Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert...

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BIOD 706 / GOVT 739 X X spring 2016 x X N UCLEAR B IOLOGICAL AND C HEMICAL W EAPONS P OLICY AND S ECURITY BIOD 706 / GOVT 739 George Mason University School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs Instructor: CP Blair 1 BIOD 706 / GOVT 739 This course navigates the terrain of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons policy and security via four broad routes: 1. Scientific and Technological principles, requirements, avenues, and barriers to the development, production, stockpiling, transfer, and use of NBC weapons, as well as their effects. 2. Historical, Extant, and Possible Future Realities of NBC weapons vis-à-vis perceived security considerations and policy (largely from an American perspective). 3. The Nonproliferation Regime – unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral policies, initiatives, treaties, and / or agreements influencing the development, production, stockpiling, use, and transfer of NBC weapons. 4. Case Studies: Highlighting 1-3 key sub-topics relating to overarching weekly subject matter. SYLLABUS NAVIGATION Review the table found above and at the top of each subsequent page. From top down: Row 1 indicates the course’s 14 weekly classes; Row 2 offers hyperlinks to individual classes; Row 3 indicates class dates; Row 4 summarizes weekly content; and Row 5 offers three hyperlinks to: 1) the top of this document; 2) the summary table found directly below; and 3) three appendices: Appendix I: Graded material, grading metrics, etc. Appendix II: Important links and contact numbers Appendix III: University Policies 1 Last updated: 01/06/2016. W 1 W 2 W 3 W 4 W 5 W 6 W 7 W 8 W 9 W 10 W 11 W 12 W 13 W 14 CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE CLICK HERE 01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26 Nuclear I Nuclear II Nuclear III Nuclear IV Nuclear V Nuclear VI Chemical I Chemical II Chemical III Chemical IV Biological I Biological II Biological III Biological IV TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE S yllabus Version1 1

Transcript of Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert...

Page 1: Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb

B I O D 7 0 6 / G O V T 7 3 9

X X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X

N U C L E A R B I O L O G I C A L A N D

C H E M I C A L W E A P O N S

P O L I C Y A N D S E C U R I T Y

B I O D 7 0 6 / G O V T 7 3 9

G e o r g e M a s o n U n i v e r s i t y School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs

Inst ructor : CP B la i r1

B I O D 7 0 6 / G O V T 7 3 9 This course navigates the terrain of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons policy and security via four broad routes:

1. Scientific and Technological principles, requirements, avenues, and barriers to the development, production, stockpiling, transfer, and use of NBC weapons, as well as their effects.

2. Historical, Extant, and Possible Future Realities of NBC weapons vis-à-vis perceived security considerations and policy (largely from an American perspective).

3. The Nonproliferation Regime – unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral policies, initiatives, treaties, and / or agreements influencing the development, production, stockpiling, use, and transfer of NBC weapons.

4. Case Studies: Highlighting 1-3 key sub-topics relating to overarching weekly subject matter.

S Y L L A B U S N A V I G A T I O N Review the table found above and at the top of each subsequent page. From top down:

Row 1 indicates the course’s 14 weekly classes; Row 2 offers hyperlinks to individual classes; Row 3 indicates class dates; Row 4 summarizes weekly content; and Row 5 offers three hyperlinks to: 1) the top of this document; 2) the summary table found directly below; and 3) three appendices:

Appendix I: Graded material, grading metrics, etc. Appendix II: Important links and contact numbers Appendix III: University Policies

1 L a s t u p d a t e d : 0 1 / 0 6 / 2 0 1 6 .

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

S y l l a b u s

V e r s i o n 1 1

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

S U M M A R Y T A B L E

W E E K B R O A D T O P I C S

Week 1:

January 19

Course Bearings Nuclear I:

Nuclear Weapons: Science & Technology

Week 2:

January 26

Nuclear II:

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: 1940 -1990

Week 3:

February 2

Nuclear III:

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: 1991-2015

Anti-Ballistic Missile Defenses (1970-2015)

Week 4:

February 9

Nuclear IV:

Guest Lecturer: Hans Kristensen , Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists Pending: Russia & China: Nuclear Weapons Modernization and U.S. Policy

Week 5:

February 16

Nuclear V:

Case Studies: “Rogues,” Nuclear Weapons, and U.S. Policy

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

Week 6:

February 23

Nuclear VI:

“Nuclear Terrorism”

Nuclear Postures, Alert Levels, and Launch on Warning: U.S. Security Perceptions

Nuclear Command & Control and U.S. Policy

Week 7:

March 1

Chemical I:

Chemical Warfare: Science and Technology

S P R I N G B R E A K

Week 8:

March 15

Chemical II:

History of Chemical Warfare: 1915-1988

Week 9:

March 22

Chemical III:

Chemical Warfare: Recent History and U.S. Policy

Week 10:

March 29

Chemical IV:

Chemical Warfare, Terrorism, and the Nonproliferation Regime

Week 11:

April 5

Biological I:

Biological Warfare: Agents of Concern

Week 12:

April 12

Biological II:

Biological Warfare and U.S. Policy over Time

Week 13:

April 19

Biological III:

“Bioterrorism”

Week 14:

April 26

Biological IV:

Biological Warfare and the Nonproliferation Regime

FINALS/ END of course

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 1 – January 19, 2016

COURSE OVERVIEW

NUCLEAR I:

UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES OF FISSION AND FUSION

AND NUCLEAR WEAPON EFFECTS

O v e r v i e w : Our first class includes an in-depth overview of the course and a subsequent exploration of the sciences and technologies underlying nuclear weapons, as well as their effects. Note that the week’s required materials are completed prior to class. This is the case throughout the semester; you arrive to class having completed all of that week’s (1-14) required materials (i.e., required readings and any required videos or interactive resources).

O b j e c t i v e s : This week’s material enables you to:

Recognize and describe course topics, organization, assignments, and responsibilities.

Identify and summarize basic terms and concepts vis-à-vis the scientific and technological principles underlying nuclear weapons.

Explain and illustrate the principles underlying fission and fusion.

Describe and visualize the effects of nuclear weapons.

Summarize the Manhattan Project. Discuss J. Robert Oppenheimer and U.S. nuclear weapons policy.

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Viewing: On your own time, watch “The Day After” before our first class.

Readings:

Engage the required materials in the following order: 1. Read: Lynn Eden’s, “Complete Ruin.”

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

2. Familiarize yourself with, “Nuclear weapons effects calculator.”

3. View: “The Day After Trinity” 4. Read: Cote’s, “A Primer on Fissile Materials and Nuclear

Weapon Design.”

A t - H o m e V i d e o :

View the following required video on your own time prior to class.

“The Day After Trinity,” Parts 1-9 (90 minutes) Available at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2mVC2Hn3qs&list=PLB4671A27E4B3607B

R e a d i n g s : R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 4 6

Owen R. Coté, Jr., “Appendix B: A Primer on Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapon Design,” in Graham T. Allison, Owen R. Cote, Jr., Richard A. Falkenrath, and Steven E. Miller, Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material (Cambridge, MA: Center for Science and International Affairs, 1999), 203-228.

Available at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/nukes/readings/appendixb.html

Lynn Eden, Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004).

Chapter 1: “Complete Ruin,” pp. 15-36.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Familiarize yourself with: Nuclear weapons effects calculator. Nuke Map, 2015.

Available at: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

History

[Highly recommended] Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986).

Available at: Fenwick Library Stacks: QC773 .R46 1988

[Highly recommended] Lize Meitner and O.R. Frisch, “Disentregation of Uranium by Neutrons: A New Type of Reaction,” Nature 3615 (February 11, 1939).

Available on Blackboard

Roger H. Stuewer, “Bringing the News of Fission to America,” Physics Today 38 (October 1985), pp. 48-56.

Available on Blackboard

John C. Slater, “Quantum Physics in America Between the Wars,” Physics Today (January 1968), pp. 43-51.

Available on Blackboard

Weapons & ‘Special Fissionable Material’

[Highly recommended] Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).

Available at: Gateway Library Stacks: QC773.A1 S47 1992

[Highly recommended] Lillian Hoddeson, Paul W. Henrickson, Rogen A. Meade, and Catherine L. Westfall, Critical Assembly: A Technical History of Los Alamos during the Oppenheimer Years, 1943-1945 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993)

Available at: Gateway Library Stacks: QC773.3.U5 C75 1993

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Robert S. Norris and Hans Kristensen, “U.S. Nuclear Warheads, 1945-2009,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 65 (July-August 2009), pp. 72-81.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Robert S. Norris, “The History of the U.S. Nuclear Stockpile,” Federation of American Scientists, August 15, 2013.

Available at: https://fas.org/pir-pubs/the-history-of-the-u-s-nuclear-stockpile-1945-2013/

Jeremy Bernstein, Plutonium (Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 2007), pp. 1-77.

Available on Blackboard

Office of Technology Assessment, Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 1993), pp. 119 – 196.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://ota.fas.org/reports/9344.pdf

J. Carson Mark, Frank von Hippel, and Edward Lyman, "Explosive Properties of Reactor-Grade Plutonium," Science & Global Security 17 (2009), pp. 170-185.

Available at: http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs17mark.pdf

Effects

PHYSICAL EFFECTS

[Highly recommended] Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977).

Chapter 1, “General Principles of Nuclear Explosions,” pp. 1-25.

Chapter 2: “Descriptions of Nuclear Explosions,” pp. 26-79. Available on Blackboard Also available at:

http://www.deepspace.ucsb.edu/wp-

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

content/uploads/2013/01/Effects-of-Nuclear-Weapons-1977-3rd-edition-complete.pdf

[Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) documents and Narrative] “It is Certain There Will be Many Firestorms,” William Burr, ed., National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 108, January 14, 2004.

Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB108/index.htm

Leonard A. Alt, C. Douglas Forcino, and Richard I. Walker, “Nuclear Events and Their Consequences,” in Richard I Walker and T. Jan Cerveny eds., Medical Consequences of Nuclear War (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 1989), pp. 1-16.2

Available on Blackboard

MEDICAL EFFECTS

Ronald E. Goans and Daniel F. Flynn, “Acute Radiation Syndrome in Humans,” in Anthony M. Mickelson, ed., Medical Consequences of Radiological and Nuclear Weapons (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2012), pp. 17-38.

Available on Blackboard

Steven M. Becker, “Psychological Issues in a Radiological or Nuclear Attack,” in Anthony M. Mickelson, ed., Medical Consequences of Radiological and Nuclear Weapons (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2012), pp. 171-194.

Available on Blackboard

K. Sree Kumar, Juliann K. Kiang, Mark H Whitnall and Martin Hauer-Jensen, “Perspectives in Radiological and Nuclear Countermeasures,” in Anthony M. Mickelson, ed., Medical Consequences of Radiological and Nuclear Weapons (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2012), pp. 239-266.

