng ho v dch v 8,9 4,2 4,7 Ngn sch chnh ph hp nht Chi tiu (WEO) 6,4 2,5 3,9

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 8,5 -2,1 10,6

Thu lm pht, /(1 + ) 8,7 10,1 -1,4

Cc nc thu nhp thp Chnh ph trung ng: Chi tiu (WEO) 8,3 -0,2 8,5

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li 5,0 0,5 4,5 Chi hng ho v dch v 5,1 0,6 4,5 Chi tin lng v tin cng 4,0 0,8 3,2 Ngn sch chnh ph hp nht Chi tiu (WEO) 7,3 -0,5 7,8

Chi hin hnh tr thanh ton li vay 5,7 -0,4 6,1

Thu lm pht, /(1 + ) 9,4 12,4 -3,0


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Ch thch: Tt c s liu c ly t Qu Tin t Quc t, Thng k ti chnh chnh ph tr khi c ghi ch khc. S gia tng cc ch bo chi tiu ngn sch l t l phn trm tng trng thc bnh qun hng nm. S liu thu lm pht c nhn cho 100. S gia tng thu lm pht tiu biu cho s thay i bnh qun ca ch bo ny. Thi k thun li (kh khn) c nh ngha l nhng nm c tng trng GDP trn (di) mc trung v. Ngun: IMF, Thng k ti chnh chnh ph, v Trin vng kinh t th gii (WEO).

Chuyn sang thu sut lm pht, /(1 + ), c bn nhm nc u th hin chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k. Bin ln nht l i vi nhm nc thu nhp thp (3 im phn trm) v nh nht l i vi nhm nc OECD (0,9 im phn trm).20 Ta khng ngc nhin khi thy s gia tng thu sut lm pht t cao nht trong nhng thi k suy thoi (13,1 phn trm) ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao (bao gm nhng nc lm pht cao kinh nin nh Argentina, Bazil, v Uruguay) v t thp nht ti cc nc OECD mc 5,4 phn trm.

Bng 10. Mi tng quan gia chnh sch ngn sch, GDP thc, v cc dng vn vo rng

Chnh ph trung ng Chi tiu chnh ph hp nht

Chi chnh ph hp nht tr thanh ton li

vay

Thu lm pht

Cc nc Chi tiu

Chi tiu tr thanh ton

li vay

Chi hng

ho dch v Chi tin lng v tin cng

B lc HP Tng quan vi GDP thc

OECD -0,13* -0,05 -0,06 -0,15* -0,06 -0,07 0,16*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao

0,38* 0,10 0,08 0,01 0,43* 0,10 -0,15*


0,22* 0,13 0,07 0,03 0,20* 0,12 -0,09*

Thu nhp thp 0,38* 0,24* 0,54* 0,59* 0,37* 0,17* -0,20*

Tng quan vi cc dng vn vo rng OECD 0,03 0,05 0,04 0,04 0,09 0,03 0,04


0,25* 0,22* 0,28* 0,27* 0,25* 0,20* -0,31*


0,16* 0,11 0,13 0,12 0,18* 0,13 -0,14*

Thu nhp thp 0,20* 0,05 0,20 0,37 0,24* -0,16 -0,09*

B lc di thng Tng quan vi GDP thc

OECD -0,05 -0,15* -0,11 -0,20* -0,02 -0,12 0,15*


0,53* 0,19* 0,23* 0,13 0,44* 0,23* -013*


0,29* 0,29* 0,26* 0,23* 0,23* 0,23* -0,10*

Thu nhp thp 0,46* 0,42* 0,53* 0,59* 0,34* 0,32* -0,16*

Tng quan vi dng vn vo rng OECD 0,07 0,08 0,05 0,04 0,14* 0,00 0,02


0,19* 0,12 0,28* 0,25* 0,16* 0,09 -0,25*


0,14* 0,08 0,05 0,10 0,16* 0,11 -0,10*

Thu nhp thp 0,19* 0,25* 0,27* 0,39* 0,22* 0,13 -0,07*

Ch thch: Du sao (*) biu th ngha thng k mc 10 phn trm. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii.

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Cc con s v thu sut lm pht c nhn cho 100.


