ASOK 4

Kauai Community College, Office of Continuing Education Sustainability Series Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i

The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net

David Orr (4:30min) on “The Design Problem” [Riff on Tom Toles cartoon.] [Oct 06]

3:51 – 7:00

John R. Ehrenfeld (4min) on “Sustainabililty is Something Else” Author of “Sustainability by Design” [Apr 09] 38:00 – 42:10 http/::collegerama.tudelft.nl:mediasite:Viewer:%3Fpeid=ef7d15a28e4e4d93a0262f14486283b7



DES IGN PROBLEMDES IGN PROBLEM



A Lifecycle Assessment of U.S. Household Consumption, Christopher M. Jones, 2005



Dominant model infinite competitive growth

MAXIMUM ENTROPY

bigger fish swallowing the smaller

laying waste to everything in its path

like a hurricane

no closed cycle to hold resources within or to build up stable organized structures

Sustainable model life cycle of the organism

ZERO ENTROPY

self-similar fractal structure cycles turning within cycles

the secret of sustainability

dynamically closed cycle enables stable organized structures

to build up and in a balanced way

from “Dream Farm” by physicist Mae-Wan Ho



ENERGY ENERGY



MORE HOCKEY ST ICKSMORE HOCKEY ST ICKS

SOURCE: PLAN B 4.0, Lester Brown, 2009



80% BY 2020?80% BY 2020? Cutting CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020 will take a worldwide mobilization at wartime speed. First, investing in energy efficiency will allow us to keep global energy demand from increasing. Then we can cut carbon emissions by one third by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources for electricity and heat production. A further 14 percent drop comes from restructuring our transportation systems and reducing coal and oil use in industry. Ending net deforestation worldwide can cut CO2 emissions another 16 percent. Last, planting trees and managing soils to sequester carbon can absorb 17 percent of our current emissions. None of these initiatives depends on new technologies. We know what needs to be done to reduce CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020. All that is needed now is leadership.



ENERGY TECH FOOTPRINTSENERGY TECH FOOTPRINTS



COST OF ENERGY TECHCOST OF ENERGY TECH

Source: RE-AMP study of the Midwestern energy system. This map distills the inter-relationships of the Four Fronts. The systems needs to increase the stocks in blue and decrease the stocks in red in order to accomplish its goal of reducing GHG 80% by 2030. The blue arrows note positive flows



KAUA` I ’ S RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENT IALKAUA` I ’ S RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENT IAL

SOURCE: Black & Vietch, Renewable Energy Tech Assessment, Mar 05



KAUA` I ’ SKAUA` I ’ S RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENT IAL RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENT IAL

SOURCE: Presentations by McKinsey and Booze Hamilton for Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative, 2009



NEED MORE FOSS IL FUEL GENERAT ION?NEED MORE FOSS IL FUEL GENERAT ION?

SOURCE: KIUC Equity Management Plan, 2009

GENX

BIOMASS & HYDRO



KAUA` I RENEWABLES COST KAUA` I RENEWABLES COST SCENAR IOSCENAR IO

NOTE: In 2008, KIUC emissions totaled 322,000 tons of GWP.

SOURCE: Estimates by The Kauaian Institute based on 2008 U.S. cost data.



UT IL I T I ES SYSTEMSUT IL I T I ES SYSTEMS I LLUSTRATED I LLUSTRATED



Systems Thinking About Energy



FOODFOOD



Source: National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), 2008



Source: University of Michigan, Center for Sustainable Systems



Source: 2005 Honolulu Consumer Expenditure Survey NOTE: The Hawai`i median household spends 37% more than ‘Living Wage’ budget



Source: 2005 Honolulu Consumer Expenditure Survey



Source: USDA, Thrifty Food Plan Report 2006 NOTE: HI households spend 17% less than ‘Thrifty’ budget

Ratio of ActualRatio of Actual to Thrifty Dollarsto Thrifty Dollars



KAUA`I FOOD SPENDING IN KAUA`I FOOD SPENDING IN CONTEXTCONTEXT

SOURCE: 2002 Economic Census



”Industrial farming does not have the biodiversity and reciprocity to hold the energy within and ends up generating a lot of waste and entropy

and depleting the soil. Entropy exported to the environment \will simply mean diminished environmental input.