Available on Blackboard

2 See related Table 1.1, “Percent Distribution of Injuries Sustained in a Nuclear War,” available on Blackboard.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 2 – January 26, 2016

NUCLEAR II:

THE EVOLUTION OF U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY: 1940-1990

O v e r v i e w : Last week’s exploration of the scientific and technological principles underlying nuclear weapons, as well as their effects, provides the necessary basis for an informed exploration of this week’s subject matter: U.S. nuclear war plans, stockpile status, and international nuclear milieu from World War II until the end of the Cold War.3 In addition to the required readings, view the required at-home video listed below (“MAD: 1960-1972,” and, optionally, “Détente: 1969-1975” & “Freeze: 1977-1981”) prior to class. Finally, in addition to a nuclear policy lecture, we have an in-class viewing of the making of the first hydrogen bomb and subsequent Soviet thermonuclear development and testing (“The World’s Biggest Bomb”).

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize principle facets of U.S. nuclear war planning, related security perceptions, and policy from World War II through the end of the Cold War (1990/1991).

Describe key elements of U.S. and Soviet efforts in the development, stockpiling, and delivery of thermonuclear weapons.

Delineate and summarize specific government documents and plans related to U.S. nuclear weapons policy from World War II through the end of the Cold War. Including:

National Security Council Report on Atomic Warfare – NSC-30 (September 1948).

The Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) 62 (1960-1962).

Presidential Directive (PD) 59 (1980).

Identify, summarize, and assess the evolution (both qualitative and quantitative) of U.S. nuclear weapons stockpiles and delivery platforms.

3 In my mind the Cold War ended August 3, 1990.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

A s s i g n m e n t s :

As is the case with every week, all assignments must be completed prior to class.

Viewing: On your own time, watch the required video, “MAD: 1960-1972” before class. Optional – highly recommended – videos: “Détente: 1969-1975” and “Freeze: 1977-1981.”

Readings: Engage the material in the following order (detailed below):

1. Note and Bookmark: NTI’s “Glossary.” 2. Read: Kunsman, A Primer on U.S. Strategic Nuclear Policy. 3. Read: Rosenberg, “The Origins of Overkill.” 4. Read: Ball, “The Development of the SIOP, 1960-1983.” 5. Skim: Reed and Stillman, “Chronology.” 6. Watch: “MAD: 1960-1972” [46 minutes] 7. [Optional] Watch: “Détente: 1969-1975” and “Freeze: 1977-

1981.” [both ~ 46 minutes]

A t - H o m e V i d e o s

View the following videos on your own time prior to class. Required

“MAD: 1960-1972” (CNN’s The Cold War, 1998). 46 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szS4mIrpfWw

Recommended

“Détente: 1969-1975” (CNN’s The Cold War, 1998). 47 minutes.

Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szS4mIrpfWw

“Freeze: 1977-1981” (CNN’s The Cold War, 1998). 46 minutes.

Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVVFAHiYfuo&index=19&list=PL8hNHC9nbLlzb4miGp5pZPYCk9Zw0dGke

I n - C l a s s V i d e o

“The World’s Biggest Bomb.” 45 minutes.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 1 4 3

Recognize, initially navigate, and bookmark the Center for

Nonproliferation Study / Nuclear Threat Initiative’s useful “Glossary.”

Available at: http://www.nti.org/glossary/

David M. Kunsman and Douglas B. Lawson, A Primer on U.S. Strategic Nuclear Policy (Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories, 2001), pp. 15- 64.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2001/010053.pdf

David Alan Rosenberg, “The Origins of Overkill: Nuclear Weapons and American Strategy, 1945-1960.” International Security 7 (Winter 1983), pp. 3-71.

Available on Blackboard

Desmond Ball, “The Development of the SIOP, 1960-1983,” in Desmond Ball and Jeffrey Richelson, eds., Strategic Nuclear Targeting (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1986), pp. 57-83.

Available on Blackboard

[Skim] Thomas Reed and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation (Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2010).

Appendix F: “Chronology,” pp. 364-381.

Keep this helpful chronology handy throughout our exploration of nuclear weapons.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S [roughly chronological]

Otto Frisch and Rudolf Peierls, “Memorandum on the Properties of a Radioactive Super-Bomb" [aka the "Frisch-Peierls Memorandum”], March 1940.

Memorandum background, see: http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Begin/FrischPeierls.shtml

Memorandum text available at: http://web.stanford.edu/class/history5n/FPmemo.pdf

[Very highly recommended] Chuck Hansen, Swords of Armageddon, Volume I: The Development of U.S. Nuclear Weapons (Sunnyvale, CA: Chukelea Publications, 1995).

Available on Blackboard

(NSC 30) “Draft Report by the National Security Council on United States Policy on Atomic Warfare [NSC 30],” September 10, 1948.

Available at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1948v01p2/d43

David Alan Rosenberg, “U.S. Nuclear Stockpile, 1945 to 1950,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 38 (May 1982), pp. 25-30.

Available on Blackboard

Robert S. Norris and Hans Kristensen, “U.S. Nuclear Warheads, 1945-2009,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 65 (July-August 2009), pp. 72-81.

Available on Blackboard

Robert S. Norris, “The History of the U.S. Nuclear Stockpile,” Federation of American Scientists, August 15, 2013.

Available at: https://fas.org/pir-pubs/the-history-of-the-u-s-nuclear-stockpile-1945-2013/

[Highly recommended]

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

David Alan Rosenberg, “American Atomic Strategy and the Hydrogen Bomb Decision,” Journal of American History 66 (June, 1979), pp. 62-87.

Available on Blackboard

Hans A. Bethe, “Comments on the History of the H-Bomb,” Los Alamos Science, (Fall 1982).

Hans Bethe (1906-2005) was inter alia, Theoretical Division Leader at Los Alamos from 1943-45.

Available on Blackboard

[FOIA documents and narrative] David Alan Rosenberg and W. B. Moore, "Smoking Radiating Ruin at the End of Two Hours: Documents on American Plans for Nuclear War with the Soviet Union, 1954-55,” International Security 6 (Winter, 1981-1982), pp. 3-38.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Narrative and FOIA documents] William Burr, ed., “U.S. Cold War Nuclear Target List Declassified for the First Time,” National Security Archive, Electronic Briefing Book 538, December 22, 2015.

Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-First-Ever/

Richard H. Kohn and Joseph P. Harahan , “U.S. Strategic Air Power, 1948-1962: Excerpts from an Interview with Generals Curtis E. Lemay, Leon W. Johnson, David A. Burchinal, and Jack J. Catton,” International Security 12 (Spring 1988).

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] J. Robert Oppenheimer, “Atomic Weapons and American Policy.” Foreign Affairs 31 (1953), pp. 525-535.

Available on Blackboard

Peter J. Roman, “Ike’s Hair-Trigger: U.S. Nuclear Predelegation, 1953-60,” Security Studies 7 (Summer 1998).

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Jerry Miller, Stockpile: The Story Behind 10,000 Strategic Nuclear Weapons (Annapolis MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010).

Chapter 8: “The SIOP: Plan for Destruction,” pp. 117-134.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

[Highly recommended] William Burr, “U.S. War Plans Would Kill an Estimated 108 Million Soviets, 104 Million Chinese, and 2.6 Million Poles: More Evidence on SIOP-62 and the Origins of Overkill,” The National Security Archive, November 8, 2011.4

Available at: https://nsarchive.wordpress.com/2011/11/08/u-s-war-plans-would-kill-an-estimated-108-million-soviets-104-million-chinese-and-2-3-million-poles-more-evidence-on-siop-62-and-the-origins-of-overkill/

See also: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB130/

Scott D. Sagan, “SIOP-62: The Nuclear War Plan Briefing to President Kennedy,” International Security 12 (Summer 1987), pp. 22-51

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/CMC50/ScottSaganSIOP62TheNuclearWarPlanBriefingtoPresidentKennedyInternationalSecurity.pdf

[FOIA documents and narrative] William Burr, ed., “The Nixon Administration, the SIOP, and the Search for Limited Nuclear Options, 1969-1974,” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book 173, November 2005

Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB173/

[Highly recommended] [FOIA documents and narrative]

4 This article is based in part on a recently declassified 1961 U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) report outlining how, “[I]f the full U.S. nuclear

force assigned to the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) struck the Soviet Union, 54 percent of the total population would be killed, that is some 108 million of a total population of 217 million. If the smaller alert force (bombers on 15 minute to 2 hour alert) was used, total Soviet casualties would be 37 percent or about 80 million. Against China, the full force would kill a smaller proportion because there were fewer cities: 16 percent of an estimated 650 million or about 104 million.” Throw in 2.6 million Poles and one comes up with a war plan that could have feasibly generated over 214 million prompt deaths (many more stochastic deaths would have resulted vis-à-vis fallout). Moreover, these grim figures don’t include any deaths resulting from Soviet nuclear weapons use. Still, mild stuff compared to nuclear war casualty estimates post-1961.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

William Burr, ed., “Jimmy Carter's Controversial Nuclear Targeting Directive PD-59 Declassified,” National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 390, September 2012.

Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb390/

Milton Leitenberg, “Presidential Directive 59: United States Nuclear Weapon Targeting Policy,” Journal of Peace Research 18 (1981), pp. 309-317.

Available on Blackboard

William Burr, “How to Fight a Nuclear War: Revealed, Jimmy Carter’s Strategy for Armageddon, Foreign Policy, September 12, 2012.

Available on Blackboard

[Narrative and FOIA documents] William Burr, ed., “The Able Archer 83 Sourcebook.”

Available at: http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ablearcher/

[Very highly recommended] Janne E. Nolan, An Elusive Consensus: Nuclear Weapons and American Security After the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brooking Institute Press, 1999).

Chapter 2: “The Role of Nuclear Weapons during the Cold War,” pp. 18-34.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

President Ronald Reagan, National Security Decision Directive 13, "Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy" [NSDD-13].

Available at: http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/reference/Scanned%20NSDDS/NSDD13.pdf

Scott D. Sagan, Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).

Concluding pages, covering 1980-1987, of chapter 1: “The Evolution of U.S. Nuclear Doctrine,” pp. 48-57.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Richard Rhodes, Arsenal of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007).

Chapter 11: “Going around in Circles,” pp. 188-211.

Chapter 12: “Naysayers Hard at Work,” pp. 189-235.

Both chapters available on Blackboard

Reserve items – do not distribute.

Ambassador James Goodby, “Looking Back: The 1986 Reykjavik Summit,” Arms Control Association, September 2006.

Available at: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_09/Lookingback

[Very highly recommended] Janne E. Nolan, Guardians of the Arsenal: The Politics of Nuclear Strategy (New York: Basic Books, 1989).

Chapter 4: “Defenses Reincarnated,” pp. 140-182.

Includes Presidents Reagan and the Strategic Defense Initiative.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, 1953-1961: A History of the United States Atomic Energy Commission 1947-1953 (Washington, DC: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, 1972), Vol. II.

Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961: Eisenhower and the Atomic Energy Commission: A History of the United States Atomic Commission 1947-1953 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989), Vol III.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 3 – February 2, 2016

NUCLEAR III:

U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY:

1991 - 2015

THE EVOLUTION OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSES—

FANTASY, POLICY, AND TECHNOLOGY:

1970-2015

O v e r v i e w : This week we continue our exploration of U.S. nuclear weapons policy and related perceptions of security from the end of the Cold War through 2015. Additionally, we investigate anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defenses. The end of the Cold War precipitated hopes of nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapon states (NWS) – an actualization of their solemn commitments vis-à-vis the 1970 Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).5 Yet, more than a quarter-century later, Russia and the United States still possess vast nuclear arsenals. Currently, the U.S. maintains ~2,080 deployed strategic6 nuclear warheads (with an additional 180 tactical7 nuclear weapons based in four NATO countries8).9 For their part, Russia’s 2015 nuclear inventory includes 1,780 deployed strategic warheads and ~ 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons.10

5 Article VI of the NPT states, “Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures

relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” 6 “Strategic” can be defined as, “A high-yield nuclear warhead placed on a long-range delivery system, such as a land-based

intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBMs), a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBMs), or a strategic bomber.” See, the Center for Nonproliferation Studies / NTI highly useful “Glossary,” Available at: http://www.nti.org/glossary/ 7 “Tactical,” can be described as, “Short-range nuclear weapons, such as artillery shells, bombs, and short-range missiles, deployed for

use in battlefield operations.” Also known as “non-strategic” nuclear weapons. See Ibid. 8 The four NATO members are: Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Additionally, Washington and Berlin have reportedly agreed

to station ~20 U.S. nuclear weapons (the B61-12) in Germany. 9 The U.S. also possesses ~2,680 warheads in reserve (the so-called “hedge” force) and, additionally, ~ 2,340 warheads awaiting

dismantlement. In sum, the U.S.’ total 2015 nuclear inventory comes to ~ 7,100 warheads. See, Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “US Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2015) – available on Blackboard (under Week 4 – “required readings”). 10

Russia also maintains another 700 strategic warheads in storage. In sum, Russia’s 2015 arsenal totals ~ 4,500 warheads. See, Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (2015) – available on Blackboard (under Week 4 – “required readings”).

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Why do nuclear weapon states maintain large—in some cases, massive— nuclear inventories?11 This week we explore this fascinating question.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize and analyze general U.S. strategic and tactical nuclear war plans, related policies, and stockpiles from the end of the Cold War through 2015.

Identify and interpret the evolution (both qualitative and quantitative) of U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons stockpiles and deployment polices (e.g., Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991-1992).

Describe, compare, and contrast the 1994, 2001, and 2010 Nuclear Posture Reviews (NPR), as well as the 1997 Presidential Decision Directive 60 (PDD-60).

Define, interpret and evaluate President Obama’s 2009 “Prague Speech” and subsequent efforts by that administration to enact the goals set forth therein.

Summarize the history of anti-ballistic missile (ABM) policies, the 1972 ABM treaty, and the subsequent evolution and current status of U.S. and NATO efforts to operationalize ballistic missile defenses.

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Readings

Engage the required readings materials in the order they appear below.

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations TBD

11

In addition to Russia and the United States, three other states are considered NWS – states that “legally” possess nuclear weapons: China, France, and the United Kingdom. Nuclear inventories in 2015: China: ~ 260; France: ~ 300; and the United Kingdom: ~ 215. Of the four states outside of the NPT, all possess nuclear weapons: India: ~ 115; Israel: ~ 80; North Korea: less than 10 (among other challenges, they are likely non-deployable); and Pakistan: ~ 125. Total global nuclear warhead inventories as of September 28, 2015: ~ 15,800. See Hans Kristensen, “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists (last updated 09/28/15). Available at: http://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

I n - C l a s s V i d e o :

“Star Wars: 1981-1988” (CNN’s The Cold War, 1998). 46 minutes

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 1 4 6

David M. Kunsman and Douglas B. Lawson, A Primer on U.S. Strategic Nuclear Policy (Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories, 2001) pp. 65-68.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2001/010053.pdf

Charles P. Blair and Jean P. Du Preez, “Visions of Fission: The Demise of Nuclear Negative Security Assurances on the Bush Administration’s Pentomic Battlefield,” Nonproliferation Review 12 (March 2005), pp. 37-59.

Available on Blackboard

Matthew G. McKinzie, Thomas B. Cochran, Robert S. Norris, and William M. Arkin, The U.S. Nuclear War Plan: A Time for Change (Washington, DC: Natural Resources Defense Council, June 2001).

Chapter 2: “The Single Integrated Operational Plan and U.S. Nuclear Forces,” pp. 8-15.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/warplan/warplan_start.pdf

Hans M. Kristensen, “U.S. Strategic War Planning After 9/11,” Nonproliferation Review 14 (July 2007), pp. 373-390.

Available on Blackboard

“Remarks by President Barack Obama in Prague as Delivered,” The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, April 5, 2009. (6 pages.)

Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-prague-delivered

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Hans M. Kristensen, “Falling Short of Prague: Obama's Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy,” Arms Control Today 43 (September 2013), pp. 8-13.

Available on Blackboard

William Burr, “How to fight a Nuclear War,” Foreign Policy, September 14, 2012.

Nine pages including the FOIA documents that Burr highlights. (11 pages.)

Available at: http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/09/14/how-to-fight-a-nuclear-war/

“New START at a Glance,” Arms Control Association, August 2012. (3 pages.)

Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/NewSTART

James Masters,” Ballistic Missile Defense,” CRF Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations, August 14, 2015. (6 pages.)

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.cfr.org/missile-defense/ballistic-missile-defense/p30607 .

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S [roughly chronological]

Demise off the Soviet Union & the 1991 Coup D'état Attempt

[Very highly recommended] Richard Rhodes, Twilight of the Bomb, (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2010).

Chapter 5: “The Little Suitcase,” pp. 83-96.

Chapter 6: Many Little Monsters,” pp. 97-117.

Chapter 7: Waiting for Forty Years,” pp. 118-140.

All three chapters available on Blackboard

David E. Hoffman, The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy (New York: Doubleday, 2009).

Chapter 17: “A Great Unraveling,” pp. 380-400.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Key Nuclear Initiatives under President George H.W. Bush

Susan J. Koch, Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991-1992 (Washington DC: National Defense University Press, 2012).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/casestudies/CSWMD_CaseStudy-5.pdf

2010 Nuclear Posture Review & President Obama’s Prague Speech

Department of Defense 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (April 2010).

Available at: http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/defenseReviews/NPR/2010_Nuclear_Posture_Review_Report.pdf

Scott D. Sagan and Jane Vaynman, “Reviewing the Nuclear Posture Review, Nonproliferation Review 18, (March 2011), pp. 17-37.

Available on Blackboard

[Very highly recommended] Robert S. Norris and Charles P. Blair, “A Nuclear-Free Mirage: Obstacles to President Obama’s Goal of a Nuclear Free World,” FAS Issue Brief (Washington DC: Federation of American Scientists), 2011), pp. 1-10.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://fas.org/pubs/_docs/20110927_Nuclear_Free_Mirage.pdf

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Government Accountability Office, “Strategic Weapons: Changes in the Nuclear Weapons Targeting Process Since 1991,” July 31, 2012, pp. 1-13.

Note on page 3: “The fundamental objectives of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy have remained largely consistent since 1991…”

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://gao.gov/assets/600/593142.pdf

The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM)

Federation of American Scientists, “Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.”

Available at: http://fas.org/nuke/control/abmt/

ABM Treaty Text “Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, October 3, 1972.” U.S. Department of State.

Available at: http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/treaties/abm/abm2.html

Lynn F. Rusten, U.S. Withdrawal for the Antiballistic Missile Treaty (Washington, DC: National Defense, January 2010), pp. 1-16.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/casestudies/CSWMD_CaseStudy-2.pdf

The Strategic Defense Initiative (aka “Star Wars”)

Dallas Boyd and James Scouras, “Escape from Nuclear Deterrence: Lessons from Global Zero from the Strategic Defense Initiative,” Nonproliferation Review 20 (2013), pp. 339-360.

Available on Blackboard

Frances FitzGerald, Way Out There in the Blue: Reagan, Star Wars and the End of the Cold War (New York: Simon and Shuster, 2001).

Chapter 5: “To the Star Wars Speech,” pp. 147-209.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Julia Keller, “On the Record with Frances Fitzgerald Historian, Chicago Tribune, June 4, 2000.

Available at: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2000-06-04/news/0006040222_1_missile-defense-star-wars-sdi

Ballistic Missile Defense

W. K. H. Panofsky and Dean A. Wilkening, “Defenses against Nuclear Attack on the United States,” in George Bunn, Christopher F. Chyba, eds., U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006), pp. 220-247.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Yousaf Butt and Theodore Postal, “Upsetting the Reset: The Technical Basis of Russian Concern over NATO Missile Defense,” FAS Special Report 1 (September 2011). (49 pages.)

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://fas.org/pubs/_docs/2011%20Missile%20Defense%20Report%20-%20lowres.pdf

Nicholas Khoo and Reuben Steff, “This Program will not be a Threat to them: Ballistic Missile Defense and US relations with Russia and China,” Defense & Security Analysis 3 (2014), pp. 17-28.

Available on Blackboard

Mikhail Tsypkin, “Russia, America and Missile Defense,” Defense & Security Analysis 28 (2012), pp. 55-64. (82 pages.)

Available on Blackboard

Ronald O’Rourke, “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service (updated December 11, 2015).

Available at: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL33745.pdf

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 4 – February 9, 2016

NUCLEAR IV:

GUEST LECTURE BY HANS KRISTENSEN:

CHINA; RUSSIA; FORCE MODERIZATION

O v e r v i e w :

The highly esteemed nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen—Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists—guest lectures this week. Pending topics include: nuclear weapons force modernization, Chinese and Russian nuclear stockpiles and related security concerns.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Describe, compare, and contrast extant Chinese, Russian, and American nuclear stockpiles.

Summarize Chinese and Russian nuclear postures.

Describe Chinese, Russian, and American nuclear force modernization.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Engage the required readings materials in the order they appear below.

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 1 3 0

[Focus on initial sections; skim latter sections]

Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “US Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (2015), pp. 107-119.

Available on Blackboard

[Focus on initial sections; skim latter sections] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (2015), 1-14.

Available on Blackboard

Page 24: Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Focus on initial sections; skim latter sections] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “Chinese nuclear forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (2015), pp. 77-84.

Available on Blackboard

Lisbeth Gronlund, “Bad Math on New Nuclear Weapons: The Costs of the 3+2 Plan Outweigh its Benefits,” Union of Concerned Scientists, October 2015, pp. 1-36.

Available on Blackboard

Hans M. Kristensen, “Nuclear Weapons Modernization: A Threat to the NPT?” Arms Control Today, May 15, 2015. (10 pages.)

Available on Blackboard

Taylor M. Fravel and Fiona S. Cunningham, “Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China Strategic Stability,” International Security 40 (2015), pp.7-50.

Available on Blackboard

Vladimir Kozin, “The ‘New’ U.S. Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for Russia,” International Affairs (Moscow) 59 (2013), pp. 23-41.

Available on Blackboard

Nikolai Sokov, “Assessing Russian Attitudes toward Phased, Deep Nuclear Reductions: Strategic and Regional Concerns,” Nonproliferation Review 20 (2013), pp. 247-261.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

MODERNIZATION

[Highly recommended] Robert S. Norris and Hans Kristensen, “U.S. Nuclear Warheads, 1945-2009,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 65 (July-August 2009), pp. 72-81.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended]

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Robert S. Norris, “The History of the U.S. Nuclear Stockpile,” Federation of American Scientists, August 15, 2013.