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Bng 10 trnh by tng quan tng i cho cc s o chi tiu trnh by trong bng 9 cng nh cho thu sut lm pht. V mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP v chi tiu chnh ph, c im ng ch nht ca cc kt qu trnh by trong bng 10 l: i vi ba nhm nc ang pht trin, ton b 36 mi tng quan trnh by trong bng 10 (18 mi tng quan trn mt b lc) u l tng quan dng bt k s dng chui s liu chi tiu no hay loi b lc no. Ngc li, ton b 12 mi tng quan ca cc nc OECD u l tng quan m (cho d thp). iu ny khng phi mun ni rng mi quan h gia chi tiu ngn sch v chu k kinh t l mt mi quan h cc k cht ch (mt vi s liu trong bng 10 cho thy tng quan thp, khc khng v khng c ngha thng k, nht qun vi xu hng khng theo chu k nh nh ngha trong bng 2). Tuy nhin, khi ta xem xt cc kt qu ny, ta thy r rng l i vi cc nc ngoi OECD (ch t cn c theo bi tp thc nghim ny), chnh sch ngn sch dt khot l c tnh thun chu k.21

V thu lm pht, cc kt qu ng vi c hai b lc u trng nhau: mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP v thu lm pht u l tng quan dng v c ngha thng k i vi cc nc OECD (cho thy chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k), l tng quan m v c ngha thng k i vi tt c nc nhm nc ang pht trin (cho thy chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k).

Bng 10 cng trnh by bng chng v mi quan h gia cc dng vn v chnh sch ngn sch. Tin ca chng ti l: chu k dng vn c th nh hng n cc chnh sch kinh t v m ti cc nc ang pht trin, c bit ti cc nn kinh t bin ng cao, bao gm cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao. V mc ch ny, s dng hai b lc HP v di thng, chng ti trnh by cc mi tng quan ca cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca cc bin s ngn sch v dng vn vo rng. im ni bt l, tt c ngoi tr mt trong 36 mi tng quan (18 mi tng quan trn mt b lc) ca cc nc ngoi OECD u l tng quan dng, trong s c 21 mi tng quan khc khng ng k. y l bng chng r rng h tr cho tng l chu k chi tiu ngn sch quan h ng bin vi chu k dng vn vo (s kin s 4.) Bng chng ny c bit mnh i vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao (vi 10 trong s 12 mi tng quan l c ngha thng k). D nhin chng ti khng c mun rt ra suy lun v tnh nhn qu t cc mi tng quan i ny, nhng chng phi l khng hp l khi k vng rng mt mi quan h nhn qu xem ra hp l c th i t dng vn sang chi tiu ngn sch - mt vn r rng cn c tm hiu nhiu hn. Ngc nhin hn l bng chng cho thy mi quan h gia chu k chi tiu ngn sch v dng vn cng quan trng i vi cc nc thu nhp thp (phn ln nhng nc ny t c tip cn vi th trng vn quc t). Xem ra rt b ch nu ta tm hiu xem th kt qu ny l nh mi quan h gia cc chu k trong gi hng ho v chi tiu chnh ph n mc no.22 Ngc hn vi cc nc ang pht trin, cc mi tng quan ca cc nc OECD khng bao gi c ngha thng k v khc khng , ngoi tr mt ngoi l; iu ny cho thy khng c quan h g gia chu k dng vn v chi tiu ngn sch.

Bng 10 cng cho thy rng thu lm pht c ngha thng k v tng quan m vi chu k dng vn i vi tt c cc nc ang pht trin (v c hai b lc). Phng on ca chng ti l: thu lm pht mang li mt hnh thc ti tr khc khi tnh hnh th trng vn xu i. i vi cc nc OECD, mi tng quan ny khng c ngha thng k v khc khng.

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V vic tnh ton theo tng nc lm c s cho bng 10, ta cng nn lu rng, v d nh i vi chi tiu chnh ph trung ng thc, 91% cc mi tng quan ti cc nc ang pht trin l tng quan dng (cho thy chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k), trong khi 65% cc mi tng quan ti cc nc OECD l tng quan m (cho thy chnh sch ngn sch nghch chu k), nh c minh ho trong hnh 2. 22

V lnh vc ny, tm c nghin cu ca Cuddington (1989).


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IV.3. Chnh sch tin t

chng minh qua t liu s kin s 3 (ngha l chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k ti hu ht cc nc OECD trong khi phn ln c tnh thun chu k ti cc nc ang pht trin), chng ti thc hin cng nhng cng vic nh i vi cc ch bo ngn sch, nhng ngoi ra, chng ti cng c lng cc bin th ca quy tc Taylor, nh m t trong phn II.

Bng 11 trnh by cng mt bi tp thc nghim nh thc hin trong bng 9 ng vi nm chui li sut danh ngha s dng trong nghin cu ny. Nh tho lun trong phn II, mt cng c chnh sch ngn hn, nh li sut lin ngn hng (hoc mt s nc l li sut tn phiu kho bc hay sut chit khu), l ch bo tt nht v quan im chnh sch tin t. Trong trng hp ny, bin m c ngha l chnh sch tin t thun chu k. S khc nhau gia cc nc OECD v cc nhm nc khc tht l n tng. i vi cc nc OECD, li sut gim vo nhng thi k suy thoi v tng vo nhng thi k m rng (v d, li sut lin ngn hng gim bnh qun 0,7 phn trm hay 70 im c bn trong nhng thi k suy thoi). Ngc hn li, cc nc ngoi OECD, phn ln li sut danh ngha gim vo nhng thi k m rng v tng vo nhng thi k suy thoi (v d, li sut lin ngn hng ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao tng thm 2,3 phn trm hay 230 im c bn vo nhng thi k suy thoi). Nh vy, xu hng ca cc nc ngoi OECD nhn chung cho thy chnh sch tin t thun chu k.23

