Day 6Journey by a

motorcycle

Delaying time (minutes) Speed (km/h) time (minutes)

-30 20 90

-20 22.5 80

-10 25.71428571 70

0 30 60

10 36 50

20 45 40

30 60 30

Graph

20

30

40

50

60

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Spe

ed

(km

/h)

Delaying time (minutes)

Journey by a motorcycle

time (minutes)

Results: The graph shows us the relationship between speed and delaying time. The result is that the higher delaying time requires the higher speed. Observations: For safety, the rider should control the speed below 40 km/h, so that he/she needs to limit the delaying time less than about 20 miutes.

Day 7(1) The relation between dwell time at ports and cruising speed

P (days) v (knots)

2 15

4 17

6 19

8 22

10 26

Graph

(2) Effects of cruising speed to fuel costs

v (knots) x1 x2 x3

15 136,489 272,977 409,466

- 7 14 21

14.9

16.7

18.9

21.8

25.8

S

p

TP : 21 (days) : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days) : 6,800 (nautical miles) : ? (knots) vD

17 170,613 341,226 511,840

19 219,081 438,163 657,244

22 291,512 583,023 874,535

26 407,411 814,823 1,222,234

Graph

A

DvDSRCRCC

LubLubFuelFuelF

23

2

130,000

180,000

230,000

280,000

330,000

380,000

430,000

14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Fue

l co

st (

US$

)

v (knots)

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Fue

l co

st (

US$

)

fix P= 6

(3) Effects of cruising speed to overall related ship cost

v (knots) T*CCD (US$) CF (US$) CS (US$)

5 498,984.6 15,349 514,333.6

7 370,067.6 30,084 400,151.7

9 298,447.0 49,731 348,178.0

11 252,870.3 74,289 327,159.7

13 221,317.2 103,760 325,076.8

15 198,178.3 138,141 336,319.7

17 180,483.8 177,435 357,918.8

19 166,514.5 221,640 388,154.7

21 155,205.9 270,757 425,963.2

Graph

A

DvDSRCRCP

v

DCCS

LubLubFuelFuelCD

23

2

*24

200,000.0

300,000.0

400,000.0

500,000.0

600,000.0

Co

st (

US$

)

(4) Effects of dwell time at ports to overall ship related cost

P CS (US$)

2

4

6

8

10

Graph

-

100,000.0

5 7 9 11 13 15 17

Cruising Speed

(5) Effects of fuel and lubricant oil prices to overall ship related cost

v (knots) x1 x2 x3

5 514,333.6 529,682.7 545,032

7 400,152 430,236 460,320

9 348,178 397,909 447,640

11 327,160 401,449 475,739

13 325,077 428,836 532,596

15 336,320 474,461 612,603

17 357,919 535,354 712,789

19 388,155 609,795 831,435

21 425,963 696,720 967,478

Graph

CS (US$)

-

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

CS

((U

S$)

Chart Title

-

5 7 9 11 13 15

Cruising speed (knots)

(1) The relation between dwell time at ports and cruising speed v S p

14.9 19 2

16.7 17 4

18.9 15 6

` 21.8 13 8

25.8 11 10

x4

545,955

ResultsThe graphsbetween dwell time at ports and cruising speed. The result is that tdwell time it takes at ports, the higher crusing speed it requires. ObservationsFor safety, to control cruising speed of ship at reasonable levelcompanies need to limit the dwell time at ports.

: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days) : 6,800 (nautical

: 170 (US$/metric ton) : 0.00014 (metric ton/hp/h) : 1,000 (US$/metric ton)

FuelCFuelRLubC

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

2 4 6 8 10

v (k

no

ts)

P (days)

682,453

876,325

1,166,047

1,629,646

Results 1. The graphs show the effect ofspeed to fuel costs. The result is thathigher speed costs the higher volume of cost, so it leads to the higher fuel cost. Moreover, although the change in speed is quite small but the change in fuel pricechanges is extremely huge.2. Because the fluctuation of currency affects the fuel price , the cost is also fluctuated. The higher the inflation is, the higher cost will be.Observations 1. For economically, liner shipping companies should control the cruising speed at reasonable level to limit the fuel costs.2. Shipping lines companies should pay attention to the fluctuation of price.

