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Surgical strike supremacySurgical strike supremacyBy Rosemarie John

While missiles are simply glorifiedrockets with extremelysophisticated guidance systems,there is no denying just howeffective and deadly theycan be. And despite themajor sophisticationthat has gone intoadvanced missiledevelopment,

This advantage makes missilesthe preferred advance attack

platform which allstates fear as thereis usually very littlewarning ahead of

the assault, whichcould come from a

confoundingnumber of

important centre of the globaleconomy, focusing more on openand free trade that results inextremely porous borders,ownership of missiles from both adefensive standpoint and apotential first-strike option hasbecome even more important thanever.

Unfortunately, the issue of

Pyongyang is currentlyestimated to have deployed asmany as 750 ballistic missiles,including some 600-800 Scud-typeshort-range rockets and between150 and 200 medium-range NoDong missiles.

While the Kim Jong-il regimehas yet to test-fire another long-range missile, it has moved ahead

Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region have acquired missile systems and are now in the process ofupgrading such systems or developing homegrown systems and capabilities. In this seemingly one-upmanship game, one big question remains unanswered – to what extent do these missile systems reallyserve any purpose and what shape will missile defense systems in the region take in the years ahead?

the simple fact of the matterremains that almost anyone canbuild missiles of some form oranother.

From fireworks displays (anancient Chinese invention) tomodern out-of-the box ghastlysolutions dreamt up by the Al-Qaeda in using fully-fueled planesas guided missiles in the 9-11attacks, there is really little onecan employ as a counter-measuredue to the speed of the assault.

In short, nothing beats a missilewhere it comes to deliveringmassive shock value and speed indeploying a lethal payload.

directions.And since missiles are always

ready at high reliability to providewidespread devastation at quicknotice, they are also the weaponof choice for terrorists from botha strategic perspective andaffordability standpoint.

While more developed nationsalready have some form of defencecapabilities in place and alsocounter-measures capable of evenmore destructive force acting asdeterrents, this isn’t the case withmost Asian countries – exceptinga few in perpetual tension zones.

But with Asia having become an

missile purchases anddevelopments remain tinged withpolitical overtones due tohistorical tensions prevalent in Asiaand the ever-present potential fornuclear warfare being triggered byaccident.

Nations with missilesSince the surprise launch of NorthKorea’s three-stage Taepo Dong1 missile over Japan in August 1998,the isolationist nation has madesubstantial advances in its ballisticmissile capabilities.

considerably in the developmentof an extended-range variant ofthe Taepo Dong, the Taepo Dong2. South Korean intelligence hasindicated that the North isdeveloping rocket engines for theTaepo Dong 2 that would give it arange of 6,700 kilometers.

North Korea is probably oneof the most heavily fortified nationsin the world, with some 600kilometers of tunnels and morethan 8,000 deep bunkers, pluscaverns that have been enlarged toprotect command centers, missileand nuclear facilities, combataircraft and indeed entire units

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close to the Demilitarized Zonealong the border with the Republicof Korea.

Most have been constructedwithin granite mountains with themain service entrances facing north(facing away from Japan and SouthKorea) and most of its significantmilitary facilities have been movedto underground facilities believedto be capable of withstanding USbunker-busting bombs. Some fivemillion tonnes of ammunition, foodand fuel are thought to be storedunderground for wartime use.

An added factor is the nuclearpower issue that is still beinghandled via the ongoing Six Partytalks and a speculated undergroundnuclear test earlier this year. NorthKorea’s self-serving outlook andinternational condemnation led bythe US lead many to believe thepowder keg is simply waiting for alit fuse to explode against itsneighbours.

At the same time, China is inthe midst of a massive multi-yearmilitary modernization program,encompassing air power, naval andland force capabilities, air defenseand electronic information andspace-warfare technologies.

As part of this effort, China isupgrading its existing ballisticmissile arsenal. This includes thedeployment on its Dong-feng 31ICBMs of multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)warhead technology designed todefeat primitive anti-missilesystems.

The focus is also on prioritysolid fuel propellant researchintended to provide Beijing withimmediate ‘launch on command’capabilities and the transformationof its strategic offensive forcesfrom large stationary missiles tomore versatile road and rail mobilevariants.

