As The Future Catches You : How Genomics And Other Forces Are Changing Your Life, Work, Health, And...
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Powerpoint Templates
As The Future Catches You
Created by:Anggi Paima Ulibasa Sibuea
Ribka FebrianaYasinta Fajrin
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I: Mixing Apples,
Oranges, and Floppy Disks
II: The 390:1 Gap
III: The New Rich and The
Poor
IV: Empires of The Mind
V: Data Drives Empire
VI: Genetics-The Next Dominant Language
VII: Genetics... Is A Hockey
Stick
VIII: The Most Powerful
Information System
IX: Nano World
X: Revolution... In A Few ZIP
Codes
XI: Technology Is Not Kind... It Does Not
Say “Please”
XII: Sleepless...
(And Angry) in Seattle
XIII: High Tech...High Pay...High Mobility
XIV: The Digital-
Genomics Diaspora
XV: Time Warp
Book Contents
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Slide Contents
The background:
Gap
The technology:
Digital, Genomics,
Nano
Patent Reached by the future
IMIXING APPLES, ORANGE,
AND FLOPPY DISK
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The skin and pulp of the orange is just a packaging.
The seeds contain the code.
The floppy disk is simply the container for these 1s and 0s.
It is reading and rewriting the code inside that drives change.
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To build a nation..Become an economic superpower,
Wage war effectively,Or launch a global business..
You need a fewer people, time, or capital,
And you do need technology-literate people.
We are BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE direct and deliberate control over the evolution of all life forms ON THE PLANET…
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New technologies change…LIVES…COMPANIES…COUNTRIES…
YOUR FUTURE, that of your children, and that of your
country depend on UNDERSTANDING A GLOBAL
ECONOMY DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY, UNDERSTANDING CODE,
PARTICULARLY GENETIC CODE, is today’s most powerful
technology.
IITHE 390:1 GAP
David Walton, a third-year Harvard medical student…Went to Haiti for a clinical internship…Was shocked by the poverty and disease…Wrote a long, emotional e-mail to a lifelong friend…And got a one-line response…
“Sounds pretty depressing. What else is going on down there?”
Extreme income gaps..Are so common… And so large…
That we rarely question… “Why they occur?
And why they are increasing so rapidly?”
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States are falling apart at an unprecedented rate…
Because governments and citizens do not understand…
Why technology is relevant to their daily lives… and how it changes their future.
IIITHE NEW RICH… AND THE
NEW POOR
Differences in education, particularly in scientific literacy, can lead to extreme changes in relative wealth and position V
E R Y . . . Q U I C K L Y
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The World Economy 1960-1998
Agriculture Manufacturing Services0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19601998
Global Production (%)
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Fifty years ago…
Taiwan• Being the poorest and
most isolated country• 1974, the industrial
plant grew, as did exports and competitiveness (the averages Taiwanese produced twice as much as a Mexican)
• 1990s, Taiwan had become one of the world leaders in PC and chip manufacturing
• AND A TAIWANESE WAS PRODUCING FOUR TIMES MORE WEALTH THAN A MEXICAN.
Mexico• Produced twice that of someone living in Taiwan
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Diverging Hourly Wages
(total dollar wage for manufacturing workers in US $)
Years Mexico Taiwan South Korea
Singapore
1975 1.47 0.40 0.32 0.84
1990 1.58 3.93 3.71 3.78
1999 2.12 5.62 6.71 7.18
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In the old economy…Building a billion-dollar fortune
required…Decades of hard work…A powerful host country…Thousands of workers…And thousands of storefronts.
The rule of an economyBased on knowledge and networksAre very different from those
Of a manufacturing-based economy.
TODAY IT IS JUST THE OPPOSITE.
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When you are trying to spread, and sell knowledge…
KEEPING SOMETHING “EXCLUSIVE” and “RARE” often LEADS TO A LOSS OF VALUE.
What matters most is that the purchaser becomes part of a network…And that the network keeps
growing.
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What makes money today is the knowledge necessary to process and distribute information.
