At China War
1
8/13/2019 At China War http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/at-china-war 1/1 Bellarmine 2012-13 1/1 Debnil Sur Domestic issues MacDonald 11 – US Institute of Peace (11, Bruce W., Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic an Security !e"ie# Commission on The Im$%ications of China&s 'i%itary an Ci"i% S$ace Prorams, $f) In the face of this ro#in Chinese mi%itary s$ace cha%%ene, it is easy to assume the #orst about Chinese intentions. China see*s to be ab%e to $re"ai% mi%itari%y at some $oint in the future shou% conf%ict come, but they see the Unite States as mi%itari%y su$erior to them an thus #ou% be un%i*e%y to conscious%y $ro"o*e any mi%itary conf%ict. Whi%e #e shou% uar aainst a #orst case, #e shou% not treat it as a i"en I o not be%ie"e China or the P+ is s$oi%in for a fiht #ith the U nite S tates – China has come too far to #ant to $%ace their substantia% economic achie"ements at ris* un%ess they face an etraorinary threat to their nationa% security. In aition, China faces serious emora$hic rea%ities o"er the net cou$%e of ecaes, #here their ratio of #or*ers to retirees #i%% shrin* substantia%%y (the resu%t of their one- chi% $o%icy), #hich further unerscores China&s nee for stabi%ity an continue economic ro#th for years to come. China a%so has aitiona% nees, an "u%nerabi%ities / 0ro#in en"ironmenta% $rob%ems an #ater shortaes #ith no ob"ious so%utions that are ro#in irritants to the $ub%ic / re%ent%ess search for ne# sources of manufacturin in$uts / n increasin%y resti"e #or*in c%ass that is ma*in ne# emans for hiher #aes an $o%itica% freeoms / non-emocratic one-$arty system that %ea"es its senior %eaershi$ constant%y %oo*in o"er its shou%er at $ossib%e cha%%enes to its authority, es$ecia%%y in the aftermath of the 2rab S$rin3 / 0ro#in citi4en aner aainst corru$tion an cronyism that seems im$ossib%e for the CCP to root out an many more. These factors are reasons #hy China is $robab%y not %oo*in for #ar #ith the Unite States, thouh they a%so cou% ina"ertent%y become factors in China&s stumb%in into a conf%ict they #ou% orinari%y not #ant, throuh misca%cu%ation or istraction. It doesn’t go nuclear Mulvenon 6 5ames 'u%"enon, 6e$uty 6irector of the Center for sia-Pacific Po%icy at the !76 Cor$oration, 8ice- Presient of the Inte%%ience 6i"ision at 6efense 0rou$ Inc. (60I), 6irector of 60I&s Center for Inte%%ience !esearch an na%ysis, 9::;, 2Chinese !es$onses to U.S. 'i%itary Transformation an Im$%ications for the 6e$artment of 6efense,3 !76 Cor$oration, htt$<<###.ran.or<$ubs<monora$hs<9::;<!76='0>?:.$f, @Ahen When Chinese strateists contem$%ate ho# to affect U.S. e$%oyments, they confront the %imitations of their current con"entiona% force, #hich oes not ha"e rane sufficient to interict U.S. faci%ities or assets beyon the 5a$anese home is%ans. 7uc%ear o$tions, #hi%e theoretica%%y a"ai%ab%e, are nonethe%ess far too esca%atory to be use so ear%y in the conf%ict. Theater missi%e systems, #hich are $ossib%y mo"in to a miture of con"entiona% an nuc%ear #arheas, cou% be use aainst 5a$an or 0uam, but uncertainties about the nature of a i"en #arhea #ou% %i*e%y enerate res$onses simi%ar to the nuc%ear scenario. ccorin to the $reictab%e care of 2true be%ie"ers,3 both of the centers of ra"ity ientifie abo"e can be attac*e usin com$uter net#or* o$erations (C7). In the first case, the Chinese information o$erations (I) community be%ie"es that C7 #i%% $%ay a usefu% $sycho%oica% ro%e in unerminin the #i%% of the Tai#anese $eo$%e by attac*in infrastructure an economic "ita%ity. In the secon case, the Chinese I community en"isions C7 effecti"e%y eterrin or e%ayin U.S. inter"ention an causin $ain sufficient to com$e% Tai$ei to ca$itu%ate before the Unite States arri"es. The remainer of this