bae urban economics

BAE Qualifications Development Advisory and Impacts

2017

bae urban economics

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www.bae1.com

Table of Contents

ABOUT BAE ................................................................................................................................... 1

BAE AWARDS FOR EXCELLENCE.................................................................................................. 2

DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY SERVICES ......................................................................................... 3

METRO Joint Development Advisory Services .................................................................... 3 Port of San Francisco Real Estate Development Advisory Services ................................. 4 Fillmore Heritage Center Mixed-Use Project ....................................................................... 6 Hotel Vitale Development Advisory Services ...................................................................... 7 Santa Clara County Civic Center: Feasibility & Development Advisory Services .............. 8 NASA Research Park P3 Development Advisory Services ................................................. 9 Long Beach Civic Center Development Advisory Services .............................................. 10 Fort Monroe Development Advisory Services .................................................................. 11 Baltimore State Center TOD Project Development Advisory Services ........................... 12 Charlotte Strawn Site Development Advisory Services ................................................... 13 Pier 40 Reuse Study & Developer Solicitation ................................................................ 14 Menlo Park Economic and Real Estate Development Services ..................................... 15 Presidio of San Francisco Development Advisory Services ............................................ 16 Jekyll Island Real Estate Development Advisory Services .............................................. 17 Sacramento Railyards Financial Analysis for P3 ............................................................. 18 Mare Island Development Advisory Services & EDC ....................................................... 19 P3 Financial Analysis for City of San Diego Redevelopment Agency ............................. 20 San Diego Financial Analysis and Project Review ........................................................... 21

FINANCING, OPERATIONS, AND IMPACTS ................................................................................. 22

Funding Strategy for San Francisco Segment of Caltrain Electrification ....................... 22 Beverly Hills Parking In-Lieu Fee Study ............................................................................ 23 San Francisco Capital Projects: Streamlining the Approvals Process ........................... 24 Alcatraz Embarkation Long-Term Lease Negotiation Support ........................................ 25 Business Planning for NTC Promenade Arts District at Liberty Station ......................... 26 Fire District Impact Fee Programs for Yolo County.......................................................... 27 NASA Research Park Economic Benefits Study .............................................................. 28 Economic Impacts of Port of San Francisco Maritime & Industrial Uses ...................... 29 Impacts of Big Box Retail Stores on Community Retail .................................................. 30 Downtown Columbia MD Economic Benefits Analysis .................................................... 31 Economic Impacts of Johns Hopkins University and Health Systems ........................... 32 Menlo Park Gateway Fiscal Impact Analysis ................................................................... 33 UCSC Contributions to the Santa Cruz Economy ............................................................. 34 Economic Impacts of University of San Francisco .......................................................... 35 Economic Benefits of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) ................................................ 36

OUR STAFF.................................................................................................................................. 37

Matt Kowta, MCP, Managing Principal .................................................................................... 37 David Shiver, MBA, MCP, Principal .......................................................................................... 38 Sherry Rudnak, MA, LEED-AP, Principal ................................................................................... 39 Ray Kennedy, MA, Director of Research .................................................................................. 40 Aaron Nousaine, MCRP, Vice President ................................................................................... 41 Stephanie Hagar, MCP, Vice President .................................................................................... 42 Josh Rohmer, MPL, Vice President .......................................................................................... 43 Jessica Hitchcock, MCP, Vice President .................................................................................. 44 Aaron Barker, MPL, Associate .................................................................................................. 45 Chelsea Guerrero, MCP, Associate .......................................................................................... 45 Amanda Wallace, MUP, Associate ............................................................................................ 46 Matt Fairris, Analyst .................................................................................................................. 46 Denim Ohmit, Analyst ................................................................................................................ 47

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About BAE BAE Urban Economics is an award-winning urban economics and public-benefit real estate development consulting practice. Since 1986, we have served more than 2,000 clients including public agencies, non-profit organizations, and private developers throughout the US. All of our work is led by seasoned experts, who are responsible for project direction and internal quality control. BAE’s experience ranges from statewide policy studies, to strategic plans, to development projects. Our services include feasibility studies, strategic planning, revitalization, public-private transactions, public financing, fiscal and economic impacts analyses, and development advisory services. We have extensive work experience in:

• Sustainable Development and TOD • Economic Development • Affordable and Workforce Housing • Parks and Community Facilities • Public-Private Transactions • Financing and Operations • Impacts Analysis

BAE’s passion about the “triple bottom line” of sustainable economics, equity, and environment makes us unique among urban economists. We believe that there are practical solutions to urban issues which will achieve this triple bottom line, and that consideration of environmental impacts and social benefits is as important as financial returns. Our company has practiced this same philosophy since our inception in 1986, with intentional investments in our staff and workplaces to foster creativity and a commitment to excellence. We have pioneered the use of survey research to target urban housing products, created innovative GIS tools for smart growth planning, and provided real estate advisory services to some of the largest revitalization and sustainable development efforts in the US. We have also worked on more than 50 TOD strategies and plans, as well as award-winning sustainable regional plans. BAE is a certified Green Business in Alameda County, CA, bringing our sustainability focus to our own business practices. BAE is also certified as a WBE or DBE by numerous public agencies. The BAE difference shows - we have earned more awards for excellence than any other firm in our field, our core staff has averaged more than 15 years each with the company, and our clients have retained us repeatedly over our 28-year history. BAE has 20 staff members in five offices including San Francisco, Sacramento, Los Angeles, New York City, and Washington DC. For more information, see www.bae1.com.

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BAE Awards for Excellence 2016 Downtown South San Francisco Specific Plan, Northern California Section, APA

Long Beach Civic Center Master Plan, Southern California Section, APA Vacaville General Plan Update, California State, APA

2015 NASA/Google Moffett Airfield Lease, Best Public/Civic Project, Silicon Valley Business Journal; Real Property Innovation Award–Asset Management, US General Services Administration

2014 Oroville Arts, Cultural, and Entertainment District Plan, Sacramento Valley Section, APA

2011 Butte County General Plan Update, Sacramento Valley Section, APA

2010 West Broadway Urban Village Specific Plan, Northern California Section, APA

Baltimore State Center, Charter Award, Congress for New Urbanism

2009 Stewardship Council Land Conservation Plan, Association of Environmental Professionals

2008 Google Campus @ NASA Research Center, Silicon Valley Business Journal Deal of the Year

San Leandro Downtown TOD Strategy, ABAG Growing Smarter Together

23rd Street Specific Plan, City of San Pablo, Northern California Section, APA

2007 West Savannah Neighborhood Plan, Georgia Chapter, APA

Early Care & Education for All Plan for Alameda County, Northern California Section, APA

2006 Presidio Trust Management Plan, ULI Award for Excellence

2005 Coyote Valley Vision, Charter Award, Congress for the New Urbanism

2004 West Hyattsville TOD Strategy, AASHTO Best Project of the Year

Bay Area Smart Growth Strategy, Charter Award, Congress for the New Urbanism

Golden Gate National Recreation Area Wireless Communications Facility Siting Guidelines, Real Property Innovation, US General Services Administration

2003 NASA Research Park, Real Property Innovation, US General Services Administration

Bay Area Smart Growth Strategy, Charter Award, Congress for the New Urbanism

2002 Interstate MAX Station Area Plan, Oregon Chapter, APA

2001 Avila Beach Specific Plan, California Chapter, APA

2000 NASA Research Park Economic Development Workbook, Northern California Section, APA

1980s &

1990s

Woodland East Street Corridor Specific Plan, Sacramento Valley Section, APA Stockton Waterfront Revitalization Strategy, California Chapter, APA Presidio Main Post Marketing Campaign, National Association of Installation Developers The California Affordable Housing Cost Study, California Chapter, APA Downtown Lemoore Revitalization Plan, National Award, APA San Jose Housing Initiative, Northern California Section, APA

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Development Advisory Services METRO Joint Development Advisory Services Los Angeles METRO, CA

BAE has worked with METRO through an on-call contract to provide joint development and real estate development advisory services including review of developer submittals and negotiation support for long-term ground leases on multiple projects. BAE’s work includes negotiation support for three affordable housing projects that will meet the METRO Board’s recently-adopted policy that 1/3rd of METRO’s joint development will be affordable housing. BAE’s work accommodates issues unique to joint development by transit for these groundbreaking projects, including structuring possible ground lease payment discounts and/or pre-payment terms needed by project sponsors in cases of affordable housing (which have not yet been approved by FTA at the federal level). BAE’s work also includes review of development costs, revisions to update Joint Development Agreement/Ground Lease Agreement language, evaluation of the availability of other subsidy sources, and financial analysis of projects. For several other market-rate joint development projects underway in the METRO system, BAE has provided upfront market and financial feasibility analysis prior to issuance of developer RFPs. These studies help frame the “offering” and test community and METRO goals with respect to project mix, parking solutions, and proposed community benefits. BAE also served as a subconsultant to the METRO Quality of Life Study, which provides a systemwide overview of METRO’s station areas and measures overall progress to support improvements in each community’s sustainability.

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Port of San Francisco Real Estate Development Advisory Services Port of San Francisco, CA

BAE has served for over 10 years as the lead consultant for an on-call contract to provide development advisory services to the Port of San Francisco, including: Pier 38 Developer Submittal Evaluations. BAE completed a comprehensive analysis of two private development team submittals for Pier 38, an approximately 200,000 square foot structure with a historic bulkhead near AT&T Park and the proposed new Warriors Arena. The selected project will redevelop the structure as a mix of interior food-truck facilities, several restaurants and cafes, and tech-oriented flex space.