Look at software, for instance.The first copy of a major computer
program costs millions…
The second costs pennies.The more people who use the program…The easier it is to exchange
information…
The more valuable the program becomes…
And the richer the company and its employees.
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In general, the companies that grow fastest are those selling ideas, not
those with the most assets.
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MUCH OF THE WORLD’S NEW WEALTH IS CREATED BY KNOWLEDGE…
MANY COUNTRIES
ARE FAILING,FALLING APART,AND DISAPPEARING.
IVEMPIRES OF THE MIND
• “The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.”
• WINSTON CHURCHILL
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Rich countries no longer need great deposits of gold or diamonds…
Or an abundance of land…Or millions of people…
THEY NEED TO EDUCATE THEIR POPULATION.
NO MORE…
THEY NEED SMART AND ENTREPRENEURIAL PEOPLE.
NO LESS…
THEY NEED A GOVERNMENT THAT PROVIDES ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY.
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NIGERIA has oilINDONESIA precious woodsSOUTH AFRICA diamonds and goldBRAZIL jungles and mineralsARGENTINA vast fertile landsCONGO minerals and gemsMEXICO silver and oilCOLOMBIA emeraldsSAUDI ARABIA oilVENEZUELA oil
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Were sometimes able to create a knowledge economy and are now inhabited by some of
the RICHEST PEOPLE on the planet.
SINGAPORE
MALAYSIA
INDIA
CHINA
UNITED STATESCANADA
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How can countries rich in
natural resources get SO POOR during this
century?
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The future belongs to SMALL POPULATIONS who build
empires of the mind, and who ignore the temptation
of—or don’t have the option of—exploiting natural
resources.
And a lot of people who were wealthy once upon a time…will once again
become VERY POOR…
VDATA DRIVES EMPIRESPerhaps there is no better example…
Of the power knowledge has…To rapidly transform an economy…Than the digital revolution.
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What distinguishes people from animals is THE ABILITY to understand abstract
concepts and to communicate these
concepts.
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Drawing on the cave wall and
Hieroglyphs
Stylized primitive drawings
and language
into simplified characters by Chinese
The Greeks simplified
all concepts
into a few letters
26 letters we use today
NOW, dominant alphabet no longer
in 26 letters but in 2 1s and 0s
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The digital alphabet encodes and transmits information…
with extraordinary speed and accuracy…
and it has become the world’s main language.
Example:• the phone may transmit01001000 01101001 00100000 01101101 01101111 01101101• the person who receives these digital strings hears
“Hi, Mom”
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When people share a common language…Regions often come together…
So too do companies.
Things change very quickly in a digital world.
The power of technology, to build and destroy.
The digital revolution is just the beginning, because a new, far more powerful revolution is brewing.
VIGENETICS…THE NEXTDOMINANT LANGUAGE
Perhaps the most important discovery of the twentieth century was to learn to identify and read the code of life.
And perhaps the most important challenge we will face in the twenty century.. Is how.. And when.. To apply this knowledge
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The Structure of DNADNA contains the code of all
life processes..Bacteria, worms, fish,
birds.. Humans..
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Genetics is a very powerful instrumentSo we all have a stake and a reason
To understandAnd participate in debatesAs to what should not do
As we study and alterThe code that governs
All life on the planet.
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How long you, your children..And your grandchildren..
Live..Depends increasingly..
On understanding the human genome..And on understanding..
The genetic code of the organisms that attack our bodies.
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The variation between your genome and others is minuscule
Small variations within a genetic code can have enormous impact
Minutes change in a genome are enough to make differences of
physical appearance and also to make some healthy and others very
sick.
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How the World Lives and Dies
1900 1990 2020
Communicable diseases FluDiarrheaPregnancy problemsDepressionHeart disease
Heart diseaseDepressionRoad accidentsStrokesChronic pulmonary diseaseChronic non-communicable diseases will cause 73% of deaths
How and when one gets these diseases depends in part on genes..
And in part on one’s lifestyle.Smoking, for instance, can trigger gene mutations and
lead to cancer.
