Astra International - miraeasset.co.id · terhadap harga minyak mentah di tahun sebelumnya (-1Y)....

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.

Astra International (ASII IJ)

All engines ready to roar

Key proxy for Indonesian economic growth

Menurut analisa regresi kami, penjualan empat roda (4W) menunjukkan korelasi kuat

sebesar 0.87x dan r-squared yang valid sebesar 0.76x terhadap pertumbuhan GDP

Indonesia, bukti hubungan simetris antara dua variabel. Kami memperkirakan GDP

Indonesia masing-masing tumbuh 5,2% dan 5,4% di 2017F dan 2018F. Karenanya, kami

percaya tumbuhnya ekonomi akan meningkatkan permintaan otomotif, mengingat

pendapatan yang lebih tinggi akan meningkatkan residual income rumah tangga. Kami

juga ingin menyoroti bahwa suku bunga rendah akan meningkatkan permintaan produk

otomotif. Kami juga menemukan korelasi kuat antara penjualan 4W dan roda dua (2W)

terhadap harga minyak mentah di tahun sebelumnya (-1Y). Korelasi dan r-squared untuk

4W masing-masing berada di 0.81x dan 0.66x, dan untuk 2W masing-masing berada di

0.91x dan 0.82x. Karenanya, harga minyak mentah yang naik pada tahun 2016 akan

menyebabkan peningkatan penjualan 4W dan 2W di 2017F. Harga minyak mentah WTI

pada tahun 2016 telah naik 45% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2015. Mengingat

peningkatan yang signifikan dan korelasi yang kami sebut di atas, kami menunggu

penjualan otomotif untuk naik signifikan tahun ini. Kami juga memperkirakan harga

minyak mentah untuk diperdagangkan di USD55/b di 2017F, yang kami lihat akan

menguatkan bisnis komoditas ke depannya.

Valuation: Diamond in the rough

ASII saat ini diperdagangkan di level 17.6x FY17F P/E (berdasarkan konsensus), di atas rata-rata lima tahunnya di 15.2x. Mengingat prospek menjanjikan perusahaan dan keyakinan kami performa perusahaan akan melebihi estimasi manajemen dan pasar, kami lihat rerating dapat terjadi dalam waktu dekat, membuka peluang ASII untuk diperdagangkan di + 2 standar deviasinya di 19x. Tingkat +2 standar deviasinya mewakili harga wajar IDR9,100/lembar, 7,4% upside dari penutupan terakhir sebesar IDR8,475/lembar.

Automotive

Company Report March 20, 2017

Recommendation Not rated

Target Price (12M, IDR) -

Share Price (3/17/17, IDR) 8,475

Expected Return -

Consensus OP (17F, IDRtr) 20.0

EPS Growth (17F, %) N/A P/E (17F, x) 17.6 Industry P/E (17F, x) 17.4 Benchmark P/E (17F, x) 16.0 Market Cap (IDRbn) 343,098.1

Shares Outstanding (mn) 40,483,6 Free Float (mn) 18,259.1 Institutional Ownership (%) 20..4 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 1.5 52-Week Low (IDR) 6,000 52-Week High (IDR) 8,875

(%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 7.3 6.3 15.7 Relative 3.7 1.1 2.3

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Miscellaneous Industry Franky Rivan +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]

FY (Dec.) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue (IDRbn) 162,564.0 188,053.0 193,880.0 201,701.0 184,196.0 181,084.0 Gross Profit (IDRbn) 32,034.0 36,200.0 35,311.0 38,809.0 36,710.0 36,432.0 Operating Profit (IDRbn) 17,832.0 19,870.0 18,603.0 20,163.0 17,212.0 17,480.0 Net Profit (IDRbn) 17,785.0 19,421.0 19,417.0 19,191.0 14,464.0 15,156.0 EPS (IDR) 439.4 479.7 479.6 474.0 357.0 374.0 BPS (IDR) 1,493.2 1,758.8 2,073.4 2,358.8 2,520.6 2,765.3 P/E (x) 16.8 15.8 14.2 15.7 16.8 22.1 P/B (x) 5.0 4.3 3.3 3.1 2.4 3.0 ROE (%) 32.4 29.5 25.0 21.4 14.6 14.2 ROA (%) 13.3 11.5 9.8 8.5 6.0 6.0 Note: NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus’ estimates

