Marquette Asset Management, Inc.

Arizona Market

Economic UpdateApril 2013

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Sequestration

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• In 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act which imposed caps to reduce discretionary spending by over $1 trillion from 2012-2021. In addition, this act established the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Committee to reduce the deficit by an additional $1.2 trillion, but in the case that they were unsuccessful, automatic spending cuts would be applied across the board beginning in January 2013. This deadline was moved to March 1, 2013 by the fiscal cliff negotiations at the year end of 2012.

• Sequestration will reduce total government spending authority by $85 billion in fiscal year 2013. The $85 billion of cuts in spending authority would amount to fiscal drag of about 0.55% of GDP in fiscal year 2013. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that discretionary outlays will only drop by $35 billion and mandatory spending will be reduced by $9 billion. This would delay some of the effects of sequestration until the following fiscal year, possibly cutting the effective amount of fiscal drag in FY13 in half.

• While the sequester would help bring down the deficit over the next few years, it does little in the way of addressing the larger issue of entitlement spending, and as a result, the deficit would begin growing again in 2016, even if the sequester were fully implemented.

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The Stock Market Surge

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S&P 500 Index

• US equity markets advanced approximately 10% in 1Q-13. The various concerns about Europe, China, the US debt situation, and the Mideast have been factored into the market and have not caused any serious correction in stock prices. Investors are being forced into riskier assets, such as stocks, because the outlook is for interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future.

• In the bigger picture, the monetary environment, corporate earnings, and general equity valuations are likely to provide longer term support.

• Most important for the U.S. equity market is the domestic earnings outlook. In order for the S&P 500 to continue to move higher, investors will need to see continued sustainability of profit growth. Earnings growth rates are at risk of slowing over the next few years and margin pressures are likely to increase as productivity growth decelerates, and should be monitored.

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S&P Financial Sector / S&P 500 Index

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Housing Trends

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100

120

140

160

180

200

220

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Case Shiller Composite 20 Home Price IndexAs of 1/31/13

Source: Case-Shiller

• House prices ended 2012 on a high note and new home sales got off to a very strong start in 2013. Prices have held up during the historically weak late fall period and buyers’ intentions are supportive of further gains.

• Of the 20 metro areas tracked by the Case-Shiller monthly index, eight saw prices rise by more than 10% during 2012, led by a 23% increase in Phoenix. Additionally, all 20 metro areas experienced year/year advances in January for the first time since 2006.

• The fall in foreclosure starts and the foreclosure inventory and the rise in the number of non-distressed home sales are encouraging signs of a housing market returning to health.

• New home sales have gotten off to a good start in 2013, rising 15.6% m/m to a four year high of 437,000 annualized. With inventory holding steady at just 150,000, supply conditions are very tight. New and existing inventory together is down 23% yr/yr and is the lowest in the last 25 years.

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-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% Tightening Standards

% Reporting Increased DemandSource: Federal Senior Loan Officer Survey

Commercial Real Estate Loans

• The loosening of lending standards on commercial real estate loans indicates that business investment in non-residential structures, such as offices and factories, will start to expand at a faster pace this year.

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-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Phoenix +23.2%

Metro 20 +8.1%

Minneapolis +12.1%

Washington, D.C. +5.9%

Los Angeles +12.1%

Dallas +7.0%

S&P/Case –Shiller Home Price Indices – Year/Year Change

Source: Case Shiller

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As of 1/31/13

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Unemployment Trends

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-1.3% -3.1%

-1.5%

-2.0%

-2.8%

-6.4%

-1.5%

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• The February employment report adds to the evidence of the ISM surveys that the recovery is gathering momentum. Non-farm payroll employment increased by a better than expected 236,000 in February, up from a 119,000 increase in January. The three-month average gain for payrolls is close to 200,000. Average weekly hours worked and average hourly earnings were both up, as well.

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125,000

127,000

129,000

131,000

133,000

135,000

137,000

139,000

141,000

143,000

145,000

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

100,000 per month 150,000 per month 200,000 per month

U.S. Total Employment (Thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The above shows how long it will take to get back to the peak employment levels of 2008 given various monthly growth rates of employment. The current 6-month growth rate of the labor force is 186,000 per month.

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98

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106

108

110

112

114

116

118

-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48Months from recession end

Inde

x, e

nd o

f rec

essio

n =

100

1973 - 1975

1981 - 1982

1990 - 1991

2001

2007 - 2009

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm Payrolls

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• Although the unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 7.7%, from 7.9%, there is no danger of the Fed calling an early halt to its asset buying. The Fed has pledged to keep its policy rate at near-zero until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5%.

• Based on current GDP growth projections, the unemployment rate is not expected to fall below 6.5% until at least 2015.

• The wider U6 unemployment rate declined to 14.3% from 14.4% . This wider measure includes people working part-time for economic reasons, and is an indicator of the continued slack in the labor market.

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Interest Rate Outlook

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Fed Funds Expectations

Investors are not looking for the Federal Reserve to increase short-term interest rates in any substantial manner for the next 2 – 3 years.

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Parting Thoughts • As expected, the economy ended the year 2012 on a very soft note due to uncertainty regarding the resolution

of the fiscal cliff. There were some positive surprises in the 4Q-12 numbers, however, that are leading to better statistics in 2013. Economic data in early 2013 indicates that the recovery appears to be strengthening. Despite the impact of the payroll tax hike and higher gasoline prices, 1Q-13 real consumption growth is likely to be close to 3%, the strongest quarterly growth in two years. The steady improvement in the employment market is supporting improved personal income growth which leads to better consumption and increased economic activity. The housing market is expected to continue to improve, the drag from deleveraging to decrease, and state government spending is likely to stabilize.

• Internationally, the risk of another crisis in Europe has decreased but is still a possibility. Oil prices could spike if there is a Mideast confrontation, and a further slowdown in China would have a negative global impact.

• It does appear, however, that equity markets around the world have priced in much of this uncertainty as the equity risk premium is near multi-decade highs.

• Due to these factors, we have recently increased our growth expectations for 1Q-13 to 3% annualized from 2%. We expect this growth rate to continue to improve as we move through the year.

• With inflation contained, the Fed can focus its efforts on reducing the still elevated unemployment rate. Expectations for moderate GDP growth over the next couple of years suggest that any decline in the unemployment rate will be very gradual.

• In the meantime, record low interest rates are forcing investors to search for yield by taking on more risk than they have historically. This scenario has typically resulted in unpleasant surprises for those who have not diversified adequately.

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These statements are the opinion of Marquette Asset Management, Inc. and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended to be used as the primary basis for investment decisions and should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor, as individual investment plans will vary based on investment objectives and a number of additional factors. Please remember that past performance is no indication of future results and this publication makes no representation concerning actual future performance of the markets or economy. Please consult with your tax preparer and/or legal counsel as appropriate.

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