Available at: https://fas.org/pir-pubs/the-history-of-the-u-s-nuclear-stockpile-1945-2013/

[Highly recommended] Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris, “The B-61 Family of Nuclear Bombs,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 70 (2014), pp. 79-84.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Len Ackland and Burt Hubbard, “Obama Pledged to Reduce Nuclear Arsenal, then Came this Weapon,” Center for Investigative Reporting, July 14, 2015. (12 pages.)

Available at: https://www.revealnews.org/article/new-mexico-thrives-on-nuclear-bomb-despite-us-pledge-to-reduce-arsenal/

Todd Royal, “Unanswered Questions: Modernizing the US Nuclear Arsenal and Forces?” Pepperdine Policy Review 8 (Spring 2015). (24 pages.)

Available on Blackboard CHINA

Mark Schneider, “Minimum Deterrence and Russian and Chinese Threat Developments,” Comparative Strategy 33 (2014), pp. 193-204.

Taylor M Fravel and Evan S. Medeiros, “China’s Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure,” International Security 35 (2010), pp.48-87.

Available on Blackboard

Thomas Fingar, “Worrying About Washington: China's Views on the US Nuclear Posture,” Nonproliferation Review 18 (2011), pp. 51-68.

Available on Blackboard

Lawrence E. Grinter, “Chinese Nuclear Doctrine, Weapons and Policies,” Pacific Focus 28 (2013), pp. 1-16.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris, and Matthew G. McKinzie, Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning (Washington, DC: The Federation of American Scientists and The Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006).

Chapter III: “China in U.S. Nuclear War Planning,” pp. 127-172.

Available at: https://fas.org/nuke/guide/china/Book2006.pdf

Thomas J. Christensen, “The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China's Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations,” Journal of Strategic Studies 35 (2012), pp. 447-487.

Available on Blackboard

Mark A. Stokes, China’s Nuclear Warhead Storage and Handling System (Project 2049 Institute, March 12, 2010).

Available on Blackboard

Page 27: Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 5 – February 16, 2016

NUCLEAR V:

‘ROGUES’

THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME

O v e r v i e w : This week we explore perceived “rogues,” including the Iranian nuclear program and its alleged nuclear weapons activities as well as North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. We also assess the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Describe the evolution of the Iranian nuclear program.

Summarize concerns over an alleged Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Summarize the evolution and current status of the North Korean nuclear weapons program.

Identify and illustrate salient elements of the nuclear nonproliferation regime and bilateral treaties, including:

The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (1970).

The Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).

The New Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (New START) (2011).

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Readings

Complete the required readings in the order they appear.

R e m i n d e r s :

We have our first in-class quiz next week.

Essay I is due next week.

This week’s Presentations:

Page 28: Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

TBD R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 1 2 1

Charles P. Blair and Mark Jansson, “Sanctions, Military Strikes, and Other Potential Actions against Iran,” FAS Special Report (Washington, DC: Federation of American Scientists, November 2012), pp. 1-25.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://fas.org/_docs/2012_Iran_and_Global_Economy.pdf

Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006).

Chapter 14: “Trouble Waiting to Happen,” pp. 503-544.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Paul K. Kerr, “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations,” Congressional Research Service, December 7, 2015. (21 pages.)

Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R40094.pdf

Tariq Rauf and Robert Kelley, “Assessing the IAEA ‘Assessment’ of ‘Possible Military Dimensions’ of Iran’s Nuclear Programme,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), December 15, 2015. (17 pages.)

In this critical piece, two former senior IAEA officials— with direct experience of the Iran nuclear file— assess the “possible military dimension” (PMD) process and suggest structural changes to improve the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Available on Blackboard

The Nuclear Matters Handbook, “Appendix B: International Nuclear Treaties and Agreements,” Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs, 2011, pp. 145-164.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

This entire document is a valuable resource for nuclear weapon issues in general.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

Iran and North Korea

[Very highly recommended] Charles P. Blair and Mark Jansson, “Better Understanding North Korea: Q&A with Seven East Asian Experts,” Federation of American Scientists, April 2013.

Part 1 (Dr. Ted Galen Carpenter, Dr. Balbina Hwang, Ms. Duyeon Kim and Dr. Leon Sigal)

Available at: https://fas.org/blogs/security/2013/04/better-understanding-north-korea-part-1/

Part 2 (Dr. Jacques EC Hymans, Dr. Yousaf Butt, and Ms. Masako Toki).

Available at: https://fas.org/blogs/security/2013/04/better-understanding-north-korea-part-2/

[Highly recommended] Jeffrey T. Richelson, Spying on the Bomb (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006).

Chapter 14: “Rogues,” pp. 317-359.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Vipin Narang, “Nuclear Strategies of Emerging Nuclear Powers: North Korea and Iran,” Washington Quarterly 38 (2015), pp. 73-91.

Available on Blackboard

Shaheen Akhtar and Zulfiqar Khan, “Understanding the Nuclear Aspirations and Behavior of North Korea and Iran,” Strategic Analysis 38 (2014), 617-633.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Peter Hayes and Scott Bruce, “Unprecedented Nuclear Strikes of the Invincible Army: A Realistic Assessment of North Korea's Operational Nuclear Capability,” North Korean Review 8 (2012), pp. 84-92.

Available on Blackboard

Bruce Klingner, “Deny, Deceive, and Delay: North Korea's Nuclear Negotiating Strategy,” Journal of East Asian Affairs 26 (Fall/Winter 2012), pp. 1-24

Available on Blackboard

Sachio Nakato, “North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test: Neoclassical Realism Perspectives,” Pacific Focus 27 (April 2012), pp. 10–35.

Available on Blackboard

Jinwook Choi, “A Game Changer: North Korea's Third Nuclear Test and Northeast Asian Security,” Journal of East Asian Affairs 27 (Spring/Summer2013), pp. 99-125.

Available on Blackboard

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

[Highly recommended] George Bunn, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime and Its History,” in George Bunn and Christopher F. Chyba, eds. U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today's Threats (Stanford, CA: Center for International Security and Cooperation, 2006), pp. 75-125.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item, do not distribute

Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) - 1970

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Non-Proliferation Treaty Tutorial, Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-non-proliferation-of-nuclear-weapons/

Center for Nonproliferation Studies, NPT Briefing Book, Part I.

Available at: http://cns.miis.edu/treaty_npt/briefingbook_2008/index.htm

New Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (New START) - 2011

Amy F. Woolf, “The New START Treaty: Central Limits and Key Provisions,” Congressional Research Service, November 3, 2015.

Available at: https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf

New START, U.S. Department of State, 2011.

Available at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/newstart/index.htm

Article-by-Article Analysis of New START Treaty Documents, U.S. Department of State, May 5, 2010.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/141829.htm

Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)

Christopher M. Jones, “The Odyssey of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty,” Nonproliferation Review 21 (2014), pp. 207-227.

Available on Blackboard

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) - 1987

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), U.S. Department of State.

Available at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/102360.htm

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT) - 1963

1963, Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), U.S. Department of State.

Available at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/199116.htm

Moscow Treaty - 2002

Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions (The Moscow Treaty), U.S. Department of State.

Available at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/127129.htm SALT and START

See, for example, the U.S. State Department at: http://www.state.gov/t/avc/trty/index.htm

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 6 – February 23, 2016

N U C L E A R V I :

COMMAND AND CONTROL

LAUNCH ON WARNING

‘NUCLEAR TERRORISM ’

O v e r v i e w :

This week we explore civilian and military command and control over nuclear weapons and nuclear launch postures. Assessed as well is the threat of so-called “nuclear terrorism.” Additionally, this week we hold our first in-class quiz and the first essay is due. In order to facilitate your preparation for these two graded items, readings for Weeks 6 & 7 are somewhat lighter than usual.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize primary variables determining a given state’s nuclear command and control configurations and policy ramifications (especially the United States).

Analyze the evolution and extant realities of U.S. nuclear weapons launch readiness and related nuclear weapons employment policies.

Describe, compare, and contrast views regarding the likelihood of “nuclear terrorism.”

R e m i n d e r s :

Quiz I this week.

Essay I this week.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Engage the readings in the order they are listed.

Prepare for quiz 1 (in-class)

Craft and submit essay I to Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

I n - C l a s s V i d e o :

“Countdown to Zero,” 2010 (90 minutes). R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 7 8

Charles P. Blair and Gary A. Ackerman, Terrorist Nuclear Command and Control (College Park, MD: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2012).

[Executive Summary at the very beginning of document: unmarked pages iii-vi]; marked pages 1-5; and 21-47.

Available on Blackboard

Do not distribute

John Mueller, “The Atomic Terrorist,” in Benjamin Friedman, Jim Harper, and Chistopher A. Preble, eds., Terrorizing Ourselves: Why U.S. Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing and How to Fix It (Washington, DC: CATO Institute, 2010), pp. 130-160.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute

Anna M. Pluta and Peter D. Zimmerman, “Nuclear Terrorism: A Disheartening Dissent,” Survival 48 (2006), pp. 55-69.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

[Highly recommended] Bruce G. Blair, Victor Esin, Matthew Mckinzie, Valery Yarynich, and Pavel Zolotarev, “One Hundred Nuclear Wars: Stable Deterrence between the United States and Russia at Reduced Nuclear Force Levels Off Alert in the Presence of Limited Missile Defenses,” Science and Global Security 19 (September 2011), pp. 167-194.

Bruce G. Blair, “De-alerting Strategic Forces,” in George P. Shultz, Steven P. Andreasen, Sidney Dress, and James F. Goodby, eds., Reykjavik Revisited: Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2008), pp. 47-105.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Bruce G. Blair, The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1993).

Chapter 6: “Launch on Warning,” pp. 168-218.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Scott D. Sagan “The Origins of Military Doctrine and Command and Control Systems,” in Peter R. Lavoy, Scott D. Sagan, and James J Wirtz, eds., Planning the Unthinkable (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2000), pp. 16-46.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

[Highly recommended] Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, “Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607 (2006), pp. 133-149.

Available on Blackboard

Robin Frost, “Improvised Nuclear Devices,” Adelphi Papers 45 (December 2005), pp. 25-40.

Available on Blackboard

Endnotes available in separate PDF (“Frost_Endnotes_2005” – also available on Blackboard).

[Very highly recommended] Charles P. Blair, “Nuclear Smuggling,” partial draft report prepared for Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE) (San Jose, CA: Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies, 2008), pp. 1-52.

Available on Blackboard

Charles P. Blair and Gary A. Ackerman, Terrorist Nuclear Command and Control (College Park, MD: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2012), pp. 73-100.

Available on Blackboard

Do not distribute

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Micah Zenko, “Intelligence Estimates of Nuclear Terrorism,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 607 (2006), pp. 87-102.

Ashton B. Carter, “Sources of Error and Uncertainty” in Ashton B. Carter, John D. Steinbruner, and Charles A Zraket eds., Managing Nuclear Operations (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institute, 1987), 611-640.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Paul Bracken, “Delegation of Nuclear Command Authority,” in Ashton B. Carter, John D. Steinbruner, and Charles A Zraket eds., Managing Nuclear Operations (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institute, 1987), pp. 352-372.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

John McPhee, The Curve of Binding Energy (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1973).

Leventhal, Paul, and Yohan Alexander, eds. Preventing Nuclear Terrorism (Lexington: Lexington Books, 1987).

Gordon Corera, Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006).

William Langewiesche, The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor (New York: Faraar, Straus and Grioux, 2007).

