Assessment on Disaster Risks and Post Disaster Impact
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Transcript of Assessment on Disaster Risks and Post Disaster Impact
BANGLADESH SESSION 2
ASSESSMENT OF DISASTER RISKS AND POST-DISASTER IMPACT
September 25, 2014, China
Presented by:
Satyabrata Saha Joint Secretary (DM) Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh is positioned at the juncture of several active tectonic plate boundaries. Moreover, it lies on the world’s largest river delta at close to sea level, facing both the risk posed by a quake and secondary risks of tsunamis and flooding in the quake’s aftermath.
TECTONIC SETTING OF BANGLADESH
RECENT EARTHQUAKES 1997, May 8: Sylhet EQ (Mb = 5.6)
1997, November 21: Bandarban EQ (Mb = 6.1)
1999, July 22: Moheshkhali EQ (Mb = 5.1)
2001, December 19: Dhaka EQ ( Mb= 4.2)
2003, July 27: Rangamati (Barkal) EQ (Ms=5.5)
2005, October: Jessore (Narial) EQ (Ms=4.3)
2008, July 5: Rajshahi (Tanore) EQ (Ms=4.1)
2008, July 27: Mymensingh (Haluaghat) EQ (Ms=4.9)
2009 - 2014: country frequently experiences earthquake having epicentre in and around.
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Different magnitude levels of historical Earthquake occurrences in Bangladesh (1885-1990)
>
Year Total event within 600 km Within Bangladesh
2007 27 13
2008 51 30
2009 32 16
Total Event 110 59
DAMAGES OF SOME EARTHQUAKES
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Building collapsed, Chittagong, 1999
BDR Camp, Barkal fault, Rangamati 2007
Mud House Damage, Barkal, Rangamati 2007
Buildings toppled, Rajshahi 2008
Side-wall Collapse, Mymensingh
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Seismic Hazard
Building Stock Lifeline Systems
Geological Data
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0 30 60 90 120 150
PGV (cm/s)
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Collapse
Extensive Damage
Moderate Damage Small Damage
Damge
SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT (APPROACH)
SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Major Research and Studies since 2009
Active Fault Mapping and Modeling in Bangladesh by Dr. Michio Morino (2009)
Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area by ADPC (2009)
Time-Predictable Fault Modeling for Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet City Corporation Area by ADPC and OYO International Corporation (2009)
Quaternary Geological Mapping of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet Cities by Dr. Md. Hussain Monsur
Engineering geological map for seismic hazard and vulnerability assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet city corporation area
Active fault mapping in Bangladesh: Paleo-seismological study of the Dauki fault and the Indian-Burman plate boundary fault by Dr. Michio Morino and Dr. A. S. M. Maksud Kamal (2013)
Development of Geo Dynamic Model of Bangladesh by ADPC (2014)
Development of Building Inventory Modeling in 50 Wards of Dhaka and Chittagong City by ADPC (2014)
Seismic risk assessment completed in six EQ vulnerable cities by ADPC (2014)
6 City level and 50 ward level spatial contingency plans completed by ADPC (2014)
Risk incorporated land use plan developed for Mymensing City by Urban Development Directorate (2014)
Urban Community Risk Assessment Guideline (2014)
RISK ASSESSMENT SOCIO ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL
CDMP II has facilitated Urban Risk Assessment (URA) in 3 wards of Dhaka North City Corporation and also developed Risk Reduction Action Plan (RRAP) in collaboration with ActionAid Bangladesh.
Developed a Facilitators Guidebook on conduction of URA
Is in the process of Scaling up to conduct this URA in 22 more wards of 12 City Corporations/Municipalities in 11 Major Districts
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Risk Reduction Interventions
• Preparedness and mitigation
• Response
• Recovery/rehabilitation
Risk Assessment
• URA
• FTRA
• RRAP
EQ IMPACT: PREDICTION BASED
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Seismic Vulnerability Assessment (2009)
Dhaka City Corporation (7.5 Mw): Building damage: 326,000 Damage beyond repair: 72,316 Economic loss: $16,740 million
GIS-based Building Inventory Using Satellite Images (Quick bird) and Field Investigations
Chittagong City Corp. (8.5 Mw): Building damage: 182,000 Damage beyond repair: 142,856 Economic loss: $3,378 million
Sylhet City Corp. (8.0 Mw): Building damage: 52,000 Building beyond repair: 24,944 Economic loss: $926 million
EQ IMPACT: DAMAGE ESTIMATION
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Scenario Based
City Corporation Fault Name Exten.-modern Building Damage
Com. Building Damage
Dhaka
Madhupur Fault (Mw 7.5)
86,000 72,000
Plate Boundary Fault 2 (Mw 8.0)
47,000 45,000
Chittagong
Plate Boundary Fault 1 (Mw 8.5)
25,000 142,000
Plate Boundary Fault 2 (Mw 8.0)
40,000 18,000
Sylhet
Dauki Fault 16,000 25,000
Plate Boundary Fault 3 (Mw 8.0)
10,000 2,000
EQ IMPACT: OTHERS
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Scenario Based: GENERATION OF DEBRIS
City Corporation Scenario Earthquake Amount of Debris (million of tons)
Truckloads (@25 tons/truck)
Dhaka Madhupur Fault 30 1,200,000
Chittagong Plate Boundary Fault 1 17 700,000
Sylhet Dauki Fault 2 80,000
Scenario Based: DAMAGE TO LIFELINE SERVICES (DHAKA CITY)
Services Poles/Line Length Damages of Poles Number of breaks
Electricity 55,000 16,000 -
Gas 834 km - 191 km
Potable water 1,118 km - 272 km
Sewage line 630 km - 360 km
EQ IMPACT: ESSENTIAL FACILITIES
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Scenario Based 7.5 Mw : Dhaka City Corporation Area Facilities Number Moderate
damages Complete damages
50% operational on Day 1
Hospitals 600 197 10 280
Schools 2,737 857 90 1,241
Police Stations 62 21 0 23
Fire Stations 10 4 1 5
LESSON LEARNT AND WAY FORWARD
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MoDMR)
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Lessons LEARNED Key point installation and heavy structure should be constructed following the intensity given in
Micro-zonation maps
Micro-zonation maps should be integrated with the detailed area plan to develop risk integrated Land use plan
Proper geotechnical/engineering geological, structural, architectural and monitoring knowledge should be applied during the construction of a buildings
Way FORWARD
Include more cities to for URA.
Revision and promoting the application /enforcement of Bangladesh National Building Code, ongoing effort to develop a national guidelines on Disaster Response Mechanism; advocacy of safer construction of public infrastructure; support to the Earthquake Preparedness and Awareness Committee (EPAC)
Raising individual, family and community level awareness to develop risk reduction culture.
Working with the City Development Authority/ Municipality to incorporate the Risk Assessment Results into existing City Master Plans
Thank you
For more information contact:
Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief
Bangladesh Secretariat , Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
E-mail: [email protected], Website: www.modmr.gov.bd