ASCE PORTS 2010 APRIL 26, 2010 - Results Direct · 2010. 5. 12. · ASCE PORTS 2010 APRIL 26, 2010...

ASCE PORTS 2010

APRIL 26, 2010

A u s t i n B e c k e r , P h . D . S t u d e n t , S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y

E m m e t t I n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y P r o g r a m

f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a n d R e s o u r c e s

P r o f . M a r t i n F i s c h e r , D e p a r t m e n t o f C i v i l a n d

E n v i r o n m e n t a l E n g i n e e r i n g

P r o f . B e n S c h w e g l e r , W a l t D i s n e y I m a g i n e e r i n g R e s e a r c h a n d D e v e l o p m e n t

Overview

Climate Change Impacts and Ports

Survey Findings

The Big Picture - Risk and Responsibility

Next Steps – Case Studies

www.portofcorpuschristi.com

2AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar

Climate Change Scenarios

Sea levels to rise .6 – 2 meters by 2100

o The world is not a bathtub!

Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 storms

Ocean storm tracks shifting

Inland floodingFrom Bender et al. Science 2010; 327(5964):454.


Why Ports?

Critical infrastructure in U.S. and global economy

o 80% of world freight moves by ship

Highly dependent on specific locations

o Deep water, protective harbors, multi-modal connections

Difficult or impossible to relocate

Highly vulnerable locations

o Often estuaries or river deltas the provide ecosystem services

o Prone to flooding, storm surge, and SLR

www.portofcorpuschristi.com


Impacts of Storms

5

Photos from Alabama State Port Authority

Katrina $100 Million in Damage to 3 MS Ports

$1.7 Billion in damage to Southern LA ports

IKE$2.4 Billion Damageto TX ports/waterways

Just eleven spills released approximately 7 million gallons of oil

AAPA Harbors, Navigation and Environment Seminar

Global Ports Survey Objectives

Climate Change Impacts –An issue for ports?

Climate Assumptions – What impacts do ports foresee?

Adaptation Strategies – What kinds of changes are ports considering with respect to climate change impacts?

Categories - Are certain categories of ports or port directors considering these issues more than others?


•Sampled IAPH/AAPA

•Survey Monkey

•Designed/Pretested with IAPH/AAPA

•30 Questions

•Distributed Summer 2009

•93 Usable Responses


31%

81%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

I feel sufficiently informed about how climate change

will impact my port operations.

Impacts of climate change is something that needs to be

addressed by the port community.

N = 93

Finding 1 – Information


Finding 2 – Sea Level Rise By 2100

10

17%

4% 7%

27%33%

11%

1%

13%

3% 6%

12%

39%

58%

83%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Don't Know

Decrease None < .5 meters

.5 - 1 meters

1-2 meters

>2 meters

Expected at Port

Would be a problem

N = 90


Will the Sea Level Rise You Expect By 2100Be a Problem For Your Port?

31%

69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Problem Not a Problem


Key Findings

Finding 3 – Ports Expanding

65%

78%

43%

19%

18%

3%

6%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Constructing New Terminals

Constructing New Quays or Berths

Acquiring Land

Building New storm Protections

Building Dikes

Building Locks

Building Hurricane Barriers

Pr

ote

cti

on

Ex

pa

ns

ion

13

N = 93


Plans for Expansion in Next 10 Years

Design Guidelines Used for New Infrastructure

12%

7%

15%

3%

58%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

I am not sure

We Do Not Consider Storm Events in Our Planning

Most Recent Storm

15 0r 50 Year Storm

100 Year Storm

300, 500, or 1000 Year Storm

Percent of Respondents


2%

40%

22%

6%

12%

6%

5%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

0

5

10

15

20

25

50

Other

Respondents

Yea

rsPlanning Horizons in Years


Finding 4 – Climate Change Policies

≥100 year return period

CC part of design guidelines or standards

Carries storm insurance

Has storm response plan

Holds staff meetings to discuss adaptation

Carries specific climate change insurance

CC addressed in port strategic plan

CC funded as line item in budget

Has specific CC planning document

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Has specific CC planning document

