Aug 2012 Econ Report

IISSII MMAACCRROOEECCOONNOOMMIICC RREEPPOORRTTSS

by Dr. Ahmet N. İMRE

August 2012

EECCOONNOOMMIICC OOUUTTLLOOOOKK,, PPRROOSSPPEECCTTSS AANNDD PPOOLLIICCYY:: Globally and in Turkey

The Global Economy: General Outlook and Near-Term Prospects

The ongoing deterioration in the economic outlook of particularly the Mediterranean flank of the

Eurozone continued to shape the global economic outlook in the second quarter of 2012 and there

have also been some significant country-specific events that affected global risk perceptions. In

particular, the results of the general elections in Greece in May reduced the probability of an exit from

the monetary union and led to a partial recovery in risk perceptions. Meanwhile, the recent deepening

of interdependent problems regarding sovereign debt and the banking sector in Spain has limited the

improvement in risk appetite. Although the measures adopted and the supportive announcements by

leading central banks have enabled some improvement in global risk perceptions since June, problems

regarding the Eurozone continue to feature as a major risk for the global economy in the medium and

long term ahead.

The lack of stability in the global economy, coupled with the ongoing imbalances, is creating some

adverse impact on the global economic outlook. In fact, economic activity has lost momentum in the

last quarter, both in the US and in China—two of the driving engines of the world economy.

Accordingly, growth forecasts for advanced and emerging countries have been modified downwards.

While inflationary risks have waned to a large extent, in line with the weak outlook for global

economic activity; concerns over growth and financial stability remain well-justified. Against this

background, central banks continue to implement expansionary monetary policies.

Chronic fragilities and imbalances regarding the global economy continue to keep investors' risk

appetite highly volatile. Four years after the outbreak of the global crisis, advanced economies are still

going through a deleveraging process. Acute economic problems in the Eurozone, uncertainties

regarding the US economy and China, as well as supply-side risks with regard to energy prices still

prevail. Together with the unusually low-cost liquidity facilities provided by central banks; these

uncertainties create substantial volatility in short-term capital flows destined to emerging economies.

Such an environment leads central banks of emerging economies to assign priority to measures aimed

at containing the adverse effects of excessive volatility in short-term capital flows.

All these factors highlight the importance of adopting a flexible monetary policy framework. Over the

past three months, the global recovery—which at any rate was not very strong to begin with—has

exhibited signs of weakening further, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update dated

July 16, 20121. Financial market and sovereign stress in the Eurozone periphery have been driven up,

close to end-2011 levels. Growth in a number of major emerging market economies has been lower

than forecast but these developments are expected to result in only a minor setback to the global

outlook, with global growth at 3.5 % in 2012 and 3.9 % in 2013, marginally lower than in the April

2012 edition of IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The latest World Economic Outlook dated July 16

points to the ongoing uncertainty in the global economy, originating particularly from further

turbulence in the Eurozone.

While the instability in global financial markets had become inclined to ease in the early months of

the year, market tensions and sovereign stress in the Eurozone have tended to intensify once again in

1 International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook - New Setbacks, Further Policy Action Needed

July 16, 2012 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/02/pdf/0712.pdf)

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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/02/pdf/0712.pdf

http://www.securities.com/

Dr. Ahmet N. IMRE 2 [email protected]

recent months; with deep-seated weaknesses in Europe continuing to pose significant risks to the

global recovery.

Downside risks to this weaker global outlook continue to remain substantial. The most immediate risk

is still that of insufficient or delayed policy action, which would give way to further intensification of

the Eurozone crisis. While substantial efforts are being demonstrated by the ECB and by EU leaders,

further steps are necessary, notwithstanding challenging implementation hurdles, as underscored by a

recent deterioration in sovereign debt markets.

