Automotive Electronics Perspectivesthor.inemi.org/webdownload/2013/Auto_WS_Sept/Juliussen... ·...

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Automotive Electronics PerspectivesAuto Production OverviewAutomotive Electronics OverviewInfotainment Trends

Connected Car ImpactSoftware & Apps Impact

ADAS + V2X Self-Driving CarsCore Auto ECU trends (AUTOSAR)Summary & Conclusions

Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS


Key Information Other InformationCompany Public company: NYSE

2013 Revenue: $1.8B+2013 EBITA: $540M+

Symbol: IHSPeople: 8,000+EPS: $4.75+

Business Focused on information servicesOffices worldwideAcquires leading companies

Many industries31 countries7-12 per year

Industries Aerospace & DefenseAutomotiveConstructionElectronics & Media (iSuppli)GovernmentMetals & MiningOil & GasShipping & Transportation

AgricultureChemicalsConsumer & RetailFinancialHealthcareMilitary & SecurityPower & UtilitiesRenewable Energy

IHS Overview

2


Key Information Other InformationProducts & Services

Auto sales by brand & modelAuto production: brand & modelAuto ownership databaseAuto history by VINAuto technology information

Countries & worldwidePlant, OEM, countriesUSA & other countriesMostly USA (Polk)Infotainment & ADAS

Auto Tech Focus: Infotainment & ADASModel Year feature availabilityForecasts by segments & OEMInfotainment system portalAuto software & services portalDriver assist/ADAS portalInfotainment usability portal

Databases & forecastsOnline databaseSupplier market shareAudio, navi & othersTelematics, apps, otherACC, LDW, PA, BSDYouTube channel*

IHS iSuppli (E&M)

Focus: Semiconductor industryInfotainment component portalPortables & LBS portalAuto system tear-downsCE & PC system services

Including auto semiAudio, navi & othersPND, smartphonesBOM cost estimatesGrowing auto impact

IHS Automotive Products & Services

VIN=Vehicle Identification Number; ACC=Adaptive Cruise Control; PA=Park Assist; LDW=Lane Departure Warning; BSD=Blind Spot Detection; BOM=Bill of Materials; LBS=Location Based Services

* http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB07AC4A0233D85AD


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ProdSales

WW Auto Production & Sales

2012-22 CAGR: Production 3.1%; Sales 3.2%

IHS July2013 data

Light Vehicles


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2012 2013 2014 2016 2019 2022

USAAmericasEuropeEMEAJapanChinaRest of AP

Auto Production: Regions

IHS July2013 data

EU growth starting in 2014 Light Vehicles


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2009 2012 2019

ToyotaVWGMR-NH-KFordFiat-ChrHondaPSASuzukiBMWDaimler

Top 12 WW Share: 80.7% 80.8% 77.0%

Includes Joint Ventures in China Light Vehicles

Auto Production: Top 12 OEMs

IHS July 2013 data: Light Vehicles


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USA Br Ru In Cn De Fr

199520002005201020152020

Light Vehicles

Motorization: Autos In-Use per 1000 People


Key Impact Other InformationRegulation Emission & fuel efficiency

Ownership (some cities)Safety rules

CO2, MPG & othersSingapore, Beijing, othersESC, eCall,

Car Use Issues

Operational costsTraffic jams & congestionParking search

Gas, parking, toll etc.Delays & costHassle, delays & cost

Consumer Electronics

Connected consumersSmartphone appsCloud info & services

Want car connections tooWant apps in car use tooWant car use too

Information Tech

Lower emissionsBetter fuel-efficiencyBetter safety systemsAutonomous systems

Computer-based systemsComputer-based controlDriver assist systemsNCAP inclusion emerging

Competing Tech

Mass transit systemsCar-sharingInfo tech substitution

Train, subway, bus, etc.Businesses & private (apps)Web meetings, shopping, etc.

Automotive Industry: External Forces

MPG=Miles Per Gallon; ESC=Electronic Stability Control; NCAP=New Car Assessment Program;


Automotive Electronics Driving Forces

Engine & Powertrain

Environmental Issues

• Mandate driven

Higher fuel economyLower emissionsLess congestion

Auto Systems

Chassis & Body

Driver/Passenger Comfort

Driver/Pass Infotainment

Driving Forces

Issues

Accident Avoidance and/or Mitigation

• Mandates emerging

Connected Car & Cloud

Computing• Customer pull

ADAS=Advanced Driver Assist Systems; ICE=Internal Combustion Engine; PHEV=Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Driver distractionDriver warningsDriver error fixes

