Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission ===================================
32
From the Lab to the Market to Standards The Role of California Energy Policy California Lighting Technology Center 1 Nov. 2006 =================================== Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission =================================== (916) 654-4930 [email protected] http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/r osenfeld.html Or just Google “Art Rosenfeld” Start =Google, 30 min.
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From the Lab to the Market to Standards The Role of California Energy Policy California Lighting Technology Center 1 Nov. 2006 ===================================. Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission =================================== (916) 654-4930 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission ===================================
From the Lab to the Market to StandardsThe Role of California Energy Policy
California Lighting Technology Center1 Nov. 2006
===================================Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner
California Energy Commission
===================================
(916) 654-4930
[email protected]://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
Or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”Start =Google, 30 min.
2
1949
3
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
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65
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69
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99
20
01
20
03
20
05
tho
us
an
d B
tu/$
(in
$2
00
0)
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
4
Energy Consumption in the United States 1949 - 2005
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Qu
ads/
Yea
r
$ 1.7 Trillion
$ 1.0 Trillion
New Physical Supply = 25 Q
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1% per year)
70 Quads per year saved or avoided corresponds to 1 Billion cars off the road
5
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?
Easiest to tease out is cars
– In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons
– Now about 21 miles per gallon
– If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices
– But we still pay $450 Billion per year
– If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year
Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year Appliances and Buildings are more complex
– We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).
6
How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?
Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies
Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses
– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide
Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is transportation, and 1/3 is buildings and industry.
Billion $
Space Heating 40Air Conditioning 30Refrigerators 15Fluorescent Tube Lamps 5Compact Floursecent Lamps 5Total 95
7
A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiencyfrom Vice-President Dick Cheney
“Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus”
“About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency”
Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001
Cheney could have noted that 72 quads/year saved in the US alone, would fuel one Billion cars, compared to a world car count of only 600 Million
8
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2005 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
96
0
19
62
19
64
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66
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70
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19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
California
United States
∆= 4,000kWh/yr
= $400/capita
9
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar at Market Exchange Rate)
To
ns
of
CO
2 p
er p
erso
n
Canada Australia
S. Korea
California
Mexico
United States
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Switzerland
Japan
10
Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar )
To
ns
of
CO
2 p
er p
erso
n
Canada
Australia
S. Korea
California
Mexico
United States
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
New Zealand
Switzerland
Japan
IndiaChina
11
Per Capita Electricity Consumption
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
year
kW
h/p
ers
on
Red States 2004 ElectionUnited StatesBlue States 2004 ElectionCalifornia
12 Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968
Growth = 1.5%/yr
13
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
75%
60%
25%20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
1972
= 1
00)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
SEER = 13
14 Source: David Goldstein
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Av
era
ge
En
erg
y U
se
pe
r U
nit
So
ld (
kW
h/y
r)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Re
frig
era
tor
vo
lum
e (
cu
bic
fe
et)
Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)
Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year) 71% reduction in 28 yrs
= 4.4% year
1st Federal Standard 1992
15 Source: David Goldstein
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Av
era
ge
En
erg
y U
se
or
Pri
ce
0
5
10
15
20
25
Re
frig
era
tor
vo
lum
e (
cu
bic
fe
et)
Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year)
Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)
Refrigerator Price in 1983 $
$ 1,270
$ 462
16
New Refrigerator Energy Use: 71% will be saved when stock completely turns over to 2001 Standards
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
At 1974 Efficiency At 2002 Efficiency
Bil
lio
n k
Wh
per
Yea
r
Energy Needed
Energy Needed
Energy Saved
17
Value of Energy to be Saved (at 8.5 cents/kWh, retail price) vs. Several Sources of Supply in 2005 (at 3 cents/kWh, wholesale price)
Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds
renewables
100 Million 1 KW PV systems
conventional hydro
nuclear energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bill
ion
$ (
US
)/ye
ar
in 2
00
5
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators冰箱
Air Conditioners 空调
TWh
2000 Stds
2000 Stds
2005 Stds
2005 Stds
If Energy Star
If Energy Star
TW
H/Y
ear
1.5
4.5
6.0
3.0
7.5
Val
ue
(bil
lio
n $
/yea
r)
Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements
Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL
Value of TWh
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators 冰箱
Air Conditioners
空调
Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh
Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh
三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比
标准生效后， 10年节约电量
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Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,0001
97
5
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20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
GW
h/y
ear
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003
20
California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,00019
76
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Mill
ions
of
$200
2 pe
r Y
ear
Forecast
Profits decoupled from sales
Performance Incentives
Market Restructuring
Crisis
IRP2% of 2004
IOU Electric Revenues
Public Goods Charges
21
Now Turning Specifically to Lighting
Lighting accounts for 6% of US energy use (2005 EIA Data) Or ~15 % of US electricity, see next slides.
