~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

2
Eieci:ior~ Ccmmlssicn of In,dia .NAME OF THE NEWSPAPER DATE: 1:, .9 Ah ZG',~_ '=e= THE INDIAN EXPRESS ~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul T HE conclusion in last Saturday's National Interest ('Still Man- dai, Still Mandir', IE, March 2, http://goo.gl/ONVud) that India now waits for some- body to pull his forces out of the trenches and break the two- decade stalemate in politics with a big new idea, has brought forth some obvious questions: Who is that likely to be? What can be some such ideas? And what if the same stalemate continues? The fir t and the third are easier to answer. Only two leaders have the strength, appeal and political wherewithal to break this stalemate: Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. And of course, it will be a most fun election if they decided to do so and locked horns in a big ideas campaign. The third question, well, you ask any Congress leader and he will answer it with a smugness that comes from two terms in power and the old TINA (There Is No Alternative) arrogance. If the stalemate continues, the election will surely be fought on old issues, or mainly identity, which suits the Congress. It is a truism confirmed by the general pattern of our state and national elections since 1989, and was even reaffirmed in Obama's re- election last year, that in a di- verse society, in an election de- fined by identity, the sum of all insecure and united minorities isoften greater than the power of a usually divided majority. But ~-----~--.------------' while such a stale campaign may again bring some kind of a UPA to power, it is more likely to re- semble 2004. " '" rl' .1 Can each re-invent, re-Iaunch himself? Only then will 2014 be the big ideas campaign SHEKHAR GUPTA men do not care. They would prefer minimalistic realism to anything adventurous, risky, go- for-broke. But will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low? There is also a lesson here for those in the BJp, particularly the semi-intellectual types who work tion, post-elections. That be- came possible in the nineties be- cause Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in- clusive and non-threatening leadership won over, at least in crucial electoral regions, allies that would have normally stayed away from a leadership of the Listen to the busybody apparatchiks and mandarins who dominate the Congress's top echelons: We can afford to lose 50, 60 or even 70 seats from 2009 and still retain power. There is merit in their cynical arithmetic. What is 200 for the BJPis 140 for them, because they are likely to be acceptable to many more allies. But there is one pre-requisite: the election must be trapped in tired old issues. New ideas must be kept out. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, is better than risking losing it. It also follows that such a weak coalition will preclude a Rahul Gandhi prime ministership in 2014. The Congressmen do not care. But - will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low? .; : '. ' ~ . ~~. tc~ . " i.. . -\ ,

Transcript of ~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

Page 1: ~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

Eieci:ior~Ccmmlssicn of In,dia.NAME OF THE NEWSPAPER DATE: 1:, .9 Ah ZG',~_

'=e=THE INDIAN EXPRESS

~Atal Modi vs Rajiv RahulTHE conclusion in last

Saturday's NationalInterest ('Still Man-dai, Still Mandir', IE,

March 2, http://goo.gl/ONVud)that India now waits for some-body to pull his forces out of thetrenches and break the two-decade stalemate in politics witha big new idea, has brought forthsome obvious questions: Who isthat likely to be? What can besome such ideas? And what ifthe same stalemate continues?The fir t and the third are easierto answer. Only two leadershave the strength, appeal andpolitical wherewithal to breakthis stalemate: Rahul Gandhiand Narendra Modi. Andof course, it will be a most funelection if they decided to do soand locked horns in a big ideascampaign.

The third question, well, youask any Congress leader and hewill answer it with a smugnessthat comes from two terms inpower and the old TINA (ThereIs No Alternative) arrogance. Ifthe stalemate continues, theelection will surely be fought onold issues, or mainly identity,which suits the Congress. It is atruism confirmed by the generalpattern of our state and nationalelections since 1989, and waseven reaffirmed in Obama's re-election last year, that in a di-verse society, in an election de-fined by identity, the sum of allinsecure and united minoritiesisoften greater than the power ofa usually divided majority. But ~-----~--.------------'while such a stale campaign mayagain bring some kind of a UPAto power, it is more likely to re-semble 2004.

" '" rl'. 1

Can each re-invent,re-Iaunch himself? Only

then will 2014 be thebig ideas campaign

SHEKHAR GUPTA

men do not care. They wouldprefer minimalistic realism toanything adventurous, risky, go-for-broke. But will RahulGandhi set the bar that low?

There is also a lesson here forthose in the BJp, particularly thesemi-intellectual types who work

tion, post-elections. That be-came possible in the nineties be-cause Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in-clusive and non-threateningleadership won over, at least incrucial electoral regions, alliesthat would have normally stayedaway from a leadership of the

Listen to the busybody apparatchiks and mandarinswho dominate the Congress's top echelons: We canafford to lose 50, 60 or even 70 seats from 2009 and

still retain power. There is merit in their cynicalarithmetic. What is 200 for the BJPis 140 for them,

because they are likely to be acceptable to many moreallies. But there is one pre-requisite: the election mustbe trapped in tired old issues. New ideas must be keptout. Retaining power, howsoever diminished, is betterthan risking losing it. It also follows that such a weak

coalition will preclude a Rahul Gandhi primeministership in 2014. The Congressmen do not care. But -

will Rahul Gandhi set the bar that low?

