Australia’s future landscapes Australia’s future landscapes – reflections on caution, – reflections on caution, hope, inspiration and hope, inspiration and transformation transformation

Jason Alexandra – Feb 2011

AcknowledgementsThanks to CCRPSI team that invited me here

Personal background and bias’sUrban upbringing in MelbourneSon of modern architectsEarly career in fine art and reforestationEnvironmental policy and advocacyFarming, research and consultingCatchment management and NRMInvolvement in LWA from inception to 2006Board member from 1996 to 2002Now working for Australian Governments in river basin management - MDBA

Climate change adds complexity and compounds stressors, new and old

challenges

Past and future landscapes – all shaped by “complex negotiations” between culture and

nature

Landscapes are highly evolved, co-evolved complex systems based on long term and complex “negotiations” between culture and nature

As complex systems, cultures and landscapes co evolve. People shape landscapes. Do landscapes shape cultures?

People are constantly making the landscapes of the future

Do landscapes shape cultures? If so how? What influences and drivers ?

People are making the landscapes of the future,In their own image of the ideal

A landscape future of despair?

Or repair, and a new mythology of hope?

Climate change: new challenges for landscape management, adding to old challenges. We need integrated planning and assessments

Complexity of climate and ecological systemsInvest in scientific capacity

- dynamic non steady state systemsCritical questions re thresholds and tipping

points

Difficulty in predicting tipping Difficulty in predicting tipping points in natural systems – eg points in natural systems – eg Aral SeaAral Sea

But if the scientific approach fails just try “force majeure” as an excuse.Or try finding incontrovertible evidence of theweather gods – I did!

Weather gods, fear and the laws of consequence

Nature

Nurture

Drought, flood, fire: Weather related disasters - a new myth of consequence

3. A scenario of transformational change built on policy, research and practice change: systemic innovation

A story from the future, inspiration built on extrapolating small successes

Vast savannas managed with ancient and innovative firing techniques – production, conservation, services, sequestration, culture

New perspective on old problems – ecological management and restoration at a bioregional scale.

Competitive advantage, seizing critical opportunities, building on two decades of reform; new industries and professions

Innovative design of structures and settlements to suit the climate – the best of applied evolutionary biology or bio-mimicry

Innovation in technology, system of governance Capitalism will find ways of adapting?

New wealth from old landscapes?

Services, sequestration, production, conservation, energy, biomass

4. Critical climate impactsGlobal challenges ahead - The approaching storm? Climate chaos!!!

Climate is hotter and drier

Global average temperature

Australian average temperature

Satellite estimate of soil moisture

Climate change projections – CSIRO (Chew)

• Large uncertainties in global warming projections – dependent on greenhouse gas emission and global climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gas concentrations.

• As a result of global warming- extreme rainfall will be more intense- some regions will have more rainfall, other regions will have less rainfall.

• Large uncertainties in GCM modelling of local rainfall response to global warming.

New uncertainty- end of stationarity.New uncertainty- end of stationarity. What if the recent drought is What if the recent drought is different?different? What if the factors that make Australia’s What if the factors that make Australia’s climate variable are vulnerable to global climate variable are vulnerable to global warning? What next? New states or warning? What next? New states or frequencyfrequency

Global ChallengesGlobal Challenges

Planning under deep uncertainty – stationarity is dead. Climate impact and risk management“Enlightenment” knowledge and engineering traditions assures control over nature

Appropriate institutions and policies for adaptation;Policy science integration?Robust analysis and auditing of performanceUnderstanding and acting on thresholds of change – not crash testing

Assessment of current settings

NRM policies reflect a deep desire to care for country – degradation is unacceptableThe nations values and relationships with

nature are changing.

“Australia no longer seen as cornucopia of resources for exploitation but in need of care”

But now “quarry Australia”

Responsibility for 60 million

years of separate evolution

International obligations to protect unique biodiversity

Biodiversity conservation Biodiversity conservation challengeschallengesGlobal treaty obligations - poor record but local totems and festivals– engage people, eg king fisher festival

Bringing sustainability to life,

beauty that takes your breath away

A contested history – new world nature replaced by agriculture – a vision of production:“The soil in these grassy flats was of the richest description: indeed the whole of the country seemed capable of being converted into good wheat land,…

and of being easily irrigated, at any time by the river. .... the genial southern breeze played over the reedy flats, which one day might be converted into clover-fields”. Major T.L. Mitchell, 1836

"Charles Darwin …. Visited Sydney in 1836. After an uncomfortable tramp over the Blue Mountains in a heat wave, he concluded that Australia could never become another America - its soil was too poor, its rains too unpredictable. Instead it must depend on becoming "the centre of commerce for the southern hemisphere and perhaps on her future manufactories.”

McCalman, The Age, 10 August 2002.

Culture, stories and values changeNew symbols devour old symbols

From unimproved land to nature refugeFrom incentives to clear to incentives to careRedefining the values of native vegetation –

including woodlands, arid and savanna systems

Landuse and water policy in transition

Australian water policy

1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought, royal commission, new dam”

1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows, unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation and cost recovery

1995 – MDB “Cap” on more extractions

National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms commitments to reform agenda, eflows and markets’ role in reallocating water

Large dams era 1920-1980’s – Large dams era 1920-1980’s – nation building and response to climate nation building and response to climate variability?variability?

