ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)
description
Transcript of ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)
![Page 1: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus
Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts
(Progress Report)
Presenter
Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey)
Investigators
Ann Schrader (SAIC, Monterey)
Paul Wittmann (FNMOC)
Hendrik Tolman (NCEP)
NHC Collaborators
Chris Sisko, Chris Lauer, Alison Krautkramer
IHC 2010Savannah
![Page 2: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Tasks
1. NHC User Requirements for ATCF
2. Intensity Consensus Review and Update
3. Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts
![Page 3: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. User Requirements for ATCF
-Six and Seven Day Forecasting
-Interpolator and consensus
-Statistics
-Forecast track display, dialog
-Forecast intensity display, dialog
-Central Pacific GPCE
-Based on western North Pacific coefficients
-Need more data for evaluation
-GPCE-AX display
![Page 4: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Forecast Day
Mea
n F
orec
ast
Err
or (
n m
i)
AVNIEMXITVCN
1. Six and Seven Day Forecasting Interpolator, Consensus and Statistics
Error head-to-head with TVCN. 2007-2009 Atlantic seasons.
Aids with more than 50 cases at day seven included.
![Page 5: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1. Six and Seven Day Forecasting Track Dialog
Forecast buttons
Aids (dashed)
![Page 6: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1. Six and Seven Day Forecasting Intensity Dialog
Intensity
Dialog
Changes
![Page 7: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
1. Six and Seven Day Forecasting Time-Intensity Graph
Time-Intensity
Graph
![Page 8: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Intensity Consensus Review and Update
• Forecasts are all “early models”• Consensus is average (equal weights)
forecast• ICON = DSHP+ LGEM + GHMI +
HWFI
all must be present to compute• IVCN = DSHP+ LGEM + GHMI +
HWFI + GFNI
two or more must be present to compute• Baselines for more complex methods
More info: Sampson, C. R., J. L. Franklin, J. L., J. A. Knaff and M.
DeMaria, 2007: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity
consensus. Wea. And Forecasting, 23, 304-312.
![Page 9: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2008-2009 Atlantic Intensity Skill
-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
010203040
0 1 2 3 4 5
Forecast Day
Skil
l (%
)
HWFIGHMIDSHPLGEMGFNIICONIVCN
(520) (420) (325) (263) (207) (162)
![Page 10: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2008-2009 Atlantic Intensity Skill
Using ICON as Baseline
-20
-10
0
10
20
0 1 2 3 4 5
Forecast Day
Skil
l (%
)
ICON-DSHPICON-LGEMICON-GHMIICON-HWFIIVCN-HWFIIVCN
(520) (418) (323) (261) (202) (160)
![Page 11: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
2008-2009 EastPac Intensity Skill
-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
010203040
0 1 2 3 4 5
Forecast Day
Skil
l (%
)
HWFIGHMIDSHPLGEMGFNIICONIVCN
(442) (314) (215) (161) (136) (36)
![Page 12: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
2008-2009 EastPac Intensity Skill
Using ICON as Baseline
-20
-10
0
10
20
0 1 2 3 4 5
Forecast Day
Skil
l (%
)
ICON-DSHPICON-LGEMICON-GHMIICON-HWFIIVCN-HWFIIVCN
(581) (452) (331) (222) (144) (85)
![Page 13: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Intensity Consensus Summary
•ICON the top performer in Atlantic
•IVCN a top performer in Eastpac
•Other consensus aids within ~10% skill
•Consensus performance should improve as
models are improved
![Page 14: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
3. Sea Heights Consistent with Official Forecast
1. Obtain GFS sfc winds
2. Cut out model vortex
3. Generate OFCL vortex
4. Insert OFCL in GFS sfc winds
5. Run WW3
6. Similar in concept to NAH WW3
(Modified) Goals for 2010:
Algorithm:
1. Produce grib files for NAWIPS
2. Use 6-h old GFS run to reduce latency
3. Run real-time at NRL
4. ATCF output for 12-ft seas radii
![Page 15: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report)](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070410/5681453f550346895db2098a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Progress Summary
1. NHC User Requirements for ATCF (40% complete)
2. Intensity Consensus Review and Update (50% complete)
3. Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (20% complete)