CC funded as line item in budget

CC addressed in port strategic plan

Carries specfic climate change insurance

Holds staff meeting to discuss adaptation

Has storm response plan

Carries storm insurance

CC part of design guidelines or standards

Use ≥ 100 year return period

Finding 4 – Climate Change Scores


Port Categories and Adaptation Scores

1.71.9

2.13

22.1

2.5

2.71.8

2.12.3

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

None (3)Co-Op Insurance (7)

Self-Insured (17)Standard Insurance (40)

Private Entity (5)Private/Public (31)

Public Entity (36)

Very Large (20)Large (23)

Medium (35)Small (11)

N = 93Max = 7Min = 0Mean = 2.2Std. Dev = 1.7

Category

(# of ports)Score


Global Comparisons

2.4

1.8

0.8

0.8

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

High-income (75)

upper-middle-income (10)

Lower-middle-income (4)

low-income (4)

World BankIncome Status

0.9

1.4

1.8

1.8

2.8

2.9

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Asia (17)

Africa (5)

Oceania (4)

Europe (17)

North America (43)

South/Central America (7)

World Region

18

Score Score


Gulf Coast Ports Scored Highest

1.8

2.1

2.9

3.7

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Great Lakes (4)

West Coast (8)

East Coast (14)

Gulf Coast (11)

US Region

19

Score


Survey Results Summary

Port staff concerned, but feel uninformed.

Ports rapidly expanding and building new infrastructure.

U.S. Gulf Coast ports tend to have more climate policies already in place.

Planning horizons, design specifications, and management need to incorporate uncertainty and adaptation.


Risk…

Environment Local/Regional Economic

National/Global Economic

Infrastructure Damage and

Cleanup

EPAFEMACoastal AgencyUSCGNGO

InsurersEngineers

InsurersReinsurers

Port Authorities

Private Firms

Engineers

Coastal Agency

City PlannersStatewide Planners

TaxpayersEmployees

USCGArmy CorpsDOT

Taxpayers

21

and Responsibility


Next Steps: Look to the Past to Plan for the Future

Looking for case-study ports to further this research

Continue to work with AAPA/IAPH

How have hurricanes changed port planning, technology, and policy?

How do port stakeholders define resilience?

How do port stakeholders work independently and in aggregate to create more resilient ports?

22

T h e S u r v e y R e s p o n d e n t s

M e r e d i t h M a r t i n o , A A P A

S a t o s h i I n o u e , I A P H

M e g C a l d w e l l , C e n t e r f o r O c e a n S o l u t i o n s

P a m M a t s o n , S c h o o l o f E a r t h S c i e n c e s

M i k e M a s t r a n d r e a , I P C C / W o o d s I n s t i t u t e

C E E 1 2 9 / 2 2 9 C l a s s

Contact Austin Becker

[email protected]

www.seaports2100.org


Deltaworks in the Netherlands

mailto:[email protected]

Extra Slides Below


Well-Functioning Ports for the Future

Maintain or grow the regional economy

Are good ecosystem stewards

Are profitable

24

Perspectives

“Ports should effectively prepare for the impacts of climate change to ensure their role as the indispensable nodal points of global logistic systems.”

Resolution of the IAPH, Genoa, Italy May 2009

“…most ports do not appear to be thinking about, let alone actively preparing to address, the effects of climate change.”

US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009

“The insurance industry is moving from being a passive climate change sufferer that has to sustain some very expensive consequences to becoming a proactive shaper of the future.”

Geneva Association, 2009

Survey Respondents

Example

Structures Insured Against Losses

City Zoning

RI Dept. of Transportation

P&W Railroad

US Army Corps

US Coast Guard

RI Emergency Management Agency

Example

PORT OF PROVIDENCE

win

d

Future Work/Next Steps

www.seaports2100.org


Case Studies

What makes a resilient port?

How have past storms led to long-term changes in port planning?

How do ports work with government to

http://www.portoflosangeles.org

ASCE PORTS 2010 APRIL 26, 2010 - Results Direct · 2010. 5. 12. · ASCE PORTS 2010 APRIL 26, 2010...

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