Sara Daley, John Parachini and William Rosenau, “Aum Shinrikyo, Al Qaeda, and the Kinshasa Reactor: Implications of Three Case Studies for Combating Nuclear Terrorism,” RAND Project Air Force (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2005).

Available at: http://www.rand.org/pubs/documented_briefings/2005/RAND_DB458.pdf.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Glaser, Alexander. “On the Proliferation Potential of Uranium Fuel for Research Reactors at Various Enrichment Levels,” Science & Global Security 14 (2006), pp. 1-24.

Available at: http://www.princeton.edu/~aglaser/2006aglaser_sgsvol14.pdf

David E. Kaplan and Andrew Marshall. The Cult at the End of the World: The Terrifying Story of the Aum Doomsday Cult, from the Subways of Tokyo to the Nuclear Arsenals of Russia (New York: Crown Publishers, 1996).

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 7 – March 1, 2016

CHEMICAL I:

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

O v e r v i e w :

We now begin our four week exploration of chemical warfare (CW), its history, policy outcomes, and extant/emerging security concerns. However, we first establish a basic understanding of chemical warfare agents, their classifications, perceived advantages and disadvantages, and effects. In order to facilitate your preparation for essay I, the week’s readings are somewhat lighter than usual.

O b j e c t i v e s : This week’s material enables you to:

Identify and differentiate primary chemical warfare agent types.

Identify, summarize, compare, and contrast chemical warfare agent sub-types.

Explain the relative significance of the Hague Peace Conferences of 1899 and 1907.

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Readings

Handle the readings in the order they are listed.

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations

TBD I n - C l a s s V i d e o s :

“Penetration of Fortified Targets by Sarin (GB),” (US Army, ND), 5 minutes.

VX Nerve Agent, TBD

Mac William Bishop and C.J. Chivers, “Chemical Secrets of the Iraq War,” New York Times Documentaries, October 14, 2014.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 4 5

Familiarize yourself with the resources available with the following document; e.g., skim and download. [Title of PDF doc: “CW_ Acronyms_ Abbreviations_2008”] “Acronyms and Abbreviations,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare, (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), xxiii-xxv.

Available on Blackboard

“What is a Chemical Weapon?” Fact Sheet 4, The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (Revised October 20, 2014).

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/Fact_Sheets/Fact_Sheet_4_-_CW_types.pdf

K. Ganesan, and S. K. Raza, and R. Vijayaraghavan, "Chemical Warfare Agents." Journal of Pharmacy and Bioallied Sciences 2 (July-September, 2010), pp. 166-178.

Available on Blackboard

Richard M. Price, The Chemical Weapons Taboo (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997).

Chapter 2: “The Origins of the Chemical Weapons Taboo,” pp. 14-43.

Required text

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

General Overview of CW Agents/CW Technologies

[Highly recommended] Potential Military Chemical/ Biological Agents and Compounds (Washington, DC: US Army Chemical School, Field Manual FM 3-11.9, 2005), pp. 17-133 (I-4 through III-16)

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended]

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Julian Perry Robinson, CB Weapons Today, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell, 1971), Vol. II., pp. 27-59.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Annex 1: Chemical Agents, in “Public Health Response of Chemical and Biological Weapons” (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2004), pp. 143-200.

Available on Blackboard

Dana A. Shea, “Chemical Effects: A Summary of Characteristics and Effects,” Congressional Research Service, September 13, 2013, pp. 1-15.

Available at: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R42862.pdf

“Technical Aspects of Chemical Weapon Proliferation,” in Technologies Underlying Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: Office of Technical Assessment, U.S. Government, 1993), pp. 15-69.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://fas.org/spp/starwars/ota/934404.pdf

“Chemical Weapons Technology,” in The Militarily Critical Technologies List Part II: Weapons of Mass Destruction Technologies (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 1998), sections: II-4-1 through I-4-37 (pp. 144-180).

Available on Blackboard

Amy Smithson, “Chemical Micro Process Devices,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Innovation, Dual Use, and Security (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012).

Available at: http://site.ebrary.com/lib/georgemason/reader.action?ppg=96&docID=10546483&tm=1450827368302

Choking Agents

Shirley D. Tuorinsky and Alfred M. Sciuto “Toxic Inhalation Injury and Toxic Industrial Chemicals,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), pp. 339-370.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Vesicants/Blistering Agents12

“Mustard Agents,” The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), n.d.

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/about-chemical-weapons/types-of-chemical-agent/mustard-agents/

Charles G. Hurst, John P. Petrali, David J. Barillo, John S. Graham, William J. Smith, John S. Urbanetti, and Frederick R. Sidell., “Vesicants,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), 259-310.

Available on Blackboard

“Vesicants,” in NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations, Part III: Chemical, Chapter 3 (Washington, DC: Departments of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, February 1, 1996).

Available at: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/3ch3.htm

Blood Agents

Steven I. Baskin, James B. Kelly, Beverly I. Maliner, Gary A. Rockwood, and Csaba K. Zoltani, “Cyanide Poisoning,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), 371-410.

Available on Blackboard

Nerve Agents

“Nerve Agents,” The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), n.d.

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/about-chemical-weapons/types-of-chemical-agent/nerve-agents/

Caitriona McLeish and Brian Balmer, “Development of V-Series Nerve Agents,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Innovation, Dual Use, and Security (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012), pp. 273-288.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

12

“Vesicants” are also known as blistering agents.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Frederick R. Sidell, Jonathan Newmark, and John H. McDonough, “Nerve Agents,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), 155-220.

Available on Blackboard

“Nerve Agents,” in NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations, Part III: Chemical (Washington, DC: Departments of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, February 1, 1996).

Available at: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/3ch2.htm

Incapacitating Agents

James S. Ketchum and Harry Salem, “Incapacitating Agents,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), 411-440.

Available on Blackboard

“Incapacitants,” in NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations, Part III: Chemical, Chapter 6 (Washington, DC: Departments of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, February 1, 1996).

Available at: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/3ch6.htm

[Very highly recommended] Mark Wheelis, “The Use and Misuse of LSD by the U.S. Army and CIA,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Innovation, Dual Use, and Security (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012), 289-302.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Riot Control Agents

Harry Salem, Bradford W. Gutting, Timothy A. Kluchinsky, Jr, Charles H. Boardman, Shirley D. Tuorinsky, and Joseph J. Hout, “Riot Control Agents,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), pp. 441-483.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Toxins13

Patrick Williams, Scott Willens, Jaime Anderson, Michael Adler, and Corey J. Hilmas, “Toxins: Established and Emergent Threats,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), pp. 613-644.

Available on Blackboard Herbicides

“Herbicides,” in NATO Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive Operations, Part III: Chemical, Chapter 9 (Washington, DC: Departments of the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force, February 1, 1996).

Available at: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/3ch9.htm

13

See also, the course’s exploration of biological warfare agents.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 8 – March 15, 2016

CHEMICAL II

HISTORY OF CHEMICAL WARFARE: 1914-1988

O v e r v i e w : Having established a basic understanding of chemical warfare agent types and sub-types, we now explore how such agents have fared historically, from the advent of modern chemical warfare during World War I through the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988).

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize the evolution of chemical warfare agent use from 1914-1988.

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Readings:

Engage the readings in the order they are listed.

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations

TBD

I n - C l a s s V i d e o s :

“Gas Warfare in the First World War,” (BBC, 1998) 48 minutes. R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 1 2 9 Jeffery K. Smart, Al Mauroni, Benjamin A. Hill, Jr, and Allart B. Kok, “History

of the Chemical Threat, Chemical Terrorism, and Its Implications for Military Medicine,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), pp. 116-125.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available on Blackboard

Richard M. Price, The Chemical Weapons Taboo (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997), pp. 44-164.

Required Text

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

[Highly recommended] Julian Perry Robinson, The Rise of CB Weapons, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell, 1971), Vol. I., pp. 26-111.

Available on Blackboard

Corey Hilmas, Jeffrey K. Smart, and Benjamin A. Hill Jr, “History of Chemical Warfare,” in Shirley D. Tourinsky, ed., Medical Aspects of Chemical Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2008), pp. 10-62.

Available on Blackboard

[Highly recommended] Theodore Karasik, Toxic Warfare (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1572.pdf

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 9 – March 22, 2016

CHEMICAL III:

IRAQ, LIBYA, SYRIA, & THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

O v e r v i e w :

This week we focus on Iraqi (1989-2003), Libyan, and Syrian chemical weapons behavior. Additionally, we address chemical warfare and the Former Yugoslavia.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize, compare, and contrast the evolution of the Iraqi, Libyan, and Syrian chemical warfare programs and relevant U.S. polices.

Delineate salient aspects of chemical warfare and the former Yugoslavia.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Handle the readings in the order they appear.

R e m i n d e r s :

We have our second in-class quiz next week.

Essay II is due next week.

Student Presentations:

TBD

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 8 1

United States Senate, Select Committee on Intelligence, Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq, July 7, 2004, pp. 195-214.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Jonathan Tucker, “The Rollback of Libya’s Chemical Weapons Program,” Nonproliferation Review 16 (Fall 2009), pp. 363-382.

Available on Blackboard

“Syria’s Chemical Weapons: Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, September 30, 2013, pp. 1-28.

Available on Blackboard

Eric Sterner, “Dictators and Deterrence: Syria's Assad, Chemical Weapons, and the Threat of U.S. Military Action,” Comparative Strategy, 33 (2014), pp. 407-423.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

The United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), Compendium of Iraq’s Proscribed Weapons Programs in the Chemical, Biological, and Missile Areas (New York: United Nations, June 2007).

Chapter III: “The Chemical Weapons Programme,” pp. 48-343.

Available on Blackboard

Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, Volume III: “Iraq’s Chemical Warfare Program,” (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, September 30, 2004), pp. 1-123.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5.html

[Highly recommended] Zuhair Diab, “Syria’s Chemical and Biological Weapons: Assessing Capabilities and Motivations,” Nonproliferation Review 3 (Fall 1997), pp. 104-110.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended – addresses the former Yugoslavia and CW] Theodore Karasik, Toxic Warfare (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1572.pdf

Page 49: Arlington & Fairfax VA - X s p r i n g 2 0 1 6 x X N U C L E A R B I O … · 2017-03-01 · Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer: The First Lectures on how to Build and Atomic Bomb

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W 1 W 2 W 3 W 4 W 5 W 6 W 7 W 8 W 9 W 10 W 11 W 12 W 13 W 14 CLICK HERE

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 10 – March 29, 2016

CHEMICAL IV:

CHEMICAL WARFARE &

THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME

O v e r v i e w : This week we explore the chemical weapons nonproliferation regime. However, prior to this topic exploration, we have our second in-class quiz. Additionally, this week you submit essay II. In order to facilitate your preparation for these two graded items, readings for Weeks 10 and 11 are lighter than usual.

O b j e c t i v e s :

Materials for the week enable you to:

Identify and summarize the evolution and primary features of the chemical weapons nonproliferation regime.

A s s i g n m e n t s :

Readings

Engage the reading materials in the order they appear.