The situation in the Eurozone crisis economies will likely remain precarious for some time; at least

until all policy actions that would be needed for a resolution of the crisis have been taken. Other

downside risks relate to fiscal policy in other advanced economies. Specifically, in the short term, the

possibility of excessive fiscal tightening in the United States constitutes a significant risk, particularly

in view of the recent political gridlock. It is estimated that should policymakers fail to reach

consensus on extending some temporary tax cuts and reversing deep automatic spending cuts, the U.S.

structural fiscal deficit could decline by more than 4 percentage points of GDP in 2013. U.S. growth

would then stall next year, with significant adverse spill-over effects to the rest of the world.

Moreover, delays in raising the federal debt ceiling could increase risks of financial market

disruptions in the period ahead and bring about a loss in consumer and business confidence.

Another risk arises from insufficient progress in developing credible plans for medium-term fiscal

consolidation in the United States and Japan, even if the flight to safety in global bond markets

currently mitigates this risk. In the absence of policy action, medium-term public debt ratios would

continue to move along unsustainable trajectories. As the global recovery advances, a lack of progress

could trigger sharply higher sovereign borrowing costs in the United States and Japan as well as

turbulence in the global bond and currency markets.

Risks to growth in emerging market and developing economies seem primarily related to external

factors in the near term. The slowdown in emerging market growth since mid-2011 has been partly

the result of policy tightening in response to signs of overheating. But policies have been eased since,

and this easing should gain traction in the second half of 2012. Still, concerns remain that potential

growth in emerging market economies might be lower than expected.

U.S. Economy: A Temperate Pace of Recovery

During the course of July, U.S. economic data remained consistent with a moderate pace of economic

growth in the near term. U.S. real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.5 % in the

second quarter of 2012, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the

"advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the first quarter, real GDP in the US increased 2.0 % primarily reflecting positive contributions

from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, non-residential fixed investment, private

inventory investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative

contribution from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the

calculation of GDP, increased. On the other hand, the deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter

primarily reflected an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in residential fixed investment and in

non-residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, a

smaller decrease in federal government spending, and an acceleration in exports.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 % in the second quarter, compared with an

increase of 2.4 % in the first. Output of durable goods decreased 1.0 %, in contrast to an increase of

11.5% in the first quarter. The production of non-durable goods increased 1.5 %, compared with an

increase of 1.6 % in the first three months of this year. Meanwhile the output of services grew 1.9

percent. Real non-residential fixed investment increased 5.3 % in the second quarter, compared with a

growth of 7.5 % in the first.

As regards the external sector of the economy, real exports of goods and services increased 5.3 % in

the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 % that was recorded in the first. Real imports of




goods and services increased 6.0 %, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent. Real federal

government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.4 % in the second quarter, in

contrast to a decrease of 4.2 % in the first. National defence spending decreased 0.4 %, compared

with a decrease of 7.1 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.32 percentage point to the second-quarter change in

real GDP after subtracting 0.39 percentage point from the first-quarter change.

Real GDP in the U.S. rose at a 1.9% annual rate, according to the third estimate for Q1'12. The second

quarter pace is expected to be lower than that, as the U.S. economy has not yet staged a noteworthy

recovery from the dip it experienced in 2010. Real personal spending accounts for about 70% of GDP

and figures for April and May suggested a 1.5% to 2.0% annual rate (compared to +2.5% in 1Q1’12).

Some of the slowdown reflects a pay off from a mild winter which boosted spending in 1Q1’12, while

some is likely the upshot of the earlier increase in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have fallen,

boosting consumer purchasing power in the near term. Average weekly earnings are now outpacing

inflation. Bank credit to consumers, while still relatively tight, is gradually improving. Motor vehicle

sales picked up in June after falling in May. Replacement needs should provide support to vehicle

sales over the next several quarters. Still, a large percentage of homeowners with mortgages remain

below the surface (being in debt by more than the home’s current market value), which will continue

to restrain spending to some extent.

Europe and the fiscal cliff remain the two key uncertainties and the major downside risks to the

growth outlook. Responding to these downside risks, the Federal Reserve extended the so-called

―Operation Twist‖ through the end of the year. Officials are poised to take further action and this may

make QE3 a close call for the Fed’s next policy meeting.