America’s Cup (AC34) Real Estate and Public Financing Support Services. BAE supported AC34 planning for long-term development projects associated with the event sponsors. BAE’s work included analyzing market conditions, creating detailed pro formas for a range of mixed-use development projections, evaluating proposed deal terms, and managing subconsultants. BAE also supported preparation of the Port’s Infrastructure Financing District Plan (IFD) to support infrastructure for other long-term Port projects.

Pier 29 Signature Retail Concepts. The Port engaged BAE to prepare an analysis of potential signature retail concepts for historic Pier 29. BAE interviewed retail brokers and identified demand drivers for retail uses at the pier and its likely market position in the northwest waterfront district. BAE also identified, researched, and evaluated a number of signature retail concepts located around the world, including Canada Place and the Railspur District in Vancouver, Skytree in Tokyo, Clarke Quay in Singapore, Chelsea Market in New York, La Boqueria in Barcelona, and the Stary Browar in Poland. Based upon this work, the Port released a RFP for a master developer and selected Jamestown L.P. in partnership with SF Made.

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Pier 29-31 Proposal Evaluation and Development Advisory Services. BAE worked with the Port over a three-year period to provide developer proposal evaluations and development advisory/negotiation services for this large mixed-use pier complex slated for redevelopment by Mills. BAE participated in extensive developer negotiations, including reverse-engineering the developer’s cash flow to negotiate deal terms, verifying tenant lease rates and market conditions, refining user pricing schedules, and recommending potential recreation tenants active in the Bay Area.

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Fillmore Heritage Center Mixed-Use Project San Francisco Redevelopment Agency, CA

Through an ongoing contract for on-call services with the San Francisco Redevelopment Agency, BAE has participated in several key projects over the past few years, including the Fillmore Heritage Center. The Fillmore area of San Francisco was the historical home of numerous jazz clubs and restaurants, but has experienced decades of disinvestment. In the mid-1990s, the Agency selected a developer to create a major entertainment venue to restore this area’s unique identity, but the project stalled. In order to reissue a feasible developer solicitation fitting market and financial conditions, BAE was engaged to analyze several land uses including hotel, movie theater, jazz nightclub, and housing. For each use, BAE prepared a market overview and financial pro forma. BAE worked with the community, through a series of community meetings, to discuss goals and feasible concepts. Following completion of a concept for the anchor site with community consensus, BAE assisted the Agency in reviewing two developer proposals. BAE analyzed the financial feasibility of the selected proposal, and refined the project so that it minimized public subsidies. BAE’s work included identifying additional funding sources, refining the development program’s residential units to create more marketable and better-timed phases, reducing expensive underground parking spaces, and fine-tuning performance milestones to fund the developer’s fees and profit. The Fillmore Heritage Center, completed in 2007, contains a mix of uses including for-sale condominiums, rental apartments, a Jazz Heritage Center museum, several ethnic restaurants, and an entertainment space.

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Hotel Vitale Development Advisory Services San Francisco MUNI and Mayor’s Office of Economic Development

BAE supported San Francisco MUNI and the Mayor’s Office of Economic Development in redevelopment of a former bus yard located at a prime site near the San Francisco Waterfront. BAE was first engaged to conduct a market and financial feasibility study of a boutique hotel project. Following MUNI Board approval, BAE assisted the City with a developer/operator solicitation and proposal review. BAE evaluated the five proposals received for financial return to the City, feasibility, and track record of the proposers. BAE also served on the interview panel, and provided advisory services. The development team of Emerald Fund and Joie de Vivre was selected to build the hotel. BAE formulated the business terms for a 55-year ground lease with renewal options, and reversion of all improvements to the City. BAE participated in the negotiation process, and supported the City Attorney’s Office in crafting the development agreement and long-term ground lease. Issues resolved by BAE and parties to the negotiation included the timing of up-front payments, deferral of partial ground lease payments until the project achieved stabilization, logistical issues related to bus layover and transportation, and methods to ensure a quality operation of this flagship property. BAE also drafted an Economic Benefits Report for review by the Budget Office and elected officials. This long-term partnership between the MUNI and the development team will result in over $300 million in revenue to the City of San Francisco. Hotel Vitale opened in 2004, and has enjoyed great success anchoring a thriving, revitalized San Francisco waterfront. The hotel is located across from the Ferry Building, along the Embarcadero.

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Santa Clara County Civic Center: Feasibility & Development Advisory Services County of Santa Clara, California

The Santa Clara County Civic Center campus occupies 55 acres near downtown San Jose. The Civic Center’s existing building stock is outdated, and the site plan does not foster urban connectivity or maximize land value. The County initially engaged BAE to prepare a residential and commercial market assessment, and to analyze the feasibility of a P3 approach to leverage land value in support of new County facilities. BAE also convened a developer panel to gauge interest in the proposed P3 project. Next, the County solicited master developer proposals, and subsequently selected Lowe Enterprises Real Estate Group, a national mixed use developer. After preliminary negotiations were completed, BAE was re-engaged to review the draft master development agreement. Drawing on our national experience with P3 transactions, BAE provided detailed recommendations to strengthen agreement terms related to development fees, budget and cost controls, the change-order process, environmental liability, construction warranties, termination provisions, and other financial terms. The County re-negotiated several key provisions based upon BAE’s suggestions, achieving a final agreement that reduced overall risk exposure of the County. The agreement was approved by the County Board of Supervisors and signed in May 2016.

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NASA Research Park P3 Development Advisory Services NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View CA

NASA Ames is a world-class research facility working in nanotechnology, bio-informatics, information technology, and advanced life sciences. This former military facility, now called NASA Research Park (NRP), is located in the heart of Silicon Valley and serves as a key engine for technology research and development in the region and the world. Since 1997, BAE has served as Real Estate and Economic Development Advisor to the NASA Research Park. BAE’s work has included initial development concept planning; business planning and financial feasibility testing; establishing real estate leasing protocols and management systems; preparing market surveys of office and apartment rents, land sales, and comparable development projects; and space lease and ground lease negotiation support. To date BAE has supported over 70 lease transactions for over one million square feet, including a $5.6 million building rehabilitation for Carnegie Mellon University’s Carnegie West campus, a $142 million ground lease of 42-acres to Google for a new office complex, and a 77-acre ground lease to the University of California Santa Cruz for a mixed-use campus. In total, BAE’s work has increased NASA’s real estate income from $330,000 in 2003 to over $14 million per year. BAE is currently assisting in the ongoing leasing of existing structures to technology firms, including start-up ventures. BAE recently completed a long-term ground lease of Moffett Federal Airfield to Google, Inc. on behalf of NASA. Examples of the exciting scientific research and co-locating companies in the NRP are profiled in the BAE-authored Economic Benefits of NASA Ames at: http://researchpark.arc.nasa.gov/. The NASA Ames project has received international recognition and numerous awards, including citation as a model case study in Understanding Research, Science, and Technology Parks, Global Best Practices by the National Research Council (2009), 2008 Deal of the Year by the Silicon Valley Business Journal for the NASA/Google ground lease, 2003 Innovative Real Property by the US General Services Administration (NASA Ames Development Plan). The project has been featured in special reports by Bloomberg TV and the British Broadcast Corporation.

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Long Beach Civic Center Development Advisory Services City of Long Beach, CA

BAE provided P3 development advisory services to the City of Long Beach for redevelopment of its Civic Center complex. The site, served by the Metro Blue Line, is strategically located in downtown Long Beach. Initially developed in the 1970s, the existing Civic Center is a functionally obsolete 16-acre civic complex spanning three city blocks, with a structurally deficient City Hall, Main Library, Lincoln Park, and a former federal courthouse. A primary objective of redeveloping the Civic Center site is to obtain a modern City Hall and Main Library, a revitalized Lincoln Park, and new private development to catalyze an activated site connecting downtown with the Metro Blue Line. BAE provided development advisory services to the City of Long Beach, including evaluation of financial and development opportunities of a lease-leaseback transaction with prospective bidders. BAE was instrumental in moving the process from an initial Request for Qualifications to a short list of eligible teams through the Request for Proposals. Two development team submittals were received from the detailed RFP. BAE evaluated each team’s composition, track record, deal terms, and related financial and business requests. After selection of the preferred team, BAE supported negotiations culminating in a Developer Agreement that was approved by the City of Long Beach in 2016.

