Transportation Alternatives Program Workshop and Public Comment
arpa.e digital transportation workshop · 2016-05-16 · arpa.e digital transportation workshop...
Transcript of arpa.e digital transportation workshop · 2016-05-16 · arpa.e digital transportation workshop...
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arpa.e digital transportation workshop
jason rugolo program director
team:
justin manzo technical contractorgeoff short technical contractorpaul d’angio technical contractormike kane fellow
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our theme for the day:
bits not atoms.(or we will be miserable and doomed.)
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171 flights
38 airports
10 carriers
180,000 mi
18d 10h 41m
100% misery
map tool: openFlights.org
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map tool: openFlights.org
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map tool: openFlights.org
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air travel = 2 Q
passenger = 18 Q
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arpa.e has invested in advanced transportation since the beginning
.natural gas vehicles
.electric vehicles
.lightweighting
.optimal route planning and incentives
.powertrain efficiency for autonomous vehicles
.etc
unifying theme:
the new technologies we develop must have market pull(or else they won’t matter)
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market pull => make transportation better => cheaper, faster, convenient
JEVON’S PARADOX
In economics, the Jevons paradox (/ˈdʒɛvənz/; sometimes Jevons effect) occurs when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used (reducing the amount necessary for any one use), but the rate of consumption of that resource rises because of increasing demand.[1] The Jevons paradox is perhaps the most widely known paradox in environmental economics.[2] However, governments and environmentalists generally assume that efficiency gains will lower resource consumption, ignoring the possibility of the paradox arising.[3]
-Wikipedia.
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16,000 mi/cap (the US "luxurious" number)
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11e9 people(UN mean prediction)
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1 moon round trip
= 460,200 mi
= 36% of lifetime miles
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In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the
city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.
One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the
horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows.
150,000 horses at 15-30 lbs/day > 3,000,000 lbs/day
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nhts travel purposes
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passenger transportation trichotomy
communication labor experience
to convey or consume information to physically affect environment predominantly to “experience”
we transport ourselves with the objective of:
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someday, we will only travel when we want to.
(and transportation energy will plummet)
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day 1: telecommunication
day 2: telelabor
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Jason Rugolo, Ph.D. Program Director
Justin Manzo, Ph.D. Tech SETAGeoff Short, Ph.D. Tech SETAPaul D’Angio, Ph.D. Tech SETAMike Kane, Ph.D. Fellow
opportunities in “telelabor”
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drawings: Mike Kane
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bring telework to labor jobs
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drawings: Mike Kane
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serious limitations
. hardware cost
. perception
. intelligence
. decision making
. implementation
drawings: Mike Kane
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drawings: Mike Kane
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let humans do what they’re good at,
and leave the rest to robots.
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let humans do what they’re good at,
and leave the rest to robots.
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drawings: Mike Kane
. save on passenger travel
. process intensification
. save on HVAC
. save on lighting
. increase productivity
. make labor workers happier
. use cheaper robots
. less expensive implementation
advantages of telelabor
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telelabor makes labor jobs better.
autonomy eliminates them.
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why don’t we do this already?
we’ve started, but it’s
hard and expensive.
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. operator immersion
. better perception
. facile controls
. role of hapitcs
. 3d
. extra-sensory
. sliding autonomy
. minimal cognitive loading
. minimal physical loading
how do we control these manipulators? the human machine interface
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robotic manipulation technical space
autonomy
fully autonomous
human IN the loop
co
st
$1k
human ON the loop
$10k
$100k
$1MM
$10MM
small fully automated factory
partiallyautomatedfactory
$100MM
3rd axis:capability
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robotic manipulation technical space
autonomy
fully autonomous
human IN the loop
co
st
$1k
human ON the loop
$10k
$100k
$1MM
$10MM
small fully automated factory
partiallyautomatedfactory
$100MM
3rd axis:capability
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other applications in energy:
nuclear plants
wind turbine blade inspecting
harsh or dangerous (power lines, oil derrick)
all power plants
dull, dangerous, dirty, …, lot of that in energy.