Bng 12 trnh by cc mi tng quan gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP thc, cc dng vn vo, v nm mc li sut danh ngha trong bng trn. V quan im chu k ca chnh sch tin t, bng chng xem ra thuyt phc nht i vi cc nc OECD (chnh sch tin t nghch chu k), trong , ton b 10 mi tng quan u l tng quan dng v c 7 mi tng quan c ngha thng k. Cng c bng chng v chnh sch tin t thun chu k ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao (ton b 10 mi tng quan u l tng quan m v c 4 mi tng quan c ngha thng k). i vi hai nhm nc cn li, bng chng c tnh cht ln ln hn; y tnh trng thiu ngha thng k phn nh s kin l chui s liu li sut c thi gian ngn hn.24

Chuyn sang cc mi tng quan gia cc dng vn vo rng v li sut trong bng 12, mt ln na, bng chng cng mnh nht i vi cc nc OECD (vi ton b 10 mi tng quan u l tng quan dng c ngha thng k), r rng cho thy li sut cao hn gn lin vi dng vn vo. i vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao, 8 trong s 10 mi tng quan l tng quan m nhng khng c ngha thng k v khc khng (mt ln na, chui s liu thi gian ngn li l mt nhc im quan trng). Tuy nhin, chng ta chp nhn iu ny nh mt bng chng gi v hi chng tri ma, nc trt.

Bng 11. Bin ca chu k chnh sch tin t

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Ph lc bng 3 v 4 trnh by cc kt qu tng t vi cc kt qu trong bng 11 cho li sut thc v bin s tng tin t thc. Ni khi qut, li sut thc ca cc nc OECD c tng quan dng vi chu k (ngha l li sut thc nhn chung tng vo nhng thi k thun li v gim vo nhng thi k kh khn). Trn nguyn tc, iu ny nht qun vi chnh sch tin t nghch chu k (nh li bng 3). Ngc li, vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao v trung bnh thp, li sut thc xem ra c tng quan m vi chu k. Cc kt qu ny nht qun vi kt qu ca Neumeyer v Perri (2004). Cc kt qu ca cc nc thu nhp thp kh l gii hn v chng tng t hn vi cc nc OECD. Cc kt qu ca s d tin thc trong ph lc bng 4 ph hp vi cc kt qu trc y ca chng ti: vo nhng thi k thun li, s d tin thc tng nhiu hn so vi trong nhng thi k kh khn. Tuy nhin, tng quan dng ny khng cho php chng ta rt ra bt k d on g v quan im ca chnh sch tin t (nh li bng 3). 24

iu quan trng cn cnh bo c gi l s liu v li sut ca cc nc ngoi OECD th khng ng nht v tng i khng hon chnh. V th, cc kt qu ca chng ti nn c l gii mt cch thn trng v ch c tnh cht gi .


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Tng li sut danh ngha

Cc ch bo ngn sch Thi k tt p (1)

Thi k kh khn (2)

Bin (1)-(2)

Cc nc OECD Li sut lin ngn hng 0,3 -0,7 1,0 Li sut tn phiu kho bc 0,2 -0,4 0,6 Sut chit khu 0,5 -0,5 1,0 Li sut cho vay 0,0 -0,3 0,3 Li sut tin gi 0,1 -0,3 0,4

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao Li sut lin ngn hng* -2,2 2,3 -4,5 Li sut tn phiu kho bc -2,6 -1,5 -1,1 Sut chit khu -1,5 2,7 -4,2 Li sut cho vay -4,0 2,1 -6,1 Li sut tin gi* 0,7 1,0 -0,3

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp Li sut lin ngn hng -0,8 -0,1 -0,7 Li sut tn phiu kho bc -0,7 1,1 -1,8 Sut chit khu 0,5 0,5 0,0 Li sut cho vay -1,0 0,4 -1,4 Li sut tin gi -0,5 -0,5 0,0

Cc nc thu nhp thp Li sut lin ngn hng -1,3 1,5 -2,8 Li sut tn phiu kho bc -1,0 0,5 -1,5 Sut chit khu -0,8 0,2 -1,0 Li sut cho vay -4,7 0,2 -4,9 Li sut tin gi -1,6 0,2 -1,8 Ch thch: Tng li sut c xc nh theo s thay i bnh qun hng nm ca li sut (vi li sut c biu th bng im phn trm). Thi k thun li (kh khn) c nh ngha l nhng nm c tng trng GDP trn (di) mc trung v. * Trung v c bo co thay cho gi tr bnh qun, v gi tr bnh qun b bin dng bi mt hay nhiu thi k lm pht rt cao (hay siu lm pht). Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii v Thng k ti chnh quc t.

