Background:Project Background * Work Statement * Relevance Study Area Methodology:Past Studies Data...
32
Great Lakes Sensitivity To Paleo- Great Lakes Sensitivity To Paleo- Climatic Forcing Climatic Forcing Background: Project Background * Work Statement * Relevance Study Area Methodology: Past Studies Data Preparation *? Actual Data Adjustments * Modeling Procedure *? Models: Hydrology Model Lake Thermodynamic Model Water Balance and Routing * Hypsometric Relations and Outflow Equations * Validation: Interdependent Lakes: Base Case vs. Historical * NBS, Levels, & Channel Flows for whole system * * * Terminal Lakes: Split System & Replace St. Clair Equation * Consider removal of present-day diversions Look @ independent lakes NBS only (upstream lakes terminal) * NBS climate summary * Outline
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Transcript of Background:Project Background * Work Statement * Relevance Study Area Methodology:Past Studies Data...
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Background: Project Background *Work Statement *RelevanceStudy Area
Methodology: Past StudiesData Preparation *?Actual Data Adjustments *Modeling Procedure *?
Models: Hydrology ModelLake Thermodynamic ModelWater Balance and Routing *Hypsometric Relations and Outflow Equations *
Validation: Interdependent Lakes: Base Case vs. Historical *NBS, Levels, & Channel Flows for whole system * * *
Terminal Lakes: Split System & Replace St. Clair Equation *Consider removal of present-day diversionsLook @ independent lakes NBS only (upstream
lakes terminal) *NBS climate summary *Look @ interdependent lakes: Outflow climate
summary *Lake Level summary * *
Outline
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Background
Great Lakes in terminal state about 9000 years agoHypothesize climate caused thisUnderstand extremes of climate closing Great LakesNSF proposal with 13 others funded late last year
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Background
Great Lakes in terminal state about 9000 years agoHypothesize climate caused thisUnderstand extremes of climate closing Great LakesNSF proposal with 13 others funded late last year
Work -- Simulate Great Lakes hydrology under various climates
Use GLERL’s AHPSincludes basin hydrology, overlake precipitation, lake thermodynamics, channel
routingused in climate change impact studies for EPA, IJC, NOAA, & IJC
Adjust lake & connecting channel conditionsoutlets with “natural” outflow-elevation relationships and connecting channelsremove French River watersheduse dynamic areas in evaporationremove existing diversions & consumptions
Use similar methodology herepropose climate characteristics compatible with geologic evidence or GCM
simulationsmodify meteorological record to reflect proposed climate changessimulate resulting hydrology & compare to base case
Build WWW interface of project results for other researchers & public
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Work (continued)
Model entire interdependent system (Georgian Bay draining into St. Clair)
Model two systems independentlyLakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Georgian Bay (used to drain to Hudson
Bay) Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario (no inflow from above)
Look at steady-state closed lakeSteady-state (repeat adjusted meteorological record with initial conditions =
ending)Sufficient to use zero outflow and look at climates giving levels below sill
a) Superior terminal?b) Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay terminal, given Superior terminal?c) Erie terminal?d) Ontario terminal, given Erie terminal?
Relax constraint of upstream terminal lakes.
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Relevance
Increase understanding of Great Lakes sensitivity to climate changePreviously, lake changes attributed to isostatic rebound & shifts in outlet elevationNew findings suggest climate shifts
Understand climate change impacts today
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Study Area
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Great Lakes have tremendous water & heat storage capacities
Early Great Lakes Climate Change Impact Studies used simple constant changes in air temperature or precipitation in water balances GCMs simulate current & 2xCO2 conditions GCMs used for transient increases of greenhouse gases EPA in 1984 used hydrology components of GCMs to assess water availability
Recent Similar Great Lakes Climate Change Impact Studies GLERL-EPA 2xCO2 impacts (1989) GLERL-IJC 2xCO2 impacts (1992)
US National Assessment in Great Lakes (1999) Transposed Climate impacts (1998)
Past Studies
IJC LOSLR Regulation study (2004)
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Climate Data models use daily data 1948—1999 ~1800 stations for overland meteorology ~40 stations for overlake meteorology Thiessen-averaged over 121 subbasins & 7 lakes
