Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager...

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Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Transcript of Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager...

Page 1: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Australia’s Future WorkforceWorlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013

Ivan NevilleBranch ManagerLabour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Page 2: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Current labour market conditions• Over the year to February 2013, labour market

conditions have been relatively subdued:– Employment increased by 197,400 (1.7 per cent) to

11,628,300;– The unemployment rate edged up from 5.2 per cent to 5.4

per cent;– The participation rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to

stand at 65.3 per cent;– The Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) decreased by 0.7 per cent

in January 2013 and fell more sharply by 23.2 per cent over the year.

Page 3: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Sep-08 Feb-13

Unemployment rate 4.3% 5.4%

Annual employment growth 2.5% 1.7%

Participation rate 65.5% 65.3%

Long Term Unemployed 78,000 122,100*

IVI vacancy count 316,628 168,327*

Regional disparity 6.6% pts 8.2% pts*

Youth unemployment rate 8.8% 11.9%

Pre-GFC and now...

* These figures are for January 2013, the latest available data

Page 4: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Internationally, we are still performing well

11.9 11.7

10.6

8.17.7 7.7

7.0

5.4 5.3

4.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Euro area Italy France OECD US UK Canada Australia Germany Japan

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Page 5: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Gold Coast Greater Brisbane

Unemployment rate 5.3% 5.7%

Total employment 300,800 1,073,000

Annual employment growth -2.1% -0.2%

Participation rate 64.7% 67.8%

Long Term Unemployed 3200 12,900

Average duration of UE 30.3 weeks 39.8 weeks

Youth unemployment rate 10.5% 12.6%

Gold Coast and Greater Brisbane

Source: 3 month averaged original Labour Force Survey data to January 2013

Page 6: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Year on year employment growth, Gold Coast7.8

2.6

2.5

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.7

-0.9

-1.1

-1.4

-2.0

-2.4

-2.5

-3.6

-5.0

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Retail Trade

Financial and Insurance Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Mining

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Arts and Recreation Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Education and Training

Accommodation and Food Services

Other Services

Wholesale Trade

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Public Administration and Safety

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Administrative and Support Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Construction

Manufacturing

Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012

Page 7: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

National employment growth by industry

Actual Projected

Indexed, Nov 2002 = 100

Page 8: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Structural change in the labour market

Source: ABS trend employment data, November 2012

Page 9: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Job growth by skill5 years to November 2012

Source: DEEWR trend employment data, November 2012

Page 10: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Labour Market Outcomes by Educational Attainment for 25 to 34 year olds – Gold Coast

Source: 2011 Census of Population and Housing

Page 11: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Employability skills are importantSome willingness to hire someone without Job Specific Skills:

• Experience (8.8%)• Technical skills (6.2%)• Qualifications/licensing/registration (2.1%)

But reluctance to hire someone without employability skills:• Motivation (2.6%)• Communication skills (0.9%) • Organisational skills (0.5%) • English proficiency (0.5%) • Teamwork skills (0.3%)

Source: DEEWR, Survey of Recruitment Conditions in Capital Cities, March 2012

Page 12: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

National age profile by industry

77.8

69.7

68.6

68.5

67.7

67.5

65.9

65.5

64.1

61.3

60.5

59.0

58.5

57.3

57.1

55.4

53.5

51.8

51.7

42.8

22.2

30.3

31.4

31.5

32.3

32.5

34.1

34.5

35.9

38.7

39.5

41.0

41.5

42.7

42.9

44.6

46.5

48.2

48.3

57.2

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade

Financial and Insurance Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Arts and Recreation Services

Mining

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Construction

Other Services

ALL INDUSTRIES

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Manufacturing

Administrative and Support Services

Wholesale Trade

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Public Administration and Safety

Health Care and Social Assistance

Education and Training

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Share of employment (per cent)

15-44 45 and over

Source: 4 quarter averaged original Labour Force Survey data to November 2012

Page 13: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Going forward, some sectors will perform better than others

Source: 2012 DEEWR employment projections to November 2016

-85.6

4.6

5.5

6.7

7.8

17.0

17.7

17.9

18.4

18.5

30.9

31.2

42.0

50.4

61.3

103.7

108.2

131.2

241.8

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Manufacturing

Information Media and Telecommunications

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Arts and Recreation Services

Wholesale Trade

Administrative and Support Services

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Other Services

Financial and Insurance Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Public Administration and Safety

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Retail Trade

Education and Training

Mining

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Construction

Health Care and Social Assistance

Projected employment growth ('000)

Page 14: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Prevalence of skill shortages• Skill shortages are less

widespread than at any time over the past six years.

• Shortages are more prevalent for trades.

• Wastage (that is, people leaving the occupation for which they trained) is an issue for a number of trades. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Proportion of consistently surveyed occupations in shortage

ProfessionsTechnicians and TradesAll SERA Occupations

(%)

Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research

Page 15: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Persistent Shortages

Source: DEEWR Skill Shortage Research

Professionals• Civil Engineering Professionals• Midwives• Physiotherapist • Registered Nurses• Sonographer

Child Care occupations• Child Care Centre Manager • Child Care Worker

Trades Workers• Airconditioning and Refrigeration

Mechanic• Automotive Electrician• Chef/Cook • Hairdresser• Metal Machinist (First Class) • Motor Mechanics• Panelbeater • Pastrycook• Sheetmetal Trades Worker• Vehicle Painter

17 occupations have been in shortage for at least 9 of the past 10 years.

Page 16: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Growth occupationsEven in a subdued labour market, some occupations have shown solid growth over the past five years. These include:

• Registered Nurses• Sales Assistants (General)• Aged and Disabled Carers• Electricians• Contract, Program and Project Administrators• Education Aides• Metal Fitters and Machinists• Child Carers• Truck Drivers

Page 17: Australia’s Future Workforce Worlds of Work, Gold Coast 19 March 2013 Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch.

Further information

• For more information:– www.deewr.gov.au/lmip– www.deewr.gov.au/regionalreports– www.deewr.gov.au/australianjobs – www.joboutlook.gov.au– www.skillsinfo.gov.au– www.jobsearch.gov.au