8/4/2019 Australian Dollar Outlook 08/29/2011

1/1

FX DAILY REPORT MONDAY 29TH AUGUST 2011

BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED GPO BOX 4718MELBOURNE VIC 3001AUSTRALIA

TOLL FREE 1800 003 815INFO@BELLPOTTER.COM.AUWWW.BELLPOTTER.COM.AU

ABN 25 006 390 772AFS LICENCE NO.243480

Bell FX Currency Outlook

The much anticipated speech by US Federal ReserveChairman Ben Bernanke to potentially stimulate USeconomic activity yielded no clear cut policy actions,however enough was said to strengthen US equitymarkets and push the AUD firmly into the mid 1.0500s.

Australia: Although some were disappointed that another round ofquantitative easing was not announced, Bernanke did say the next FOMCmeeting in September would be extended for an extra day to considerfurther monetary policy measures. Noting the present circumstances didnot warrant further action at the moment, US equity markets saw this as asign of relief, and the Dow finished up 1.2% to 11,285, S&P 500 advancedby 1.5% to 1,177 and NASDAQ jumped 2.5%. This was after majorEuropean share indices were either flat or down, with the German market,

especially banks and insurers, copping the brunt of the falls because ofthe ban on short selling on some European bourses. Gold rebounded by3% to US$1828 an ounce after the steep falls of previous days, as thecommodity currencies rebounded, and that the possibility of QEIII was stillon the US Feds agenda. Oil held steady in light of a generally weakerUSD, finishing at US$85 a barrel for WTI crude. RBA Governor Stevensscomments on Friday afternoon, where he reminded the market thatinflation in Australia is being closely watched, led most analysts to believethe RBA is more likely to raise interest rates in the next 12 months (ratherthan lower them). This provided local support for the AUD. We see arelatively quiet day ahead, with a f irm tone for now.

Majors:US Q2 GDP was revised downward from its previously revised

1.3% figure to 1%. With the effects of Hurricane Irene (which struck theeast coast of the US on the weekend) likely to impact short term economicactivity, this was again a sobering note that the US economy is growing,but at a very slow pace. It is too early to assess the damage Irene hasdone but the level of rebuilding required might provide a benefit to growthas we have seen in other natural disasters. All financial markets based inNew York City should be open for business on Monday. Later today themarkets eyes will be on ECB President Trichet, who be speaking and whomay announce further sovereign debt purchases by ECB.

Economic Calendar

29 AUG AU HIA New Home Sales JUL

US Personal Income / Spending JUL

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity AUGUK August Bank Holiday

Important Disclaimer This may affect your legal rights: This publication has been issued on the basis that it is only for the

information and exclusive use of the particular person to whom it is provided by Bell Potter Securities Limited trading in the foreign

exchange markets as Bell Foreign Exchange (ACN 004 845 710). As this publication is a private communication to clients, it is not

intended for public circulation or for use by any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Foreign Exchange. The Information

contained in this publication has been obtained from sources considered and believed to be both reliable and accurate, and no

responsibility is accepted for any error or omission, that may have occurred, or for any opinion expressed. The Information is general in

nature, and does not take into account, the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential reader. It does not

constitute, and should not be relied on, as financial or investment advice, or recommendations (expressed or implied), and is not an

invitation to take up securities or other financial products or services. No decision should be made on the basis of the information without

seeking expert financial advice. Ranges in this publication are indicative ranges over the past 24 hours. Last is around 9.00am Sydney.

Please speak with Bell Foreign Exchange if you require l atest pricing and ranges.

Kimberly Limbert 08 8224 2725 klimbert@bellfx.com.au Bill Giffen 02 9255 7473 bgiffen@bellfx.com.auSally Fisher 08 8224 2771 sfisher@bellfx.com.au Geoff Louw 02 8243 3502 glouw@bellfx.com.au

Nick White 08 8224 2770 nwhite@bellfx.com.au Bronson Livingston 02 8243 3503 blivingston@bellfx.com.au

Scott Fleming 03 9235 1912 sfleming@bellfx.com.au Tracey Warren 02 9255 7294 twarren@bellfx.com.au

Stephen Blampied 03 9235 1960 sblampied@bellfx.com.au Scott Hill 02 8243 3504 shill@bellfx.com.au

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11

Todays Forecast Range

USD 1.0475 1.0625

Currencies Last High Low

AUD / USD 1.0575 1.0593 1.0419

USD / JPY 76.75 77.70 76.61

EUR / USD 1.4485 1.4601 1.4328

GBP / USD 1.6345 1.6382 1.6263

NZD / USD 0.8400 0.8420 0.8265

AUD Crosses Last High Low

AUD / JPY 81.15 81.34 80.72

AUD / EUR 0.7295 0.7304 0.7248

AUD / GBP 0.6460 0.6493 0.6399

AUD / NZD 1.2580 1.2624 1.2565AUD / CAD 1.0380 1.0394 1.0302

Australian Rates Last Previous

Official Cash 4.79

3 Month Bill 4.84 4.85

10 Year Bond 4.40 4.36

US Rates Last Previous

Fed Funds 0.25

3 Month Libor 0.323 0.319

10 Year Bond 2.19 2.25

Commodities Last - / + (%)

Gold (US$ / oz) 1797.30 1.9

Oil (WTI) US$/bbl) 85.37 0.1

CRB Index 335.25 1.0

Equities Last - / + (%)

ASX 200 4200 -0.3

Dow Jones 11285 1.2

FTSE 5130 0.0

Hang Seng 19583 -0.9

Nikkei 8798 0.3