US Labour Market Beginning to Stabilize…

The US added a better-than-expected 163,000 jobs in July, according to official figures released on

August 3, by the US Department of Labor. This provides an indication that the recent slowdown in the

world’s largest economy may have entered a stabilization phase.

The rise in non-farm payrolls beat expectations of 100,000 new jobs and compares with a

downwardly revised figure of 64,000 in June. The unemployment rate rose from 8.2 to 8.3 per cent.

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.8 million) and the unemployment rate (8.3 %) staged

only marginal changes in July and thus far in 2012. While the stronger number assuages fears that the

US could spiral into a recession, it also points to a somewhat faltering economy that stops short of

creating an adequate number of jobs that would generate a meaningful drop in the unemployment rate.

The numbers are hope-inspiring, to the extent that they bring to mind the possibility that the second-




quarter slowdown in jobs growth may have been due to warm weather causing strong hiring in the

first quarter and is therefore of an only temporary nature and hence indicates that the U.S. economy is

growing fast enough to absorb the growth in population, but not fast enough to bring down the

unemployment rate. Monthly payrolls are the single most important indicator of the health of the U.S.

economy. If July’s improvement continues into August, it will complicate the US Fed’s decision on

whether to ease monetary policy further in the months ahead.

The rise in the unemployment rate reflects numbers from a more volatile survey of households –

which showed a fall in jobs and a slightly smaller decline in the labour force – whereas the payrolls

number comes from a survey of businesses.

There was another sign of feeble but continuing growth in the purchasing managers’ index for the

service sector, which rose from 52.1 to 52.6.

Overall jobs growth in the private sector totalled 172,000, offset by the loss of 9,000 jobs in the

government sector.

Jobs growth was spread broadly across industries, with 25,000 net new jobs in manufacturing, 49,000

in business services, 38,000 in education and healthcare and 27,000 in leisure and hospitality. The

main weak spots were finance and construction, with the building sector shedding another 1,000 jobs.

Such developments impacted favourably on consumer confidence which improved to 65.9 in July of

2012, from 62.7 a month earlier.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

…But Factory Activity Stagnates.

Activity in the US manufacturing sector remained relatively stagnant in July, amid a continuing global

slowdown, while the country’s private sector added fewer workers to the labour force than was the

case in the previous month. As a matter of fact, national factory activity scarcely rose in July, as a

slight increase in new orders was offset by a decline in employment which fell to a two-and-a-half

year trough. Overall, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index2 inched up to 49.8

from 49.7 in June, falling short of market expectations for a level of 50.2.

2 ISM - Institute of Supply Management: July 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Released on

August 1, 2012(http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Monthly change in private-sector employment in the United States from July 2011 to July 2012 (in 1,000)

Over the Month Change (in '000)



http://www.bls.gov/

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a19b0786-db85-11e1-a33a-00144feab49a.html#axzz22INoY5c0

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a19b0786-db85-11e1-a33a-00144feab49a.html#axzz22INoY5c0

http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm


Economists fear a slowdown in momentum over the medium term, given that the US manufacturing

sector had been regarded as the basis of a US economic recovery, having reversed decades of decline

and adding jobs since 2010.

The index of new orders rose to 48, up slightly from June’s 47.8 while ISM’s gauge of employment

slid to its lowest level since December 2009 at 52 from 56.6. Exports continued to tumble and were

down at 46.5 from 47.5.

Inventories are thinning, but only by a small amount, while delivery times are shortening. In another

reflection of weak demand input prices, are contracting, as evidenced by a 13-point loss in the index

since February.

July hiring was led by the service sector, with 148,000 new positions. Goods-producing companies

added 15,000 jobs, of which 6,000 were in manufacturing.

Economists expect the non-farm payrolls survey, which includes government hiring and layoffs, to

show that the economy added a net 100,000 jobs in July, compared with 80,000 in June. It is expected

that the private sector will have contributed 210,000 positions, offset by public sector job cuts. The

unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 8.2 per cent.