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Fort Monroe Development Advisory Services Fort Monroe Authority (FMA), Hampton VA

BAE serves as the lead economics consultant to the Fort Monroe Authority (FMA) for the redevelopment of the 570-acre historic Fort Monroe in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. This National Historic Landmark District, with a history extending over nearly 400 years, has a collection of 170 historic structures. BAE prepared a 20-year financial model indicating the likely financial performance of the preferred reuse plan alternative and fiscal impact of the proposed reuse plan on the City of Hampton. Our work also included a bottom-up operating budget for Fort Monroe with estimates of municipal service costs likely to be incurred by the City of Hampton. Our financial analysis presented recommendations related to financing infrastructure, and establishing a leasing program (to generate revenue as well as protect historic assets). The Fort Monroe Reuse Plan was signed by the Governor in August 2008 and an updated plan was signed in December 2013. BAE was also engaged to prepare an economic benefits analysis of the proposed reuse of Fort Monroe for historic preservation, adaptive reuse, new development, and recreational uses. In addition, BAE served on the FMA’s Fort Monroe National Park Working Group, providing technical advice on park legislation and budgeting for park operations. BAE conferred with senior Washington-based NPS management to identify key issues and provided the FMA with analyses of the likely benefits and costs of the proposed park designation. BAE also prepared detailed evaluations of proposed easement areas within the park with respect to development potential as permitted under the programmatic agreement signed in 2008 by the FMA, Army, and NPS. This work formed the basis for the President’s designation in 2011 of Fort Monroe National Monument, As part of its continuing work, BAE prepared the draft Economic Development Conveyance (EDC) application, a business plan on behalf of the Commonwealth of Virginia, to acquire the site from the U.S. Army. This work includes a detailed estimate of development costs, operating revenues, and operating expenses, based on the Reuse Plan.

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Baltimore State Center TOD Project Development Advisory Services Maryland Department of Transportation, MD

BAE has provided development advisory and transaction support services to this $1.5 billion mixed-use redevelopment project since 2005. Baltimore State Center, initially developed in the 1970s, is an obsolete 28-acre state office complex served by light-rail, regional rail, subway, and Amtrak. Redevelopment of this site will create Maryland’s flagship TOD project by reconnecting urban neighborhoods and creating infill mixed-use development that integrates with this major transit hub. The Development Plan envisions a four-phase mixed-use project with 1.9 million square feet of new state and private office space, 1,500 housing units, and 560,000 square feet of transit-oriented retail, entertainment, and hospitality uses. During master planning stage, BAE formulated the development strategy, conducted financial feasibility analysis using a detailed cash flow model, and formulated an implementation strategy. BAE was then engaged to assist with the developer solicitation and negotiation process. BAE evaluated developer submittals, leading to the selection of the development team. BAE then provided transaction support to the State during negotiation of the Master Developer Agreement, and negotiation of the Phase 1 development agreement and ground lease. Throughout the project, BAE played a key role in facilitating state and local development approvals, coordinating complex ground leases between multiple public agencies and private developers, and refining the project to ensure feasibility. BAE’s work included testimony to the state legislature, numerous public meetings, and re-working of funding sources as the Great Recession impacted Phase 1. Baltimore State Center received a Charter Award from the Congress for New Urbanism in 2010. The project is expected to break ground in the next few years.

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Charlotte Strawn Site Development Advisory Services Charlotte Housing Authority / Horizon Development Properties, Inc., Charlotte, NC

BAE was retained by the Charlotte Housing Authority, through its non-profit subsidiary, Horizon Development Properties, Inc., to provide a range of development advisory services for redevelopment of the approximately 16 acre Strawn public housing site into a new mixed-income, mixed-finance project. The project includes renovation of public housing senior tower units already underway, along with construction of 743 new rental and for-sale residential units (with 132 units affordable); 128,000 square feet of new office space; and 77,000 square feet of new retail. Located in the historic South End, one of Charlotte’s most vibrant submarkets, the project seeks to generate substantial ongoing revenues for CHA in order to fund its housing portfolio’s rehab and development needs. CHA previously determined that it would seek to enter into a joint venture structure with a developer, in order to leverage the equity it could provide to the project. BAE’s role commenced with market analysis to identify product type, unit mix, amenity, and pricing recommendations that would maximize revenue generation to CHA. The BAE team developed a financial model structured to evaluate a range of development strategies and deal structures between CHA and a private master developer as well as the option of CHA acting as master developer and partnering with multiple developers for several parcels. BAE’s financial modeling assisted CHA in refining the project to enhance its feasibility and returns, and assisted it in successfully approaching the City of Charlotte to provide financial assistance for project infrastructure costs. BAE is leading the preparation of a developer RFP, including identification of targeted multifamily and urban infill developers.

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Pier 40 Reuse Study & Developer Solicitation Hudson River Park Trust, NY

The Hudson River Park Trust, a non-profit organization created by the State of New York, manages development of a new five-mile park along the Hudson River in Manhattan. The Trust also seeks private and non-profit partners to reuse large pier structures to generate revenue, provide recreation, and create community benefits. BAE was engaged in 2004 to evaluate a range of concepts for the reuse of Pier 40, a 1.2 million square foot former passenger terminal. BAE analyzed market demand and the potential benefits of destination retail, public food market, events center for non-profit organizations, aquariums, maritime recreational uses, educational facilities, and museums/cultural facilities. For each use, BAE profiled examples from around the world, interviewed potential users/developers, and evaluated the use according to specific benefit criteria and market demand. The BAE Market Scan also identified risks and recommended a series of next steps including an innovative non-profit approach. The study was presented to the Community Board as part of the process. In 2006, the Trust engaged BAE to draft a new RFP for a for-profit master developer. BAE created an attractive document, developed national ads, and prepared a targeted mailing list, resulting in several exciting proposals from local and national developers. BAE assisted the Trust in evaluating the submittals, including extensive financial analysis, assessment of creditworthiness, and evaluation of capabilities. BAE recommended changes in proposed business terms, and evaluated subsequent modified submittals. Eventually, as a result of community interest in seeking increased amounts of public space, as well as the economic downturn, the Trust determined that neither submittal would achieve these goals, and suspended the process.

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Menlo Park Economic and Real Estate Development Services City of Menlo Park, CA

For the past 5 years, BAE has provided development services to support Menlo Park’s attraction of new mixed-use development for tech firms, including: Economic Development Existing Conditions Report. BAE prepared an economic development existing conditions report that included a comprehensive assessment of economic trends and key sectors; analysis of firm formation, and growth; and targeted recommendations. For this work, BAE conducted a business survey, interviewed businesses, and evaluated model Downtowns, including San Carlos with its dynamic tenant mix with extensive dining. Development Project Analysis. BAE has evaluated proposed projects to inform negotiation of development agreements. This includes a study of the regional hotel market to identify the feasibility and revenue potential of a now-constructed Marriott Residence Inn. Public Benefit Bonus Analysis. For its El Camino Real/Downtown Specific Plan, the City established a public benefit bonus program for developers. BAE has evaluated multiple projects to determine the increase in developer profit from a potential bonus award, and its relationship to public benefit contributions. Fiscal Impact Analysis. BAE analyzed fiscal impact for multiple major projects, including Facebook’s new headquarters; Menlo Gateway mixed-use/hotel project; Sobrato Development’s 151 Commonwealth Project, and other residential and mixed-use projects. General Plan Support. BAE provided economic analysis to the City’s General Plan Update process, which focused on the M-2 commercial/industrial area, home to Facebook and other tech companies. The area is expected to add 8 M+ built square feet.

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Presidio of San Francisco Development Advisory Services National Park Service and Presidio Trust, CA

BAE has served as Development Advisor to the National Park Service and the Presidio Trust for this project since 1992. Initial work focused on market analysis and a solicitation process for the Main Post (350,000 square feet of historic structures), the Letterman Complex (one million square feet), historic housing units, and several community facilities. For each solicitation, BAE developed the RFP, marketed the sites, and evaluated proposals. BAE then negotiated long-term leases and building rehabilitation agreements for more than 300,000 square feet of office, commercial, and community facilities space. BAE also created a detailed $25 million operating budget for the Presidio, which was reviewed by OMB as part of the Congressional funding process. This work led to BAE’s development of the Presidio Cash Flow Model, specifying revenue streams, capital improvements, and cost-sharing among tenants and occupants. Subsequently, BAE evaluated management options for the Presidio’s 1,000 housing units, developed a business plan for revenue generation from the recreational areas of the Presidio, formulated guidelines and template lease documents for wireless and fiber telecommunications, prepared utility rate studies, and established a Service District Charge to recover the costs of providing municipal services. BAE evaluated developer proposals for the reuse of the Mason Street warehouses for the Presidio Trust, and performed a comprehensive analysis of NPS fire services that led to a major restructuring of the Presidio’s fire department. BAE also supported the formulation of the award-winning Presidio Trust Management Plan, including a comprehensive financial analysis and phasing strategy for capital improvements. Due to our record of service, BAE has also been engaged to provide ongoing real estate and business planning services to other components of the Golden Gate National Recreational Area (GGNRA) including briefings to the US Congress for special operating funding allocations and infrastructure improvement programs. More recently, BAE provided business planning support for the 2013 America’s Cup held in San Francisco in cooperation with the National Park Service.

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Jekyll Island Real Estate Development Advisory Services Jekyll Island Authority, GA

Jekyll Island is a unique, state-owned 5,530-acre barrier island operated by the Jekyll Island Authority (JIA). As JIA’s development advisor, BAE has provided the following services:

Residential Ground Lease Program Update. To encourage ground lease renewals by 620 Island homeowners, BAE analyzed JIA’s residential program and recommend changes including a simplified rent structure, percentage rent provisions, and a transfer fee on property sales. BAE worked with the JIA and the State Attorney General’s Office to create a new lease template, and a comprehensive marketing toolkit to communicate with Island residents. BAE’s successful work resulted in virtually all of the Island’s homeowners signing new leases, and increased revenues to the JIA.

Hotel Ground Lease Negotiation Support. BAE analyzed financial terms proposed by two hotel developers, and assisted JIA in negotiating improved revenue streams under long-term ground leases. BAE also prepared economic benefit analyses for each hotel proposal. BAE’s negotiation support led to successful agreements and development of a 200-room Starwood Westin Hotel and a 156-room Holiday Inn Resort (total of $48 million in project value).