: 0.00014 (metric ton/hp/h) : 1,000 (US$/metric ton) : 0.000004 (metric ton/hp/h) : : 300 : 1,000 (TEUs) : 6,800 (nautical miles) : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days)

LubCLubR

DSACAP

3.3453*96.26 CAP

DP

A

DvDSRCRCC

LubLubFuelFuelF

23

2

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Fue

l co

st (

US$

)

v(knots)

x1

x2

x3

x4

9 2

(3) Effects of cruising speed to overall related ship cost

T

62.7

46.5

37.5

31.8

27.8

24.9

22.7

20.9

19.5

: 170 (US$/metric ton) : 0.00014 (metric : 1,000 (US$/metric ton) : 0.000004 (metric ton/hp/h) : : 300 : 1,000 (TEUs) : (US$/day) : 6,800 (nautical miles) : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days)

FuelCFuelRLubCLubR

DS

ACAP

3.3453*96.26 CAP

52.1422*54.6 CAPCDCDP

Results The graph shows the effects of cruising speed to overall related ship cost. The result is that the higher cruising speed is, the higher fuel cost and the lower ship related cost will be. It is typical trade off situation. Observations Liner shipping companies should control the ship at the speed of 13

A

DvDSRCRCP

v

DCCS

LubLubFuelFuelCD

23

2

*24

T*CCD (US$)

CF (US$)

CS (US$)

(4) Effects of dwell time at ports to overall ship related cost

Liner shipping companies should control the ship at the speed of 13 knots and we need 4 ships to operate weekly service. Optimal cruising speed is 13 knots

Results Observations

17 19 21

(5) Effects of fuel and lubricant oil prices to overall ship related cost

P= 6

x4 <-- Fuel & lub oil prices

560,380.8

490,404.1

497,370.7

550,027.9

636,355.5

750,744.1

890,223.8

1,053,075.6

1,238,234.9

CS (US$)

Results The graph shows the effects of fuel and lubricant oil prices to overall ship related cost. The result is that the higher oil fuel price increases, the cruising speed will decrease. Observations c

x1

x2

x3

x4

17 19 21

Results The graphs show the relationship between dwell time at ports and cruising speed. The result is that the longer dwell time it takes at ports, the higher crusing speed it requires. Observations For safety, to control cruising speed of ship at reasonable level liner shipping companies need to limit the dwell time at ports.

: 0.00014 (metric ton/hp/h)

1. The graphs show the effect of cruising speed to fuel costs. The result is that the

speed costs the higher volume of cost, so it leads to the higher fuel cost. Moreover, lthough the change in speed is quite small

but the change in fuel price due to speed changes is extremely huge.

the fluctuation of currency affects the fuel price , the cost is also fluctuated. The higher the inflation is, the higher cost will be. Observations

economically, liner shipping companies should control the cruising speed at reasonable level to limit the fuel costs. 2. Shipping lines companies should pay attention to the fluctuation of price.

: 0.00014 (metric ton/hp/h)

: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days)

: 170 (US$/metric ton) : 0.00014 (metric ton/hp/h) : 1,000 (US$/metric ton) : 0.000004 (metric ton/hp/h)

: 1,000 (TEUs) : (US$/day) : 6,800 (nautical miles) : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 (days)

3.3453*96.26 CAP

52.1422*54.6 CAP

shows the effects of cruising speed to overall related ship cost. The

higher cruising speed is, the higher fuel cost and the lower ship related cost will be. It is typical

Liner shipping companies should control the ship at the speed of 13

Liner shipping companies should control the ship at the speed of 13 knots and we need 4 ships to operate

Optimal cruising speed is 13 knots

The graph shows the effects of fuel and lubricant oil prices to overall ship

he higher oil fuel price increases, the

Day 8

Cluster analysis Asia-Europe Asia-North America

Major trade lanes (1999-2011): europe.xlsx north_america.xlsx

(1) Asia-Europe 1999 1999

(2) Asia-North America 2003 2003

- Operator 2007 2007

- Building year 2011 2011

- Cruising speed

- Ship capacity

- Fleet size

- Transit time

Asia-North America

north_america.xlsx

Day 9

(1) Prisoner’s Dilemma Where is the Nash Equilibrium Point?