More distractionUsage restrictionsApps & services

System Solutions

ADAS & Driver Assist

V2V & V2I Self-Driving

PHEV & EV ICE Advance

Telematics: eCall & Others


Auto Industry ICT Product Flow

ST Micro

NXP

Volkswagen

GM

Ford

Renault

Vehicle OEMs

Value Chain Company Examples

TI

Freescale

Hardware Products Software Products

Elektrobit Vector

Microsoft QNX

Valeo Mobileye

Paragon Parrot

Bosch Continental

Visteon Magneti

MicrocomputersMemory chipsSensor chipsOther chips

Device Interface Software

Operating SystemAuto MiddlewareSoftware Tools

Application SWHMI Software

Electronic SystemsSub-SystemsECU Modules

Sensor Modules

Network SystemsElectronic Systems

ECU ModulesSensor Modules

System IntegrationApplication SW

Operating SystemHMI Software

BMW

Toyota

Electronic SystemsECU Modules

Sensor Modules

Application SWOperating System

HMI Software

Product Flow

Tier 1 Suppliers

Software Suppliers

Tier 2 & 3Suppliers

Silicon Providers


Definition System ExamplesInfotainment Includes navigation functions and all

audio, video, human-machine interfaces and control electronicsMay include dashboard system

Head-unit, premium audio & RSENavigation, telematics & appsSmartphone apps integrationInstrument cluster

Powertrain Includes systems for engine control, fuel supply, starters, alternators, batteries, engine or transmission cooling, transmission control and environmental controls

Engine controlTransmission controlFuel & valve controlStarter & alternatorBattery management

Chassis & Safety

Includes systems for controlling the speed & braking, where car is goingIncludes passive and active safety systems such as driver assistAutonomous function control

Brakes (ABS) & Suspension (ESC)Steering (power, steer-by-wire)Tire pressure monitoring (TPMS)Airbag & seat-belt controlDriver assist (ACC, LDW, PA, BSD)

Body Electronics

Includes systems for controlling doors, windows, wipers, lights, signals, mirrors etc.

Lighting controlDoor & window controlWiper & mirror control

Comfort & Convenience

Includes electronics related to providing comfort and convenience

Climate controlSeat control

Auto Electronics Systems


Global Auto Electronics Value: OEM

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2008 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017

Electronics

2012-17 CAGR: Electronics 6.0%; Auto Sales 4.5%

Revenue is sales to auto OEM


Global Auto Electronics Value by Segment

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2012 2013 2015 2017

InfotainmentPowertrainSafety-ChassisComfortBodyOthers

2012-17 CAGR

Revenue is sales to auto OEM

Info: 5.6%PT: 5.0%S-C: 9.4%

Comfort: 5.6%Body: 4.2%

Others: 4.1%


Communication Links

What Is Telematics? Big Picture

Telematics Platform:Hardware & Software

Services & Apps to Car

• Car centric• Driver centric• Passenger centric

Telematics is a Platform for Connected Car Apps and Services

OEM• Embedded Modem

• Smartphone

Aftermarket• Embedded Modem

• Smartphone

Services & Apps based on

Multiple Cars• V2V & V2I• Autonomous cars

Services & Apps based on Car Data• Car centric• Driver centric• Cargo centric

Post-2020

V2V=Vehicle-to-Vehicle; V2I=Vehicle-to-Infrastructure


2000 2010 2020

Safety & Security

Cable or Cradle

DSRC-802.11p

Embedded Cellular

Driver Phone

Data Plan & AppsSW Updates-FOTA

Remote Diagnostics

How is the Car Connected?

Smartphone Apps

Bluetooth HFI

Driver Centric

V2V & V2I Apps

Real-time Data

Core auto Centric

Off-board Navi & LBS

OEM or AM Cellular Dongle

Data Plan to Wi-Fi

Multi-Device Data Plan

Infotainment Centric

SP Multi-Device Data Plan

1 wireless connection Multiple connections

HFI=Hands-Free Interface; FOTA=Firmware Over The Air

Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Time

Auto Wireless Systems

Cellular Systems

Broadcast Signals

AM Radio

Bluetooth

Analog-1G

Short-Range Wireless

FM Radio

Satellite Radio

Digital Radio: HD; DAB-DMB

Wi-Fi: 802a/b/g/n

BT 3.0+HS

Mobile TVGPS

Keyless RF DSRC-V2X5.9 GHz band

NFC; BT 4.0

2G-2.5G

3G-3.5G

4G LTE

802ac/ad

Mobile TV primarily in Japan, Korea & ChinaSatellite Radio primarily in N. America

4.5G

5G

White SpaceUnused TV Spectrum

Competition for data

going to the car


What Content Goes To & From a Car?Segment Key Information Comments

Car Electronics & Sensors(VRM)

Remote diagnosticsECU software correctionsECU software updatesECU software functional upgradesLocation data: Event or regular useSensor data: Event or regular use

On-demand or monthlyEmerging applicationFuture app: 1-3 times/yearFuture app: fee-basedTraffic probe, SVT, ACNEmerging apps

Driver

(Distraction Issues)