Construction spending rose modestly in June as investment in new homes and in home improvement

offset losses from a dip in spending in public works projects by the federal government.

The US Commerce Department data showed that total construction spending increased 0.4 % during

the month, to an annual rate of US$842 billion, roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. This

followed a 1.6 % leap in May.

On a year-over-year basis, construction spending was 7 % higher, compared with 8.1 % the month

before.

A tentative recovery in the US housing market has boosted residential construction spending which

was up 1.3 % in June, after a 3.1 % boost in May.

The multifamily subcomponent jumped 3.4 %, following a 6.9 % increase the month prior, as more

people choose not to purchase big-ticket items and are opting to rent, against the backdrop of an

uncertain macroeconomic environment.

The single family component too increased 3 % in June, following a 2.2 % gain the previous month.

Government construction spending held steady, with public works projects down 1.6 per cent.

EUROZONE: Edging Towards Recession

The Eurozone economy avoided a technical

recession–two consecutive quarters of

contraction. EuroStat data out on August 143

confirmed initial estimates that GDP remained

unchanged in the opening quarter of 2012 from

the previous stanza, when it contracted by 0.3%.

Underlying weakness in the recovery from the

2008-2009 recession was also confirmed with

output falling 0.1% from the opening months of

2011. Euro zone PMI’s for manufacturing and

services suggest GDP will fall in the current

quarter. We expect the economy will shrink by

around 0.5% in 2012 based on the assumption

3 EuroStat News Release #118/2012 dated 14 August 2012: June 2012 compared with May 2012

Industrial production down by 0.6% in Euro area (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-14082012-AP/EN/4-14082012-AP-EN.PDF)



http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-14082012-AP/EN/4-14082012-AP-EN.PDF

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/4-14082012-AP/EN/4-14082012-AP-EN.PDF


that Greece remains in the single-currency area. However, the uncertainty over the outlook has

increased significantly over recent months. Over June and July, the Eurozone edged closer to

recession after a hard-wearing economic performance from Germany and France failed to stop the

single currency bloc from contracting in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product in the Eurozone contracted 0.2 % in the three months to June, compared with

the previous three months when there was no growth. This development reflected sharp retrenchments

in economic activity in Greece, Italy, Spain and Finland.

Nonetheless, robust investment and domestic consumption helped the German economy expand 0.3 %

in the second quarter; exceeding expectations of just 0.1 % growth, while France’s GDP remained

unchanged thereby avoiding a highly anticipated contraction. The Netherlands also outperformed

forecasts, growing 0.2 per cent.

EuroStat data released on August 14 confirmed initial estimates that GDP remained unchanged in the

opening quarter of 2012 from the previous position, when it contracted by 0.3 per cent. Underlying

weakness in the recovery from the 2008-2009 recession was also confirmed with output falling 0.1%

from the opening months of 2011. Eurozone PMI’s for manufacturing and services suggest GDP will

decrease in the current quarter. Hence, the economy will probably contract by around 0.5% in 2012

based on the assumption that Greece remains in the single-currency area. This said, the uncertainty

over the outlook has increased significantly over recent months.

Despite the evident

favourable economic

performance in France,

Germany and the

Netherlands, the

sovereign debt crisis

continues to trouble

southern Europe, as it

is spreading to the

bloc’s economically

stronger core northern

states. This is

particularly evident in

Finland, a close

collaborator of

Germany in the struggle for greater austerity in the Eurozone, where the economy shrank 1 % in the

second quarter.

Of the more 'problematic' amongst the Eurozone economies; Greece’s economy shrank at an

annualised pace of 6.2 % in the second quarter, as the country’s economic administration is spending

efforts to reignite investment and consumption which have remains subdued essentially because of

the strict austerity measures imposed by the EU in exchange for further bailouts. Meanwhile, Italy’s

economy contracted at an annualised rate of 0.7 % quarter-on-quarter, extending the country’s year-

old double-dip recession.