section out%ines ho# these I theorists $ro$ose o$erationa%i4in such a stratey. Relations and deterrence Art 10- Christian . Derter Professor of Internationa% !e%ations at Braneis Uni"ersity an 6irector of 'ITs Seminar FFI Proram (!obert 5., 2The Unite States an the !ise of China Im$%ications for the +on Dau%,3 Po%itica% Science Guarter%y) The #or*ins of these three factors shou% ma*e us cautious%y o$timistic about *ee$in Sino-merican re%ations on the $eacefu% rather than the #ar%i*e trac*. The $eacefu% trac* oes not , by any means, im$%y the absence of $o%itica% an economic conf%icts in Sino-merican re%ations, nor oes it forec%ose coerci"e i$%omatic ambits by each aainst the other . What it oes mean is that the conitions are in $%ace for #ar to be a %o#- $robabi%ity e"ent, if $o%icyma*ers are smart in both states (see be%o#), an that an a%%-out #ar is near%y im$ossib%e to imaine. By the historica% stanars of recent ominant-risin state yas, this is no mean feat. In sum, there #i%% be some security i%emma ynamics at #or* in the U.S.-China re%ationshi$, both o"er Tai#an an o"er maritime su$remacy in East sia, shou% China ecie e"entua%%y to contest mericas maritime heemony, an there #i%% certain%y be $o%itica% an mi%itary conf%icts, but nuc%ear #ea$ons shou% #or* to mute their se"erity because the security of each states home%an #i%% ne"er be in oubt as %on as each maintains a secons tri*e ca$abi%ity "is--"is the other. If t#o states cannot conHuer one another, then the character of their re%ation an their com$etition chanes ramatica%%y.
-
Upload
sam-bullard -
Category
Documents
-
view
230 -
download
0
Transcript of At China War
8/13/2019 At China War
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/at-china-war 1/1
Bellarmine 2012-131/1 Debnil SurDomestic issuesMacDonald 11 – US Institute of Peace (11, Bruce W., Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic an Security !e"ie# Commission on The Im$%ications of China&s
'i%itary an Ci"i% S$ace Prorams, $f)
In the face of this ro#in Chinese mi%itary s$ace cha%%ene, it is easy to assume the #orst about Chinese intentions. China see*s to be ab%e
to $re"ai% mi%itari%y at some $oint in the future shou% conf%ict come, but they see the Unite States as mi%itari%y su$erior to them an thus #ou% be un%i*e%y to conscious%y $ro"o*e any mi%itary conf%ict. Whi%e #e shou% uar aainst a #orst case, #e shou% not treat it as a i"en
I o not be%ie"e China or the P+ is s$oi%in for a fiht #ith the Unite States – China has come too far to #ant to $%ace their substantia%
economic achie"ements at ris* un%ess they face an etraorinary threat to their nationa% security. In aition, China faces serious emora$hicrea%ities o"er the net cou$%e of ecaes, #here their ratio of #or*ers to retirees #i%% shrin* substantia%%y (the resu%t of their one- chi% $o%icy), #hichfurther unerscores China&s nee for stabi%ity an continue economic ro#th for years to come. China a%sohas aitiona% nees, an "u%nerabi%ities / 0ro#in en"ironmenta% $rob%ems an #ater shortaes #ith no ob"ious so%utions that are ro#in
irritants to the $ub%ic / re%ent%ess search for ne# sources of manufacturin in$uts / n increasin%y resti"e #or*in c%ass that is ma*in
ne# emans for hiher #aes an $o%itica% freeoms / non-emocratic one-$arty system that %ea"es its senior %eaershi$ constant%y %oo*in o"er its shou%er at $ossib%e
cha%%enes to its authority, es$ecia%%y in the aftermath of the 2rab S$rin3 / 0ro#in citi4en aner aainst corru$tion an cronyism that seems
im$ossib%e for the CCP to root out an many more. These factors are reasons #hy China is $robab%y not %oo*in for #ar #ith theUnite States, thouh they a%so cou% ina"ertent%y become factors in China&s stumb%in into a conf%ict they #ou% orinari%y not #ant, throuh misca%cu%ation or
istraction.
