Assessing traffic-generated “dread” risk · generated risks alongside other major risks...

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Assessing traffic-generated “dread” risk

World Transport Policy &Practice2/4 [1996] 3–7

© MCB University Press [ISSN 1352-7614]

The decision process behindobserved individual behaviouris known to be a complex one.This is especially so whenaspects of that same behav-iour are apparently contradic-tory. Introduces a measure-ment scale for revealingunderlying motivations forbehaviour. Focuses on the tripto school by car; apparentlyfavoured by individuals onsafety grounds, however, italso leads to extra trips andtherefore increases car-bornepollution. Tests the scale in asurvey involving British geog-raphy undergraduates.

Alan G. HallsworthProfessor of Geography, Staffordshire University, UKColin BlackResearcher, University of Portsmouth, UKDavid Evans, Rodney TolleySenior Lecturers in Geography, Staffordshire University, UK

Introduction

In this paper we focus on the problems gener-ated by the propensity of British parents totake their children to school by car. This is anexample of how, while we “think global” inthe face of common environmental problems,we also “act local”: producing local outcomesthat can vary considerably. The numbers ofchildren being driven to school in Britain arewell ahead of those in other countries despitethere ostensibly being a common awarenessof Dread Risk (Slovic, 1987) from car-bornepollutants. Clearly, common problems aremediated by local circumstance: but how toanalyse the problem? Since Slovic put car-generated risks alongside other major risksincluding nuclear war, and since reactions tonuclear war risk have been well documented,we seek in this paper to draw some analogies.We use existing nuclear war work (Halls-worth, 1987) that showed how individualsused psychological “coping mechanisms” inthe face of perceived threats.

We relate this to the trip to school by askingwhich issues are at the forefront of one’smind when such trips are contemplated – andwhich are pushed to the deeper recesses. Weknow that there are cross-national differ-ences in this process because, as all traffic-related issues have risen in salience (Good-win et al., 1992; Tolley 1990; Whitelegg, 1993)so the types of cross-national differences inresponses also reported in the nuclear threatwork (Hallsworth, 1987, p. 293) have againbecome evident. This is particularly clearfrom Anglo-German cross-national work byHillman et al. (1990) – yet only recently (Tran-ter and Whitelegg, 1994) has new empiricalevidence been produced to compare with theoriginal work. It is especially of note that theschool-trip problem has been responded to ina particular way in Britain: “safe routes” and“walk-to-school” initiatives being announced(Tolley, 1995). Our basic question is this:When we think of “safety”, from which riskare we seeking to protect ourselves (and ourchildren)?

The journey to school

Recent figures suggest that, in Britain, some30 per cent of all peak-hour car trips involvejourneys to school and it is currently sug-gested that a full 25 per cent of all car tripsmade by British schoolchildren are trips toschool. General contextual factors to the tripto school have recently been discussed (Brad-shaw, 1995) though only limited informationseems to be available on the travel habits ofthe youngest school children (for example,Black and Hallsworth, 1994). We find the Hill-man et al. (1990) researches to be very interest-ing for one particular reason: there is, in theHillman work, a clear expression of how littlereal danger there is to child’s wellbeing on awalk to school. Germans seem to accept thissince most small children walk to school with-out an adult (Hillman et al., 1990, p. 52).Indeed, at the age of seven, the ratio betweenGerman and English children allowed to walkto school alone is 8:1 (Hillman, 1993, p. 14) ThisBritish “avoidance tactic” is a common onethat has a direct parallel in work on crime: 81 per cent of British people who feel veryunsafe because of crime fears never go outalone at night on foot (Mirlees-Black andMaung, 1994, p. 2). When a child is taken toschool, does the parent think first of the envi-ronment, of personal convenience, cost, etc.,or of road safety issues? Certainly, others haveshown that there is more than one problem forparents:

Children... have particular problems copingwith traffic ...and... fears of assault andmolestation (Tranter and Whitelegg, 1994, p. 265).

The pioneering work by Hillman et al. istherefore important to us because itreinforces the likelihood that decisions aremade on the basis of beliefs, perceptions andintuitions … as most studies of crime fearhave shown (Williams and Dickinson, 1993). Itmust, therefore, be that the British parentsare not examining rational, objective, factsbut are basing decisions on other criteria.

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Alan G. Hallsworth, Colin Black, David Evans and Rodney TolleyAssessing traffic-generated“dread” risk


A pilot study on car usage for school trips

The long-term aim of this research is to targetthe parents of children attending primary/infant schools in Britain. Such schools willtypically cover the age range of 4-8 years:known to have little awareness of risks fromtraffic. It is logical to assume that parentswith cars will be most tempted to escort chil-dren of this age to school by car. In order togain test information from this generalcohort, 276 parents at a primary school inHampshire, England, were sent a question-naire on car usage for the trip to school. Over-all, 188 parents responded (68 per cent), andresults showed overwhelmingly that if a carwas available for the school trip then it wasused. This contrasts markedly with theresults for the older cohort in Germany ( acountry with higher per capita car owner-ship) where over 80 per cent of 9-year-oldswalked to school without an adult (Tranterand Whitelegg, 1994, p. 269).

When the parents were asked to explaintheir reasons, half said the child was tooyoung to walk alone and 28 per cent regardedthe roads as too busy for child safety. Whenasked why “other people” might use the carfor the trip to school, 20 per cent of respon-dents thought that those “other people” mightfeel that the child was safer in the car. Somewere genuinely fearful for the safety of theirchild despite evidence that (other than forrobbery) “strangers” are not responsible for ahigh proportion of violent crime. Clearly, thenotion of generally-accepted societal normsand of the expectation that other parents,other adults, even the police, are acting inloco parentis in public situations has goneinto steep decline in Britain. This is in con-trast to Germany where

The German language contains the wordsKinderundfreudlichkeit ... general unfriend-liness towards children ... an attitude ...which is observable. German children outalone are much more under the generalsupervision of adults on the street whomparents know can, and will ... act in locoparentis (Hillman et al., 1990, p. 84)

In contrast, we feel that British parents haveincreasingly retreated into isolation – per-haps haunted by the image of the child-murderer Myra Hindley. Popular media rep-resentations are that British streets are des-perately unsafe for children.

Societal norms are clearly very powerfuland yet are notoriously difficult to quantify.We suggest that outcomes at the nationalscale are likely to be a mixture of the elusiveconcept of “national characteristics” plussome influence from the built environment.

Equally, the British propensity to drive mayreflect a structural under-provision of price-competitive transport alternatives that areperceived as safe. Our focus is on the “copingmechanisms” that allow people mentally to “run away from” a threatening environ-ment.

Preparation of a measurement scale for coping with threat

What we can now present is some evidence onhow a scale for the measurement of “coping”mechanisms was devised – and the firstresults obtained. In the nuclear war work,much time was devoted to deriving a scale forthe measurement of psychological copingmechanisms. It was felt that six reactionsemerged in the face of the dread risk ofnuclear war and the same general notion of“coping” is used with the new traffic-related scale. It is not necessary to coveragain the formulation of the scale as this isoutlined in Hallsworth (1987). The six “mech-anisms”, many of them very familiar, arethese:1 “Helplessness” (or more commonly

“powerlessness”).2 The “wiser heads” defence. Abrogating

responsibility to a higher, wiser, authority– usually the government.

3 “Displacement”. Here the threat is thefault of a third party that is responsible for(or is deliberately overstating) the prob-lem.

4 Denial of risk (often, it is “habituation”rather than “denial”).

5 “Vulnerability”; this simply reflects, thosewho face up to the threat and really do fearit (strictly not coping).

6 “Activism”. We must be aware thatactivism is a coping mechanism and thereare many groups of “anti-road” protestersin Britain.

All the statements that made up the originalscale were constructed from phrases takenfrom newspapers, political statements orresearch findings (Grinspoon, 1964). Thefamiliarity of the phrases attested to theirrelevance as descriptors of attitudes towardsthe threat of nuclear war (see the version inHallsworth 1987, p. 291). It was felt that thescale had proved itself to be robust so, inorder to focus on key traffic-related worries,the phrases were simply modified to fit thethreat under study. The first version of theadapted scale is shown in the statisticalanalysis presented in Table I.

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A pilot study

A pilot survey was attempted using under-graduates in Geography at the University ofPortsmouth, England. We have no reason tosuppose that Geographers are more sensi-tized than others to such issues and weregard these preliminary findings as mostencouraging.

Results

A coping scale was, then, modified from thenuclear war scale previously used and“threat” questionnaires were presented toundergraduate geographers in a controlled,classroom situation. A total of 29 statementsor propositions on traffic-related topics werepresented as a semantic differential test. The

Table IPrincipal components loadings on “coping” scale

Component loadingsStatements 1 2 3 4 5 6

People spend too much time worrying about pollution 0.64It is morally acceptable to commit a small crime on a

construction site in order to protest against the greatercrime of environmental destruction 0.52

When getting children to school, nowhere is safer thanin the car

Protest is pointless, you will never get a government tochange its policy – unless it wants to 0.60

The government will act long before traffic problemsget out of hand 0.66

But for the so-called “greens”, society would not beworrying about pollution 0.52

You could die tomorrow – car accidents are just anothereveryday risk 0.51

On environmental issues, you just have to trust the governmentThe world has far more cars than is sensible 0.51I have never seen any local evidence of pollution caused

by cars –0.41There are so many cars now; you could be hurt in an

accident tomorrow 0.61The human race can overcome any obstacle to progress 0.56I am far too busy to worry about environmental issues 0.71The car is with us forever 0.52I feel a moral duty to preserve the planet from pollution

damage –0.54If I don’t use the roads – someone else will –0.63Cars are part of a good lifestyle 0.47I expect that at some future date this country will have

severe pollution problemsCars can be designed that will totally eliminate pollutionIt is not my responsibility to worry about the environment 0.61Car manufacturers produce new models and then they

attempt to sell them to the public – whether they arereally needed or not 0.62

Nothing I do makes any difference to the environment, oneway or another

People overestimate risks from traffic – plenty of peoplesurvive car accidents –0.34

“Greens” stir up all the so-called environmental campaigns 0.44Problems with car fumes are getting out of control 0.50If my job caused environmental problems, I’d rather be

unemployed than carry on causing pollution 0.56It is naïve to believe we could ever ban cars totally 0.63Our government should ensure that this country takes the

lead on environmental issues –0.59Catalytic converters will turn out to be just another

expensive gimmick foisted on car-buyers

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respondents were a roughly equal mix ofmales and females and were mostly aged 18-21. Overall, 300 responses were received.

As in the previous studies, the assumptionwas made that the six forms of coping mecha-nism should emerge as six separate or dis-tinct dimensions of the overall opinions heldby the cohort. Principal Components FactorAnalysis (PCA) was therefore again used.

Data analysis

The results obtained after varimax rotationof the six largest components are shown inTable I which indicates the actual questionsthat were used and also shows the strongest“loadings” on each of the six components.

Component oneComponent one is primarily a reflection of“denial”, which contains the dismissive ele-ments of “being too busy” to concern oneselfwith something. The component is not, how-ever, a clear-cut one since we cannot denysome links to statements that were includedto denote “helplessness” or “nothing I cando”. Perhaps, then, there are two forms ofpowerlessness. One is powerlessness in faceof a major dread, a threat against which noindividual action has any meaningful effect.However, as we have argued elsewhere(Hallsworth et al., 1995) some actions mightneed to be taken collectively. An individual istherefore equally powerless if he or she cansee what actions could be taken collectively -but does not believe that anyone in power isactually going to facilitate them. We gain asense of these two forms of helplessness inthis component and we will return to themagain later.

Component twoThis is vulnerability. As in the earlier workon nuclear war, this is the component forthose who believe that a catastrophic out-come could happen, and who are afraid.

Component threeWe earlier expressed the belief that the con-cept of the “threatening enemy” is more diffi-cult to articulate with environmental topics.We feel that what is under threat from theenvironmentalists is the car-based lifestyle –the freedoms to drive wherever one wants,whenever one wants.

Component fourThe variables loading strongly here areclearly the personal moral issues. There is noobvious expectation that personal moralvalues will be espoused by the powers of cen-tral government. The counterpoint is, of

course, pure self interest “If I don’t use theroads – someone else will”.

Component fiveThis is the higher authority or “wiser heads”defence. The respondent believes that some-one else has the responsibility and knowledgeto act. The individual is thus absolved frompersonal responsibility by virtue of havingelected someone else to take collective respon-sibility.

Component sixHelplessness is more prominent here than incomponent one though the cross-links to“denial” remain. In defining helplessness,this component relates more to componentfive than to issues of environmental pollutionper se. This form of helplessness is reallypolitical powerlessness in a country with noregional government at all and where localdemocracy is at the whim of an all-powerfulcentre.

Overall conclusionsOur feeling is that the results merit furtherdevelopment of the scale. Multiple interpreta-tions may be partly responsible for the emer-gence of notions of “powerlessness” on morethan one component and this can be modified.A further key point is that the issue of childsafety on the trip to school – a perceived“British” preoccupation – did not load signifi-cantly on any component. This is by nomeans a problem since the cohort completingthe questionnaire comprised undergradu-ates. Typically these are young people aged18-21 and very few of the respondents wouldhave any responsibility for children at all. Weknow that this variable will perform morestrongly with parents of small children. Over-all, we think that the “British problem” is ahybrid. The global concerns are quietlypushed to the back of one’s mind as “too awfulto think about”. However, instead of relyingon safety in numbers, the fear of the image ofchild-murderers is reinforcing thewithdrawal of children from the streets. Asthe herd immunity slips away, we seek refugein the car; leaving those on the streetsincreasingly isolated. We believe that thesame “coping mechanisms” that were used inthe face of the threat of nuclear war are beingutilized again: as shown in this pilot workwith British geography undergraduates. Itwill now be used with parents as the subjects.

ReferencesBlack, C. and Hallsworth, A.G. (1994), Traffic

around Primary Schools: What Is the Scale ofthe Problem?, SIRC Transport Group workingpaper, University of Portsmouth.

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Bradshaw, R. (1995), “Why do parents drive theirchildren to school?”, Traffic Engineering andControl, Vol. 36 No. 1, pp. 16-19.

Goodwin, P., Hallett, S., Kenny, F. and Stokes, G.(1992), Transport – The New Realism, Trans-port Studies Unit, Oxford.

Grinspoon, L. (1964), “The unacceptability ofdisquieting facts”, in Grosser, L. (Ed.), TheThreat of Impending Disaster, MIT Press,Harvard.

Hallsworth, A.G. (1987), “Some cross-nationaldifferences in the perception of the threat ofnuclear war: The Netherlands, France, WestGermany”, Tijdschrift voor Economische enSociale Geografie, Vol. 78 No. 4, pp. 290-6.

Hallsworth, A.G., Tolley, R. and Black, C. (1995),“Psycho-social dimensions of public quies-cence towards risks from traffic-generatedatmospheric pollution”, Journal of TransportGeography, Vol. 3 No. 1, pp. 39-51.

Hillman, M. (Ed.) (1993), Children, Transport andthe Quality of Life, PSI Press, London.

Hillman, M., Adams, J. and Whitelegg, J. (1990),One False Move, PSI Press, London.

Mirlees-Black, C. and Maung, N. (1994), “Fear ofcrime: findings from the 1992 British CrimeSurvey”, Home Research Findings 9, OfficeResearch and Statistics Department, London.

Seligman, M.E.P. (1975), Helplessness: on Depres-sion, Development and Death, Freeman, SanFrancisco, CA.

Slovic, P. (1987), “Perception of risk”, Science, Vol. 236, pp. 280-4.

Tolley, R. (Ed.) (1990), The Greening of UrbanTransport, Belhaven, London.

Tolley, R. (1995), “Developing safe routes toschool”, paper presented to PTRC SummerSchool on Transport Safety Issues, London,February.

Tranter, C. and Whitelegg, J. (1994), “Children’stravel behaviour in Canberra; car-dependentlifestyles in a low-density city”, Journal ofTransport Geography, Vol. 2, pp. 265-73.

Whitelegg, J. (1993), Transport for a SustainableFuture, Belhaven, London.

Williams, P. and Dickinson, J. (1993), “Fear ofcrime: read all about it”, British Journal ofCriminology, Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 33-56.

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The impact of improved ferry services on an islandeconomy: the case of Mull

Hugh M. BeggConsultant Economist and Town Planner, St Andrews Economic Consultants, UKBob HendersonGovernment Economist, Scottish Office Agriculture and Fisheries Department, UKPeter TylerFellow of St Catherine’s College, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UKColin WarnockConsultant Economist, Segal Quince Wicksteed Ltd, Cambridge, UK

This paper throws new lighton research undertaken bythe authors in collaborationwith colleagues at StAndrews Economic Consul-tants, PA Cambridge Eco-nomic Consultants, and theScottish Office IndustryDepartment. The authorsacknowledge the key contri-butions to the work pre-sented here of Tony Jacksonand Stuart McDowall.

Sets out the methodologydeveloped to establish theimpact of an enhanced ferryservice on the Island of Mullin Scotland. The work onwhich it is based was under-taken for the (former) Scot-tish Office Industry Depart-ment in co-operation withHighlands and Islands Enter-prise and CaledonianMacbrayne Ltd. Their princi-pal concern was the impact ofoperating and capital sub-sidies made available to CalMac as operator of servicesthroughout the Western Isles.The research improves under-standing of ways in whichtransport infrastructure canenhance the prospects forremote rural communitiesand the local economies onwhich they depend.

