AWE SOLAR ENERGY CONFERENCEawenergy.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AWE-SolarEnergyConf-LC… ·...
Transcript of AWE SOLAR ENERGY CONFERENCEawenergy.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AWE-SolarEnergyConf-LC… ·...
UTILITY SCALE SOLAR IN ERCOT
AWE SOLAR ENERGY CONFERENCE
May 24, 2016
CONFIDENTIAL COMPETITIVE ELECTRIC INFORMATION
ERCOT Fuel Mix – As of May 2016
Source:ERCOT May2016GridcapacityReport:http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource
Utility Solar Capacity – As of May 2016
Source:ERCOT May2016GridcapacityReport:http://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/resource
Key Drivers to Utility Scale Solar Development
• Significant Capital Cost Improvements– 2015 Utility Grade Solar PPA national cost averages: $36.6 to $38.7
Per MW. – Some suggest 20-30% cost reduction through 2018 is achievable
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Solar Power Installed Cost Projections
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SourcesandNotes:HistoricalPVcosts:reportedcostsfromNRELandmedianfromLBNL;Forecasts:ERCOT2016LTSABaseCase;NREL
Key Drivers to Utility Scale Solar Development
• ITC Extension and Tax Incentives– UBS projects the next “cycle” in solar procurement in 2019 timeframe
• Power Prices and PPAs– Lower natural gas prices– Demand and Supply Forecasts (Coal Retirements)– Wind penetration– Congestion/location
• Technology Advancements• DG becoming increasingly dominant• Environmental and Regulatory Changes• Solar Performance
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Appendix
CONFIDENTIAL COMPETITIVE ELECTRIC INFORMATION
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SolarPowerTypes
Source:UBSInvestmentResearchQReport6/3/15:DoesthefutureofsolarbelongwithUtilities? ANALYSTCERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE 87.
SNL:SEIA:http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2014-q4
1. Residential/Commercial– CommonlyreferredtoasrooftoporDGsolar,generallybetween5kwand250kw,andinstalledatpointofuse
2. CommunitySolar– Loadcentralizedinstallationsbelow5MW/60kVAdistributionandisgenerallyconsideredDistributedGeneration
3. UtilityScaleSolar– Systemsabove10MWandisnotconsideredDistributedGeneration