Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

24
GLOBAL RESOURCES INVESTMENT CONFERENCE STATIONERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 27-28 SEP 2011 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com 7/3/22 1 Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors? Tim Weir – Wessex Asset Management

description

Objective Capital's Global Resources Investment Conference 2011Stationers' Hall, City of London27-28 September 2011Day 1- Session 5: Asia focusSpeaker: Tim Weir, Wessex Asset Management

Transcript of Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Page 1: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

GLOBAL RESOURCESINVESTMENT CONFERENCE

STATIONERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 27-28 SEP 2011

www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.comApril 12, 2023 1

Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors? Tim Weir – Wessex Asset Management

Page 2: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?
Page 3: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?
Page 4: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Wessex Asset Management

4April 12, 2023

10+ year hedge fund track record co-managing the Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF).

Wessex Natural Resources Fund manager since 2004 launch.

Wessex Gold Fund manager since 2007 launch

Economist by training

MA Oxford PPE 1980

AIIMR since 1982

Set up Abbey Commodity and Energy Trust 1982

Head of equities, Swiss Bank Corporation institutional funds London 1988-1993

Managed SBC’s GoldPortfolio, one of the world’s biggest gold equity funds, which won the Bopp-Finanz Swiss mutual fund prize 1990-93

Director of European equities at Nat West Investment Management 1993-1996

Tim Weir Chief Executive,

Investment Director

Fund Manager: Wessex Gold FundWessex Natural Resources Fund

Page 5: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Wessex Asset Management

5April 12, 2023

Peter Chesterfield Chairman,

Investment Director

10+ year Asian Hedge Fund track record co-managing the Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF)

Co-manager Wessex Natural Resource and Gold funds

MSc (Honours) Mining Geology

Exploration Geologist, Project Geologist, Investment Analyst in ANZ 1979-82

Mining analyst at Prudential in London 1982-84

Managed Abbey’s Commodity and Energy trust (ACET) and resource portfolios (see appendices).

14 year Asian track record managing Abbey Life’s Asian Pacific Trust (AAPT) 1985-99. Responsibility for over $1 billion of assets at Abbey Life

Page 6: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

6April 12, 2023

Asia: Land of Opportunities for Miners?

Asia: Land of Opportunities for Miners?

• Consumer wealth effects in China and India are dramatically spurring demand for gold and other commodities….

• China, now leads the world as a gold supplier, but its companies are opaque and its operating environment complex…

• …And China has become a significant actor as a source of mining finance and infrastructure investment, in some areas…

Yet…

• Gold and diamond deposits remain concentrated outside of Asia and most production is outside of Asia…

• …And the vast majority of mining finance does not come from Asia

For investors, Asia is NOT the land of opportunity.

Page 7: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

The real land of opportunity: Mining Equities

7April 12, 2023

Bullion vs Market Vectors: Significant opportunities have arisen from equity underperformance…

Source: Bloomberg

Page 8: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

The real land of opportunity: Mining Equities

8April 12, 2023

… And juniors have underperformed majors

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

9April 12, 2023

Gold is still in a bull market

Strong gold supply / demand fundamentals

1. Real interest rates are still very low or negative

2. Strong consumer demand, increasingly from newly affluent Asians

3. Asian central bank buying – Iran the latest to diversify reserves

4. Perceived as a safe haven in times of financial instability

5. Increased investment demand assisted by launch of ETFs

6. Falling gold mine production (notably South Africa)

Cross-currents

7. Gold normally benefits from US$ weakness and rate cuts

8. Gold as each-way bet on inflation and deflation risks

9. Can lose out tactically on FX moves and liquidity drying-up

10. End of QE, high interest rates and end of inflation fears would signal end of gold bull market

Equities

1. Equities have ‘optionality’ and are currently cheap relative to bullion

Page 10: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

The Gold bull market in US dollars

10April 12, 2023

USD

The gold bull market is not driven just by US$ weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Gold Price in Major Currencies

11April 12, 2023

Source: Bloomberg

AUD

EURO

not driven just be US$ weakness

… There is an ongoing gold bull market even in strong currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Page 12: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Gold market s – the new geography

12April 12, 2023

North America: Valuation premium justified by lower political risk. Some production expansion from reviving older mines.