Introduction

This paper sets out the methodology devel-oped to establish the impact of an enhancedferry service on the Island of Mull in Scot-land. The work on which it is based wasundertaken as part of two major pieces ofresearch for the Scottish Office IndustryDepartment and Highlands and IslandsEnterprise in co-operation with CaledonianMacBrayne Ltd (CalMac). Their concern wasthe impact on island communities off theWest Coast of Scotland of the operating andcapital subsidies made available for the provi-sion of ferry services (Scottish Office, 1993a;1994). The research represents an attempt onthe part of the research team to help toimprove understanding of the impact ofenhanced transport infrastructure provisionon remote rural economies. The authorsbelieve this to be a relatively under-researched topic, which is surprising giventhe substantial volume of public expenditurebeing committed to such measures by bothnational governments and the EuropeanCommission.

Mull, with a land area of some 90,000hectares and a population of around 2,700 islocated off the west coast of Scotland at thesouthern end of the Firth of Lorne. Followingalmost a century of continuing decline thepast decade has seen a reversal of the trend asfewer younger people leave in search of workand growing numbers of returning Muil-leachans and others retire to the island. How-ever the resident population is still not suffi-cient to sustain a large service sector. Themanufacturing sector is also very small andis mainly based on food and drink and craft-based production. Thus Mull remains heavilydependent on its natural resources which arethe basis for the agriculture, fishing, andforestry sectors as well as the developingtourist industry which is the largest sector ofthe economy.

From earliest historical times the economyof Mull has been dependent on easy access by

sea. In 1880 the Caledonian railway wasextended to Oban and from there a ferry ser-vice, provided by David MacBrayne Ltd to theisland capital of Tobermory, linked Mull tothe economy of Central Scotland. The basis ofthe current network of services was laid withthe opening in 1964 of the Craignure pier inthe south east of Mull and the contemporane-ous setting up of a road haulage distributionservice to handle goods to and from the main-land.

A series of enhancements to the ferry ser-vices was undertaken by the operators Cale-donian MacBrayne Ltd over the period 1988 to1991. These are summarized in Table I. Theconsequences were substantial improve-ments in the road and ferry network. TheTobermoray/Kilchoan link, with only around3 per cent of the total traffic, is of local signifi-cance. More important was the upgrading ofthe Fishnish/Lochaline service whichaccounts for around 28 per cent of vehiclecarryings. However, of greatest significancefor traffic and potential economic impactswere the improvements to the Oban toCraignure crossings which account for over80 per cent of passengers and almost 70 percent of vehicle movements.

Research objectives and data sources

The objectives for the research reported onhere were to establish the changes in carry-ings to and from Mull attributable to the ferryservice enhancements; to estimate theimpacts of the changes in traffic flow on thelocal economy; and to consider the extent towhich the increased traffic flows and theirassociated expenditure were diverted fromother nearby areas.

CalMac provided information on the carry-ings of the ferry services (including capacity,frequency and volume of passengers/vehi-cles/freight moved) before and after theupgrading. These data were critical in theestimation of the impact of the improvementsto ferry services.

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Hugh M. Begg, Bob Henderson, Peter Tylerand Colin WarnockThe impact of improved ferryservices on an island economy: the case of Mull


In order to establish the impact of the neteffect of changes in the ferry carryings, it wasnecessary to undertake fieldwork relating toboth the demand and supply sides of the localeconomy. For the demand-side, a survey ofover 1,000 passengers on the ferry serviceallowed estimates to be made of the volumesof different types of visitors, their spendingprofiles and trip duration of their visits.Information on resident trips off-island wasalso acquired and was used to estimate dis-placement of activity from Mull as a result ofthe improvements in ferry services. Thepassenger survey also provided the informa-tion required to calculate the extent to whichthe benefits for Mull were at the expense ofother nearby local economies. On the supply-side, a survey of 30 local businesses providedindications of changes in economic activityin the local area.

The problem of the peak and modelling the effects of ferryservice enhancements

The peaking of seasonal, weekly and dailydemand, with considerable excess capacity atother times, is a common problem in trans-port economics. It is these peaks which deter-mine the need for an enhancement of supplywhich typically must be kept operationalduring periods of slack demand. Examinationof the trends in ferry carryings to and fromMull revealed an extreme example of “theproblem of the peak”. It was a consequence ofthe seasonal pattern of tourist traffic betweenMull (including Iona) and the Mainland, andthe concentration during the tourist season ofmost traffic on a limited number of crossingsbetween Oban and Craignure. Thus, thesummer season of 16 weeks accounts foraround 60 per cent of total passengers and

55 per cent of vehicles. These movements arefurther concentrated on the morning cross-ing from Oban and the evening return fromCraignure.

It was attractive for policy makers and theferry operators to try to smooth the pattern ofdemand through the use of differential pric-ing, aggressive marketing and related poli-cies. However experience demonstrated thatthe scope was limited in the face of the under-lying trends in consumer behaviour andnotably those of day-trippers and tourists.The only realistic alternative was an increasein ferry capacity to meet peak demand.

In modelling the effect of service enhance-ments we expected that the relief ofconstrained/discouraged demand would befollowed by an immediate increase in carry-ings: the “new facility” effect. In addition,longer term dynamic benefits would arisefrom the opening of the market to newsources of demand. This “enhanced capacity”effect would emerge as the routes accommo-dated their share of the growth in trafficwithin the wider ferry network as a whole.This would be determined by regional andnational trends in carryings. Finally, therewas the “island specific” effect: changes incarryings which emerge as a consequence ofdevelopments particular to the individuallocal economy.

Our approach to the estimation of the “newfacility” and “enhanced capacity” effects isillustrated in Figure 1. The continuous linerepresents the first step which was to producea summary of actual carryings. This demon-strated the impact of capacity constraints andthe result of their relaxation following theintroduction of improved services. The sec-ond step was to estimate what the growth incarryings would have been if there had beenno capacity constraint in the first place and

Table IEnhancements to ferry services between the mainland and Mull

Date ofFerry service/change Outcome change

Oban/CraignureReplacement of vessel with another with higher Increased carrying capacity for vehicles (from April 1988clearance for commercial vehicles, no 45 in summer, 55 in winter to 80 all year round),deadweight restrictions and greater capacity larger commercial vehicles can be carried and

greater total cargo deadweightLochaline/FishnishIncrease in size of vessel, drive through vessel Increased capacity for cars, from six to 12 cars in August

winter and six to 18 cars in summer; drive through 1986

Tobermory/KilchoanIntroductory of vehicle-carrying ferry following New vehicle route to Mull with six cars per sailing April 1991provision of slipways. Substantial increase in services

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carryings had been free to grow at the samerate as the rest of the Western Isles ferrynetwork (the WIN growth rate). For this pur-pose the actual carryings were projectedforward using the WIN growth rate. The third step was to estimate what the carryings would have been if the serviceenhancement had not taken place, (i.e. thecounterfactual situation). If appropriate pricing, promotional and rationing schemescould have been introduced to smooth thepattern of seasonal, weekly and daily demandthen growth might have continued usingexisting spare capacity at much the same rateas in the period just before the enhancementscame into operation. However, it seemedlikely these could not be introduced, and verylittle growth would be possible. We had tomake a judgment of where within these twoestimates of constrained growth the mostlikely path would lie. The final step was toidentify “one-off ” past and likely futurechanges in the local economy with significantimpacts on traffic generation. We concludedthat in this case the deleterious and beneficialimpacts balanced one another. However it isimportant that they could have had an impor-tant influence on the counterfactual situationone way or another.

Table II summarizes our estimates of theadditional carryings to and from Mull overthe period 1986 to 1992 attributable to ferryenhancements.

Measuring the impact of improved ferry services on the economy ofMull

The starting point for our estimation of theimpact of improved ferry services on theeconomy of Mull was to recall that producersand consumers on the island incur costs intheir day-to-day transactions which they

would not incur if they lived on the mainland.Other things being equal they experience ahigher cost of living. Having to use a ferryalso has an impact on those producers andconsumers who wish to engage in trade. Anobvious example (of particular importance inthe case of Mull) is the demand attributable totourists who wish to visit the island. Theimportant point is that changes in the characteristics of a ferry service, such asprice, frequency or capacity (all of which canbe translated into changes in cost) affect theisland economy in a number of ways. Froman economic point of view, they are allreducible to supply-side or demand-sideeffects on island output. The former aretransmitted through the cost curves of indi-vidual island producers. The latter are trans-mitted through the demands of purchasers,both on and off the island, for the output ofisland producers.

The analysis was advanced further bydividing economic activity into that relatingto export markets; and that which suppliesthe requirements of residents. Output of theformer category is a function of demand offthe island; and output of the latter is largelydetermined by the size and income of theresident population. It is crucial that theability of the island economy to achievegrowth in incomes is largely dependent onthe ability to export. In the Mull context thismeans the ability to attract tourists.

The direct effects of improving the qualityof a ferry service on the export activity oftourism are relatively easy to conceptualize.By increasing capacity and reducing delays,

Actual carryings

A: Effects of ferry improvements inrelieving constrained and discourageddemand (short-term “new facility”effect)

B: Effect of ferry improvement inpermitting route to share inunconstrained network growth (long-term “enhanced capacity” effect)

Carryings at WIN growthrateCarryings at constrainedgrowth rate

Constraintsappear

Serviceenhanced

Currentyear

Carryings

Figure 1.Modelling the effects of ferry service enhancements

Table IIEstimating the additional vehicle carryingsattributable to improved ferry services to Mull:1986-1992

Cars (000s) Coaches

a: 1986 vehicle carryings 76.0 716b: Additional carryings on the

assumption of constrainedgrowth 1987-92 +14.7 +535

c: Total constrained carryings1992 (a+b) 90.7 1,251

d: Actual carryings 1992 123.8 2,293e: Extra carryings attributable

to service improvements (d-c)of which: +33.1 +1,042

f: “Enhanced capacity effect”(additional carryings on theassumption of WIN growthrate 1987-92)a +24.2 +238

g: “New facility effect” (e-f) +8.9 +804

Note: a The gains from enhanced capacity will continuebeyond 1992, until capacity constraints re-emerge

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it makes the island more accessible totourists. Other things being equal, moretourists will be inclined to visit the island. Intechnical terms, the demand curve fortourists to the island is shifted outwards, asthe preferences of potential tourists change(in other words, for a given ferry price struc-ture, because these other factors havechanged, there would be a higher level ofdemand). This impact on tourist activity canbe expected to come through relativelyquickly, although the extent to which it leadsto additional output and employment effectson the island is dependent on the amount ofsurplus capacity, particularly in the labourforce, in the sectors concerned.

Within the context set by this analysis weestablished the expenditure of visitors fromsurveys of ferry users, interviewed at theirpoint of departure from Mull. This surveywas also used to derive figures for averageoccupancy rates for car-borne traffic (2.6), foraverage total spend per head on Mull andIona by day-visitors (£12) and for averagedaily spend per head by staying visitors (£34),as well as for the share of day and stay visi-tors in each category. We applied a conserva-tive estimate of 30 occupants per coach. Therelevant calculations are summarized inTable III. This provides data on total expendi-ture by the additional visitors attracted toMull as a result of improvements to the ferryservices.

Although the open nature of any islandeconomy (including that of Mull) means thatleakages are high, increased activity in an

export sector can be expected to generateadditional demand in domestic activitieswith further beneficial effects on output andemployment in the sectors concerned. Withthis in mind we applied the local tourismmultipliers obtained for Skye (ScottishOffice, 1993b) to the visitor expenditure estimates obtained from the passenger surveys. Although it has a rather larger population Skye provides a reasonable paral-lel to the Mull economy, both in terms of itsdependence on tourism, and in its accessibil-ity to the Scottish mainland.

These results suggest that ferry enhance-ments were responsible for injecting £3.5million in additional tourism expenditureinto the Mull economy in 1992. This gener-ated an additional £1 million in local incomeand supported 124 full-time equivalent (FTE)jobs. In addition, this extra activity on Mullsupported a further 30 FTE jobs elsewhere inthe Scottish economy. In order to place thiscontribution in the context, the total contri-bution of tourism to the Mull economy in 1992was calculated, by applying the same proce-dures. It is estimated that tourist expenditureon Mull and Iona amounted to £15.4 million in1992, generating £4.5 million in local income.This sustained a total of 544 FTE jobs in theMull economy, and a further 132 in the rest ofthe Scottish economy. Economic activities,including provision of accommodation,attractions, retailing and specialist manufac-turers, all gained from the increase intourism.

Table IIIEconomic impact of improvement to Mull ferry services

Cars Coaches

Additional CalMac traffic carryings(excluding residents) 31,444 1,042

Number of trips to Mull ( = 0.5 x carryings) 15,722 521Number of passengers carried (average 2.6 per car,

30 per coach) = additional visitors 40,877 15,630of which:Day visitors (27 per cent car, 98 per cent coach) 11,037 15,317Stay visitors (73 per cent car, 2 per cent coach) 29,840 313

Total expenditure day visitors (26,354 x £12 averagespend per head) £316,248

Total expenditure stay visitors (30,153 x £34.3average spend per head x average length of stay 3.1 for carusers, 2.8 for coach users) £3,202,947

Combined day and stay visitor expenditure £3,519,195Economic impact, applying Skye multipliers:Additional local income ( = £3,519,195 x 0.291) £1,204,086Additional full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in Mull economy 1992

(£28,374 expenditure per FTE job) 124Additional FTE jobs in Scottish economy 1992

(£22,838 expenditure per FTE job) 154

[ 12 ]



Even in an island economy such as Mullwith a limited primary and manufacturingbase, reductions in freight costs affected thecost of production for island producers. Giventhe type of the goods typically produced,island exporters were nearly always pricetakers or selling into niche markets. Thusreductions in production costs were notreflected in lower prices (for the former theprice is set by the market, and for the latterthere is a degree of monopoly power). Insteadit fed into higher profits and, on occasion,higher wages. Higher profits were the morelikely outcome and the increased viability ofisland businesses which resulted helped leadto increased output, employment and invest-ment.

Displacement effects

We had established that changes in the qual-ity of ferry services to Mull resulted in addi-tional numbers of visitors to the island overand above the volume which would have vis-ited if no improvements in the ferry serviceshad taken place. As a result the local economybenefited from additional expenditure whichwould not otherwise have occurred. However,we were concerned to establish whether thishad been at the expense of other areas, i.e.whether the additional activity had beendisplaced from other parts of Scotland.

The displacement effect was considered atdifferent spatial levels: the impact on visitorsspending in Scotland as a whole, the High-lands and Islands and in specific destinationswithin them. In order to provide an indica-tion of the potential displacement effectswithin Scotland, visitors were asked whetherthey would have gone elsewhere if their triphad been frustrated by being unable to crossto Mull as a result of the constraints on the

provision of ferry services. The impact of thedisplacement effects at these different spatiallevels can be estimated by applying the find-ings to the information set out in Table IIIwhich relates to the amount of additionalexpenditure and jobs generated on Mull as aresult of the ferry enhancements. The resultsare set out in Table IV.

On the other hand we recognized that theferry enhancements may have involved somedisplacement of activity from Mull. Improvedaccess to the island for tourists is accompa-nied by easier access to the mainland forisland residents. This can be expected toencourage some residents to make more fre-quent visits to the mainland for shopping orrecreational activities and so reduce the pro-portion of household incomes spent on theisland. By reducing remoteness, moreislanders may be persuaded to remain whomight otherwise have emigrated. Addition-ally, incomers could be attracted to the island.We could not make any detailed forecast ofthese outcomes. However, in our view this“increased population” effect could, in thelonger term, more than offset the “displacedexpenditure” effect.

Concluding remarks

The methodology set out in this brief paperwas devised to deal with a specific set of prob-lems and our results are, of course, particularto the circumstances under consideration.However our case study required us toaddress a number of general issues to befound wherever ferry improvements for thebenefit of island economies are under consid-eration. These include: the peaking ofdemand with substantial excess capacity atother periods; modelling the traffic move-ments consequent on the enhancement;establishing the impact on the local economy;and, finally, the issues raised by displacementof traffic and economic activity. The approachwhich we adopted dealt effectively with theseand related issues. We recommend its appli-cation to other similar situations.

ReferencesScottish Office (1993a), Evaluation of the Impact of

Ferry Subsidies, ESU Research Paper No. 32,Scottish Office Industry Department, Edin-burgh.

Scottish Office (1993b), Scottish Tourism Multi-plier Study, ESU Research Paper No. 31, Scot-tish Office Industry Department, Edinburgh.

Scottish Office (1994), The Impact of ImprovedFerry Services on Local EconomicDevelopment, ESU Research Paper No. 34,Scottish Office Industry Department, Edinburgh.

Table IVPotential displacement effects of improvement to Mull ferry services

Visitor spending

(£) FTE jobs

Spending on Mull associated with ferry service improvements 3,519,195 124

Non-displacing activity (33.6 per cent) 1,182,450 42Potentially displacing activity (66.4 per cent)

of which: 2,336,745 82Potential displacement from other Scottish islands 1,280,536 45Potential displacement from the Western Highlands

(excluding other Scottish Islands) 750,095 26Potential displacement from the rest of Scotland

(excluding other Scottish Islands and theWestern Highlands) 306,114 11

[ 13 ]



A path out of the wilderness?