It doesn’t go nuclear
Mulvenon 65ames 'u%"enon, 6e$uty 6irector of the Center for sia-Pacific Po%icy at the !76 Cor$oration, 8ice-Presient of the Inte%%ience 6i"ision at 6efense 0rou$ Inc. (60I), 6irector of 60I&s Center for Inte%%ience!esearch an na%ysis, 9::;, 2Chinese !es$onses to U.S. 'i%itary Transformation an Im$%ications for the6e$artment of 6efense,3 !76 Cor$oration, htt$<<###.ran.or<$ubs<monora$hs<9::;<!76='0>?:.$f,@Ahen
When Chinese strateists contem$%ate ho# to affect U.S. e$%oyments, they confront the %imitations of theircurrent con"entiona% force, #hich oes not ha"e rane sufficient to interict U.S. faci%ities or assets beyon the5a$anese home is%ans. 7uc%ear o$tions, #hi%e theoretica%%y a"ai%ab%e, are nonethe%ess far too esca%atory to be use so ear%yin the conf%ict. Theater missi%e systems, #hich are $ossib%y mo"in to a miture of con"entiona% an nuc%ear #arheas, cou% be use aainst 5a$an or 0uam, but
uncertainties about the nature of a i"en #arhea #ou% %i*e%y enerate res$onses simi%ar to the nuc%ear scenario. ccorin to the $reictab%e care of 2true be%ie"ers,3 bothof the centers of ra"ity ientifie abo"e can be attac*e usin com$uter net#or* o$erations (C7). In the first case, the Chinese information o$erations (I) community
be%ie"es that C7 #i%% $%ay a usefu% $sycho%oica% ro%e in unerminin the #i%% of the Tai#anese $eo$%e by attac*in infrastructure an economic "ita%ity. In the secon case,the Chinese I community en"isions C7 effecti"e%y eterrin or e%ayin U.S. inter"ention an causin $ain sufficient to com$e% Tai$ei to ca$itu%ate before the Unite Statesarri"es. The remainer of this section out%ines ho# these I theorists $ro$ose o$erationa%i4in such a stratey.
Relations and deterrenceArt 10- Christian . Derter Professor of Internationa% !e%ations at Braneis Uni"ersity an 6irector of 'ITsSeminar FFI Proram(!obert 5., 2The Unite States an the !ise of China Im$%ications for the +on Dau%,3 Po%itica% ScienceGuarter%y)
The #or*ins of these three factors shou% ma*e us cautious%y o$timistic about *ee$in Sino-mericanre%ations on the $eacefu% rather than the #ar%i*e trac*. The $eacefu% trac* oes not , by any means, im$%y theabsence of $o%itica% an economic conf%icts in Sino-merican re%ations, nor oes it forec%ose coerci"ei$%omatic ambits by each aainst the other . What it oes mean is that the conitions are in $%ace for #ar to be a %o#-$robabi%ity e"ent, if $o%icyma*ers are smart in both states (see be%o#), an that an a%%-out #ar is near%y im$ossib%e to imaine. Bythe historica% stanars of recent ominant-risin state yas, this is no mean feat. In sum, there #i%% be some
security i%emma ynamics at #or* in the U.S.-China re%ationshi$, both o"er Tai#an an o"er maritimesu$remacy in East sia, shou% China ecie e"entua%%y to contest mericas maritime heemony, an there #i%% certain%y be $o%itica% anmi%itary conf%icts, but nuc%ear #ea$ons shou% #or* to mute their se"erity because the security of each stateshome%an #i%% ne"er be in oubt as %on as each maintains a secons tri*e ca$abi%ity "is--"is the other. If t#ostates cannot conHuer one another, then the character of their re%ation an their com$etition chanesramatica%%y.
