Concluding Regional Workshop on Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic

Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 20052005

Assessment of Drought Impact Assessment of Drought Impact

in in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case StudyBalochistan, Pakistan: Case Study

Pakistan Council of Research in Water ResourcesPakistan Council of Research in Water Resources

Engr. Muhammad AzamEngr. Muhammad AzamDirectorDirector

Part-I: Drought in BalochistanPart-I: Drought in Balochistan

Part-II: Main Result of the Case StudyPart-II: Main Result of the Case Study

Geographical Area: 796,044 km2

Desert Area: 110,000 km2

ProvinceProvince AridArid(km(km22))

Semi AridSemi Arid(km(km22))

Sub Humid Sub Humid (km(km22))

HumidHumid(km(km22))

Total AreaTotal Area(km(km22))

PunjabPunjab 119,310119,310 59,67859,678 170,14170,14 10,19710,197 206,199206,199

SindhSindh 134,896134,896 6,0186,018 -- -- 140,914140,914

BalochistanBalochistan 149,467149,467 197,723197,723 -- -- 347,190347,190

NWFPNWFP 6,1946,194 16,49116,491 15,16015,160 36,67636,676 74,52174,521

FATAFATA -- 13,58013,580 11,23911,239 2,4012,401 27,22027,220

Total:Total: 409,867409,867 293,490293,490 43,41343,413 49,27449,274 796,044796,044

% of Total% of Total 51.4951.49 36.8736.87 5.455.45 6.196.19 100100

Province-Wise Aridity in PakistanProvince-Wise Aridity in Pakistan

Present Land-Use Statistics

1. Area not available for cultivation (58.6%)2. Forest (5%)3. Culturable waste (21.1%)

4. Fallow (6.5%)5. Net sown

20.34601.87508.715

02.25701.528

Total Geographical Area 34.720

Source: Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan (1996-97)

S.No. Description Area (MHA)

Total No. of Districts = 26

ZHOB

QILLA SAIFULLAH

LORALAI

KALAT

SIBI

KHUZDAR

CHAGAI

KHARAN

PANJGUR

TURBAT

ARABIAN SEA

LASBELA

ZIARAT

MASTUNG

QUETTA

AWARAN

Jiwani

KOHLU

PISHINK.ABDULLAH

OrmaraPasni

NASIRABAD

GAWADAR

KACHHI

DERABUGTI

R IV E R B A S IN S O F B A L O C H IS T A N

Hamun-e-Lora

Hamun-e-Mashkhel

Rakhshan River

Dasht River

Gwadar Ormara

Hingol River

Pishin Lora

Kachhi Plain

Hingol River

Nari River

Zhob River

Kand River

Kadanai River

Porali River

Area in Square miles

1. Zhob River Basin (9668.16)2. Nari River Baisn (9212.60)3. P ishin River Basin (6647.46)4. K achhi P lain Basin (13236.56)5. Hamun-e-Lora (2877.96)6. Hamun-e-Mashkhel (12128.29)7. Mula River Basin (3271.85)8. Gaj River Basin (2317.28)9. Rakhshan River Basin (897.1)10. Hingol River Basin (16951.75)11. Dasht River Basin (10480.59)12. Porali River Basin (9682.91)13. Gwadar Ormara Basin (19047.25)14. Misc: (17692.20)

Livestock Population in BalochistanLivestock Population in Balochistan

(million Heads)(million Heads)

ProvinceProvince SheepSheep GoatGoat CamelCamel CattleCattle

PunjabPunjab 5.95.9 18.318.3 0.140.14 23.923.9

SindhSindh 4.44.4 11.711.7 0.230.23 13.913.9

BalochistanBalochistan 10.710.7 10.610.6 0.330.33 1.71.7

NWFPNWFP 3.23.2 8.68.6 0.060.06 6.36.3

Total:Total: 24.224.2 49.249.2 0.760.76 45.845.8

% of Total in % of Total in BalochistanBalochistan 4444 2222 4343 44

Major Fruit Production in Balochistan Major Fruit Production in Balochistan

(000, tonnes)(000, tonnes)

