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Assessing the Resilience of Windhoek

on the road to re-defining sustainability

Mrs Sophia van Greunen Spacestudio Architects Namibia phia.spacestudio@gmail.com

Abstract As architects we are constantly searching for new technologies and updated practises to create “Sustainable” buildings. Despite continuous efforts to minimise our impact on the environment and to reverse the effects of climate change, our fast-changing world requires an updated definition of “Sustainability”. The prospects of future generations are no longer dependant only on our ability to successfully balance our ecosystems; social, natural & economic; but how adaptable we are to inevitable change. This “ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for Self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change” is referred to as Resilience by Surjan et al (2011:19). It has become increasingly important for societies to constantly evaluate their impact on the environment. A truly sustainable society would learn from such evaluations, adapt successfully and remain resilient for many generations to come. The study investigates the capital of Namibia; one of the most arid countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the youngest independent state on the continent. It considers all the main systems and their relationships and shows how a dynamic ecosystem like a city might be assessed for Resilience. The study will show that Resilience requires a shift in our perceptions and eventually depends largely on our ability to learn from the current state of our cities. The study will also show how valuable resilience assessment can be in re-defining our understanding of “Sustainability”. Keywords: Sustainability, Resilience, Urban landscapes, Systemic thinking, Self-organisation

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1. Introduction

Society sure has evolved since Capra (1996:4) identified the “great challenge of our time” as the creation of “sustainable communities, i.e. social and cultural environments in which we can satisfy our needs and aspirations without diminishing the chances of future generations”. In 2008 the percentage of urban population to total world population reached 50% and has since continued to increase. As architects we are constantly searching for new technologies and updated practises to create “Sustainable” buildings. Despite continuous efforts to minimise our impact on the environment and to reverse the effects of climate change, our fast-changing world requires an updated definition of “Sustainability”. The prospects of future generations are no longer dependant only on our ability to successfully balance our ecosystems; social, natural & economic, but how adaptable we are to inevitable change.

Figure 1: Windhoek the capital of Namibia

2. Re-defining Sustainability

This “ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for Self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change” is referred to as Resilience by Surjan et al (2011:19) who says that Resilience was first talked about “in the 1970’s by ecologists who were trying to define ecosystems which gain stability even after disturbance”. Since then the term has been widely researched, published and discussed by scientists, architects and practitioners alike. The Resilience Alliance, a leading research organisation established in 2009, cited in Surjan et al (2011:19), contemplates that “resilience has three defining characteristics: The amount of change a system can undergo and still retain the same controls on function and structure; the degree the system is capable of self-organisation; the ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation” James Lovelock presented his first theories as early as 1969 of our living earth as a self-regulating system. Its only more recently it seems that people are beginning to appreciate the significance of Daisyworld’s “remarkably resilient” self-regulation under such “severe disturbances” Capra (1996:110). The term Sustainability is outdated and creating sustainable communities in the original sense of the phrase is no longer relevant. Our fast-growing ever-changing ecosystems require a more holistic approach. It has become increasingly important for societies to constantly evaluate their impact on the environment. Resilience assessment is central in re-defining our understanding of “Sustainability”.

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3. Systems Thinking for Resilience Resilience assessment also highlights unsustainable practices across social, natural & economic scales and shows how interdependent the components of our systems are. “The more we study the major problems of our time, the more we come to realize that they cannot be understood in isolation. They are systemic problems, which mean that they are interconnected and interdependent” Capra (1996:3). This type of systems thinking is crucial in understanding Sustainability and assessing Resilience. Assessing or Planning for resilience can only commence after the dynamics of a system, in this case Windhoek, are fully understood. By identifying variables at each level of a system’s operation, one could define possible thresholds and triggers; in order to plan for expected change or to adapt successfully to unanticipated change.

4. The Dynamic Urban Ecosystem of Windhoek

Namibia is a vast, arid country situated on the south-west coast of Africa and home to one of the oldest deserts in the world. The 2011 Namibia Population and Housing Census shows that the overall Namibian population has increased gradually since 1921; “rising from about one-quarter million persons in early 1921 through 1.8 million persons in early 2001 to 2.1 million in 2011”, distributed more or less equally between genders. The first step in assessing for resilience lies in understanding the sociological, environmental/ecological and economic systems of the focal system.