Prepare for quiz II

Craft and post essay II

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations:

TBD

As noted, this week we have quiz II and essay II. R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 8 “Origins of the Chemical Weapons Convention and the OPCW,” Organisation

for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Fact Sheet 1 (Revised September 12, 2014). (4 pages.)

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/Fact_Sheets/Fact_Sheet_1_-_History.pdf

“The Chemical Weapons Convention: A Synopsis of the Text,” Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Fact Sheet 2 (Revised September 12, 2014). (4 pages.)

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/Fact_Sheets/Fact_Sheet_2_-_CWC.pdf

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

Center for Nonproliferation Studies / Nuclear Threat Initiative, “Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (CWC),” 2015.

Available at: http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/convention-prohibition-development-production-stockpiling-and-use-chemical-weapons-and-their-destruction-cwc/

[Full text of the Chemical Weapons Convention] Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, “Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction.”

See especially, “Annex on Chemicals,” pp, 49-62.

Available at: https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/CWC/CWC_en.pdf

Jozef Goldblat, CB Disarmament Negotiations, 1920-1970, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell, 1971), Vol. IV.

Available on Blackboard

Center for Nonproliferation Studies / Nuclear Threat Initiative, “India-Pakistan Agreement on Chemical Weapons,” 2015.

Available at: http://www.nti.org/treaties-and-regimes/india-pakistan-agreement-on-chemical-weapons/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Milton Leitenberg and Raymond A Zilinskas, Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History (Cumberland, RI: Harvard University Press, 2012).

Chapter 19: “Recalcitrant Russian Policies in a Parallel Area: Chemical Weapon Demilitarization,” pp. 507-522.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 11 – April 5, 2016

BIOLOGICAL I:

BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AGENTS AND BIOWEAPONS

O v e r v i e w : Having completed our exploration of relevant nuclear and chemical issues, we begin the course’s four-part journey into biological warfare (BW). Mindful of prerequisite knowledge inherent in any informed handling of BW security concerns and policy (in non-governmental study and policy environments, as well as government institutions and agencies), this week we establish a general understanding of biological warfare agents. In order to facilitate your preparation of essay II, readings for this week are light.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Identify, describe, compare, and contrast general biological warfare agent types and sub-types.

Summarize general principles of biological warfare agent weaponization and delivery.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Engage the required readings in the order they appear.

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations:

TBD I n - C l a s s V i d e o :

“The Living Weapon” (John Rubin, American Experience, 2007), 52

minutes.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 3 0

Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare (New York: Springer-Verlag, 2002).

Chapter 7: “Basic Concepts,” pp. 193-218.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Michael Whitby, Alan C. Street, Tilman A. Ruff and Frank Fenner, “Biological Agents as Weapons 1: Smallpox and Botulism,” Medical Journal of Australia 176 (May 2002), pp. 431-3.

Available on Blackboard

Michael Whitby, Tilman A Ruff, Alan C. Street and Frank J. Fenner, “Biological Agents as Weapons 2: Anthrax and Plague,” Medical Journal of Australia 176 (June 2002), pp. 605-608.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF BW AGENTS

Videos from the Center for Disease Control (CDC): “The History of Bioterrorism,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC Emergency Risk Communication Branch (ERCB), Division of Emergency (1999).

Includes commentary by William C. Patrick III.

Available at: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/training/historyofbt/ BW AGENT /TECHNOLOGY

U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, The Militarily Critical Technologies List Part II: Weapons of Mass Destruction Technologies (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1998), pp. 1-18.

Available at: http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec03.pdf

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

William M. Evan and Bret B. Hays, “Dual-Use Technology in the Context of the Non-Proliferation Regime,” History and Technology: An International Journal 22 (2006), pp. 105-113.

Available on Blackboard

Andrew Hessel, Marc Goodman, and Steven Kotler, “Hacking the President’s DNA," Atlantic Magazine, November 2012.

Available at: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/hacking-the-presidents-dna/309147/?single_page=true

INCAPACITATING BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

[Highly recommended] Alan Pearson, “Incapacitating Biochemical Weapons: Science, Technology, and Policy for the 21st Century,” Nonproliferation Review 13 (July 2006), pp. 151-188.

Available on Blackboard

SPECIFIC BIOLOGICAL WARFARE AGENTS

BACTERIUM

Bacillus anthracis Causative agent of anthrax [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Bacillus anthracis (anthrax).”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/

Bret K. Purcell, Patricia L. Worsham, and Arthur M. Friedlander,” Anthrax,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 69-90.

Available on Blackboard

Anjun Mehta, “Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis),” in Geoffrey Zubay, et al., Agent of Bioterrorism: Pathogens and their Weaponization (New York: Columbia University Press, 2005), pp. 129-172.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available on Blackboard [forthcoming]

Reserve item – do not distribute.

R. C. Spencer, “Bacillus anthracis,” Journal of Clinical Pathology 56 (March 2003), pp. 182-187.

Available on Blackboard

Brucella Causative agent of brucellosis [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “brucellosis.”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/brucellosis/

Bret K. Purcell, David L. Hoover, and Arthur M. Friedlander, “Brucellosis,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 185-198.

Available on Blackboard Burkholderia pseudomallei Causative agent of melioidosis [bacterium]

Nicholas J. Vietri and David Deshazer, “Melioidosis,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 147-166.

Available on Blackboard

Coxiella burnetii Causative agent of Q-Fever [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Q-Fever.”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/qfever/

David M. Waag, “Q Fever,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 147-166.

Available on Blackboard

Francisella tularensis Causative agent of tularemia [bacterium]

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Francisella tularensis (tularemia).”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/tularemia/

David T. Dennis, et al. “Tularemia as a Biological Weapon,” Journal of The American Medical Association 285 (2001).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/Agent/Tularemia/TularemiaConsensus.pdf

Matthew J. Hepburn, Arthur M. Friedlander, and Zygmunt F. Dembek, “Tularemia,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 167-184.

Available on Blackboard

Eric Croddy and Sarka Krcalova, “Tularemia, Biological Warfare, and the Battle for Stalingrad (1942-1943),” Military Medicine 66 (2001), 837-838.

Available on Blackboard

Yersinia pestis Causative agent of plague [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Yersinia pestis (plague).”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/plague/

Patricia L. Worsham, Thomas W. McGovern, Nicholas J. Vietri, and Arthur M. Friedlander, “Plague,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 91-119.

Available on Blackboard Vibrio cholera

Causative agent of cholera [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Cholera.”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/cholera/index.html

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

VIRUSES

Alphavirus encephalitides

Keith E. Steele, Douglas S. Reed, Pamela J. Glass, Mary Kate Hart, George V. Ludwig, William D. Pratt, Michael D. Parker, and Jonathan F. Smith, “Alphavirus Encephalitides,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 91-119.

Available on Blackboard

Marburg

World Health Organization Factsheet: “Marburg hemorrhagic fever.”

Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_marburg/en/

Variola major

Causative agent of smallpox [virus]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Variola major (smallpox).”

Available at: http://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/smallpox/overview/disease-facts.asp?mobile=false

Peter B. Jahrling, John W. Huggins, M. Sofi Ibrahim, James V. Lawler, and James W. Martin, “Smallpox and Related Orthopoxviruses,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 215-240.

Available on Blackboard

Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers

Peter B. Jahrling, Aileen M. Marty, and Thomas W. Geisbert, “Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 271-310.

Available on Blackboard

Ebola

World Health Organization Factsheet: “Ebola.”

Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

TOXINS

General

Peter D. Anderson, “Bioterrorism: Toxins as Weapons,” Journal of Pharmacy Practice 25 (2012), pp. 121-129.

Available on Blackboard

Kermit D. Huebner, Robert W. Wannemacher, Jr., Bradley G. Stiles, Michel R. Popoff, and Mark A. Poli, “Additional Toxins of Clinical Concern,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 355-389.

Available on Blackboard

Jason Ramage and Segaran Pillai, “The Public Health Response to Potential Toxin Bioterrorism,” in P. Gopalakrishnakine et al., eds., Toxinology [Volume 1: Biological Toxins and Bioterrorism] (Dordrecht, AN: Springer Netherlands, 2015), pp. 323-355.

Available on Blackboard

Clostridium botulinum Causative agent of botulinum neurotoxin / botulism [toxin]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Clostridium botulinum” (botulinum neurotoxin / botulism).

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/nczved/divisions/dfbmd/diseases/botulism/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Stephen S. Arnon et al., "Botulinum Toxin as a Biological Weapon: Medical and Public Health Management," Journal of The American Medical Association 285 (2001), pp. 1059-1070.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/botulism/botulismconsensus.pdf

Zygmunt F. Dembek, Leonard A. Smith, and Janice M. Rusna, “Botulinum Toxin,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 337-353.

Available on Blackboard Ricinus communis (ricin)

Dana A. Shea, and Frank Grottron, “Ricin: Technical Background and Potential Role in Terrorism,” Congressional Research Service, April 17, 2013.

Available at: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rs21383.pdf

Mark A. Poli, Chad Roy, Kermit D. Huebner, David R. Franz, and Nancy K. Jaax, “Ricin,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 323-335.

Available on Blackboard

AGRICULTURAL AND LIVESTOCK General

Zygmunt F. Dembek and Edwin L. Anderson, “Food, Waterborne, and Agricultural Diseases,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 21-38.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

[Highly recommended] Federation of American Scientists. Case Studies in Agricultural Biosecurity, 2011.

Available at: http://fas.org/biosecurity/education/dualuse-agriculture/index.html

Mark Wheelis, Rocco Casagrande, and Laurence V. Madden, “Biological Attack on Agriculture: Low-Tech, High-Impact Bioterrorism,” BioScience 52 (2002), pp. 569-76.

Available on Blackboard

Lesley Seebeck, “Responding to Systemic Crisis: The Case of Agroterrorism,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 30 (2007), pp. 691-721.

Available on Blackboard Staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB)

Robert G. Ulrich, Catherine L. Wilhelmsen, and Teresa Krakauer, “Staphylococcal Enterotoxin B and Related Toxins,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 271-310.

Available on Blackboard

Ejem Ahantou et al., “Staphylococcal Enterotoxin B as a Biological Weapon: Recognition, Management, and Surveillance of Staphylococcal Enterotoxin,” Applied Biosafety 11 (2006), pp. 120-126.

Available on Blackboard

Burkholderia mallei Causative agent of glanders [bacterium]

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Factsheet: “Glanders.”

Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/glanders/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Bridget Carr Gregory and David M. Waagin, “Glanders,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 121-146.

Available on Blackboard Aphtae epizooticae Causative agent of Foot-and-Mouth disease [virus]

[Highly recommended] Jerzy Wisniewski, Aerogenic Dissemination of Aphtae Epizooticae (Airforce Systems Command, Foreign Technology Division, 1980). (14 pages.)

Available on Blackboard

Kenneth B. Whitt, “Terrorism: Foot-and-Mouth Disease as an Option,” U.S. Army War College [Strategy Research Project] (Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, 2002), pp. 1-23.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://hsdl.org/?view&did=976

Michael E. Peterson, “Agroterrorism and Foot-and-Mouth Disease: Is the United States Prepared?” In, Barry R. Schneider and Jim A. Davis, eds., Gathering Biological Warfare Storm (Santa Barbara, CA: Greenwood Publishing Group, 2004).