Convention Center Operator Agreement Review. BAE reviewed the business terms proposed by a prospective convention center operator on behalf of the JIA. BAE reviewed similar agreements for comparable facilities, prepared extensive comments, and recommended changes. The JIA approved the agreement in 2011, resulting in current private-third party management of the Jekyll Island Convention Center.

Pro-Forma Analysis of Ocean Beach Retail Development. When the JIA decided to directly develop a 40,000 square foot retail project, BAE prepared a series of cash flow analyses to determine project financial performance under alternative state loan structures to minimize long-term debt. The project’s $6 million Phase One has been completed, and Phase Two is under construction.

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Sacramento Railyards Financial Analysis for P3 Thomas Enterprises (Developer)

BAE was engaged by the master developer of Sacramento Railyards to prepare a detailed, phased cash flow for the redevelopment of one of the largest infill projects in the country. Located near downtown Sacramento, The Railyards will transform the historic train station and surrounding former brownfield site into a dynamic urban environment with a 21st century mass transit hub. The project, which will redevelop 240 acres over a 20 year phased development, will offer a vibrant, urban atmosphere with over two million square feet of retail and entertainment space, more than 10,000 residential units, and up to three million square feet of office space and hotels. The major mixed-use project will also contain several parking garages, riverfront amenities, several museums, and multiple parks and open space areas. BAE’s role in the project was to assist the developer in initial financial analysis to structure a package of public subsidies and refine the initial land use plan. BAE’s detailed, multi-phased cash flow model illustrated developer returns by phase, as well as tax increment generated by the project and fiscal benefits to the City. BAE’s model provided the basis for initial funding assistance from the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency as well as State of California Prop 1C funds. BAE provided additional support by refining profitable land use components, identifying additional funding sources, and supporting the developer in its initial funding discussions with the City of Sacramento.

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Mare Island Development Advisory Services & EDC City of Vallejo, CA

BAE worked with the City of Vallejo on the redevelopment of Mare Island for over 10 years. This former Navy military base contains 1,200 acres and three million square feet of built space, including historic structures. BAE’s initial work was commissioned as a follow-up to an Urban Land Institute panel on reuse. BAE prepared a detailed market analysis and business plan for redevelopment of the Island, covering housing, retail, heavy industrial, light industrial, office, education, live/work, and visitor attraction uses. BAE developed an interim five-year cash flow to create immediate revenues to the City upon base closure, as well as a 20-year detailed financial analysis of infrastructure improvements, phased new development, and rehabilitation of three million square feet of existing structures. The concepts developed by BAE have guided Mare Island’s interim reuse, resulting in more than $5 million per year in revenue to the City. BAE subsequently supported the City during negotiations with the Navy on several landmark agreements, including the Economic Development Conveyance (which initiated the nation’s first conveyance with transition funding by the military to the City), and the nation’s first early transfer remediation agreement. Following a developer solicitation, BAE supported the City in its negotiations with Lennar to reach a Master Developer Agreement. This work included BAE participation in negotiating sessions and development of deal terms. Subsequently, BAE assisted in a new developer solicitation for Area 1, the planned business park portion of the Island. BAE provided advisory services to a subcommittee of the City Council charged with developer selection for this area. The Area 1 process led to a new series of negotiations with Lennar to implement the business park, with BAE supporting the City in the process.

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P3 Financial Analysis for City of San Diego Redevelopment Agency City of San Diego Redevelopment Agency, CA

BAE worked with San Diego Redevelopment Agency through an on-call contract to provide pro forma financial analysis and review real estate transactions, as highlighted below: Transaction Support for Adaptive Reuse of Historic Building in North Park. BAE provided transaction support to the Agency for a Disposition and Development Agreement with a local developer to reuse a historic former Woolworth’s building as a mixed-use project with new retail and rental residential uses. The project, located in the gentrifying North Park neighborhood, represented a pioneering retail use for the area. BAE reviewed the developer’s pro formas and funding request, including development costs, rent, and rate of return. Based on BAE’s review, alternative assumptions were identified to reduce required Agency funding. BAE subsequently prepared the Section 33433 report for this project, which has received final approval from the City. Veterans Village Financial Analysis and Review. BAE assisted the Agency with review of a funding request for a proposed transitional housing project for homeless veterans. The project, the next phase of the existing non-profit’s Veterans Village of San Diego, will provide housing and services targeted at the unique needs of Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans. The project will utilize San Diego Housing Commission and Agency affordable housing loan funds. BAE’s work included analysis of the non-profit’s pro forma, review of restrictions associated with financing sources, recommendations for revisions to the project pro forma to enhance feasibility, and preparation of a briefing for the Agency’s review.

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San Diego Financial Analysis and Project Review Environmental Health Coalition (EHC), CA

BAE has served on-call for the Environmental Health Coalition (EHC), a non-profit actively engaged in the San Diego planning and development community, as follows: Chula Vista Waterfront. BAE supported the EHS’s participation in the master planning process for the Chula Vista waterfront. BAE prepared a pro forma analysis of the proposed development program along with an alternate EHC-developed “Coalition Plan.” For each alternative, BAE estimated project revenues, development costs, profit margins, and resulting residual land values. BAE’s work spurred the Port of San Diego to consider sustainable development options proposed by EHC. Ballpark Village Affordable Housing Financial Analysis. On behalf of EHC, BAE evaluated affordable housing alternatives proposed by JMI for Ballpark Village, a 3.2 million square foot master planned development adjacent to PetCo Park in San Diego. BAE prepared pro formas to test the feasibility of the project to support additional affordable housing at either on- or off-site locations. BAE’s analysis led to additional affordable housing commitments to surrounding communities affected by the project. Barrio Logan Community Plan. Barrio Logan, a disadvantaged community near downtown San Diego, has faced significant gentrification pressure in recent years, leading to a Community Plan process. EHC provided significant stakeholder input regarding density and production of sufficient replacement affordable housing in the event of displacement. BAE provided EHC with technical support during the Community Plan process by preparing a series of financial pro formas to model the feasibility of residential prototypes at different densities, demonstrating that property owners could benefit from densities that were preferred by residents. BAE also analyzed the financial feasibility of affordable housing products, to find a balance of market-rate and affordable units that could be feasibly built while providing mixed-income housing. BAE also evaluated mechanisms to mitigate potential gentrification pressures.

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Financing, Operations, and Impacts Funding Strategy for San Francisco Segment of Caltrain Electrification CCSF Controller’s Office/SFMTA

BAE worked with SFMTA and the CCSF Capital Projects division to assess potential funding strategies for San Francisco’s $60 million commitment to the CalTrain JPA for first-phase rail electrification/modernization. This major improvement project will form the backbone of rail infrastructure for the high speed rail system in San Francisco, and had already been approved as a capital project to improve CalTrain services (but not fully funded). BAE conducted a review of all prior funding allocations by SFMTA and the City/County of San Francisco to this project, including various expenditures and borrowings by the County’s CMA, and other transit agencies. BAE also reviewed estimated costs of the planned electrification project, including identifying areas requiring further analysis to refine future costs. The study then analyzed commute patterns, prior cost-allocation agreements, and additional options for generating local funding, including surcharges on commuters into the City, entertainment event taxes, and other non-real property mechanisms. As BAE was finalizing the study, the Mayor convened a blue-ribbon panel to wrap this funding need into larger funding needs for other San Francisco transportation infrastructure improvements. BAE’s work supported this broader panel’s recommendations.

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Beverly Hills Parking In-Lieu Fee Study City of Beverly Hills

The City of Beverly Hills has several parking policies aimed at traffic reduction, pedestrian safety, and fostering a sense of place within Golden Triangle commercial area, located between Santa Monica Boulevard, Wilshire Boulevard, and North Cannon Drive. These policies include park-once-and-walk strategies, as well as minimum parking requirements. More recently, the City developed a parking in-lieu fee that allows developers and tenants located within the Golden Triangle commercial area to pay an in-lieu fee, rather than build new parking spaces. Developers and tenants can then lease parking in a local garage to provide the required parking spaces. The City retained a multi-disciplinary team to evaluate its current in-lieu fee and assess the potential for expanding the in-lieu fee to areas outside of the Golden Triangle. As part of this analysis, BAE compared Beverly Hills’ existing parking requirements and in-lieu fees to programs in West Hollywood, Santa Monica, and Culver City to assess its regional competitiveness. BAE then conducted financial feasibility analyses using static pro forma models to determine how parking requirements and the existing parking in-lieu fees impact new development inside the Golden Triangle, as well as in other commercial areas into which the City is considering expanding the in-lieu fee program. In addition, BAE prepared financial pro formas to test the sensitivity of development feasibility to different in-lieu fees.

