Australian Rainfall & Runoff Revision Research...

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Australian Rainfall and RunoffA guide to runoff estimation

Australian Rainfall &Runoff Revision

Research ProjectsMark Babister

James E Ball

Janice Green

Australian Rainfall and Runoff A guide to runoff estimation

AGENDA

• Current Status

• Update Program

• Project Update

• Administration


WHAT IS AR&R?

• What is AR&R?

– Guideline for the calculation of flows andflood behaviour

– AR&R is not prescriptive

– AR&R is a guideline document as thenature of hydrologic problems vary

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What is AR&R used for? -Infrastructure


What is AR&R used for? -Infrastructure


What is AR&R used for? –Flood Planning Levels

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What is AR&R used for? –Urban Redevelopment


What is AR&R used for? –Protection


What is AR&R used for? –Protection

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What is AR&R used for? -Environmental


What is AR&R used for? –Environmental


AR&R CURRENT STATUS

Points to note are

• Over 20 years since last revision with onlyone chapter revised in that period.

• Significantly longer records now available.

• IFD data over 25 years old.

• Written before a computer on everyEngineers desk

• Climate change concerns

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARR

ARR87

• It should be noted that no consideration has been given to the long term effectsof climatic change, a topic which is receiving increasing attention in the scientificliterature.

• “Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on longterm projects based on the assumption that past climatic data, withoutmodification, are a reliable guide to the future. This is no longer a goodassumption since the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases areexpected to cause a significant warming of the global climate in the next century.It is a matter of urgency to refine estimates of future climate conditions toimprove these decisions.”

• As no reliable estimates of climatic change are available, it has been assumedthat the statistical characteristics of heavy rainfall and floods remain constantthroughout the design life of projects.



ARR87

• There is evidence that a progressive increase is to be expected in thetemperature of the earth, the lower atmosphere and the oceans as a result of the“greenhouse effect”

• “One consequence of a global temperature rise would be an increase in meansea levels, predominantly as a result of thermal expansion of the water in theoceans. A report prepared by Hoffman et al. (1983) has suggested a possibleworldwide increase in sea levels of 0.25-0.40 m by the year 2025, and 0.50-1.50m by 2080. Pittock has reported that the Villach Statement suggests thepossibility of an increase of 0.80 ± 0.60 m by a few decades after 2030, whilstdrawing attention to the very substantial uncertainties associated with suchestimates. “

• Accordingly, in the planning of substantial works of long expected service life,consideration must be given by the designer to the effects of sea level riseswhich may occur within the effective life span of the works.



1999 Extreme Flood Chapter Update

• At time of writing (1999) the Bureau of Meteorology do notconsider the influence of climatic trends when preparingPMP estimates, and at present there is no knownprocedure for the reliable incorporation of climate changescenarios into flood estimates.

• Until better information becomes available, anyassessment of the impact of climate change on flood risksis thus likely to be speculative and not suited for generaldesign considerations.

• If, however, procedures are subsequently developed thatare shown to have a scientifically credible basis then itmay be appropriate to allow for the effects of climatechange in the design process.

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AR&R REVISION

Basic reasons for revision include

• Changing focus of hydrologic design oranalysis problem;

• Development of new approaches;

• Inconsistencies in existingrecommended approaches; and

• Need to give explicit advice on ClimateChange


ARR REVISION

New problems include

• Environmental flows – estimation of flowmagnitude during frequent events e.g. 1year flow;

• System analysis rather than point analysis(failure analysis) – particularly relevant tourban systems, transport networks;

• How risk changes with Climate Changeand

• Evacuation.

Australian Rainfall and RunoffA guide to runoff estimation

Current design methodCurrent design method

Rainfall RunoffModels

Hydrodynamic Models

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CURRENT ISSUES

• Problems with AVM temporal patterns.

• Problems with Regional Methods.

• Spatial patterns not considered.

• Continuous simulation and Monte-Carlosimulation becoming practical but notconsidered.


CURRENT ISSUES

• Increasing complexity in catchmentmodelling due to increasing complexityof problems.

• Flood management, e..g. Evacuationtimes, etc, not considered.

