Australia china acedp mdba breifing final

Australia’s Murray Darling – an overview

Jason Alexandra February 2011 Pondi story 40k years

Oldest continuous culture

60 million years of separate evolution

Structure – 1. Nature of the basin

2. A brief history of water policy

3. The Basin Plan

4. Challenges ahead, including climate change

6. Some tentative conclusions

Energy rich and water poor – learn to live like Australians

Accept the nature of the place

Water is a strategic resource (and lack of it a limitation). Excellence in water governance is a strategic opportunity.

1 The nature of river basins

River systems are highly evolved, co-evolved complex systems based on long term and complex “negotiations” between culture and nature

Nature & Nurture

Its today news ….but it’s a bigger, longer story of water reform

What is the MDB? A large flat semi arid basin. A hydro-‐graphic unit. An icon? An example of coopera?ve federalism and a challenge to it? A 21 C test bed for ESD?

Distribu?on of Australia’s surface run-‐off

>1 million km2 = 1/7th of Australia, size of France and Spain Covers 5 States and Territories >population of 2 million people > 40% agricultural produce

Understanding the basics eg average rainfall and runoff generation

9

Representa?on of average flow volumes

Flow genera?on

A river, a basin, a story, a nation and its symbols

A changing relationship with nature

Murray mouth, Coorong and lower lakes

Climate change: adds new challenges for basin management, adding to old challenges.

We need integrated planning and assessments

Complexity of climate and ecological systems Invest in scientific capacity

- dynamic non steady state systems Critical questions re thresholds and tipping

points

Cumulative effects of water and land use at a basin scale?

Cumula?ve, compounding and synergis?c effects

Difficulty in predic?ng and avoiding ?pping points in natural systems – eg

Aral Sea

Australia - an ancient nutrient poor land with low population, limited industrial

development and poor water quality and ecological condition in most rivers

Australian ecosystems evolved to capture water and nutrients. When disturbed through clearing

for agriculture they leak salt, soils, nutrients

Modified catchments, nutrient and suspended

sediment loads and habitat

Very high nutrient and suspended sediment loads

Largely unmodified

River and catchment Condition

Cost and consequences of transforming an ancient continent

4M tonnes of sediment pa and phosphorus exports - about 13,000 tonnes pa

Most agricultural lands have erosion 5-50 times greater than pre-European settlement.

Biodiversity conserva?on challenges Global treaty obliga?ons

Responsibility for 60 million years

of separate evolution

International obligations to protect biodiversity - creation stories or extinction stories?

Ramsar wetlands - Australia’s international obligations? 16 in MDB

Chowilla floodplain Barmah-Millewa

Forest

Macquarie Marshes

Gwydir wetlands

Lowbidgee floodplain

Narran Lakes

Coorong Kulkyne Lakes

•  ~28,000 •  6.3 million ha •  98% floodplains •  ~3% protected

copy

headline “Successive Governments sponsored

closer settlement and intensive irrigation development, with “dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making

land productive, running deep in the national psyche” (Lines 1994) and

notwithstanding, punishing droughts and misconceptions about the severity of the

natural constraints to settlement and production (Taylor 1940).

Large dams era 1920-‐1980’s – na?on building and response to climate variability?

1990’s new policy direc?ons

“dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and making land productive, run deep in the national psyche”

A fully regulated/engineered system

Major Water Storages on almost all tributaries in the MDB

Periods of water diversion development (Kingsford)

1890 1912 1934 1956 1978 2000

6,000,000

12,000,000

18,000,000

Capa

city

(ML)

Government funded development of dams

Murray Darling

An Irriga3on Drought – several dry years

June 2008 2,220 GL

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GL/year

Growth in Basin diversions

29

Irrigation crop and technology changes

Water use efficiency through technology, Knowledge of crop demands – eg partial root zone drying

1901 Cons3tu3on

Building on past reform

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1914 River Murray Commission

1987 Murray-‐Darling

Basin Commission

1990’s Cap on Diversions

& Water markets

2004 Na3onal Water

Ini3a3ve &

The Living Murray First Step

2007 Commonwealth

Water Act &

Murray-‐Darling Basin Authority

2008 COAG

Agreement

2010 Guide to the

proposed Basin Plan

A brief history of Australian water policy

  1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought, royal commission, new dam”

  1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows, unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation and cost recovery

  1995 – MDB “Cap” on more extractions   National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms

commitments to reform agenda, eflows and markets’ role in reallocating water

Key Elements of the Basin Plan

Released October 2010!!!