Eurozone GDP fell by 0.2% in the Eurozone during the second quarter of 2012, compared with the

previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by EuroStat, the statistical office of the

European Union. In the first quarter of 2012, growth rates were 0.0% in both zones. Compared with

the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.4% in the Eurozone in the

second quarter of 2012, after 0.0% in the previous quarter. For the sake of comparison, during the

second quarter of 2012, GDP increased by 0.4% in the United States relative to the previous quarter

(after +0.5% in the first quarter of 2012) and by 0.3% in Japan (after +1.3% in the first quarter of

2012).




Eurozone Unemployment Escalates to a Record High of 11.2% in June.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone unemployment rate was last reported at 11.2 % in June of 2012. It may be

recalled that historically, from 1995 until 2012, the Eurozone unemployment rate averaged 9.2 %

reaching an all time high of 11.1 % in May of 2012 and a record low of 7.2 %in February of 2008.

Based mainly on the worsening unemployment outlook, Eurozone consumers continued to maintain a

pessimistic attitude as regards the Region’s economic prospects in the period ahead and consumer

confidence progressed along a downward path, declining to -21.5 in July of 2012 from -19.8 in June

of 2012. On the other hand, business confidence declined to a lesser extent, to -1.27 in July of 2012,

from -0.95 in June of 2012.

The most significant short-term risk facing the global economy continues to be Europe's debt crisis.

The progress of the Eurozone crisis in the period ahead will depend on the length and depth of the

Eurozone recession. If output continues to shrivel at the same time as unemployment keeps rising,

then austerity measures are likely to make economic conditions worse while generating very little new

revenue. Consequently, the Eurozone may fall into an even deeper abyss.

JAPAN: Public Investment Drove Growth in Q2'12.

Second-quarter gross domestic product data, released on August 13 by Japan’s Cabinet Office,

showed that public investment, up 1.7 % from the first quarter, was a primary driver of the nation’s

growth between April and June. Other segments of the world’s third-largest economy have fared less

well, however. GDP figures showed that Japan’s economy grew by a less-than- expected, in the

second quarter; that is, by an annualized 1.4 %, as weak exports and softer consumer spending offset

strong public investment in tsunami-stricken Tohoku. The data represented a significant fall relative

to the revised annualized 5.5 % expansion between January and March.

While heavy spending on rebuilding following the Tohoku tsunami is necessary, it suggests that

growth may taper further in the second half of this year, as less cash is disbursed to the region from

central government. Meanwhile, private consumption, the engine of the economy, grew a mere 0.1 %,

the weakest in five quarters, as spending on services and non-durables fell.




Net exports, meanwhile, trimmed 0.1 percentage points from GDP – the sixth quarterly subtraction in

a row – amid sluggish shipments from manufacturers and high imports of fuel to replace lost nuclear

capacity.

Perhaps most disquieting was a 0.5 % year-on-year fall, in the nominal remuneration of employees,

suggesting that even though economic activities have risen somewhat, incomes are not keeping up and

companies have begun to squeeze payrolls to offset weaker sales, or to counter the impact of the

stubbornly strong yen which undermines the future outlook for consumption.

TURKEY: Consumer Confidence Improved in July.

Despite the increasingly uncertain outlook of the global economy and a moderate uptrend in inflation,

monthly changes in consumer confidence remained in positive territory. The Consumer Confidence

Index, which was 91.8 in June 2012 increased by 1.1% compared to previous month and became 92.8

in July 2012.

Source: TurkStat Turkish Statistical Institute Press Release # 10886 dated August 16, 2012

(http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=10886)



http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=10886


The increase in the index stemmed essentially from an improvement in consumers' purchasing power

in the current period, as well as their relatively more favourable expectations regarding their

employment prospects, purchasing power and the general economic outlook in the period ahead.