Angus W. WitherbyLecturer in Transport Planning, Department of Geography and Planning, University of New England, New South Wales, Australia

The discipline of transportplanning is in conceptualdisarray, yet the techniquesand models of yesteryearcontinue to be applied.Argues that we need a newconceptual framework fordeciding what methods toapply and how to apply themto produce liveable cities.Concludes that eco-relationalthinking may offer a usefulframework.

Introduction

This paper deals with the activity of trans-port planning. Transport planning is a spe-cialized subset of the more general activity ofurban and regional planning. However, whilethe land use side of urban and regional plan-ning has struggled, somewhat introspectively,with theories of planning, transport planninghas paid significantly more attention to theo-ries in planning. In large part this is a naturalconsequence of the discipline’s strong inter-section with engineering. The rationalist,objective techniques that underlie the activ-ity of transport planning as we have seen itdevelop historically since the 1960s, are to dowith the city as a machine. The implication isthat it can be modelled, predicted, manipu-lated. It is also this intersection with engi-neering which gave transport planning asignificantly more durable and clearlydefined core of technique when compared toits cousin discipline, land use planning.

TechniqueYet clearly we must face the reality that theobjective/rational body of technique devel-oped over the last 30 years has and is failingus. Our cities are not improving in liveabilityas far as transport is concerned. This isdespite an ever increasing plethora of tech-niques developed to analyse, predict andultimately plan the transport networks of thecity. In data collection we have householdtravel behaviour surveys, origin/destinationstudies, traffic surveys and the like; indemand analysis we have econometric mod-els, heuristic models, simulation models andscenario development; in supply analysis wehave impact models and cost models; in deci-sion making we have approaches such as therational actor, satisficing, incrementalism,organizational process, political bargaining,decision-orientated planning process andmore (Meyer and Miller, 1984). All this isbefore we even begin to deal with manage-ment techniques such as Transport DemandManagement (Ewing, 1993).

Conceptual disarrayDimitriou (1992) summed up the situationwell when he described transport planning as

being in “conceptual disarray”. While con-ceptual disarray as a phenomenon could notbe considered to have entered transport plan-ning overnight, Dimitriou dates its domi-nance from the mid-1970s. In fact, the seedswere sown much earlier.

Buchanan’s ground-breaking 1963 reportclearly identified the essential tension facedby the discipline of transport planning incoming to grips with the ever-expanding useof the private motor vehicle. While most com-mentators, and in fact governments, focussedtheir attention on one aspect of Buchanan’sthesis – that urban environments would needto be radically transformed to cope with thecar – less attention was paid to the other sideof his thesis. Buchanan clearly acknowledgedthat limiting demand for the motor vehiclewould be essential if we were to maintain theessential form and structure of urban areasas they had existed up to that time.

We are now in 1996. A total of 20 years haveelapsed since the start of the period that Dim-itriou labelled conceptual disarray. Yet in thattime we have not seen any fundamental newparadigm for the discipline of transport plan-ning that could help us re-focus the disci-pline’s undoubted strengths on tackling thetransport problems of urban areas in a man-ner that improves the liveability of the city.Instead, we have seen the evolution of a pas-tiche of techniques, some rooted in the behav-ioural, some in traffic modelling, some inmodels of land use and transport interaction.Yet, returning to an earlier thesis, ourapproaches still attempt to treat the city as amachine. Even the behavioural approaches,which have arisen out of a clear recognitionof the failure of transport planning to ade-quately predict results when focusing merelyon vehicles, tends to fall into the determinis-tic trap.

At its worst, the current situation can anddoes lead to feelings of entrapment and des-peration on the part of the transport planningprofessional. We endlessly, almost mindlessly,continue to repeat the use of techniques thatwe know are flawed and which we suspect arenot tackling the heart of our problem. Yetwithout the development of a coherent frameof reference within which to place those

[ 14 ]

Angus W. WitherbyA path out of the wilderness?


techniques, our planning processes are morefundamentally flawed than they need be.

A new breed?Although resident activism has been a fea-ture of transport planning debates for severaldecades, that activism has largely concerneditself with what we now describe as the“nimby” syndrome – not in my backyard. Inother words, the activism has not opposed theconcept of (for example) a new freeway –instead it has tended to oppose the location asaffecting them.

Speaking from the Australian perspective,the first major signs of the shift in commu-nity activism came in Brisbane in the 1980s.A community group called Citizens AgainstRoute 20 (CART) was formed in response to aproposal to widen an existing “rat run” into amajor arterial route. Instead of lobbying tohave the route put somewhere else, the groupfocussed its attention on the whole process oftransport planning in the city of Brisbane,and, perforce, the role of the motor vehicle insociety. The group, drawing extensively onEuropean experience, prepared a small vol-ume entitled Traffic Calming (CART, 1989).

While it is certainly true that mainstreamtransport planning authors such as Brindlepaid, and continue to pay, significant atten-tion to the local area aspects of car/peopleinteraction, the CART publication attempted,somewhat falteringly, to place local needs inthe big picture. It was an attempt, in the con-text of Arnstein’s (1969) ladder of public par-ticipation, to develop genuine partnershipbetween the community and the planners.

A founder of CART, David Engwicht, devel-oped the thesis in his book Towards an Eco-city – Calming the Traffic (1992). It was in thatbook that he used the term “eco-relationalthinking”.

Eco-relational thinking

Engwicht’s “eco relational thinking” is usedto cover a variety of issues surrounding theplanning activity in general, the role of spe-cialist, and more particularly applying thesethings to the examination of transport plan-ning. At its core, eco-relational thinking isnot a technique nor a philosophy. Instead itrepresents more of an attitude.

A change of attitude?Is the answer to transport planning’s currentconceptual problems as simple as a change ofattitude? The answer, as with all such ques-tions, is both yes and no. On the “yes” side, itis difficult to dispute Engwicht’s thesis that,if society as a whole and transport planners

in particular changed their attitude to therole of the motor car in society, then we couldcertainly improve the liveability of our cities.The “no” part of the question comes down tothe difficulty and complexities (not to men-tion some interesting moral questions)involved in changing the attitudes of anentire society.

Yet Engwicht provides examples of aspectsof living where this has been done. He quotesthe example of smoking (Cunningham et al.,1994). Until the 1980s the dominant paradigmon smoking was that it was an activity ofunconstrained free choice by adults. Yet asthe health implications of smoking becamemore widely known, especially those of pas-sive smoking, governments through a combi-nation of regulation and education, backed bya number of other medical and communitygroups and organizations, achieved a societalshift in views on smoking. The odd personout in Australia today, in any particulargroup of people, is likely to be the one withthe cigarette – not those without.

Engwicht sees the possibility of achieving asimilar shift in public attitude to the use ofthe motor vehicle. It almost goes withoutsaying that he sees such a shift in attitude asa necessary precursor to transport planninggaining the ability to improve substantiallythe liveability of our cities. Engwicht is notalone in perceiving these shifts. Authors suchas Nijkamp and Reichman (1987) identifyclear shifts away from satisfying endlessgrowth in car-based mobility, albeit from aEuropean perspective.

In many respects, the attitudinal changethat Engwicht is seeking is one that is con-trary to the prevailing ethos of our time – oneof increasing privatization and individualiza-tion – which some consider to be leading tothe fragmentation of our culture (Cunning-ham, 1996). It is also contrary to the “reduc-tionist thinking” identified by Giannako-dakis (1994) as underpinning our currentapproach to transport planning. Can wereturn, asks Cunningham (1996), to the city asthe highest pinnacle of human achievementwhere the public and cultural aspects ofhuman nature can make their highest contri-bution to human quality of life?

The nature of the cityUltimately the city is all about humanexchange – not just of goods and money, but ofthoughts, ideals, emotions, indeed all facets ofhuman behaviour. In Aristotlean terms, thecity is the fundamental basis of “the goodlife”. By focussing on transport as an end initself, we have lost sight of the fact that it ismerely a means to the end of exchange. Wehave, unfortunately, assumed that mobility

[ 15 ]



equals exchange opportunity. Therefore, allwe have to do is enhance societal mobility,primarily through the private car, and every-body will have a happy and fulfilling life.

The big pictureIt is the “big picture” of the city and its pur-pose which lies at the heart of the concept ofeco-relational thinking – to examine the cityholistically in the context of the complex webof inter-relationships that give it its form andfunction. It is important, however, not toconfuse holistic thinking with only thinkingabout the city at a macro scale. Holistic think-ing can also be applied at a variety of scaleswhen examining the city from metropolitanright down to neighbourhood, street or evenhousehold scales (Giannakodakis, 1994). Wesee glimmers of holistic thinking in thebehavioural approaches to transport analysisthat have been under development for thepast decade or so. Techniques such as thehousehold and travel survey (HATS) clearlyattempt to get a handle on the complex inter-relationships of travel and behaviour of ahousehold; Fisk (1986) attempts to deal holis-tically with both supply and demand; Florianet al.’s (1988) situation planning paradigmclearly recognizes the importance of a broadperspective in dealing with particular trans-port problems, to quote just a few.

Nevertheless, while these techniques aregroping forward towards the eco-relationalconcept, they miss one vital point. They arestill focussed on transport the activity. Theproblem with this approach is that transportis a derived demand. With virtually no excep-tions, transport activity is undertaken as anenabling activity to allow people to do some-thing else. It is that “something else” thatshould be the real focus of the planner’s con-cern.

The role of the professional Transport planners are mobility specialists.This is what we are good at. We are not, how-ever, as good at dealing with the question ofwhy the mobility is necessary, the other sideof the mobility coin: accessibility. Theincrease in mobility in our society blocks,and continues to block, accessibility to manybasic services and functions for many people(Manning, 1978). How could this problemoccur? Part of the answer lies in professional-ism.

Professionalism is increasingly about spe-cialization. No one individual, for instance,can grasp even the detail of a single special-ization in our society. Looking to our ownfield of transport planning, a thorough graspof even the major techniques currently usedin the discipline would be beyond all but a

few. Engwicht sees the present specializationof the professions as symptomatic, and anevolution, of the compartmentalization ofthinking that has developed in western soci-ety throughout the last several hundredyears. Engwicht maintains that in the rise ofthe scientific method and its pervasion of allaspects of our society, we have lost “the bigpicture”.

The role of the generalistEngwight does not advocate abolition of thespecialist. Rather, he sees the role of the spe-cialist as informing the generalist. But who isthe generalist? It has been stated that everyperson is an expert – even if it is only on theirown backyard. By the same token, every per-son is, at least potentially, a generalist. Yet inlooking at the role of the generalist, we needto go beyond the mere accumulation of gen-eral knowledge that the average individualcollects during the course of their life abouttheir society and how it works. At the otherend of the spectrum, we do not need a modernversion (male or female) of “renaissanceman”. Instead, we need people with the skillsto integrate and translate. The “professionalgeneralist”, as such a person might betermed, has the role of bringing the input ofspecialists to bear on the particular problemof liveability in cities.

This, in Engwight’s conception, can only bedone by such a person not only immersingthemselves in the problem from an intellec-tual sense, but also by engaging themselves inliving with and in the problem. Thus theprofessional generalist acts as the bridge forthe intersection of the hopes, desires, fearsand aspirations of communities within thecity, and the skills, expertise and experienceof specialists who have some of the tools toaddress those problems.

This approach can be viewed along with thestrategic planning and performance systemsframework of Giannakodakis (1994), an exam-ple of which is shown in Figure 1. Yet despitethe different perspectives from which thesetwo authors view the problem, their viewsare complementary rather than divergent.Immersion in a problem is necessary, buthumans are structure-needing beings whoneed frameworks on which to hang the prod-uct of their work.

The Engwicht approach also intersectsneatly with the conceptual framework devel-oped by Brindle and others, known as theDarwin Matrix (Table I). This matrixattempts to explore the range of measuresavailable to implement what is now known astraffic calming. It probably also has widerapplication and could be used to encapsulatethe major aspects of transport planning. In

[ 16 ]



many respects it represents a simpler (reduc-tionist?) view of Giannakodakis’s (1994)system model. Effectively what Engwicht issuggesting, is that transport planning needsto pay much more attention to social/culturalmeasures (the “ethos” of what we are doing)and use this to inform the “technique” of theprofession. Giannakodakis attempts to pro-vide a framework that could be used for sys-tematic action within the matrix.

Implementation

It is all very well to talk about attitudinalchange, but how in practice can we translatethis changed attitude into practical planningoutcomes? This will be addressed through theexamination of two small-scale case studies.The first of these attempted to implement eco-relational principles as part of a broad-basedstrategic planning effort. The second was a

Table IThe Darwin Matrix

Scope of measure Type of measure

Physical/environmental (“technique”) Social cultural (“ethos”)(includes all physical and management (includes both deliberate attempts tomeasures to control level, route and change community attitudes and other speed of traffic) societal changes that may not be directly

related to traffic matters and that may not be either deliberate or voluntary)

Local Level I traffic calming techniques Level I social change (e.g. neighbourhood(street or neighbourhood) (e.g. speed control devices; “green speed watch; attitudinal change)

street”)

Intermediate Level II traffic calming techniques Level II social change (e.g. voluntary (zone, traffic corridor, (e.g. sub-arterial traffic management behaviour/mode choice change)regional road) (SATM) parking policies, pedestrianized

shopping areas)

City-wide Level III traffic calming techniques Level III social change (e.g. cultural (e.g. urban form manipulation, total change, loss of choice, technologicalsystem measures/policies) change)

Source: Adapted from WSROC, 1993, p. A7

1. Global ecological system supporting humankind

2.1 National environmentand socio-cultural systemsustaining an economy –ESD principles

3.2 Other regionalenvironments(cities/states) linked byair, sea, land transport

4.2 Urban living systemwith a spatial/physicaland socio-cultural form

4.3 Other regionaltransport modes, e.g.rail/tram infrastructure

5.1 Arterial road networkaccessibility needs –(human) between people,goods and services

7.1 Physical roadspace/capacity

3.1 Regional environment(city/town) with multi-modaltransport system

4.1 Regional roadtransport system –physical, dynamic andliving

Change access/mobility LATM

5.2 Local roadnetwork (highproperty access/low mobility)

Inter-regionaltransport links

Accessibility

Change urban form

Modal shift

Accessibility

Source: Giannakodakis (1994, p. 11)

6.1 Trafficengineeringmobility needsof vehicles

Figure 1A systems entity model of the road transport system

[ 17 ]



“traditional” traffic study designed toaddress the long-term structural needs of agrowing area. Both of the case studies had astheir output clear recommendations regard-ing the development of transport infrastruc-ture to serve the needs of the area. Theserecommendations were, however, arrived atby completely different routes.

The Armidale/Dumaresq Strategic Plan(after Witherby, 1994)The Armidale/Dumaresq Strategic Planarose out of a perceived need to provide forurban growth around the small rural city ofArmidale, NSW. Armidale is an inland citywith a population catchment of around 30,000people. There was a perceived shortage ofresidential land to meet the needs of the city,and concern was being expressed about thesocial, environmental and transport implica-tions of growth. Although commencing as asomewhat traditional land use planning exer-cise, the strategy soon evolved into a broaderstrategic consideration of the region’s future.In particular, it became clear that the Armi-dale/Dumaresq community had and wascapable of articulating a range of viewsregarding its vision of the region’s future.Through a series of consultation processessimilar to those espoused by Engwicht, thestrategy was able to not only gather the viewsof the community, but also, with the commu-nity, develop them into an over-arching visionwithin which the majority of the commu-nity’s aspirations could be pursued. Thevision emerging was clearly a “quality of life”vision. Integral to this vision was seen theneed to come to grips with the implications ofthe motor vehicle on quality of life.

It must be stated at the outset that in con-ventional transport planning terms, Armi-dale does not have a traffic problem. Never-theless, it was clearly seen that in terms ofimproving the quality of urban space withinthe city, the balance between the car andother road uses needed to be redressed. Theoutcome of the process was a clear set of rec-ommendations regarding transport in thecity. It should be noted that these were devel-oped in the clear (and deliberate) absence ofthe use of traditional traffic modelling orforecasting tools. Those conclusions, togetherwith their place in the Darwin Matrix were(Witherby, 1994, p. 323):1 Pedestrianize the central business district

(CBD) completely, while ensuring ade-quate peripheral parking, disabled caraccess and alternative “clean” transportfrom the peripheral parking areas throughthe CBD area (local scope, level I, II and toan extent III physical/environmental

changes, level I and II social/culturalchange).

2 Consider the implementation of a localgovernment-based “community serviceobligation” payment to the local bus opera-tor to assist their proactive efforts toimprove mode split towards public trans-port (city-wide scope, level III physical/environmental changes, level II social/cul-tural change).

3 Develop a transport plan for the Universityof New England to reduce car dependenceby people travelling to this single largestemployment node in the city. Aspects suchas improved public transport, car pooling,reducing parking availability on campusand further encouragement and provisionof facilities for cycling are under review(intermediate scope, level I and II physi-cal/environmental changes, level I and IIsocial/cultural change).

4 Programme, over a 20- to 30-year period,the reconstruction of the complete roadsystem of city of Armidale under LocalArea Traffic Management principles. Thisreconstruction would occur as and whenroads fell due for reconstruction in thenormal course of events and would pro-duce design speeds of 40 kph on the “arter-ial” and collector roads and design speedsof 20 kph on residential access streets (city-wide scope, level I, II and III physical/envi-ronmental changes, level I, II and to anextent III social/cultural change).

