ATLSSSpatially Explicit Species Index

(SESI)Models

E. Jane Comiskey, Mark R. PalmerDonald L. DeAngelis, Louis J. Gross

ATLSS SESI Models

What is a SESI model?

Spatially Explicit – Each uses a GIS representationof the Greater Everglades region.

Species Index – Each indicates the dynamic effect ofhydrological conditions upon biota as representedby a 0.0 – 1.0 index.

Models – Are developed and used within a modularframework. All models share the samesoftware, input and output foundation.

ATLSS SESI Models

What are they used for?

Provide a simple means of estimating the relativeimpact of hydrological conditions upon biota.

To encode the knowledge of field biologists.

As a “stepping stone” to developing more complex demographic and individual-based models.

To provide input into other models.

ATLSS SESI ModelsHow are they built?

Field observation

s

Historicaldata and

observations

Field ecologist,ATLSS modelers

Habitat/Modelrules

ATLSS SESI Models

Sparrows prefer dry marl dominated by Muhlenbergia or

similar grass

Exclude cells < 15%suitable habitat

Successful nestingcycle requires 45

days of dry conditions

Abort nestingcycle if surfacewater depth >15 centimeters

Observationsand historical data

Habitat/Modelrules

: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow

ATLSS SESI ModelsWading bird habitat/model rules

as software design

Availablefor all SESI

Models

Can be usedto reproducethe software

ATLSS SESI ModelsInsert model design into ATLSS SESI framework

Provides auniform

foundation

Saves timeand money

ATLSS SESI ModelsOutput of American alligator model

ATLSS SESI ModelsOutput of Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow model

ATLSS SESI ModelsOutput of long legged wading bird model

ATLSS SESI ModelsOutput of short legged wading bird model

ATLSS SESI ModelsOutput of white-tailed deer model

ATLSS SESI ModelsHow are the models evaluated?

Fieldecologist or

modeler:evaluateoutput

ATLSSmodelers:

modify andrerun

Experience Experience

HistoricalData

Comments

Comparison maps

Calibration data 1979 to 1995

ATLSS SESI ModelsWhat models have been built?

American alligator

Cape Sable Seaside SparrowLong-legged and short-legged wading birds

Snail kite

White-tailed deer

Everglades and slough crayfish

Apple snail

ATLSS SESI ModelsHow have the models been used?

South FloridaWater Mgmt.

District

ATLSSstaff

Hydrology scenario

Scientists

Managers

Stakeholders

Internet

Public

This process wasrepeated for each

scenario evaluation.

Comparisonmaps andwrite-ups

Comparison mapsand write-ups

Internet

ATLSS SESI ModelsAdditional current applications

Models, especially the wading bird models,are being used to analyze climate changescenarios.

Output from the American alligator model is being used as input to the Americanalligator spatially explicit stage-structuredmodel.

ATLSS SESI Models

Current and future directions

High accuracy elevation data (HAED) willenhance the current High Resolution Topography model.

Upgrade models to use the most recentFlorida FGAP vegetation data.

Create a production run framework thatallows users to run the models from theirPC using a World Wide Web interface.

ATLSS SESI ModelsWhat next?

Expand current evaluation activitiesto include new data sets of species fieldinformation and calibration water yearsof 1965 through 2000 . Data sets includenesting success for sparrows, alligators,and snail kites, as well as apple snail andcrayfish densities.

Incorporate new models, e.g. empiricalfish model (Trexler).

ATLSS SESI ModelsOngoing model evaluation procedure

Ecologists

ATLSSmodelers

Comments

Raw data

New datasets, recent

observations

PC-basedevaluation

tool

ATLSS evaluationinterface

Parametersettings

Modelupdates

ATLSS SESI ModelsATLSS evaluation interface

Uses expanded calibration hydrology data set.

Only authorized users will have access.

Must track the parameter settings for eachrun.

Requires close collaboration betweenmodel developers and those validatingthe models.

Web-based interface.

ATLSS SESI ModelsFramework for model use

SFWMD

ATLSSproductioninterface

Hydrology scenario,

Users

description, identifier

Comparison maps,movies, raw data

Scenario ID,model name

ATLSSdata

viewer

ATLSS SESI ModelsATLSS production interface

Only authorized users may run the models.

General users may view/download thedata.

Web-based interface

Uses the ATLSS data viewer to analyzethe model results in detail.

Provide an online forum for scenarioevaluations.