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San Francisco Capital Projects: Streamlining the Approvals Process City and County of San Francisco Controller’s Office, CA

The City of San Francisco Controller’s Office and the Citizen’s General Obligation Bond Oversight Committee (CGOBOC) commissioned BAE to prepare an analysis and recommendations regarding the timing and processes followed for review and approval of capital projects funded by general obligation (GO) bonds. In San Francisco, all GO bonds are voter-approved. After approval, the lead department designs the project(s), conducts public outreach, undertakes required environmental review, obtains approval from a special Design Review Commission for public projects, and seeks approvals and permits from dozens of local, regional, state, and federal agencies as applicable. Due to regulatory jurisdiction by multiple other agencies, even a simple park project can take two to three years to complete all reviews and approvals. In addition, most capital projects involving procurement of design, engineering, and construction services are reviewed by the Human Resources Commission and Civil Service Commission, BAE prepared an extensive analysis of this process, including full case review of nine projects selected from among key bond measures. BAE prepared a graphic “map” of the process, interviewed department project managers and directors, and evaluated the time for each step in the process. BAE also benchmarked San Francisco’s experience against five peer cities. This work led to a series of recommendations by BAE to streamline th review and approvals processes in order to reduce costs and expedite project delivery.

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Alcatraz Embarkation Long-Term Lease Negotiation Support Golden Gate National Recreation Area, National Park Service

The National Park Service engaged BAE to support negotiations of a Memorandum of Understanding with the Port of San Francisco for long-term use of Pier 31 ½ as an improved “embarkation” point for ferry service to Alcatraz National Monument. Approximately 1.5 million visitors per year access the Alcatraz Island via ferry services provided by a NPS concessioner from this location at Pier 31½ on the San Francisco waterfront. BAE first prepared an economic benefits analysis of GGNRA’s Alcatraz ferry operation and visitors to the Port and City of San Francisco. The analysis included data and findings outlining direct lease revenues to the Port, along with visitor spending benefits and stimulus to other waterfront commercial enterprises. BAE also prepared a survey of market rents for water-borne transportation and then commissioned and managed an appraisal of the preferred Embarkation site. BAE collected, reviewed, and summarized key economic terms in leases of pier facilities to water-borne transportation tenants both at the Port of San Francisco and other ports throughout the US, To support of GGNRA’s negotiations with the Port, BAE reviewed drafts of the Memorandum of Understanding and recommended refinements to each party to clarify planned capital improvements and maintenance responsibilities.

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Business Planning for NTC Promenade Arts District at Liberty Station San Diego Redevelopment Agency, CA

NTC Promenade at Liberty Station is a public-private non-profit arts and cultural center created as part of the larger redevelopment of the former Naval Training Center near San Diego’s downtown. Funded through a combination of developer and City contributions, as well as historic preservation and New Market Tax Credits, the NTC Foundation has successfully renovated a number of historic buildings to create a home for a variety of performing arts and related organizations, as well as event facilities. However, NTC has not succeeded at attracting significant private financial support, and was requesting substantial additional funding from the City to complete the renovation of its remaining buildings. As a result, the organization’s debt burden would increase, causing further financial risk to funders. BAE was engaged by the San Diego Redevelopment Agency to support a review of the facility’s business plan. BAE’s work included a review of the organization's development strategy, tenant selection procedures, operating budget, and potential revisions to its business plan. Work included meetings with NTC, a review of its financial statements, interviews with regional arts funders and organizations on demand and need for arts facilities, and a review of future NTC development plans. BAE then formulated recommendations to incorporate arts-related housing, create more flexible tenanting guidelines, pursue strategic partnerships with other arts organizations that could fund rehab of their own facilities, and increase special events activities to enhance revenues and NTC’s visibility. These recommendations were used by the City in its subsequent review and approval of NTC’s loan request.

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Fire District Impact Fee Programs for Yolo County Yolo County, CA

Yolo County, a large and geographically diverse region, initially retained BAE to assist rural fire districts in establishing development impact fee programs. BAE worked with numerous local fire districts to create the documentation needed to comply with AB 1600, which requires a legally-defined nexus between the fee and the costs it is intended to offset. This legal framework only permits fees to be charged for new development impacts; it does not permit projects to offset existing deficiencies in the system. To meet the challenge of extensive data collection from numerous small, sometimes volunteer-staffed districts, BAE facilitated an innovative process by initially organizing a series of training workshops for fire districts' personnel to inform participants about the legal requirements for impact fees, help develop growth projections, and identify resulting new capital equipment and facility needs. BAE then worked with individual fire districts to prepare each nexus analysis and calculate fee schedules, allocating the identified costs to new and existing development. With this necessary documentation, individual districts were then able to work with County staff to adopt fee ordinances, resulting in a successful program for each fire district to defray its allowable capital costs and maintain service levels. Numerous successfully adopted and implemented fee programs resulted from this process. After adoption of the County's new General Plan in 2009, BAE was again retained to provide technical assistance to six fire districts as they conducted five-year impact fee program updates, aligning their fee program assumptions with the updated General Plan. This involved updating development projects to reflect new local land use policies and changed environmental and economic conditions, revising capital programs and cost allocations, and preparing updated fee schedules.

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NASA Research Park Economic Benefits Study NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View CA

NASA Ames is a world-class research facility working in nanotechnology, bio-informatics, and advanced life sciences. Located in the heart of Silicon Valley, NASA Ames serves as a key engine for technology research and development in the region and the world. Examples of the exciting scientific research and co-locating companies in the NRP are profiled in the BAE-authored Economic Benefits of NASA Ames at: http://researchpark.arc.nasa.gov/. This nationally-distributed publication was designed, researched, and written by Janet Smith-Heimer and David Shiver of BAE. BAE has served as Economic Development Advisor to the NASA Research Park since 1997. BAE’s work has included initial development concept planning; business planning; establishing leasing protocols, preparing market surveys, and negotiating space leases and long-term development agreements. BAE’s work for NASA has received international recognition and numerous awards, including citation as a model case study in Understanding Research, Science, and Technology Parks, Global Best Practices by the National Research Council (2009), 2008 Deal of the Year by the Silicon Valley Business Journal for the NASA/Google ground lease, 2003 Innovative Real Property by the US General Services Administration (NASA Ames Development Plan), and 2000 Award for Excellence by the Northern California Chapter of the APA for BAE’s Economic Development Concept Workbook.

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Economic Impacts of Port of San Francisco Maritime & Industrial Uses Port of San Francisco, CA

The Port of San Francisco, a self-supporting public enterprise of the City & County of San Francisco, manages a large portfolio of waterfront property with a diverse mix of maritime, industrial, entertainment, office, and retail uses. BAE was engaged by the Port to quantify the economic impacts of maritime and industrial uses at all Port properties, updating a similar BAE study completed in 2008. Based on Port data augmented by direct research, BAE compiled a detailed inventory of leased square feet by that is occupied by maritime and industrial tenants at the Port, by detailed sub-sector. This data was also compared to Dun & Bradstreet data to estimate jobs per business occupant. BAE then analyzed the employment and space estimates by sub-sector to published overall data for San Francisco, to highlight the key role that the Port property plays in the local economy, both on a space and employment basis. A key finding of this analysis was that the Port contains approximately 10 percent of all industrial space inventory within San Francisco, and plays a key role as the location for specific sub-sectors such as concrete manufacturing, ship repair, and transportation services. BAE also conducted a series of in-depth interviews with Port-located businesses to identify key waterfront locational advantages, map supply chains, and gauge the impacts to the City’s economy if these businesses relocated elsewhere. Along with an analysis of multiplier effects using IMPLAN, and an extensive review of prior studies, BAE provided the Port with a comprehensive assessment of the impacts and importance of the Port’s maritime and industrial portfolio to San Francisco.

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Impacts of Big Box Retail Stores on Community Retail More than 50 studies

BAE has completed numerous studies assessing the impacts of proposed “big box” retail stores such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot on local communities. The studies carefully define the trade area to be affected through detailed, on-the-ground observation and interviews with merchants and local city staff regarding existing trade area geographic dimensions. Our studies have estimated current and potential future demand for the goods provided by the proposed project, evaluate the likely capture of this demand by the new big box store, estimate sales losses or gains at existing retailers over time, and conclude with an evaluation of how these changes will affect the viability of existing retailers. These studies may also assess job and wage-related impacts and fiscal impacts where changes in tax revenues must be considered in tandem with costs of service provision to the proposed project. In California, these studies often take the form of “urban decay” impact assessments due to a series of court decisions linking the issue to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). BAE's studies are notable for their high quality, transparent methodologies, clear assumptions, and neutral approach to this issue. We typically work for the local government body, rather than for the sponsor of the project, ensuring a reliable, balanced work product. For the California studies, the legal framework requires translating these findings into potential for long-term store closures that could conceivably result in physical decline of the vacant properties and result in blight or urban decay. Most of BAE's CEQA-related California studies have been reviewed by the courts; in all of these cases, BAE’s studies have been accepted by review judges.

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Downtown Columbia MD Economic Benefits Analysis

Howard County, MD

Columbia, Maryland was created by developer James W. Rouse in the 1960s as a “New Town.” Located between Washington, DC and Baltimore, Columbia has developed into a desirable community, but its downtown has not achieved full vitality. The community, along with Howard County, conducted a visioning process to guide future downtown development, targeting a mix of pedestrian-oriented uses to accommodate housing, employment, retail, entertainment, and active recreation. As stakeholders reviewed implementation steps, including funding major infrastructure and event programming activities, BAE was engaged to prepare an Economic Benefits analysis. BAE utilized IMPLAN in conjunction with localized development assumptions and the Howard County Budget to assess the number of jobs, economic activity, and public revenues that will occur as a result of investing in the Vision, compared to a No Plan alternative. Our work included extensive discussions with the master developer, General Growth, to document phasing and amount of space to be developed. BAE described the economic benefits at the county, state, and national levels of the combination of public and private investment expected from the Vision, and provided a framework for discussion of these benefits in public meetings. BAE also completed several case studies to illustrate the ability of attractive suburban communities to support denser downtowns, including Reston, VA and Walnut Creek, CA.