Safety & security services & appsRemote controlNavigation & LBSEntertainmentVoice-communicationInformation servicesText-based communicationSmartphone apps interactions

Mostly rare, undesirable eventsConvenience & cost savingsOn-board & Off-boardMusic-centricPhone call-centricNews, sport, business, etc.SMS & email-centricCar-related & general apps

Passenger Most driver services & appsRear-seat entertainmentFront-seat entertainment

Minimal distraction issuesGames, audio, videoAudio, games

VRM=Vehicle Relationship ManagementACN=Automatic Collision Notification

ECU=Electronic Control UnitSVT=Stolen Vehicle Tracking


Functionality

Fixed Function Head-Unit

• AM/FM Radio• Music player

Pre 1990 2000 2010 2020

Infotainment Evolution

Car-phone

Multi-Function Head-Unit

• Emb telematics• AM/FM radio• Music player• Premium audio• IV navigation

Connected H-U• Emb telematics• MD telematics• Smartphone HFI• AM/FM/Sat radio• Digital music• Premium audio• IV navigation• Smartphone navi

Cloud ConnectedHead-Unit

•Embedded & MD data plan telematics•Smartphone Apps Integration•AM/FM/Sat/Digital•Digital music•Premium audio•SW navi w/SP & cloud augmentation•Cloud content galore

IV=In Vehicle; MD=Mobile Device; SW=Software


Bluetooth HFI

Navi & Services

Com Link

Head-Unit Platform

BT & Wi-Fi Data Plan

Bluetooth & Data Plan

Smartphone Auto Impact TrendsSmartphone as Head-Unit

Mobile Navi• On/Off-board• Traffic info

Embedded tied to Smartphone Data Plan

LBS Apps• Dest download• Mobile search

2010 2015 2020

HMI & Interfaces

USB/iPod/BTSpeech/Touch

Apps Integration

Voice & Music

Text & Email

SP Platform as Head-Unit

Multi-touch Gesture HMI

HMI for Apps Integration

EV & RC

Interactive Navi• HMI integrated

• Service suite

Internet Radio

iPod Out, SpeechBT 3.0 + HS

H-U Apps Integration

Cloud Info & Apps

EV=Electric Vehicle; RC=Remote Control; HMI=Human Machine Interface; BT=Bluetooth


Auto Focused

Smartphone Connected Car: Big Picture

Car OEMs & Regions

IVI Systems

Comm Links

Content & Apps

Telematics System

Travel Content

Entertainment Focused

Telematics SPs

Service Providers

Cellular SPs

Smartphone App Stores

Music Content

Connected RSE; Pad

Connected Head-Unit

Smartphone Voice & HFI

Bluetooth & Wi-Fi

Head-Unit & Smartphone

Video Content

LBS Content

Other Content

Auto App Stores

Cloud/Web Auto Focus

Cloud/Web Suppliers

Smartphone Data Plan

How will the blocks be connected and which block will lead?Which content and apps will be most important?How will OEMs deploy systems/services by regions?

Which Hardware/Software platforms will lead?What is the deployment timeframe? By OEM and Region?

North AmericaFord, GM, Honda,

BMW,VW, Hyundai, M-B, Nissan, Toyota

EU & MEABMW, M-B, PSA, VW, Fiat, Hyundai, Ford, GM, SAIC

Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Volvo

Asia-PacificHonda, Nissan, Toyota, SAIC, Hyundai, BAC, BMW, M-B,

PSA, VW, Fiat, Ford, GM

QNX Platform

HW/SW Platforms

Genivi Platform

Android Platforms

Other Platforms?

Microsoft Platform

Pad Platforms?

USB & Aux In


Key InformationQuestion Smartphones already have thousands of auto-related apps:

Navigation (onboard and off-board), traffic info & LBSInternet radio and digital music storageCommunication apps (texting, email)Social network appsTelematics apps (remote control, vehicle location)Entertainment apps

Do we still need in-vehicle infotainment apps?Answer Yes, key in-vehicle apps are needed to provide a user interface

that focus the driver’s hands and mental power on driving tasksSome IVI apps use auto data for advanced functionality and needs to be built-in into an IVI systemBut the majority of Smartphone apps can be used in the car with apps integration software between H-U and Smartphone

Why Driver distraction issues require an auto HMI that is better than what a Smartphone can provideMandates that limit driver distraction from mobile devices are likely to be introduced sooner or later