Figure 2: Gender distribution

4.1. Social Systems The non-Western view of self can be described as interdependent, located within a wider social context. Boundaries between individuals are less sharply drawn as individuals are “more dependent on group characteristics” (Madanipour, 2003:20). Namibians have been resilient throughout their adverse history due exactly to this co-dependence and Systemic Thinking. In 1884 Namibia, then South West Africa was proclaimed a German Protectorate; which preceded a period of fatal rinderpest epidemics (cattle plague) and tribal wars. This was followed by further suppression under the South African apartheid administration until Independence in 1990. After more than a century of foreign occupation Namibia is emerging as a young, fast developing country with a population density of a mere 2.5 people per km². Windhoek was established as the capital of Namibia in 1890. It is situated in the cool highland savannah nestled in a valley between three mountain ranges. At a mere 22 years since independence from South Africa, Windhoek is developing at an alarming rate. According to the 2011 census 42% of Namibians live in urban areas compared to a mere 28% in 1991, see figure 3. People flock to the capital for better employment and education opportunities. Today Windhoek and its urban surrounds are called home by 16% of the country’s population while it comprises 4.5% of the country’s overall surface area.

Figure 3: comparing urban population of Namibia in 1991(top) with 2011(bottom)

Our urban areas are becoming overpopulated with policy makers and authorities struggling to keep up with ever increasing social and infrastructure demands, while rural immigrants to the City of Windhoek feel like transient residents rather than citizens, no responsibility for their surroundingsto their rural origins and send the majority of their income home to invest in their farmlands and to support family members. Informreluctant to invest in urban areas, financially or otherwise. Niikondo (2010:3) indentifies 5 major reasons why immigrants to urban areas don’t occupy formal or permanent houses:

• Having no entitlement

• No purchasing power or capital available to make one time housing investments;

• The cultural and traditional tendency of accumulating funds to invest in their communal lands;

• The low cost associated with staying in temporary dwellings on unthe cost of living in formalized areas, and

• Lack of understanding of urban life and its cost

These reasons make it very difficult to assist or to administer the constant expansion of Windhoek’s informal settlements.

Figure 4: the informal settlements to the north of Windhoek

Besides the obvious social struggles like lack of access to basic services &unemployment, malnutrition and poverty, the typical Namibian urban dweller faces an

Figure 3: comparing urban population of Namibia in 1991(top) with 2011(bottom)

Our urban areas are becoming overpopulated with policy makers and authorities struggling to keep up with ever increasing social and infrastructure demands, while rural immigrants to the

feel like transient residents rather than citizens, and as a consequence take no responsibility for their surroundings (Niikondo 2010:1). These immigrants retain strong ties to their rural origins and send the majority of their income home to invest in their farmlands and to support family members. Informal settlements continue to grow while residents are reluctant to invest in urban areas, financially or otherwise. Niikondo (2010:3) indentifies 5 major reasons why immigrants to urban areas don’t occupy formal or permanent houses:

Having no entitlement rights;

No purchasing power or capital available to make one time housing investments;

The cultural and traditional tendency of accumulating funds to invest in their communal lands;

The low cost associated with staying in temporary dwellings on unthe cost of living in formalized areas, and

Lack of understanding of urban life and its cost

These reasons make it very difficult to assist or to administer the constant expansion of Windhoek’s informal settlements.

4: the informal settlements to the north of Windhoek

Besides the obvious social struggles like lack of access to basic services &unemployment, malnutrition and poverty, the typical Namibian urban dweller faces an

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Figure 3: comparing urban population of Namibia in 1991(top) with 2011(bottom)

Our urban areas are becoming overpopulated with policy makers and authorities struggling to keep up with ever increasing social and infrastructure demands, while rural immigrants to the

and as a consequence take (Niikondo 2010:1). These immigrants retain strong ties

to their rural origins and send the majority of their income home to invest in their farmlands al settlements continue to grow while residents are

reluctant to invest in urban areas, financially or otherwise. Niikondo (2010:3) indentifies 5 major reasons why immigrants to urban areas don’t occupy formal or permanent houses:

No purchasing power or capital available to make one time housing investments;

The cultural and traditional tendency of accumulating funds to invest in their

The low cost associated with staying in temporary dwellings on un-serviced land vs.