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Societies and peoples who understand the genetic alphabet..Are likely to LIVE LONGER..AND GET
RICHER.But most societies do not understand genetic discovery…
Or the challenges that arise from these discoveries..
And that makes them, for all practical purposes..
Functionally illiterate..In the language that codes all
life on this planet.
VII
GENETICS IS..A HOCKEY STICK
“We are learning the language in which God created life.. Without a doubt, this is the most important, most wondrous map ever produced by humankind”
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Robert Fleishmann & Craig Venter (1995)
• Published the first full genome of a living organism• The first time that scientist could see a complete
map of how a life was programmed.• Marked the beginning of new era in mankind’s history• Bringing standarization, mechanization, and
supercomputers-> unleash an avalanche of knowledge
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The development of biology
In vivo •Systematically observing and experimenting on live organism
In vitro •Moved “indoors” into small breakers, test tubes, petri dishes, and other glass containers
In silico •Combining the power of lab with that of a computer
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By using the in silico method:
Increase the identification of gene-data
Dropping the cost of sequencing
Cost collapse, KNOWLEDGE AND PATENTS EXPLODED
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Patent
Include anything under the sun made by man
1971: allowed patents on living organism and genes
1988: patentable not just bacteria and plants, but entire animals.
1991: USPTO received an overwhelming 4000 request for patents on various expressed sequences tags (ESTs)
1995: patents increased to 22.000/year
1996: increased to an unmanageable-> 500.000/year
Patent office was forced to change the rules as to how one could apply for basic genetic patents.
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Patent statistics reflect just part of the change
Scientist are overwhelmed by new knowledge..
Every week, every day..If you graph this knowledge..
It is not a straight upward curveOr a gradual curve..
Genetic knowledge is a hockey stick..
It bounces along the bottom of the graph for decades..
And suddenly explodes upward
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As the digital and genetics revolutions converge..
So will their languages..A, T, C, Gs…
And 1s and 0s,,Are interchangeable..Ever more powerful data
processors,,Some of which..Could be based on
DNA
VIIITHE MOST POWERFUL INFORMATION SYSTEM
“Do not explain why it can’t be done. DISCOVER how it CAN be done”
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The machines and technology coming out of the digital and genetic revolutions may allow people to leverage their mental capacity a thousand.. A million.. A trillionfold.
The world’s best programmers are increasingly gravitating toward biology, BIOINFORMATICS AND BIOCOMPUTING
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The world’s most powerful and compact coding and information-processing system .. Is a GENOME
Blend silicon chips with DNA, so memory chips could grow organically and pack a lot more processing power into much smaller space.
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SMASH- Simple, Many, and Self-healing
Computers are increasingly designed to act as collection of individuals cells that work in parallel
to solve problems and can fix themselves
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One way to understand how genes code what they do is through gene chips
• Instead of placing transistors on the chip, it placed hybrid bits of DNA• Lights up under the laser
Chips are the result of convergence and synergy among various technology
Gene chips will lead to personalized medicine
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Genomics, bioinformatics, and biocomputing are merging and they are
beginning to explode a lot of myths…
Medicine is going to change
fast
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IXNANO WORLD
We can already build pretty small things..Japanese engineer’s have produced a car..
That looks and operates like any other car..Except that it is the size of a grain of rice.
Fun..But trivial compared to what
Is coming
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NANO TECHNOLOGY
Robert Curl Jr., Harold Kroto, and Richard Smalley discover and build
new molecules: Carbon
Nov 2000• Nanosubs: partly organic and
partly inorganic• Someday, ‘nanonurses may be
able to seek specific diseased cells within the body and deliver molecular doses of medicine
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Genomics is teaching us what life really is on a nano scale
What is extraordinary is how widespread and powerful the technology base of the knowledge economy is gettingAnd how discoveries in one area lead to breakthroughs in other fields quickly
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Bioinformatics Biocomputing
It Revolution
Age of Knowledge Economy
Molecular Revolution
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But as these changes accelerate..
Much of the world remains isolated and ignorant…
About technologies that..Will fundamentally alter
everyone’s relative economic status..
And life expectancy.
XRevolution…… In a Few Zip
Codes
“The World is divided into a golden billion.. and everyone
else.”
