Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

Penny WhettonIPAA March 2010

Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

Global average temperatures are rising

CSIRO Climate change: the latest science

CR

U, U

EA

Causes of observed warming


IPCC

2001

Global impact of future emissions


Garnaut R

eport (2008)


Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm:0.8 – 2.1 °C

550 ppm:1.1 – 2.7 °C

No mitigation:2.4 – 6.4 °C

Future temperature changes

Future temperature changes


Global warming by 2100: 450 ppm:0.8 – 2.1 °C

550 ppm:1.1 – 2.7 °C

No mitigation:2.4 – 6.4 °C

Future rainfall changes


More rainfall, except drier in mid-latitudes (including southern Australia)

Precipitation increase in ≥90% of simulationsPrecipitation increase in ≥75% of simulations Precipitation decrease in ≥90% of simulations

Precipitation decrease in ≥75% of simulations

IPCC

2007

Sea-level rise will continue



Rainfall: wetter in the northwest and drier in the

southwest and east

Temperature: greatest warming in eastern and central Australia, with more extremely hot days and fewer frosts

Australia’s climate has changed


Future changes in average temperature

2030: 0.6 to 1.5°C warmer for a medium emissions scenario

2070: 1.0 to 2.5°C warmer for a low emissions scenario

2070: 2.2 to 5°C warmer for a high emissions scenario

Small changes in average temperature have a big effect on extreme daily temperaturesMedian warming in 2030, relative to

1990, for a medium emissions scenario

°C


Future changes in average rainfall

Annual rainfall in 2030• Southern Aus: 0 to -10%• Northern Aus: +5 to -10%

Median % rainfall change in 2030, relative to 1990, for a medium emissions scenario (stippling shows where at least 67% of models agree on the direction of change)

Largest rainfall decreases in winter and spring

Increased drought extent and frequency in the south

Heavier rain-storms in summer and autumn, little change in winter and spring


Stronger tropical cyclones, with uncertainty about changes in frequency

Larger oceanic storm surges, superimposed on sea-level rise

Future cyclones and storm surges


Water security problems are likely to intensify in southern and eastern AustraliaAround 9% less water in the northern Murray Darling Basin (MDB) by 2030, and 13% less in the southern MDB

Greater risks for coastal flooding from sea-level rise and storm surgesArea inundated by a 1-in-100 year storm surge in Cairns is likely to double by 2050

Significant loss of biodiversity in sensitive areasBy 2020, bleaching and damage to Great Barrier Reef equivalent to that in 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years

Potential impacts

Potential impacts


Greater risks to major infrastructure due to increases in extreme weather events, including bush fireMore damage to buildings, transport services, energy services, telecommunications and water services

More heat-related deaths for people aged over 65 1115 deaths per year at present in the 5 largest capital cities, increasing to 2300-2500 per year by 2020

Reduced production in agriculture and forestry in south and eastNational wheat yield: +10% to -50% by 2070Reduced grape quality by 2030


Adaptation • Preparing for the impacts of climate change;• Aim is to reduce the negative consequences,

take advantage of any possible opportunities.

Seeking solutions to the climate change challenge

Mitigation • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to

address the cause of climate change;

Responding to climate change


Low mitigation now

Higher impacts and adaptation later

Responding to climate change


High mitigation now

Low mitigation now

Higher impacts and adaptation later

Lower impacts and adaptation later


Thank you

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchPresenter’s namePresenter’s title

Phone: +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected]: www.cmar.csiro.au

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric ResearchPresenter’s namePresenter’s title

Phone: +61 3 9545 2176Email: [email protected]: www.cmar.csiro.au/group

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

Penny WhettonPhone: +61 3 9239 4535Email: [email protected]

Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au

Australia’s likely future climate and impacts

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