ng vi nhng kh khn rt hin nhin (thm ch i vi nhng nc tin tin nh Hoa K) trong vic m t bng thc nghim quan im chnh sch tin t, chng ti thc hin mt cng vic b sung kim tra mnh cho tt c cc nhm nc. Mt cch c th, chng ti c lng quy tc Taylor nu trong phn II. Bng 13 trnh by cc kt qu cho ba mc li sut danh ngha m t nht trn nguyn tc, cng ng vai tr nh cc cng c chnh sch (li sut lin ngn hng, li sut tn phiu kho bc, v sut chit khu). Hy nh li rng chnh sch nghch chu k i hi phi c B2 dng v c ngha thng k, cc kt qu chnh nh sau.

25 Th nht,

chnh sch tin t ti cc nc OECD xem ra c tnh nghch chu k (th hin qua h s dng v c ngha thng k ca hai trong ba yu t). Th hai, c bng chng v tnh thun chu k ca chnh sch tin t ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh (th hin qua h s m v c ngha thng k i vi cc php hi qui li sut tn phiu kho bc). Nh vy, thng ip chung ny nht qun vi kt qu ca bng 11 v 12.

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Ngoi ra, lu rng h s ca h cch lm pht lun lun dng v c ngha thng k.


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Bng 12. Cc mi tng quan gia chnh sch tin t, GDP thc, v cc dng vn vo rng

Li sut danh ngha

Cc nc Lin ngn hng

Tn phiu kho bc

Chit khu

Cho vay Tin gi

B lc HP Tng quan vi GDP thc

OECD 0,28* 0,39* 0,37* 0,23* 0,21*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao -0,24* -0,09 -0,02 -0,24* -0,21* Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,02 0,00 0,04 0,07 0,01 Thu nhp thp -0,12 -0,02 0,04 -0,02 -0,10

Tng quan vi dng vn vo rng OECD 0,14* 0,25* 0,20* 0,19* 0,11*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao -0,11 -0,24 0,11 -0,13 -0,09 Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,04 0,03 0,07 0,05 0,00 Thu nhp thp 0,01 0,06 0,03 -0,11 0,05

B lc di thng Tng quan vi GDP thc

OECD 0,12 0,13* 0,23* 0,01 0,06

Thu nhp trung bnh cao -0,23 -0,14 -0,10 -0,10 -0,13* Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,19* 0,00 -0,03 0,03 -0,03 Thu nhp thp -0,09 -0,04 -0,07 -0,07 -0,08

Tng quan vi dng vn vo rng OECD 0,16* 0,28* 0,19* 0,16* 0,13*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao -0,05 -0,17 0,08 -0,18 -0,11 Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,30* -0,03 0,11 0,00 -0,07 Thu nhp thp 0,12 0,07 0,02 -0,11 0,04 Ch thch: Du sao (*) biu th ngha thng k mc 10 phn trm. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii, v Thng k ti chnh quc t.


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Bng 13. Quy tc Taylor

Hi qui it = + 1 (t ) + 1yct + ut

it = Li sut ngn hn. nh ngha li sut c cho di y.

t = T l lm pht tr i trung bnh mu. y

ct = Cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP thc (b lc HP) chia cho sn lng thc t.

Bin ph thuc (s quan st)

1 2 R2

Cc nc OECD Li sut lin ngn hng (663) 0,56* 0,02 0,27 Li sut tn phiu kho bc (503) 0,60* 0,12* 0,39 Sut chit khu (758) 0,49* 0,15* 0,25

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao Li sut lin ngn hng (187) 4,84* -0,31 0,48 Li sut tn phiu kho bc (152) 0,32* -0,12* 0,04 Sut chit khu (413) 0,43* -0,11 0,01

Cc nc thu nhp trung bnh thp Li sut lin ngn hng (250) 0,81* -0,19 0,34 Li sut tn phiu kho bc (218) 0,44* -0,27* 0,11 Sut chit khu (686) 1,21* 0,26 0,42

Cc nc thu nhp thp Li sut lin ngn hng (282) 0,38* 0,18* 0,09 Li sut tn phiu kho bc (258) 0,29* 0,11 0,17 Sut chit khu (951) 6,03* 1,59 0,22 Ch thch: Cc phng trnh c c lng bng s liu nhm vi hiu ng c nh. Du sao (*) biu th ngha thng k mc 10 phn trm. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii, v Thng k ti chnh quc t.