ProvinceProvince ApplApplee

ApricoApricott

GrapGrapee

PomegranatPomegranatee

AlmondAlmond

PunjabPunjab 2.52.5 0.50.5 -- 15.315.3 --

SindhSindh 0.20.2 -- -- -- --

BalochistanBalochistan 437.8437.8 155.9155.9 65.765.7 79.179.1 43.043.0

NWFPNWFP 91.991.9 19.419.4 1.61.6 2.32.3 2.92.9

Total:Total: 532.3532.3 175.8175.8 67.367.3 96.796.7 46.046.0

% of Total in % of Total in Balochistan Balochistan 8282 8787 9898 8282 9393

Water Resources of BalochistanWater Resources of Balochistan

Water SourceWater Source Quantity Quantity (Bm3)(Bm3)

Surface WaterSurface Water 26.1326.13

Canals (Indus River System)Canals (Indus River System) 10.4410.44

Flood Runoff (Rainfall)Flood Runoff (Rainfall) 15.6915.69

Groundwater Groundwater 1.071.07

Total:Total: 27.2027.20

Major Water Issues in BalochistanMajor Water Issues in Balochistan

Water Scarcity High Evaporation Losses (3000 mm) Low water use efficiencies Depleting groundwater aquifers

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

No

. o

f tu

bew

ell

s

Public Private Total

Total Cultivated Area: 1.99 MhaTotal Cultivated Area: 1.99 Mha Irrigated Farming: 58%Irrigated Farming: 58%

– Canal IrrigationCanal Irrigation

– Karez/Spring IrrigationKarez/Spring Irrigation

– Tubewell/Lift IrrigationTubewell/Lift Irrigation

Dry Farming: 42%Dry Farming: 42%– Sailaba (Floodwater) Irrigation Sailaba (Floodwater) Irrigation

– Khushkaba (Rainfall/Localized Runoff) IrrigationKhushkaba (Rainfall/Localized Runoff) Irrigation

Crop Production Systems in BalochistanCrop Production Systems in Balochistan

Karez IrrigationKarez Irrigation

Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels or underground tunnels to command areas.or underground tunnels to command areas.

Sailaba IrrigationSailaba Irrigation

Diversion and Spreading of Intermittent Flow of Hill Torrents

Khushkaba IrrigationKhushkaba Irrigation

Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow paths in piedmont plains.paths in piedmont plains.

DroughtDrought

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists

long enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalancelong enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalance

Types of DroughtTypes of Drought

Slight: When the rains are 50% below normal during a particular crop season

Mild: When the rains continue to be 50% below normal for the two crop seasons

Moderate: When the rains are 50% below normal and continue for the three consecutive crop seasons

Severe: When the below normal rain persists, continues and prolongs up to four crop seasons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Years

Ann

ual R

ainf

all (

mm

)

Quetta Killa Abdullah Jiwani Panjgur Sibbi

Average Annual RainfallAverage Annual Rainfall

Barkhan, Khuzdar, Kohlu,

Moderate Effected Districts:Moderate Effected Districts:

Severe Effected Districts:Severe Effected Districts:

Awaran, Bolan, Chagai, Dera Bugti,Gwadar, Jhal Magsi,

LoralaiMusa Khail, Sibi,

Kalat, Kharan, Kila Saifullah, Kila Abdullah, Lasbela,Khuzdar

Mastung, Panjgoor, Pishin, Quetta, Turbat

Zhob, Ziarat

Part - II

To assess socio-economic impacts of To assess socio-economic impacts of drought based on improved drought based on improved methodologymethodology

To identify key parameters and To identify key parameters and possible indicators for measuring possible indicators for measuring

impact of drought disasterimpact of drought disaster

Objectives of the Case StudyObjectives of the Case Study

1)1) Reviewed preliminary drought reportsReviewed preliminary drought reports

2)2) Selected study areaSelected study area

3)3) Identified key parameters and indicators Identified key parameters and indicators according to the objectivesaccording to the objectives

4)4) Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. departments, NGOs, individuals, etc.departments, NGOs, individuals, etc.