• Problem with estimating basinperformance


CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES

• How will IFDs and other rainfallparameters change over time.

• Changing design performance over time

• Joint probability of rainfall and oceanlevels (large % of population live in thiszone) and change in dominate floodmechanism.

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CLIMATE CHANGEKURNELL, NSW


PROCESS

• 4 yr program of projects to fillknowledge gaps.

• Parallel with updating of the document


TIMELINE OF REVISION PROJECTS

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AR&R FUNDING

Funds needed and their sources are

• EA contribution - $6.46m

• Contributions totaling $10.123m

– Stage 1 (2008/09)$2M (from Dept of Climate Change)

– Stage 2 (2009/10)$2M (from Dept of Climate Change and $1Mfrom BoM),

– Stage 3 (2010/12)$6.123M ($1M from BoM, $1M from BoMinkind, remainder unknown)


AR&R FUNDING

Stage 1 is due for completion at end ofJune 2009

– 10 of the 21 Projects will be started.

– 2 projects are scheduled for completion.

Stage 2 commences in July 2009 and isdue to end in June 2010

– 19 of the 21 projects will have started.

– 5 Projects are scheduled for completion.


ADMINISTRATION

• Steering Committee

– Role: provide advice to Engineers Australia, in thedischarge of its commitments and obligationsunder the Funding Agreement with theDepartment of Climate Change,

– Explore funding options for Stages 2 and 3.

• Technical Committee

- Role: provides technical advice on individualprojects, including scope, program, proposal andreview.

- Each project is overseen by at least one memberof Committee

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ADMINISTRATION

• Technical Committee

– Chair Associate Professor James Ball, Editor ARR,UTS

• Members:

– Mark Babister, MIEAust CPEng, Chair NCWE, WMAwater

– Associate Professor, George Kuczera, University of Newcastle

– Professor Martin Lambert, University of Adelaide

– Dr Rory Nathan, SKM

– Dr Bill Weeks, QLD DMR

– Associate Professor Ashish Sharma, UNSW

– Dr Michael Boyd, Technical Project Manager


ARR RESEARCH PROJECTS

The projects are1. Development of rainfall

intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) informationacross the country

2. Spatial patterns of rainfall3. Temporal patterns of

rainfall4. Continuous rainfall

sequences at a point5. Regional flood methods6. Loss models for catchment

simulation7. Baseflow for catchment

simulation

8. Use of continuoussimulation for design flowdetermination

9. Urban drainage systemhydraulics

10. Appropriate safety criteriafor people

11. Blockage of hydraulicstructures

12. Selection of an approach13. Rational Method

developments14. Large to extreme floods in

urban areas15. Two-dimensional

simulation in urban areas


ARR RESEARCH PROJECTS

16.Storm patterns for use in designevents

17.Channel loss models

18.Interaction of coastal processesand severe weather events

19.Selection of climate changeboundary conditions

20.Risk assessment and design life

21.IT Delivery and Communicationstrategies

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ARR RESEARCH PROJECT 1

Development of rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) informationacross the country

The outcomes from this project will be

– Provision of updated information on currentIFD relationships; and

– Provision of likely changes to IFDrelationships arising from Climate Change.



Development of rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) informationacross the country

– Update



Spatial patterns of rainfall

The outcomes from this project are

– Development and testing of ArealReduction Factors (ARFs);

– Development and testing of techniques forspatially distributing rainfall for bothhistorical and design events; and

– An assessment of likely changes in thespatial pattern of rainfall arising fromclimate change.

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• Current approaches to distributingrainfall are variable with differingdegrees of accuracy.

• Current edition of ARR does notconsider problem.



A number ofalternativeapproaches havebeen applied to theUpper ParramattaCatchment.


Actual Distribution Thiessen Polygons IDW

Kriging Polynomial Spline


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Temporal patterns of rainfall


– The development and testing of newtemporal patterns of rainfall for use indesign situations; and

– An assessment of likely changes in thetemporal pattern of rainfall arising fromclimate change.



• Current approach in ARR is based onAVM.

• Known problems include

– Internal bursts

– Preference for particular patterns to bedominant

– Need to filter patterns

– Only bursts and not storms

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RAINFALL PATTERNS

Varga (2009) has been investigating thisproblem and has developed analternative approach to the AVM patternswhich is suitable for climate changeconsideration.