5 Maintain the current land use pattern ofthe concentrated CBD core and encouragefurther development in medium densityhousing in and near the CBD area. In addi-tion develop measures that assist theretention of the corner store networkthroughout the city (city-wide scope, levelIII physical/environmental change, level IIand III social/cultural change).

6 All new subdivision areas be constructedon integrated, multi-mode principles fromday one with those areas more remotefrom the city being connected by deniedassess collectors as well as cycling, walk-ing and public transport routes (localscope, level I physical/environmentalchange, level I social/cultural change).

Probably the key aspect of the Armidale casestudy is that it deals with the problem ofbringing about physical and social changethrough the simultaneous application ofchanges on both fronts in a variety of ways. Itseeks not revolution, but evolution.

Coffs HarbourThe Coffs Harbour exercise was somewhatdifferent. Coffs Harbour is a rapidly growing

[ 18 ]



coastal NSW town with a regional populationof approximately 50,000 people. It is also apopular tourist destination. The high growthrate, coupled with previous under-investmentin transport infrastructure, has produced asituation where there is a perceived need forsubstantial upgrading and expansion of theroad network. In traditional transport plan-ning fashion, a traffic study was commis-sioned from a mainstream transport engi-neering firm. Setting aside some quibbleswith the methodology, it is useful to focus onthe key assumptions underlying the study. Ofmajor importance were the linear projectionof traffic growth as population and economicactivity rise, and the assumption of increasedtrip-making propensity by the residents ofthe area. Naturally enough, the study recom-mended widening of the main north-southhighway through the region and the develop-ment of a “traffic relief route” to bypass themajor commercial centre.

Many residents in the Coffs Harbour areachallenge the need to upgrade substantiallyroad infrastructure. They point to the signifi-cant severance and traffic noise and safetyimplications of constructing a traffic reliefroute along the proposed corridor, whichbisects a major tourist residential area. Theynote that during the peak holiday period,Coffs Harbour (which is a significant resortdestination) appears to function quite ade-quately with nearly a doubling of its popula-tion.

These resident views suggest that the styleof exercise carried out in Armidale may beappropriate. Perhaps an attempt needs to bemade to place transport within its context asan enabler of the various activities of the city,and to address seriously the degree to whichmobility enhancement via the private carwill further that function. Certainly it is clearto many “non-experts” in Coffs Harbour thattraditional transport planning has failedthem.

Conclusions

While the above outcomes demonstrate thatEngwicht’s principles are capable of opera-tion and appear to have benefit when appliedon a small scale, the question is still open asto whether these principles can be applied atthe metropolitan level. For example, therehas been increasing discussion about whatare becoming known as “urban villages” as a“solution” to urban liveability. Cunninghamet al. (1994) proposed a framework withinwhich substantial shifts in the need formobility could be achieved, thereby reducingcar dependence, yet maintaining a good level

of access to “exchange opportunities”. Asimilar framework has been proposed byNewman and Kenworthy (1992) with theirtransit oriented urban villages.

Yet intrinsic within the viability of theseframeworks is the need to modify substan-tially mobility patterns within the city. Sim-ply providing local opportunities for shop-ping, work and leisure may not necessarilyimpact on mobility – people with access toprivate cars will freely travel out of theirurban village unless attitudes to, and restric-tions on travel change significantly (Man-ning, 1978). Another difficulty is that peopleappear to have a travel time “budget” whichthey are willing to use in whatever way tech-nology will let them and they can afford. Agood example is the average journey to worktime, which has not varied significantly inSydney in the last century. A final (and moresignificant) problem is that we are not seeingevidence of these types of approaches beingdeveloped from the “ground up” using Eng-wicht’s principles of understanding of thecity and full partnership with its people.Neither can we be confident that they are“solutions” that really operate within the fullscope of Giannakodakis’s systems framework.

The conclusions that we can draw from thisare that planning solely at the local scale,while complex enough, is unlikely to solvemetropolitan scale problems unless quitesubstantial shifts in attitude occur at a soci-etal, rather than just a community level. Eventhen, and even at the local level, changetowards the bottom right of the DarwinMatrix is more likely to occur by evolutionrather than revolution (Witherby, 1994). It isalso clear that we cannot solely address theproblems of the city at the macro scale. If wedo (and as we have), the hopes, fears, aspira-tions and concerns of local communities areunlikely to be truly addressed.

This is not to say that substantial improve-ment to the liveability of our major citiescannot be achieved. There is much that canbe done and is being done to address majorproblems and issues. Many of these are“whole city” strategic initiatives; many ofthese are local initiatives. The two need to begiven equal recognition, and the impacts ofone on the other addressed in true partner-ship with the communities affected. Thereare some signs that we are now entering aperiod of relative stability after the rapidchange of the post-war era (Deen, 1984). Thiswill assist in providing an environment morecondusive to the planning task, provided wehave an appropriate frame of reference forthat task.

What is also becoming apparent is that,even with changed attitudes, and a more

[ 19 ]



stable framework, these problems cannot besolved by planners (whether transport orland use) alone. Changing the framework,and our attitudes to the task, of our profes-sion is, however, an essential start, and onewhich can give us an effective direction forthe future.

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WSROC (1993), Towards Traffic Calming: A Manual of Implemented Experience, Reportno. CR 126, Federal Office of Road Safety andthe Western Sydney Regional Organisation ofCouncils, Canberra.

[ 20 ]



Placebo or panacea? Rural transport corridors: somesocial and environmental issues

Amanda Root, William J. FieldingTransport Researchers, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, UK

Travel poverty, defined as“inadequate access to choicein relation to travel”, is facedby those who cannot travel asmuch as they would like, orwho have inadequate localamenities, reducing optionsabout travel. The context forthis study is increasing ruralcar use and by policies whichdirectly or indirectly promoteit, damaging the quality of lifeand the environment andlessening the safety of publicspace. Presents evidencefrom a study of two ruralvillages indicating that thedevelopment of public trans-port corridors might, in somecircumstances and to someextent, meet sustainability(i.e. environmental, equityand participation) objectives.Also discusses possible limitsto the effectiveness andpotential disadvantages ofdeveloping rural public trans-port corridors. Raises theparticular effectiveness of railcorridors in meeting environ-mental objectives.

Rural travel and its problems

Increases in miles travelled per capita is aworldwide trend, but one that is more pro-nounced in developed countries. Between1989-93 there was a 9 per cent growth in dis-tance travelled in Oxfordshire (OxfordshireCounty Council, 1994). The County exempli-fies the upward travel trends which are foundin Europe and across the developed world(Greene and Santini, 1993).

In Europe, there are clear correlationsbetween income and travel, with a trend thatincreased affluence contributes to greaterdemand for travel (Stanner and Bourdeau,1995). Currently, there are also spatial differ-ences in UK travel demand. Rural dwellerstravel further in total than urban residents(Table I). Rural people are travelling 49 percent further than their urban counterparts,70 per cent further as car drivers and 66 percent more in cars as drivers and passengers.Rural people are also less likely to use publictransport or walk than urban residents. Thisis ironic when it is considered that the stereo-type of life in the countryside is that it is“settled” and “rooted” and not as mobile asurban life.

Car travel is exceeding other modes oftransport by a ratio of almost 8:1 in ruralareas (Table I), but this was not always thecase. It has been argued that the UK policy ofclosing railways in the 1960s and supplying asubstitute bus (“bustition”) contributed tothe growth in private car ownership:

The so-called “bustitution” policy hasproved wholly ill-founded, for where therailways had proved more than capable ofcompeting with the private car, buses hadfailed. Indeed railways closures had actuallyforced many people to buy their own trans-port, precipitating the near collapse of ruralpublic transport (Henshaw, 1994).

The loss of rural public transport, referred toearlier, has been exacerbated by the 1985Transport Act, which deregulated buses,enabling many bus companies to choose moreprofitable, often urban, routes and to with-draw more remote or less well-used ruralservices.

The rise in the use of private cars has con-tributed to the loss of local facilities,

particularly in rural areas. Cars allow accessto non-local amenities for those with theirown transport, but have facilitated a spate ofcentralization of public and private sectorfacilities. Peripatetic health services, whichwere commonplace in small (<1,000) Oxford-shire villages until the 1960s, are now a rarity.It would appear that rural travel poverty,defined as inadequate choice in relation totravel, has grown as local facilities and publictransport have declined.

Those without access to cars, are frequentlytravel poor, especially in remote rural areas,where public transport and local facilities areoften negligible. Of households in rural Eng-land and Wales, 21 per cent do not own a car(ACRE, 1994). It should also be noted that amuch larger percentage of people do not haveaccess to a car during the day, often becausethe main household car is being used by awage earner, or they do not have a drivinglicence or they are too young or disabled todrive. In rural areas a large number of house-holds (estimated to be approximately 11 percent of the rural population) run a car and areunable to afford “necessities” as aconsequence.

There are also a large number of disadvan-tages of increasing reliance on the privatecar. As many authors have described, climatechange and an increase of morbidity andmortality are attributable to vehicle emis-sions. Transport accounts for approximately30 per cent of personal energy use and theproportion is increasing.

Transport corridors

Public transport corridors are defined asparticular routes along which there is a con-centration of bus, train or other forms ofpublic transport. In this study, the publictransport corridor included buses and trains.They could be based on guided buses, commu-nity buses, new railway lines, trams or evencycle lanes.

Developing public transport corridorswould involve allowing more housing or lightindustrial development at the “nodes” orpublic transport corridors and so, potentially,providing larger numbers of passengers,

[ 21 ]

Amanda Root and William J. FieldingPlacebo or panacea? Rural transport corridors:some social and environmental issues


which might generate more frequent ser-vices, easier and faster modal changes andgreater numbers of destinations.

Some transport corridors have been suc-cessfully developed. Copenhagen, for exam-ple, has fostered a “hand print” shape inwhich the “fingers” are transport corridors.The European Union is also developing aTrans-European Network (TENs) which isintended to provide public transport and roadcorridors, mainly for inter-urban freightjourneys. It was our intention to investigatethe usefulness of rural public transportcorridors for passengers, on a much smallerscale.

Methodology

Two villages in South Oxfordshire (the outerSouth East region of the UK) were surveyedin the summer of 1995. Information was

gathered from Chalgrove, which has limitedbus services; and Cholsey, which has good busand train services (Figure 1).

A total of 279 people completed question-naires, which included a travel diary of sin-gle day journeys. A total of 1,692 individualjourneys were analysed. All the travel diarieshave been put onto a database: 279 peoplefilled in travel diaries and questionnaires.Information was gathered fairly evenly fromboth villages: from Chalgrove 145 people (52per cent of the sample), and from Cholsey 134people (48 per cent of the sample) returnedand completed questionnaires (see Table II).

The survey methodology involved a team ofinterviewers visiting households identifiedby the Census, and sometimes by local con-tacts, as likely to have residents in the 16-29age group. If the household did contain a 16-29year old and if those concerned were willing,each person was left a form which consistedof a day’s travel diary and a questionnaire.

The questionnaire methodology was sup-plemented by various focus group interviewsand unstructured interviews. In a culturalanalysis it is possible to find “structures offeeling” or “cultural forms” that often play amore important and permanent part of every-day life than any particular set of opinions orviews. It is hoped that the brief introductionof cultural analysis helps to lose some of thedifficulties inherent in attitudinal surveyswhere answers may appear inconsistent orsuperficial (often owing to the context-depen-dence of the questions remainingunanalysed).

A total of 76 16-29 year olds were interviewedin groups in Oxfordshire. No statistical datawere collected, but the interviews wererecorded and have been transcribed. One ofthese interviews is quoted in this article.

Background information about thevillages

Cholsey and Chalgrove were chosen becausethey are similar in size and demographicprofile. Cholsey is approximately one-fifthlarger than Chalgrove (the villages are 2,832and 3,428 respectively). No two villages areidentical, but there are strong similarities

2

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KeyCholseyChalgrove

Frequency/hour

Note: Frequency of train services are variablethroughout the day

Figure 1Public transport in Chalgrove and Cholsey

Table IISample by age group

AgeVillage Under 12 12-15 16-29 30-59 60+ Total

Chalgrovea 1 7 50 82 3 143Cholsey 4 20 38 69 3 134Note: a Two missing cases from Chalgrove

Table IAverage number of miles per person per year bymode of transportType of settlement Rural Urban

Car driver 4,890 2,881Car passenger 3,046 1,878Other private 355 218Rail 311 429Local bus 194 285Other public 186 207Walk (over one mile) 157 247All modes 9,140 6,145Source: Stokes (1995)

[ 22 ]



between these two villages. House prices(compared in January 1996 from a sample of45) after allowing for number of bedroomsand house design, were broadly the same(£96,000 and £100,700 respectively).

The effect of transport corridors The residents of Chalgrove travel to morediverse destinations than the residents ofCholsey. Figure 2 shows the journeys fromChalgrove, which are almost in the shape of astar and Figure 3 shows journeys fromCholsey, in which there are three main axis ofpathways from the village.

In Figures 2 and 3 the lines have beenweighted by volume of journeys to the maindestinations. The figures relate to total ofjourneys – by any mode, not just public trans-port. Journeys within the same village, townor city and journeys between and from non-Oxfordshire destinations into Oxfordshirehave been omitted.

Public transport availability may funneltravel demand into corridors. The availabil-ity of good public transport, i.e. at least anhourly service, contributes to over half of alltrips going to destinations along its routes(Figures 2 and 3).

Do public transport corridors diminish travel poverty?

Travel poverty is related, we believe, to lackof choice. From the questions of mode oftravel used for each journey and the availabil-ity of a car, it has been possible to ascertainsome information on choice.

In Tables III and IV, the numbers indicatethe proportion of journeys in which a car wasavailable as an alternative, ranging from nochoice for bus users (0 per cent) to completechoice of car mode for motorcycle and taxiusers (100 per cent). There is a 97 per centlevel of choice for car users as some of themwere being given lifts, and they did not have acar available to use on a different journey.

Tables III and IV show that a higher propor-tion of those travelling by bus and train inCholsey had a choice (37 per cent and 92 percent respectively) of using a car comparedwith those in Chalgrove (0 per cent has achoice in relation to the bus, there was notrain use recorded by residents in thesample). This indicates that the higher levelof public transport provision in Cholseyincreases modal choice and discourages caruse.

However, more of those cycling had a choicein Chalgrove than in Cholsey. This figure mayreflect the higher levels of car ownership inChalgrove compared to Cholsey.

There is clearly a greater proportion ofpeople making a choice not to use a car inCholsey. (The weather was not a factor as thissurvey was undertaken during a heatwave inAugust, when there was no rain.) Apart fromtaxis, the trains have the ability to attract thehighest proportion of those who could use acar. Journey destinations from Cholsey havealready been shown to be concentrated alongthe routes served by the train (Figure 3). Thisindicates potential for encouraging modalswitching to the train, given more appropri-ate costs and services.

In terms of increasing choice, then, thispublic transport corridor, along with goodlocal facilities (in this case a market townabout 4 miles away) succeeds. However, it isnot clear that those who were able to exercisethe choices were those who would otherwisebe unable to travel. Much of the most tellingdata which we collected to answer this ques-tion were qualitative, as the issues were oftencomplex and dynamic, and could not be easilybe captured with, in this instance, the some-what blunt instrument of a questionnaire.

Watlington

London

ReadingGoring

CholseyWallingford

Thame

Wheatley

Abingdon

Didcot

OxfordCity

Chalgrove

Henleyon

Thames

SouthOxfordshire

KeyNumber of journeys

0-45-910-1950-60

Note: (Average figures for each direction)42 other journeys were made in Oxon and 11.5journeys were made to outside Oxon

N

Figure 2Journeys made by the residents of Chalgrove

[ 23 ]



The travel poor

In both villages, those on state benefit,unskilled manual workers and housewivesare making, on average, much shorter jour-neys than people in other social groups(Figures 4 and 5). People on state benefit and housewives would be likely to spendmuch of their time at home, and, possibly,unskilled manual workers might work morelocally than people with other skills. Thiscould indicate travel poverty. Typically, these groups are amongst the low-paid, andlack of disposable income is often correlatedto not being able to travel as much as iswanted.

In answer to the question “Has there everbeen a job you considered, but didn’t applyfor because of the difficulties of gettingthere?” 33 per cent of those who answered(37) said yes. This answer raises issues aboutthe economic inefficiency of not havingmore adequate public transport infrastruc-ture or land-use policies.

However, this figure may be inflated by thelarge number of young people in this survey,many of whom may be students or in theearly stages of their working lives, and so

unlikely to be earning average wages. Lowincome could then be correlated with a lackof mobility due to not being able to afforddriving lessons or a car.

The following comment illustrates some ofthe strong feelings about lack of travelopportunities from a group of young peoplein one of the villages studied. The boys per-ceive that lack of facilities leads them tocrime:

Spike: We need transport or we need facili-ties. Or all we do is get in trouble. True orfalse?[Clamour of voices]AR: How do you think transport wouldhelp?Spike: Get us out of trouble, won’t it? We’dbe doing things. We might get pissed an’that, but...Andy: What’s stopping you going to Oxfordand beating someone up? That [transport]ain’t going to keep you out of trouble is it?Spike: Yeah! (emphatically) But what’sstopping us here... smoking drugs and that?If we went to Oxford...Andy: There’s nothing stopping you smok-ing drugs, man...Spike: Yeah, but if we’d got transport you’regoing to be doing other things ain’t you?