Objec?ves of the proposed Plan

•  Ecological health -‐ op?mise social, cultural and economic wellbeing

•  Sustainable limits on take

•  Environmental resilience

•  Appropriate water quality •  Efficient and effec?ve water markets

35

Basin Plan must contain 15 elements, including:

•  Sustainable diversion limits (SDLs)

•  Cri?cal human water needs

•  Water trading rules

•  Environmental Watering Plan

•  Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan

Water Act requirements

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In preparing the Plan, the Authority must take into account :

•  best available science and socio-‐economic analysis and

•  the principles of ecologically sustainable development

Water Act requirements

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How it will work

Annual Management Long Term Planning

SDL Compliance

State Alloca?ons

State Water

Resource Plan

Commonwealth Accredita?on

Evalua?ng Success

Basin Plan

State and territory water

agencies

MDBA

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When it takes effect

proposed Basin Plan

Final Basin Plan

2010 2014 2020

How much addi?onal water does the

environment need?

Working out the Sustainable diversion limit

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What are the poten?al impacts on the community?

How to manage the transi?on?

What are the sustainable diversion

limit proposals?

2,442 key environmental assets

4 key ecosystem functions

41 41

Range of additional surface water for the

environment: 3,000 - 7,600 GL/y

106 hydrological indicator sites

18 KEAs 88 KEFs

30,000 wetlands

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30,000 wetlands

43

2,442 key environmental

assets 4 key ecosystem

functions

30,000 wetlands

44



functions 106 hydrological

indicator sites (18 key assets,

88 key functions)

30,000 wetlands

45



functions 106 hydrological

indicator sites (18 key assets,

88 key functions)

30,000 wetlands

3,000 to 7,600 GL additional surface water needed for the environment

Current diversion limits All types of take = total 13,700 GL/y •  For surface water :

– Watercourse diversions = 10,940 GL/y •  Diversions from streams •  Floodplain harves?ng

–  Intercep?on ac?vi?es = 2,740 GL/y •  Farm dams and forestry planta?ons

– SDL proposed reduc?on of 3000 to 4000 GL/y – Or about 1 third

46

47

Sustainable diversion limit proposals: surface water

Murray-‐Darling Basin CURRENT SDL PROPOSALS

13,700 9,700 – 10,700

Long term average

reduction (GL/y)

Water resource plan areas

3000-‐4000 gl/y or

22 – 29% reduc3on

Socio-‐economic impact assessment

48

Industry impacts

High Irrigated broadacre agriculture

Medium Cojon and dairy

Low High value perennial hor?culture (trade a major contribu?ng factor)

Regions most impacted (by $ value)

Southern Basin Murrumbidgee, Goulburn-‐Broken, NSW & Vic Murray, Loddon-‐Avoca

Northern Basin Gwydir, Condamine-‐Balonne, Namoi, Macquarie-‐Castlereagh

•  Cri?cal human water needs (s.86A) •  Environmental Watering Plan (item 9) •  Water Quality and Salinity Management Plan (item 10)

•  Trading rules (item 12) •  Water resource plan accredita?on requirements (item 11)

•  Monitoring and Evalua?on Plan (item 13) •  Compliance (item 8)

49

Basin plan content

plan for managing environmental water Environmental Watering Plan – Item 9

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Objec?ves, principles and methods to plan and priori?se

Framework for planning, coordina?ng and managing environmental water

•  Regional long term planning (Basin states)

•  Regional priori?sa?on (Basin states) •  Basin-‐scale priori?sa?on (MDBA)

•  Annual monitoring, evalua?on and repor?ng 51

Environmental Watering Plan

Water Quality & Salinity Management Plan -‐ Item 10

•  Water quality parameters: –  Salinity –  blue-‐green algae –  Temperature –  dissolved oxygen –  Turbidity –  Toxicants – Nutrients –  pH

•  Targets are non-‐mandatory •  State water resource plans must include a Water Quality Management Plan

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•  Commence when Plan adopted

For all water resources and holders of tradable water rights and aim to –  reduce barriers to trade – minimise transac?on costs

–  Provide consistent informa?on –  protect environmental requirements

•  State trading rules must comply with the Basin Plan 53

Water trading rules – Item 12

Challenges ahead - The approaching storm? climate chaos!!! And its impacts!!!