Available at: https://books.google.com/books/about/The_Gathering_Biological_Warfare_Storm.html?id=_qIcodIuIDUC

Paul Gibbs, “The Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic of 2001 in the UK: Implications for the USA and the ‘War on Terror’,” Journal of Veterinary Medical Education 30 (Summer 2003), pp.121-32.

Available on Blackboard [forthcoming]

Putative/Apocryphal “Do It Yourself” BW Agents and their Weaponization

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Uncle Fester, Silent Death (Port Townsend WA: Loompanics Unlimited, 1997).

Available on Blackboard

.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 12 – April 12, 2016

BIOLOGICAL II:

HISTORY OF BIOLOGICAL WARFARE

O v e r v i e w : Bolstered with a basic understanding of biological warfare agents, we now investigate nefarious use of these agents over time.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Describe salient historical episodes of biological warfare agent use.

Summarize, compare, and contrast offensive biological state programs, especially those of United States and the Soviet Union / Russia.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Engage the required readings in the order they appear.

R e m i n d e r s :

Student Presentations:

TBD

I n - C l a s s V i d e o :

“Naval Concepts of Chemical and Biological Warfare” (U.S. Department of Defense, 1952). (15 minutes.)

“Plague Wars: Apocalypse Delayed,” (Paladin Pictures, July 1998). (45 minutes.)

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : 1 1 3

Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare (New York: Springer-

Verlag, 2002).

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Chapter 8: “Biological Warfare: A Brief History,” pp. 193-218.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Jonathan Tucker, “A Farewell to Germs: The U.S. Renunciation of Biological and Toxin Warfare, 1969-70,” International Security 27 (September 2002), pp. 107–148.

Available on Blackboard

Milton Leitenberg and Raymond A Zilinskas, Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History (Cumberland, RI, USA: Harvard University Press, 2012).

Chapter 22: “Boris Yeltsin to the Present,” pp. 631-678.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve reading: do not distribute.

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

General

James M. Martin, George W. Christopher, and Edward M. Eitzen, “History of Biological Weapons: From Poisoned Dart to Intentional Epidemics,” in Zygmunt F. Dembek, ed., Medical Aspects of Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 2007), pp. 339-370.

Available on Blackboard

Milton Leitenberg, “Biological Weapons in the Twentieth Century: A Review and Analysis,” Critical Reviews in Microbiology 27 (Winter 2001), pp. 267-320.

Available on Blackboard

Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism Threat (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 2005).

Part II: “The Evolution of State Biological Weapons Programs,” pp. 11-20.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=639

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Iran

Iran, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated July 2014). Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/biological/ Iraq

Iraq, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated February 2013).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iraq/biological/

[Highly recommended] Iraq Survey Group, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, Volume III: “Iraq’s Biological Warfare Program,” (U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, September 30, 2004).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/iraq_wmd_2004/chap6.html

[Highly recommended] UNMOVIC, Compendium of Iraq’s Proscribed Weapons Programs in the Chemical, Biological, and Missile Areas (United Nations, June 2007).

Chapter V: “The Biological Weapons Programme,” pp. 766-1030.

Available on Blackboard Israel

Israel, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated February 2013).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/biological/

Avner Cohen, “Israel and Chemical and Biological Weapons: History Deterrence and Arms Control,” Nonproliferation Review 8 (Fall-Winter 2001)

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/83cohen.pdf North Korea

North Korea, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated, December 2014).

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/north-korea/biological/

South Africa

South Africa, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated, June 2014).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/south-africa/biological/

Chandre Gould and Peter Folb, “Project Coast: Apartheid’s Chemical and Biological Warfare Programme” (United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, 2002).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/project-coast-apartheid-s-chemical-and-biological-warfare-programme-296.pdf

Soviet Union and Russia

Russia, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated, June 2014).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/russia/biological/

[Very interesting US and NATO internal communications (some recently declassified) regarding the 1977 “Sverdlovsk Incident.”]

Available (with index) at: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1977-80v26/ch2

Entire PDF document: Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XXVI, Arms Control and Nonproliferation, Chemical and Biological Weapons, “The Sverdlovsk Incident.” available on Blackboard.

[Very highly recommended] Milton Leitenberg and Raymond A Zilinskas, Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History (Cumberland, RI: Harvard University Press, 2012).

Chapter 1: “The Soviet Union’s Biological Warfare Program, 1918-1972,” pp 16-50.

Chapter 2: “Beginning of the ‘Modern’ Soviet BW Program, 1970-1977,” pp. 51-78.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Chapter 3: “USSR Ministry of Defense Facilities and its Biological Warfare Program,” pp. 79-120.

Chapter 13: “United States Covert Biological Warfare Disinformation,” pp. 397-406.

Chapter 19: “Recalcitrant Russian Policies in a Parallel Area: Chemical Weapon Demilitarization,” pp. 507-522.

Chapter 22: “The Gorbachev Years: The Soviet Biological Weapons Program, 1985-1992,” pp. 562-630.

“Conclusion,” pp. 698-712.

All seven chapters available on Blackboard All seven chapters are reserve items – do not distribute.

See also: John R Walker, “The Leitenberg-Zilinskas History of the Soviet Biological Weapons Programme,” Harvard Sussex Program Occasional Paper, no. 2 (December 2012), pp. 2–14.

Available at: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/spru/hsp/occasional%20papers/HSPOP_2.pdf

Caitriona McLeish, “Opening up the Secret City of Stepnogorsk: Biological Weapons in the Former Soviet Union,” Area 42 (March 2010), pp. 60-69.

Available on Blackboard

Raymond Zilinskas, “The Anti-plague System and the Soviet Biological Warfare Program,” Critical Reviews in Microbiology 32 (2006), pp. 47-64.

Available on Blackboard

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, “Growth of the Anti-Plague System During the Soviet Period,” Critical Reviews in Microbiology 32 (2006), pp. 33–46.

Available on Blackboard

Syria

Syria, Biological. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (Last updated, August 2014).

Available at: http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/syria/biological/

United States

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

David R. Franz, Cheryl D. Parrott, and Ernest T. Takafuji, “The U.S. Biological Warfare and Biological Defense Programs,” in Frederick R. Sidell, Ernest T. Takafuji, and David R. Franz, eds., Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Warfare (Washington, DC: Office of The Surgeon General, 1997), pp. 425-436.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 13 – April 19, 2016

BIOLOGICAL III:

“BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM”

O v e r v i e w :

The perceived threat of “biological terrorism” commands large U.S. attention and vast resources. This week we explore threat and security perceptions and U.S. policy.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize, compare, and contrast incidents of violent-non-state actors’ (VNSA) involvement with biological warfare agents.

Contextualize, compare, and contrast so-called “biological terrorism” with other VNSA security threats.

Describe related U.S. biological warfare assessments and policies. A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Handle the readings in the order they appear.

R e m i n d e r s :

Quiz III is next week.

Essay III is next week

Student Presentations:

TBD

R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 9 4

Milton Leitenberg, “The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of Bioterrorism,” Nonproliferation Review 16 (2009), pp. 95-109.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism Threat (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 2005).

Part III: “Evolution of Nonstate Actor / Terrorist Biological Weapons Capability,” pp. 21-42.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=639

Kathleen M. Vogel, Phantom Menace or Looming Danger: A New Framework for Assessing Bioweapons Threats (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2013).

Chapter 2: “Technological Frames and Narratives in U.S. Bioweapons Assessments and Policymaking,” pp. 16-55.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

One additional readings TBD

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

Seth Carus, Bioterrorism and Biocrimes: The Illicit Use of Biological Agents Since 1900 (Washington, DC: National Defense University, 2001).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: https://fas.org/irp/threat/cbw/carus.pdf

Federation of American Scientists (FAS), “Biological Threat Agents.”

Available at: http://www.fas.org/biosecurity/resource/agents.htm

United States, National Security Council (NSC), National Strategy for Countering Biological Threats, November 2009.

Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/National_Strategy_for_Countering_BioThreats.pdf

Center for Disease Control (CDC) Videos:

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

“The History of Bioterrorism,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC Emergency Risk Communication Branch (ERCB), Division of Emergency (1999).

Includes commentary by William C. Patrick III.

Available at: http://www.bt.cdc.gov/training/historyofbt/

Anne L. Clunan, Peter R. Lavoy, and Susan B. Martin, eds., Terrorism, War or Disease? (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2008).

Chapter 14: Susan B. Martin and Anne L. Clunan, "Conclusion: The Role of Attribution in Biosecurity Policy,” pp. 311-328.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Frank Gottron & Dana A. Shea, “Small-Scale Terrorist Attacks Using Chemical and Biological Agents: An Assessment Framework and Preliminary Comparisons,” Congressional Research Service, June 23, 2004, pp. 1-89.

Available at: http://fas.org/irp/crs/RL32391-062304.pdf

Jerald M. Post, “Psychological and Motivational Factors in Terrorist Decision-Making: Implications for CBW Terrorism,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), pp. 271-290.

Available on Blackboard

Gautum Mukunda, Kenneth A. Oye, and Scott C. Mohr, “What Rough Beast? Synthetic Biology, Uncertainty, and the Future of Biosecurity,” Politics and the Life Sciences 28 (September 2009), pp. 2-26.

Available on Blackboard

[Ricin & Terrorism] Charles P. Blair, “Barely Lethal,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 12, 2013.

Available on Blackboard

William C. Patrick, III, “Biological Terrorism and Aerosol Dissemination,” Politics and the Life Sciences 15 (September 1996), pp. 208-210.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

CASE STUDIES

Department of Justice, Amerithrax Investigative Summary (Washington, DC: Department of Justice, February 19, 2010).

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.justice.gov/archive/amerithrax/docs/amx-investigative-summary.pdf

Jonathan B. Tucker, "New Questions about the FBI's Anthrax Case: Valid Concerns or Red Herring?" Center for Nonproliferation Studies, WMD Junction. August 22, 2011.

Available at: http://cns.miis.edu/wmdjunction/110822_fbi_anthrax.htm

Jessica Eve Stern, “Larry Wayne Harris,” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), pp. 227-246.

Available on Blackboard

W Seth Carus, “The Rajneeshees (1984),” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), pp. 116-137.

Available on Blackboard

W Seth Carus, “R.I.S.E. (1972),” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), pp. 55-70.

Available on Blackboard

David E. Kaplan, “Aum Shinrikyo (1995),” in Jonathan B. Tucker, ed., Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000), pp. 207-226.

Available on Blackboard

Marc Sageman, Terrance Leighton, Lloyd Hough, Hidemi Yuki, Rui Kotani and Zachary M. Hosfor, “Aum Shinrikyo: Insights into how Terrorists Develop Biological and Chemical Weapons,” Centers for a New American Security, December 2012, pp. 16-26 and 45-46.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Also available at: http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_AumShinrikyo_SecondEdition_English.pdf

Ian Reader, Violence in Contemporary Japan: The Case of Aum Shinrikyo (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2000).

Chapter 3: “Creation, Preservation and Destruction – The Development and Nature of the Religion of Supreme Truth,” pp. 61-94.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Ian Reader, “Murder on the Tokyo Subway: Nerve Centres, Religion and Violence,” Space and Polity 17 (2013), pp. 377–392.

Available on Blackboard

Amy Smithson and Leslie-Anne Levy, “Ataxia,” Stimson Report 35. October 9, 2000.