In the wake of its successfulOctober 2003 launch of theShenzhou V spacecraft, Beijing isdeveloping advanced militarycapabilities as part of an exo-atmospheric ‘deterrent’ force.China’s emerging space force willinclude both lasers and missilescapable of destroying satellites.

Over the next several years,China will place into operation anew solid-propellant mobileICBM, the DF-31 (7,250+ km), anextended range DF-31A (11,270+km) and a new submarine-launchedballistic missile, the JL-2.

The growth of short-rangeballistic missiles and ICBMs is onlyone portion of a massive, multi-year military modernization effortpursued by Beijing to support itsgrowing international role and itsability to project military power.

While China has largelyexercised restraint, alarm bellsnevertheless went off when itdestroyed a defunct satellite witha kinetic weapon earlier this year,raising fears that the sleepingdragon may be ready to exert itsmuscles sometime in the yetindeterminate future.

On the opposite side of the

Asian continent is India, spurredby Pakistan’s ballistic missilecapabilities and its missilepartnership with China.

“India is also developing threenew variants of missiles withranges between 5,000 to 5,500kilometers. These include three-stage variants of Agni, a hypersonicBrahmos and Sagarika, asubmarine-launched naval missile,”said Defence Research andDevelopment Organization(DRDO) scientists.

DRDO has triumphed in itsefforts to boost India’s long-rangemissile capabilities. The secondlaunch of Agni-III has been carriedout relatively quickly and themissile’s flight was flawless, bothindications that it was only arelatively minor problem that ledto failure on the first occasion.The new missile is thought to havea range of about 3,500 km.

The subcontinent nation hasalso begun work on a hybriddomestic missile defense systemto provide an area missile defensecovering a radius of over 200kilometers, incorporating IsraeliGreen Pine radars and upgradedvariants of India’s Prithvi ballisticmissile.

India has also acquired fromIsrael several units of the Barakship-based anti-missile systemwhich is capable of interceptingincoming missile threats at a rangeof 70 kilometers.

Meanwhile, formerly swornenemy that continues to remain

cautious, Pakistan has made rapidprogress in acquiring the capabilityto build solid propellant missiles.

The Ghaznavi is believed to bebased on technology for the M-11missile supplied by China. But thesingle-stage Shaheen-1 and thetwo-stage Shaheen-2 could havebeen developed largelyindigenously.

The Shaheen-2, which was firsttested in 2004, has a range that isestimated to be about 1,100 km.Pakistan also had anothersuccessful test of its latest strategicnuclear missile, the 1.5 ton Haft VIIcruise missile, with a range of 700kilometers.

The immediate threat oftensions between these twonations carved out by the British in1947 may have dampenedsomewhat due to the Al-Qaedathreat the Taliban threats inAfghanistan but the tit-for-tatdisplays of power via nuclear testssome years back is still cause forconcern in the future.

Then there is Iran, locatedwithin the smoldering Middle East,which began its own ambitiousmissile development programmein earnest during the stalematedwar with Iraq in the 1980s.

Its main missiles are those isthe Shahab (Persian for meteor)series which relied heavily onRussian and North Koreanassistance for domesticdevelopment. In recent years,Iranians developed multi-stageShahab-4, Shahab-5 and Shahab-6,

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which are derivations of NorthKorean Taepodong.

However, its current mainstays– the Shahab-2 and Shahab-3missiles – have ranges from 300kmto up to 2,000 km and it is widelybelieved that Iranian experts haveinstalled cluster warheads in themwith the capacity to carry up to1,400 bombs.

But the most advanced missilecurrently in Iran’s arsenal is theFajr-3 (MIRV) – a domesticallydeveloped and produced liquid fuelmissile with an unknown range.With its multiple independentlytargeted reentry vehicles (MIRV)capabilities to avoid anti-missileSAMs, plus its existing nuclearpower capability, Iran has becomethe numero uno wildcard fearedby the US in the Gulf region.Another factor to be consideredwhen it comes to missiles on theAsian continent are those on thefrontiers of the Commonwealthof Independent States (CIS).