Spike felt that the absence of good transportand facilities lead to anti-social behaviour(e.g. the desire to get into fights) and bettertransport would encourage more sociallyacceptable activities through wider

Watlington

London

ReadingGoring

CholseyWallingford

ThameWheatley

Abingdon

Didcot

OxfordCity

Chalgrove

SouthOxfordshire

KeyNumber of journeys

0-45-910-19

Note: (Average figures for each direction)35.5 other journeys were made in Oxon and14.5 journeys were made to outside Oxon

N

Henleyon

Thames

Figure 3Journeys made by the residents of Cholsey

Table IIIChoice in travel mode for journeys starting inChalgrove

Mode of Proportion who Number oftransport had a choice (%) journeys

Bicycle 33 33Bus 0 39Car 97 405Motorcycle 100 7Taxi 100 2Walk 75 275

Table IVChoice in travel mode for journeys starting inCholsey

Mode of Proportion who Number oftransport had a choice (%) journeys

Bicycle 16 79Bus 37 35Car 97 406Taxi 100 3Train 92 37Walk 91 243

[ 24 ]



opportunities. The problems of isolation forpeople in rural areas can mean that depriva-tion is hidden. In these instances, the discus-sion is usually focused on those who haveslipped from genteel affluence to impover-ishment that often the poor themselves finddifficult to admit to. Another form of depri-vation is reflected in Spike’s comment: it isthe boredom and frustration of travelpoverty.

Young women in the sample were muchmore likely to be escorted by parents and/orboyfriends than the young men. Their

choices about travel were frequently curtailed by fears about their safety, andsometimes by the cost of travelling. The avail-ability of finance for cars was also affected bygender.

In this study, none of the women but 17 percent of male respondents had their cars paidfor by sources such as “company”, “someoneelse” or cars were jointly purchased by par-ents and children.

Travel poverty does not have any objec-tively measurable effects, unlike, say fuelpoverty. In this study, we concentrated on the

100

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Figure 4Median distance travelled on study day by occupation for the residents of Chalgrove

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Figure 5Median distance travelled on study day by occupation by the residents of Cholsey

[ 25 ]



16-29 year-old age groups and found that theydid experience lack of choice about travel.The public transport in the travel corridordid provide some extra choice, albeit only tothe extent of buses and trains being used for 6 per cent and 5 per cent of all journeysrespectively. The qualitative data suggeststhat, for this age group, mobility might bemost effectively enhanced by reductions infares and alternative transport schemessuch as lift-sharing, shared taxis, or pay-as-you-ride type of car-sharing which couldallow autonomy and some (perceived) degreeof personal safety, especially at night.

Travel corridors and the environment

Energy use is directly linked to carbon diox-ide emissions, which contribute to climatechange. The impact of the journeys onenergy use have been estimated in Table V.These figures include journey length withmode and passengers as the main variables.Estimations based on figures by Banister(1992). Car occupancy is assumed to be 1 forcar drivers, but 2 for car passengers. Busesand trains are assumed to be 33 per cent fullelectric trains. Both diesel suburban andIntercity trains use more energy. Similarfigures, but with a lower MJ figure for cars,are given in Hughes (1993).

The environmental gain made (2,300 MJper day, 16,000 MJ per week, 839,500 MJ peryear) amongst those sampled in Cholsey isprobably as a result of the existence of railuse. The energy use in Chalgrove is 0.0191

MJ/mile/ person/day and 0.0179MJ/mile/person/day in Cholsey. If the 679miles travelled on trains had been under-taken by car, then the energy use for Cholseywould rise to 0.0204 MJ/mile/ person/day.

Cholsey uses approximately one-fifth lessenergy than Chalgrove. The difference inenergy use may partly be attributable to aconvergence of more journeys in a “trans-port corridor” and better public transport inCholsey compared to Chalgrove. More thandouble the miles were travelled by environ-mentally friendlier modes of transport, suchas public transport or cycle, in Cholsey thanin Chalgrove (Table V).

The proportion of “green” miles isstrongly affected by the rail service fromCholsey. Railways miles account for 48 percent of all distance by environmentallyfriendly travel modes. This points to theparticular environmental usefulness of railcorridors. In Figure 5 all the groups exceptthe unskilled manual workers, those on statebenefit and the housewives used the train.This strongly suggests a correlation withaverage or above average income and railuse, a correlation which is broken, perhaps,by the students because they are alloweddiscounted rail fares.

A challenge for planners

The problems of rural transport nearlyalways involve the need to develop popularcommunity services without high infra-structural costs. Many innovative ruraltransport solutions such as post buses, lift-sharing or shared taxis are successful buthave two main problems:

1 they are relatively unattractive to thosewho might otherwise travel by car; and

2 they often require subsidies – eitherfinancial or the unpaid work or goodwillof volunteers – to ensure they can run.

From the evidence above, it appears thatpublic transport corridors might be a way of encouraging use of public transportin rural areas – allowing housing develop-ment in greater concentrations could enablethe commercial viability of transport corridors.

Public transport corridors can offer a low-public-cost alternative that will allowgreater personal travel, if demand continuesto grow. The changes to land-use planningwhich would allow the further developmentof public transport corridors, throughencouraging certain types of development at“nodes” along these corridors is within thepowers of County Councils, the UK

Table VEstimated energy use and mode of transport

Estimated energy use Chalgrove CholseyMode MJ/passenger mile (MJ/day) (MJ/day)

Bus 0.83 164 318Car 3.21 10,245 8,349Company car 3.21 1,944 1,435Cycle 0.10 8 15Friend’s car 1.60 564 15Hitchhike 1.60 78 N/AMinibus 1.15 141 15Motorcycle 3.13 141 N/ASchool bus 0.83 7 N/ATaxi 1.15 9 8Train 0.89 N/A 595Underground 1.08 N/A 11Walk 0.25 43 45Total: MJ per day 13,345 11,006Average miles per person 33 34Number of people in sample 145 134

[ 26 ]



equivalent of regional planning authorities.Taking this opportunity would be in accordwith current planning guidance, whichencourages the adoption of measuresdesigned to reduce the need for car travel, e.g.Department of the Environment and Depart-ment of Transport (undated).

There is considerable pressure for councilsto develop road corridors, as some influentialgroups believe these encourage economicdevelopment. However, this has been shownnot to be the case. Whitelegg (1994) writes

50 years of economic geography on bothsides of the Atlantic have clarified exactlywhich factors encourage new firm creation,job creation, inward investment and thelocational decisions of entrepreneurs.Transport costs are not a significant vari-able and rarely account for more than 2 percent of value of sales.

Whitelegg’s article shows that roads do notcontribute significantly to economic prosper-ity.

There are difficulties with the development ofpublic transport corridors:1 It would appear, from the results described

here, that rail corridors are not, undercurrent circumstances, likely to alleviatetravel poverty to any significant extent.The costs of travelling by rail are, on thewhole, prohibitive to people on low-incomes or the unemployed.

2 There is also a problem that not all villageswill be likely to be on, or amenable to thecreation of, a public transport corridors.What happens to those that are not on one?The number of railways is limited and thecreation of new railways is rare. The likeli-hood is that the current privatization ofthe UK railway is unlikely to change thissituation. However, there are also possibil-ities for developing better walking andcycling facilities, which might be moreappropriate than public transport in someareas. Sustrans, a charity, has developed anational network of cycle tracks, often ondisused railway lines, and hasdemonstrated the attractiveness of non-motorized rural and urban “corridors”,for example.

3 If councils were to subsidize services onpublic transport corridors in order tosupport the development of a “virtuousspiral” of growing services and increased

usage, then this might mean, in currentfinancial circumstances, cutting servicesfrom elsewhere. Is it justifiable to developa high quality public transport service inone area if this means depriving somepeople of an infrequent bus service?

The proportion of journeys which have adestination accessible by public transport ishigher from Cholsey than Chalgrove, suggest-ing that the public is using centres that areserved by public transport and might be will-ing to use more public transport with anacceptable level of service.

One opportunity exists for extending therange of accessibility of rail services viaconnecting bus services, which is that thechanging legislative structure will allowmore combined bus service and rail serviceownership in the same geographical area,something which was not allowed underprevious regulations. This expansion of own-ership might be used to ensure better inter-modality and complementary of bus and trainservices. Stagecoach, a large service provider,has already opened an innovative bus servicethat joins a train service in Hampshire,southern England.

Conclusions

This article supports the idea that publictransport corridors could provide environ-mentally friendlier forms of travel in somerural areas. Rail transport corridors wereshown to increase modal choice but they werenot found to be affordable by some groups –such as the those dependant on state benefits– whose travel poverty is directly linked tolow-income.

Evidence presented here suggests railwayshave the ability to compete with car travel.Many of the private car trips were shown tobe along “corridor” routes, demonstrating,prima facie, opportunities for switching topublic transport.

The main environmental advantages ofrural public transport corridors appear to bethat they reduce energy use from transport,and potentially, allow for an increase in per-sonal mobility while keeping emissions atcurrent, or similar levels. This aspect couldcontribute to the meeting of the internation-ally-agreed “greenhouse gas” reductions.Without a change in fiscal measures, ruraltravel corridors do not help the travel poormuch. They are not a panacea, or a placebo,but one small move in the direction of sus-tainability.

“...Evidence presented here suggests railways have the ability tocompete with car travel. Many of the private car trips were shownto be along ‘corridor’ routes, demonstrating, prima facie,opportunities for switching to public transport....”

[ 27 ]



References and further readingACRE (Action with Communities in Rural Eng-

land) (1994), Rural Life: Facts and Figures,ACRE, Cirencester.

Banister, D. (1992), “Energy use, transport andsettlement patterns”, in Breheny, M.J. (Ed.),Sustainable Development and Urban Form,Pion, London.

Department of the Environment and Departmentof Transport (undated), Planning Policy Guid-ance 13: Transport, HMSO, London.

Greene, D. and Santini, D. (Eds) (1993), Trans-portation and Global Climate Change, Ameri-can Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy,Washington, DC.

Henshaw, D. (1994), The Great Railway Conspiracy,Leading Edge Press and Publishing, Hawes,North Yorkshire.

Hughes, P. (1993), Personal Transport and the Greenhouse Effect, Earthscan, London.

Oxfordshire County Council (1994), OxfordshireDevelopment Trends, Oxfordshire CountyCouncil, Oxford.

Root, A., Boardman, B. and Fielding, W. (1996),Rural Travel and Transport Corridors, Envi-ronmental Change Unit, University of Oxford,Oxford.

Stanner, D. and Bourdeau, P. (Eds) (1995), Europe’sEnvironmental Assessment, European Envi-ronmental Agency, Copenhagen.

Stokes, G. (1995), Rural Transport Policy in the1990s, Institution of Civil Engineers, Trans-port Journal, London.

Whitelegg, J. (1994), Roads, Jobs and the Economy,Greenpeace, London.

[ 28 ]



Freight transport, food production and consumptionin the USA and Europe (or, how far can you ship abunch of onions in the USA?)

Stefanie BögeWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

Focuses on freight trans-portation, food supply andconsumer behaviour in theUSA and Europe, especiallyGermany. Finds that on bothsides of the Atlantic, infreight transportation andfood supply there are manydifferences as well as similar-ities. The main differencesare that the USA has a biggerland area and larger, moreconcentrated economic units.Naturally, therefore, one findsa higher volume of long dis-tance freight transport thanin Europe. Similarities can beobserved such as the trendtowards privatization andliberalization, to moreextended suburbanization orto an unreflected way ofconsumer behaviour. In addi-tion raises some new ques-tions: is the “technologicalsolution” of environmentalproblems the only way? Whatcan be done to includelifestyles and consumerbehaviour into a new strat-egy?

Introduction

This is a condensed version of a report under-taken for an Environmental Fellowship fromthe German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the USAfor which the author was selected in 1995. TheGMF’s environmental programme is referredto as “Building US – European Environmen-tal Partnerships”. It focuses on local, regionaland national responses to the threat of globalwarming. The main focus of the fellowshipreport was on freight transport, food supplyand consumption patterns.

In general the answers to the environmen-tally problematical development in freighttransport are technical ones namely that:administrators and scientists should try toimprove engines, transportation modes andlogistic strategies. Freight transport is influ-enced by production, consumption, land-usepatterns and lifestyles, but these fundamentaldeterminants of increasing traffic are rarelygiven the same priority as the technical solu-tions.

Freight transport is heavily influenced bythe nature of countries’ economies (i.e. whatand how they produce, and where they pro-duce and consume it), as well as their size andphysical geography. Because the USA andWestern Europe are quite dissimilar in size,geography, production and consumptioncharacteristics, their freight systems havemany differences.

However, on both sides of the Atlantic therehas been an increase in the travelling dis-tances made by freight transportation, andwith that an increase of environmental prob-lems from freight. Reasons for the distance-intensive development in production andconsumption can be found in transport poli-cies, the locations and production patterns ofthe (food) industry, the policy and location ofretailers, the principles behind agriculture,the shopping behaviour of consumers andland-use patterns. To reduce the environmen-tal impacts of freight transportation, it isnecessary to consider the nature of food sup-ply as a whole (as well as automobile usagefor shopping); freight transport is a result ofpolicies and distance-intensive lifestyles.

Transport policies in the USA

The USA has more than five times the landarea of former West Germany; UK; France;Italy; Sweden and Norway (US Congress,Office of Technology Assessment, 1994) andtherefore more long distance freight trans-port. In general, this long distance travel isnot seen as a problem in the USA. It is com-mon that food is produced on the west coastand sold on the east coast and thereforeshipped over thousands of miles.

Transport policy in the USA concentrateson efficiency standards, but in spite of thebetter fuel efficiency in the vehicle fleet, theenergy consumption and emissions are grow-ing, especially in freight transportation(Schipper and Scholl, 1995). New regulations(i.e. a CO2-tax), so many decision makers say,are opposed to the free enterprise marketeconomy. Because of the extreme recession inthe economy in the last five years, politiciansare very careful with any regulations. As inEurope freight issues are not very importantin planning (on the official side planning isseen as communism or socialism), eventhough consciousness of the problem is grow-ing.

Although there are no formal freight trans-port policies showing how this sector shouldbe handled in a more environmentally soundway (neither in the Clean Air Act nor in theClimate Action Plan), there are some initia-tives at regional level to improve the currentfreight system. The basis for that is the Fed-eral Intermodal Surface Transportation Effi-ciency Act (ISTEA), which expanded the roleplayed by metropolitan planning organiza-tions in regional transportation decisionsaffecting freight (Jones, 1995). In additionsome regions develop Air Quality Manage-ment Plans which include mobile emissionsources such as trucks and trains[1] andthere are efforts to find out how much mater-ial is transported within a region and toresolve the lack of knowledge about freightdata[2].

In general, as in Western Europe, there isan assumption that the costs and prices offreight transport are too low. However in theUSA this is a more theoretical debate than inEurope because there is no serious sign

[ 29 ]

Stefanie BögeFreight transport, food production and consumptionin the USA and Europe (or,how far can you ship a bunchof onions in the USA?)


(there is even a retreat) from politicians, and,nobody can predict what would happen ifprices were increased. Would this reduceroad traffic and lead to more environmentallysound transportation modes? European gaso-line prices are 2.5 times higher than in theUSA, but there is an increase in road freighttransport here as well. Therefore, pessimisticrepresentatives point out, nothing willchange with higher prices – especially highergasoline prices. Everyone knows that onecannot raise prices so much that a significantchange will happen. The optimistic view isnot only to raise fuel costs (only 4-5 per cent ofoperation of the vehicle is fuel cost) but alsochange other factors which have effects ontrucking (i.e. fixed costs). It is estimated thatif transportation costs for road freight aredoubled, there will be more rail and inter-modal (especially with double stacked con-tainers), and more regional self-sufficiency.

Nevertheless, the current situation is dif-ferent. Because of the fixed costs for runninga truck, short distances are much moreexpensive than long distances, even emptyback movements are not a serious cost factor.Beyond that the freight sector is more elasticthan passenger transport, because there isthe possibility to pass on the higher prices toconsumers. The situation in freight has stabi-lized on a distorted basis and the system cancontinue in the same (environmentally bad)way, although there are some clever environ-mentalists with good ideas. To reduce longdistance (road) freight transport, much morethan a raise in prices will be necessary.

Food and freight transport

Compared with other sectors, transportationcosts in the food sector are relatively high.The delivery distances of low value agricul-ture commodities such as cattle and soyabeans are dependent on transportation costs.In general, raw materials (low value prod-ucts) are transported over small, andprocessed products over longer, distances.Therefore one important question in agricul-ture is how to minimize transportation costs.

However from the production standpoint,the main decision concerns finding the mar-ket for the product. The east coast of the USAhas very little basic food production andagricultural farming is cheaper on the westcoast. As a result the largest food industrycan be found in California, Oregon and Wash-ington State. For reasons of low productioncosts, food comes mainly from the west coastand is sold all over the USA. Although theo-retically no potatoes are shipped over thou-sands of miles because it would be too

expensive, one can buy bunches of freshonions from California in Washington, DC(for 90 cents).

As in Germany, an increase in organicagriculture can be observed. Unfortunately,transportation issues are not taken into con-sideration with organic or healthy food,although long distance transport has animpact on the quality. Farmers, manufactur-ers, shopkeepers and consumers pay littleattention to these issues. Many Americanssuppose that products from Europe arehealthier (or safer). This might be because ofthe defined standards and labels for organicfood in Europe. Products in Europe are testedby independent associations in which con-sumers trust whereas in the USA there are nocomparable standards or labels which arevalid for the whole country. Certain statesand manufacturers try to fix their own stan-dards, but they are more or less without anycontrol and so have gained little trust. Thereis no agreement on what form standardsshould take.