Changed Climate “base case” scenario apply ratios & differences to historical data
Data Preparation
use with models to calculate climate change scenario
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Actual Data Adjustments
1.0
Precipitation Ratio, R
Ad
just
ed
Va
po
r P
ress
ure
, V’,
@ T
’ d
actual pressure,V, @ Td
adjusted saturation, V’s, @ T’a
V‘ = V * R
adjust humidity deficit
adjust actual humidity
“if twice as wet, then half as dry”“if half as wet, then half as wet”
V‘ = V’s - (V’s - V) / R
P’ = P * R
T’ = T + D
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Arbitrary initial conditions used with 2-yr initialization simulation periodEstimate “steady-state” conditions
repeat 52-yr simulation with initial conditions equal to end values, until unchangingSimulate with models on adjusted data sets for all scenarios (including base case)121 watersheds and 7 lakesInterpret differences between scenarios & base case as hydrology impacts
Modeling Procedure
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OVER-ICE EFFECTS OVER-WATER EFFECTS
LAKE-ICE FLUX
ATMOSPHERE-ICE FLUX ATMOSPHERE-LAKE FLUX
OVER-LAKE METEOROLOGY
AIR TEMPERATURE, WIND SPEED, HUMIDITY, PRECIPITATION, CLOUD COVER
OVER-ICE METEOROLOGY
SURFACE FLUX PROCESSES ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
BULK TRANSFER COEFFICIENTS AERODYNAMIC EQUATION
LATENT HEAT FLUX
NET LONGWAVE RADIATION
SHORT WAVE
RADIATION
REFLECTION ADVECTION SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX
ENERGY BALANCE SUPERPOSITION MIXING
MASS BALANCE ENERGY BALANCE
DEPTH-TEMPERATURE PROFILE
HEAT IN STORAGE
ICE COVER
SURFACE TEMPERATURE
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NBS Adjustment
LB
B L
P pA
AR r A A
A A
E eA
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Hypsometric Relations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Are
a (1
03 k
m2
)
-200 -100 0 100 200
SUP
MIC
HUR
GEO
STC
ERI
ONT
Elevation (m)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-200 -100 0 100 200V
olum
e (k
m3
)
SUP
MIC
HUR
GEO
STC
ERI
ONT
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LAKE SUPERIOR
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
GEORGIAN BAY
LAKE ST. CLAIR
LAKE
ERIE LAKE
ONTARIO
RUNOFF
PRECIP. PRECIP.
PRECIP.
PRECIP.
PRECIP.
PRECIP.
EVAP.
EVAP. EVAP.
EVAP. EVAP.
EVAP.
EVAP.
RUNOFF
OGOKI & LONG LAC DIVERSION
PRECIP.
WELLAND CANAL
RUNOFF
RUNOFF
RUNOFF RUNOFF
RUNOFF
CHICAGO DIVERSION
Integrated System
St. Mary’s River
St. Clair River
Detroit River
Niagara River
St. Lawrence River
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0
500
1000
15000
500
1000
1500
0
500
1000
1500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Superior
Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay
Erie
Ontario
Ne
t Ba
sin
Su
pp
ies
(mm
ove
r la
ke s
urf
ace
)HistoricalModeled
NBS
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173
175
177
179
181
183
185
73
75
77
79
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
HistoricalModeled
Superior
Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay
St. Clair
Ontario
Erie
Stil
l-W
ate
r L
ake
Le
vel (
m)
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1000
2000
3000
4000
4000
5000
6000
7000
4000
5000
6000
7000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
HistoricalModeled
Riv
er
Flo
w (
m3 s
-1)
St. Clair River
St. Marys River
Detroit River
Niagara River
St. Lawrence River
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173
175
177
179
181
183
185
HistoricalBase Case Scenario (0%, 0oC)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Wa
ter
Le
vel (
m)
Lake Superior
Lake Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay
Matching MHG Historical Water Balance
For Superior: QS = 824.721 (ES – 181.425)1.5
For Mic-Hur-Geo: QMHG = 185 (EMHG – 166.549)1.5
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Negligible Diversions
Great Lake
Diversion Amount Superior Mich-Hur Erie Ontario
(m3s-1) (cm) (cm) (cm) (cm)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Ogoki-Long Lac 160 +6 +11 +8 +7
Chicago 90 -2 -6 -4 -3
Welland 270 -2 -5 -13 0
COMBINED +2 -1 -10 +2
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S2 – S1 = Inflow + NBS – Outflow
NBS
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50403020100
5
4
3
2
1
0
800
700
600
500
400
300
100
0
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
Precipitation Drop (%)
NB
S = 200 m
m
Lake Superior
50403020100
5
4
3
2
1
0
800
700
600
500
400
300
100
0
900
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
Precipitation Drop (%)
NB
S = 200 m
m
Lake Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay
Steady-State NBS As a Function of Climate
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50403020100
5
4
3
2
1
0Te
mp
era
