AUTOMOTIVE THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITES . . . … 2009/composites09c.pdf · automotive thermoplastic...

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AUTOMOTIVE THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITES . . . INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES RESPOND TO A GLOBAL RECESSION Management DECISIONS ANALYSIS MARKET ECONOMIC TECHNICAL Robert Eller Associates LLC CONSULTANTS TO THE PLASTICS AND RUBBER INDUSTRIES PRESENTED BY: Bob Eller Robert Eller Associates LLC Phone: 001-330-670-9566 E-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.robertellerassoc.com PREPARED FOR: SPE AUTOMOTIVE COMPOSITES CONFERENCE DETROIT, MI SEPTEMBER 15, 2009 b/mydox/papers/composites 09b.ppt

Transcript of AUTOMOTIVE THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITES . . . … 2009/composites09c.pdf · automotive thermoplastic...

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 11

AUTOMOTIVE THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITES . . .INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES

RESPOND TO A GLOBAL RECESSION

ManagementDECISIONSANALYSIS

MARKET

ECONOMIC

TECHNICAL

Robert Eller Associates LLCCONSULTANTS TO THE PLASTICS AND RUBBER INDUSTRIES

PRESENTED BY:

Bob EllerRobert Eller Associates LLCPhone: 001-330-670-9566E-mail: [email protected] site: www.robertellerassoc.com

PREPARED FOR:

SPE AUTOMOTIVE COMPOSITES CONFERENCEDETROIT, MI

SEPTEMBER 15, 2009b/mydox/papers/composites 09b.ppt

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 22

• Robert Eller Associates LLC is a global plastics consulting company providing analysis in support of technical, marketing, and economic strategic management decision-making

• Based in Akron, Ohio, with offices in Paris, Shanghai, New Zealand• Asia: Active in China, India, Middle East • Key Focus Areas: Thermoplastic Composites, TPEs, ETPs,

Polyolefins, Automotive, Compounding, and Foams • Multiclient studies:

– China TPE Market– North America/Europe TPE Market

• Single-client decision support analyses • Mergers and Acquisitions:

– Complete management service for small acquisitions– Due diligence support– Technical advisors

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• Global Macroeconomic Situation/Automotive Impacts

• Fuel Price/Vehicle Sales/Electric Battery/Thermoplastic Composite (TPC) Relationships

• Automotive Supply Chain Responses

• TPCs in the Automotive Market

• Paths to the TPC Market

• TPC Materials/Fabrication Technology Responses and Applications

• Future Vision/Summary

3

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

THE FAMILIES OF AUTOMOTIVE THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITES

AUTO TP COMPOSITES

MINERAL FILLED

(a)

PARTICLE

MICRO(b)

NANO

CARBON

FIBERS

NANO TUBES

SHORT GLASS (SGF)

GLASS REINFORCED BIOPOLYMERS AND NATURAL FIBER

GMT(s-GMT)

MATRIX FIBERS

NATURAL SYNTHETIC

LONGGLASS (LGF)

MAT(GMT)

Notes:(a) Talc, mica, basalt, etc.(b) Micro-talcs opening new applications (e.g., exterior panels, hatchback

on Ford Kuga) SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009 r/mydox/papers/composites09.ppt

MAIN TARGET FOR THIS PRESENTATION LW-GMT

(LW-RT)

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 5

MACROECONOMIC SITUATION/AUTOMOTIVE IMPACTS

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 66

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: 2 YEAR TROUGH

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010SOURCE: IMF

b/mydox/rapra 2008/rapra 2008.xls

AN

N. %

CH

AN

GE

(AT

PPP)

ADV. ECON.EMERG. ECON. WORLD

SOURCE: IMFB/mydox/papers/jec09.ppt

?