These reasons make it very difficult to assist or to administer the constant expansion of

Besides the obvious social struggles like lack of access to basic services & education, HIV, unemployment, malnutrition and poverty, the typical Namibian urban dweller faces an

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additional challenge: geographic and social segregation. Most South African cities still bear the mark of Apartheid planning; with large sectors of society being geographically isolated from job opportunities and amenities. Windhoek is one such city. The majority of urban dwellers occupy “shacks” in informal settlements on the outskirts of town (figure 4). Katutura, meaning “the place we do not want”, was established through the forced removal of its inhabitants from the old location. In December 1959 the first 400 families were moved to their new homes (Bravenboer 2004:185). Figure 5 compares the average population density of Namibia, the average density of Windhoek and the current population density in Central Katutura. It is clear that there are massive social & geographical divides at play. These social and cultural systems have to be taken into consideration when assessing for resilience.

Figure 5: population densities for different suburbs in Windhoek

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Figure 6: The City of Windhoek nestled between three mountain ranges. Note the fine grain of the informal settlements to the north and the industrial area’s proximity to the Klein Windhoek River and the general Katutura area. Also note the position of the old location in relation to the CBD.

4.2 Ecological/Environmental Systems Systemic thinking requires consideration of all sub-systems when analysing our ecosystems for resilience. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005: iii) highlights the direct link between people, biodiversity and natural ecosystems. The assessment argues that “changing human conditions drive, both directly and indirectly, changes in biodiversity, changes in ecosystems, and ultimately changes in the services ecosystems provide.” It is a known fact that increases in population and settlement densities can be detrimental to biological; species and habitat diversity if not properly managed. A biodiversity inventory, commissioned by the City of Windhoek in 2009 regards the entire Windhoek Valley as an area with a high conservation status under “tremendous pressure from development”. The study summarises sensitive areas and practices which threaten Windhoek’s biological diversity:

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• Lack of conservation status and encroaching developments on the Windhoek Riverine Thickets, a habitat which according to the inventory “provides many ecosystem services” and functions as a network of links between the various habitats around the Windhoek area.

• Over clearing of areas leading to habitat destruction and speeding up water run-off; thus prohibiting infiltration as well as causing soil erosion.

• The urgent conservation of the extremely sensitive Windhoek underground aquifer, which can store water over vast amounts of time while surface water evaporates much faster than it can be replenished

• Threats to our open water habitats (including birds and aquatic species) due to pollution resulting from industrial and urban waste, alien aquatic species and agricultural management practices

• Alien plant species which place heavy burdens on the city’s water resources

• Proposed developments and heavy industry to the north of the City, around the alluvial plains of the Klein Windhoek River, “pose a significant risk to the integrity of the Klein Windhoek River Habitat”.

• The diversion and canalisation of riverbeds causing acceleration of water during rainy seasons which increase the risk of flooding downstream.

• Lack of access to electricity and fuel-efficient cook stoves leading to deforestation in the areas around informal settlements specifically the Acacia erioloba, Camel thorn, which are a relatively slow growing protected species.

• Over-harvesting and selling the pods of the Camel thorn tree, to feed livestock

• Sand harvesting leading to “significant loss of Camel thorn trees, destruction of important riverine habitat, making the area susceptible to alien invasive species taking over and reducing the river’s function as a filter and underground water reservoir”.

• Lack of environmental research, lack of awareness under policy makers and insufficient monitoring of the city’s natural resources and systems.

The study also identifies various plant and animal species at risk, under categories of endemic, protected and highly threatened; due to habitat destruction in and around the city. Figure 7 shows exactly how significant a role biodiversity plays in any ecosystem. These interactions can be translated from a local to a regional and international scale.