1990’s new policy directions for land and 1990’s new policy directions for land and waterwater

“dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making land productive, run deep in the national psyche”

Major Water Storages on almost all tributaries in the Major Water Storages on almost all tributaries in the MDBMDB

Australia - an ancient nutrient poor landwith low population, limited industrial

development and poor water quality and ecological condition in most rivers

Australian ecosystems evolved to capture water and nutrients. When disturbed through clearing

for agriculture they leak salt, soils, nutrients

Modified catchments, nutrient and

suspended sediment loads and habitat

Very high nutrient and suspended sediment loads

Largely unmodified

River and catchment Condition

Cost and consequences of transforming an ancient continent

4M tonnes of sediment pa and phosphorus exports - about 13,000 tonnes pa

Most agricultural lands have erosion 5-50 times greater than pre-European settlement.

A landscape crisis – with many symptoms – eg lower lakes, Murray mouth, species loss, land degradation etc - continues, resounding call for farming revolution and new approaches to NRM

Climate turns old NRM challenges into new bigger challenges

Building on the lessons and policy experiments What did we learn?

Innovation systems can be applied to larger challenges of the 21 century – not just NRM … towards a transformative energy, food and carbon and conservation economy

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The challenges remain profound – water, energy, carbon, food - decoupling,

efficiency, a solar economy, the pressures of billions and the need for new scalable

solutions

There is value of thinking about Australia’s diverse and rich landscapes in new and different ways – a conservation and cultural economy – and thinking about our skills as valuable – stressed tested by drought, variability, distance.

Built from multi-culturalism, multi functionality

New approaches to old problems

Redefining landscape goals through NRM plans – redefining progressMeasuring the right indicators of successDreaming the country

Ecosystems services:Production, inspiration, reproduction, regulation,

provisioning etc

“Perceiving and valuing” Australia’s landscapes – beyond the poverty of a colonial, economic perspective of “resources” for exploitation or sustainable production but also including the wondrous, the celebration of nature, the cultural connections to place

copy

Redefining, reinterpreting, and even “redesigning Australia’s working landscapes…New ideas, new production systems, new climates

New industrial ecosystems

New instruments …incentives and legal innovations

The future is unknowable but approachableThe future of rural Australia – driven by demographics, global trends, peri-urban – demographics, structural change and NRM

Landscape management involves culture, practice and governance. We need innovation system and governance systems that work. New strategic R&D interventions – from problem solving to shared learning and system solutions

Australia’s national image of itself …was largely set in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, at a time when a combination of British imperial power and the industrial revolution gave us a privileged international position as commodity producers with secure markets. That world has gone forever. The global terms of trade aren’t going to suddenly flow back in the direction of commodity producers”. (Keating 2002)

Every future has an approaching storm?

Conclusion: develop capacity for robust landscape

policy, governance and management under uncertainty

Use scenarios - plan for extremes - eg low water availability and deeper drought/ bigger storms, climate change extremes

In the South, plan for long term reductions in rainfall and runoff

Accept a future of intense competition for natural resources

In face of uncertainty:• Institutional and policy innovation required • Build diverse, local adaptive capacity • Adopt policies to support adjustment and adaptation eg

water market reforms supports risk management and local adaptation

Learn to live as Australia’s

Water is a limited resource!Bush burns! Floodplains flood! Droughts dry out the country – 70 out of 200 years

Conclusions 2: Water and drought

Creativity, innovation, cultural diversity, innovationCreativity, innovation, cultural diversity, innovation

Celebrate successes and build new stories of hopeCelebrate successes and build new stories of hope

Creation stories not extinction storiesCreation stories not extinction stories

““There is magic in boldness” GoetheThere is magic in boldness” Goethe

“…the way people think of themselves …will affect the way they behave in the physical framework of their lives”. …“ideas are all Australia has … Not military might, or a large population, or unique resources. … Ideas are what must sustain our democracy, nurture our community and drive our economy into new areas (Paul Keating (2002)

Australia’s diverse bioregional landscapes will evolve in the next two hundred years in directions set by profound shifts in the underpinning cultural, institutional and economic relationships with nature, along with climate change and a reduced abundance of resources such as fossil fuels and fresh water

The value shifts of the early 21 century may become recognised The value shifts of the early 21 century may become recognised as the end of the frontier and the beginning of the settler society. as the end of the frontier and the beginning of the settler society. A new dominant culture emerges based on respect and care for A new dominant culture emerges based on respect and care for nature in this ancient continent. New symbols and stories of nature in this ancient continent. New symbols and stories of hope, of restoration are emerging. These signs of hope inspire hope, of restoration are emerging. These signs of hope inspire bolder action and bigger visions: eventually the momentum will bolder action and bigger visions: eventually the momentum will be unstoppable. (Alexandra and Riddington, Futures be unstoppable. (Alexandra and Riddington, Futures Vol 39, 2006)2006)