IVI Apps vs. Smartphone Apps


IVI SystemIVI Apps PlatformSoftware Platform

Middleware PlatformOS Platform

Hardware PlatformMCU Platform

Infotainment Platform-ization

IVI AppsHMI SW

APIsMiddleware

OS SWHMI HW

MCU/Memory

New IVI Architecture

Infotainment System

• Proprietary HW

• Proprietary SW

Old IVI Architecture

• Competition at system level

• Low SW re-use• Low HW re-use

• Competition at every level

• High SW re-use• High HW re-use

Similar trend for core auto ECUs via AUTOSAR

SW Layers


Fixed Function Apps Head-Unit

Head-UnitFixed Function

Design

Smartphone Apps Integration

SoftwareRadio

ReceiverCD Music

Player

2005-2010 2015-2020

Optional Navigation

Apps Head-UnitSoftware-based Platform Design

Smartphone Apps

Built-in Head-Unit Apps

3G-4G Com Link & Data Plan

1000s of Car Apps

Digital Radio & MP3 Player

10-20 AppsOEM ChosenDriver Chosen

Main HMI•Natural speech•Multi-touch gesturing display

• ICD HMI overlap•Text-to-Speech•SWC

Main HMI•Switches-Knobs•Center display•Rotary haptic•SWC•Limited speech


Control Input

IVI HMI Technology: Big Picture

Information

Input Hardware

Alert/Feedback Information

MicrophoneStereo mics

Keyboard or Simulation

DisplaysICD

Head-unitHUDMirror

Speakers

Touch displayMulti-touchTouch pad

Switch, KnobMulti-switches

Rotary SwitchRotary Haptic

SensorsCameraRadar

ProximityGesture

LightsSound

Vibration

Output HardwareHMI Software

SoftwareDevice driversRadio controlCD controlSpeech recText-to-speechMulti-touchBT ProfilesHFI Software1-shot addressPattern reciPod controlInternet radioSMS & email via SR/TTS

InterfacesUSBSD

iPodAuxiliaryBluetooth

Wi-Fi

Haptic Output

InterfacesUSBSD

iPodAuxiliaryBluetooth

Wi-Fi

HMI must only take a fraction of the driver’s mental power, eye & hand activities


IVI Apps

IVI Apps Platform

Software PlatformMiddleware Platform

OS PlatformHardware Platform

MCU Platform

Auto Apps Approaches

IVI AppsHMI SW

APIsMiddleware

OS SWHMI HW

MCU/Memory

IVI System

Auto OEM HU Browser•Built-in auto HMI•For HTML5/Web apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: BMW Internet

Auto OEM SDK•APIs for auto HMI•To develop HU apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: GM

Auto OEM SDK•APIs for auto HMI•To develop SP apps•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: Ford AppLink

SP Apps Integration•Tailor SP app to auto HMI•To run SP apps from HU•Controlled by auto HMI•Ex: MirrorLink, Aha, others•OEMs: BMW, Toyota, Audi Note: SDK may be open

or only for partners


Hardware Abstraction Layer• Equivalent to BIOS in PCs

IVI Apps: Big Picture

IVI Hardware Platform• Atom, ARM, MIPS, others?

IVI HMI Hardware• Input, Output & Control

IVI Software Platform• OS Kernel & Middleware

IVI HMI Software Platform• Auto OEM specific

IVI Apps• Downloaded apps• Driver chosen

IVI Apps• Built-in apps• OEM chosen

IVI Apps• Apps integration• OEM chosen

Smartphone Apps & Content

• Genivi• Microsoft • QNX• Android

Platforms• Android• iPhone 5• WP8• BlackBerry 10

Current Standards• MirrorLink• Aha Radio• Pioneer Zypr• Airbiquity Choreo• Livio Connect• VNC, Google OAP• HTML5 interpreter

• Music apps• Navi-LBS apps• Telematics apps• Search apps• CRM apps• Remote diagnostics• SP remote control

• Travel & LBS• Eco apps• Social network apps• Entertainment apps• Car-centric apps• PAYD-PHYD


Information CommentsMainframe Computer Apps

Initially IBM produced most SW3rd party apps became important

In the 1960sIn the 1970s until today

Minicomputer Apps

Suppliers only did system SW3rd parties did nearly all apps

In the 1970s and 1980sPCs killed market in 1990s

Personal Computers


OSS also did system SWIn the 1980s until today

Smartphone Apps


OSS also did system SWApp stores speeded this up

Auto Apps Tier 1s did system SW and appsIn future 3rd parties will do apps

Open API will change thisWhy will auto be different?

Summary & Lessons

3rd parties always lead in appsLargest platforms usually winDevelopment tools are crucialStandards can change marketsWin-win business model is key

Largest innovation poolFirst mover is importantOpen source tools importantWatch for HMI API standardsAvoid organizational barriers

Historical Perspectives on Apps

OSS=Open Source Software


Key InformationContent Platform

Platform for content: From text & graphics to multimediaVast improvements from previous versionsHTML5 can handle all types of content

Web Apps Platform

Cross-browser platform for web applicationsWithout browser plug-insImproved security compared to previous browser versions

Smartphone Apps Platform

Platform for Smartphone applicationsCross-platform for portability across all Smartphone platforms