There is therefore much more confidence inEuropean food and US health food shopscontain a lot of products, such as crisp bread,cheese or juice from Switzerland or Germany.Furthermore, as with conventional food,organic fruits and vegetables are producedmostly on the west coast, so that a lot of theseproducts are shipped thousands of miles tothe east coast. There is a similar structuralsituation for organic food in Germany, but ona smaller geographical scale. When organicfood first became available, the demand for ittended to be concentrated in South Germanyand thus organic food had to be shipped overhundreds of kilometres to organic food shops.Now, after some years of supply, one can findmuch more organic farming and food pro-cessing in all parts of Germany, so that thedelivery distances of such products aredecreasing.

With the growing demand for organic foodthe situation in the USA is changing in thedirection of more decentralized productionpatterns. Especially on the east coast there isa growing interest to get more regional andlocal products, but the lack of organic produc-tion sites and adequate infrastructure stillmake it difficult to serve the market with“low distance organic food”. Nevertheless,one can find some initiatives which are head-ing in this direction.

Regional and local food production in theUSA is supported from diverse initiatives,especially from food co-operatives. In someStates such as Minnesota, these communitiesare very strong. They realized that trans-portation changed the economy towards aglobal mass production and mass market

[ 30 ]



with the result of loosing more and moreregional economic power. Therefore a grow-ing number of local initiatives (i.e. directdelivery initiatives) try to keep small produc-tion sites in their region, in food and othersectors. A reason for this is not least to createand preserve jobs. Cities are supporting suchinitiatives (i.e. community marketing orfarmer markets). However, consumer behav-iour today is generally in contrast with theideas of a sustainable food system with lesstransportation.

Consumer and travel behaviour

Product demands and shopping patterns inEurope are becoming more like those in theUSA:• people buy more and more processed food

(the main reason for this is given as thetime-saving aspect);

• people buy many more products at onetime, i.e. once a week or even once a month;and

• more and more people use their own cars togo shopping (it is estimated that 99 per centof Americans go shopping by car).

These trends are directly related to morefreight and more passenger transport and,furthermore, to other land-use patterns(large centralized production and large retailsales units) which affect consumer behaviour.

In general, processed food is closely associ-ated with more freight transport. More mate-rials are used, for which more productionsteps, and with that more transhipments, arenecessary. In addition, various packagingmaterials are needed. However, in addition tofreight transport being stimulated by thecurrent food system, by buying more prod-ucts at one time, it is necessary to carry allproducts in a car and, because of existingland-use patterns (big supermarkets outsidethe cities), almost everyone needs a car to goshopping. This initiates the vicious circle ofland use and traffic.

Because of the increasing number of foodmalls outside cities, shops in small townshave become very specialized and grocerystores for daily needs are few in number.Supported by this consumer behaviour, therehas been a change from a nation of smallbusiness owners to much fewer, but larger,operations. Stores are becoming larger andtherefore need more consumers to remainprofitable. On the other hand, large super-markets can offer better prices and a “better”quality of food, and consumers see advan-tages in using such facilities. The result isthat people have to travel longer distances tobuy daily things.

An identical situation in consumer behav-iour, traffic and land-use patterns can beobserved between West and East Germany,especially before but also after, the reunifica-tion – again to a lesser degree. Prior to reuni-fication there was a low ownership of privatecars and therefore East Germany had a muchmore dense and mixed land use. People wentto the shops on foot and bought produce morefrequently because they could not carry somuch. Even today big department stores fromWest German companies have problems inworking profitably because people do not buyenough. But with the rapidly growing owner-ship of private cars this phenomenon disap-pears.

It seems that transport and consumptionbehaviour is not, or almost not, changeablebecause it is related with other issues such asland-use patterns, prices or comfort. Butsome people are optimistic: if the publicunderstands what the problem is there is apotential that they will change behaviour, asseen with the anti-smoking campaigns in theUSA. People are more and more aware ofwhat they eat and safe food has an increasingimportance.

Conclusions

On both sides of the Atlantic one can find twogroups of environmentalists: people whowant to improve existing systems and peoplewho want to change value systems and stan-dards of values. Technical improvements are– compared with values or behaviour – easyto imagine and therefore most of the environ-mentalists believe in such solutions. Thequestion however is whether such“solutions” can be the only response to thethreat of global warming. CO2-emissions(especially in the transport sector) areincreasing, although there were enormoustechnical improvements in the past. There-fore values and behaviour should play a big-ger role in the future. Not least because CO2or other emissions are not the only problembut the decrease of our quality of life, whichis related, i.e. in the USA, with the problem ofunsafe food or in Europe with the problem ofincreasing need of space for motorized traffic.The first step for changing values is theunderstanding of connections, in this casebetween transport, quality of food and thequality of living space.

Information and education are very impor-tant to change values, although it seems thatpeople have too much information about toomany (useless) issues. For example, advertis-ing can be used for showing people how foodis produced and how fresh and healthy it can

[ 31 ]



be if it is consumed in the same region whereit is produced. Shorter transport distancesare connected with a better quality, a bettertaste and a higher variety of food. Such infor-mation should not be seen as additional butinstead of the current information.

It is said that the USA is the country ofchoice and possibilities. Looking closer, thisvariety seems an illusion as the amount andthe international choice of products has obvi-ously increased, but the system behind foodproduction is based on very homogeneousproducts (a few kinds, same size, same taste,same colour) which are easy to use for massproduction. Moreover, the interregional vari-ety (different kinds, size, taste and colours offruits, vegetables or animals) has decreaseddramatically. As Simone de Beauvoirdescribed the USA as far back as 1947:

…And soon one finds out, that all chocolateshave under the colourful wrapping the samepeanut taste and that all best-sellers tell thesame story. And why selecting this tooth-paste of all toothpaste? This useless over-abundance has a taste of mysticism. Thereare thousands of possibilities – and itremains already the same. You have a thou-sand fold choice – and one is as much asworth like another. The American citizencan use his freedom without realizing thatsuch a life is not free (de Beauvoir, 1988).

Today it seems that people in the USA aremore aware of this than in Europe, and thatEurope is believing in the myth of “uselessoverabundance” much more.

However compared with the USA one canfind in Western Europe much more environ-mental consciousness and more activities for

a sustainable way of life (especially in foodproduction and consumption, even a little bitin automobile usage). This does not meanthat the world looks better in Europe but itseems that together with the more diverseand smaller structures there are more oppor-tunities to create a sustainable way of life.

Notes1 For example, The 1994 Air Quality Manage-

ment Plan of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and the SouthernCalifornia Association of Governments, Sep-tember 1994.

2 For example, Truck Operations SurveyResults, South Coast Air Quality ManagementDistrict, prepared by Lockheed IMS, LA,March 1993.

Referencesde Beauvoir, S. (1988), Amerika Tag und Nacht.

Reisetagebuch 1947, (America from Day to Day:Travel Diary 1947), Rowohlt, Hamburg,p. 25.

Jones, D.W. (1995), Intermodal Performance Mea-sures for the Bay Area Transportation System,Summary report for the Metropolitan Trans-portation Commission, Oakland, CA, June.

Schipper, L. and Scholl, L. (1995), “Keep ontruckin’: energy use and CO2 emissions forfreight”, International Energy Studies, Draftof 27 October, Lawrence Berkeley NationalLaboratory, Berkeley, p. 10.

US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment(1994), Saving Energy in US Transportation,Government Printing Office, Washington, DC,July, p. 87.

[ 32 ]



Car-free households: who lives without anautomobile today?

Ulrike ReutterResearch Institute for Regional and Urban Development of the Federal State ofNorth Rhine-Westphalia, Dortmund, GermanyOscar ReutterWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

Considers methods to reduceprivate car ownership. Arguesthat conventional strategiesare approaching the limits oftheir efficacy. Concludes thatthe solution lies in imple-menting car-free zones.

Introduction

Many people have come to recognize privatemotor vehicle traffic as being one of themajor driving forces behind declining envi-ronmental and residential qualities in thecities. Rising numbers of motor vehicles andincreases in the mileage covered by privatelyowned vehicles bring with them growingaccident risk, land consumption, soil contam-ination, overall resource depletion andenergy use with the concomitant CO2 prob-lems, wastes in the manufacture and disposalof automobiles, and noise and air pollution.The countenance of the city and the quality oflife in cities both suffer.

Conventional strategies for solving suchproblems, including widespread traffic calm-ing or optimizing motor vehicle technology,are approaching the limits of their efficacy.They do indeed reduce the stress on the envi-ronment but the gains are more than offset byincreasing loads emanating from an unbro-ken rise in the numbers of vehicles and vol-ume of travel. This makes it necessary toabandon a taboo in our thinking and insteaddevelop planning concepts aimed at reducingthe number of automobiles. In this effortregional, urban and traffic planning shouldprovide incentives to those households whicheven today do without an automobile andencourage those who are considering elimi-nating a car now on hand in the household sothat they will actually relinquish that vehicle.

Car-free neighbourhoods within townswould make it possible for people who do notown a vehicle at present and all those whowould like to do without a car in the future toexperience, both individually and collectively,the benefits which liberation from the privatecar offers. All the residents, children as wellas adults, could then move freely within theentire public roadway area, not endangeredby vehicle traffic, and be able to cycle, play orsimply sit and relax in this newly reclaimedspace – without automobile exhausts andnoise.

The data reproduced below stem frombroad-based German statistics and above allfrom a telephone survey embracing 146 car-

free households selected at random in Dort-mund; we conducted this survey in Novemberof 1992 in conjunction with writing our dis-sertation (Reutter and Reutter, 1995). Here a“car-free” household is defined as one whichhas not owned a vehicle for at least a half yearand does not have access to either a companycar or a motorcycle. Our empirical results arerepresentative for the car-free households inDortmund.

How many car-free households are there?

In 1993 Germany was home to a total of 81.3million people; at the same time 38.9 millionpassenger cars were registered (cited inGerman Economic Research Institute, 1994, p. 7). In the period since the first Income andConsumption Sampling (ICS) which wasconducted in 1962, the number of non-motor-ized households has fallen continuously as aresult of ongoing mass motorization, downfrom the original 73 per cent of all households(Figure 1). The ICS conducted in January of1993 revealed that of the 35 million house-holds in Germany, about 10 million (28 percent) do not have a car, while 25 millionhouseholds (72 per cent) own at least onevehicle. About 18 per cent of the total Germanpopulation lives in car-free households;expressed in figures, that comes to 14 millionof the some 80 million people in Germany(German Federal Statistics Office, 1994, seeReutter and Reutter, 1994, pp. 112-18, fordetailed information on the socio-demographic structure of car-free house-holds.) On the national average, at leastone household in four does not own a vehicle.It is thus not possible to speak of “fullmotorization” in Germany. In Dortmundabout 81,000 (32 per cent) of the total of255,000 households do not own a vehicle(Figure 2).

These figures clearly indicate that, whenplanning and setting up car-free zones, thepeople who today already do without a carrepresent considerable demand or marketpotential.

[ 33 ]

Ulrike Reutter and OscarReutterCar-free households: wholives without an automobiletoday?


Where are the car-free households located?

The more “urban” the surroundings, thegreater the number of car-free households.The proportion of non-motorized householdsrises with the size of the town or city. Takingthe average of all cities and communities inGermany, the share of car-free householdslies at 28 per cent; in the larger towns with100,000 residents or more, this proportion isconsiderably higher. In fact, in the majorcities with populations exceeding 500,000, car-free households now account for more than 40per cent of the total.

Within these large cities, the percentage ofcar-free households in inner-city and mixed-use areas is especially high. In areas of thistype within the city of Dortmund, almost halfof all the households are without a car (46.4per cent); only slightly more than half of allhouseholds there have one or more vehiclesat their disposal (53.6 per cent) (see Figure 3).

These findings clearly indicate that thelarge cities particularly lend themselves tothe planning of car-free zones, and within acity the inner-city residential and mixed-useareas are especially suitable for car-free zon-ing. Let us summarize the factors here:• almost half of the households in the inner-

city residential areas in the large cities inwestern Germany already live without acar;

• these areas are characterized by a compar-atively great number, variety and densityof activities which represent destinationsfor individual journeys, including residen-tial areas, workplaces, shopping facilitiesand cultural and recreational facilities;

• these destinations can easily be reachedusing the so-called “green modes” –namely on foot, by bicycle and with publictransport.

The logical conclusion is that future focusshould be on identifying such quarters, capi-talizing on the favourable existing situationthere, in addition to pursuing citywide plan-ning projects to promote car-free living.

Car-free city zones in inner-city residentialand mixed-use areas should be set up bothwithin existing urban structures and innewly redeveloped areas – including thosebuilt on rehabilitated inner-city land such asabandoned commercial properties, evacuatedbarracks and other military facilities or

100

80

60

40

20

01962 1969 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993

Proportion in per cent

KeyCar-free householdsCar-owning households

Sources:Pöschl S. 925 (1993);Euler (1989, 5.314), S. 314;Reutter and Reutter (1995)

Figure 1Car-free households in western Germanythrough time

Car-owninghouseholds68.4 per cent

Car-freehouseholds

31.6 per cent


Car-freehouseholds

32.2 per cent


Car-freehouseholds

40.8 per cent

Sources: Authors’ own results from a telephonesurvey of selected, representative households inDortmund in November 1992, N = 640 households,German Federal Statistics Office 1994a;unnumbered; income and consumption samplingin January 1993 (Reutter and Reutter, 1995)

Dortmund

Cities with 100,000-500,000 residents

Cities with more than 500,000 residents

Figure 2Share of car-free households in Dortmund andin large western German cities

[ 34 ]

Ulrike Reutter and Oscar ReutterCar-free households: who lives without an automobile today?


former railway freight yards. Conversion andre-development projects in existing residen-tial areas over longer periods of time are sodecisive because, in comparison to the vol-ume of new construction, the bulk of avail-able housing is to be found there. In addition,quite a large number of non-motorized house-holds are located in such areas today; if theywanted to enjoy the collective advantages ofcar-free living they would otherwise firsthave to relocate. Older citizens in particular,no longer wanting or able to move house,would have hardly any prospects for enjoyingthe benefits of a car-free neighbourhoodunless projects were to be carried out in exist-ing residential areas.

Who currently lives without a car?

In addition to the role played by the characterof the neighbourhood itself, the socio-demographic household type to which a givenunit belongs correlates to a large degree with

its daily internal organization in regard totime and distances. If, for example, manypeople live in a single dwelling, their activi-ties have to be jointly arranged. If there arechildren in the home, their activities have tobe co-ordinated with those of the parents –and more often than not, of the mother alone.The daily rhythms of older people are quitedifferent from those of young people; if mem-bers of the household are gainfully employed,then they face very specific constraints interms of time and space.

Mobility research efforts and particularlyaction radius studies (time and space) showthat three socio-demographic characteristics:• the ages of the adult members of the house-

hold;• their participation in the working world;

and• the presence of children in the household;

can be used to describe quite accurately thesituation within which a household operates,i.e. the family’s rhythms form the basis for

Inner-cityresidential and

mixed-use zones

Secondarycentres

Suburbs

46.4

53.6

32.3

67.7

23.3

76.7

As a percentage of all households100

80

60

40

20

0

KeyCar-free householdsCar-owning households

Source: Author’s own results from a telephone survey of selected,representative housholds in Dortmund in November 1992, N = 146households + 146 car-free households (see Reutter and Reutter, 1995)

Figure 3. Car-free households according to the structure of the respective residential area in Dortmund, inNovember 1992

[ 35 ]



specific time-and-space constraints (seeHolzapfel, 1980; Holz-Rau, 1990; Kreibich etal., 1989; Mentz, 1984; Neuwerth, 1987; Reutteret al., 1991 ).

Applied to the non-motorized households inDortmund, three situationally homogenoustypes of car-free households emerge:1 retired households – aligning with the

trend;2 working households without children –

countering the trend;3 working households with children – also

counter to the trend.

Taken together, these three types describe 93 per cent of all car-free households inDortmund (Figure 4).

The retired households in line with thetrend include:• those made up of older and elderly persons,

where the individual responding to thesurvey was 55 years of age or older;

• in which there are no working adults;• in which there live no children under 18;

and• in which the adults are retired or have

taken early retirement or are housewives.

The members of these households have toconsider only relatively minor outside con-straints in terms of space and time since noneof them is involved in gainful employment.They must cover the distances and routesrequired for personal business (shopping,errands, banking, medical appointments,etc.) and for leisure-time activities. Amongthose older households in Dortmund wherethe person responding to the survey was 65years of age or older, about three-quarterswere single-person households, comprisingalmost exclusively women living alone; aboutone-quarter were two-person householdswhere the only constraints arise from theneed for co-ordination between the two

adults. Four out of ten retired households inline with the trend could, in their own estima-tion, afford a car. In Dortmund retired house-holds account for almost two-thirds of thenon-motorized households; they areestimated to number about 54,500.

The structure of the retired householdscorresponds precisely to the trend which canbe read from the data for western Germany(Reutter and Reutter, 1994), the proportion ofcar-free households being relatively high inthe groups of households• made up of older or elderly respondents;• where the respondents are not employed;• without children; and • in the smaller households, particularly

among the one-person units.

Included in those “working households with-out children” which run counter to the trendare the:• young and middle-aged households where

the person responding was in the employ-able age bracket, from 18 to a maximum of55 years;

• households in which at least one adult isgainfully employed; and

• households in which there live no childrenless than 18 years of age.

