Around the World In 30 Minutes October 2011
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Transcript of Around the World In 30 Minutes October 2011
Around the World In
30 MinutesOctober 2011
Beech Island South Carolina
Industrial Pipes
U.S. Economy: Employment
16-19
20-24
25-54
55+
65+
Illegal Aliens Apprehended
Real Estate Dip?
Mortgage Originations by Investors
Refinancing Hard To DoBuy Back Bad Loans
Higher FeesSecond Mortgages
Housing: What to Do?Refi 22.5 mil Houses
Leftover TARPBank Equity Ownership
Fiscal Drag from Federal, State, Local Gov’ts
Small BusinessesLoans
TrainingGov’t Regulation
Operation Twist?
Short-term Stimulus
Medium-term: Spending Cuts
Corporate Taxes12.5/25/35Loopholes
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2009 2010 2011 2012
U.S. Economic Growth: Lost Decade? (% Change Year over Year)
Forecast
Zero
Double Dip?External
Save the Euro?
Unit Labor Costs
Breakup Euro?
What Are Businesses to
Do?
IGER.csuci.edu
Why IGER?Bridge to Pacific Rim
Export
Asia: Where Action Is
Asia’s Contribution to Global GDP Growth
Investments in Asia
Asia Place to ProduceInvest
Sell
AsiaNot Just Cheap
Goods
Computational Photography
Video
Who’s Bigger? China or Japan
U.S. Treasury Securities8% of all
25% of foreign owned
ChinaBig Consumer
China’s Love Affair with Cars
Buy a Car and Buy a Flat
House Prices for Asian Cities
Gov’t PoliciesPurchase
RestrictionsProperty TaxesHigher Interest
Rates
China Outlook ?ST: RE Bubble
MT: Healthy Growth
Santa Barbara County
Data Source: Labor Market Information Division, State of California and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Aug-05
Dec-05Apr-0
6
Aug-06
Dec-06Apr-0
7
Aug-07
Dec-07Apr-0
8
Aug-08
Dec-08Apr-0
9
Aug-09
Dec-09Apr-1
0
Aug-10
Dec-10Apr-1
1
Aug-11
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Seasonally AdjustedUnemployment Rate
Santa Barbara County United States CA
% U
nem
ploy
ed
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Santa Barbara CountyNet Migration
Num
ber o
f Net
Mig
rant
s
Source: CA Department of Finance
Data Source: Labor Market Information Division, State of California and California Economic Forecast
Farm
Professional & Business Services
Education and Healthcare
Leisure and Hospitality
State and Local Government
-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
Santa Barbara CountyChange in Employment (2009-2010)
Aug-05
Dec-05Apr-0
6
Aug-06
Dec-06Apr-0
7
Aug-07
Dec-07Apr-0
8
Aug-08
Dec-08Apr-0
9
Aug-09
Dec-09Apr-1
0
Aug-10
Dec-10Apr-1
1
Aug-11
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSanta Barbara County CA
Year
-to-Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Data Source: California Association of Realtors
Data Source: California Association of Realtors
Aug-05
Dec-05Apr-0
6
Aug-06
Dec-06Apr-0
7
Aug-07
Dec-07Apr-0
8
Aug-08
Dec-08Apr-0
9
Aug-09
Dec-09Apr-1
0
Aug-10
Dec-10Apr-1
1
Aug-11
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSeasonally AdjustedSanta Barbara County CA
Aug 2005
Dec 2005
Apr 2006
Aug 2006
Dec 2006
Apr 2007
Aug 2007
Dec 2007
Apr 2008
Aug 2008
Dec 2008
Apr 2009
Aug 2009
Dec 2009
Apr 2010
Aug 2010
Dec 2010
Apr 2011
Aug 2011
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
Santa Barbara CountyForeclosures
Santa Barbara Metro California
Perc
ent o
f Sin
gle
Fam
ily H
omes
Source: Zillow.com
Source: Radius Commercial Real Estate and California Economic Forecast
%
Source: Radius Commercial Real Estate and California Economic Forecast
Wise, Strong, Rich
DrSohn.com
(not Dr.Sohn.com)