Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013

World Water Day: Water Cooperation

‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas (ESPA

Deltas project)’,

by Dr. Craig Hutton, ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment, University of Southampton

Presented by: Dr. Craig Hutton ESPA Deltas Research Coordinator, GeoData Institute, Geography & Environment AU University of Southampton United Kingdom

Lecture 4. Climate change and the

integrated coastal system. Wednesday

25 July 2007

ESPA DELTA: Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services And

Poverty Alleviation In Populous Deltas

EPSA Consortium Grant University of Southampton (Nicholls PI)

University of Oxford Exeter University

Dundee University Hadley Centre

Plymouth Marine Laboratories National Oceanography Centre (Liverpool) Plus 10 Bangladeshi partners (BUET lead)

2 Indian partners (JU, ITTK) 1 Chinese partner (ECNU)

Delta Population & Poverty

Threatened Deltas Population potentially displaced by current sea-level trends to 2050

Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)

1 million

million to 50,000

50,000 to 5,000

Deltas are sinking: Pink areas are below sea level

Nile

CSDMS

Ganges

Mississippi

Mekong

Euphrates

Yellow

Indus

Mahakam

Vistula

Height above sea level

dark green < 5 m

light green < 3 m

pale green < 1m

100 km

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBN) Delta

Population: 150 million

World Cities: Kolkata and Dhaka

The Sunderbans

Water –from the Himalayas through India and

China

Global-Mean Sea Level IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) (2007)

Study Area

Key Ecosystems

Source: BRAC (2007)

Marine

Riverine

Floodplain

Supporting Provisioning Maintaining Cultural

Socio-Economic Trends in the delta plain

• Growing populations;

• Rising wealth and improving health, but questions of inequality;

• Changing livelihoods and migration;

• Urbanisation and infrastructure expansion;

• Intensification of agriculture;

• Increasing demand for flood management;

• Increased water demand.

Research Questions

• To understand the present relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being and health in the Bangladeshi portion of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta.

• To develop participatory methods to predict how these ecosystem services might evolve over the coming years and decades (up to 50 years) and their influence on human well-being and health under the multiple drivers of change in operation.

• To analyse how policy can influence these outcomes and promote ecosystem services and human well-being and health.

• To develop participatory methods to select robust policies that are effective across the range of uncertainty, including adaptive management approaches.

• To test the transferability of these methods to other populated deltas.

climate

catchment

delta

other

Social-Economic

ModFlow POLCOMs-ERSEM

FVCOM (coast)

FVCOM (river)

Spatial scale

Tem

pora

l sc

ale

1m 10m 1km 10km 100 km

1hr

1d

1m

o

1yr

100 y

r

HadCM3

global regional catchment local point

GWAVA

PRECIS

CAESAR INCA HydroTrend

FVCOM (marine)

MAXTENT

CropWat

Mangrove

AquaCrop

Fishery

14

Scales in Bio-physical & socio-economic models

15 UNSW, Canberra

Systems Dynamics: Integration of Socio-Environmental Models

in such a way as to consider the systems impacts of

interventions and policies on socio-economic

as well as biophysical outcomes

e.g Prelim.

conceptualisation

for ESPA Deltas Systems are combined

to produce an integrated

Socio-environmental approach

with feedback and thresholds

Mangrove

area Biomass

Production

rate

X Decay

rate

X

+ +

Temperature

CO2

fertilisation +

+

Species

density/diversity No of

tigers

No of

deer Tree ha-1

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

No of

Tourists

Land erosion

Magnitude/frequency

of cyclones

+ Sea Level Rise

+

-

Alluvial

deposition

Commercial

exploitation of trees

Size of

protected area

Market price of

tourist attractions +

+

+

+

+

Firewood collection

for personal use

Honey,

wax, fruits

meat

collection

+ +

Market price of

Goods (Collector)

Wealth Nutrition

+

+ +

+

+

Fish

Nursery

+

Nutrient

load

Sediment

load

River flow

+ -

Water

Quality

-

+

No of

migrating

people

+

+

+

+

- -

-

Sunderban Socio-

economic

model

Coastal

fishery

+ - - -

?

outsiders

16

Crop

damage

Pollination

Crop

Production Growth

rate

X Decay

rate

X

+ +

+ + +

Agriculture

Area

Employment

opportunities Nutrition

Nutrients +

Temperature

CO2

fertilisation +

+

Salinity -

Precipitation

+

+

-

River flooding

High intensity

storm

+

+

Population

Number +

Agriculture

Socio-

economic

model

Mangrove

17

Building

damage Settlement

size

+

River

flooding

High intensity

storm/cyclone + +

Coastal

flooding

+

+

Young

Population Births X

Deaths X

+ +

Birth rate Death rate

+ +

Working

Population

Elderly

Population Maturation X

Aging X

Migration -

+ +

Employment

opportunities

Settlement

Education

Shrimp

farm Fishery

Agriculture Sunderban

Socio-

economic

model

+

-

Arsenic ?

+

Wealth +

18

Land erosion

Fish

capture

No of

Tourists

Magnitude/frequency

of cyclones

+

Sea Level

Rise

+

+ +

Employment

opportunities Market price

of fish (Collector)

Market price

of tourist attractions

(Collector) + +

+ +

Nutrition + Population

number +

+

Fishery

Socio-

economic

model

Biomass of

Fish stock Biomass

Production

rate

X Mortality

rate

X

+ +

+ +

Nutrients

Primary

production +

+ Arsenic

+

Sunderban

Nursery +

19

Shrimp

Biomass Growth

rate

X Mortality

rate

X

+ +

+ +

Shrimp farm

area

Employment

opportunities Nutrition

Nutrients +

Temperature

+

+

Population

Number +

Saline pollution

of freshwater

Increased likelihood

of coastal flood defence

failure

Building Damage

+

+

Shrimp farm

+

Market price of

Shrimp (Collector)

Socio-

economic

model

Settlement

+

20

Thank you

http://espadeltas.geodata.soton.ac.uk

/

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World Water Day: Water Cooperation Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013