5)5) Conducted interviews of all stake holdersConducted interviews of all stake holders

6)6) Analyzed the collected data/informationAnalyzed the collected data/information

7)7) Drafted drought impact assessment reportDrafted drought impact assessment report

Adopted ApproachAdopted Approach for Drought Impact for Drought Impact

AssessmentAssessment

Accessibility of the study areaAccessibility of the study area Socio economic importance of the areaSocio economic importance of the area Visible drought effect due to recorded Visible drought effect due to recorded

reduced rainfallreduced rainfall

Continuous drop in water tables, river flows Continuous drop in water tables, river flows and surface reservoirsand surface reservoirs

Reasonable data/information available for Reasonable data/information available for analysis (pre and post drought period)analysis (pre and post drought period)

Selected Study Area: Pishin LoraSelected Study Area: Pishin Lora BasinBasin

AdoptedAdopted Criteria for Selection of Criteria for Selection of

Study Area Study Area

S.#S.# River BasinRiver Basin Groundwater Resources (Million cubic meter)Groundwater Resources (Million cubic meter)

AvailableAvailable UsedUsed BalanceBalance

11 Human-e-LoraHuman-e-Lora 33.9033.90 16.8416.84 17.0617.06

22 KachiKachi 37.8037.80 11.9011.90 25.9025.90

33 NariNari 25.6025.60 25.6025.60 0.000.00

44 Pishin LoraPishin Lora 129.60129.60 129.60129.60 0.000.00

55 PoraliPorali 149.10149.10 74.6074.60 74.5074.50

66 HubHub 119.40119.40 59.6059.60 59.8059.80

77 Winder NaiWinder Nai 10.9010.90 5.205.20 5.705.70

88 Zhob Zhob 111.70111.70 102.40102.40 9.309.30

99 DashtDasht 45.5045.50 8.908.90 36.6036.60

1010 RakshanRakshan 24.0024.00 4.404.40 19.6019.60

1111 Hamun-e-MusakhelHamun-e-Musakhel 61.0061.00 4.704.70 56.3056.30

1212 HingolHingol 265.00265.00 132.70132.70 132.30132.30

1313 GajGaj 34.0034.00 18.0018.00 16.0016.00

1414 MulaMula 23.0023.00 9.009.00 14.0014.00

1070.501070.50 603.44603.44 467.06467.06

Source: Balochistan Conservation Strategy, 2000

Annual Groundwater Potential in River BasinsAnnual Groundwater Potential in River Basins

Northern highland region of BalochistanNorthern highland region of Balochistan

Climate: cold winters and mild summerClimate: cold winters and mild summer

Annual precipitation: 150 to 200 mmAnnual precipitation: 150 to 200 mm

Landscape characterized by hill torrents, Landscape characterized by hill torrents, mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial fansfans

Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic mattermatter

Main economy: livestock and agricultureMain economy: livestock and agriculture

Pishin Lora BasinPishin Lora Basin

S.#S.# Sub basinSub basin Area (kmArea (km22)) Main Main Cities/TownsCities/Towns

11 PishinPishin 6,8186,818 Quetta*Quetta*

Pishin*Pishin*

Killa Abdullah*Killa Abdullah*

MastungMastung

KuchlaghKuchlagh

KalatKalat

KolpurKolpur

22 MangocharMangochar 664664

33 QuettaQuetta 1,7801,780

44 MastungMastung 785785

55 KalatKalat 2,2202,220

66 KapotoKapoto 167167

77 Sardar KhelSardar Khel 491491

88 KolpurKolpur 111111

99 KuchlaghKuchlagh 1,7341,734

1010 ShirinabShirinab 1,3121,312

1111 Patki ShahnawazPatki Shahnawaz 988988

TotalTotal 17,07017,070

Quetta, Killa Abdullah and Pishin

Sub-basins of Pishin-LoraSub-basins of Pishin-Lora

Selected DistrictsSelected Districts

DistrictDistrict QuettaQuetta PishinPishin K-K-AbdullahAbdullah

TotalTotal

Geographical Geographical Area (Mha)Area (Mha)

0.2650.265 0.5850.585 0.5260.526 1.3761.376

Population Population (million)(million)

0.7590.759 0.3660.366 0.3910.391 1.5161.516

Households Households (000, No.)(000, No.)