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 7

• Global GDP slowdown – 2-year trough in West • Slowed (but continued high) growth in Asia (esp. China) • Auto overcapacity in West: Europe/U.S. have 53% of

global auto capacity; 12% of global population • Petrodollar export concerns:

- substantial alternative energy investments (esp. battery/electric drive programs)

- CAFE rise in U.S. (still lagging other major nations)• Wage deflation/high unemployment• Cash for Clunkers type programs stimulated US/Europe

vehicle demand but will likely negatively impact 2010 sales

• U.S. credit lockdown (despite stimulus) erosion of consumer purchasing power

• OEM market share shift (especially in N. America) • China stimulus package (higher % of GDP), more

effective than Western stimulus packages

MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS ON GLOBAL AUTO MARKETS

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

GLOBAL VEHICLE SALES PROJECTION

8

GLOBAL VEHICLE SALES OUTLOOK

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009r/mydox/Auto Industry/Global Ind Volume TW 081209.xls

VEH

ICLE

SA

LES,

MM

UN

ITS

42% IN 15 EMERGING MARKETS; 58% IN EUROPE/U.S./JAPAN Annual Growth1990-2000 2.4%2000-2005 3.6%2005-2015 1.3%

2000: 57

2015: 77?2009:

9% DECLINE FOLLOWED BY RECOVERY IN

2010/2011

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U.S. AND EUROPE LIGHT VEHICLE SALES

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

SOURCE: DEUTSCHE BANK, 2009B/mydox/auto industry/NA and EUR sales.xls

SALE

S, M

M U

NIT

S

U.S.EUROPE

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GLOBAL REGION MARKET SHIFT IS UNDER WAY

LOCATION 2009 YTD SALES GROWTH/DECLINE

Europe* -18%N. America* -26%

Japan* -21%Brazil + 5%India + 5%China +42%

* = Mature markets represent 51% of global sales

Source: Robert Eller Associates LLC, 2009

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W . E U R O P E A N V E H IC L E M A R K E T S H A R E S H IF T

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

A/B C /D

F L E E T M A R K E T S E G M E NTb / myd o x / jec 0 9 / eur o mix shif t .x ls

SALE

S SH

AR

E, %

2 0 0 52 0 0 9 (E S T )

S o u rce s: JD P o w e r; D e u tsch e B an k; R o b e r t E lle r Asso c. L L C , 2009

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U.S. FUEL ECONOMY OBJECTIVES: MINIMAL, BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT FLEET MIX & MATERIALS SELECTION IMPLICATIONS

AVERAGE FLEET FUEL ECONOMY BY GLOBAL REGION

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2006 2010 2014 2020

SOURCE: PEW CENTER, 2008b/mydox/papers/RAPRA TPE 08-AvgFleetFuelEcon 08.xls

MPG

JAPANEUCHINAAUSTRALIAUSU.S. CAFE LAG CONTINUES

SOURCE: PEW CENTER, 2008

HIGHER CAFE DRIVES COMPOSITES TECH.

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• There are fuel price tipping points shifts in vehicle preference• 2008: $3.50-4.00/gal. 100BN fewer miles driven in U.S.• Price will rise and change auto and autoplastics paradigms:

- rising demand/decreasing capacity- economic expansion (eventually)- global population jump by 1.0BN in next 12 years- “middle” class increase by 1.8BN (600MM in China) - U.S.: 750 cars/1,000 peopleChina: 4 cars/1,000 people – If Chinese ½ownership rate of the U.S., adds 400MM cars

- easy-to-get oil has gotten harder to find- gas taxes in U.S. (remain constant at $0.18/gal.?)

• Plug-in hybrids: emerging, bridge to a (composite intensive) electric car/alternative propulsion world

• Global Li-ion auto battery sales will jump from $12BN in 2010 to $35BN in2015

FUEL PRICES: THERMOPLASTIC COMPOSITE EFFECTS

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 14

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLY CHAIN RESPONSES

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U.S. AUTOPLASTIC SUPPLY CHAIN PRESSURES/RESPONSES

GLOBALCOMPETITION

OFFSHORECOMPOUNDERS

ENTER

IMPORTEDCOMPETITORS/

SUPPLIERREDUCTION

OEM AGGRESSIVE SUPPLYCHAIN COST SAVE

PRESSURES

TECHNOLOGYTRANSFER

PRICECOMMODITIZATION

ELIMINATION OFEXTRA STEPS

U.S. TPCOMPOSITESTECHNOLOGY

LAG vs. EUROPE

RAW MATERIALS COMPOUNDER TIER 1 FABRICATOR OEM ASSEMBLY

TIER 2, 3SUPPLIERS

OEM OWNERSHIPSHIFT(b)