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Economic Impacts of Johns Hopkins University and Health Systems Johns Hopkins University, MD

BAE has been engaged multiple times to track and analyze the impacts of Johns Hopkins University’s institutions and their commercial spin-off operations on the economies of Baltimore, the region, and the State of Maryland. BAE’s work, available in a series of reports, has been presented to state legislators and other stakeholders. The studies included detailed compilation and analysis of faculty and staff employment, construction spending, and purchasing data for the University, the Health System, and seven affiliated organizations. BAE developed an impact model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of these institutions, including the benefits of scientific research on local and regional economic development and technology transfer. Work included extensive profiling and analysis of innovation in science and technology spurred by the Health Systems at Johns Hopkins. The BAE studies also documented social and cultural benefits of public investment in the University and its affiliates to the surrounding local area and region, including community involvement and human capital impacts of the institutions and their employees.

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Menlo Park Gateway Fiscal Impact Analysis City of Menlo Park, CA

BAE conducted a detailed analysis of Menlo Park Gateway for the City of Menlo Park to assess the full range of fiscal impacts associated with this major mixed-use project located adjacent to Highway 101. The proposed project will include 700,000 square feet of high-rise office space and a 235 room full service hotel with health club, restaurants, and ancillary retail. This highly visible project will be the first urban scale development to receive approvals in a portion of city not previously densely developed. The project had also raised community concerns regarding its potential impact on City finances and municipal services. Project sponsors and opponents had both prepared fiscal impact analyses with different methodologies and findings. BAE was engaged by the City to prepare a fully vetted, technically accurate analysis to estimate all fiscal revenues, service costs, and other impacts. The analysis evaluated these impacts on the City’s budget, as well as on special districts including flood control and schools. BAE's analysis used a marginal cost approach, calibrating new costs to existing service capacity. The analysis also considered factors beyond direct fiscal impacts, including impact of the office building tenant mix on generation of business-to-business sales taxes; the viability of controlling tenant mix to increase such receipts; the induced housing demand from new office employment and the resulting demand on local schools; and the extent to which development of the site, located in an older industrial park, will induce redevelopment of other properties. BAE worked with an advisory committee containing both project proponents and opponents to review our methodology, research, and findings. Subsequently, BAE presented the findings of its fiscal impact analysis to Planning Commission and City Council, with all parties accepting the report’s findings that the project would generate significant net fiscal benefits to the City, resolving this issue as a concern in the community.

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UCSC Contributions to the Santa Cruz Economy University of California at Santa Cruz, CA

BAE was commissioned by the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) to prepare a detailed analysis of the University’s economic contributions to the local Santa Cruz area and Monterey Bay region. BAE approached this project from both a quantitative and qualitative viewpoint. For the quantitative measurement of impacts, BAE utilized IMPLAN, a dynamic econometric model which estimates the direct, indirect, and induced effects of spending in the regional economy. BAE compiled UCSC spending including capital projects, purchases of goods and services, and spending on faculty and staff compensation and benefits. BAE also quantified student, faculty, and visitor spending in the regional economy, based on a series of surveys which BAE conducted by email/web response to all then-currently enrolled students and employed faculty/staff. For the qualitative portions of the study, BAE interviewed more than 30 distinguished alumni throughout the world. We also compiled statistics regarding the number of community service and volunteer hours contributed by current students and alumni living in the Santa Cruz area to regional non-profit and research organizations. BAE also interviewed numerous faculty members conducting ground-breaking scientific and sociological research, including in the fields of bio-science, engineering, astrobiology, astronomy, and pioneering digital arts. The BAE Report was published as a summary and full report, and posted on UCSC’s main web site for six years. It was subsequently updated as part of the UC Systemwide analysis of all UC campuses’ economic contributions, which found that BAE’s 2005 estimate of $906 million economic contribution to the region had increased to over $1.2 billion by 2011.

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Economic Impacts of University of San Francisco University of San Francisco, CA

BAE was commissioned by the University of San Francisco (USF) to conduct an economic impacts study of its main San Francisco campus and all Bay Area regional campuses in 2011. The study took both a quantitative and qualitative approach to profile the extensive contributions of this renowned private Jesuit University. As San Francisco’s 15th largest employer and a key educator of graduates working in legal, business, education, and nursing professions, it was also important to highlight USF’s contributions to local economic development. BAE quantified the economic impacts by compiling data on spending by USF for capital projects, goods and services, and faculty/staff compensation. These direct expenditures were analyzed using IMPLAN, an econometric model, to estimate indirect and induced multiplier effects of these economic contributions. In addition, BAE collected data regarding USF’s payments of local tax revenues, volunteer hours and community service contributed by students and faculty/staff, and economic development initiatives. Each of USF’s schools and departments were profiled, including recent research. BAE interviewed alumni and faculty, to highlight regional entrepreneurship connections. The final report was prepared in an attractive summary format to provide a comprehensive guide to USF’s economic impacts on the San Francisco and regional economy.

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Economic Benefits of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LNL), CA

The National Ignition Facility (NIF) is the world’s largest and most precise laser (five football fields in length). The NIF was conceived to reduce the need for nuclear weapons testing, replacing live underground explosions with a controlled environment to “ignite” fusion by laser, in a laboratory. BAE was engaged by LLNL to lead a study of potential economic development and technology transfer/commercial application benefits of the NIF. While BAE conducted the standard IMPLAN economic impacts analysis of the multiplier effects of construction and permanent jobs, the main benefits were in the technologies to be developed. Thus, we formulated an approach to document prior R & D at LLNL related to predecessor laser technologies that led up to the NIF, tracing example technologies from the LLNL lab to commercial applications to the estimated new businesses, new jobs, and new industry niches resulting from these innovations. Examples of the technologies included next-generation laser-produced microchips for personal computers, since put into commercial production; technologies now present in high definition televisions (still in the lab when we did the study); experimental medical and surgical use of lasers for brain and eye surgeries; and even more basic innovations such as infrared measurement tools now available for building contractors. Our work involved extensive interviews with LLNL scientists who had participated in transfer and commercial applications, as well as several industry-specific business leader focus groups. Our work was overseen by an academic panel of experts from the University of California at Berkeley, including pre-eminent professors and researchers in global technology transfer, international economic development, and economic theoreticians. The BAE report was presented to several appropriations committees in the House and Senate. The NIF was completed in fall 2009, and is currently operating at full capacity.

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Our Staff Matt Kowta, MCP, Managing Principal

For over 25 years, Matt has pioneered innovative techniques in economic analysis to meet the challenges of contemporary urban development. Matt oversees BAE operations spanning all of BAE’s offices, supporting clients with expertise in market analysis and development feasibility, public finance and fiscal impact, affordable housing, and strategic economic development. Based in BAE’s Davis office for over 20 years, Matt has managed numerous assignments throughout the Sacramento region, including the public facilities financing plan for The Villages of

Zinfandel, an 820-acre mixed-use project in Rancho Cordova; a revitalization strategy for the Florin Road corridor shopping district; comprehensive economic development strategies for the Cities of Citrus Heights and Woodland; and the economic analysis for the Sacramento Waterfront Master Plan Update. Under his leadership, BAE has been at the forefront of economic analysis for transit-oriented development in the Sacramento region, including the economic analysis for Sacramento Regional Transit’s landmark Transit for Livable Communities study of transit-oriented development potential throughout its light rail system. Other studies conducted for a diverse range of projects include real estate market analysis and development feasibility analysis; economic studies in support of General Plans, Specific Plans, and other long-range planning efforts; fiscal impact analysis; affordable housing needs studies and strategies; incorporation advisory services and annexation studies; and numerous other specialized economic analyses tailored to the unique needs of BAE’s clients. Matt has also managed projects in locations ranging from the San Francisco Bay Area to Reno/Tahoe, Southern California, Oregon, Washington State, and Colorado. His experience spans the full continuum of the development process, from long range planning and pre-development through redevelopment and revitalization. He has provided expert witness and litigation support services to public agency and private sector clients, including sworn testimony. Matt has also supported litigation involving revenue sharing arrangements for a newly incorporated community, real estate marketability, and enforcement of fair housing law. Matt earned a BA in Geography from UCLA and an MCP from UC Berkeley. He has been a guest lecturer at UC Berkeley, UC Davis, and a speaker at conferences of the California Downtown Association, CALAFCo, and the Urban Land Institute. He is past Chair of the Davis Downtown Business Association and chaired a task force appointed by the Davis City Council to develop a comprehensive downtown parking management plan.