Climate Change Climate change is likely to be the greatest yet most uncertain threat to the shared water resources of the MDB

Up to 4400 GL/yr reduction in flows in 20 years

“Most of the effects of climate change operate

through water” Sir Nicholas Stern, 2007

Future Projec?ons

•  Global emissions tracking on the higher IPCC scenarios (such as A1F1)

•  Warmer drier condi?ons in the future under all global emission scenario’s

Projected changes in run-off at 2030 under scenario A1B, showing the number of climate models (out of 15) yielding an increase or decease in run-off; from F. Chiew.

Climate is hotter and drier

Global average temperature

Australian average temperature

Satellite estimate of soil moisture

lack of sustained intervening wet periods

combined with record high temperatures

→ a drought without historical precedent in Southeastern Australia

most notably in autumn

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2008

Climate change projections – CSIRO (Chew) •  Large uncertainties in global warming

projections – dependent on greenhouse gas emission and global climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gas concentrations.

•  As a result of global warming - extreme rainfall will be more intense - some regions will have more rainfall, other regions will have less rainfall.

•  Large uncertainties in GCM modelling of local rainfall response to global warming.

Key River Murray Catchment Area

What if this Drought is Different?

If the factors that make Australia’s climate variable are vulnerable to global warning?

New states or frequency?

Amplifica?on -‐ decreases in

runoff

• 

Rainfall & Streamflow (hypothe?cal catchment)

30 units streamflow

70 units evaporation, transpiration & soil moisture threshold

70 units evaporation, transpiration & soil moisture threshold

20 units streamflow

10% less rainfall

100

rain

fall

units

90 ra

infa

ll un

its

30% less streamflow

Lower rainfall = much lower Streamflow

CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007)

Water scarcity eg Murray mouth – no flows to sea for years – major ecological effects

CLIMATE uncertainty. Crude water balance

ET = 94% of P precipitation 6% = R (runoff, rivers, wetlands, 2% = end of system or total irrigation demand) (Roderick and Farquhar 2009)

What if ET goes up and P goes down ?

Rainfall decline is amplified 4 times in reduced runoff

With irrigation all R is converted to ET via infrastructure – therefore almost no flow to ocean (lower lakes)

Greater irrigation efficiency as surface water availability reduces?

Higher evaporation. More farm dams as surface water availability reduces?

Increased forest evapo-transpiration due to higher temps?

Higher frequency and intensity of bushfires due to higher temps and worse droughts?

Climate change Increased demand

for groundwater as surface water availability reduces?

Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Other Risks

?

? ?

?

?

Maximum reduction in yield:

Vic 2003 fires: Reductions of up to 1237 GL/y in 20 years

Groundwater Extraction can lead to loss of surface water.

Can be big lag times

Growth in Water Bodies Between 1994-‐2005 – near Alexandra

● Existing water bodies - 1994 ● New water bodies - 2005

Source: Geoscience Australia

The Big Challenges

The tough issues are all framed by and driven by •  Climate change, •  Economic change •  Water policy reform – including eflows •  Change in values and understanding

Major change is inevitable (happening), but what roles for government ?

Policies to support adaptations and transitions?

Maintain reform momentum

Govern resources in the public interest

More Challenges

Planning under deep uncertainty – stationarity is dead. Climate impact and risk management

Appropriate institutions and policies for adaptation;

Policy science integration? Need for robust analysis and auditing of performance Understanding and acting on thresholds of change – not crash testing

Conclusion 1: develop capacity for robust water policy under uncertainty

Use scenarios - plan for extremes - eg low water availability and deeper drought/climate change impacts

Plan for long term reductions in rainfall and runoff Accept a future of intense competition for water Recognise nature as a legitimate user

In face of uncertainty: •  Institutional and policy innovation required •  Build diverse, local adaptive capacity •  Adopt policies to support adjustment and adaptation eg

water market reforms supports risk management and local adaptation

Learn to live as Australia’s

Water is a limited resource! Bush burns! Floodplains flood! Droughts dry out the country – 70 out of 200 years

Conclusions 2: Water and drought

River basin management involves culture, prac3ce and governance.

We need innova3on system and governance systems that work.

New strategic R&D interven3ons – from problem solving to shared learning and system solu3ons

Conclusions 3: Pedagogy of complexity – Water is connected to everything -‐ Interrelated issues require mul?-‐disciplinary, integrated

and holis?c approaches

Campbell 2008

…“ideas are all Australia has … Not military might, or a large population, or unique resources. … Ideas are what must sustain our democracy, nurture our community and drive our economy into new areas (Paul Keating (2002)

Australia china acedp mdba breifing final

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