BANKRUPTCIES

SUPPLY CHAIN GLOBALIZATION

GLOBAL VEHICLE DESIGNS

VEHICLE DEMAND SLOWDOWN

SPECIFICATIONS

GLOBALIZATION PRESSURES

INCREASED EUROPEAN/JAPANESE INFLUENCE

- MULTIPLE UNIT OPERATIONS- EXCESSIVE LOGISTICS- SCRAP GENERATION

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009r/mydox/papers/Comp09-Implosion 071309.vsd // lg/myfiles/visio/Comp09-Implosion 071309.vsd

PRESSURES PASSED DOWN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

NOTES:(a) STARTED FOR LGF-TPs(b) e.g., MAGNA, BID FOR OPEL, FIAT/CHRYSLER, ETC.

- RESIN SUPPLIER SHIFT TO LOW COST MONOMER REGIONS- REDUCED SERVICE FOR AUTO ACCOUNTS

IN-LINE (D-LFT)COMP'DG. BY

TIER 1s(a)

TRANS-GLOBAL OEMPARTNERING

SHIFT TOEUROPEAN/

ASIANDESIGNS

SHIFT TOSMALLERVEHICLES

SEVEREPRODUCTION

DECLINE

- INEFFICIENT PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES- SALES/MARKETING COSTS- EXCESS LABOR COSTS

ELIMINATE/REDUCE THE INEFFICIENCIES:

BANKRUPTCIES

HYBRID ELECTRICDRIVE SHIFT

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 16

THE AUTOMOTIVE MARKETand

THERMOPLASTIC (TP) COMPOSITES

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GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS ON AUTO TP COMPOSITES

b/mydox/economics/Comp09-Global MacroEff09.vsd // lg/myfiles/visio/Comp09-Global MacroEff09.vsd

- SLOWED CAPITAL FOR NEW TP COMPOSITE TECHNOLOGY?- INCREASED GLOBAL PLATFORMS

GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC SITUATIONDEMAND SLOWDOWNBANKRUPTCIESBANK CRISIS

AUTOMOTIVE DEMAND- SEVERE DROP IN EUROPE/U.S.- SLOWED GROWTH IN EMERGING MARKETS (e.g., BRIC)

AUTOMOTIVE OEMs- PROFIT DECLINE- DEEPER COST CUTS- JOB CUTS- TRIM CAPITAL EXPENDITURES- REDUCE R/D- SEEK OEM PARTNER/ GLOBAL SYNERGIES- CONTINUED EMERGING MARKET INVESTMENT- RE-TOOL FOR SMALLER VEHICLES

GOVERNMENTSUBSIDIES/LOANS/ AIDPACKAGES

FLEETCOMPOSITION

SHIFT TOSMALLER CARS

FUEL ECONOMYAND ALTERNATE

ENERGYSUPPORT

VEHICLECOST

PRESSURES

SUPPLY CHAIN - BANKRUPTCY - RESTRUCTURE - GLOBALIZE

- IN-LINE COMPOUNDING- AT-PRESS COMPOUNDING- MULTI-SHOT PROCESSES- CAPTIVE COMP'DG. BY TIER 1s- PRESSURE ON INDEPENDENT COMPOUNDERS- SEEK NON-AUTO OPP'Y.

- INCREASED USE OF TP COMPOSITES- PART WEIGHT REDUCTION PRESSURES- PARTS CONSOLIDATION/MODULARIZATION- INCREASED VALUE OF $/LB. SAVED- ELECTRIC DRIVE/BATTERY INITIATIVES

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009

$18.5BNSUBSIDYREQUEST(REC'D.$5BN)(U.S.)

GDP DECLINECREDIT TIGHTENINGREDUCED PURCHASING POWER

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TP composite substitution driven by: • Supply chain restructuring • Weight save pressures (value weight savings [10%

weight reduction yields 7% fuel economy improvement])

• System cost savings potential/parts consolidation• Material cost savings for D-LFT vs. other LGF

processes • Green pressures and improved opportunities for

natural fiber and carbon fiber TP composites • Other plastic substitution (e.g., exteriors) stimulates

TP composites (e.g., hatchback inner panel)

AUTOMOTIVE MARKET DYNAMICS AND TP COMPOSITE SUPPLY CHAIN RESPONSES

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TP COMPOSITE TECHNOLOGY RESPONSES and OPPORTUNITIES

