AUGMENTED REALITY - Jon Peddie Research€¦ · Augmented Reality has no relationship ... The...

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AUGMENTED REALITY

Trends and Opportunities

Jon

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Jon Peddie ResearchJPR Focuses on visualization, graphics, and forms of reality.

We provide consulting and market research, are advisors to industry leaders and investors.

We offer bi-weekly report, various digital technology market studies.

We also do product testing and benchmarking.

And conduct and participate at Conferences.

The Business of Multimedia and Visual Magic

Jon

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≠ does not equal ThisThisJust because something is stuck on your head

Augmented Realityhas no relationship to VR

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The Realities – Resist Marketing

AlternateAnotherArtificialAugmentedBlendedCognitiveDigitalDigitally mediatedDimensionalDiminishedExtendedExternalFalse

HybridImmersive (Tactical, Strategic, Narrative, and Spatial)InteractiveMagicMediatedMergedMirroredMixedModulatedPerceptiveProjectedPrevisualization

Spatial augmented reality (SAR)SecondSimulatedSpatial-augmentedSuper visionSyntheticTransVicariousVirtual augmented realityVirtual EnvironmentVisualwindow-on-the-world

Immersive reality is a multidiscipline multi-labeled and massively confusing collection of technologies, applications, and opportunities. It, or they, go by many labels.

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Deployment

What’s deployed today: what’s going to be deployed in

the next few years?

Art by Zenka

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Taxonomy of AR

Wearable devices

Helmets

Augmented Reality systems

Non-wearable devices

Mobile devices(Smartphone, tablet)

Head-updisplays

Headsets

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Factory installed

Retro-fit

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Indoors

outdoors

Add-on Integrated

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Indoors

outdoorsoutdoors

Stationary devices(Projectors,TV, PC, etc.)

Contacts

You can get it a lot of ways, and size does fit all

Deployment

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Suppliers by Segment

• Contact lens—7 suppliers or developers

• Helmet—7+ suppliers

• HUD—10+ suppliers

• Smart-glasses• Integrated

• Commercial—26 suppliers• Consumer—17 suppliers

• Add-on—14 suppliers

• Projectors (other than HUD) 3

• Specialized and other—6+ developers or suppliers

Does the word CRAZY come to mind?

Deployment

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ExamplesHelmet

Smart glasses – integrated-

Commercial/Industrial


Consummer

Smart glasses –

add-on HUD Projection Contact lens

Deployment

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AnnouncedHelmet




Consummer

Smart glasses –

add-on HUD Projection Contact lensBAE systems

Striker APX Labs

Microsoft

Hololens Brilliant Service

Beijing Palo Alto

Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL

BMW Atheer

Mirage

Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp

Ghent

University

Cinoptics

Brother

Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google

C-Thru Cannon

Osterhout Design

Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar

Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega

Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics

Intelligent

Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung

Eveno Eyes On

(Epson)

Shenzhen Topsky

Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony

Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq

Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay

IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam

Laster

Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright

Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1

NVIS QD Laser Telepathy

RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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ShippingHelmet




Consummer

Smart glasses –


Striker APX Labs

Microsoft


Beijing Palo Alto


BMW Atheer

Mirage


Ghent

University

Cinoptics

Brother


C-Thru Cannon

Osterhout Design




Intelligent


Eveno Eyes On

(Epson)

Shenzhen Topsky





Laster




RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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Shipping later this year . . .Helmet




Consummer

Smart glasses –


Striker APX Labs

Microsoft


Beijing Palo Alto


BMW Atheer

Mirage


Ghent

University

Cinoptics

Brother


C-Thru Cannon

Osterhout Design




Intelligent


Eveno Eyes On

(Epson)

Shenzhen Topsky





Laster




RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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Companies VC find interesting

Deployment

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What’s the size of the market today and in the next few years?

Market

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Market FantasiesFantasiesForecasts

Hardware M units 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HMD Units Sold (IHS) 0.05 0.13 0.30 2.30 6.60 0 0 0

HMD Unit Sold (Yano Research) 0.15 0.45 1.60 7.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0

Google Glass Units Sold (BI Insider) 0 0 0.83 2.47 3.74 10.62 21.15 0

Smart Glasses Sold (Berg Research) 0 0.10 0 0 7.68 0.00 0.00 0

AR Wearable Devices Sold (Markets & Markets) 0.92 12.20 16.10 21.20 27.90 36.80 48.50 0

HMD Units Sold (Gartner) 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.00 0

JPR (Grey Hair Perspective) 0.35 0.80 1.20 1.80 2.40 3.00 4.50 7.50

Pick the forecast you like best – alternative facts

Market

In 2019 ABI Research believes AR will grow to reach 53% of a $57 billion market

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Augmented Reality markets $90 billion in 2020

AR Hardware (tMkt)

aCommerce (tMkt)

AR Data

AR Voice

AR Film/TV (tMkt)

Enterprise AR

AR adspend

AR Consumer

AR Games (tMkt)AR Parks

Source: Digi-Capital, 2016

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Start 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Companies 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 12

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Companies

Project

Glass lanuched

Esquire Magazine

features augmented reality

Hololens

Pokemon Go

Too many suppliers chasing too few customers - no market can sustain this many companies

Market

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Consumers vs. Industrial/Military/Scientific

So far the AR market has no consumer wearable segment –first products in late 2017 – 2018.

