Authoritarian Republics

POLS1270Prof. M. CammettFeb. 23-28, 2012

Authoritarian Republics in the MENA

• Cases: Egypt, Syria & Tunisia– Formal and informal features of the political system– How do rulers rule?

3 Areas of Focus: • System of government & control (as evolved to present)• Opposition & civil society• Political economy

How it sustains/undermines authoritarian rule

Backdrop to the uprisings

Egypt: System of Government & Rule

Background to the Free Officers Revolution (1952)• Monarchy & British rule• Parliamentary politics in inter-

war Egypt• Revolution!

Political and social change• Nasser (1956-1970)• Sadat (1970-1981)

Governing structures:• Primacy of the executive• NDP• Elections

What was different about the 2005 elections?

• Methods of rule and control

Syria: System of Government & Rule

The Baath Party• 1963: Baath Party military

rule, populism

• 1969/70: Hafez al-Asad takes over

- Methods of rule- Alawite privilege

• Baath Party principles: “Unity, Freedom, Socialism”

What did this mean in practice?

• Formal rules (i.e., constitution) v. the reality of politics

Pre-Baath Party rule:-Colonial machinations & the creation of Syria- 1948-1963: Instability, coups, UAR (1958-61)

Bashar al-Asad (2000-)-Generational shift-Consolidation of power

Tunisia: System of Government & Rule

French colonial rule (1881-1956)• Direct rule, “civilizing mission”

• Anti-colonial movement: Rise of Neo-Destour & UGTT

Bourguiba (1956-1987)• Sweeping political & social change

• 3-pronged strategy of control

Ben Ali (1987-2012)• The “Tunisian Spring” (1988-90)

• Methods of authoritarian rule: Shifts from the 1990s to 2000s

Egypt: Opposition & Civil Society

Three major types of opposition:• Legal opposition parties (i.e., New Wafd)• Open, but not legally recognized opposition movements (i.e., Muslim

Brotherhood, Kifaya)• Disorganized, underground opposition (i.e. Radical Islamists, internet-

based groups)

Implications of type of opposition group for the uprisings

Civil society:- The proliferation and evolution of CSOs- Regime methods of control:

Constitutional toolsCarrotsSticks

Syria: Opposition & Civil Society

Main opposition groups:• Radical Baathist opposition• Islamist groups• Other groups (1990s)

Muslim Brotherhood• Origins & Evolution• Factions (& geographic bases)• Showdown with the state Hama

Massacre (1982)• Reconciliation with the state

Beyond Islamists• Rising civic activism in the 1990s+• Women’s groups, intellectuals,

workers

Tunisia: Opposition & Civil Society

Major opponents:• Labor

– UGTT history

• Islamists– MTI-Nahda– Nahda: From engagement to

exile/repression and return

• “Secular” parties at home and abroad

• Legacies for the RevolutionProtests in Gafsa, 2008

Egypt: Political Economy

• ISI: Pre-revolutionary and post-revolutionary

• Revolution: Social and economic change

• Infitah under Sadat

• Economic crisis structural reforms (1990s+)

• Intensified reforms (2004)

• The rise of Gamal & co. (v. ISI interests)

Growth but corruption, inequality & limited development

Syria: Political Economy

• Baath “socialism” and private sector development

• Promoting the private sector1. 1980s-early 1990s2. Late 1990s/2000s

• Components of the private sector

• The social foundations of the Muslim Brotherhood

Tunisia: Political Economy

• 1960s: The collectivization experiment (Ben Salah)

• 1970s: Liberalization (Nouira) and the emergence of the export sector

• Human development: Tunisian exceptionalism

• 1986+: Economic crisis and liberalization Tunisia as a “star pupil” of the IMF/World Bank

• Crony capitalism under Ben Ali

• High expectations and persistent economic challenges

Conclusion:Comparing MENA Republics

• Methods of rule and control

• The role of the party

• From party-state increased personalization

• Social foundations of the state

• Populism and economic development trajectories

• Opposition groups: Islamists, secularists, others

• Responses to opposition