Application needs recognition that multiplestorm patterns need to be considered.


RAINFALL PATTERNS

Approach is

• Random walk generation – multiplealternative patterns;

• Storm characteristion – recognisespatterns differ between generationmechanisms; and

• Considers total storm – removes issueof burst location in a storm event.


RAINFALL PATTERNS

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ARR DESIGN PATTERNS 10YEAR ARI



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REAL STORMS

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Most intense internal burst of real stormsmoved to ARI 100 years at Sydney Obs. Hill station

REAL STORMS


Most intense internal burst of real stormsmoved to ARI 100 years at Sydney Obs. Hill station

REAL STORMS


Random storm at Sydney Obs. Hill stationwith most intense burst fixed at ARI 100 years

RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM



RANDOM STORM

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RANDOM STORM


RAINFALL PATTERNS



Future activities

• Specialised workshop completed lastweek.

• Discussion paper to be prepared onbasis of that workshop.

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Continuous rainfall sequences at a point


– Validation of the use of continuous rainfallsequences for estimation of flood flowswith a desired; and

– Assessment of likely changes in rainfallsequences arising from climate change.



Continuous Rainfall Sequences at a Point

– Started in January 2009

– Techniques considered include

• Transition probability matrices

• Non-parameteric approaches

• DRIP style approaches

– Report on Stage 1 delivered and currentlybeing reviewed.



Regional flood methods


– Techniques and guidelines for peak flowestimation at ungauged sites acrossAustralia.

– Approach should be independent ofclimate regime.

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PROJECT TEAM

• Project Team:– Dr Ataur Rahman (Project Leader)– Mr Khaled Haddad (Project Researcher)– Mr Erwin Weinmann– Professor George Kuczera– A/Prof Ashish Sharma

• State Representatives:– Victoria: Mr Erwin Weinmann– NSW and ACT: Dr Ataur Rahman– Qld: Dr William Weeks– WA: Mr Jerome Goh– SA: Dr David Kemp– Tasmania: Dr Fiona Ling– NT: Mr Lakshman Rajaratnam


POTENTIAL METHODS

• Quantile Regression Technique (QRT)using

– using ordinary least squares (OLS); and

– generalised least squares (GLS)]

• Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM)

• Parameter Regression Technique (PRT)

– predict parameters of a probabilitydistribution using catchment characteristics.


PROJECT 5 - Victoria

• 131 catchments with at least 25 yearsof streamflow records.

• PRM, OLS and GLS methods applied.

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PROJECT 5 – Victoria

Locations of the study 133 catchments


PROJECT 5 - NSW

• 96 stations with a minimum 25 years ofstreamflow data

• PRM, OLS and GLS methods applied.


PROJECT 5 - NSW

Locations of the 96 stations

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PROJECT 5 - Tasmania

• 44 stations selected from Tasmania.

• Streamflow data have been prepared.

• At-site flood frequency analysiscompleted.

• Catchment data abstraction are inprogress.

• Some additional stations will beprovided by BOM and DPIW.


PROJECT 5 - South Australia

• SA team (Guna Hewa, Trevor Daniell andDavid Kemp) have selected 35 catchments.

• Streamflow data have been prepared.

• At-site FFA has been completed (GEV-LHmoments method).

• Catchment data set nearly ready.


PROJECT 5 - Queensland

• Development of a new procedure forQueensland.

• Based on QRT.

• Similar procedure as other states.

• Uses all recorded streamflow data forthe state.

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PROJECT 5 - Queensland

• All streamgaugeswith more than 10years of data.

• “Good” data.

• Less than 1,000km2.

• 289 stations.

• Database prepared.


PROJECT 5 - NT

• Methods proposed by Bill Weeks andLakshman Rajaratnam (2005).

• Based on Weeks et al. (2002). “AliceSprings – Darwin Railway: RegionalFlood frequency Assessment”.Hydrology Symp., Melbourne.

• This may be considered as therecommended technique for NT.