IV.4. Cc c ch t gi hi oi, hi nhp th trng vn, v cc cuc khng hong

Trong phn ny, chng ti chia mu ra theo ba bnh din khc nhau nhm nh gi xem cc kt qu ca chng ti c b hay khng b nh hng bi kh nng lu chuyn vn trn th trng th gii, c ch t gi hi oi hin ti, v s hin din ca cc cuc khng hong. Trc tin, xem th s hi nhp th trng vn gia tng trong qu kh gn y c nh hng n xu hng chu k ca cc bin s hay khng, chng ti chia mu ra lm hai giai on (1960-1979 v 1980-2003) v thc hin tt c cc cng vic thc nghim va m t trn y trong phn ny. K n, chng ti chia mu ra theo s o v tnh linh hot ca t gi hi oi trn thc t. Cui cng, chng ti chia mu ra thnh cc thi k thanh bnh v thi k khng hong tin t. iu ny gip chng ti khng nh liu cc kt qu v tnh thun chu k c chu nh hng mc no bi cc tnh hung khng hong cc oan hn khng. Cc kt qu cho tng phn ny c trnh by trong bng 14 v s c tho lun ln lt.26

a. Giai on 1960-1979 so vi giai on 1980-2003

Bn kt qu chnh t c khi ta chia mu ra hai giai on 1960-1979 v 1980-2003 nh sau. Th nht, mt cch nht qun cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao, cc dng vn c tnh thun chu k trong c hai giai on, vi mi tng quan tng ln trong giai on sau. Th hai, quan im chu k ca chi tiu chnh ph xem ra khng thay i gia hai giai on cc nc ngoi

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tit kim ch, bng 14 ch trnh by cc kt qu cho mt s o chi tiu chnh ph v mt loi li sut s dng b lc HP m thi. Cc kt qu cn li c th c cung cp khi c yu cu.


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OECD (ngha l chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k trong c hai giai on) nhng cc nc OECD xem ra khng theo chu k trong giai on trc 1980 v chuyn sang nghch chu k trong giai on sau nm 1980. Th ba, thu lm pht xem ra khng theo chu k trong giai on trc 1980 v chuyn sang nghch chu k r rt i vi cc nc OECD v thun chu k i vi cc nhm cn li sau nm 1980. Th t, chnh sch tin t xem ra chuyn t tnh cht khng theo chu k sang nghch chu k vi cc nc OECD. Do thiu s liu v cc nc ang pht trin nn ta khng so snh c vi giai on trc.

Bng 14. Cc c im v chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng, chnh sch ngn sch v chnh sch tin t Tng quan vi GDP thc

Dng vn vo rng Chnh sch ngn sch Chnh sch tin t

Cc nc Chi ngn sch trung ng

Thu lm pht Li sut cho vay

Trc 1980 Sau 1980 Trc 1980 Sau 1980 Trc 1980 Sau 1980 Trc 1980 Sau 1980 OECD Kcsl 0,38* -0,19 -0,14* 0,11 0,22* 0,04 0,25*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao 0,25* 0,38* 0,43* 0,33* -0,04 -0,16* Kcsl -0,23* Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,28* 0,26* 0,39* 0,19* -0,01 -0,12* Kcsl 0,03 Thu nhp thp 0,20* 0,17* 0,43* 0,38* -0,08 -0,23* Kcsl 0,03

C nh Linh hot C nh Linh hot C nh Linh hot C nh Linh hot OECD 0,35* 0,40* -0,09 -0,19 0,11 0,26* 0,13 0,38*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao 0,39* 0,35* 0,39* 0,22* -0,15* -0,26* -0,12 -0,06 Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,21* 0,34* 0,24* 0,31* 0,04 -0,15* 0,06 0,29* Thu nhp thp 0,27* 0,20* 0,40* 0,28* -0,13* -0,21* -0,01 0,01

Kh. hong Th. bnh Kh. hong Th. bnh Kh. hong Th. bnh Kh. hong Th. bnh OECD Kcsl 0,37* Kcsl -0,13* Kcsl 0,17* Kcsl 0,23*

Thu nhp trung bnh cao 0,56* 0,36* 0,38* 0,41* -0,41* -0,14* Kcsl -0,22* Thu nhp trung bnh thp 0,57* 0,28* 0,05 0,24* -0,15 -0,06* Kcsl 0,08 Thu nhp thp 0,14 0,14* 0,30* 0,32* -0,09 -0,09* Kcsl -0,06

Ch thch: Tt c cc mi tng quan c tnh thng qua s dng b lc HP. Trc 1980: Bao gm cc quan st t nm 1960 n 1979. Sau 1980: Bao gm cc quan st t nm 1980 n 2003. C nh: Bao gm nhng nm c c ch t gi hi oi c nh v c nh c iu chnh. Linh hot: Bao gm nhng nm c c ch th ni c qun l v th ni t do. Khng hong: Bao gm nhng nm c t l mt gi ng tin hng thng 25 phn trm hay cao hn m t nht cng cao hn 10 phn trm so vi t l mt gi ca thng trc cng nh hai nm sau ph gi. Thanh bnh: Bao gm nhng nm khng c xc nh l nm khng hong. Du sao (*) biu th ngha thng k mc 10 phn trm. Kcsl: Khng c s liu. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh t th gii v Thng k ti chnh quc t.