Figure 7: the role of biodiversity in a ecosystem (adapted from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005: iii)

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The figure shows a direct co-dependent relationship between social systems on the one hand and economic & political systems on the other. These economic and political systems are viewed as indirect drivers which can lead to changes in drivers which directly influence biodiversity. The figure shows that biodiversity not only has a direct influence on human well-being but also affects, directly or indirectly, the larger natural system’s own ability to regulate its nested systems, which in turn influence the collective resilience of the entire ecosystem.

4.3. Economic & Political Systems It is important to remember that systems interaction can take place at more than one scale and can cross scales. An international demand for beef for instance, may lead to regional price hikes which in turn could lead to exploitation of communities and resources at local level. This in turn could have an adverse effect on the ecosystem in terms of overgrazing, pest control and changes in land use which are viewed as direct drivers of changes to biodiversity on a local, regional and possibly international scale. Namibia relies on neighbouring South Africa for commodities. From building materials to fresh produce & clothes, the cost of items in Namibia is determined by the South African market. Furthermore, The Namibian Dollar is linked to the South African Rand and is subject to the same exchange rates. Consequently political unrest or Labour strikes in South Africa have an adverse effect on our economic and social systems. The Namibian economy is driven by the primary sectors of mining, wildlife and tourism, fishing and to a lesser extent; agriculture. Another large contributor to the country’s economy is its close historic ties with neighbouring Angola. Contrary to South African policies, Angolans don’t need visas to enter Namibia for leisure or tourism. As a result, Windhoek has more recently become a sought after destination for medical procedures or check-ups and shopping sprees. This influx of US Dollars has also had an indirect effect on the property market. New money introduced into the economy creates a high demand in the residential sector, in addition to the dwindling supply of new serviced land it has caused prices to grow consistently throughout the economic recession. The property prices continue to rise in Windhoek while the rest of the world is only starting to recover from massive crashes in the market. For an architect this might seem like a positive growth, the reality however is that housing shortages are worse than ever; resulting in ever-increasing property prices and ever-widening social and geographical divides. The reliance on neighbouring countries also means that the economic resilience of Namibia is largely dependent on others and not exclusively on the interaction of its own systems. Namibia’s unsustainable governance structure is also a key indicator of the system’s overall resilience. Central Government is divided into a multitude of Ministries. The scope of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water & Forestry for instance would include plant species but not animal species while the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources would be interested in fish but not necessarily the entire water system. The Ministry of Environment and Tourism focuses solely on animal resources with no directive towards water, plants or land use. The Ministry of Works and Transport may decide to plan a development in the centre of a nature reserve or demolish a building with national heritage status to extend a clinic. The list of separate ministries goes on and on.

5. Mapping for Resilience Now that the focal system, Windhoek, has been described in terms of its ecological/environmental, social and economic components one can move on to mapping (summarising) the system’s dynamics in order to assess for Resilience. The focal system is connected to various larger- and smaller scale systems. It has already been shown that changes in external systems could have a direct influence on the resilience and functioning of the focal system. In the same instance the system might be vulnerable to changes from

within. Socio-ecological systems also undergo change at varying intervals over time indicating changes across multiple space and time scales. Figure 8 summarizes the major systems operating at scales directly above and below the focal system, it identifies critical slow- and fast changing variables which could either trigger abrupt change or interact with other system variables causing other thresholds to be crossed.

Figure 8: Windhoek as a socio

The Resilience Alliance Whereas Specified Resilience threshold effects, leading to undesirable and perhaps irreveGeneral Resilience applies to the system as a whole and does not consider any particular kind of disturbance or any particular aspect of the system that might be affected. Studying the following general resilience attribute 5.1. Diversity – Low diversity or trends in diversity are important indicators of how an overall system might respond to shocknecessary skills to change jobs, for whatever reason necessary, resulting in exaggerated dependence on a specific sector which may be at risk, or in some cases, sticking out an unfavourable situation which could be detrimental to the individual’s social and psychologiwellbeing. A cattle farmer’s management of carrying capacity, stocking rates and sustainable grazing systems on the other hand, refer to positive trends in diversity. More flexible livestock herds and progressive destocking would increase a farmer’s drought.