ture
Ris
e (o
C)
Precipitation Drop (%)
Lake Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay
18001600
14001200
1000
800
600O
utflow = 400 m
m200
0
50403020100
5
4
3
2
1
0
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
Precipitation Drop (%)
Lake Superior
800
700
600
500
400
300
100
0
Outflow
= 200 mm
2000
Steady-State Outflow As a Function of Climate
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Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of Climate
182.4
182.2
182.8
182.6
183.2
183.0
180160
140120all levels < sill
all levels > sill
Lake Superior (average elevations in m)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
Precipitation Drop, %
160
150
174
173
172
171
170
169
175
176
all levels < sill
all levels > sill
Lake Mich.-Hur. (average elevations in m)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
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Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of Climate
Terminal Lake Climates:
Superior, 4.7 T + P > 60; Michigan-Huron, 4.5 T + P > 63182.4
182.2
182.8
182.6
183.2
183.0
180160
140120all levels < sill
all levels > sill
Lake Superior (average elevations in m)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
Precipitation Drop, %
160
150
174
173
172
171
170
169
175
176
all levels < sill
all levels > sill
Lake Mich.-Hur. (average elevations in m)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
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Steady-State Outflows As a Function of Climate
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5
4
3
2
1
0
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
Precipitation Drop (%)
Lake Superior
800
700
600
500
400
300
100200
Outflow
= 0 mm
50403020100
5
4
3
2
1
0Te
mp
era
ture
Ris
e (o
C)
Precipitation Drop (%)
Lake Michigan-Huron
18001600
14001200
1000
800
600
400
200
2000
Outflow
=0 m
m
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165
170
175
180
185
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0%, 0oC
0%, 0oC
10%, 0oC
10%, 0oC
0%, 2oC
0%, 2oC
10%, 2oC
10%, 2oC
20%, 2oC
20%, 2oC
20%, 0oC
20%, 0oC
30%, 2oC
30%, 2oC
30%, 0oC0%, 4oC
0%, 4oC
10%, 4oC
10%, 4oC
20%, 4oC
20%, 4oC
30%, 4oC
30%, 4oC
40%, 4oC
40%, 4oC
40%, 2oC40%, 0oC
40%, 0oC
50%, 2oC50%, 0oC
50%, 0oC
30%, 2oC
40%, 2oC
50%, 2oC 50%, 4o
Steady-State NBS As a Function of Climate
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100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
40%, 5oC
50%, 5oC
50%, 4oC
50%, 3oC
50%, 5oC
50%, 4oC
50%, 3oC
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Steady-State NBS As a Function of Climate
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Steady-State Climate Range
SUP
M-H
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Vol
ume
(km
3 )
-200 -100 0 100 200Elevation (m)
SUP
M-H
Are
a (1
03 k
m2 )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-200 -100 0 100 200
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Lower Great Lakes Without Upstream Inflows
For St. Clair: QC = 70.714 (EC – 165.953)2(EC – EE)0.5, EC > EE > 165.953
= 70.714 (EC – 165.953)2(EC – 165.953)0.5, EC > 165.953 > EE
For Erie:QE = 701.504 (EE – 169.938)1.5, EE > 169.938
For Ontario:QO = 577.187 (EO – 69.622)1.5, EO > 69.622
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80706050403020100
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
170.90
170.70
160
150
140
130
all levels > sill
all levels < sill
Lake Erie (average water level elevations in m)
80706050403020100
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
50
0
-50
71.5
71.0
70.5
Lake Ontario (average water level elevations in m)
all levels < sill
all levels > sill
approximately4.7 T + P > 51
approximately3.5 T + P > 71
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
Precipitation Drop, %
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
,oC
Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of Climate
Terminal Lake Climates:
Erie, 4.7 T + P > 51; Ontario, 3.5 T + P > 71
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Steady-State Outflows As a Function of Climate
80706050403020100
Outflow = 0 mm
100200300400500600700800900
interpolated from NBS sumfor Erie and St. Clair withrespect to temperature
interpolated from Erieoutflow with respect toprecipitation
Lake Erie
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
10
Precipitation Drop (%)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
TransitionZone
80706050403020100
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
interpolated fromNBS with respectto temperature
interpolated fromoutflow with respectto temperature
interpolated fromoutflow with respectto precipitation
Lake Ontario
100200
300400600800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
3000
Outflow = 0 mm
Precipitation Drop (%)
Tem
pe
ratu
re R
ise
(oC
)
TransitionZone