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

PATHS TO THE LGF-TP COMPOSITE MARKET

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009

1. COMPOUND:

COMPOUNDER INJECTION PRESS

IN-LINECOMPOUNDING

EXTRUDER

IN-LINECOMPOUNDING

EXTRUDER

COMPRESSIONPRESS

INJECTION PRESS

INJECTION PRESS

2. D-LFT:

3. LGF CONCENTRATE:

LGF COMPOUND MOLDED PART

ROVING

RESIN

ADDITIVES

MOLDED PART

CONCENTRATE

NEAT RESIN

MOLDED PART

4. GMT OR LW-RT:ROVING

MAT

NEAT RESIN

EXTRUDER PREHEATBLANKS MOLDED PARTCOMPRESSION

PRESS

r/mydox/papers/Comp09-LGFTP Comp Mkt 071309 // lg/myfiles/visio/Comp09-LGFTP Comp Mkt 071309

COMPOUNDING FACILITATED EARLY GROWTH OF LGF-TPs; DOES NOT REQUIRE CAPEX

HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL; CAPEX REQUIRED (FAVORED BY MAJOR TIER 1s); LARGE PARTS, HIGH VOLUME REQUIRED FORCOMPETITIVE ECONOMICS, GOOD FIBER LENGTH RETENTION

EARLY GMT BEING REPLACED BY HIGH QUALITY; LW-RT COMPETES WITH D-LFT IN UNDERBODY SHIELDS

USE EXISTING EQUIPMENT

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AUTO APPLICATIONS FOR TP COMPOSITES(a)APPLICATION STATUS / NOTE

Front end module/ carrier* (6-8)

- Major near-term D-LFT and LGF-PP pellet driver in N. American market

- Established in Europe Door hardware module* (7-8) - Facilitates strong trend towards hardware

consolidation- Brose is early leader

Instrument panel substrate* (7)

- Started in Europe (Faurecia and JCI)- Both D-LFT injection and compression

Underbody shield* (8) -W ill come from Europe with OEM transplants - LW-RT competes with D-LFT - Add-on acoustic layer being offered

Running board - Started in N. America Hatchback door* - 2012 Ford Escape (see Ford Kuga photo)

- Combination with talc/PP exteriorOverhead console/ Headliner structure

- Stimulated by changes in overhead design and construction

(Cont’d.)

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 2222

APPLICATION STATUS / NOTEInstrument panel structural ducts (15-18)

- Early Chrysler innovation (2007)(b)- Requires vibration welding

Load floor - Early GMT application Spare tire well/storage module* (9-10)

- Competes with SMC, GMT; natural fiber candidate?

Seating* - Competes with SGF-TPs Engine covers* - Starting in natural fiber composites in EuropeBattery carriers - Stimulated by trend to electric drive vehicles?Notes:

Numbers in ( ) indicate typical weights per vehicle

* = technology transfer from Europe

(a) Includes both LFTs and GMTs (b) First launched on ’97 MY Dakota and Cherokee

Sources: Dieffenbacher; Robert Eller Associates LLC

AUTO APPLICATIONS FOR TP COMPOSITES(a)(Cont’d.)

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

Source: Dieffenbacher

LFT-D-ILC COMPRESSION

Fully automated material handling

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

b/mydox/papers/composites09 KraussMaffei.ppt

Melt buffer

Shut-off nozzle

Re-direction valve

MX- or CX-clamp

Weighing, dosing &

conveying systems

Start up valve with container

Twin screw

extruder

Shot-Pot-Injection

piston

Source: Krauss Maffei

IMC Injection Molding Compounder

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Robert Eller Associates LLC

Plasticomp PushtrusionTM Direct In-Line Compounding

Source: PlastiComp

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 2626

LFT COMPOSITE OPPORTUNITY TARGETS

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009

INSTRUMENT PANEL XCARBEAM SUBSTRATE

STRUCTURAL DUCTS SEAT STRUCTURE(b)

HEADLINER (LW-RT)(a) HATCHBACKDOOR INNER

FENDER

FLOOR MODULE/LOAD FLOOR/

SPARE TIRE CARRIER

BUMPERBEAM

BUMPERBEAM

r/mydox/papers/Compo09-LFT Comp Oppy 09.vsd // lg/myfiles/visio/Compo09-LFT Comp Oppy 09.vsd