SW Portability Platform

Cross-platform for portability across hardware platformsCross-platform for portability across OS platformsHMI will require some customization, but new Device Location APIs will help for some device segments

Summary Any device accessing web & cloud content need HTML5 capabilities—ASAPHTML5 based apps will compete strongly with native application in majority of cases

HTML5 IVI Impact


2010 2015 2020

Unknown Future Apps

Embedded Car Apps

Car Controlled SP Apps

IVI Apps• Navigation• Telematics

• Digital Music

Future of Auto Apps

SP Apps Integration• Auto API SDKs

• Open/Partner-only

Cloud Apps & Services

Cloud Service• Web Browser• HTML5 apps

IVI SW Platforms

Connected Car

Auto HMI APIs

Car-Centric Apps• IVI apps & others• HTML5 run-time

Auto Data APIs

Required innovation

Most innovative new apps will be here

Many new apps will leverage APIs and be here

Smartphone apps for car HMI. Any apps innovation?

Cloud apps for car HMI. Any apps innovation?

Car Apps• New apps • Car-centric• Innovation


A Long-Time Problem, Long-Term Solutions

Accident Costs• USA Cost 2000: $230B+• USA cost 2010: $300B+; 2%+ of GDP• EU Costs 2010: $280B+; 2% of GDP• Accident rates slowly declining• Cost decline: “Not so much”•Over 90% of accidents are caused by driver errors

Autonomous Cars•Multiple approaches:•ADAS & V2X vs. Standalone vs. ?•Technology: Solvable•Price: Starts high, declines rapidly•Drivers: Can be convinced with safety + efficiency + convenience arguments•Legal: Hardest issue due to distribution of risk & liability

The Problem

The Long-Term SolutionDriver Assist & ADAS

• Park assist & Self parking• Adaptive cruise control• Lane departure/lane keep assist• Side object/blind spot detection• Forward collision warning• Automatic braking• Growth for all systems• From luxury to mid-range models

Current Solutions

V2V & V2I• V2V has network effect• V2V need mandate for max impact• V2V will be inexpensive system• V2I has large infrastructure costs• USA: V2I comes after V2V• EU & Japan: V2I comes first• Deployment timing uncertainties

Mid-Term Solution

35


Key InformationADAS Overview

Advanced Driver Assist Systems warn about driving dangersMay improve driving skills and may have autonomous operationADAS functions are focused on avoiding most common accidents

Park Assist Systems

Ultrasonic PA is most popular system worldwide—lowest priceCamera PA is on a growth path in USA due to future mandateAutonomous PA & Top-Down PA are growing segments

Adaptive Cruise Control

ACC is mostly radar-based and primarily for luxury segmentForward Collision Warning & Autonomous Braking features addedACC improves traffic flow with 10% plus penetration

Lane Assist Systems

Camera-based platform for lane assist: LDW, LKA & othersFCW, Traffic Sign Recognition & High Beam Assist

Side Object Detection

SOD or BSD are radar or camera-based systemsNewest system, but showing strong growth

Take-away ADAS are on a trajectory from luxury autos to entry autosADAS are entering mid-range autos in a major way by 2015ADAS mandates are likely to emerge: Camera rear park is first

ADAS: Big Picture


Driver Assist Trends – Adding AutonomyPlatform Adding Functionality Adding Autonomy

Adaptive Cruise Control

Full Speed Range, Stop & GoCity ACC

Longitudinal distance controlAutonomous emergency braking

Collision Warning, Avoidance & Mitigation

Avoidance brakingCollision-Imminent Mitigation BrakingPedestrian DetectionSensor fusion

Integration with ACC platformFull autonomous brake powerMore data higher confidencegreater and more effective autonomy

Lane Departure Warning

Active Lane Keep AssistIntegration with forward-sensing

Autonomous lateral controlLongitudinal + lateral autonomy = Super Cruise

Side Object Detection

Active object avoidance interventionSensor fusion, park assist integration

Autonomous lateral controlLow-speed automatic braking

Park Assist Fully Autonomous Park AssistMoving Object Detection software

Autonomous steering + acceleration/brakeLow-speed automatic braking

Vision-Based ADAS

Traffic Sign RecognitionDriver MonitoringAdaptive Front Light, High Beam Assist

Automatic situational awarenessSafeguard when drivers choose to driveVisual assistance for driver or vehicle

Location-Enabled ADAS

Traffic Sign RecognitionSpeed Curve AlertEnhanced Map Data

Confirmation and/or detectionAutonomous speed safety adjustmentsAutomatic optimization of powertrain