Stay quiet Accuse partner

Sta

y q

uie

t

2 / 2 10 / 0.5

Accuse p

art

ner

0.5 / 10 5 / 5 <== Nash Equiblirium point

(2) The tragedy of the commons

Profit matrix number of the others' cows

number of farmer i's cows 0

1 13

2 24

3 33

The best solution is ( 1,2,2,2 )

The total profit is 49 How should farmers do to maximize their profits? Cooperate

A / B

Prison A

Prison B

4 ,3 ,2 ,1farmer 3 ,2 ,1 ,0 cows of #

216functionPofit 4

1

iq

qqqx

i

ii

iii

(3) Hub-and-spoke vs Multi-port-calling 2-players, non-cooperative game

Cruising time (days)

H&S

1

1 -

2 10

3 -

4 -

5 -

6 -

MPC

1

1 -

2 -

3 -

4 -

5 43

6 -

Comparison transit times (days) of H&S and MPC

H&S

1

1 0

2 10

3 23

4 42

5 51

6 57

Multi-port-calling

Hub-and-spoke

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

counterclockwise

Transit time ratios of H&S and MPC

H&S

1

1 0.0

2 0.9

3 0.8

4 0.6

5 0.5

6 0.5

Cargo demand (TEUs) between ports

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 250

5 280

6 200

Cargo demand (TEUs) assiment between ports

H&S

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 138

5 128

6 108

Tariff (US$)

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 1,100

5 1,100

6 1,100

Revenue (million US$)

H&S

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 152,128

5 140,894

6 118,871

Cost (Asian company)

H&S (18*transit time+250)*cargo demand

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 139,128

5 149,603

6 137,890

Cost (European company)

H&S (18*transit time+300)*cargo demand

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 146,043

5 156,008

6 143,294

Profit (Asian company)

H&S

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 13,000

5 (8,710)

6 (19,019)

Profit (European company)

H&S

1

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 6,085

5 (15,114)

6 (24,423)

Payoff matrix Where is the Nash Equilibrium Point?

(million US$)

H&S MPCH

&S 2,355,043 /

2,560,653

2,355,043 /

2,649,181 <== Nash Equilibrium Point

MP

C 2,178,907 /

2,560,653

2,178,907 /

2,649,181

Euro

pean c

om

pany (

E)

E / A

Asian company (A)

Where is the Nash Equilibrium Point?

<== Nash Equiblirium point

number of the others' cows

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8

30 27 24 21 18 15 12 9

The best solution is ( 1,2,2,2 )

The total profit is 49 How should farmers do to maximize their profits? Cooperate

4 ,3 ,2 ,1farmer 3 ,2 ,1 ,0 cows of #

216functionPofit 4

1

iq

qqqx

i

ii

iii

2-players, non-cooperative game

Cruising time (days) Transit time

H&S

2 3 4 5 6 1

10 - - - - 1 -

- 13 32 - - 2 10

13 - - - - 3 23

32 - - 9 15 4 42

- - 9 - - 5 51

- - 15 - - 6 57

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 1

10 - - - - 1 -

- 13 - - - 2 127

- - - - 47 3 114

- - - 9 - 4 52

- - - - - 5 43

- - 15 - - 6 67

Comparison transit times (days) of H&S and MPC

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 1

10 23 42 51 57 1 0

0 13 32 41 47 2 127

13 0 45 54 60 3 114

32 45 0 9 15 4 52

41 54 9 0 24 5 43

47 60 15 24 0 6 67

Transit time ratios of H&S and MPC

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 1

0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 1 0.0

0.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 2 0.1

0.9 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 3 0.2

0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 4 0.4

0.6 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.8 5 0.5

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 6 0.5

Cargo demand (TEUs) between ports

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 500 550 450

0 0 600 300 500

0 0 700 600 500

300 300 0 0 0

190 350 0 0 0

200 220 0 0 0

Cargo demand (TEUs) assiment between ports

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 1

0 0 335 357 248 1 0

0 0 421 202 280 2 0

0 0 406 341 220 3 0

198 188 0 0 0 4 112

107 181 0 0 0 5 152

124 132 0 0 0 6 92

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000

0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000

0 0 2,000 2,000 2,000

1,100 1,100 0 0 0

1,100 1,100 0 0 0

1,100 1,100 0 0 0

Revenue (million US$)