Chapter 3: “Rethinking the Lesson of Tokyo.”

Available at: http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

WEEK 14 – April 26, 2016

BIOLOGICAL IV:

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS (NON)PROLIFERATION

O v e r v i e w :

This week we investigate the (non)proliferation of biological weapons and the nonproliferation regime. Additionally, we have our final in-class quiz and you submit essay III. Mindful of the quiz and essay, readings for this week are relatively light.

O b j e c t i v e s :

This week’s material enables you to:

Summarize and analyze the biological nonproliferation regime.

A s s i g n m e n t :

Readings

Engage the reading materials in the order they appear.

Student Presentations

TBD

Prepare for this week’s quiz III

Craft and post essay III.

R e m i n d e r s :

Quiz IV (due date: May 10, 7:20 p.m.) (Conducted via Blackboard. Details given in-class – Week 13)

Essay IV (due date: May 10, no later than 11 p.m.) R e a d i n g s :

R E Q U I R E D - t o t a l p a g e s : ~ 5 4

BWC Text:

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

“Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (BTWC).”

Available at: http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Bio/pdf/Text_of_the_Convention.pdf

John Hart and Ralf Trapp, “Science, Technology, and the Biological Weapons Convention,” Arms Control Today 42 (October 2012), pp. 15-21.

Available on Blackboard

Milton Leitenberg and Raymond A Zilinskas, Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History (Cumberland, RI, USA: Harvard University Press, 2012).

Chapter 23: “United States and International Efforts to Prevent Proliferation of Biological Weapons from the Former Soviet Union,” pp. 679-697.

Available on Blackboard

Reserve item – do not distribute.

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, “Dissuading Biological Weapons Proliferation,” Contemporary Security Policy 34 (December 2013), pp. 473-500.

Available on Blackboard

A N C I L L A R Y R E S O U R C E S

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley and Kathleen Vogel, “The Social Context Shaping Bioweapons (Non)proliferation,” Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science 8 (March 2010), pp. 9-24.

Available on Blackboard

Sonia Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, “Barriers to Bioweapons: Intangible Obstacles to Proliferation,” International Security 36 (Spring 2012), pp. 80–114.

Available on Blackboard

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Milton Leitenberg, “Distinguishing Offensive from Defensive Biological Weapons Research,” Critical Reviews in Microbiology 29 (2003), pp. 223-57.

Available on Blackboard

Federation of American Scientists, “Case Studies in Dual Use Biological Research.”

Browse slowly in general. However, go through all nine (9) Modules thoroughly enough so that you can explain them to others. Pay special attention to Module 3.0: Aerosol Drug Delivery Research.

Available at: http://www.fas.org/biosecurity/education/dualuse/index.html

Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism Threat (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, 2005).

Part IV: “Framing the ‘Threat’ and Setting the Agenda of Public Perception and Policy Prescriptions,” pp. 43-64.

Part V: “Costs and Consequences of the U.S. Biodefense Program,” pp. 65-86.

Available on Blackboard

Also available at: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=639

.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

APPENDIX I

MATERIALS, ASSIGNMENTS, AND METRICS

Required Texts

Richard M. Price, The Chemical Weapons Taboo (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997).

Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 2002). (Second Edition)

Broad Course Requirements

1. Complete and contemplate the required course materials: readings, lectures, videos, etc.

2. Recognize and satisfy the obligations delineated in the three appendices of this document. Note especially: “graded material”:

a. Four essays: Written responses to weekly materials. Spread throughout the semester, each essay is crafted outside of class and posted on Blackboard.

b. Four quizzes: Spread throughout the semester, each quiz is short answer/multiple choice.

c. Presentation: Each student presents once during the course of the semester.

Grading Metrics:

Your final course grade is based on Four Elements: 1. Essays (four at 15 points each): 60 points 2. Quizzes (three at 10 points each; I drop lowest score): 20 points 3. Final quiz (one – Online via Blackboard): 15 points 4. Presentation (one): 5 points

……………

TOTAL: 100 points

LETTER GRADES & POINTS

100 -94 points A

93 - 90 points A-

89 - 87 points B+

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

86 - 84 points B

83 - 80 points B-

79 - 77 points C+

76 - 74 points C

73 - 70 points C-

Assignments / Assessments:

1 . E S S A Y S Overview In terms of final course grades, essays equal a maximum of 60 points. There are four essays in total, each worth 15 points. Essays are straight-forward: I supply a question(s) with regard to subject matter covered through a given week (e.g., readings, lectures, student presentations, videos, etc.); you respond with a thoughtful, cogent, and properly referenced essay. Word counts vary; generally in the range of 1600 words. I post a given essay’s topic(s) to Blackboard the week before it’s due. You subsequently post your completed—hopefully brilliant— essay to Blackboard. See: Blackboard > Discussion Board > Essay. Essays are due on the following dates, all by 11 p.m. EST:

Essay I: February 27 Essay II: April 2 Essay III: April 30 Essay IV: May 10

Scoring & Criteria Each of the four essays has a maximum of 15 points.

15 Points:

Outstanding essay; many sharp insights. Reflects substantive engagement with all required course readings, lectures, student presentations, films,

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

videos, and other course materials to date. An articulate piece bolstered with superior writing ability; a post that is an example for all others in this course to follow.

13-14 Points:

Excellent essay; several keen insights. Reflects almost all required course readings, lectures, student presentations, films, videos, and other course materials to date. Articulate and cogent: a solid execution.

11-12 Points:

Good essay; some relevant insights. Reflects most of the required course readings, lectures, student presentations, films, videos, and other course materials to date. Displays a passable understanding of salient facts blended with cogent contextualization; an effective academic expression.

10 Points:

Quality of essay is largely unacceptable.

1-9 Points:

Quality of essay lands into one of several unacceptable zones.

2 . Q U I Z Z E S

Overview Quizzes cover the facts—indispensable data for the study / practice of NBC policy and security. Quizzes are short answer and multiple choice. Quizzes 1-3 are in-class; each of the three is worth 10 ten points. I drop your lowest score; e.g., you might naturally elect to forego one of these three in-class quizzes entirely.

Quiz 4—mandatory and worth 15 points—is Online (via Blackboard).

All quizzes are short answer and/or multiple choice.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

More information regarding quizzes is given in-class, one week prior to a specific quiz.

Quiz 1: Week 6 (February 23) (In-class) Quiz 2: Week 10 (March 29) (In-class) Quiz 3: Week 14 (April 26) (In-class) Quiz 4: Administered via Blackboard, May 10 at 7:20 p.m.

Scoring & Criteria Self-explanatory: answers are simply right or wrong. Axiomatic scoring.

3 . P R E S E N T A T I O N

Overview Over the course of the semester you give one (1) presentation worth five (5) points. I establish specific topic(s), length, presentation date, etc., in class. Scoring & Criteria

5 Points:

Highly topical, educational, sharp, insightful, original, accessible.

4 Points:

Highly topical, easy to follow, somewhat thought provoking, educational.

3 Points:

Topical, generally clear, average insights.

2 Points and under:

A painful experience.

Turning Things In Late

You are welcome to turn essays 1-3 in late. The penalty is a 15 percent daily subtraction from the maximum score possible. If a given essay is turned in the day it is due, but after

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

the assigned time, it is considered one day late (i.e., 15 percent is subtracted). After 24 hours, it is considered two days late (i.e., a total of 30 percent is subtracted), etc.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

APPENDIX II

NUMBERS & LINKS

Instructor: Charles P. Blair Email: [email protected] Cell: 202 510 2802

Blackboard: https://mymasonportal.gmu.edu

Academic Calendar: http://registrar.gmu.edu/calendars/spring-2016/

GMU’s Final Exam Schedule: http://registrar.gmu.edu/calendars/spring-2016/final-exams/

Weather Emergency Phone Line: 703-993-1000. Emergency Notices Web Page: http://esgwebproxy.johnshopkins.edu/notice/

Mason Alert Emergency Notification System: http://ready.gmu.edu/masonalert/

Campus Police: 911 or (703) 993-2810. Non-emergency: (703) 993-2800. http://police.gmu.edu/contact-us/

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

APPENDIX III

UNIVERSITY POLICIES Honor Code Students must adhere to the guidelines of the George Mason University Honor Code [See http://www.gmu.edu/academics/catalog/9798/honorcod.html]. Student Privacy The Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act of 1974 (FERPA), also known as the "Buckley Amendment," is a federal law that gives protection to student educational records and provides students with certain rights. [See http://registrar.gmu.edu/privacy].

MasonLive/Email Students are responsible for the content of university communications sent to their George Mason University email account and are required to activate their account and check it regularly. All communication from the university, college, school, and program will be sent to students solely through their Mason email account. [See https://masonlivelogin.gmu.edu/login]. Counseling and Psychological Services The George Mason University Counseling and Psychological Services (CAPS) staff consists of professional counseling and clinical psychologists, social workers, and counselors who offer a wide range of services (e.g., individual and group counseling, workshops and outreach programs) to enhance students' personal experience and academic performance [See http://caps.gmu.edu or call (703) 993-2380]. Students with Disabilities If you are a student with a disability and you need academic accommodations, please see me and contact the Disability Resource Center (DRC) at 993-2474. All academic accommodations must be arranged through the DRC. Writing Center The George Mason University Writing Center staff provides a variety of resources and services (e.g., tutoring, workshops, writing guides, and handbooks) intended to support students as they work to construct and share knowledge through writing. [See http://writingcenter.gmu.edu]. University Catalog University Catalog http://catalog.gmu.edu, is the central resource for university policies affecting student, faculty, and staff conduct in university academic affairs. Other policies are available at http://universitypolicy.gmu.edu/. All members of the university community are responsible for knowing and following established policies.

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

Other Considerations If there are any issues (e.g., religious holidays), please inform me the first week of class.

Weekly Readings by the Numbers Last update: January 6, 2016

Week / Topic Required Pages (tentative)

Comments

1 (N 1: N science) 46 Required home video (“Day After Trinity”)

2 (N 2: policy 1942-1990) 143 Required home video (“MAD”) 45 min

3 (N 3: policy 1991-2015; BMD) 146

4 (N 4: Hans Kristensen – China & Russia) 130

5 (N 5: Rogues & Regime) 121

6 (N 6: C3I; N Terrorism) 78 Quiz / Essay

7 (C 1: C Science) 45

8 (C 2: C Warfare: 1914-1988) 129

9 (C 3: Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.) 81

10 (C 4: Regime) 8 Quiz / Essay

11 (B 1: B science) 30

12 (B 2: History of BW) 131

13 (B 3: B Terrorism) 94

14 (B 4: Regime) 54 Quiz / Essay

Average: 88 pages per week

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01/19 01/26 02/02 02/09 02/16 02/23 03/01 03/15 03/22 03/29 04/05 04/12 04/19 04/26

Nuclear I

Nuclear II

Nuclear III

Nuclear IV

Nuclear V

Nuclear VI

Chemical I

Chemical II

Chemical III

Chemical IV

Biological I

Biological II

Biological III

Biological IV

TOP Appendix I: Assignments Appendix II: Important Numbers Appendix III: University Policies SUMMARY TABLE

“No man should leave our universities without knowing how little he knows”

J. Robert Oppenheimer