Functionality

ADAS Systems• Predictive collision avoidance• Autonomous ADAS functions

Passive Driver Assist• Sensor-based warning• Ride/handling control assist

Active Driver Assist• Proactive control systems• Collision impact mitigation

Autonomous Driving• ADAS & V2X• Semi Full autonomy

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Driver Assist Trends

Reactive Safety• Seatbelts• Airbags• Anti-Lock Brakes

Vehicle Dynamics• Traction Control• Electronic Stability Control

V2V & V2I• V2V has network effect• V2V need mandate


V2V and V2I Applications

V2I Applications• Intersection safety• Turning safety• Merging safety• Eco/fuel-saving apps• 15+ applications

Infotainment Link• Information to driver• Info to passengers• Info to mobile devices• Telematics applications

V2V2I: Communication links for many applications & services

V2V Applications• Emergency warnings• Enhanced driver assist• Collision avoidance• New driver assist apps• 20+ applications

V2V & V2I- Broadband com link- IEEE 802.11p; DSRC- IEEE 1609 WAVE- SAE J735 Messages- Other com links

Transport Efficiency• Traffic management• ETC & other payments• Traffic info flow: 2-way• Road condition info


Key InformationV2X Overview

V2V is inexpensive system with many safety-related applicationsV2I has similar apps, but requires complex network infrastructuresGrowing driver distraction requires technology solutions like V2X

V2V versus V2I

V2V can address 75% plus of all accident (non-impaired drivers)V2I can address most remaining accidents categoriesV2V2I as a primary countermeasure in 81% of all accidentsV2I has many ITS and eco-related applications

Technology Issues

Most V2V apps require response times that cellular cannot meetNetwork features of consumer Wi-Fi has problems for V2V appHence a V2X tailored Wi-Fi version, 802.11p, is being tested

V2V versus ADAS

V2V and ADAS have overlapping functionalityLong-term vision: Combine V2V & ADAS into autonomous driving

Deployment Issues

V2V is only useful if nearby autos also have V2V (network effect)Hence a mandate for all new cars is best deployment strategyAftermarket V2V devices further increases the V2X value & ROI

Take-away V2V is probably least costly way to lower accident costsUSA is expected to deploy a V2V mandate due to its network effectUSA V2I investments are politically unrealistic and will be delayedEU is expected to deploy V2X on a voluntary basis post-2016

V2V & V2I: Big Picture


Key InformationWhat Is It? Autos with technologies that allow operation without driver control

Autonomous driving or self-driving cars or robotic carsWhat tech is needed?

Sensors to spot all moving and fixed objects in path of travelSoftware to interpret all the sensor data—360 degree viewSoftware & hardware to control the direction & speed of the carOverall algorithms and software implementation of a skilled driver

Approaches ADAS: Only partial autonomous drivingPlatooning/Cooperative ACC: Group of cars with only 1 “driver”Sensor-based only: Google, DARPA Grand ChallengeSensors & V2X: No examples yet, but likely to be most important

What are the key challenges?

Technology: Hardware & software is emerging and are solvableCost: Very high today, but price will decline rapidlyLegal: Likely hardest problem due to economic risk distributionROI: Society’s ROI is assured; Auto OEM’s ROI-not so much

Takeaway Self-driving cars is a when question; not an if questionSometime between 2020 and 2025, self-driving cars are likely to be commercially available

Autonomous Driving Overview


Requirements ImplicationsTech Advances

Navigate from current location to destinationFollow all traffic rulesFollow lanes, road and routeAvoid crashes with pedestrians, surrounding traffic & obstaclesControl all driving systemsControl handoff to and from carUp-to-date informationMinimal failure impactImproved use of driver’s time

High resolution maps and positioning Read all road signsSpecial navi systemSensors and vast computing powerSensors, compute powerUser interfacesContinuous updatesReliability & redundancyDriving not a distraction

Cost Luxury cars: $5,000 to $10,000Entry cars: $500-$1,500

Rapid cost declinesLater deployment

Others Laws for self-driving carsInsurance for self-driving carsBuyers for self-driving cars

New laws requiredRisk-liability assignmentsCar enthusiasts: No?

What Is Needed for a Self-Driving Car?

42


Key InformationSelf-Driving Car Electronics Costs: R&D

R&D self-driving car projects have very high costsGoogle’s LIDAR systems are in the $70K rangeTotal cost of Google’s sensors are in the $250K rangeThe price of the car is in addition to the electronics costs

Self-Driving Electronics Car Costs: Production

Speculative to estimate the cost of self-driving electronicsHence a few scenarios will be presented in next slideThese are incremental costs for self-driving electronics costs, but includes V2X and at least part of ADAS products

Cost scenarios 3 electronics cost levels: $25K, $15K and $10K2 average yearly cost declines: 15% and 20%Project the cost after 3, 5, 8, 10 and 15 years