DOOR HARDWAREMODULE

UNDER BODYSHIELDS(a)(c)

ENGINE THERMALCONTROL*

FRONT END MODULE/CARRIER

NOTES: = HIGH PERFORMANCE MINERAL FILLED(a) MAY CONTAIN ADDED ACOUSTIC ELEMENTS(b) COMPETES WITH SGF-TP(c) D-LFT AND LW-RT COMPETE FOR UNDERBODY SHIELD

HATCHBACKDOOR OUTER* *

*

OVERHEAD CONSOLE/HEADLINER STRUCTURE

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 272727

•• FASCIAFASCIA

•• BUMPER BEAMBUMPER BEAM

•• ENERGY ABSORBERENERGY ABSORBER

•• CARRIERCARRIER

•• HOOD LATCH POINTHOOD LATCH POINT

•• RADIATOR/HEATRADIATOR/HEATEXCHANGERSEXCHANGERS

•• COOLING COOLING FANSFANS

FRONT END MODULES: PROVEN HIGH GROWTH TECH

SGF-PP CHALLENGING SGF-PA

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 282828

VEHICLE: Audi A3MATERIAL: 30% LGF-PPPROCESS: D-LFT (injection)WEIGHT: 3 kgEQUIPMENT: Krauss MaffeiPHOTO: Krauss Maffei

FRONT END CARRIERS: STRONG GROWTH DRIVER FOR D-LFT PROCESSES AND LGF-PP COMPOUND

VEHICLE: Ford FusionMATERIAL: 40% LGF-PPPROCESS: D-LFT (compression)EQUIPMENT: DieffenbacherPHOTO: Dieffenbacher

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• Established in Europe. Shifting to N. America. (German OEM shift accelerates N.A. penetration)

• Substitution driven by:- Component protection - Lithium-ion battery/electric drive share gain- Improved aerodynamics- Acoustics improvement (new target/value add zone)

• Many process/materials contenders:- GMT - LW-RT (lightweight GMT gaining share, approvals in

place)- LGF-PP pellets- D-LFT processes/examples (Compression, Injection, Krauss Maffei, PlastiComp PushtrusionTM, others)

- Aluminum, steel,thermoset composites

UNDERBODY PANELS

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 3030

UNDERBODY PANELS

Vehicle: BMW 7-SERIESPart: Underbody ShieldMaterial: 30% LGF-PPSupplier: SABIC - Stamax 30YK430Weight: 6.7 kg (total)Drivers: - Acoustics

- Aerodynamics- Component protection- Cost (vs. GMT)

Note: Most European BMW passenger cars have LW-RT UB shields

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EXAMPLE UNDERBODY SHIELD

Part: Typical underbody shieldProcess: D-LFT compressionEquipment: DieffenbacherMaterial: 25-30% LGF-PPNotes: - LW-RTP competes

- Acoustic function being added (e.g., by Rieter, Carcoustics, others)Photo: Dieffenbacher

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• Filled and fiber-reinforced TPs compete for substrate• LGF-PP pellets and D-LFT compete • Combo with 2-shot D-LFT molding saves unit operations• Integrated cross-car beam/structural duct potential • Example shown: Ford C-Max, Mazda 3, Volvo S40• Material supplier: Quadrant Plastic Composites AG• System supplier: Faurecia

INSTRUMENT PANEL CARRIER: GROWTH TARGET

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 33

SPARE TIRE WELL: SUBSTITUTION TARGET

Vehicle: Mercedes C-Class

Weight: 4.3 kgSubstitution drivers:

- Impact strength for crash resist.- Ability to integrate shape features - Corrosion resistance

Material: GMT-PP combination (random glass mat & fabric)

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Robert Eller Associates LLC 34

SPARE TIRE WELL: NATURAL FIBER TARGET

Vehicle: Mercedes A-Class

Material: Abaca fiber/PPSubstitution drivers:

- Good stiffness weight balance- Green solution- Energy saving (natural fiber vs. glass roving)

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Front

• LGF-PP• Front Door Carrier plate wt. = 1042 grams• Rear Door Carrier plate wt. = 670 grams

FORD FIESTA

Rear

DOOR HARDWARE MODULES: GROWTH APPLICATION

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DOOR HARDWARE MODULE: GROWTH APPLICATION