Australia: Most pure Oz gold plays are small (except Newcrest). Oz-listed stocks producing from Asia, Africa.

South Africa: Increasing depth, power supply issues and falling grades make cost control very difficult. Politics a worry.West Africa: The new frontier. Exciting growth eg Tasiast mega-mine. Politics has improved significantly.

South America: Some interesting assets, mostly owned by North American majors.

Russia & FSU: Some opportunities but major expropriation risk.China: World’s biggest producer, but companies are fairly opaque.

Page 13: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Defining a profitable niche 1

13April 12, 2023

Gold is in a long-term bull market, but one characterized by high volatility and enormous stock divergence – how to profit from this?

Gold equities have leverage to bullion through operating gearing and enhancing the value of reserves in the ground

Commodity equities have accessible stock alpha due to the generally poor quality of research. Analysts tend to be relatively inexperienced. Good stock pickers should be able to beat a gold equity index or ETF.

Wessex principals have been meeting mine managers, going underground and analyzing gold mines since early 1980s. No special magic, just hard work and knowledge which cannot be replicated in front of Bloomberg screens

Sustainable excess returns can be generated by a L/S gold equity fund because of persistent characteristics in the gold market

Page 14: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Defining a profitable niche 2

A good stock picker can add more value in a long/short fund than in a long-only vehicle – the gross can be higher, the net can be higher or lower, shorts can be used for alpha or for protection

Gold shares should do better than bullion in a bull market

CTAs are better placed for protecting downside and making money in bear markets, but will normally not give full exposure in a bull market

Value can be added by timely exposure to silver, diamonds and PGM equities

14April 12, 2023

A long/short gold equity fund offers differentiated value – not replicated by CTAs, long-only funds or holding physical gold

Page 15: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Investment Philosophy

15April 12, 2023

Resource markets Ideas before numbers – correlations are unstable (no mechanistic data mining )

Stereoscopic investment Dynamic equilibrium between bottom-up and top-down

Diversification By strategy and theme, reduces risk and volatility. More arbitrage when unclear on directional bets

Style chameleon Value, growth and momentum at appropriate times

Risk Take only the risk we want, understand and can turn into value

Technical analysis/charts Used to assist in timing

Page 16: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

WGF trade examples: AUSGOLD

16April 12, 2023

A new gold province in Western Australia?

Source: Bloomberg

Page 17: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

WGF trade examples: PETRA DIAMONDS

17April 12, 2023

Ex-De Beers management cutting costs and innovating in diamonds in southern Africa

Source: Bloomberg

Page 18: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Risk Parameters

18April 12, 2023

WGFT Long / Short Exposure History

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07

WGFT = Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL = using actual precious metal sector weightings of the Wessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) May 2004 to July 2007 and scaling the weightings up such that the average net position over the life of the WGFT would have been 100% net in these sectors. Average precious metal sector weight in WNRF to date has been 23% and therefore the attribution has been scaled up by a constant factor of 1/23%.

Source:WAM

WNRF Market Cap of Precious Exposures Snapshot

-5%

5%

15%

Large <5bn Mid<1bn Small<300 Commodity

Source, Definition : WAM 31st May 2006

Page 19: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Summary

19April 12, 2023

We can make very significant money in the continuing gold bull market.