b. C ch t gi hi oi c nh so vi th ni

Trong cch chia mu th hai, chng ti nh gi xem xu hng chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng v chnh sch kinh t v m c khc nhau theo cc c ch t gi hi oi (theo nh ngha rng) hay khng. xc nh nh hng ny, chng ti chia mu thnh ba nhm (mt dng th s hn ca cch phn loi theo 5 loi thc t ca Reinhart v Rogoff, 2004). Nhm t gi hi oi c nh bao gm cc c ch t gi 1 v 2 (c nh v c nh c iu chnh- pegs and crawling pegs) trong 5 phn loi loi va nu. Nhm t gi hi oi linh hot bao gm loi c ch 3 (th ni c qun l-managed floating) v 4 (th ni t do-freely floating). C ch ri t do-freely falling trong phn loi Reinhart v Rogoff (loi 5) c tch ring ra khi phn tch ny.


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Cc kt qu chnh ca phn tch ny nh sau. Th nht, khng c s khc bit r v tng quan gia cc dng vn vo rng v chu k GDP thc gia hai nhm c ch t gi. Th hai, ta cng khng tm thy khc bit i vi chi tiu chnh ph. Th ba, thu lm pht xem ra c tnh nghch chu k hn vi cc nc OECD v c tnh thun chu k hn vi cc nc ngoi OECD trong c ch t gi linh hot. Cui cng, chnh sch tin t c tnh nghch chu k hn i vi nhm nc OECD trong c ch t gi linh hot.

c. Thi k khng hong so vi thi k thanh bnh

Chng ti nh ngha thi k khng hong tin t l thi k t l mt gi ng tin hng thng 25% hay cao hn m t nht cng cao hn 10% so vi t l mt gi thng trc. Nhng nm ny (cng nh hai nm tip theo khng hong) c xem xt tch ring so vi thi k thanh bnh. tng l kim tra xem cc kt qu chnh ca chng ti c b nh hng bi khng hong hay khng. Bng 14 cho thy rng iu ny dt khot l khng. Qu tht, cc kt qu xem ra vn nh th - nu khng mnh hn trong nhng thi k thanh bnh. V th, chng ti kt lun rng thng ip ca bi vit ny khng ph thuc vo vic c nhng thi k khng hong trong mu nghin cu ca chng ti.

V. NHN XT C KT

Chng ti nghin cu cc thuc tnh chu k ca cc dng vn vo, chnh sch tin t v chnh sch ngn sch cho 104 nc trong giai on 1960-2003. Cn phi tin hnh nhiu nghin cu hn hiu r hn v nhng mi lin kt gia chu k kinh t, cc dng vn vo v cc chnh sch kinh t v m, c th l gia cc nhm nc khc nhau v cc tnh hung khc nhau (v c bit l trong s hn ch v s liu ca a phng). Vi nhng cn nhc ny, cc pht hin ca chng ti c th c tm tt nh sau:

i) Cc dng vn vo rng c tnh thun chu k ti phn ln cc nc OECD v cc nc ang pht trin.

ii) Chnh sch ngn sch c tnh thun chu k i vi hu ht cc nc ang pht trin v c bit r rt ti cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao.

iii) Cho d vn cn ht sc s b, chng ti tm thy bng chng v tnh thun chu k ca chnh sch tin t ti cc nc ang pht trin, c bit l cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao. Cng c bng chng v chnh sch tin t nghch chu k i vi cc nc OECD.

iv) i vi cc nc ang pht trin, v c bit i vi cc nc thu nhp trung bnh cao, chu k dng vn v chu k kinh t v m tng cng ln nhau (hi chng tri ma, nc trt).

Nhn t gc chnh sch, ngha ca cc pht hin ny xem ra c tm quan trng thc tin to ln. Trong khi chnh sch kinh t v m ti cc nc OECD xem ra hu ht u nhm mc tiu bnh n chu k kinh t (hay t nht cng c tnh cht trung tnh), cc chnh sch kinh t v m ti cc nc ang pht trin xem ra li cng tng cng hn na chu k kinh t, khin cho nhng ngy nng nng cng tr nn thiu t hn, v nhng ngy ma li cng ly li hn (tri ma, nc trt). Tuy c th c nhiu s c xt gip gii thch cho hin tng ny (v d nh s bin dng chnh tr, th ch yu km, v tnh trng khng hon ho ca th trng vn), kt lun


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khng th trnh khi l: cc nc ang pht trin, v c bit l cc nn kinh t th trng mi ni, cn tm nhng c ch gip cho cc chnh sch v m c thc hin mt cch trung tnh hay c tnh bnh n chu k kinh t hn. Tht ra, c nhng bng chng cho thy cc th trng mi ni c ting l bit hoch nh chnh sch mt cch kho lo (ta nh ngay ra trng hp Chile) c th dn dn kt thc nhng chnh sch thun chu k v chuyn sang thc hin cc chnh sch ngn sch trung tnh hoc nghch chu k (tm c nghin cu ca Calderon v Schmidt- Hebbel (2003)).