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

3/1

6

4/1

6

5/1

6

6/1

6

7/1

6

8/1

6

9/1

6

10

/16

11

/16

12

/16

1/1

7

2/1

7

3/1

7

JCI ASII(D-1yr=100)

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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 1. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Indonesia Cartoon

Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Research Indonesia

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Figure 2. Top ten largest market caps in JCI Figure 3. Top ten largest asset values in JCI

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Note: As of March 14, 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Note: As of company’s last filing on March 14, 2017, excluding financials

Figure 4. ASII’s revenue breakdown by segment, FY16 Figure 5. ASII’s revenue performance by segment

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


Figure 6. Indonesia GDP growth through the years Figure 7. Correlation of Indonesia GDP growth to 4W sales

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 8. Correlation of -1Y crude price to Indonesia 4W sales Figure 9. Correlation of -1Y crude price to Indonesia 2W sales

52.1%

9.7%

24.7%

7.7%

4.4% 1.5%

Automotive

Financial services

Heavy equipment andmining

Agribusiness

Infrastructure and logistics

IT & property

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

IT & property Infrastructure and logistics Agribusiness Heavy equipment and mining Financial services Automotive

(IDRbn)

5.0

3.6

4.54.8

5.0

5.75.5

6.3

7.4

4.7

6.46.2 6.0

5.6

5.04.8 4.9

5.25.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

(% YoY)

Correlation = 0.87R² = 0.76

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

(GDP; %YoY)

(Car sales; %YoY)

468.8

398.2383.4

334.0 323.5297.9

266.0

121.2 118.497.1

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

HMSP TLKM BBCA ASII UNVR BBRI BMRI GGRM BBNI ICBP

(IDRtr)

261.9

179.6

92.4

64.0 62.8 61.4 54.9 54.3 53.5 48.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ASII TLKM INDF UNTR GGRM WSKT EXCL BHIT JSMR ISAT

(IDRtr)

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Figure 10. ASII’s 4W sales breakdown by area Figure 11. ASII’s 2W sales breakdown by area



Figure 12. Oil is the single largest influence on the Bloomberg Commodity Index Figure 13. WTI crude oil price through the years




10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

(-1Y crude oil price; USD/bbl)

(Thousand car units sold)


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

(-1Y crude oil price; USD/bbl)

(Thousand motorcycle units sold)

28%

11%

9%7%

6%

39%

Oil

Gas

Gold

Copper

Corn

Other commodities

71%

15%

5%

5% 3% 1%

Java

Sumatra

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Bali & Nusa Tenggara

Maluku & Papua

69%

17%

5%

3% 5% 1%

Java

Sumatra

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Bali & Nusa Tenggara

Maluku & Papua

26.8

19.8

31.2 32.5

43.5

61.0 61.1

96.0

44.6

79.4

91.4

98.8

91.8

98.4

53.3

37.0

53.7 55.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

(USD/bbl)

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Figure 14. 4W market share dynamics in Indonesia Figure 15. 4W market share breakdown as of 2016

Source: Gaikindo, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research


Figure 16. 2W market share dynamics in Indonesia Figure 17. 2W market share composition as of 2016



Figure 18. ASII’s 4W sales performance Figure 19. ASII’s 2W sales performance



48.5

54.851.4 52.3

57.855.8 54.0 54.2 53.2

50.8 50.4

55.7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Non-Astra 4W market share Astra 4W market share

52.2 52.9

45.7 46.2 46.2 46.3

53.357.9

60.764.2

68.7

73.9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Non-Astra 2W market share Astra 2W market share

17.9%

1.6%

36.0%

0.2%

44.3%

Daihatsu (Astra)