VEHICLE: Chrysler Sebring convertible MATERIAL: 40% LGF-PPPROCESS: D-LFT (injection compression)EQUIPMENT: Krauss MaffeiPHOTO: Krauss Maffei

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VEHICLE: Ford Kuga (2010)APPLICATION: Roof spoiler and tailgate outer

panelGRADE: LyondellBasell Hifax TRC 280X MOLDER: PlastalREA NOTES: - Inner panel is Stamax (SABIC)- Potential for design transfer to the U.S. (2010)

PHOTO: Robert Eller Associates LLC

HATCHBACK DOOR INNER: GROWTH APPLICATION

PART: Hatchback door inner panelMATERIAL: 40% LGF-PPSTATUS: PrototypePROCESS: D-LFT (injection)EQUIPMENT: Krauss MaffeiCOMPETITION: LGF-PP compound

PHOTO: Krauss Maffei

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MERCEDES SMART FORTWO TAILGATE:PRECURSOR FOR LGF-PP IN BODY STRUCTURES?

• E-LF-PP gives high load bearing and impact absorbency • Translation potential for rear seat backrest

Source: Weber Automotive; ESORO AG

• 20% Stiffness increase vs. earlier version

• LGF-PP move into body structures

• Early use of E-LF-PP (endless long fiber polypropylene)

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EXAMPLE OF LGF-PP and E-LF-PP DIRECT PROCESS

Source: Robert Eller Associates LLC, 2009

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DESIGN CONCEPT FOR E-LGF-PP BASED COMPACT CAR BODY STRUCTURE

Source: Weber Automotive; ESORO AG

Metallic front and rear elements

Double shell floor

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BIOPOLYMER CANDIDATES FOR AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS

BIOPOLYMERS

MATRIX

HC-BASED(E.G., PP)

BIOPOLYMER-PLA-POLYAL- KANOATE-SOY

NATURAL

FIBERS

SYNTHETIC

VEGETABLE ANIMAL(E.G., WOOL, HAIR)

HC-BASED BIO-BASED(BIOFIBERS)

VIRGIN REGEN-ERATED

-FLAX-HEMP-KENAF-HENNEQUIN-JUTE

-SISAL-CURANA-BANANA-BAMBOO

-COTTON-KAPOTE

-COCONUT -PINE-OTHERS

BASTFIBERS LEAF SEED FRUIT WOOD

WOODFLOUR

WOODFIBER

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES LLC, 2009

NOTE: (a) USED IN BRAZIL, RECENT U.S. INTRODUCTION IN NYLON

PLA POLYAL-KANOATE

b/mydox/biopolymers/BioBased Composites Auto 09.vsdlg/myfiles/visio/BioBased Composites Auto 09.vsd

BRO-MELIAD

-CURAUA(a)

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FUTURE VISION/SUMMARY

• Like other auto plastics, TP composites (especially LF-RTPs) are affected by: • The global economic downturn• Market growth shift to Asia • Sharp global automotive production downturn• European/Asian OEM share gain in N. America • Share gain for smaller vehicles in the global fleet• Expected fuel price increase and slow penetration of

hybrids and electric drive vehicles

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FUTURE VISION/SUMMARY (Cont’d.)

• The LF-RTPs have strong growth potential: • Substitution on multiple (high weight) applications• Growth in modular construction • Renewed weight/cost save pressures• Supply chain restructuring/direct fabrication savings• Parts consolidation potential• Front end modules/carriers, door hardware modules,

and underbody shields will be near-term growth driver• European/Asian share gain in N. America brings

technology and designs to accommodate vehicle market shifts

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FUTURE VISION/SUMMARY (Cont'd.)

• Intermaterial and inter-process competition:Multiple materials/processes are competing. D-LFT will make rapid share gains due to cost savings but could be

restricted by capex requirements in a difficult investment environment.

Natural fiber reinforcement will gain some shareCarbon fiber TPCs will be pulled into the auto market

TP composites bring opportunities for adding value, Parts consolidation/weight savings in most applications Improved energy management/space savings Adding acoustic functionality to underbody shieldCrosscar beam/structural duct integration in instrument panels

AUTOMOTIVE TP COMPOSITES: PART OF MANAGING IN A DOWNTURN

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Thank You!