.; :

'. ' ~. ~~.

tc~ ." i..

. -\,

Page 2: ~Atal Modi vs Rajiv Rahul

-'-- -

Electiofl Cemmlssion of India.NAME Of THE NEWSPAPER

THE Congress has been inpower politics muchlonger than any of its ri-

vals, So it is more inclined to besatisfied with minimalistic pos-sibilities as long as it stays inpower. That is what you wouldoften hear from the busybodyapparatchiks and mandarinswho dominate its top echelons(only four of the current 19-member CWC are Lok Sabhamembers, including Sonia andRahul; of the rest, 9 are RajyaSabha members,S former MPs,one ex-MLA): We can afford tolose 50, 60, or even 70 seats from2009 and still retain power.There is merit in their cynicalarithmetic. What is 200 for theBJP is 140 for them, becausethey are likelyto be acceptable tomany more allies. But there isone pre-requisite here: the elec-tion must be trapped in tired oldissues, identity and social justice.New ideas must be kept out. Re-taining power, howsoever dimin-ished, isbetter than risking losingit. It also follows that such aweakcoalition will totally preclude aRahul Gandhi prime minister-ship in 2014. But the Congress-

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

its fringes. They have already de-clared a Modi victory. Just letModi be our prime ministerialcandidate, they say, it will po-larise the electorate and we willwin. There may be some meritin that, given that a Hindu up-surge post-1992 had given theparty Uttar Pradesh and finallypower in Delhi. But 2014 is dif-ferent. In any case, building a

Hindu right. L.K. Advani andVajpayee then complementedeach other: one divided to win,the other subsequently charmedto unite. The party no longer hassuch talent.

THE onus, therefore, is onModi to do somethingcreative to break the

stalemate or status quo that suits

him. But he knows that won't beenough. Elections are also n?tfought on the internet a~d 1W1~-ter. He will have to w1den.h1smessage, consign dated gnev-ances like appeasement of.M~s-lims fear of Pakistan, Christiancon~ersions, mandir, even ter-rorism, to cold storage. .

Does he, then, have the intel-lectual depth and political sag~c-ity to drop everything about himthat his fans love but the morenumerous others fear? Can he

'-build a fresh new agenda around. growth, development, entrepre-

neurship, good governance,equal opportunity and wealthcreation? Some of his recentpublic speeches have sugges~edthat, usual Congress-bashmgapart he is trying to smoothenhis ruder edges. Toput it simply,to win, he has to change thegame, and for that, he needs anentirely new approach from theone that made him the unchal-lenged leader of ~ujarat. I haveoften said that in 2004, aamaadmi of the Congress did notdefeat the NDXs India Shining.Itwas a case of Modi defeating Va-jpayee. Now, to get even~ith theCongress, his challenge 1Sto be-come the new Vajpayee. It maysound unrealistic, but it seemsnow that he will givethis a shot.

Similar choices confront

rt_ 1

The BJPvoters love Modi. But he knows that won't beenough. Elections are al not fought on the internet

and Twitter. He will have to widen his message,consign dated grievances like appeas ment of

Muslims, fear of Pakistan, Christian conversions,mandir, even terrorism, to cold storage. To put it

simply, to win, he has to change the game and for that,he needs an entirely new approach from the one that

made him the unchallenged leader of Gujarat. In 2004,aam aadmi of the Congress did not defeat the NDA's

India Shining. It was a case of Modi defeatingVajpayee. Now, to get even with the Congress, his

challenge is to become the new Vajpayee.

temple can never have the sameoomph as breaking amosque. Sothis willbe a risky strategy. It will,most likely, vindicate the Con-gress party's minimalists. Fur-ther, the rhetoric needed to fuelsuch polarisation willmake it im-possible to build a ruling coali-

the Congress. His aggressivestyle, lampooning of rivals,choice of words, inflexion, de-livery and sense of timing makehim one of our most impressiveorators in Hindi. But his mes-sage, so far, has only enthusedthe faithful. The BJP voters love

•munal approach takes him backto the doldrums of 2004. But itmay be different if he talksmodern economics and invokesthe globalised confidence ofRajiv Gandhi and ManmohanSingh, rather th:m the great ~utnow outdated ideas of Indiraand Nehru.

A stirring new election willthen have a Modi reinventinghimself as Vajpayee, a Rahul re-launching himself in the imageof Rajiv and Manmohan Singh,both talking economic reform,growth, governance, equalityand aspiration. Leave it, then,

. to the voter to decide who shefinds more convincing.

I .

Rahu1 Gandhi. He can letthings drift. He can presume hehas time, and settle for a de-risked, "re-elect a truncatedUPX' approach. He knows n~wthat his original idea of red.1s-covering voters where IndiraGandhi found them has notworked: those voters have ei-th~r moved on, or discoveredtheir own leaders. He has thegift of youth and modernity anda party more faithful to theleader than any in the world,and that includes the Chinesecommunists. So he, too, canbuild a new agenda around re-formist economics. Therearen't many other issues left inthe run-up t02014. Both sides oshave the same view on terr.or, ,(national security and foreignpolicy. A secular versus com-