The Russian Federationinherited the sprawling Sovietballistic missile apparatus, whichincludes medium and long rangesolid and liquid fueled missilesafter the collapse of the Union ofSoviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

And, despite the economic andpolitical turmoil that has

outfitted with MIRV warheadtechnology. Deployment of thefirst regiment of Topol M missiles,including between three and ninemobile launchers, is slated for thisyear.

Combined with the numerousSAM systems still operating aroundMoscow, Russia maintains far moreinterceptors compared with theUS missile defense systemcurrently being deployed. Inaddition, Russia is developing the

S-400 (SA-20 Triumf) surface-to-air air-defense and theater anti-missile system.

The S-400 will be able todestroy aircraft, cruise missilesand short and medium-rangeballistic missiles at a distance of upto 400 kilometers. This systemincorporates a new missile that isreported to have twice the rangeof the Patriot PAC-3 and well overtwice the range of the S-300 missileit replaces.

Missiles have been around since the first thrown stone, but today theword is reserved for rocket-powered guided weapons systems. Thesehave had a revolutionary effect on almost every area of military activity,changing the nature of combat.

The Chinese, who invented gunpowder, invented rockets inmedieval China (Circa 1044 AD) but its first practical use for seriouspurpose other than entertainment took place in 1232 AD by theChinese against the Mongols at the siege of Kai-Feng-Fue.

Thereafter from 1750 AD to 1799 AD, Haider Ali and Tipu Sultan(Sultan of Mysore, in south India) perfected the rocket’s use for militarypurposes very effectively using it in war against British colonial armies.These rockets were later developed by the British as CongreveRockets.

The development of modern missiles dates back to before WW II,but it was with the German V-1 cruise missile and the V-2 ballistic rocketthat the missile age truly began. The weapons had limited success butthe long-term potential was irrefutable.

The V-2, developed by Nazi Germany during World War II was firsttest-launched on 3 October 1942 and could deliver a 1,650-lb (750-kg)warhead to a target 225 miles away. Germany launched approximately3,000 V-2s during the war, but with little military effect as it was lackingthe sophisticated guidance computers.

Missile HistoryThe US and Soviet Union were far behind Germany in the design

of large rockets during World War II, but both captured V-2 techniciansand information at the end of the war and used them to accelerate theirown missile programs.

During the 1950s both the Soviet Union and the US turned theirattention to the development of ballistic-missile boosters that couldreach the other country’s heartland from anywhere in the world.

The Soviet Union flight-tested the world’s first intercontinentalballistic missiles (ICBM), the R-7 in August, 1957. Two months later theR-7 was used to launch the world’s first artificial satellite, Sputnik I andfour years later launched the world’s first orbital manned space flight.

The US was not far behind and by 1959 had deployed its own ICBMs,the liquid-fueled Atlas and Titan missiles.

At the peak of their build-up, which occurred in the late 1980s, thetwo superpowers together possessed approximately 70,000 nuclearweapons, many mounted on ballistic missiles. After the Cold Warended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, arms-controlagreements were made between Russia and the US that reduced theircombined nuclear arsenal to approximately 30,500 warheads.

The US State Department estimates that at least 27 nations nowpossess, or are in the process of developing, ballistic missiles. However,China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, France, andthe UK are the only countries beside the US and Russia to possess long-

punctuated Russian affairs in thepast decade, Moscow retains aformidable offensive strategicarsenal – the cornerstone of whichis the SS-18 Satan ICBM, slated toremain in combat service for thenext 10 or 15 years.

Russia’s principal ballisticmissile development project is theTopol ICBM, now in advanced test-ing. The Russian military hascreated a highly maneuverablevariant, the Topol M, which can be

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increasing fire power? Are theAmericans the only onesconsidered eligible to possess orproduce missiles and defensesystems?

Looking at the world today,looks like the winds are changingand it’s about time.

For over half a century,Americans have publiclyannounced they were policing theworld as a strategic and moralimperative – saving the world fromcommunism while defending theirown national security.

threats to Americanterritories, including the UShomeland and, more importantly,threatening US forces deployed inthe region.