RATING CURVE ACCURACY

• Extrapolation of rating curves beyond largestmeasured flow can introduce significant errors

• Rating curve accuracy is expressed by

– QE = annual maximum flood value estimated fromrating curve

– QM = maximum measured flow used to constructrating curve

– RR ≈ 1 => no rating curve extrapolation error

M

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Q

QRRRatioRating )(

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• Typical example

Likely Rating Curve Error - 222202

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RATING RATIO


• A rating ratio of 20 appears reasonable.

• Any station with RR > 20 excluded.

Histogram of Rating Ratio Values

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RATING RATIO



Regional Flood Estimation Methods

– Multi-year project with the aim of providinga nationally consistent and coherentmethodology for estimating flood quantilesin rural catchments.

– All states participating.

– Report from Stage 1 received and currentlybeing reviewed.

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Loss models for catchment simulation

Outcomes from this project will be

– Statistical loss model parameters to ensureAEP neutrality; and

– Deterministic (?) loss model parameters forsituations where AEP neutrality is not arequirement.



Current status is

• Discussion paper being prepared.

• Project workshop to held shortly.

Project scheduled to start during Stage 2of the ARR Research Projects.



Baseflow for Catchment Simulation

– Aim is to provide guidance on likelybaseflow conditions when the flood flow isnot the majority of the flow (e.g. someenvironmental flood flow problems).

– Multi-year project.

– Report on Stage 1 expected shortly

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Use of continuous simulation for designflow determination

The outcome from this project will beguidance on when and how continuoussimulation can be used for estimation offlows with a given AEP.



Current status is

• Discussion paper (combined withProjects 12 and 20) is being prepared.

• Project workshop to be held shortly.

Project scheduled to commence in Stage2 of ARR Research Projects.



Urban Drainage System Hydraulics

– Project aims are

• Collating information on structures within urbandrainage systems

• Both quantity and quality devices will beconsidered

• Provision of guidance on where moreinformation is needed.

Stage 1 report received and currentlybeing reviewed.

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Appropriate safety criteria for people

Arising from this project will be presentationof guidelines about personnel safety inflood situations.



Current status is

– Project under progress since late 2008.

– Has confirmed reliability of UNSW datawith other data collected from around theworld – significant implications forassessing safety of people in floods.

Draft Report expected shortly.



Blockage of hydraulic structures

The outcome here will be guidance on theblockage of structures during floodevents.

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Current status is

– First stage was collating available data forboth urban and rural catchments.

– Number of workshops have been held onthis project.

Report on Stage 1 received and nowbeing reviewed.



• Bill Weeks, Queensland DMR.

• Monique Retallick, WMAwater.

• James Ball, UTS.

• Ted Rigby, Rienco.

• Pas Silveri, Wollongong CityCouncil.

• Anthony Barthelmess,Cardno Forbes Rigby.

• Paul Doherty, Melbourne Water.

• Bill Lipp, SA Dept of Transport,Environment and Infrastructure.

• Grant Witheridge,Catchments & Creeks.

• Alastair Peddie, Newcastle CityCouncil.

• George Kuczera, University ofNewcastle.

• Geoff O’Loughlin, Anstad PtyLtd.

• Bob Adamson, Brisbane CityCouncil.

• Bob Keller, Monash University.

Highlighted are significantcontributors.

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• Blockage causes a range of problems indrainage systems, as well as seriousdamage at times.

• It is poorly documented in publicationssuch as ARR.

• This project is aimed at improvingguidelines.

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Debris in Wollongong - 1998


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Debris on Bridges in Qld


Debris in Newcastle 2007

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MAJOR ISSUES

• Causes of the blockage.

– This includes the type of material that may causethe blockage, and the amount of materialtransported and the risk of collection by thedrainage infrastructure.

• Impacts of blockage.

– Blockage can cause damage to infrastructure andrisk to people as well as causing it to operatebelow capacity.

– Details of how this happens should be considered.

– Approaches to minimising the risk of blockageneed to be considered.

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MAJOR ISSUES

• Assessment methods.

– There are some rules of thumb on how blockage canbeen assessed, which may be a percentage blockage.

– The mechanism of the blockage could be reviewed andthe impacts of different mechanisms need to bedeveloped.

