Assessing population change in Victoria
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Assessing population change in Victoria Presentation to Victorian Transport Summit by Jeremy Reynolds, Manager, Demographic Research, DPCD 3 rd October 2012
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Jeremy Reynolds, Managing Director, Demographic Research, from Department of Planning & Community Development, Victoria has presented at the Victorian Transport Summit. If you would like more information about the conference, please visit the website: http://www.statetransportevents.com.au/transport-conference/vic-transport-infrastructure
Transcript of Assessing population change in Victoria
Assessing population change in Victoria
Presentation to Victorian Transport Summit
by Jeremy Reynolds, Manager, Demographic Research, DPCD
3rd October 2012
People and place
The recent high level of population growth of Victoria
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1836 1886 1936 1986
Persons
1852
70,800
1888
53,600
1916
-19,800
1919
65,800
1940
31,800
1960
76,900
2008
99,700
The recent high level of population growth of Australia
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1788 1838 1888 1938 1988
Persons
1841
30,600
1855
98,300
1883
117,700
1916
-51,500
1919
222,700
1940
72,700
1950
262,000
1988
292,400
2008
409,100
Relationship between overseas migration &
unemployment: Australia
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Net
overs
eas m
igra
tio
n (
pers
on
s)
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t ra
te (
%)
Financial year
Unemployment rate Net overseas migration
Population growth rates and components
Looking back 40 years, looking forward 40 years
Looking back 40 years, looking forward 40 years
Ken Henry’s challenge
The former head of Treasury, Ken Henry, said
Australia's population growth is the biggest
challenge to Commonwealth and state
governments since Federation.
In a Brisbane speech (October 2009) he
envisaged a 60% increase in Australia’s
population by 2050.
He said the challenge would require national
leadership on urban development.
Source: ABC News October 2009
Differences in population growth rates
Population change across Australia is very
uneven. Australia is already one of the most
urban nations on Earth and it is becoming
more so.
Australia and Europe
But Australia is highly urbanised
Sydney= 4.6m Melbourne = 4.2m
Brisbane = 2.1m
Perth = 1.8m
Adelaide = 1.3m
Population distribution, Victoria, 2011
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population, cat. no. 3218.0
The further urbanisation of Australia
The inner city development boom
Inner city population change since 1954,
Melbourne and Sydney
Sources: ABS Census, various years, and Regional Population Growth, Cat.no 3218.0 (July 2012 release)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1954-61 1961-66 1966-71 1971-76 1976-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11
Persons
('000)
Period (years)
Inner Melbourne Inner Sydney
Regional population challenges
Population change within Victoria since 1951
The pivotal role of regional centres
The role of regional centres
• Most have successfully transitioned from
manufacturing centres to regional service
centres
• The largest employers in these centres
are often providers of health and
education services
• There has been a growth of specialist
services in both the public and private
sectors
• The regional populations they service are
often double their own populations
• Regional centres are developing a
significant professional class
Population change 1991 to 1996
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population, cat. no. 3218.0
Population change 1996 to 2001
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population, cat. no. 3218.0
Population change 2001 to 2006
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population, cat. no. 3218.0
Population change 2006 to 2011
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population, cat. no. 3218.0
Looking back 40 years, looking forward 40 years
Highest population growth is likely to be in regional centres
From rocking horse to rocking chair?
Proportion of population in selected age categories, 1971, 2011 and projected 2051
Sources: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics cat. no. 3101.0; DPCD Victoria in Future 2012
Different age structures in different parts of Victoria
0100,000200,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Males
0 100,000 200,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Females
010,00020,00030,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Males
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Females
010,00020,00030,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Males
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Females
Melbourne
Regional Cities Rural Victoria
Living arrangements vary by age – Victoria, 2011
The way we live: Lynbrook – Lyndhurst (a youthful suburb)
The way we live: Rosebud – McCrae (aged + retirement)
The way we live – St Kilda (young adult - inner city)
The reasons for population change differ over time
Baby boom
How people behave – their past and unknown future impact on the city
No electricity
2 children Share bed
Mass transit,No cars
Energy for lighting, cooking and heating
2 single bedsper bedroom
Extensive householdcar ownership
Sophisticatedheating and cooling systems
2 single bedrooms with ensuites
Extensive individual car ownership
?
?
?
The old and the new in Balwyn
• Between 2004 and 2011 Melbourne’s population
growth was 11.2%
• During this time, bus patronage increased by 18%
• Tram patronage increased by 26%
• Train patronage increased by 58%
Population growth vs growth in public transport patronage
1. High levels of national and state population growth
into the future
2. Uncertainty - expect the unexpected
3. Strong urbanisation – capital cities and regional
centres
4. Ageing populations and households: diversity of
demand
Conclusions and challenges
Assessing population change in Victoria
Presentation to Victorian Transport Summit
by Jeremy Reynolds, Manager, Demographic Research, DPCD
3rd October 2012