5.2. Reserves – Loss of reserves, both ecological and social, lead to a loss of resilience. Building up fodder reserves of various diverse species for instance would see the aforementioned farmer and his nucleus

5.3. Tightness of feedbacks and modularityinteraction between systems at various levels could result in a slower response to signals of change. A tightly connected system on the otdisease or the results of bad management practices more rapidly. A loosely connected system with a high degree of interaction between components would be far more capable of re-organisation in response to changes e Specified Resilience questions resilience problems and their social and environmental impacts (figure 9) is an important step in

ecological systems also undergo change at varying intervals over time indicating changes across multiple space and time scales. Figure 8 summarizes the major systems operating at scales directly above and below the focal system, it identifies critical

and fast changing variables which could either trigger abrupt change or interact with other system variables causing other thresholds to be crossed.

Figure 8: Windhoek as a socio-ecological system operating at multiple space and

The Resilience Alliance (2010:34) distinguishes between Specified- and Whereas Specified Resilience “relates to the controlling variables that are likely to have threshold effects, leading to undesirable and perhaps irreversible changes of system state”General Resilience applies to the system as a whole and does not consider any particular kind of disturbance or any particular aspect of the system that might be affected. Studying the following general resilience attributes allows us to highlight vulnerable sections of the system:

Low diversity or trends in diversity are important indicators of how an overall system might respond to shock. The average urban Namibian for instance might lack the

ills to change jobs, for whatever reason necessary, resulting in exaggerated dependence on a specific sector which may be at risk, or in some cases, sticking out an unfavourable situation which could be detrimental to the individual’s social and psychologiwellbeing. A cattle farmer’s management of carrying capacity, stocking rates and sustainable grazing systems on the other hand, refer to positive trends in diversity. More flexible livestock herds and progressive destocking would increase a farmer’s resilience to periods of fatal

Loss of reserves, both ecological and social, lead to a loss of resilience. Building up fodder reserves of various diverse species for instance would see the aforementioned farmer and his nucleus herd through difficult times.

5.3. Tightness of feedbacks and modularity – procedural requirements and insufficient interaction between systems at various levels could result in a slower response to signals of change. A tightly connected system on the other hand could transmit some shocks like disease or the results of bad management practices more rapidly. A loosely connected system with a high degree of interaction between components would be far more capable of

organisation in response to changes elsewhere in the system.

Specified Resilience questions resilience “of what, to what?” Identifying the city’s current main social and environmental impacts (figure 9) is an important step in

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ecological systems also undergo change at varying intervals over time indicating changes across multiple space and time scales. Figure 8 summarizes the major systems operating at scales directly above and below the focal system, it identifies critical

and fast changing variables which could either trigger abrupt change or interact with

ecological system operating at multiple space and time scales

and General Resilience. “relates to the controlling variables that are likely to have

rsible changes of system state”, General Resilience applies to the system as a whole and does not consider any particular kind of disturbance or any particular aspect of the system that might be affected. Studying the

s allows us to highlight vulnerable sections of the system:

Low diversity or trends in diversity are important indicators of how an overall The average urban Namibian for instance might lack the

ills to change jobs, for whatever reason necessary, resulting in exaggerated dependence on a specific sector which may be at risk, or in some cases, sticking out an unfavourable situation which could be detrimental to the individual’s social and psychological wellbeing. A cattle farmer’s management of carrying capacity, stocking rates and sustainable grazing systems on the other hand, refer to positive trends in diversity. More flexible livestock

resilience to periods of fatal

Loss of reserves, both ecological and social, lead to a loss of resilience. Building up fodder reserves of various diverse species for instance would see the

procedural requirements and insufficient interaction between systems at various levels could result in a slower response to signals of

her hand could transmit some shocks like disease or the results of bad management practices more rapidly. A loosely connected system with a high degree of interaction between components would be far more capable of

Identifying the city’s current main social and environmental impacts (figure 9) is an important step in

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mapping for resilience. It is important to note how these main issues and their impacts also cascade into each other across multiple space and time scales.