Isuzu (Astra)

Toyota (Astra)

Other Astra

Non-Astra sales

74%

23%

1% 2%

Honda (Astra)

Yamaha

Suzuki

Kawasaki

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

(units)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

(units)

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Figure 20. Komatsu’s sales breakdown Figure 21. Escalating infrastructure development budget


Source: Ministry of Finance, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research

Figure 22. ASII’s P/E range


1016

2328

3646

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Forestry Agribusiness Mining Construction

114.2 145.5 155.9

177.9

290.4 307.1

378.3 8.8

9.8 9.4 9.5

14.6 14.7

18.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

LKPP 2011 LKPP 2012 LKPP 2013 APBN-P 2014 APBN-P 2015 APBN-P 2016 APBN 2017

Infrastructure budget (L) Infrastructure budget to govt spending (R)(IDRtr) (%)

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

3/12 9/12 3/13 9/13 3/14 9/14 3/15 9/15 3/16 9/16

Consensus 17F P/E +1 SD -1 SD +2 SD -2 SD 5-year avg(x)

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APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings

Buy Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving

Trading Buy Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral Fundamentals are steady without any material changes

Hold Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening

Sell Relative performance of -10%

* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. Analyst Certification Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Indonesian language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Indonesian language, the original Indonesian language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

Disclosures As of the publication date, PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

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Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Mirae Asset Daewoo International Network

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (Seoul) Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. Global Equity Sales Team Mirae Asset Center 1 Building 26 Eulji-ro 5-gil, Jung-gu, Seoul 04539 Korea

Suites 1109-1114, 11th Floor Two International Finance Centre 8 Finance Street, Central Hong Kong China

41st Floor, Tower 42 25 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1HQ United Kingdom

Tel: 82-2-3774-2124 Tel: 852-2845-6332 Tel: 44-20-7982-8000

Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Wealth Management (USA) Inc. Mirae Asset Wealth Management (Brazil) CCTVM 810 Seventh Avenue, 37th Floor New York, NY 10019 USA

555 S. Flower Street, Suite 4410, Los Angeles, California 90071 USA

Rua Funchal, 418, 18th Floor, E-Tower Building Vila Olimpia Sao Paulo - SP 04551-060 Brasil

Tel: 1-212-407-1000 Tel: 1-213-262-3807 Tel: 55-11-2789-2100

PT. Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Mirae Asset Securities (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. Mirae Asset Securities (Vietnam) LLC Equity Tower Building Lt. 50 Sudirman Central Business District Jl. Jend. Sudirman, Kav. 52-53 Jakarta Selatan 12190 Indonesia

6 Battery Road, #11-01 Singapore 049909 Republic of Singapore

7F, Saigon Royal Building 91 Pasteur St. District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

Tel: 62-21-515-3281 Tel: 65-6671-9845 Tel: 84-8-3911-0633 (ext.110)

Mirae Asset Securities Mongolia UTsK LLC Mirae Asset Investment Advisory (Beijing) Co., Ltd Beijing Representative Office

#406, Blue Sky Tower, Peace Avenue 17 1 Khoroo, Sukhbaatar District Ulaanbaatar 14240 Mongolia

2401B, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District Beijing 100022 China

2401A, 24th Floor, East Tower, Twin Towers B12 Jianguomenwai Avenue, Chaoyang District Beijing 100022 China

Tel: 976-7011-0806 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 (ext. 3300)

Shanghai Representative Office Ho Chi Minh Representative Office

38T31, 38F, Shanghai World Financial Center 100 Century Avenue, Pudong New Area Shanghai 200120 China

7F, Saigon Royal Building 91 Pasteur St. District 1, Ben Nghe Ward, Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

Tel: 86-21-5013-6392 Tel: 84-8-3910-7715

Astra International - miraeasset.co.id · terhadap harga minyak mentah di tahun sebelumnya (-1Y)....

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Transcript of Astra International - miraeasset.co.id · terhadap harga minyak mentah di tahun sebelumnya (-1Y)....