The working members of the household mustdeal with major limitations in terms of timeand distance, since they must pursue the“mandatory activity of working” at fixedworkplaces and during fixed working hours.Also affected by these constraints are theother activities of these particular householdmembers such as taking care of personalbusiness and pursuing leisure-time activities;the other adult members of the household arealso affected even if they are not working.When the members of the household want tospend free time together, for instance, theyare restricted to the early mornings, lateafternoons and evenings, and weekends, alltimes at which public transit services areconsiderably sparser than during normalworking hours.

In Dortmund at least half of these house-holds are single-person households. Aboutfour out of ten households are two-personhouseholds and only about 5 per cent includethree or more persons in which the need toorchestrate activities among the adult mem-bers of the household is particularly evident.Two-thirds of the counter-trend workinghouseholds without children could, in theirown opinion, afford to keep a vehicle. InDortmund this type of household structure,estimated to number 19,700, accounts foralmost a quarter of the car-free households.

When it manages without a vehicle, the“working household without children”

Trend-consistentretiredhouseholdswithout children62.3 per cent

Counter-trend workinghouseholds with children

6.2 per cent

Others8.9 per cent

Counter-trend workinghouseholds without children

22.6 per cent

Source: Authors’ own results from a telephone survey of selected,representative households in Dortmund in November 1992, N = 146households (see Reutter and Reutter, 1995)

Figure 4. Situation-homogeneous types of car-free households in Dortmund, inNovember 1992

[ 36 ]

Ulrike Reutter and Oscar ReutterCar-free households: who lives without an automobile today?


behaves exactly contrary to the trend whichcan be gleaned from the data for westernGermany (Reutter and Reutter, 1994), theproportion of car-free households being rela-tively low among those households with:• younger or middle-aged respondents;• gainfully employed respondents; and • higher net household incomes.

To be counted among the “working house-holds with children” which operate contraryto the trend are households with:• young and middle-aged where the person

replying was of employment age, from 18 to55 years;

• at least one adult gainfully employed; and • at least one child less than 18 years of age.

In these households – almost 90 per cent ofwhich include three or more persons inDortmund – the activities and associatedjourneys taken by the adults and the childrenmust be particularly carefully co-ordinatedand – especially where smaller children arepresent – closely synchronized. The organiza-tional effort in this type of household is enor-mous. Family members have high mobilityrequirements to cope with the need to co-ordinate time and the journeys resultingfrom the variety of activities to be carriedout: travel to and from work at regular timesand fixed locations, tending to personal busi-ness, leisure-time journeys and the varioustrips occasioned by the children all have to beharmonized. This is aggravated by theincreased amount of transportation capacityrequired not only for the foods and beveragesneeded daily but also for the equipment usedon family excursions and holidays. In theirown estimation, two-thirds of these house-holds could, without qualification, afford avehicle. In Dortmund this group accounts for6 per cent or about 5,500 of the car-free house-holds.

Where the “working household withoutchildren” does not own a car, it also contra-dicts the trend seen in the data for westernGermany (Reutter and Reutter, 1994), theproportion of car-free households being rela-tively low among those household groups:• with younger or middle-aged respondents;• with gainfully employed respondents;• with at least one child;• made up of three or more persons; and • with higher net combined income.

On the basis of the typology elucidated here,urban planning and traffic planning should,in our opinion, support the everyday organi-zation of time-and-space requirements spe-cific to those people now living in car-freehouseholds so that individuals who today do

without a motor car will not need to purchaseone in the future to cope with living in cities.

People who live without a car in the “trend-consistent retired households” are quiteparticularly dependent on an intact infra-structure close to their homes to take care ofpersonal business and to pursue leisure-timeactivities – particularly daily walks in thenearby neighbourhood. This is because olderpeople often suffer from motor and sensorylimitations relevant to negotiating in traffic,complicated by physical frailty; as a conse-quence they are particularly sensitive todistances and are at high accident risk. Olderand elderly people who organize their day-to-day living without a car require serviceswhich are easily reached and universallyaccessible (including safe walking andcycling paths) in the transportation optionsoffered by the “green modes” so that they arenot limited in their mobility.

For people who live without a vehicle in the“counter-trend working household withoutchildren”, efforts designed specifically topromote this target group would concentrateparticularly on the evenings and weekends,namely when they are pursuing activitieswhich are not work-related – such as shop-ping, running errands and enjoying leisureactivities – making the organization of dailyliving both simple and efficient. This is partic-ularly important for people in car-free house-holds with several employed individuals whocan spend only a relatively small share of theirtime together in leisure activities. Simple andefficient day-to-day organization for people incar-free households means in particular anarrangement of “activity destinations”, suchas workplaces, shopping facilities, leisure andrecreational facilities, which adheres to theprinciple of keeping distances short. Alsoessential are adequate transit services withinthe “green modes”, particularly in the eveningand at the weekend.

For those living in “counter-trend workinghouseholds with children”, support effortstargeted specifically at this group would alsomean – over and above the measures initiatedfor the “counter-trend working householdswithout children” – that in particular thechildren’s infrastructure facilities such askindergartens and day-care centres, school orrecreational facilities be located near thehome, where they may be easily and safelyreached with the “green modes”. It should bepossible for children to play in the immediatevicinity of their homes safely and withouthazard, these being the most accessible playareas for children and young people. In addi-tion, improved delivery services could easethe increased transportation requirementsfor the groceries required daily. The greater

[ 37 ]



amount of transportation capacity needed tocarry luggage and equipment when travellingwith children should be met with carefullyconsidered improvements in public transportservices, particularly on weekends.

In closing

The demand for car-free city neighbourhoodsis evident. “All that needs to be done” is toimplement car-free zones in the cities – whenplanning new areas and within existing resi-dential structures.

References(The following publications are available in German only)Euler, M. (1989), “Austattung privater Haushalte

mit allgewählen langlebigenGebrauchsgütern im Januar 1989”, inWirtschaft und Statistik, No. 5, Stuttgart, s. 307-15.

German Economic Institute (DIW) (Eds) (1994),Verkehr in Zahlen 1994, (Traffic in figures1994), The Federal Minister of Traffic andTransportation, Bonn, Berlin.

Holz-Rau, H.-C. (1990), “Bestimmungsgrössen desverkehrsverhaltens - analyse bundesweiterhaushaltsbefragungen und modellierendeHochrechnung” (“Determining factors intraffic behaviour – analysis of national sur-veys of households and model extrapolation”),Dissertation Technische Universität, Berlin.

Holzapfel, H. (1980), “Verkehrsbeziehungen inStädten” (“Traffic interrelationships incities”), Dissertation Technische Universität,Berlin.

Kreibich, B., Kreibich, V. and Ruhl, G. (1989), “Vomfunktionsraum zum aktionsraum:wissenschaftliche grundlagen für eine mod-ernisierung der infrastruktur- und regional-planung”, (“Scientific principles for modern-ization of infrastructure and regional plan-ning”), Informationen zur Raumentwicklung,Vol. 1, pp. 51-71.

Mentz, H.J. (1984), “Analyse von Verkehrsverhal-ten im Haushaltskontext” (“Analyses of trafficbehaviour in the context of the private

household”), Dissertation Technische Univer-sität, Berlin.

Neuwerth, K.-W. (1987), Abhangigkeit desVerkehrsverhaltens vom raumstrukturellenAngebot (Dependency of Traffic Behaviour onSpatial Structure), Braunschweig.

Poschl, H. (1993), “Ausstatting privater Hauschaltemit lanlebigen, Gebrauchsgütern im Januar1993”, in Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, s. 924-8.

Reutter, O. and Reutter, U. (1994), “AutofreieHaushalte, Daten zur Sozialstruktur einerunterschätzten Bevölkerungsgruppe” (“Car-free households: data on the social structureof an underestimated population group”),RaumPlanung 65, pp. 112-18.

Reutter, O. and Reutter, U. (1995), “Autofreies lebenin der stadt: eine beschreibung des autofreienlebens in westdeutschen Grossstädten amende des 20. Jahrhunderts und vorschläge diestadt- und verkehrsplanung zur förderung desautofreien lebens in der stadt, insbesonderedurch die einrichtung autofreierstadtquartiere in bestehenden innerstädtis-chen wohngebieten” (“Car-free living in thecity: a description of car-free living in westernGerman cities at the close of the 20th centuryand suggestions for urban and traffic plan-ning to promote car-free living in the city, inparticular through the establishment of car-free zones within existing inner-city neigh-bourhoods”), Dissertation for the Urban andRegional Planning Department at the Univer-sity of Dortmund, Dortmund (publication inpreparation).

Reutter, O., Schütte, F.-P. and Kreibich, V. (1991),“Reisezeitverkürzung im ÖPNV” (“Reducingtravel times in local public transit”), ILS-Schriften 55, Dortmund.

Statistisches Bundesamt (1994), Fachserie 15“Wirtschaftsrechnung Einkommens- undVerbrauchsstichprobe 1993, Heft 1, LanglebigeGebrauchsgüter” Vorabdruck noch ohneSeitenangaben (German Federal StatisticsOffice. Professional series 15, Business calcu-lations for income and consumption sam-plings, 1993, Volume 1, Consumer durables).Wiesbaden (draft publication, not paginated).

[ 38 ]

This article was aninvited paper at the Work-shop Roads and Economyorganized by the EuropeanFederation for Transport and Environment, Brussels, 8 December 1995.



Road construction and economic growth from asouthern European perspective

Gianni SilvestriniResearch Unit: Energy and Environmental Policy, Cnr Ieren, Palermo, Italy

Claims that economic devel-opment should be decoupledfrom transport growth, asconventional economicgrowth stimulates demand fortransportation infrastructure,particularly roads, with con-sequent environmental reper-cussions. Feels that potentialimpact on the environmentshould be assessed, particu-larly in relation to globalwarming. Explores alternativesolutions to building newroads and gives examplesfrom Spain, Italy, Austria andSwitzerland.

Introduction

Transportation represents the sector ofhuman activities that seems more difficult toadapt in a context of sustainable develop-ment. Besides the well-known local environ-mental impacts, the increasing contributionto emissions of greenhouse gases will repre-sent an alarming deficit in the followingdecades. The decision taken in April 1995 bythe Conference of the Parties in Berlin todefine by 1997 limitation and reductionobjectives on greenhouse gases emissionsfor industrialized countries by 2005, 2010 and2020, could make a radical redirection of thetransportation policies obligatory.

The carbon dioxide contribution of mobil-ity is in fact growing faster than in all othersectors and the conventional scenarios pre-pared by different governments consider acontinuous increase of the emissions in thenext 10-20 years.

Since road transport is mainly responsiblefor this situation, particular attentionshould be devoted to the policies able toreduce the contribution of this sector, con-trolling the mobility demand, improving thevehicles technologies and rethinking theinvestments in infrastructures.

Is it possible to decouple transportfrom economic growth?

While during the 1970s and the 1980s it waspossible to decouple energy consumptionand economic activity in the industrializedcountries, there are very few signs that asimilar “revolution” is also beginning forthe transportation sector. On the contrarythere are strong forces, like the liberaliza-tion of the markets, that move in the oppo-site direction.

However, if carbon reduction targets are tobe achieved in the following decades, it isquite obvious that a decoupling similar tothat achieved in the energy sector shouldbegin, breaking the link between mobility

and economic growth and reducing, at least,the transport growth rate.

The situation is well known. In Europe,freight transport has grown by about 60 percent since 1970 and according to officialforecasts the trend will continue for the next15-20 years, with rates up to 4 per cent peryear. There has been a strong correlationbetween the economic growth and the goodstraffic growth. The elasticity index has beenof 0.9 for total freight transport and 1.7 forroad freight transport.

Similar data describe the passenger mobil-ity situation. Each 1 per cent of GDPincrease has seen in OECD Europe a 1.4 percent increase in private car traffic.

Added traffic induced by newinfrastructuresThe construction of a new infrastructurewill inevitably create more mobility.

Considering that, according to empiricalinvestigations over different countries anddifferent time periods, the “Travel TimeBudget” (the mean time travelled per day byan active adult) has remained stable overtime, averaging about one hour, and that the“Travel Money Budget” (the amount ofmoney for personal mobility) is also consid-ered constant at approximately 13 per cent ofthe disposable income (Marchetti, 1988), thetime “saved” by an improvement of a roadwill be spent in additional mobility increas-ing the spatial access (as the diffuse urban-ization of US towns demonstrates).

This tendency is, however, never consid-ered in cost-benefit analyses. These usuallyassume that improved roads, or new roads,will not generate additional traffic. This factis quite misleading in situations where net-works operate close to capacity, because theinduced traffic affects the level of congestionof the whole network. Not considering thisside effect will lead to an overestimate of thebenefits from the new proposal.

A very precise critic of the conventionalplanning approach has been elaborated by aspecial committee on behalf of the UK gov-ernment, using for this analysis also the

[ 39 ]

Gianni SilvestriniRoad construction and economic growth from asouthern European perspective


forecast and observed traffic of 151 trunkroad schemes (Sactra, 1994). A committeemember, Philip Goodwin, has calculated thata new road generates an average 10 per centmore traffic the moment it opens.

According to an evaluation related to theGerman situation, a third of the annualtraffic growth should be attributed to theconstruction of new roads (Pfeiderer andDietrich, 1995).

This phenomenon has been detected alsoin presence of new high speed trains lines. InSpain for example, the introduction of theMadrid-Seville, line has produced 300.000trips per year (26 per cent of total) that wouldnot have been made in absence of the newrail infrastructure (Estevan and Sanz, 1994).

Change the priority from hardware tosoftwareIn order to provide mobility services, inmany situations it is cheaper and environ-mentally more friendly to explore othersolutions than building new roads. Organi-zational measure, software-oriented strate-gies user charges can increase the efficiencyof transport networks and reduce the needfor new infrastructure.

The cost of this approach is usually muchlower than that of the traditional strategy ofnew constructions. It may be useful, for thisreason, to transfer the “least cost planning”procedure applied with success in USA inthe energy field to the mobility sector.

This approach consists in comparing dif-ferent options on the “demand side” throughenergy saving technologies along with dif-ferent power plant options in order to definethe mix of solutions able to satisfy a fore-casted demand increase with the least costfor the utility (or for the society).

A similar approach could be applied also totransportation, evaluating the best way toprovide mobility services rather than justconsidering the construction of new roads.

Rethinking economic co-operation toreduce good transportThe dominant transport policy in the Euro-pean Union consists in the adaptation of theexisting national transport infrastructureinto cross border networks in order to pro-vide access in Europe as a single country.

The proposed TEN (Trans European trans-port Networks) will absorb an incredibleamount of money (400-500 billion ecus overthe next 15 years, of which 10 per cent will becovered by European funds) and will havesignificant environmental impacts, whilethe effects on economic growth and employ-ment are questionable.

Just to concentrate on the global warmingissue, it has been calculated that the pro-gramme will cause a rise in carbon dioxideemissions from the transport sector of 15-18 per cent above existing forecasts of 42per cent increase by 2010 (Greenpeace, 1995).

Since these new connections should stimu-late employment and economic recovery, inparticular in the less developed regions, it isimportant to verify how the projects reallywill reach these results.

Analysing in particular road freight trans-port, we should note that the large majorityof the exchanges in Europe are for destina-tions shorter than 50km (in Germany thisfraction covers 85 per cent of total).

The tendency, however, is to increase theaccessibility between distant places and tosubstitute regional with supra-regional co-operation.

A clear example of the enlargement of themarket area is given by the fact that while inthe 1970s the Italian shops were selling onlylocal mineral waters and other drinks, nowthese products travel over much larger dis-tances. In an investigation of a few years ago,drinks represented 8 per cent of the totalroad freight transported over distances ofmore than 400km. The increase in travel isnot only generated by the distribution sys-tem but also by the production logistics.

A striking example of the travels’ derivedby the actual distribution of productioncentres has been given analysing the directdeliveries travel necessary to produce yogurtin the Stuttgart area in Germany (Böge,1995). A total length of 3,500km is necessaryto deliver all the ingredients necessary toproduce the yogurt; a single 150g pot implies9.2m of lorry movement with a fuelconsumption equal to 2 per cent of the prod-uct weight to be sold. Considering a differentterritorial distribution of production centresthat privileges the manufacturers nearest tothe consumption area, a 67 per cent reduc-tion in distances travelled could be achieved,with a 75 per cent reduction in transport onmotorways (Holzapfel, 1995).

In contrast with this example is equilib-rium of peripherical regions based on theincrease of inter-regional connections,

“...It is cheaper and environmentally more friendly to exploreother solutions than building new roads...”

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which will inevitably lead to an increase intransportion demand.

The effect of a dislocation of industries inperipheral regions has been studied in theTransport General Plan of Italy. A redistrib-ution of activities has been analysed in orderto have 10 per cent of the demand of thenorthern regions, at present satisfied bynorthern industries, supplied by southernindustries, and 5 per cent of the southerndemand, at present satisfied by the north,captured by local industries (PGT, 1988). Bythe year 2015, while the conventional sce-nario considered a growth of freight trans-port of 130 per cent compared with the 1980data, in the re-equilibrium scenario theincrease was higher (+137 per cent).

Different transport scenariosThe contradiction between the inexorabletransport growth and the environmentallimits has recently led differentgovernments to try to define new mobilitypolicies.