Self-Driving Car Cost Perspectives


Self-Driving Car:Electronics Price Decline Scenario

Autonomous Electronics

Cost% Yearly Decline Year 3 Year 5 Year 8 Year 10 Year 15

15% 15,353 11,093 6,812 4,922 2,184$25,000 20% 12,800 8,192 4,194 2,684 880

15% 9,212 6,656 4,087 2,953 1,310$15,000

20% 7,680 4,915 2,517 1,611 52815% 6,141 4,437 2,725 1,969 874

$10,00020% 5,120 3,277 1,678 1,074 352

Cost Takeaway:• Self-driving car electronics cost are likely to decline rapidly• With a starting cost of $10K, the cost will reach an affordable range within 5 years• With higher starting cost it will take a few more years


2005 2015 2025 2035

Fully Self-Driving CarsNHTSA: L4

Partial AutonomyNHTSA: L2

Limited Self-DrivingNHTSA: L3

Self-Driving Car Evolution

Self-Driving Car EraPoint-to-Point, Multi-Approaches

Selective Autonomous DrivingHighways, Traffic Jams, Road Trains

Autonomous FunctionsAutonomy Combinations

NHTSA=National Highway Traffic Safety Administration45

Limited AutonomyNHTSA: L1

Autonomous FunctionsACC, Self-Park, Braking


Key Information Other InformationFocus Set ECU software standards

Decouple HW & SW designLower development cost-time

Layered software architectureReusable SW & HW componentsEnhanced quality & efficiency

Members 153 members (8/2013)Core: 9 membersPremium: 42 membersAssociate: 81 membersDevelopment: 21 members

In four groups7 OEMs & 2 Tier 1s9 OEMs & 8 Tier 1s, others8 OEMs & 10 Tier 1s, othersMostly software companies

Who are the leaders?

German OEMs & Tier 1sEU & USA software firmsEuropean OEMs & Tier 1sUSA OEMs & Tier 1sJapan OEMs & Tier 1sOther OEMs & Tier 1s

BMW, Daimler, VW, Conti, BoschVector, dSpace, EB, ETAS, MentorPSA, Fiat, Renault, MagnetiFord, GM, Delphi, TRWJASPAR, Toyota, Honda, DensoHyundai, Great Wall, SAIC, Chery

Status Decade of developmentFour versions released

Mostly European OEMsMultiple upgrades: Latest is 4.1.1

Opportunity 2013: 50M Autosar ECUs*25% of ECUs in 2016*Every auto ECU by 2025

2016: 300M Autosar ECUs*7 Core OEMs: 47% WW shareExcluding infotainment ECUs

AUTOSAR: Auto ECU Driving Force

*Source: AUTOSAR; Core OEM partners only


Application Layer

Runtime Environment

(RTE)

Basic Software (BSW)

Microcontroller

AUTOSAR Layered Software Architecture

Overview

Autosar OS is an extension of OSEK

Application Layer•Applications software components (1,2 .. n)•Autosar interface (for each component)

Runtime Environment (RTE)•Traditional RTE software functions•RTE implements Virtual Function Bus (VFB)•VFB is HW independent communication between apps software components

BSW Layers:•Service layer (System incl. Autosar OS, Memory, Communication Services)•ECU Abstraction (Onboard devices, Memory HW, Communication HW, I/O HW)•MCU Abstraction (MCU drivers, Memory drivers, Communication drivers, I/O drivers)

Microcontroller (MCU)


Autosar-Compliant ECU Growth

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

#M

2010 2014 2020

Autosar ECUs

05

101520253035404550

%

2010 2014 2020

Autosar Share of ECUs


Features 2020 Changes*Propulsion System Mix

ICE: Gasoline engineICE: Diesel engineHybrid ICE & PHEVBattery EV

From 77% share to 70-75%From 22% share to 25%-28%From 2%+ share to 5-8%From <0.2% share to 1-2%

Engine Control

Engine management systemElectronic GDI (direct injection)HCCI (emerging injection tech)Electronic valve control-EVCElectronic turbo controlCylinder-on-demandThrottle-by-wire

From 97% share to 100%From <10% share to 50-60%From 0% share to 20-30%From <1% share to 20-35%From <1% share to 10-15%From <1% share to 10-15%From <5% share to 50-70%

Transmission Control

Electronic transmissionTransmission-CVTMPE road geometry/attributes

From 60% share to 90-100%From <1% share to 10-20%From <1% share to 20-30%

OEM Linked Functions

Remote diagnosticsECU software fix/upgrade

From 5%+ share to 80%+From <1% share to 50%+

Powertrain Trends

*Varies by region

GDI=Gasoline Direct Injection; HCCI=Homogenous Charge Compression Ignition; MPE=Map & Position Engine


Features 2020 Changes*Brake & Stability

• ABS• Electronic brake assist• Brake force distribution• Brake-by-wire• Traction control• Electronic stability-ESC• Tire pressure-TPMS

• From 60% share to 85-100%• From <1% share to 30-40%• From <5% share to 35-45%• From 0% share to 30-50%• From 30% share to 80-90%• From 25% share to 75-90%• From 40% share to 65-75%