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David Shiver, MBA, MCP, Principal David’s 30 years of experience in land acquisition, development, leasing, negotiations, operations, and public benefit programs all enhance BAE's “hands on” approach to public real estate development advisory and planning services. David leads BAE’s extensive mission-driven real estate development practice, including strategic planning, development agreement negotiations, and related public agency advisement. David serves as Principal-in-Charge for BAE’s work in Silicon Valley

communities to formulate general plans, specific plans, precise plans, and associated community benefit programs that support both market rate and affordable housing production, as well as open space and mobility enhancements. He completed a community benefits analysis for the San Antonio Precise Plan Area in Mountain View and directed a major revision of the City of Menlo Park’s benefit program to better support the city’s General Plan. David leads BAE’s work in economic development and real estate advisory services for the NASA Research Park, a national advanced research facility on 2,000 acres in Silicon Valley, which at buildout, will form one of the largest mixed-use public-private development projects in the country. Under David’s direction, NASA Ames has pioneered development of P3 R&D projects which engage leading researchers through synergistic co-location and joint research, while also providing mixed-income housing to ensure an overall jobs/housing balance. NASA Research Park includes R&D space for Silicon Valley firms, NASA, and major universities, along with 1,900 units of mixed-income housing. For NASA, he has also completed strategic plans, conducted developer solicitations, negotiated major long-term ground leases with Google, Inc., and completed building leases and financing plans for infrastructure. For more than 20 years, David has also provided real estate and business advisory services to the National Park Service and the Presidio Trust for the conversion of the Presidio of San Francisco from a military base to a national urban park and mixed-use development. David formulated a detailed $25 million operating budget, supported more than 25 lease transactions, and created a successful operating cost-recovery program that has generated over $16 million since inception. For the Presidio Trust, David completed studies of commercial leasing, property management, maintenance, telecommunications, and utility business issues. He also managed a team to create a comprehensive financial model for the Presidio Trust Implementation Plan, and developed leasing and management plans for the Presidio's 1,100 housing units, including an affordable housing needs analysis for federal public safety employees. David received a BA in Public Affairs from the University of Chicago, and an MCP and MBA from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the Urban Land Institute and the American Planning Association.

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Sherry Rudnak, MA, LEED-AP, Principal Sherry leads projects across BAE’s California offices and oversees its Southern California practice, contributing her strong project management and problem-solving skills to BAE’s clients. Sherry specializes in providing development advisory services, as well as market, financial feasibility and impacts analyses to BAE’s engagements. Sherry has prepared numerous feasibility studies and provided negotiation support for to public agencies across California. She is

currently advising the Port of San Francisco on potential developments for the Historic Core of Pier 70. She is assisting LA County Metro Joint Development staff in negotiating a ground lease for two 100 percent affordable housing projects to be built on sites in Boyle Heights, evaluating developer proposals, and assisting Metro in reaching its 35 percent affordable housing policy. She recently assisted the City of Long Beach negotiate a new Civic Center with adjacent private development. Sherry also leads traditional planning efforts for BAE engagements. She is currently leading an Equitable TOD analysis for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA), in Atlanta, GA. MARTA is planning to develop a new transit line. As part of this effort, Sherry is conducting a market analysis and preparing development feasibility testing to promote development policies that minimize displacement of existing residents, and support local job creation. Sherry recently completed market analyses, pro forma financial feasibility analyses, and financing strategies for Specific Plan corridors in Anaheim, Redwood City, Lynwood, Mountain View, Commerce, and San Diego, California, as well as for Los Angeles County. Sherry has also prepared market and financial feasibility studies for proposed lifestyle centers, hotels, residential, mixed-use, and TOD projects across California, as well as numerous fiscal and economic impact analyses for plans and projects in northern California, Atlanta, and suburban Maryland communities. She analyzed the feasibility of modifying Sacramento’s inclusionary housing policy to incentivize additional for-sale affordable units in a variety of different residential typologies, and supported the recent Los Angeles City Affordable Housing Linkage Fee study. Sherry also served as an on-call financial analyst for the U.S. Coast Guard to guide real estate investment decisions. Sherry received an MA in Economics from California State University, Sacramento, and a BA in Economics from Georgia State University. She has lectured on real estate market analysis for the ULI Real Estate School, and participated as an expert member of AIA’s Urban Development Advisory Team for the Elysian Fields Avenue corridor in New Orleans. She is a former ULI Los Angeles District Council Advisory Board member. She earned her designation as a U.S. Green Building Council LEED Accredited Professional in 2007.

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Ray Kennedy, MA, Director of Research Ray’s in-depth knowledge of complex data sources and quantitative methods has been a premier BAE asset since he joined BAE in 1988. He contributes to all BAE engagements across the company, providing strong analytical and data management services. Ray is one of the California’s leading experts in “urban decay” impact analysis, which assesses the effects of developing new retail space on existing retail sales and supportable square feet in a trade area. Ray has completed impact studies for proposed retail centers throughout

California including projects in Tracy, Patterson, Los Banos, Crescent City, Antioch, Eureka, Morgan Hill, Petaluma, Redding, Suisun City, Windsor, and Napa. This work includes establishing the trade area, analyzing retail leakage, estimating capture of additional sales from growth in future years, identifying supportable square feet, and making findings regarding potential physical deterioration resulting from imbalances in supply and demand for retail space. Ray is expert in conducting economic impact studies using IMPLAN, a dynamic model of direct, indirect, and induced economic activity and job growth from key regional investments. He has provided analysis using IMPLAN for projects ranging from the Berkeley In-Lieu Housing Fee study to the San Francisco Food and Beverage Production Strategy. Ray also has extensive experience in preparing affordable housing market studies and plans. He has managed completion of over 50 Low Income Housing Tax Credit market studies, meeting all regulatory requirements for detailed demand estimates by household income range. He has supported numerous Consolidated Plans, Housing Elements, and Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing. Ray is also expert at spatial analysis, and has prepared numerous maps using ArcGIS. His primary survey research includes leading large-sample surveys for the City of San Francisco regarding housing needs and landlord experiences in rent stabilization. Ray also has prepared numerous real estate development cash flows and pro formas, including recent work for the redevelopment of Fort Monroe, VA, a former military installation being converted to a mix of hotel, housing, and office space. This model combines private real estate investment scenarios with associated public municipal service costs and capital improvement expenditures in infrastructure improvements, generating a complete picture of private sector feasibility and public sector fiscal impacts throughout the 20 year redevelopment period. Ray holds a BA in Anthropology and an MA in Geography from the University of Cincinnati, and has completed specialized training in real estate financial analysis at UC Berkeley.

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Aaron Nousaine, MCRP, Vice President Aaron has nearly ten years of experience in the field of urban economics, economic development, and planning. He began his professional career as an Analyst in BAE’s Sacramento Region office. Aaron rejoined the BAE Sacramento Region team in 2013 and now, as Vice President, plays a key role in the day-to-day management of BAE’s broad portfolio of consulting assignments. While Aaron conducts technical analyses across BAE’s full range of services, he also specializes in economic development, mixed-use and transit oriented development, economic and fiscal impact analysis, and affordable housing.

Aaron’s recent engagements include an economic development strategy for the City of Grover Beach and General Plan updates for the City of Stockton and the City of Eureka, among other ongoing projects. Aaron also recently worked as BAE’s techncial lead on two regional housing needs assessments conducted for the Tahoe Truckee Community Foundation and the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency. He also developed a customized IMPLAN economic impact model, to estimate the economic contribution of specialty agriculture in the Sacramento region, in addition preparing an economic impact assessment of the Bay Delta Conservation Plan on Solano County agriculture. Aaron also recently completed an intensive financial modeling exercise on behalf of Palm Beach County in Florida, which informed modifications to countywide workforce housing program regulations, in addition to preparing financial feasibility analyses for residential and mixed-use projects in the Central Valley and Central Coast regions. His affordable housing experience includes Housing Element Updates, Consolidated Plans, and Analyses of Impediments to Fair Housing to assist California communities, including the City of Davis, City of St. Helena, Napa County, Stockton, and Yolo County in developing effective housing policies and programs. In addition to his more recent work, Aaron’s experience includes economic and real estate market trends analyses and fiscal impacts analysis for General Plans throughout Northern California, and corridor revitalization plans in communities such as Butte County and Sacramento County, and the cities of Chico, Eureka, St. Helena, Sacramento and Truckee. Before rejoining BAE, Aaron worked as a Planner with the California Energy Commission, conducting fiscal and economic impact analysis for proposed power plant siting cases. He also served as a Senior Associate with the Carolina Center for Competitive Economies (C3E) at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise. Aaron holds a BA in Political Economy from CSU Monterey Bay and an MCRP from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Aaron holds a BA in Political Economy from CSU Monterey Bay and an MCRP from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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Stephanie Hagar, MCP, Vice President Stephanie provides thorough, timely, and compelling analysis of housing, retail, office, industrial, and special purpose land uses to BAE clients. Her work throughout both northern and southern California puts her at the cutting edge of market trends and innovative policy solutions. Her recent affordable housing projects include completing Housing Element Updates for the cities of Milpitas and Concord, CA. For each Housing Element, Stephanie prepared updated data and analysis of

housing needs, analyzed potential housing development sites, and presented findings to community meetings and City Council. She also completed the City of Napa’s Analysis of Impediments to Fair Housing as well as its Consolidated Plan. She led the analysis for the City of Berkeley’s Nexus Study to examine increasing its in-lieu housing fees. Stephanie has supported numerous TOD plans throughout Northern California, including plans for the City of Berkeley’s Adeline Corridor, Walnut Creek’s West Downtown, Larkspur’s SMART Station, South San Francisco Downtown, and the Suisun Downtown/Amtrak Station area. For each plan, Stephanie conducted market analysis for a wide range of uses, assessed affordable housing needs, and formulated financing strategies for public improvements. Stephanie has also developed strong expertise in local fiscal impact analysis. She led all the technical work for major the Facebook headquarters campus and a new SRI corporate headquarters, both for the City of Menlo Park, CA. Prior to joining BAE, Stephanie worked as a planner for Suisun City, CA, and as a housing analyst for the City of Berkeley, CA. Stephanie holds an MCP with a concentration in Housing and Economic Development from UC Berkeley, and a BA in Psychology from UC San Diego.