Vladimir PutinPresident of Russia
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Talking About Patent
• Protect the application with the "Licensing" or "patent“.
• Number of patents that are considered to be
one of several measures as an indication of the ability to compete.
• Not all patents are good or valuable, but being unable to generate patent is VERY BAD
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Talking About Patent (cont.)
If you can not create knowledge and patents, It is impossible to launch new-high tech companies
There was little new knowledge
to sell
And little economic
growth
Number of Companies listed on Buenos Aires Stock Exchange
Y 1995 Y 2000
145 125
Means
Impacts
example
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PEOPLE NEEDED TO PRODUCE ASIGLE U.S. PATENT
Country People Per Patent (1998)
United States 2,955
Japan 3,914
Switzerland 5,244
Taiwan 5,812
Canada 8,227
Germany 8,778
South Korea 13,653
France 14,658
United Kingdom 16,568
Australia 22,169
Singapore 25,735
Spain 127,273
Venezuela 772,414
Argentina 778,261
Mexico 1,267,532
Brazil 1,869,318
India 10,647,319
Indonesia 21,610,345
Talking About Patent (cont.)
What matters in modern economy is:
knowlegde
It is what you live off..It is what power
growth..
And from patents in the last twenty years…
Is not that hard to predict who gets rich..
And who gets poor
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Not only Indonesian who produces less patent, but as less as Brazilian and Mexican do.
Talking About Patent (cont.)
Brazil generation less breakthrough knowledge, and Brazil is less relevant in the global-knowledge market
In 1997, the Mexican patent office received 10.531 patents requests, but only 4% of the request came from Mexican nationals.
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Things do not have to be this way. Given the right training, capital and instruments,
Brazilian and Mexican scientist can be competitive.
Talking About Patent (cont.)
For example:
Sao Paulo gives 1% of its tax revenue to a research institute, FAPEST.
And in 2000, FAPEST published the world first plant-disease genome,
Xylella Fastidiosa, which destroy oranges, grapes, almonds, plums, peaches, oaks and elms.
published
Xylella Fastidiosa
the world first plant-disease
genome
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Talking About Patent (cont.)
Most developing country are not competitive it the global knowledge
economy. In 1998, a single company IBM obtained more US patent than the total
granted to 139 countries139 Countri
es2522 2685
IBM generate more patent alone than 139 countries did together (u.s patent granted 1998)
IBM
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In a borderless world, those who do not educate and keep their citizens, will lose most intellectual wars..
Talking About Patent (cont.)
Not only Company that accumulating global brain power.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) alumni and faculty :
have founded more than 4000 companies
Generating over $230 billion in a yearly sales
Had 1.500 patents pending in 2000
In fact, Many of MIT’s alumni and Faculty..
Are Foreigners who chose to stay in USA
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As a developing country, you can lower inflation, reduce corruption, cut your budget, privatize, and still not get rich.
Talking About Patent (cont.)
WHY?
Because you are not
generating knowledge, but product.
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We can get a sense how knowledge-intensive an economy is by dividing:
If the result:
• >1 : the country exports more knowledge-based products than raw materials
• <1 : the economy remains vulnerable to commodity cycle
Talking About Patent (cont.)
Year Chile Argentina Brazil G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA
Asian Tigers (Hongkong, south korea, singapore, taiwan)
1997 0.01 0.12 0.22 2.17 0.74
1995 0.01 0.07 0.23 1.67 1.80
High Tech vs Low Tech Exports
Value Added ExportsCommodity Exports
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Talking About Patent (cont.)
“If you don’t export
knowledge, you don’t get rich”
And for those who understand
this, countries or company,
will generating knowledge
and invest in technology
They are getting richer….
A lot richer.
How can we increase the ability to generate
knowledge?
Growth and wealth…
Will be distributed unevenly..
As long as few commodities..
Pay more attention,
To their children’s science education
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A scary world when,
The long term..Is no longer measured in century, or decades..
But in years..
And some times,In months.
“Technology accelerates trends”
It took the telephone 35 years to get into 1/4 of us home
Tv took 26..