Figure 9: environmental and social impacts of the main issues identified The final step in mapping for resilience is to investigate control systems. The Resilience Alliance (2010:36) refers to “dynamic entities that include a variety of institutions and stakeholders and involve multiple sectors and scales. How these individuals, organisations, rules and traditions interact determines how people make decisions, share power and exercise responsibility”. More often than not formal governance and centralised decision-making is less effective at local levels where people have a better understanding of smaller nested systems due to their proximity to and use of resources.

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“The structural characteristics of a given network can influence system dynamics and management outcomes by for example, facilitating or impeding processes such as information sharing, access to resources and collaboration opportunities” (The Resilience Alliance 2010:40). Figure 10 shows a map of the social network in Windhoek. Various main actors and their relationships to other actors and sub-systems are identified.

Figure 10: mapping social networks among stakeholders Professionals like architects for instance, are well connected to the suburban middle class but not directly to local government which usually makes important decisions affecting our profession directly. Figure 10 also shows how central government is divided into separate ministries with no active relationships and isolated groups like the urban poor and the suburban middle class are also not conducive to the resilience of the overall system.

6. Conclusion and Recommendations

After mapping the system it becomes clear which areas pose major threats to our Resilience and overall Sustainability. Resilience assessment is a proposed start towards a more sustainable city. The major challenge lies in making recommendations and coming up with strategies based on the findings of the assessment. It is important that all stakeholders identified in Figure 10 become involved in this process of turning recommendations into workable strategies which can be implemented in the long term. Under Specified Resilience for instance; strategies should be made to address the full extent of impacts identified in figure 9 and to introduce precautionary measures against the social and natural factors identified in figure 8. In Windhoek’s case a few general recommendations for higher resilience, for example, would be to:

• foster biological, economic and cultural diversity;

• bridge the massive social & geographical divides;

• address the explicit lack of education and housing;

• kerb social problems like poverty, HIV, violence, racism and prejudice;

• reduce the economy’s reliance on external factors;

• promote a holistic approach to governance;

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• promote social networks which would encourage collaborative objectives and outcomes;

• promote sustainable practices and environmental awareness Exact strategies and implementation however; goes beyond the scope of assessment. Much like an ecosystem; assessing resilience is a complicated, dynamic an ongoing process. As architects we have to embrace these concepts of Resilience and systems thinking and add them to our definitions of Sustainability. In the end Sustainability requires a shift in our perceptions and eventually depends largely on our ability to learn from the current state of our cities and to adapt to inevitable change. Resilience assessment is therefore invaluable in re-defining our understanding of “Sustainability”. Fifteen years later Capra’s sentiments are truer than ever: “There are solutions to the major problems of our time; some of them even simple. But they require a radical shift in our perceptions, our thinking, our values”. Capra (1996:4)

References Bravenboer, B. 2004: Windhoek – Capital of Namibia. Windhoek: Gamsberg Macmillan Publishers (Pty) Ltd Capra, F. 1996: The Web of Life – A New Synthesis of Mind and Matter. London: HarperCollins Publishers City of Windhoek Biodiversity Inventory. 2009. Compiled by Enviro Dynamics (Pty) Ltd, Windhoek Madanipour, A. 2003: Public and Private Spaces of the City. New York: Routledge. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. National Planning Commission. 2011: Namibia 2011 Population and Housing Census Preliminary Results Niikondo, A. 2010: Migrants to Cities and Towns in Namibia: What their Interests are? Polytechnic of Namibia http://ir.polytechnic.edu.na/bitstream/10628/249/1/Niikondo.%20Migrants%20to%20cities%20and%20towns%20in%20Namibia.pdf downloaded 10 October 2012 Resilience Alliance. 2010: Assessing resilience in social-ecological systems: Workbook for practitioners. Version 2.0 Surjan, A; Sharma, A and Shaw, R. 2011: Climate and Disaster Resilience in Cities. Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.