9999 5959 5050 208208

Priority Priority OrderOrder

ParameterParameter IndicatorIndicator

11 LivestockLivestock Sheep/goatSheep/goat

22 OrchardsOrchards AppleApple

33 CropsCrops WheatWheat

44 Groundwater Groundwater dependable sourcesdependable sources

TubewellTubewell KarezeKareze SpringSpring

55 HouseholdsHouseholds DietDiet HealthHealth

Identified Key Parameters and IndicatorsIdentified Key Parameters and Indicators

Meteorology Office, QuettaMeteorology Office, Quetta

Provincial Agriculture DepartmentProvincial Agriculture Department

Provincial Irrigation and Power Provincial Irrigation and Power departmentdepartment

Arid Zone Research CentreArid Zone Research Centre

Water Resources Development and Water Resources Development and Planning CentrePlanning Centre

Identified Relevant AgenciesIdentified Relevant Agencies

Participatory appraisal survey (RPA)Participatory appraisal survey (RPA)

Questionnaire development and testingQuestionnaire development and testing

Questionnaire parameters include land Questionnaire parameters include land holding, crops/orchards, livestock, holding, crops/orchards, livestock, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, market prices of items (pre & post market prices of items (pre & post drought)drought)

Sample size in each district: 150Sample size in each district: 150

Interviews of StakeholdersInterviews of Stakeholders

Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah

Total

Sheep/goat before drought (No.)

106,942 440,637 285,519 833,098

Perished during drought period (No.)

96,248 370,135 254,112 720,495

Perished (%) 90 84 89 88

Total Losses* (Rs. in million)

202 777 534 1513

•Present average market price per head: Rs. 2100/-

Direct Losses to Sheet/GoatDirect Losses to Sheet/Goat

Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah

Total

Sheep/goat before drought (No.)

106,942 440,637 285,519 833,098

Sale during drought period (No.)

96,248 370,135 254,112 720,495

Total Losses* (Rs. in million)

144 555 381 1081

Average sale loss: Rs. 1500/-

Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat

• Loss of two completely lost breeding seasons (2001 & 2002) because of reduced conception due to poor feed and health

• Abortion in pregnant animals due to poor feed and health

• Kid mortality occurred due to shortage of milk with mothers

• Drastic reduction in wool and hair

Non-Quantified Indirect LossesNon-Quantified Indirect Losses

• Reduction in stock buildup capacity

• Depletion of flock owners’ ready cash to meet household needs

• Affected cottage industries due to reduction in wool and hair

• Reduction in meat, milk and milk products Drastic

• Increase of mutton prices in Quetta by almost 60%

Secondary EffectsSecondary Effects

Impact of Drought on OrchardsImpact of Drought on Orchards

ParameterParameter QuettaQuetta PishinPishin Killa Killa AbdullahAbdullah

TotalTotal

Orchards before Orchards before drought- Nos. drought- Nos.

841841 1,5211,521 5,1855,185 7,5477,547

Dried trees during Dried trees during drought-Nos.drought-Nos.

425,900425,900 885,000885,000 1351,601351,6000

2662,5002662,500

Dried trees per Dried trees per orchard-Nos.orchard-Nos.

506506 582582 261261 1,3491,349

Annual fruit Annual fruit production/tree-kgproduction/tree-kg

3030 3030 3030 3030

Market price per kg – Market price per kg – Rs.Rs.

2020 2020 2020 2020

Annual fruit value Annual fruit value per tree – Rs.per tree – Rs.

600600 600600 600600 600600

Annual loss per Annual loss per orchard – Rs.orchard – Rs.

303,600303,600 349,200349,200 156,600156,600 809,400809,400

Total annual damage Total annual damage (million Rs)(million Rs)

255255 531531 812812 1,5981,598

Direct Losses of Apple OrchardsDirect Losses of Apple Orchards

•Indirect Losses of Apple OrchardsParameterParameter QuettaQuetta PishinPishin Killa Killa AbdullahAbdullah

Yield before drought Yield before drought (kg/ha)(kg/ha)

15,14915,149 15,27915,279 15,27915,279

Yield during drought Yield during drought period (kg/ha)period (kg/ha)

1,6911,691 5,9715,971 5,2045,204

Yield reduction Yield reduction (kg/ha)(kg/ha)

13,45813,458 9,3089,308 12,77512,775

Loss per hectare (Rs)*Loss per hectare (Rs)* 269,160269,160 186,160186,160 255,500255,500

Orchard area before Orchard area before drought (ha)drought (ha)

3,0253,025 4,2984,298 4,2994,299

Total Loss (million Rs)Total Loss (million Rs) 814814 800800 1,0981,098

* Market price per kg=Rs20

Indirect Losses of Apple OrchardsIndirect Losses of Apple Orchards

Loss of farm labor

Unemployment in the market

Increase in prices

Effect on factory labor

……..