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Josh Rohmer, MPL, Vice President Josh Rohmer leads BAE’s Southern California practice from BAE’s Los Angeles office. Josh brings 12 years of experience in the public sector, working in urban planning, redevelopment and real estate asset management with an emphasis on community revitalization and public benefits to BAE’s engagements. Josh is currently leading BAE’s engagement for the City of Long Beach to determine market drivers, project future hotel demand, and develop a policy to incentivize hotel investment. Josh is also leading the preparation of market analyses for retail, office, and mixed-use projects near Wilshire Boulevard transit stations for the Los Angeles

Department of City Planning. Other recent experience includes analyzing opportunities to work with private partners to construct and operate recreational facilities as part of a new San Diego De Anza Cove Park Master Plan, and evaluating the feasibility of development proposals for LA Metro property near transit stations. Prior to joining BAE, Josh worked for the City of Los Angeles where he was the initial member of the City’s newly-formed Asset Management Strategic Planning unit, created to leverage the City’s real estate assets for public benefits including affordable housing, economic development, recreational space, and community services. Josh developed the City’s adopted framework to identify and evaluate City-owned real estate assets for redevelopment and re-use, and led efforts to develop a Master Plan and financing strategy to redevelop the Civic Center area. He was the City Administrative Officer’s lead on creating financing strategies for the LA River Ecosystem Restoration project with the US Army Corps of Engineers, and for the acquisition of a key, 40-acre riverside parcel from Union Pacific Railroad. With the Community Redevelopment Agency of the City of Los Angeles, Josh’s planning efforts to revitalize commercial corridors focused on identification of catalytic investment opportunities, streetscape improvement programs, and development of loan programs for façade and capital improvements for commercial retail and industrial businesses. In the BioMed Focus Area and CleanTech Corridor, he led urban planning strategies to revitalize two of the City’s centrally-located but under-improved industrial areas for next-generation, job-rich industries. Josh received a Master’s in Planning from the University of Southern California, with a specialization in Transportation and Land Use, and a Bachelor of Arts in Media Studies from the University of Arizona.

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Jessica Hitchcock, MCP, Vice President Jessica specializes in affordable housing, financial analysis, and economic development. She has advanced skills in GIS, cash flow and pro forma analysis, and survey research. Jessica’s economic development work spans strategic economic development plans for Santa Cruz County and Colma, CA, to project-based analyses for business attraction/retention at the NASA Research Park. Jessica has worked extensively in TOD strategic planning and feasibility analysis, including policies to incentivize TOD in Charleston

(NC), St. Louis Metro (KN and MO), and Oakland CA. She has deep expertise in mixed use pro forma analysis, including financial analysis for the Port of San Francisco on Pier 38, Pier 29, and the AC34 legacy real estate portfolio. Jessica also has extensive experience in fiscal impact and public financing strategies, including analysis of San Francisco’s transportation funding options for Caltrain, a key commuter rail system for the Bay Area. She has analyzed fiscal impacts for tech headquarters in Silicon Valley, and supported business planning for GGNRA during the AC34 fast-track approval process. Jessica is also expert in directing and preparing market studies for retail, office, housing, and special purpose uses throughout the US. Prior to joining BAE, Jessica worked in Brooklyn, NY as a project manager for Ridgewood Bushwick Senior Citizens Council, a non-profit housing developer. During her tenure, she managed development of over 500 units of affordable housing. She also worked for the City of Oakland, where she administered over $2 M of revitalization grant funds to small businesses. Jessica earned a BS in Business Administration from the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, and an MCP from UC Berkeley.

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Aaron Barker, MPL, Associate Aaron provides market, feasibility, and economic development analyses for BAE projects across Southern California. For Los Angeles County’s forthcoming West Carson TOD Specific Plan, Aaron analyzed the economic feasibility of new market-rate and affordable housing across a wide range of land use and development types. He has also evaluated several joint development proposals for mixed-use affordable housing projects located along the Metro Gold Line in Boyle Heights. In addition, Aaron played a key role in supporting the City of LA's Affordable Housing Linkage Fee Nexus Study.

Prior to joining BAE, Aaron worked for the Office of the Mayor in the Infrastructure Services department. As part of the mayor’s team, he provided research and analysis to assess the potential for leveraging new public finance tools--including EIFDs--to fund improvements in green infrastructure and affordable housing. In addition, he has launched several retail attraction and revitalization efforts as a Program Manager for Business Improvement Districts across New York City. He has also worked for JP Morgan Chase and Conde Nast as an editor and content strategist. Aaron earned a BA in International Studies from the University of Washington, as well as a Master of Planning (MPL) with a focus in Economic Development and Real Estate from the University of Southern California (USC). Chelsea Guerrero, MCP, Associate

Chelsea brings a strong background in community and economic development to BAE. She is familiar with econometric statistical modeling and has experience conducting in-depth analyses for regional and equity policy planning. At BAE, Chelsea has performed technical research and prepared written reports for public distribution on topics related to fiscal impacts, real estate market analysis, and community development. Her recent projects at BAE include market analyses for the cities of Milpitas and San Ramon and fiscal impact analyses for the cities of Menlo Park, Gilroy, and Vallejo.

Prior to her tenure at BAE, Chelsea worked for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) on the Regional Prosperity Plan, a three-year regional planning initiative funded by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Her work on that project included supporting a sub-grant program that provided more than 50 sub-grants to community-based and non-profit organizations across the Bay Area.

Chelsea has earned a BA in Political Economy, a BA in Geography, and an MCP with a concentration in Housing and Economic Development from UC Berkeley.

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Amanda Wallace, MUP, Associate Amanda is an Associate in BAE’s Sacramento Region office, where she provides high quality research and analytical support for BAE’s full range of consulting assignments. Amanda’s recent experience includes conducting demographic and economic trends analysis and real estate market research for the Grover Beach Economic Development Plan, Stockton General Plan Update, Lakeport Lakefront Revitalization Plan, Brentwood Priority Area 1 Specific Plan, and the Downtown Sacramento Specific Plan. She has conducted financial feasibility analysis for mixed-use development, prepared fiscal analyses in support of long-range

planning projects, and conducted research on central city development and urban housing trends in six U.S. cities. Amanda has also prepared community investment profiles for metropolitan areas throughout California on behalf of a major bank. Prior to joining BAE, Amanda worked for the City of Berkeley and the City of Menlo Park. In Berkeley, Amanda worked in the Current Planning Division, where she analyzed development applications and supported the Zoning Adjustment Board. In Menlo Park, her work included supporting the Economic Development Plan Update, managing vibrancy enhancement programs such as the Santa Cruz Avenue Street Café pilot program, and providing research and analysis for City policies and reports. Through this experience, she gained firsthand knowledge of planning processes and their impact on economic development. Amanda earned a certificate in GIS from American River College, a BA in History from Sonoma State University, and a Master in Urban Planning with a concentration in Community and Economic Development from San Jose State University. Matt Fairris, Analyst

Matt Fairris is an Analyst in BAE’s Sacramento Region office, where he provides research and analytical support for BAE’s consulting assignments. His recent experience includes data collection and analysis for the Sacramento Downtown Specific Plan, General Plan updates in the cities of Stockton and Eureka, workforce housing needs assessments for San Mateo County and the Truckee-North Tahoe region, a commercial land use inventory for El Dorado County, and an alternatives analysis for

reuse of the Sacramento-Placerville Transportation Corridor, as well as a series of annual citywide apartment vacancy and rental rate surveys conducted on behalf of UC Davis. For Yolo County, Matt researched operating and maintenance costs as part of a feasibility study for a new parkway system of more than 1,600 acres. Matt also contributed to the analysis of two

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proposed Innovation Parks in the City of Davis, and a business incubator feasibility study for the City of Eureka. He also conducts demographic and economic analysis in the preparation of community investment profiles for major metropolitan areas throughout California on behalf of a major bank. Prior to joining BAE, Matt earned his BS in Environmental Policy Analysis and Planning from UC Davis. As a student he provided research assistance for the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies, where he helped conduct the 2013 UC Davis Campus Travel Survey and assisted with the Fifth Street/Russell Boulevard road diet. Following graduation, Matt also interned with the Yolo County Transportation District, where he helped plan for additional transit service within the City of Davis and assisted in the development of the Yolo County Short Range Transit Plan. Denim Ohmit, Analyst

Denim Ohmit is an Analyst in BAE's San Francisco office, where he provides research and analytical support to consulting assignments. His experience includes data collection and analysis for general plan updates, and retail strategies. He recently completed a case study analysis of public-private partnership structures for recreational facilities. Prior to joining BAE, Denim was an inaugural Urban Justice Design Fellow at the Dellums Institute for Social Justice, where he researched and analyzed policies to address the displacement of small businesses and non-profit organizations in Alameda County. He

was also a Matsui Local Government Fellow in the San Francisco Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development and a leader in the Associated Students of the University of California. Denim is completing a BA in Urban Studies with minors in Public Policy and Geospatial Information Science from UC Berkeley, where he is a 2016-17 Urban Equity Student Fellow.