The Asian countries that mightpose a credible and realistic missilethreat to the US over the next 10-15 years are North Korea, Chinaand perhaps India. As such, the USbelieves that it needs to deploy aglobal, multi-tiered missile defensesystem in space against asupposedly increasingly

worldwide missile threat.Considering that the US are

manufacturers of missilesthemselves, it’s quiteincomprehensible as to why wouldit be an issue should othercountries do the same when it isonly a form of national security aswell as a business venture.

What about the possibility ofthe US launching missiles to thesecountries? Isn’t that a concern thatthese nations have when the USkeeps insisting on treaties while itcontinues to load itself with ever-

Global politicsConsidering the existence ofpressure from the west, missiledefence capabilities for Asiannations has entered a new era.

The decades-long debate overwhether to protect one’s peoplefrom the threat ofmissile attack and therigid constraints oftreaties which made theconstruction of effectiveanti-missile capabilitiesimpossible right up totoday still hangsundecided.

What remains an openquestion is what shapemissile defense systemsin the Asia-Pacific regionwill take in the years aheadconsidering the existenceof pressure from the west.

The US, with its infamoustreaty propositions, is becomingincreasingly overwhelmed withmissile manufacturer competitorslike China, Russia and North Koreaalong with the fact it no longerknows with any certainty whereor when a missile could belaunched against the Americas.

Uncle Sam is keeping a closewatch on missile developments inAsia as the US fears potential

range ballistic missiles (i.e., ICBMs and SLBMs).China developed the Dongfeng 5 (DF-5), a 3-stage Chinese ICBM

which had its first flight in 1971. India has produced an SRBM, the Prithviand an intermediate-range ballistic missile-IRBM, the Agni; it also hasbuilt several space-launch rockets capable of being used as ICBMs.

Pakistan manufactures several BSRMBs and SRBMs of its own (theHatf I, II, and III missiles) and has purchased M-11 SRBMs from China.Israel’s Jericho 2B IRBM can reach southern Russia and much of theMiddle East while North Korea’s Taep’o Dong 2 IRBM can reach muchof mainland Asia, Japan, the Pacific and probably Scandinavia.

Some states (e.g., Japan, Sweden) are technically capable of buildingboth ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons but have refrained fromdoing so. However, it’s only a matter of time and of national securityinterest that many more states are likely to develop ballistic missilesin the near future.

A more recent threat has been the shoulder launched missileweapon small enough to be carried by one man and fired while held onone’s shoulder. ‘Missile’ is used here in the original broad sense: todaythe word has a strong connotation with the concept of a guided rocket.

The smallest shoulder-launched rocket weapons are called rocketpropelled grenades (RPG). There are also larger shoulder-launchedmissiles used in a similar way to a RPG, but with far greater destructivepower.

The numbers of specialized ‘smart’ missiles are available in shoulder-launched forms, including Starstreak HVM (High Velocity Missile) andMan-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS).

The Starstreak system is produced by Thales Air Defence Ltd(TADL), formerly Shorts Missile Systems of Belfast, Northern Ireland.The missile, which travels at more than three times the speed of sounduses a system of three dart-like projectiles allowing multiple hits onthe target.

The first man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to enteroperational service was the US Army’s FIM-43A Redeye, introducedduring the early 1960s and produced until 1970. The weapon establishedthe now dominant model for such weapons.

MANPADS are also shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles.They typically use infra-red guidance and can be a threat to low-flyingaircraft and helicopters. The recent media debate over the threat ofterrorists using MANPADS or shoulder launched surface-to-air missilesagainst airliners understates in many respects the complexities of theissue involved.

Like narcotics, MANPADS are compact high value commoditieswhich are easily concealed and easily smuggled. In the hands of acompetent operator who knows how to exploit the strengths of theseweapons, they can often be highly effective against a wide range ofaircraft.