Trong trng hp c th ca Chile, vic ban hnh cc lut ngn sch c thit k c bit khuyn khch tit kim chnh ph vo nhng thi k thun li xem ra c ch trong n lc ny. Cui cng, cng ng nhn mnh rng mc tiu thc nghim ca chng ti ct ch tnh ton cc mi tng quan dng rt gn (trn tinh thn t liu chu k kinh t thc) v khng phi l xc nh cc quy tc chnh sch hay thng s c cu. Cc kiu ma st m ngi ta cn a vo cc m hnh cn bng tng th nhm gii thch hi chng tri ma, nc trt c xc nhn qua nghin cu ny s l ch ca nhng nghin cu su xa hn. Tm li, chng ti hy vng rng nhng im hp thc v mt thc nghim nhn thy trong bi vit ny s thi thc cc nh l thuyt xem xt li nhng m hnh hin ti m c th khng cn ph hp vi s kin thc t, v thi thc cc nh thc hnh xem xt li s liu bng nhng k thut tinh xo hn.

Ti liu tham kho Aghion, Phillipe, Philippe Bacchetta and Abhijit Banerjee, Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints, European Economic Review, Vol. 45 (2001), pp. 1121-1150.

Aizenman, Joshua, Michael Gavin, and Ricardo Hausmann, Optimal Tax Policy with Endogenous

Borrowing Constraints, NBER Working Paper No. 5558 (1996).

Aguiar, Mark, and Gita Gopinath, Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend, mimeo (University of Chicago, 2004).

Baxter, Marianne, and Robert G. King. Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series. Review of Economics and Statistics 81 (1999): 57593. Braun, Miguel, Why Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Countries (mimeo, Harvard University, 2001).

Calderon, Cesar and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Macroeconomic Policies and Performance in Latin America, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 22 (2003), pp. 895-923. Calvo, Guillermo A. On the Costs of Temporary Policy, Journal of Development Economics,

Vol. 27 (1987), pp. 245-262.

Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, and Carmen M. Reinhart, Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 40 (1993), pp. 108-151.

Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, and Carmen M. Reinhart, The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. XII (1994), pp. 54-66. Calvo, Guillermo A. and Carlos A. Vgh, Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing

Countries in John Taylor and Michael Woodford, eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics (Volume

C; North Holland, 1999), pp. 1531-1614.

Chari, V.V. and Patrick Kehoe, Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, NBER Working Papers No. 6891 (1999).

Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler, Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence, NBER Working Paper No. 6254 (1997). Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler, The Science of Monetary Policy; A New Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37 (1999), pp. 1161-1707. Corbo, Vittorio, Monetary Policy in Latin America in the 90s, Central Bank of Chile Working Paper No. 78 (2000).

Cuddington, John, Commodity Export Booms in Developing Countries The World Bank Research


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Observer, Vol. 4, No. 2, July 1989, 143-165.

Dixon, Jay, Voracity, Volatility, and Growth (mimeo, UCLA, 2003). Drazen, Alan, Interest Rate and Borrowing Defense Against Speculative Attack, Carnegie- Rochester Series on Public Policy, Vol. 53 (2000).

Flood, Robert P. and Olivier Jeanne, An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate? IMF Working Paper No. 00/159 (2000).

Gavin, Michael, and Roberto Perotti, Fiscal Policy in Latin America, NBER Macroeconomics Annual (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), pp. 11-61.

Gupta, Sanjeev, Benedict Clements, Bernardin Akitoby, and Gabriela Inchauste, The Cyclicality of Government Spending in Developing Countries (mimeo, IMF, 2004). Lahiri, Amartya and Carlos A. Vgh, Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and BOP Crises, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 111 (2003), pp. 404-424.

Lahiri, Amartya and Carlos A. Vgh, On the Non-Monotonic Relation between Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate, mimeo (New York Fed and UCLA, 2004). Lane, Philip, The Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 87 (2003a), pp. 2661-2675.

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Lane, Philip and Aaron Tornell, Why Aren t Latin American Savings Rates Procyclical? Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57 (1998), pp. 185-200.

Moron, Eduardo and Juan Francisco Castro, 2000, Uncovering Central Banks Monetary Policy Objective: Going Beyond the Fear of Floating, (mimeo, Universidad del Pacifico). Neumeyer, Pablo A., and Fabrizio Perri, Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates, NBER Working Paper No. 10837 (2004). Pallage, Stephane, and Michel A. Robe, Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle, Review of International Economics, Vol. 9 (2001), pp. 637-668.