– The assessment of risk of blockage and theconsequences would be covered here.

• Analysis methods.

– The hydraulic analysis of drainage systems needs toincorporate appropriate blockage mechanisms andamounts of debris.

– Suitable parameters and techniques need to bedeveloped.


MAJOR ISSUES

• Maintenance approaches.

– Minimising the amount of blockage wouldbe the best approach, but if this isimpossible, suitable maintenancemeasures need to be considered.

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Procedure – Stage 1 (2008/09)

• Workshop of selected experts contributed.

• Report on preliminary assessment of issueswill be published as Stage 1 report.

• Paper submitted for Hydrology & WaterResources Symposium in November.

• Feedback and additional contributions soughtfrom stakeholders.


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Procedure - Stage 2 (2009/10)

• Following input on Stage 1 report,further work will continue as Stage 2.

• Stage 2 report will include.

– Refinement of Stage 1 findings.

– Recommendations of procedures andparameters for incorporation of blockageinto hydraulic designs.



Selection of an approach

The aim of this project is to test methods forselection between alternative flood flowestimation techniques.

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Current status is

• Discussion paper (combined withProjects 8 and 20) is being prepared.

• Project workshop to be held shortly.

Project scheduled to commence in Stage2 of ARR Research Projects.



Rational Method developments

The expected outcome is the collection ofinformation pertinent to the RationalMethod and its application in Australia.



Rational Method Developments

– Aim is to provide guidance on use of theRational Method including

• Recent studies (e.g. WP Research inCanberra)

• Inconsistencies in recommended approaches

• Uncertainty in predicted flows

– Rational Method is well used but seriouslyquestioned by many, predictions rarelyconfirmed by reference to gauged data.

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Recent progress

• Literature review complete and reportprepared;

• Analysis of reliability commenced; and

• Catchment data being mined but notsuccessfully yet due to lack of suitablegauged catchments.



Large to extreme floods in urban areas

Development of accepted approaches forestimation of extreme and large floodevents in urban areas is the focus here.

Not due to start till Stage 3 (2010-2011).



Two-dimensional simulation in urbanareas

The aim here is to develop guidelines for theuse of these two-dimensional modellingsystems in urban environments.

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Current status is

– Project commenced in September with aworkshop at Hydraulics Conference inDarwin.

– Used a Wiki for general input by industryand researchers into a report framework.

– Meetings have been held regularly and thisproject has developed significantly.

Stage 1 report expected shortly.



1. Introduction2. 2D Conceptualisation3. Overview of Modelling

approaches4. Planning the Modelling

Process5. Data Requirements6. Model Schematising /

Implementation / Assembly7. Calibration Process8. Interpretation of Results9. 1D/2D models10. Direct Rainfall

11. Current Issues with 2DModelling

– Supercritical flow– Adaptive timesteps/run times– Wetting/Drying– Valid Parameter

ranges/envelopes– Eddy Viscosity– Very shallow and very deep

flow– Numerical precision and

accuracy issues– Sub grid features– Structures– Buildings and fences– DTM Considerations

12. Recommendations andConclusions

13. Glossary14. Models



Project has demonstrated the desire ofthe profession for provision of qualityguidance

– Major software suppliers have beeninvolved;

– Major users have been involved; and

– Academics and researchers have beeninvolved.

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Current status is

• Draft report circulated to participants,expected to be submitted shortly as aformal draft for independent review.

• Draft report without figures isapproximately 280 pages.



Storm patterns for use in design events

Arising from this project will be– Information regarding the spatial extent of

individual storm bursts and their associatedprobabilities;

– Information about the correlation structure ofindividual storm bursts within the one catchmentarea and the associated probabilities;

– Evaluation of the influence of the spatio-temporalrainfall model on a drainage system;

– An assessment of the uncertainties associatedwith this approach; and

– A qualitative assessment of likely changes arisingfrom climate change.



Current status:

– Discussion paper prepared;– Workshop held last week;– Future developments

• Report on Workshop being written;• BoM radar downscaling approach to be

investigated; and• Spatial-temporal model of rainfall based on

clustered point processes to be considered also.

Due to start in Stage 2.