In Germany the Ministry of Transport hasexplored the possible traffic developmentsthrough the year 2010 after unification(Rothengatter, 1994). A conventional sce-nario was compared with an “intervention”scenario that includes capacity restraints inthe road network, road pricing and highercosts for air transport. A significant effect inthe modal split would be achieved in the

“intervention” scenario, but globally themobility demand would still increases by 32per cent (see Table I).

In terms of car pass-km, a 41 per centincrease (compared with 1988) was evaluatedfor the conventional scenario, while asmaller increase, 18 per cent, was calculatedin the intervention scenario (a slightdecrease, –3 per cent, considering only WestGermany).

A similar evaluation has been made in TheNetherlands with the elaboration of a “Euro-pean Renaissance scenario” through theyear 2015 (Figure 1). The increase in passen-ger mobility in this case is lower (+19 percent), while freight growth continues to behigh (+83 per cent). It is important to note,however, that CO2 emissions are consideredto decrease slightly in this scenario due tothe introduction of high efficiency vehicles,bicycles… (CPB, 1992).

Is it possible to invert thetrend to an increase of the roadtransport share?

Environmental problems, like congestion,noise and pollution are more and more influ-encing the conventional transport policies,as recent decisions in Austria, Switzerlandand California demonstrate.

Austria and Switzerland have decided tointroduce limits truck transit through theircountries. As seen in Figure 2 a combinationof rigid constraints on truck transit with anaggressive rail promotion strategy has cre-ated a high rail share in Switzerland (Aeta,1995). In the same figure it is also possible tosee the effects, after 1985, of the Austrianlimitation in truck transit. The recent deci-sion by the Swiss government to improvegreatly the rail corridors (Neue Alpen trans-versale) will increase the share (by 2004 no

Table IVolume of passenger transport in the year 2010in Germany (1988 = 100) for two differentscenarios

Conventional scenario Intervention scenario

Car 141 116Rail 132 203Air 241 206

CO2

Freight transport

Private transport

Road infrastructure

Real price fuel

Economic growth

0 50 100 150 200

Figure 1Scenario for sustainable mobility in The Netherlands 1990-2015 (1990 = 100)

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trucks will be allowed to pass throughSwitzerland, as a result of a 1994 referen-dum).

In Southern California the need toimprove air quality influenced the transportpolicy. In 1992 the Los Angeles County Trans-portation Commission produced a “30 yearsIntegrated Transportation Plan”, in which300 miles of new urban and commuter railswere considered, at a cost of nearly $90 bil-lion. This may be the beginning of a reversalin transport strategies in a region in whichthe complete domination by cars (Los Ange-les had dismantled its 1,600km tramwaynetwork) produces alarming air qualityproblems.

If these examples demonstrate how localenvironmental problems are increasinglyinfluencing mobility policies, the transfor-mation will be much more radical in thefuture as governments react to larger riskssuch as global warming. Even if there arethe first signs of a redirection of transportpolicies, the situation has historically beenvery unbalanced, with a concentration onroad building and a neglect of alternativetransport options.

For example the government of the USAhas spent, between 1958 and 1989, $13 billionon freeways, almost ten times more than onrailways. In western Europe during the1970s and the 1980s the investments in roadshave been three times higher than in rail-ways (Lowe, 1994)

It is important to be aware that the redirec-tion of economic resources in order to obtain

visible results will be enormous. For exam-ple, if in the UK 10 per cent of car tripsshould move to rail, this would represent avalue of 50 billion p-km (passengers-kilome-tres), equivalent to a 125 per cent increase inp-km trains. The costs of upgrading thetrains and to building new lines would be onthe order of 9 billion ecu, that is 0.2 ecu perp-km transferred from car to rail (Transnet,1990).

Road building from a peripheral perspective

Even if a change of attention is emerging inthe most advanced European countries(Sweden has decided to invest for the futurethe same amount of money on road and onrail infrastructures and Germany intends by2010 to invest more in rail than in roads,(Lowe, 1994), the strategy for the peripheralregions seems to reproduce the conventionaldistorted path that is considered unbearablein the other European countries.

For example analysing the funds (19 bil-lion ecu) made available in the 1988-1993period for transport to less developed coun-tries by the European Investment Bank, theinvestments for railways were 40 per centlower than those in roads.

Even more unbalanced is the situation ofthe European Union Cohesion Fund projectson transportation infrastructures. In 1993,three-quarters of the investments have beenallocated to road construction (Table II).

Figures 3 and 4 show, for the period 1985-1992, travellers by transport mode and thepublic investment in public infrastructurein Spain (MOPT, 1993). The correlationbetween the growth in road transport expen-ditures and the growth of road passengers isimpressive.

The same distortion is present in the Sicil-ian situation, that will be described in moredetail with planned investments in roadconstruction for the next decade 50 per centhigher than in railroad lines.

20

15

10

5

0

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

KeyFrance rail Switzerland railAustria rail Switzerland trucAustria truck France truck

Figure 2Cross-Alps goods transport between northernEurope and Italy

Table IIDistribution of the European Union CohesionFund in the transport sector for 1993

Road Rail Ports Airports% % % %

Spain 70 15 2 12Portugal 72 24 4Greece 69 13 3 15Ireland 64 23 9 4

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Proposals for new infrastructure do notalways address serious transport problems.One of the risks of unplanned improvementsis, in fact, to have serious over-capacity. Thisis the case, for example of the Madrid-Barcelona corridor, where a highway, a free-way, normal roads, a rail line, a high-speedrail line and different air connections coex-ist, with the result that the provision is tentimes higher than the real demand (Estevanand Sanz, 1994).

Are new roads really needed?The creation of good connections with thecentre is considered a major point forperipheral regions and this is partly true.

However, some attention should be paid tothe different ways in which this can beachieved.

First of all, in some situations the bestconnection with the centre (especially forfreight) could be given by sea and rail ser-vices. Two cases exemplify the validity ofthis assumption.

In Scotland 92 per cent of the journeys arewithin Scotland and, as a report has under-lined, freight services through a direct ferryservice to the European mainland would bemore beneficial than a transit throughEngland and the Channel Tunnel (McKin-non, 1992).

A similar conclusion can be obtainedanalysing the situation of Sicily, an Italianperipheral region. Also in this case a directconnection with ferries or with combinedtransportation could represent a betteralternative than the proposed newinfrastructures, like the construction of abridge across the Messina Strait, as will bebetter explained in the following paragraph(Figure 5).

According to these considerations, itshould be concluded that at least part of theTrans European Networks proposed by theEuropean Union should be rediscussed inthe context of sustainable transportation.

A second aspect to be considered is the realefficacy of the introduction of reliable trans-port networks on regional development.

Improving the road connection between aperipheral region and the centre will cer-tainly be more effective for competitive than

1985

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

01986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

KeyRoadRailwayAir

Millions of travellers

Figure 3Travellers by transport mode in Spain (1985-1992)

1985

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

01986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

Millions of pesetas

KeyRoadRailwayAir

Figure 4Public investment in transport infrastructures in Spain (1985-1992)

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for marginal industries. As the more com-petitive industries are generally located inthe central regions, an improvement of thetransport facilities will at first favour thepenetration of outside products.

Therefore, paradoxically, the presence ofhigh level transport connections coulddamage the expansion of a regional networkof activities. On the other hand, as it wasalready described with the yogurt case, aregional co-operation will lead to a moresustainable mobility.

Periphery-centre relations: the case ofSicilyThe Sicilian situation is typical of manyperipheral areas in which the public expen-diture has the result of increasing theimports due to the limited internal indus-trial structure.

For example, from an increase of thedemand of goods of the agro-food sector of 1million ecu, only 340,000 ecu will flow to theSicilian system with the creation of 40 newjobs (out of a total of 113 added employmentPRS, (1991)).

This fact has to be considered when dis-cussing the correct balance between theenlargement of the connections with the

continent and the improvement of the inter-nal transport network.

The bridge across the Strait of MessinaAn interesting example of the interactionsbetween the construction of new transporta-tion infrastructures and regional economiesis given by the project of the bridge whichshould connect Sicily with the Calabriaregion in southern Italy. The infrastructurehas been proposed in order to reduce themarginality of these peripheral regions but,the transportation benefits will be minimal,while there are many strong counter indica-tions for the project.

The proposal has been under active discus-sion since 1971 when a public society wascreated in order to develop the technicalstudies and to analyse the economic andfinancial aspects of a connection betweenSicily and Calabria. In 1987 the bridge solu-tion was chosen between different technicaloptions. A final decision on the constructionof the bridge, however, has not yet beentaken, given the very high costs of the infra-structure (on the order of at least 5 billionecu).

This project is a typical example of misal-location of economic resources, not consid-ering the environmental impacts of thestructure which have been specifically criti-cized (Legambiente, 1993).

First of all, the new infrastructure willonly slightly improve the travel conditions,since 75 per cent of the trips have a length ofmore than 500km and that the reduction intime (from 15 minutes to 1 hour) for longjourneys is considered marginal, especiallyfor freight transport (considering also load-ing, unloading). For this reason the intro-duction of the bridge is not considered likelyto have much effect on the flows betweenSicily and the rest of Italy.

The evolution of traffic has been evaluatedby Marchetti (1988), using the UMOT (uni-fied mechanism of travel) model in connec-tion with The Volterra-Lotka equations inorder to grasp long-term trends. Accordingto this analysis, both freight and passengerdemand will not significantly increase inpresence of the bridge, unless completelydifferent high-speed transport systems, likeMaglevs, are considered, in which case thetwo connected towns, Reggio Calabria andMessina, will form a unique metropolitanarea (by the way, the planned bridge allows amaximum speed of 130km/h, much less thanthe velocity considered in the Marchettiproposal).

Genova

Livorno

Spezia

Venezia

Bari

Salerno

Catania

Agrigento

PalermoMessina

427m324m

392m

165m334m

324m

Figure 5Location of the Messina Strait

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A second critical aspect is given by the factthat the actual offer of transport through theferries and aliscafis is much bigger thanactual demand (Figure 6) and could easilymatch the demand forecasted for the next 20-30 years, considering also the fact that 400million ecu will be spent in any case toimprove the sea connections.

A third criticism pointed to the unbal-anced financial effort for this plan, consider-ing the very low quality of the road and rail-way infrastructure in Sicily (only 7 per centof the rail lines is double track and only 48per cent of the lines are electrified).

A completely different “distributed”approach has been explored, with the activa-tion of direct connections between Sicilianand continental harbours. This solutionwould be much more economical and couldgreatly reduce both local and global environ-mental impacts, as was well demonstrated in

a study financed by the National ResearchCouncil (Oikos, 1985).

It would make much more sense to investpart of the money considered for the high-tech bridge in a massive improvement of theSicilian and Calabria railroad networks andharbours. This general upgrading willincrease the accessibility to the continentmuch more than the cathedral in the desertrepresented by the bridge.

Rationalization of combined transportCombined transport represents a very excit-ing alternative to long-range road freighttransport from peripheral areas. In recentyears it has grown rapidly in Sicily. But whatis even more interesting, is the large dispar-ity between the void transport units arrivingin Sicily and the leaving the island (Figure7). This fact shows the great potential, in acontext of a growing local economic develop-ment, of a more rational use of this solutionto export Sicilian goods.

In 1994 1,5 million tons travelled usingcombined transport vectors. Of this quantity79 per cent of the transport units leaving theisland were void, while there was only 12 percent of incoming units (FS, 1995).

Internal connectionsThe Sicilian road situation can be describedas a network of over-sized main routes withsome very evident bottlenecks (beginningwith the missing part of the Palermo-Messina freeway).

The internal less important roads are onthe contrary not adequate. The density ofthese municipal roads is less than half theaverage Italian value.

This lack of connections has been repre-sented by the image of an “internal lake”

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

01987 2016 1987

Potential

KeyPassengersTrucksCars

Millions

Figure 6Amount of transport by ferries through theMessina Strait

1987

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ThousandsKey

Void arrivalsFull arrivalsVoid departuresFull departures

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Figure 7Combined transport units moved from/to Sicily

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due to the poor accessibility in the centralpart of the island. This weakness representsa great obstacle both to the creation of aregional industrial co-operation and to thedevelopment of tourist activities.

This situation is likely to change verymuch. Analysing the proposed investmentscontained in the Regional Transport Plan,the roads of lower importance will receiveonly one-third of the total road finance (PRT,1991).

On the other hand, the combination ofpolitical and mafia interests has lead, in thepast, to the construction of roads, viaducts,and tunnels, many of which are not needed.It is no surprise that the density of highwaysand roads per square kilometre in Sicily isslightly higher than the Italian average.

The same result is obtained by the analysisof the transit data in different highways ofnorth and south Italy in 1994 (Table III). Thedaily transit per km in Sicilian highways isless than half of the Italian average.

Attention should of course be paid in orderto improve internal mobility, but whatever ischosen must be sustainable.

An example of two quite different solu-tions of a transport problem is given by theinadequate connection between the Siciliantowns of Palermo and Agrigento (116km),guaranteed at present by an uncomfortablestate road and a single track rail.

According to the regional governmentprogrammes, a completely new four-laneroad should be built (partly passing throughan ecologically sensitive territory) with acost of 500 million ecu. Moreover, a new air-port should be added, with a location in theAgrigento area (35 million ecu).

A complete different approach, proposedby the Rail Company, is based on the upgrad-ing of the existing rail line that could con-nect Agrigento directly with the PalermoAirport (100 million ecu) and on specificinterventions in the road bottlenecks. Thischoice would be cheaper and give correctmobility answers in an environmentallysustainable way.

Conclusions

Conventional economic growth stimulatesfurther demand for transportation infra-structure, which provides the pretext forfurther infrastructure expansion. This isparticularly true for the construction of newroads, the sector in which the largerincreases in mobility occur and that willinduce environmental impacts that will lastfor many decades.

This vicious circle should be interruptedand a strong effort should be made in orderto decouple economic development fromtransport growth.

If this target is to be achieved, all thestrategic decisions involving different sec-tors (location of new industries, urban plan-ning, construction of new infrastructures)should pass through an environmentalassessment impact including specifically theissue of the contribution to global warming.

For peripheral regions the transport poli-cies should improve the possibility of a self-centred development. Regarding the connec-tions with the central areas a preference,when possible, should be given to the sea orrail transport.

References and further readingAeta (1995), Combined Transport: The Sustain-

able Mode for European Goods transport,Austrian Environmental Transport Associa-tion/VCO, Wien

Böge S. (1995), “The well travelled yoghurt pot:lessons for new freight transport policies andregional production”, World Transport Policy& Practice, Vol. 1 No. 1.

CPB (1992), Transport in The Netherlands up to2015: A Scenario Approach, Central Planbu-reau, working paper No. 45, The Hague,P11MI.

Estevan A. and Sanz A. (1994), Hacia la Reconver-sion Ecologica del Transporte en Espana,Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes yMedio Ambiente, Madrid.

FS (1995), Personal communication from Fer-rovie dello Stato, Compartimento diPalermo.

Greenpeace (1995), Missing Greenlinks, Green-peace Switzerland, Zurich.

Holzapfel, H. (1995), “Potential forms of regionaleconomic co-operation to reduce goods trans-port”, World Transport Policy & Practice, Vol. 1 No. 2.

Legambiente (1993), Osservazioni allo Studio diImpatto Ambientale Relativo al Progetto diMassima del Ponte Sullo Stretto di Messina,Legambiente, Roma.

Table IIINumber of vehicles (thousands) travelling daily in 1994 in differentsegments of Italian highways

North Italy SicilyTorino-Milano Milano-Brescia Messina-Catania Messina-Palermo

85 196 50 38

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Lowe, M. (1994), Back on Track: The Global RailRevival, Worldwatch Institute, Washington,DC.

Marchetti, C. (1988), Building Bridges andTunnels: The Effect on the Evolution ofTraffic, SR-88-01, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

McKinnon, A. (1992), “Manufacturing in aperipheral area”, International Journal ofLogistic Management, No. 3.

MOPT (1993), Los transportes y las Comunica-ciones, Anuario 1992, Institute for the Studiesof Transport and Communications, Ministryof Public Works and Transports, Madrid.

Oikos (1985), Sviluppo di Ipotesi Previsionali eProgettuali di Assetti Infrastrutturali e diServizi di Trasporto Coerenti con l’EvoluzioneTerritoriale del Sistema Produttivo e conl’Assetto Urbano nelle Aree Bolognese e delloStretto di Messina, Progetto FinalizzatoTrasporti, National Research Council, Rome.

Pfeiderer, R. and Dietrich M. (1995), “New roadsgenerate new traffic”, World Transport Pol-icy & Practice, Vol. 1 No. 1.

PGT (1988), “Il trasporto merci e l’economiaitaliana”, Piano Generale dei Trasporti,Roma.

PRS (1991), Piano Regionale di Sviluppo, RegioneSiciliana, Palermo.

PRT (1991), Piano Regionale dei Trasporti,Relazione generale, Regione Siciliana.

Rietveld, P. (1994), “Spatial economic impacts oftransport infrastructure supply”, Trans-portation Research, Vol. 28A No. 4.

Rothengatter, W. (1994), “Transport demanddevelopment in Germany after the unifica-tion”, Transportation Research, Vol 28 No. 6.

Sactra (1994), Trunk Roads and the Generation ofTraffic, The Standing Advisory Committeeon Trunk Road Assessment, Department ofTransport, London.

Transnet (1990), Energy Transport and Environ-ment, Calvert’s Press, London.

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