Radio 22..
PCs 16
The Internet took 7
Talking About Patent (cont.)
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XITechnology is NOT KIND… IT DOES NOT SAY
PLEASEIn the last decade of the twentieth century, the global economy bred…Mergers and start-up on an unprecedented scale..$908,000,000,000 in mergers during 1997 alone…A 47% increase over the previous year. By January 2000….
In one month..There were $244,500,000,000 worth of mergers
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• Largest mergers and most successful new companies related to telecommunications, Internet, Software and Finance, there is quite a lot of the "Digital Revolution" merger.
• but the Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals and Agribusiness as well as the digital revolution cause a very large merger and restructuring. In this latter group is the strength of Genetics Code application, which is likely to underestimate the power you have.
Talking About Technology
Massive changes
Knowledge
Economy
Not only computer
and telecom
The most basic
industry on the planet
see
Instead of growing grain for flour. Farmers are starting to grow Medicine, Plastic, Fuel
But only those farmer with knowledge and access to new technology, can hope to prosper
Agriculture, Agribusines
s
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Talking About Technology (cont.)
A seed is an instrument designed to execute a genetic program. that transform soil, water and sun into wood.. Flower… fruit…
Whoever can read an understand a
seed’s genetic code. Can Change IT
Agriculture is simply one example.
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Today we have seen a change in the nature of Agribusiness "Plant Reprogramming“
Year 1999 Monsanto and Dupont sale up to 40% of all soybeans produced in the U.S. and nearly 80% of the seed corn.
Dow Chemical has produced corn that become a biodegradable plastic.
Dupont Polyester fibers are like silk.
Banana and tomato mixture is adjusted to a mixture of edible vaccines to prevent diseases, such as cholera, hepatitis.
Treatment of heart failure derived from the Foxglove extracts
aspirin is derived from the wool and so on.
Talking About Technology (cont.)
What is different is, we are not
just extracting
substances, but
reprograming plants to express specific
compounds
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XIISLEEPLESS……(and angry)
in SEATLLESome think that the only people anguishing about massive economic change are the colorful protesters who gather dressed as bioengineered vegetables outside meeting of the World Trade Organization the World Bank. Or the World Economic Forum ..Wrong…Corporate kahunas are just as concerned and scared about the rate of rapid change
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why do people were sleepless, frustrated,
angry in Seattle?
Talking about sleepless in Seattle
Everyone, just as people and regions are scare of multinational behemoths. EVEN MEGA-COMPANIES are also terrified, that
they might be not be large enough, or fast enough
to compete & survive.
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Talking about sleepless in Seattle (cont.)
Example
1 Drugs
May cost $500,000
,000
Take over a decade
Wh
en c
reat
ing
a n
ew d
rug
,
Ph
arm
aceu
tica
l Co
mp
anie
s, F
or
inst
ance
:But even if large
companies, GROW, MERGE and DOMINATE.
They still hard to monopolize, or even attract the best brain
Some do not need a lot of resources,
time or people to get very
rich.
Small companies can generate a great deal of wealth and get very
large, very quick, even fewer employees.
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The major chemical companies. Many had also feared Genomic Co., Because technology has
developed very quickly. And not to be underestimated. Because the sample in the
Computer industry and the company, but is later able to acquire a business is worth more than an
old company. And for a long time as well.
Talking about sleepless in Seattle (cont.)
Microsoft, Intel VS. IBM
AOL VS. Time Warner
Yahoo, Amazon VS. The New York Times or Any
other medias
eBay VS. Sears Roebuck
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Knowledge and databases, continue to expand at unprecedented rates. Even after the U.S Patent and Trademark Office revised the rules of gene patents.
At year 2000, Genomics drove 25,000 new patent. 25% more than in 1999. more than all internet or computer business.
Talking about sleepless in Seattle (cont.)
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XIIIHigh Tech. High Pay. High
Mobility
“The Great thing in this world is not so much where we stand, as
in what direction we are moving.”
Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr.
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High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility
Distance and Abstract changes in technology
They will change your life, where you live, what you do, what you earn. Whatever your current profession.