Steering • Electric power steering• 4-wheel steering• Steer-by-wire

• From 26% share to 80-95%• From <1% share to 10-15%• From 0% share to 30-50%

Suspension • Electronic suspension• Active suspension• Suspension-by-wire

• From 38% share to 85-95%• From <2% share to 10-15%• From 0% share to 40-60%

Other • Event data recorder• Electronic Toll Collection-ETC

• From 25%+ share to 50-60%• From 7% share to 35-45%


• Remote diagnostics• ECU software fix/upgrade

• From 5%+ share to 80%+• From <1% share to 50%+

Chassis Function Growth

*Varies by region


Features 2020 Changes*Dashboard-Instrument Cluster

Analog/digital displayMultifunction digital displayHead-up displaySpeech input controlSteering wheel controls

From 30%+ share to 65-70%From <2% share to 15%-25%From 1% share to 10-15%From 30% share to 60-70%From 30% share to 90-100%

Lighting Systems

LED-HID controlAdaptive front lighting

From <14% share to 20-25%From <1% share to 10-15%

Security Systems

Alarm systemImmobilizer systemStolen vehicle tracking

From <15% share to 35-45%From 80% share to 85%From <15% share to 45-55%

Comfort Systems

Electronic window controlElectronic seat controlElectronic HVAC controlRain sensitive wipersKeyless/passive entry

From 85/65% share to 90/70%**From <20% share to 35-50%From <15% share to 30-40%From <5% share to 55-70%From 62% share to 65-70%


Remote diagnosticsECU software fix/upgrade

From 5%+ share to 60%+From <1% share to 50%+

Body & Comfort Trends

*Varies by region; **Front/Rear Windows


Data Consumption

Embedded Telematics• Safety & Security• Remote Diagnostics• 2.5G modem

2005 2010 2015 2020

Connected Car Evolution

Smartphone Data Plan• Streaming music/video• Telematics service• Apps & cloud content• 3G & 3.5G

VRM=Vehicle Relationship Management

SP & Multi-Device Data Plan• Streaming music/video• Telematics service• Auto apps & cloud content• 3.5G & LTE; Wi-Fi augmentation

Embedded Telematics• Streaming music• Auto apps & cloud content• S&S; VRM• LTE modem & Data Plan


Connected Car Cost PerspectivesTrends 2020 Perspectives

Development Costs: HW

More complex systemsHW-SW platform architectureSystem-on-Chip growth

Better tools & building blocksAdvanced features & capabilitiesSignificant cost decline per system

Development Costs: SW

Largest development partSW platform required to lower development cost

Pre-configured software platformsAdvanced tools & middlewareSignificant cost decline per system

Development Costs: OEM Apps

IVI has limited volumeH-U vs. SP apps integrationSP vs. H-U apps: 80%-20%?

Advanced HMI platforms & tools100s of native H-U appsSteep H-U cost decline per app

Manufacturing Cost: HW

Less cost per functionSoC growth & importance

Declining system entry costSubstantial BOM cost decline

Manufacturing Cost: SW

IP & royalty costs growingOSS save small portion

Share of cost will growOSS will grow in importance

Apps Mfg Cost IP & royalty costs growing Share of cost will growService Costs Many new services likely Share of cost will growData Costs Multi-device plans emerging

Data volume & cost will growShare of cost will growLikely the most expensive portion

IP=Intellectual Property; OSS=Open Source Software


2020 Connected Car

Auto OEM

Cloud Content

Other Autos

Core Auto ECUs ADAS ECUs

Convenience ECUs

Infotainment ECUs

SmartphoneApps &

Data Plan

Devices in & around

Car

Key Fob

BT 4.0 and/or NFC

Wi-Fi Direct w/wo Router

BT 3.0 HS

Wi-Fi or USB

4G

Smartphone AppsBT 4.0

Embedded

3.5G or 4G

Roadside ITS

V2V

DSRC

V2I

DSRC

Embedded3.5G or 4G

Embedded links may be a shared connection; with or without a data plan

Tablet-based RSE

BT 3.0, Wi-Fi or USB

• SW upgrades via Ethernet network to all ECUs in car?

• Secure, ECU software distribution system

RSE=Rear Seat Entertainment


1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Analog Car EraAnalog control systems

Analog-Digital Car EraDigital control system growth

Digital Car EraPlatform architectureRe-usable software

Self-Driving CarSoftware-defined carAutonomous driving

ECUs

Software-Defined Car Evolution

20 Year Hardware Improvements•MCU performance: 400 times•Memory chip: 32,000 times

The car is the most complex product in volume production!

AUTOSARRemote DiagnosticsSoftware APIs

Connected CarRemote SW UpgradesSoftware security

Questions?

Egil Juliussen, Principal Analyst, Infotainment & ADAS,

IHS AutomotiveSeptember 9, 2013

[email protected]

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