22
End Uses as Percent of Electricity In Residential SectorUS from Annual Energy Outlook
US Residential Sales = 1,300 BkWh
Other Uses23%
Televisions + Computers
5%
Washers + Dryers6%
Refrig + Cooking14%
Heating and cooling34%
Lighting 18%
= 240 BkWh
23
End Uses as Percent of Electricity In Commercial SectorUS from Annual Energy Outlook
US Commercial Sales = 1,230 BkWh
Heating and Cooling29%
Refrig + Cooking6%
Lighting19%
Office Equipment9%
Other Uses37%
= 230 BkWh
24
Commercial Lighting Power Density, New Buildings
4
2.51.5 1.2
10
7.5
6
4.5
15
9
7.5
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1973 Prior toStandards
Title 24 1978 Title 24 1985 Title 24 2005
W/s
f
Commercial Office Lighting Commercial Retail Lighting - low Commercial Retail Lighting - high
25
Average Consumption for Indoor Lighting Large Commercial Office Buildings -- SCE (Stds through 2001)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
kW
h p
er
Sq
ua
re F
oo
t p
er
Ye
ar
1% per year improvement, more with 2005 Stds
26
Title 24 Residential Lighting Impact
Title 24 1978
~ 5-10% lighting energy use saved
Title 24 1985
~ 10-15% of lighting energy use saved
Title 24 2005
~ 20% of lighting energy use saved
27
CFL Costs
Costs of CFLs have dropped….
$15 to $25 from ~1982 to ~1995
(little change)
$3 to $10 today
Reference: ESource Lighting Atlas, 2005
28
Standard 2-lamp T8 Electronic Ballast– Early 1990’s = $35-$40– Today = $10 to $15
Electronic Ballast Costs
29
Linear Fluorescent Costs
Reference: ESource Lighting Atlas, 1997 & 2005
“Standard” T8 lamp
In 1997 cost $4.61
In 2003 cost $2.44
30
Title 20 (Appliance Efficiency Standards)Savings from T-20 (2005), effective ~ 2007.
General Service Incandescent Lamps Saving 255 million kWh annually in California (5%
energy savings)
Incandescent Reflector Lamps Saving 626 million kWh annually in California
Metal Halide Luminaires Saving 38 million kWh annually in California
Total T-20 Lighting Saving: 0.9 BkWh/yr = 1/3 typical 500 MW plant
31
Title 24 – 2005
(Building Energy Efficiency Standards)Annual lighting energy savings, new construction:
Percentage GWh
Single Family 23.8% 55.5
Multi-Family 23.3% 9.1
Nonresidential 9.8% 84.1
Outdoor 25.1% 17.1
Signs 25% 2.7
Total T-24 Lighting Annual Saving: 0.17 BkWh 1st year,
->1.7 BkWh 10th yr
Add T-20 + T-24 for 2.6 BkWh = 1 typical 500-MW power plant
32
Title 24 – 2008
Proposed lighting changes include the following: Residential Lighting Outdoor lighting Nonresidential indoor lighting Sign Lighting GU-24 Hotel Key Cards (under review)
Next Workshop Date (tentative) December 6, 2006