Recent data suggest that final domestic demand is growing at a moderate rate. Exports continue to

develop along an uptrend and the balancing of the demand composition continues in the second

quarter. Economic activity is expected to post a relatively higher increase on a quarterly basis in the

second quarter. This said, one ought to bear in mind that this expected surge in activity can be

attributed largely to the low base at the beginning of the year. Accordingly, the recovery in economic

activity is considered to be only mild in this period.

Current Account Deficit Narrowed in the First Half of 2012, While Non-

Residents' Investments in Turkey Increased Considerably.

Turkey’s current account deficit amounted to US$ 31,083 million in the first half of the current year,

implying a narrowing of US$ 13,685 million over the same period of the previous year. This

development is essentially attributable to a US$ 12,041 million decrease in the foreign trade deficit

which amounted to US$ 34,420 million and to a US$ 835 million increase in net services income

reaching to US$ 6,283 million, in addition to a US$ 873 million decrease in net income outflows

amounting to US$ 3,589 million.

Under the services account, the travel revenues and expenditures decreased by US$ 95 million and

US$ 635 million respectively, compared to the same period of the previous year, recording US$ 8,377

million and US$ 1,887 million respectively.

The main sub-items under ―investment income‖, namely direct investment, portfolio investments and

other investment consisting of the interest income and expenditures; recorded a net outflow of US$

3,487 million in January-June, decreasing by US$ 902 million observed during the same period of the

previous year.

Non-residents’ net direct investment in Turkey reached US$ 8,206 million increasing by US$ 1,418

million, while residents’ net direct investment abroad recorded US$ 2,503 million increasing by US$

1,174 million over the first half of 2011. Non-residents’ equity security transactions recorded net

purchases of US$ 1,238 million in the first half of 2012, including the net purchases of US$ 898

million in June. Non-residents realized net purchases of US$ 3,891 million of government domestic

debt securities in the first half, including the net purchases of US$ 2,237 million observed in June, and

net purchases of US$ 227 million regarding the domestic securities issued by resident banks in the

first half.




Consumer inflation rate in Turkey materialized at 9.1 % in July 2012.The IMF has forecast Turkey’s

year-end 2012 growth at 2.3 % and increased its 2012 inflation expectation to 10.6 % from 6.5 %,

according to the IMF’s world economic outlook report.4 According to the report, Turkey’s gross

domestic product (GDP) growth will be 2.3 % at the end of 2012. Turkey is forecast to grow 3.2 % in

2013 and annual consumer prices are expected to materialize in the vicinity of 10.6 % in 2012 and

around 7.1 % in 2013.

The IMF report also predicts that Turkey’s current account balance ratio to GDP will be around -8.8

% in 2012 and -8.2 % in 2013. It further forecasts the unemployment rate to be around 10.3 % in 2012

and 10.5 % in 2013.

All in all, Turkey’s economy still remains resilient to heightened stress in the Eurozone and to a weak

recovery in most advanced economies. Although reduced, vulnerabilities in Turkey’s major trading

partners remain and they continue to pose risks to the sustainability of country’s long-term growth.

Accordingly, the tightening of macroeconomic policies since the second half of 2011 was appropriate

and has contributed to slowing domestic demand and to keeping inflationary pressures tightly

controlled. As an encouraging result, the economy is decelerating toward a 'soft landing', thus helping

redress the imbalances built over the last two years. It will be important to maintain current budget

targets for 2012 and tight monetary policy to guard against external shocks and to strengthen existing

policy buffers. Still, global economic developments pose downside risks. In the event of these risks

materializing, the public sector's strong balance sheet provides Turkey’s economic policymakers with

adequate room for implementing effective counter-cyclical policies.

25 August 2012

Dr. Ahmet N. İMRE

4 Turkey's Economy: Reforms to Strengthen Economic Stability Will Help Turkey's Growth and Jobs

IMF Survey Online, May 11, 2012 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/NEW051112A.htm



http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/NEW051112A.htm

Aug 2012 Econ Report

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