Good stock picking and market timing can turn this into a longer-term profitable hedge fund opportunity

Wessex team has a strong fund track record and portfolio managers who are very experienced in gold markets

A dedicated L/S gold fund, run more aggressively in terms of the net and stock concentration can achieve very strong returns

Page 20: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Wessex Asset Management

April 12, 2023 20April 12, 2023

Peter Chesterfield

Tim Weir

Gabrielle Knights

Sarah Martin

Nicola Dady

Douglas Sloane

George Vere-Laurie

Mishcon De Reya

Throgmorton

IMS Consulting

Treken

Chairman and Investment Director

CEO and Investment Director

Fund Manager

Associate Director, Operations

Middle Office Executive

Marketing Director

Consultant, risk and business development

WAM Legal Counsel

WAM Accounting

Compliance Consultants

Technology Support

Page 21: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Fund Service Providers

21April 12, 2023

Investment Manager Wessex Asset Management Ltd.8 Queen StreetLondon WIJ 5PD

Prime Broker / Custodian Morgan Stanley 25 Cabot Square, Canary WharfLondon E14 4QA

Auditor Ernst & YoungHarcourt Centre, Harcourt StreetDublin 2, Ireland

Administrator BNY Mellon Alternative Investment ServicesUnit D1, Balmoral Estate, Kells Road Navan, Co. Meath, Ireland

Legal Counsel Mishcon De ReyaSummit House, 12 Red Lion SquareLondon, WC!R 4QD

Legal Counsel (offshore) Maples and CalderPO Box 309, GeorgetownCayman Islands

Page 22: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

Fund Overview

22April 12, 2023

Minimum Investment 500,000 USD

Subscriptions Monthly

Redemptions Monthly 30 calendar day notice

Management Fee 1.5% Share Class A, 1% Share Class B

Incentive Fee 20% Share Class A 15% Share Class B

Other Fees None

High Water Mark Yes

Lockup None Share Class A ,12 months Share Class B

Early Redemption Fee None

Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index, XAU Gold and Silver Index in US$

Volatility Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index

Strategy Long/Short Gold and Precious Metals Equities

Region Global

Domicile Cayman Islands

Listing Irish Stock Exchange

Target Return 25% compounded per annum

Target Volatility none

Page 23: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

DISCLAIMER

23April 12, 2023

Important Notice:

The Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL (WGFT) should be viewed solely as a calculation of the precious metal sector performance of the Wessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) whilst as a variable part of the WNRF portfolio. The actual performance of the proposed Wessex Gold Fund could and probably will have different characteristics. These differences include but are not limited to regional, concentration, gross and fund focus.

This document is intended solely for publication and distribution to the recipient and may not be passed on or disclosed to any other person. This document is for information only and is not an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in the Wessex Gold Fund. In particular, it does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful or where the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or the recipient may not lawfully receive any such offer or solicitation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of relevant jurisdictions.The information and any opinions contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss from this information. Prospective investors should review the prospectus for the WGF before making an investment decision and should rely only on the information contained in the prospectus. Prospective investors should also inform themselves, and should take appropriate advice, on the legal requirements and as to the possible tax consequences, foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements that they may encounter under the laws of the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile and that may be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments.

The value of investments and income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase (this may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund). Performance numbers shown are records of past performance and as such do not guarantee future performance. Regulated in the United Kingdom by FSA.

This document is issued by Wessex Asset Management Limited. The Wessex Gold Fund (the ‘fund’) is defined as an' Unregulated Collective Investment Scheme’ (‘UCIS’) and the promotion of a UCIS either within the UK or from the UK is severely restricted by statute. Consequently, this document is only made available to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the FSA and to persons falling within the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. Shares in the fund should only be purchased by persons with professional experience of participating in unregulated schemes and any other person who receives this document should not rely upon it.

Page 24: Asia: a land of opportunity for miners & investors?

BOURNEMOUTH OFFICE Douglas Sloane

Tel: 44 (0) 1 202 200 930 Director of Marketing

Fax: 44 (0) 1 202 200 931 [email protected]

Lorne Park House, Lorne Park Road 44 (0) 207 659 2893

Bournemouth BH1 1JJ www.wessexam.co.uk

Authorized and regulated by the FSA and registered with the SEC