HUDs are an exception and non-wearable.

For consumers to accept AR, it has to be inconspicuous, and non-geeky – nothing more than a pair of sun or prescription glasses. Helmets are the exception.

Market

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0

50

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Siz

e,

We

igh

t, C

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t, a

nd

Po

we

r

Augmented Reality Displays

Smart-glasses

Contact-lens

AR usage (M)

M users

Market

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Importance of vision to the success of AR

Vision

AR is much more complicated than VR because it merges the real world - Jon Peddie 2014

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Seeing ARVision

VideoCombiner

Computer generated image

Light-blocking display

CCamera

Real world view

Real world view

Optical see-through Video see-through

Computer generated image

Transparent optical combiner

CCamera

Positioning and Recording system

Cloud

Projector

This could be a smartphone

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Full Scale AR Requires Vision CaptureVision

Type/Feature Headphone Mic Display Camera

Audio Yes Maybe No No

Data Maybe Maybe Yes Maybe

Data & Location (& HUD) Yes Yes Yes Probably

Environmentally aware optical

see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes

Video see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes

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Camera Contributions to AR

Pose – where exactly is the camera looking

Capture – personal black box

Accurate registration of Pokemon, er, data to real world

Augmentation of rate of change and attitude data

SLAM needs lots of accurate markerless data points – from a camera (preferably three cameras)

Vision

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Cameras

Where to mount, and power all those AR cameras

• 3D sensing (structured light and/or TOF)

• IR

• Rear view

• Wide FOV if video see-through

And remember, one size does not fit all - AR is for everyone, and most are different

Vision

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Important challenges and trends that will play a major role in determining

the rate of growth of the market

Challenges

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Dangers of AR

• 60% think smartphones make them safer, and take more risks because they rely on their phone to keep them safe.

• Over 55% advanced internet users would like to use AR glasses to light up dark surroundings in order to highlight potentially dangerous objects, and/or people approaching.

• Change how the environment looks (no trash, graffiti, signs)

Challenges

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Seeing things that aren’t thereChallenges

Risk of information overload – learning how to mitigate

What the terminator saw What you might see

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Potential problems

• Biggest problem now involves coming up with designs that are not conspicuous (why Google Glass failed).• AR has a foundation in science, but not in commerce (but coming rapidly). Many

“experts” and reporters look at something from ODG or Atheer – and say, “look, consumer AR” – but nobody would wear something like that going to lunch with a friend.

• What are the biggest problems does AR solve? • Ignorance (when you can’t recall a name or fact without a computer)• Stupidity – I lost my way, where am I?• Personal “Black Box” – you could record every living moment of your life. Everything

you’re looking at – like being mugged, harassed by a cop, being hit by another car, etc. You become The “Fair Witness, described by Robert A. Heinlein, “In Stranger in a Strange Land.”

Challenges

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Additional information from

bone-connection audio

transducers

Forward facing tracking

and recording 4K

cameras

Eye-

tracking

camera

High-resolution

Transparent

displays

6DOF Position sensing, tracking, and

location sensors

Communications

Directional

microphones

Depth sensing

sensors

IR sensors

Ambient light sensors

Batteries

And They aren’t easy to make

And more . . .

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Benefits of AR

Instant expertise. Could we download whatever skills we wanted, needed?

Such capability, assuming one was willing to do the actual work, could eliminate the mismatch between demand for, and availability of, specialized skilled personal.

It could also eliminate the time to go to (or have come to you) needed help. A new expression of instant gratification.

Challenges

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The AR market is growing in industry and scientific, and will be huge in consumer

However, AR is very difficult technically, and challenging esthetically for the commercial market

Image sensors, ISPs, VPUs, are critical to the success of AR, have to be very high resolution, and very fast, and not expensive or use much power - no problem, right.

Two promo items (now’s the time to head to the rest room)

• Buy my book, Augmented Reality: Where We All Will Live (http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319545011)

• Buy our report: Visual Processing Unit Report

• Other resources: http://www.augmentedreality.org/ , http://www.arglassesguide.com/

Summary

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[email protected]

Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic

AUGMENTED REALITY - Jon Peddie Research€¦ · Augmented Reality has no relationship ... The...

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