Secondary EffectsSecondary Effects

Parameter Quetta Pishin Killa Abdulla

h

Total

Wheat area before drought (ha)

3,500 22,200 7,868 33,568

Wheat area during drought (ha)

2,510 7,567 2,455 12,532

Reduction in area (ha) 990 14,633 5,413 21,036

Wheat yield before drought (kg/ha)

2189 2109 2359 2219

*Total Direct Loss (million Rs)

16 231 96 343

* Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/-

Direct Losses of Wheat CropDirect Losses of Wheat Crop

Parameter Quetta Pishin Killa Abdullah

Total

Wheat Production before drought (tons)

7,660 46,830 18,564 73,054

Wheat Production during drought (tons)

4,998 15,885 4,369 25,252

Production reduction (tons)

2,662 30,945 14,195 47,802

*Total Indirect Loss (million Rs)

20 232 107 359

* Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/-

Indirect Losses of Wheat CropIndirect Losses of Wheat Crop

Loss of farm labor

Loss of straw/fodder

Unemployment in the market

Price increase of cereal products

Effect on factory labor

……..

Secondary EffectsSecondary Effects

Huna Lake,QuettaHuna Lake,Quetta

Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah

Total

Working tubewells prior to drought (No.)

820 2,210 4,202 7232

Tubewells dried during drought period (No.)

499 1,301 2,575 4375

Tubewells dried (%) 61 59 61 60

Average groundwater level declined (m)

152 137 163 151

*Additional drilling cost with 10% increase in electric charges (Rs. in million)

0.29 0.26 0.31 0.29

Cumulative capital loss (Rs. In Million)

145 338 798 1281 

Indirect Capital Loss of Dried TubewellsIndirect Capital Loss of Dried Tubewells

*Drilling cost with pipe assembling = Rs. 1640/m

10% increase in electric motor and electrification = Rs: 40,000/-

Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah

Total

*Alive Karezes before drought (No.)

55 350 398 803

Karezes vanished during drought period (No.)

45 292 284 621

Dried Karezes (%) 82 83 71 79

**Sale price of irrigation water per annum (Rs. in million)

2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Capital loss per annum (Rs. in million)

117 759 738 1614

Capital loss during drought (Rs. in million)

702 4554 4428 9684 

Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Karezes Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Karezes

* Karez discharge = 1 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

Parameter Quetta Pishin Kila Abdullah

Total

*Alive spring before drought (No.)

59 609 1,400 2068

Springs vanished during drought period (No.)

52 488 1,195 1735

Dried springs (%) 88 80 85 84

**Sale price per annum (Rs. in million)

1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31

Capital loss per annum to farmers (Rs. in million)

68 639 1,565 2,273

Capital loss during drought to farmers (Rs. in million)

408 3834 9390 13632

Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Springs Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Springs

* Spring discharge = 1/2 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

BeforeBefore DuringDuring

Wheat bread, meat, Wheat bread, meat, tea, milk, yogurt, tea, milk, yogurt, vegetables and fruits vegetables and fruits

Limited to wheat Limited to wheat flour and tea onlyflour and tea only

Health• Common health complaints: diarrhea, vomiting and

fever

• Widespread malnutrition among women and children

• Life of infants at risk due to shortage of breast milk

• More vulnerability in patients of tuberculosis and hepatitis

Diet

Impact of Drought on Diet/HealthImpact of Drought on Diet/Health

Indicator

Financial Loss (million Rs)

TotalDirect Loss Indirect Loss

Quetta Pishin Killa Abdullah

Quetta Pishin Killa Abdullah

Sheep/Goat 202 777 534 144 555 381 2593

Apple Orchard

255 531 812 814 800 1098 4310

Wheat 16 231 96 20 232 107 702

Tubewell - - - 145 338 798 1281

Karez - - - 702 4554 4428 9684

Spring - - - 408 3834 9390 13632

Total (million Rs)

473 1539 1442 2233 10313 16202 32202

Cumulative Financial Losses during Cumulative Financial Losses during

DroughtDrought

Districts Districts (No.)(No.)

Population Population (million)(million)

Impact Impact

(Rs. billion)(Rs. billion)

33 1.511.51 3232

2626 6.576.57 140140

Macro-Economic ImpactMacro-Economic Impact

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