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Arran Locality Partnership
Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership
Arran – What the Profile will cover?
• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015• Population change – from 2012 to 2026• General health & life expectancy• Household Incomes• Education ‐ results at key stages• Housing – average house prices• Key strengths and needs
Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 )
• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups.
• Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire”
• The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5. It was also more likely to be selected as the most important.
• In the Arran 45% of respondents selected this aim as one of their top 5 aims.
• However a higher proportion of Arran residents (55%)selected “Our young people are successful learners,confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens” as their top aim
People’s Panel
55
45 45
34 34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Our young peopleare successful
learners, confidentindividuals,effective
contributors andresponsible citizens
We live our livessafe from crime,
disorder and danger
We have strong,resilient andsupportive
communities wherepeople take
responsibility fortheir own actions
and how they affectothers
We live in well‐designed,
sustainable placeswhere we are able
to access theamenities and
services we need
We realise our fulleconomic potentialwith more and
betteremployment
opportunities forour people
Percentage of Arran respondents selecting priority as a top 5 aim
• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.
• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:
– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?
– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans?
Locality Planning workshops
47.9
61.2
70.9
53.2
60.9
38.5
43.6
59.5
91.3
19.7
21.6
9.3
26.6
17.3
36.1
30.8
4.0
0.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Arran
Irvine
Kilwinning
Three Towns
Garnock Valley
North Coast
Cumbrae
Third Sector Interface
Youth Groups
Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook
OverallPositiveNeutral
OverallNegative
Population Change
4,589
21,090
39,085
17,255
21,450
32,981
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Arran GarnockValley
Irvine Kilwinning NorthCoast
ThreeTowns
Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Popu
latio
n
Arran Population Projection 2012‐2026
0 to 1718 to 6465+
‐47%
‐32%
+15%
Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 -Arran
Working Age18‐64yrs
Over 65s
0‐17yrs
Arran 2012
Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016
16%
52%
32%
Working Age18‐64yrs
14%
37%
49%
0‐17yrsOver 65s
Arran 2026
Population change to 2026 summary
Between 2012 and 2026 the population of:• North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -3.6%
(from 137,560 to 132,587), while Arran will decrease by 25% (4,624 to 3,468)
• Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the Arran locality (up by 15%) - half the North Ayrshire increase of 31% for the same period.
• Under 18s in Arran will decrease by a third (-32%) compared with a North Ayrshire decrease of -9%
• Working age residents will decline by around one half (-47%) in Arran compared with a decrease of -13% across North Ayrshire
Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire
73.8
77.1
73.5
75.9
73.2
76.5
74.4
78.2
70.0
71.0
72.0
73.0
74.0
75.0
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014
Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014
ScotlandEast AyrshireNorth AyrshireSouth Ayrshire
Arran 80.9 years
MALES
FEMALES
Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
76.5 years
North Ayrshire
81.0 years
Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates
Scotland 76.6 years
Arran83.3 years
Scotland 80.8 years
69.0
76.6
80.9
92.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Irvine Castlepark NorthIrvine Fullarton
Irvine Castlepark SouthStevenston North West
Kilwinning West and BlacklanIrvine BroomlandsArdrossan Central
Irvine CentralIrvine BourtreehillSaltcoats Central
Irvine EastSaltcoats North EastDalry East and Rural
Kilbirnie South and LongbarLargs Central and Cumbrae
Stevenston HayocksBeith East and RuralIrvine Tarryholme
Kilwinning PennyburnArdrossan North East
Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaBeith WestScotland
Dalry WestKilwinning Central and North
Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn
Irvine Perceton and LawthornWest Kilbride and Seamill
Kilbirnie NorthSaltcoats North West
Largs NorthSpringside and Rural
Largs SouthArdrossan North West
ArranFairlie and Rural
Skelmorlie and RuralKilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside
Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones)
Arran in Yellow
75.5
80.8
83.3
89.2
65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0
Saltcoats North EastKilwinning West and Blacklan
Ardrossan CentralIrvine Fullarton
Saltcoats CentralIrvine Castlepark South
Irvine BourtreehillStevenston Hayocks
Kilbirnie South and LongbarIrvine Castlepark NorthArdrossan North East
Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn
Stevenston North WestKilwinning Pennyburn
Beith WestIrvine East
Saltcoats North WestLargs Central and Cumbrae
ScotlandIrvine Central
Irvine Perceton and LawthornKilwinning Central and North
Dalry WestBeith East and Rural
Ardrossan North WestLargs South
Kilbirnie NorthDalry East and Rural
Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaArran
Irvine TarryholmeSpringside and Rural
Largs NorthIrvine Broomlands
Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and WoodsideWest Kilbride and Seamill
Skelmorlie and RuralFairlie and RuralFemale Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones)
Arran in Yellow
Education
Household Income
£30,537
£34,625£36,402
£0
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£30,000
£35,000
North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain
Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire)
North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain
15.5
28.7
20.0
14.1
8.8
11.9
1.0
12.2
22.7
17.2
13.9
10.2
19.8
4.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
£0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+
Percen
tage of h
ouseho
lds
Gross Household Income (% of households by locality )
Arran Garnock Valley Irvine
Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns
North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain
House Prices
193,000
150,000
133,000 126,500
118,000
92,000 85,000 81,500
75,000 68,750 60,000
‐
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Med
ian Price (£
)Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements
Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015
48.4
27.6
‐20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0% Cha
nge 20
04 ‐20
14Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014
Summary
Strengths & Needs_____________________________________
Summary
Strengths
• Lower negativity in relation to Locality Planning Approach
• Lowest projected increase in residents aged over 65 (+15%)
• Some of the highest life expectancy in North Ayrshire
• Strong educational attainment in Lamlash
Needs
• Overall population decrease of a quarter projected to 2026
• Largest decline of working age and school age residents in North Ayrshire to 2026
• Highest house prices – less affordability
• Rural pockets of lower household incomes
Next steps
• Six summary Locality Profiles• Comparator tables across 6 areas• Profiles made available on CPP web pages• Downloadable PDFs on new website