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Channel loss models

This project will result in the development ofmodels and parameters for estimation ofchannel losses.



Current status is

– Discussion paper is being prepared inconjunction with Project 6.

– Workshop to be held shortly.

Due to start in Stage 2.



Interaction of coastal processes andsevere weather events

Guidelines for assessment of the interaction(joint probability) between storms andocean levels.

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PROJECT 18

Current status is

– Discussion paper is being prepared. Draftreceived and review comments provided,Final version expected shortly.

– Workshop is being developed.

– Discussions between Australian andInternational researchers being held akso.



Selection of climate change boundaryconditions

The outcome of this project will bedevelopment of suitable advice onselecting appropriate planning horizonsand climate change projections.



Risk assessment and design life

Outcomes from this project will be anapproach suitable for assessing theinteraction between the design life of astructure and its vulnerability to floodflows.

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Current status of the project is

– Discussion paper is being prepared inconjunction with projects 8 and 12.

– Workshop to be held shortly.



IT Delivery and Communication strategies

The outcomes from this project will be thedissemination of rainfall and hydrologicdata and its analysis through anevaluated communication strategyemploying printed reference material, webdelivery, dedicated software tools, andpublic education modules.


ADMINISTRATION

• Getting involved

– Mail lists

– Regional focus groups

– Opportunities for input

• Updates

– Draft books on www.arr.org.au

– Information on www.arr.org.au

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BOOK LAYOUT

Current and proposed layouts are

• 1987 Version

– 14 Chapters in 1 book.

• 1997 version

– 14 Chapters split over 8 books.

• 4th Edition – 2012

– 39 Chapters distributed over 9 books


BOOK LAYOUT

Book I - SCOPE ANDPHILOSOPHY

1. INTRODUCTION

2. RANGE OFAPPLICATIONS

3. RISK BASED DESIGN

4. CLIMATE CHANGE

Book II - APPROACHES TORUNOFF ESTIMATION

1. INTRODUCTION

2. HYDROLOGIC DATA

3. RANGE OF TECHNIQUES

4. SELECTION OF ANAPPROACH


BOOK LAYOUT

Book III - RAINFALLESTIMATION

1. INTRODUCTION

2. SYNTHETIC RAINFALLBURSTS

3. SYNTHETIC STORMS

4. CONTINUOUS RAINFALLSEQUENCES

Book IV - PEAK FLOWESTIMATION

1. INTRODUCTION

2. AT-SITE FLOOD FLOWFREQUENCY ANALYSIS

3. REGIONAL METHODS FORFLOOD FLOW ESTIMATION

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BOOK LAYOUT

Book V - HYDROGRAPHESTIMATION

1. INTRODUCTION

2. EVENT BASED MODELS

3. CONTINUOUS RUNOFFESTIMATION

4. LOSS MODELS

5. BASEFLOW ESTIMATION

6. SURFACE RUNOFFESTIMATION

Book VI - FLOW HYDRAULICS1. INTRODUCTION2. BASIC ASPECTS OF OPEN

CHANNEL HYDRAULICS3. HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES4. UNSTEADY FLOW AND

NUMERICAL MODELS


BOOK LAYOUT

BOOK VII – APPLICATION OFCATCHMENT MODELLINGSYSTEMS

1. INTRODUCTION2. CATCHMENT MODELLING

PRINCIPLES3. SELECTION,

CALIBRATION, ANDVALIDATION OFPARAMETERS

4. RISK AND UNCERTAINTYDETERMINATION

Book VIII – LARGE TOEXTREME FLOODESTIMATION

1. INTRODUCTION2. ??This book is the most recently

modified and hence lessconsideration has beengiven to the chapter layout.


BOOK LAYOUT

Book IX – RUNOFF IN URBANAREAS

1. INTRODUCTION2. ANTHROPOGENIC

INFLUENCES3. URBAN DRAINAGE

CONCEPTS4. DRAINAGE SYSTEM

HYDROLOGY1. RATIONAL METHOD

5. DRAINAGE SYSTEMHYDRAULICS

6. RUNOFF DETENTION ANDRETENTION

7. SAFETY CRITERIA8. URBAN DRAINAGE

MODELLING

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