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The US would never allow aforeign plane with sophisticatedsurveillance equipment to fly 70miles from the coast of Florida forfear that such efforts could gatherintelligence on American militarycapabilities. Yet, US insists that ithas the right to make 200 of thesekinds of flights each year to spy onChina. China might not yet beready to directly challenge USmilitary supremacy but its evolvingmilitary capability will increasinglymake it difficult for the US tomaintain its stance without seriousrepercussions. In short, China’smight is likely to progressivelyneutralize US military power.

Take Taiwan, for instance.China has hundreds of missilestargeted at Taiwan. This is not onlyprovocative for Taiwan, but alsofor the US, which is committed todefending Taiwan. But the US givesthe impression of being a helplessgiant, cautioning Taipei againstupsetting the ‘status quo’ for fearof inviting Chinese militaryretaliation.

Looking at the world in 2007,it’s hard to believe that the US wasreally fighting communism all thoseyears. Today China is the onlyremaining communist country withany significant power and it is notonly a major trading partner butalso the largest recipient of USforeign investment in thedeveloping world.Ironically, thatexact factor may be what saves theUS from embarking on a new ColdWar with China. There are justtoo many lucrative business dealsthat could go sour. China may notbe a rich country but it has one ofthe world’s fastest growingeconomies and a fifth of the Earth’spopulation.

That is the one main underlyingreason for the US being soaccommodating of North Korea,still going along with diplomaticovertures instead of resorting tomilitary might as it did in Iraq forScuds fired after the Kuwaitinvasion. China’s economic might,plus that of neighbouring SouthKorea and Japan are just toovaluable to risk.

And that’s also the reason whythe US has stayed its hand with

India and Pakistan; not to mentionIndonesia, which is currentlydeveloping its own. (see AD&D July2007 issue)

Asia defense shield?Recent developments do not bodewell for Asian countries, especially

those still sitting on the fencewhere it comes to upgradingexisting missile systems or on theverge of obtaining new systems.

Currently, Washington andMoscow are engaged in heatedrows over the US attempts todeploy a ballistic missile defense(BMD) system in Europe as eachside demonstrates its prowess at‘high intensity’ warfare.

The Pentagon claims the shieldof radar stations and interceptormissiles is intended to defend the

US against Iran, but Russia andChina say the system could upsetthe nuclear balance between thesuperpowers – especially once theproposed space-based laserintercept defence is factored in.

The argument is valid as the USconsiders North Korea and Iran asrogue states while considering

China and Russia as theircompetitors. It is only time beforethey start considering otherwiseand it could soon be possible forthe US to destroy the long-rangenuclear arsenals of Russia or Chinawith a first strike.

For now, what is even moregalling about the Americaninsistence is that its existinginterceptor system based in Alaskahas not proven itself to be reliableduring testing, where it has achievedintercepts during six out of 12

attempts.Ballistic missiles, and in

particular their warheads, travelat speeds measured in kilometersper second and for this reason thetask of shooting one down with ananti-ballistic missile has beenlikened to hitting a bullet with abullet, though bullets actually movefar slower.

For Asia, the implication of thisongoing debate is that missiles runamok after faulty interceptions oreven the debris from successfulintercepts could cause untolddamage within the region.

The situation could prove tobe so dire that it may becomenecessary to develop its own joint-defence system in cooperationwith geographical members states.And the effort may need to startwith diplomatic cooperationleading to shared technologies.

The expansion of missilecapabilities among several Asianstates and in particular North Koreaand China has stimulated interestin the region in the developmentand deployment of a variety ofpossible defensivecountermeasures, most notablyballistic missile defense (BMD)systems of its own, without theinfluence or control of the US.

The instruments for a largerAsia-Pacific economic communityare already in place, starting withthe Asia-Pacific EconomicCooperation (APEC) forum withthe ultimate goal being to meet theimperative for durable peace andsecurity.

Over the next decade, Asianstatesmen must initiate anddevelop an enforced stability inwhich the major Asian countriesand sub-regional blocs contributeto and share in the maintenance ofAsia-Pacific security in the face ofcommon geopolitical threats.

And once everyone is armedand protected simultaneouslyalong with even possible space-based defense systems, is thereeven a need to think about launchingmissiles? Samuel LanghorneClemens once said, “Armamentswere not created chiefly for theprotection of nations but for theirenslavement”.