Back to the Future: State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011 PREMIUM SPONSOR SPONSORS.
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Transcript of Back to the Future: State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011 PREMIUM SPONSOR SPONSORS.
Back to the Future:State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011
PREMIUM SPONSOR SPONSORS
2
• Market-wide, comprehensive survey of the OTC voluntary carbon markets
• Collected data from offset suppliers, registries and exchanges • Agnostic on credit quality• Tracks transacted credits as they pass hands in market – so
transaction volume, not market size • Another 261 suppliers did not transact credits in 2010, were
no longer selling voluntary carbon credits or were no longer in business.
This year, a record 284 respondents from 38 countries responded to our survey
3
34% of respondents from US, suppliers from developing countries doubled (2009: 29; 2010: 58)
US
UK
Can
ada
Aus
tral
ia
Ger
man
y
Bra
zil
Fra
nce
Mex
ico
Indi
a
Sw
itzer
land
Ital
y
Net
herla
nds
Chi
na
Gua
tem
ala
Sou
th A
fric
a
Japa
n
Tur
key
Chi
le
Bol
ivia
Irel
and
New
Zea
land
Pan
ama
Per
u
Sie
rra
Leon
e
Sin
gapo
re
Sw
eden
Uga
nda
Uru
guay
Por
tuga
l
Arg
entin
a
Col
ombi
a
Den
mar
k
Indo
nesi
a
Isra
el
Ken
ya
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mau
ritiu
s
Rep
ublic
of
K..
.
Not
Spe
cifie
d
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 94
2522
1812 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7
Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Survey Participant Location
4
Transaction volumes increased 34% in 2010
Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
pre-2002
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
180,000,000
200,000,000
43,930,141 10,676,503 6,497,386 10,270,208 10,846,916 17,508,684
45,057,834 60,948,800 54,783,797 68,727,363
- 2,251,400 1,446,800 10,272,400
22,937,500
69,236,800
41,417,000 1,609,400
- -
105,000.0
228,172.0
1,817,360
1,689,893
59124900
Exchanges (other) OTC CCX - single sale (outlier) CCX OTC
Historic Volume in the Voluntary Carbon MarketsMtCO2e
44
11 713 12
28
68
130
98
131
5Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Historic Value in the Voluntary Carbon MarketsMtCO2e
pre-2002
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
180,113,577 43,773,663 26,639,284 42,107,852 44,472,356 71,785,606
274,852,785
447,098,407 353,903,326
412,528,623
30526.6666666667
2552730.252928900.638278755
72354781.25
306719024
49824450191,220.0640500
1673787.46564303
11614584.5446271
10
OTC CCX - single sale (outlier) Exchanges (other) CCX OTC
Average OTC prices declined slightly to $6/tCO2e, 98% of value from OTC transactions
180
44 27 45 47 110
348
755
415424
6Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Historic Transacted and Retired VolumesMtCO2e
The main goal is credit retirement, which has largely stayed level since 2007
pre-2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
43,930,141
10,676,503 6,497,386
10,270,208 10,846,916 17,508,684
45,057,834
60,948,800 54,783,797
68,727,363
7,308,606 4,118,895 3,798,528 4,997,608 7,619,178 6,589,626
13,433,474 15,766,595 14,002,491 12,661,883
22528916.77521332080.042
26070444.0460553
31990920.9008774
Sold OTC Retired Proxy retirement figure
7Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Transaction Volume by Project Type
Land-based credits sequester 46% of OTC market share
29%
16%
11%6%
6%
6%
5%3%2%
2%2%
2%
11%
REDD/Avoided ConversionLandfill methaneWindAfforestation/ ReforestationRun-of-river hydroODS (US-based)Improved Forest ManagementAgricultural soil BiomassLivestock methaneForestry (general)Energy EfficiencyOther
Other - non-descript 3%
Wast water 2%
Fuel switching 1%
N2O 1%
12 types <1%
“other” land-based 1%
Large Hydro 1%
8Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Historic Transaction Volume by Forest Carbon Project Type
REDD methodologies closing gap on supply and demand for conservation projects
pre-2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Agro-forestry
Ag soil
IFM
AR
REDD
9Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Transaction Volume by Location and Project Type
Latin American forestry saw unrivaled growth09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10
US Latin America
Asia Europe (non-EU)
Africa Canada Oceania EU Not speci-fied
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
Other & mixed/ not specified
EE & Fuel-switching
Methane
Renewable energy
Forestry/ land-use
MtCO2e
10Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Transaction Volume by Vintage
Intensified demand for future vintages
pre-2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013; post-
2012 ('09 data)
2014 post-2014
0
3000000
6000000
9000000
12000000
15000000
415,057 352,976 503,2771,744,911
3,084,264
10,080,436
1,842,7881,541,943699,951
1,947,531 1,333,100 461,838
1,250,570 1,471,346 2,709,690
4,909,948
11,740,351
4,501,025 3,385,904 2,934,931
1,663,156
3,166,052
MtCO2e
11Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Market Share by Standard
REDD stacked the odds in favor of VCS and CCB Standards
34%
19%16%
8%
5%
3%3%
2%2%
9%
Verified Carbon Standard (VCS)
Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standard (CCB)
Climate Action Reserve (CAR)
Gold Standard
BMV Standard
Forest Carbon Standard International
Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
American Carbon Registry (ACR)
ISO-14064
Other
Other - non-descript 6%
Plan Vivo 1%
CDM 1%
8 stds < 0.1%NZ PFSI 0.3%
SOCIALCARBON 1%
12Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Average Price by Standard
Credit prices highly stratified across (and within) standards
US$/tCO2e
VE
R+
Gre
enho
use
Frie
ndly
Car
bonF
ix
Inte
rnal
Gol
d S
tand
ard
Non
e
Gre
en-e
Clim
ate
CD
M
Pla
n V
ivo
NS
W G
GA
S
BM
V S
tand
ard
Oth
er
ISO
-140
64
FC
SI
Alb
erta
CA
R
SO
CIA
LCA
RB
ON
NZ
PF
SI
VC
S
EP
A C
L
CC
B
AC
R
CC
X
0
10
20
30
40
50
Volume-weighted average price Maximum transaction price Minimum transaction price
13Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PoAs and grouped project guidance a prominent feature of most major certification programs
Transaction Volume by PoA or Grouped Project Guidance Utilized
36%
24%
14%
6%
5%
5%5%
2% 0.02%
VCS Grouped project
BMV Standard
Other
ACR Guidelines
CCX Pooled project
GS PoA
CDM Large-scale PoA
CDM Small-scale PoA
Plan Vivo system
14Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Registry market share mirrored standard usage, with Markit still in the lead
Transaction Volume by Registry Utilized Registered vs. OTC Transacted Volumes
50%
17%
10%
8%
8%3%
2% 1% 1%
MarkitNYSE Blue VCSGS VER (NYSE Blue)CAR (NYSE Blue)CDC VCSACRCCXCDM/JIRemaining Markit NYSE
Blue VCS
GS VER (NYSE Blue)
CAR (NYSE Blue)
CDC VCS
ACR CCX CDM/JI -
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
14,153,484
8,951,193
2,678,915
7,890,136 4,262,637
0.2 948,479 0
21,631,713
7,560,352 4,372,303 3,555,284 3,406,490
1,355,000 929,819 0.4
Registered Sold
15Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Mostly voluntary buyers for-profit, motivated by credit retirement – led by the EU
Transaction Volume by Type of Buyer Transaction Volume by Customer Location
44%
22%
19%
5%
3% 1% 1% 1% 0.5%3%
Business-for-profit (retirement, voluntary)
Business-for-profit (resale to voluntary buyers)
Business-for-profit (end-use, pre-com-pliance motive)
Business, for-profit (motivation unknown)
Business-for-profit (resale to pre-com-pliance buyers)
Individuals (retirement)
NGOs/ non-profit organization (retirement)
Governments (retirement, voluntary)
NGOs/ non-profit organization (resale)
Other/ not specified
41%
37%
8%
5%4%
2%1%0%
EUUSLatin America AsiaCanadaOceaniaEurope (non-EU, incl. Turkey)Africa (incl. Egypt)
16Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Voluntary carbon market participants “cautiously optimistic” about 2011 and beyond
Supplier-Projected Market Growth for the Voluntary Carbon Markets
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,800,000,000
Historic Growth Projected Growth (by 2008 participants)
Projected Growth (by 2007 participants) Projected Growth (by 2009 participants)
Projected Growth (by 2010 participants)
MtCO2e