Arizona Department of Transportation Extreme Weather ... · Arizona Department of Transportation...
Transcript of Arizona Department of Transportation Extreme Weather ... · Arizona Department of Transportation...
Arizona Department of Transportation Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment
February 6, 2015
Presentation to PAG Environmental Planning Advisory
Council
Kris Gade, PhD
ADOT Environmental Planning Group
ADOT Extreme Weather Pilot Study
• Arizona and FHWA initiatives
• Pilot study focus on biotic communities
• Summary of results
• How ADOT will use the results
Extreme Weather Studies in AZ
2012: ADOT’s Preliminary
Study
FHWA Framework
December 2012 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_
change/adaptation/resources_and_publications/vulnerability_assessment_framework/
19 FHWA Pilots for 2013-2014
Project Approach • Study corridor crosses several biomes
– Different transportation vulnerabilities
• Stressors
– Precipitation
– Temperatures
• Secondary impacts
– Wildfires
– Dust storms
– Runoff volumes (storms and post-fire)
– Heat sensitivity of infrastructure (pavement, etc)
Landscape Context • Biotic communities can
affect extreme weather risks to transportation
• Four groupings:
– Desert
– Grassland
– Chaparral
– Forest
Heat/cold sensitivity Heat/cold sensitivity Flooding/runoff Wildfire Dust storms Rockfall
Climate Stressors & Impacts
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme Temperature Days above 100°F
Extreme Temperature Average Daily Maximum
Average Daily Maximum (F)
Past 2040 2080
1950-1999 2025-2055 2065-2095
Desert 84 88 92
Grassland 76 80 84
Chaparral 74 78 82
Forest 69 73 76
Extreme Precipitation Magnitude of 100-Year (1%) Rainfall
Potential Effects A Note on Symbology
• Negative effects: Likely to exacerbate risks
• Neutral, not relevant
• Uncertain effects
• Positive effects: Likely to reduce risks
All else being equal, projected changes in stressor frequency and/or severity are estimated to have:
Extreme Heat
• Pavement deformation, thermal expansion
• Construction schedules and seasons
• Worker safety
• Stranded motorists
Example Climate Indicators • Days exceeding 100°F • Average Daily Maximum Temperature
Potential Effects Increase in extremely hot days/maximum temperatures
Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
Extreme Precipitation • Flooding/ Inundation
» Washouts
» Bridge scour
» Culvert damage
» Debris clogs drainage infrastructure (wildfires)
• Mudslides Example Climate Indicators • Magnitude of 100-year rainfall (24 hrs) • Magnitude of 50-year rainfall (24 hrs)
Potential Effects Change in magnitude of 100-year rainfall
Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
• Incidence/severity of:
– Washouts/erosion
– Scour
Lower confidence than for temperature projections
– Mudslides
– Disruptions
Wildfire • Second order effects:
floods, mudflows, landslides, bridge scour
» Reduced vegetative cover (increased runoff)
» Increased debris (greater risk of clogging drainage, channels)
• Operational disruptions
• Deterioration, minor damage to guardrail, pavements
Example Climate Indicators • Average Daily Maximum Temp • Average Seasonal Precipitation
(May-June-July-Aug)
• Aggravate flooding/ drainage failures
• Operational disruptions Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
Potential Effects Wildfire
How Will ADOT Use the Results? • Design standards
Justify use of larger design storm
• Transportation Asset Management Plan
Contribute to risk-based approach
• Strategic Highway Safety Plan
Weather-related incidents
Next Steps: Continued Partnering • Continue coordination with state, federal, and
university partners
• Increase coordination with local governments and MPOs (for detailed area assessments)
• Leverage existing tools with minimal development costs (e.g. USGS StreamStats)
Questions?
Contacts ADOT Project Manager
• Thor Anderson ([email protected], 602.712.4574)
ADOT Technical Contacts
• Kris Gade ([email protected], 602.292.0301)
• Steve Olmsted ([email protected], 602.712.6421)
• Charles Beck ([email protected], 602.712.8628)
Consultant
• Josh DeFlorio ([email protected])
FHWA Website http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/
Reserve Slides
Biotic Communities in the Project Corridor
Goals of pilot study
Data – Transportation Infrastructure Assets (ADOT)
• Feature Inventory System
• Bridge Rating System/NBI
• Culvert capacity data
• Roadside vegetation, stabilization, habitat
– Stressor Data and Models • Projections of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
• Land cover
• Hydrological modeling
• Dust storm models?
– Criticality • Economic importance
• Transportation alternatives
Scenarios: Transportation Parameters
• Sensitivity Thresholds
– Focus on extremes (e.g., 100-year rainfall)
– Exceedance Values (e.g., 3.5” of rainfall)
– Temporal Frames (e.g., 24 hours)
– Frequency/Recurrence (e.g., 1% chance)
• Analysis/horizon year(s)
– Long Range Planning (e.g., 2040)
– Asset lifespan (e.g., bridge, 50-75 years)