Austroads National Risk Assessment Model (ANRAM)acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Jurewicz_Audits.pdf ·...
Transcript of Austroads National Risk Assessment Model (ANRAM)acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Jurewicz_Audits.pdf ·...
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Overview
• Context
• What is ANRAM? How it is used?
• Severe crash risk estimation
• ANRAM Toolkit
• Next steps
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Context
• Diminishing blackspots
– Only a third of fatal crashes occur at blackspots
– Casualty crashes scattered on rural and LGA roads
– Blackspot treatments alone cannot reach strategy goals
• Emerging need for proactive approach
– Crash risk assessment since the late 1980s (e.g. RSAs)
– Austroads >10 year investment in research
– Confidence in identification of crash risk
• National Road Safety Strategy 2011-20, First Actions
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What is ANRAM?
Australian National Risk Assessment Model
– A consistent method for the whole country
– Based on Australian crash data, speeds & traffic
– For all jurisdictions, state and local government
– Fatal and serious injury crash focus, proactive & reactive.
• Outcome of a 4-year Austroads research project
• Collaboration with iRAP
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Uses of ANRAM
• Identify FSI crash risk across the road network
• Prioritise routes and road sections
• Target priority crash types, e.g. intersection
• Develop treatments and programs
• Measure progress towards Safe System infrastructure
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• Run-off-road
• Head-on
• Intersection
• Pedestrian
• Other
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Severe crash risk estimation
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FSI crash risk analysis – ANRAM Toolkit
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FSI crash risk analysis – ANRAM Toolkit
ANRAM FSI
Predicted FSI
Observed FSI
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• Estimate FSI crash reductions from treatments
• Create road improvement treatment programs
• Estimate BCRs
• Section, route, network, state- and nation-wide programs
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FSI crash risk analysis – ANRAM Toolkit
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• Trials by jurisdictions – feedback and refinement
• Nationwide implementation
• Incorporation into AusRAP/ViDA tools
• Funding programs based on risk assessment
• Direction of development to be coordinated by ANRAM
Steering Group and Technical Working Group
Next steps
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Thank you
Chris Jurewicz
ARRB
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Strategic Approach
• NZ example
• Recognises roles of
different approaches, e.g.
big projects vs. mass
action treatment plans
• Importance of Safety
Maintenance and safety
gains through asset
management and
technology improvements
• ANRAM quantifies
benefits for all
approaches
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Crash
type
Run-off-road
Head-on
Intersection
Pedestrian
Other
SRS _________
Network
average
SRS
Observed
FSI
crashes
f(AADT, L) x Predicted
FSI
crashes
=
Road attributes
WF = EB
ANRAM
FSI
crashes
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Severe crash risk prediction
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The risk algorithm
Divided into crash types:
- Run-off-road
- Head-on
- Intersection
- Pedestrian
- Other
Star Rating Score (SRS)
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Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delineation
Shoulder rumble strips
SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Roadside severity - driver-side offset
Roadside severity - driver-side feature
Paved shoulder w idth driver-side
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Run-off-road SRS Traversability - median traversability
Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delineation
Shoulder rumble strips
SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Roadside severity - passenger-side offset
Roadside severity - passenger-side feature
Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delinaeation
SRS - Head-on LOC Centreline rumble strips
Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Head-on severity - median type
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Head-on SRS Traversability - median traversability
Operating speed
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
SRS - Head-on Overtaking Differential speed limits
Number of lanes
Head-on severity - median type
External f low influence - AADT per lane (opposing)
Operating speed
Intersection type
Intersection quality
Grade
Street lighting
SRS - Intersection Skid resistance / grip
Sight distance
Chanellisation - splitter and median islands
Speed management / traff ic calming
Intersection severity - intersection type
Intersection SRS External f low influence - intersecting road volume
Operating speed
Access points
SRS - Property Access Service road
Access point - severity
External f low influence - default f low
Pedestrian SRS Refer to the next f igure
Other SRS = (Intersection SRS + Head-on SRS) / 2
ANRAM SRS
Presence of user - along
Operating speed
Pedestrian along provision - driver-side
Curvature
Curve quality
Sight distance
Lane w idth
Delineation
Grade
Road condition
Speed management / traff ic calming
Parking (side friction) inc. footpath driver-side
Shoulder rumble strips
Skid resistance / grip
Street lighting
Pedestrian along provision - driver-side (severity)
External f low influence - through vehicle f low per lane
Presence of user - along
Operating speed
Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side
Curvature
Curve quality
Sight distance
Lane w idth
Delineation
Grade
Road condition
Speed management / traff ic calming
Parking (side friction) inc. footpath passenger-side
Shoulder rumble strips
Skid resistance / grip
Street lighting
Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side (severity)
External f low influence - through vehicle f low per lane
Presence of user - crossing
Operating speed
Number of lanes
Median type
Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road
Pedestrian crossing quality - through road
Intersection type
Intersection quality
Pedestrian SRS SRS - Crossing through road Pedestrian fencing (inc crossing)
Skid resistance / grip
Street lighting
Sight distance
Parking (side friction)
Traff ic calming
Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road (severity)
External f low influence - through vehicle f low per lane
Presence of user - along
Operating speed
Number of lanes (side road)
Median type (side road)
Pedestrian crossing facitlities - side road
Pedestrian crossing quality - through road
Intersection type / access point
SRS - Crossing side road Intersection quality
Pedestrian fencing (inc. side road crossing)
Skid resistance / grip
Street lighting
Sight distance
Parking (side friction)
Traff ic calming
Pedestrian crossing facilities - side road (severity)
External f low influence - side road or access point vehicle f low per lane
SRS - Along
SRS - Along driver-side
SRS - Along passenger-side
Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delineation
Shoulder rumble strips
SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Roadside severity - driver-side offset
Roadside severity - driver-side feature
Paved shoulder w idth driver-side
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Run-off-road SRS Traversability - median traversability
Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delineation
Shoulder rumble strips
SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Roadside severity - passenger-side offset
Roadside severity - passenger-side feature
Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Operating speed
Lane w idth
Curvature
Quality of curve
Delinaeation
SRS - Head-on LOC Centreline rumble strips
Road condition
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
Head-on severity - median type
External f low influence - AADT per lane
Head-on SRS Traversability - median traversability
Operating speed
Grade
Skid resistance / grip
SRS - Head-on Overtaking Differential speed limits
Number of lanes
Head-on severity - median type
External f low influence - AADT per lane (opposing)
Operating speed
Intersection type
Intersection quality
Grade
Street lighting
SRS - Intersection Skid resistance / grip
Sight distance
Chanellisation - splitter and median islands
Speed management / traff ic calming
Intersection severity - intersection type
Intersection SRS External f low influence - intersecting road volume
Operating speed
Access points
SRS - Property Access Service road
Access point - severity
External f low influence - default f low
Pedestrian SRS Refer to the next f igure
Other SRS = (Intersection SRS + Head-on SRS) / 2
ANRAM SRS
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FSI crash risk analysis – ANRAM Toolkit
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ANRAM computational flow diagram Application of Safety Performance Functions
SRS Weighting Factor < 1
Mean Predicted FSI
High Predicted FSI
Low Predicted FSI
SRS Weighting Factor ~ 1
SRS Weighting Factor > 1
Mean FSI