Assessing the Costs of Disasters on Jamaica’s Infrastructure
Transcript of Assessing the Costs of Disasters on Jamaica’s Infrastructure
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Assessing the Costs of Disasters on Jamaica’s Infrastructure: Evidence
from the Damage and Loss Assessment by the Planning Institute of Jamaica
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Jamaica’s Vulnerability to Natural Hazards
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Methodology
ECLAC Damage and Loss (DALA) Methodology Damage (replacement cost) Loss Damage + Loss = Total Cost Secondary effects also considered
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Some Definitions:
Damage: monetary value of partial or total damage to fixed assets, capital and inventories of finished and semi-finished goods, raw materials and spare parts that occur concurrently as a direct consequences of the natural phenomenon causing a disaster.
Losses:The effect on flows of goods that will not be produced and services that will not be provided after a disaster.
Secondary effects: The impact on the overall performance of the economy, as measured through the most significant macro-economic variables.
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Disasters - Some Recent Trends
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Selected natural disasters in Jamaica and their impact
EVENTYear Category Cost ($JB) Impact
(% GDP)Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 2.52 0.8May/June Flood Rains 2002 - 2.47 0.7
Hurricane Charley 2004 4 0.44 0.02Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 36.9 8.0 Hurricanes Dennis &Emily
2005 4 5. 98 1.2
Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 3.6 0.7Hurricane Dean 2007 4 23.8 3.4Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 15.5 2.0Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 20.6 1.9
Total 111.81
Source: Compiled by the PIOJ with data from various agencies
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The frequency of disaster has been increasing
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1940 -1950
1951 -1960
1961 -1970
1971 -1981
1981 -1990
1991 -2000
2001 -2010
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Intensity of Storm events has been increasing
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Hurricane GilbertHurricane MichelleHurricane CharleyHurricane Ivan Hurricanes Dennis/Emily
Hurricane WilmaHurricane Dean
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Cost of Disasters (2001-2010)
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Hurricane Michelle
May/June Flood Rains
Hurricane Charley
Hurricane Ivan
Hurricanes Dennis &
Emily
Hurricane Wilma
Hurricane Dean
Tropical Storm Gustav
Tropical Storm Nicole
Linear ()
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Costs relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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Hurricane Michelle -
May/June Rains
Hurricane Ivan
Hurricanes Dennis/Emily
Hurricane Wilma
Hurricane Dean
Tropical Storm Gustav
Tropical Storm Nicole
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IMPACT ON THE INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR
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Infrastructure - definition
Systems and assets, whether physical or virtual the destruction of which would have debilitating impact on national economic security, national public health or safety, or a combination of both (Paromak 2005)
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Based on the Damage and Loss (DALA) methodology developed by ECLAC Infrastructure includes:
Transport and Communications – road network and ground transport, water and air transport infrastructure, telecommunications, coastal infrastructure
Drinking Water and Sanitation – drinking water supply systems, waste water disposal systems, solid waste disposal systems
Energy – electricity, petroleum sub-sectors
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Characteristics of key Infrastructure
Sub-sector Some Characteristics
Transport •Jamaica has 21000 kilometres of roads. This includes freeways, primary roads (a), secondary roads (b), parochial roads and unclassified road. •The National Works Agency has a total of 736 bridges in its database of various types including: steel beams; arch; concrete girders; and truss.
Energy The energy infrastructure comprises:•Four main power lines located at St. Andrew – Rockfort; Kingston -- Hunts Bay; St. Catherine -- Old Harbour Bay; St. James – Bogue, all are coastal locations. •Eight hydro-electric plants located at St. Elizabeth – Maggoty; St. Ann -- Upper White River; St. Ann -- Lower White River; St. Ann -- Roaring River; Trelawny -- Rio Beuno A; Trelawny -- Rio Bueno B; St. Andrew -- Rams Horn; St. Andrew -- Constant Spring;•one wind farm; St. Elizabeth -- Munro Wind Farm
Water Supply Facilities
•Water Supply infrastructure water storage plants e.g. Mona Reservoir, Water treatment plants e. Mona Treatment Plant, Water supply facilities e.g.Yallahs Pipeline Scheme; pumping stations, and sewerage treatment plants
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Some Factors Contributing to Infrastructure Damage
Age of infrastructureDesign StandardsLocationState of Repairs/MaintenanceEnvironmental Conditions
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Cost of Disasters by Sector (2001 – 2010)
Social Sector
Infrastructure
Eonomic Sectors
Environment
Emergency Operations
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Costs to the Infrastructure Sector
H. Michelle 01
May/June Rains 02
H Ivan 04
H. Dennis/Emily 05
H Wilma 05
H Dean 07
TC Gustav 08
TC Niole 10
Infrastructure
Water & Sewerage 96 78.7 687.7 400 47.4 202 725 270 2506.8
Telecom 6.9 4.46 1535.3 42 30 197.68 136.9 1953.24
Transport 1577.5 1491.8 3225.9 4271.89 3199 2047.3 11530 17041.8 44385.19
Energy & Electricity 6.4 1.2 1397.9 70 1073.25 108 92.4 2749.15
Ports 120.1 11.56 1.8 133.46
TOTAL 51727.84
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Costs to the Infrastructure Sector
Total costs based on analysis of 9 events was estimated at $ 111.37 b
Of this, the infrastructure sector accounted for $51.7b or 46 % of the overall costs. At $44.4b, the transport sub-sector (roads and bridges) bore the brunt (86%) of these costs.
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Costs to the Infrastructure Sector
5% 4%
86%
5% 0%0%
Water & Sewerage
Telecommunication
Transport
Energy & Electricity
Airports
Ports
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Secondary Effects
Impact of GDP Inflation Debt Stock Budget Revenue Employment BOP
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Case Studies
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Hurricanes Dennis/Emily, 2005
Hurricanes Dennis and Emily occurred within two weeks of each other
Total damage was estimated at $5 976.91 million or US$96.87 million. This is equivalent to 1.2 per cent of the previous year’s GDP.
Infrastructure was the most affected area with damage and losses of $4 826.05 million
Damage to Transport – roads and bridges accounted for $4 271.89 million, or 71.5 per cent of the total cost.
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Tropical Storm Nicole
Total damage was estimated at $18 089.0 million of which Infrastructure accounted for 88.0 per cent of the total cost. Damage to main roads and bridges was estimated at $14 billion of which $1.42 billion represented the preliminary cost to reopen blocked roads.
A total of 543 main roads were impacted with St. Thomas accounting for $1,542.2 million or 11 per cent of the total cost of the damage.
Another $1.9 billion was allocated to river training Cleaning and reconstruction of retaining walls of the Sandy Gully bridge accounted for 32.7 per cent (J$4.6 billion) of the total cost of damage to the road infrastructure.
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Tropical Storm Nicole
Figure 1: Sectoral Cost of Damage and Losses - Tropical Storm Nicole
Social7.98% Productive
3.71%
Infrastructure88.06%
Emergency Operations
0.24%
Environment0.01%
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