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 1

0 0 669,291 713,103 496,063 1 0

0 0 841,121 403,200 560,748 2 0

0 0 811,215 681,600 439,252 3 0

217,660 206,250 0 0 0 4 122,872

117,840 199,375 0 0 0 5 167,106

136,613 145,200 0 0 0 6 101,129

Cost (Asian company)(million US$)

(18*transit time+250)*cargo demand MPC (7.5*transit time+270)*cargo demand

2 3 4 5 6 1

0 0 336,654 416,452 316,488 1 0

0 0 347,383 199,181 307,290 2 0

0 0 429,944 416,458 292,103 3 0

163,443 198,750 0 0 0 4 73,723

105,842 221,488 0 0 0 5 90,010

136,116 175,560 0 0 0 6 71,020

Cost (European company) (million US$)

(18*transit time+300)*cargo demand MPC (8*transit time+400)*cargo demand

2 3 4 5 6 1

0 0 353,386 434,280 328,890 1 0

0 0 368,411 209,261 321,308 2 0

0 0 450,224 433,498 303,084 3 0

173,336 208,125 0 0 0 4 91,149

111,199 230,550 0 0 0 5 113,025

142,326 182,160 0 0 0 6 86,052

Profit (Asian company) (million US$)

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 Total Profit 1

0 0 332,638 296,651 179,575 2,560,653 1 0

0 0 493,738 204,019 253,458 2 0

0 0 381,271 265,142 147,150 3 0

54,217 7,500 0 0 0 4 49,149

11,998 (22,113) 0 0 0 5 77,097

497 (30,360) 0 0 0 6 30,109

Profit (European company) (million US$)

MPC

2 3 4 5 6 Total Profit 1

0 0 315,906 278,823 167,173 2,355,043 1 0

0 0 472,710 193,939 239,439 2 0

0 0 360,991 248,102 136,168 3 0

44,323 (1,875) 0 0 0 4 31,723

6,642 (31,175) 0 0 0 5 54,082

(5,713) (36,960) 0 0 0 6 15,077

Where is the Nash Equilibrium Point?

(million US$)

<== Nash Equilibrium Point

==> Simplify!

9

4

6

6

The total profit is 49 How should farmers do to maximize their profits? Cooperate

4 ,3 ,2 ,1farmer 3 ,2 ,1 ,0 cows of #

216functionPofit 4

1

iq

qqqx

i

ii

iii

2 3 4 5 6

10 23 42 51 57

- 13 32 41 47

13 - 45 54 60

32 45 - 9 15

41 54 9 - 24

47 60 15 24 -

2 3 4 5 6

10 23 85 94 70

- 13 75 84 60

124 - 62 71 47

62 75 - 9 122

53 58 128 - 113

77 90 15 24 -

2 3 4 5 6

10 23 85 94 70

0 13 75 84 60

124 0 62 71 47

62 75 0 9 122

53 58 128 0 113

77 90 15 24 0

2 3 4 5 6

0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4

0.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4

0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6

0.3 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.1

0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2

0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 165 193 202

0 0 179 98 220

0 0 294 259 280

102 113 0 0 0

83 169 0 0 0

76 88 0 0 0

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 330,709 386,897 403,937

0 0 358,879 196,800 439,252

0 0 588,785 518,400 560,748

112,340 123,750 0 0 091,160 185,625 0 0 083,387 96,800 0 0 0

(7.5*transit time+270)*cargo demand

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 150,059 188,612 160,565

0 0 149,383 88,560 158,131

0 0 216,379 208,008 174,533

75,064 93,656 0 0 055,317 118,969 0 0 064,246 83,160 0 0 0

(8*transit time+400)*cargo demand

2 3 4 5 6

0 0 178,583 222,852 193,890

0 0 179,439 105,485 193,271

0 0 263,776 250,906 217,570

91,506 112,500 0 0 068,287 145,800 0 0 077,019 98,560 0 0 0

2 3 4 5 6 Total Profit

0 0 180,650 198,284 243,372 2,649,181

0 0 209,495 108,240 281,121

0 0 372,407 310,392 386,215

37,277 30,094 0 0 035,842 66,656 0 0 019,141 13,640 0 0 0

2 3 4 5 6 Total Profit

0 0 152,126 164,044 210,047 2,178,907

0 0 179,439 91,315 245,981

0 0 325,009 267,494 343,178

20,834 11,250 0 0 022,873 39,825 0 0 0

6,368 (1,760) 0 0 0