Anaerobic digestion of livestock and other wastes saves carbon emissions twice over,

by preventing the serious greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide from reaching the atmosphere, and by methane substituting for fossil fuel use

to run vehicles and farm machinery.

The thermodynamics of organisms and sustainable systems tells us not only why we must move away from the dominant environmental bubble economy,

but especially how we can create a healthier, richer, more equitable and satisfying life without fossil fuels, and we should start right now."

Mae-Wan Ho

Physicist, Institute for Science in Society Inventor of the “Zero Emissions Food and Energy (ZEFE) Farm



ZEFE F a rms on Kaua ` iZEFE F a rms on Kaua ` i

Towns average 0.7 acres per person. ZEFE land requirement = 0.36 acres per person Kauai needs 116 ZEFE farms of 200 acres each.

Capital investment ~ $250M



THE THREE TRAPS OF COMMODITY SYSTEMS

Resource Depletion Trap: The Production Growth Drivers lead to increases in Harvest rate. If Harvest rate is higher than Regeneration rate, then Resource level will decline. Although many people expect the Cost of acquiring the resource to limit Total production, this signal is often too weak or too delayed to do so. Community Decline Trap: The Production growth drivers push down Price—and a greater Producer-buyer power differential will drive down Price all the more. Falling price reduces the Producer’s income (even more so when the Producer-landlord or supplier power differential is great). Falling income increases the Consolidation rate of producers, decreasing the Number of producers and lowering Community well-being indicators. Feedback is missing however, that might solve the problem. Neither the falling Community well-being nor the falling Producer’s income affect Capacity.

Environmental Pollution Trap:

The Production growth drivers push the rate of Waste generation upwards. Over time, if the Waste generation rate surpasses the Purification rate, the Waste level builds. However, the connection from the Waste level to Capacity is weak or missing in most commodity systems.

Excerpted from: Commodity System Challenges, April 2003 www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/pubs/SustainableCommoditySys.2.1.pdf



FOOD SYSTEM LEVERAGEFOOD SYSTEM LEVERAGE

SOURCE: Sustainable Food Lab, “Innovations for Healthy Value Chains, 2008



TRANSPORTTRANSPORT



SOURCE: EcoLane, UK Life Cycle Assessment of Vehicle Fuels and Technologies, 2007



ELECTR IC VEH ICLES DR IVE CHEAPERELECTR IC VEH ICLES DR IVE CHEAPER

NOTE: American drivers spent $280 billion for gas last year, when the equivalent miles in an EV would have cost $66 billion. SOURCE: Lester Brown, Plan B, Earth Policy Institute, 2007



B IOFUEL FB IOFUEL F OOTPR INTOOTPR INT SS

Source: Natural Logic, The Ecological Footprint of Biofuels, 2008



VEH ICLE M ILES TRAVELEDVEH ICLE M ILES TRAVELED

SOURCE: KPAA Community Indicators 2008 Update



KAUA` I ENERGY TRENDSKAUA` I ENERGY TRENDS

SOURCE: DBEDT Monthly Energy Trends



KAUA`I DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS AND WORKERS

Source: Census 2000 & County Business Patterns



Source: Census 2000 & County Business Patterns

Source: Census 2000



KAUAIAN LANDL INESKAUAIAN LANDL INES GREENER , CHEAPERGREENER , CHEAPER

Commute Vehicle Substitution Scenario

Households 20,183

Employed 26,789 Emp in town 5,920 (22%) Carpool 4,143 (16%)

JTW Trips (between towns) 18,797

Vehicles 36,800

Fleet value (@ $15k) $552 M

Van cost (@ $40k) $83 M EV replacement* (@ $20k) $404 M Total replacement cost $487 M

Fleet cost saving 12%12%

JTW Miles (@ 25 daily) 469,928 Miles w/ van 65,214 Fleet miles saving 86%86%

Gas ($4 @ 22mpg) $84,587 Gas w/ van ($4 @ 11mpg) $23,477

Gas cost saving 72%72%

Source: The Kauaian Institute and Census 2000 data

* 1 per household



FOOTPR INT FOOTPR INT REDUCT IONREDUCT ION

Transport target for achieving One Planet Living (0.23 gha)

Transport Scenarios for Footprint Reduction

Selected Scenario: 50% reduced miles Triple mileage

SOURCE: Scotland’s Footprint, Best Foot Forward, 2008

ASOK 4

Education

Transcript of ASOK 4