Phelps, Edmund (1973), Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance, Swedish Journal of Economics, Vol. (75), pp. 67-82.

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1-74.

Riascos, Alvaro and Carlos A. Vgh, Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: The Role of Incomplete Markets (mimeo, UCLA and Banco Republica, Colombia, 2003). Talvi, Ernesto, and Carlos A. Vgh, Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy, NBER Working Paper No. 7499 (2000), forthcoming Journal of Development Economics.

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pp. 22-46.

World Bank, various issues. Global Development Finance. (Washington DC: The World Bank).


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PH LC: CH S V TNH CHU K CA CHNH SCH NGN SCH

Bi vit ny tm hiu v thuc tnh chu k ca nhiu ch bo chnh sch ngn sch. By gi chng ta xy dng mt s o tm tt v cc thuc tnh chu k ca chnh sch ngn sch. Ch s tng hp ny c th c s dng xp hng cc nc theo quan im chnh sch ca tng nc v trong cc nghin cu thc nghim tng lai, c th gip gii thch s bin thin gia cc nc thng qua s dng nhiu bin s kinh t, chnh tr, v th ch. Tuy vic chn lc cc cu phn ca ch s tng hp v trng s ca tng cu phn nht thit s mang tnh tu , cc ch bo c chn trn c s l s gip ta nhn thc r rng v quan im chu k ca chnh sch. Ch s chnh sch ngn sch tng hp c k hiu l cf v c xy dng nh sau (xem ph lc bng 5):

cf = 0,40 g + 0,40 Percentile {ag bg} 0,20

trong g l tng quan (HP) gia cc cu phn mang tnh chu k ca GDP thc v chi tiu ca chnh ph trung ng, ag l tng trng bnh qun ca chi tiu chnh ph trung ng khi GDP trn mc trung v, bg l tng trng bnh qun ca chi tiu chnh ph trung ng khi GDP

di mc trung v (nh trnh by trong bng 9), v l tng quan (HP) gia GDP thc v thu

lm pht, /(1 + ) (nh trnh by trong bng 9). Nh vy, ag bg cho ta mt s o v bin ca chu k chi tiu ngn sch m cc mi tng quan khng bc l ra. chun ho s o bin ny sao cho n nm trong khong t -1 n +1 v c cng n v nh cc mi tng quan chng ti phn phi cc quan st gi tr dng v gi tr m vo cc nhm s thp phn (percentile) ri sau gn gi tr bng s thp phn ny cho t nc ang quan st. V d, nh th hin qua ph lc bng 5, Argentina c bin 5,35 im phn trm (ngha l t l tng trng chi tiu chnh ph vo thi k tt p cao hn 5,35 im phn trm so vi trong thi k kh khn). Quan st ny tng ng nhm th 17 trong tt c cc quan st c gi tr dng. V th, chng ti gn cho Argentina gi tr 0,17.

Hai cu phn u tin c cho mt trng s cao hn (0,40) trong ch s tng hp, v nhiu nc trong mu nghin cu ca chng ti (gm cc nc pht trin v ang pht trin) khng da nhiu vo thu lm pht, cho nn thu lm pht ch c gn trng s 0,20. V th, mi cu phn ca ch s cf c gii hn trong cc gi tr t -1 n +1, trong +1 l thun chu k nhiu nht v -1 l nghch chu k nhiu nht.


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Hnh 1. Cc mi tng quan quc gia gia cu phn mang tnh chu k ca cc dng vn vo rng v GDP thc, 1960-2003.

Ch thch: Cc thanh m mu l cc nc OECD v cc thanh sng mu l cc nc ngoi OECD. Cc cu phn mang tnh chu k c c lng thng qua s dng b lc Hodrick Prescott (HP). Tng quan dng biu th dng vn thun chu k. Ngun: IMF. Trin vng kinh

t th gii.


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Hnh 2. Cc mi tng quan quc gia gia cu phn mang tnh chu k ca chi tiu chnh ph thc v GDP thc, 1960-2003.

Ch thch: Cc thanh m mu l cc nc OECD v cc thanh sng mu l cc nc ngoi OECD. Cc cu phn mang tnh chu k c c lng thng qua s dng b lc Hodrick Prescott (HP). Tng quan dng biu th chnh sch ngn sch thun chu k. Chi tiu chnh ph thc c nh ngha l chi tiu ca chnh ph trung ng, c gim pht theo h s gim pht GDP. Ngun: IMF, Trin vng kinh

t th gii.


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Ch thch: Cc thanh m mu l cc nc OECD v cc thanh sng mu l cc nc ngoi OECD. Cc cu phn mang tnh chu k c c lng thng qua s dng b lc Hodrick Prescott (HP). Bin ca chu k chnh sch ngn sch c biu th bng chnh lch (tnh bng im phn trm) gia tng trng chi tiu chnh

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