Your ability to understand and surf waves of change, will determine how well you do as you change Jobs. Every decade, or 5 years, or every few months.
If you are not stolen away by some company every few years (or months) means…..
You are not CONSIDERED A HOT PROPERTY
stability is a mark of shame
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The only way to make a successful transition from being a corporate man or woman,
is to learn how to understand and use new concepts and technologies.meanwhile, a skill usually learned in college and graduate school
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
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High Tech=High Pay
JOBU.S. MEDIAN SALARY (1997)
ALL OCCUPATION $22,734 Engineering managers
72,675
Electrical engineers
59,155
Geologists 52,395Computer engineers
50,606
Chemists 43,971
Biology scientists 43,701
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
In the U.S., the difference in salary as a result of the study was based at the High Tech salary will be higher than other occupations (All Occupations) at least 2-3 times
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Various Country have come up with different method to support Education
• South Korea• The United State
• Mexico
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
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South Korea• The country spends 3.7% of GNP on Education• South Korean parents spend almost the same amount on
educating their children as the state does.• Paying for best tutors in English, Math, and science because the
country is a strict meritocracy• So At the end of high school, they take a standardized test.
Top Score Student
Must go to
Korea Universit
y
They not choosing their major
The Major depends on the Test score
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
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And Even after you graduate..
You still tested
It’s a brutal system, but it brings South Korea became one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and technology leader country
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
(Still)South Korea
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USA• Us parent spend extra money on their
children’s education• Plus all those extracurricular activity, such
as karate, summer camp, music, basketball, soccer, art, etc.
For instance, US provide education most likely as South Korea does.
US succeed maintaining current leadership in technology, and also attracting extraordinary talented people from other countries
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
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Mexico
In many developing countries, the educational situation is dire. Many Latin American parents profess a passion for educating their children
But statistic and government policies seems to negate this• Only 60% of the richest children getting a
collage degree• And only 35% from upper middle class
bother graduating from college.
High Tech. High Pay. High Mobility (cont.)
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XIVThe Digital-Genomic Diaspora
“When Progress is moving as fast as it is now. Recalling its victims is
difficult”
Michael LewisAmerican Non-Fiction Author and Financial
Journalist
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The Digital-Genomic Diaspora (cont.)
Many of those people wishing to work in US. Can now do so freely, Without visa, or visit or visits form INS.
Manufacturing Economy•You had to travel to the factory and put things together or process paper at specific desk
Knowledge Economy•You can work at your desk, in your home, in a hotel, in a plane. Everywhere.
It caused:• Only 1 out of 3 people in
California 9-5 job, working on site.
• 80% of Sun Microsystems employee work home part-time
• annual income of up to $ 50k Home-Only Teleworkers are more than two times the average income.
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Part of the answer is that . . .
Technology empowers individuals . . .
And makes it hard to prevent democracy . . .
Which in turn allow people to ask . . .
Do I really wish to remain a shareholder of this state?
(increasingly often the answer is NO!)
The Digital-Genomic Diaspora (cont)
Why the sudden impulse
to secede?
And why are so many
now success
ful?
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So..Governments have far less leeway . . .
If they abuse their power . . .If they ignore citizen-shareholders
They will tear apart the state
The Digital-Genomic Diaspora (cont)
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XVTIME WARP
“Getting a genome sequence has never been an end.. Just
a start”
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Clones
• Is not a photocopy• Teach us a lot about what is nature and what is nurture
about how much our genes govern out thoughts and actions
Scientist and companies are racing flat-out to decode, understand, rewrite portions of various genomes.
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What our world looks like in fifty or hundred
years..Depends to a significant
extent..On our ability to adopt and
adapt..The ethical, political, and
economic challenges..Of the digital-genomics
area.
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You can stand on the sidelines and assume that fate will guide
thingsOr you can help yourself,
your family, your company, and your
country navigate this wondrous and scary
adventure
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Powerpoint TemplatesGrazie
Gra
zie
The End… (ACTUALLY,
JUST THE BEGINNING)
Gra
zie